Color Us Unimpressed

They're here! They're here. Yep, they made it. However, their opponents did not.

Last night, State Senator Justin Jones (D-Enterprise) and Assembly Member Marilyn Dondero Loop (D-Spring Valley) were set to debate their Republican opponents in their respective State Senate races on Ralston Reports. They showed up... But their opponents did not.

Last night, State Senator Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) had the opportunity to disprove the critics who've been calling his hand-picked running mates "spineless" for taking his marching orders to hide from the general public. He had the chance to prove to everyone that he & his hand-picked running mates have nothing to hide. But instead, all we heard from the reclusive Republicans was this.



Oh, and this. No really, Roberson apparently believes it's OK to leak internal poll numbers in lieu of actually appearing in public to answer questions from constituents. Does he actually expect us to believe it's OK for him and his hand-picked running mates to avoid public contact because his hand-picked running mates are "WINNING!!!"?

Not so fast. That poll is from Tarrance Group. Oh, yes. That's right. This poll is from the same firm that claimed Meg Whitman (R) was tied with Jerry Brown in the 2010 California Governor race (she ended up losing by 13%), and that Carly Fiorina (R) was tied with Barbara Boxer (D) in California's US Senate race that year (Fiorina ended up losing by 10%). In October 2012, Tarrance Group notoriously released a poll showing Danny Tarkanian (R) clobbering Steven Horsford (D) by 10% in NV-04 (Tark ended up losing by 8%). In addition, Tarrance released polls showing Republicans close behind or ahead in House races in California, Iowa, and New York... And those races were all won by Democrats in November 2012.

So Senator Roberson shouldn't be gloating right now. Even if "We predict 52-47 ROMNEY!!!" Tarrance Group had a decent reputation, it's never acceptable to substitute poll numbers for debate appearances. But since Roberson can't even release trustworthy poll numbers in lieu of releasing his hand-picked running mates, all we have to say is this. Sorry, but that is not how to properly remove a wig during a lip sync.

This Shouldn't Be a Tough Call.

Last week, we tried to warn them. If Republicans in Congress are truly determined to kill comprehensive immigration reform (CIR), they must be prepared to live with the consequences. And now, we have our first sign of the consequences ahead.

Jon Ralston caught wind yesterday of a new Magellan poll showing strong support among voters of Congressional District 3 for CIR... And voters of Congressional District 2. NV-03 voters support the bipartisan Senate CIR bill 68-30, while NV-02 voters support it by a margin of 64-33. And pluralities in both districts say they'll think more highly of their respective Representatives if they pass CIR.

So what do they think of their respective Representatives now? In NV-02, Mark Amodei sports an OK 42-33 favorability rating. But in NV-03, Joe Heck has fallen underwater in NV-03. Here, Heck's favorability rating is 41-45. Ouch.

This actually comes on the heels of a PPP poll released earlier this month that showed Rep. Heck barely ahead of a Democratic challenger as anger was building against the most recent G-O-TEA manufactured crisis. As we've discussed before, most Americans want a government that works. Yet this month, we've seen anything but that.

One would think the G-O-TEA's EPIC FAIL of a Shutdown Sh**fest would light a fire under enough @sses to accomplish something, anything, so Republicans can put this FAIL Whale of a month behind them. However, that's not happening. Instead, many Republicans seem all too happy to kill reform.

And they wonder why their poll numbers suck? This is why. Millions of American families, businesses, and workers demand solutions. Yet instead of providing solutions, the G-O-TEA hardliners just want to create more problems with their seemingly endless manufactured crises. And to make matters even worse, Republican "leaders" are all too willing much too often to indulge in G-O-TEA delusions of grandeur.

Reps. Heck and Amodei may be backbenchers, but they're not completely powerless. If they want CIR, they can step forward and demand it. Other Republicans did so this month in calling for an end to the manufactured crisis, and it worked last week when the federal government finally reopened.

And ultimately, their political future may very well depend on the fate of CIR. Does Rep. Heck want to serve another term? And does Rep. Amodei want to serve in the majority? This shouldn't be a tough call.

So What's the Excuse Now?

Remember when we discussed the possible end of "deja vu politics as usual" in Carson City? Well, that day may truly be arriving soon. The new RAN/POS poll offers some surprising hope for future tax reform.

Despite opposition among business groups and in the Legislature, the public widely supports the margins tax, according to a new poll by the Retailers Association of Nevada.

The survey, by well-known national pollster Glen Bolger, was conducted February 16-18, 2013, among 500 likely voters, with 125 cell phone interviews, and has a margin of error of +4.38%.

