Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Maine: It's a Tie??!!

Public Policy Polling has released its Maine numbers today. And if they're to be believed, Question 1 is completely up in the air.

Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.

With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.

PPP says it can't get any closer. It was an automated (robodial) poll, so I guess it's to be expected that their numbers would be different from the live call polls' results. We can argue over whose method produces more accurate results, but ultimately all the polls point to a close race. No matter what, we have our work cut out for us.

And as PPP said, the race ultimately turns to turnout.

Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans
are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up
deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in

Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in
support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low
turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger
people get out to the polls and vote.

This is expected to be a low turnout election. And unfortuantely, Republicans and older voters have a history of dominating these low turnout special elections. We can't let history repeat itself this time. We need to help No on 1 turn out the votes to defeat the marriage ban!

The campaign still needs volunteers to help round up votes for marriage equality. If you're close enough to Maine and have enough time to take a little "road trip", why not consider driving for equality? And for all the rest of us who are too far away and/or too busy to go to Maine in person, we can still help by signing up to call for equality.

And of course, we can still help the campaign build up its "get out the vote" effort by funding it! The campaign still needs our support as they put TV and radio ads on the air, and as they go door to door all over the state to turn out the vote. Our support can go a long way and be the deciding factor in victory next month.

Election Day is drawing near. The poll numbers can't be any closer. Please do whatever you can to protect marriage equality in Maine and stop the forces of hatred from attacking any more LGBT families.

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