Among the findings, which crossed a wide spectrum of issues (and you can see details in the attachment here):

Margins tax: 58-39, support (but people are divided about the salutary impact vs. loss of jobs--see details in attachment)

Now keep in mind that POS is a Republican affiliated pollster. And it's been doing this poll for a conservative business lobbying outfit. That makes these numbers even more eye popping. Glen Bolger actually tested the opposition's messaging. And despite that, The Education Initiative still leads 58-39!

This just goes to show how out of touch legislators may be with their own constituents. Instead of pursuing regressive, "revenue-neutral" nonsense, why not look at something that the public supports and the state needs? As we discussed yesterday, Nevada needs a more diversified economy. Yet that won't ever happen if we don't have sufficient public infrastructure. Something must change.

The Education Initiative offers that change by asking the largest corporations doing business here to pay something closer to their fair share. That, in turn, will provide at least $800,000,000 more for K-12 schools. And that, in turn, will provide a critical investment in building a more stable and sustainable economy here.

So what are legislators waiting for? At least if they won't pass it, "We the People" will have our own opportunity to do so next year.

NV-Sen: Maybe "Newspaper" Can't Save Heller?

Another day, another crazy "newspaper poll". Today, the "newspaper" is claiming Dean Heller has taken a 6% lead overall in the Senate race... And that he's doing so because he's supposedly leading (??!!) among Latino voters and is running close in Clark County. Come on, now. You know what's coming next.



Here's what Ralston says.

"Newspaper" shows Heller up 6. Also: He's winning Latinos by 8, indies by 25 and close in Clark. Welcome 2 fantasyland: http://t.co/V5ZEL0KC

And here's what I say. Again, most public pollsters have a bad habit of undersampling likely Democratic voters. And in particular, Survey USA (the company the "newspaper" now uses for polling) is notorious for paying no interest whatsoever in ensuring it has the proper demographics. There's really no reason to whip into a fury over lousy polls.

It seems like Shelley Berkley herself is not. Instead, yesterday she met with The Las Vegas Sun editorial board to discuss why she believes she has what it takes to serve as one of Nevada's US Senators.

Berkley also took Heller to task for supporting a Republican-backed budget that would reconfigure Medicare, turning the program into a subsidy that Democrats have charged is a voucher program for anyone under age 55.

“That’s not Medicare,” Berkley said. “It’s some version of health care for older Americans, but it’s not Medicare.”

Heller, who has not responded to invitations to address the Sun’s editorial board, has said he was proud of his two votes for the budget in question, commonly referred to as the “Ryan budget” after the congressman and now-vice presidential candidate who wrote it. He has also argued that the changes to Medicare within it are necessary to the long-term sustainability of the program, and do not upset the fundamental object and purpose of the Medicare program.

Berkley listed her positions on energy development (she’s in favor of investing in renewables), small business (she wants to keep their taxes low) and tourism promotion (she wants more visa waivers and travel tax credits) as her biggest selling points for improving the economy in Nevada. [...]

On immigration, Berkley repeated that she would not vote in favor of a compromise bill that did not include a pathway to citizenship for certain undocumented immigrants.

There you have it. This is honestly another big reason why I doubt Heller is doing all that well here in Southern Nevada. He doesn't even want to meet with the editoral board of the one legitimate newspaper in this town! In addition, he's been skipping candidate forums and other opportunities for Clark County voters to meet him. And, of course, he's been struggling as of late to hide his "tea party" sympathies from voters.



Remember this. It's far more insightful than what we're seeing in that other "newspaper" today.

11:00 AM UPDATE:

Here's what Ralston just caught.

I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today.

Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. [...]

All about turnout now and Mellman's models are as good as they get in Nevada.

Yep, yep, yep. The top lines are 41% Berkley (D) & 38% Heller (R) with 5% for the IAP candidate and 11% undecided. While I suspect the IAP candidate may not actually get that high of a vote count come November 6, on the other hand we're talking about a Mark Mellman poll here. He nailed the NV-Sen 2010 results when almost every other pollster choked. This shouldn't be taken lightly.

The Winning Hand

So folks in Lake Las Vegas didn't see the President yesterday...



But these fortunate souls did.

He didn’t look like the average pizza deliveryman.

Wearing tan slacks and a dress shirt — sleeves rolled up, of course — President Barack Obama sauntered into a Henderson field office for his campaign Monday afternoon, clutching six boxes of Settebello pizza. [...]

It’s a safe bet Henderson resident Marcy Ramirez is up for the challenge [of the final month of the campaign]. The campaign volunteer endured a car wreck two days ago while out registering voters. Then someone stole an Obama-Biden sign from her front yard.

“You just wake up and go, ‘Where am I going (today)?’” she said.

Last month, Ramirez met Obama during a rally at Cashman Center. This time was more serendipitous: She stopped by the Henderson field office to drop off some campaign labels.

And, as luck would have it, Ramirez even had a large photo of Obama with her — perfect for the president’s John Hancock.

“I said, ‘You’re going to sign my picture, right?’” she said. “He said, ‘Yes, yes, of course I am.’”

Wow. What a journey. And what a fortuitous experience for those OFA volunteers. It's amazing to think of what's happened in that office in the last six months.

And it must have been amazing for Mr. President to think of what's happened here in Nevada just since the start of this year. Who would have ever expected President Obama to take a whopping 52-42 lead over Mitt Romney in a Republican friendly (but nonetheless reputable) poll? And who would have ever expected voter registration to change the dynamic this much in Democrats' favor? Who would have ever expected the kind of playing field that we have now? Wow.

OK, so the election is still not over yet. Much can still change. But then again as we near the end, perhaps there's not enough time left for all that much change. Let's face it, at this point we are finally starting to see who has the winning hand and why.

NV-Sen: #GameOver for Romney AND Heller?

Just when it seemed like the news couldn't get any better for Nevada Democrats, Jon Ralston had even more good news this morning.

President Obama is stretching his lead to 9 percentage points in Nevada and Rep. Shelley Berkley is up 4 over Sen. Dean Heller in a new Public Policy Polling survey taken for the League of Conservation Voters.

The survey, which you can see below and was taken last week of 501 likley voters, shows Obama up 52-43 and Berkley up 48-44. Those numbers are even greater for the president than other public polls and Berkley's lead will come as a surprise considering other results.

At first, this may be surprising. But when one remembers what's been happening in the field, it all makes more sense.

We can also better understand why Dean Heller has been so dour lately. While the G-O-TEA base continues to turn on Romney, Dean Heller is running into increasing trouble because his political and ideological kinship to Romney is turning off Nonpartisan voters. And with the Republican field effort increasingly looking like a sad joke, it's an open question as to whether Team Nevada really has the resources to turn out enough Romney & Heller voters to even keep the election all that close here in Nevada.

Might this be a sign of the beginning of the end for the Nevada GOP? If Nevada Democrats keep up their work in the field, it may very well be.

NV-04: "Newspaper" Strikes Yet Again!

Last Friday, Las Vegas' local "newspaper" embarrassed itself again with a horribly flawed "poll" showing an implausible "victory" scenario for Joe Heck. Today, the "newspaper" has a new NV-04 "poll" showing Danny Tarkanian leading Steven Horsford 45-42.

Here's why the "newspaper" is wrong (yet again!). Just like last week's results, Survey USA's internals make absolutely no sense. Believe it or not, this "poll" claims Baby Tark is winning Latino voters by 8! Shockingly, it also claims Baby Tark is winning with young voters and urban voters, and that he's winning 13% of African-American voters. Sorry, but this is simply not happening.

The sample also skews older and more male than the final electorate will probably be, especially since this is also a Presidential Election. All in all, this just looks incredibly sloppy and totally unbelievable. And what I said last week still stands today.

So why did this happen? Well, when a "newspaper" becomes accustomed to accepting sloppy "reporting", this is the result. Believe it or not, its polls were actually starting to make sense when it teamed up with UNLV's polling institute. It's a shame that the "newspaper" actually dumped a solid local outfit for this garbage.

It's one thing for the "newspaper" to continually attack Steven Horsford in its editorial page. But when it breathlessly copies from Republican press releases and put those smears in the news section, that's simply not journalism. And when that same "newspaper" publishes incredibly flawed "polls" with horridly bad samples, that's just a bad joke.

So Health Care Reform Really Isn't a Bad Thing?

Earlier this morning, I received a notice from PLAN that they intend to join Lambda Legal and 130+ other health care and HIV patients' advocacy groups in supporting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in federal court.

"The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act expands Medicaid coverage, eliminates preexisting condition exclusions and ends lifetime caps on coverage. In 2006 Massachusetts passed a similar health care law with the same protections and a minimum coverage mandate. The state saw a 37% decrease in HIV infections, while the nation only saw a decrease of 8%. Common sense reforms found in the ACA will make us an even better, stronger nation and will help with some of the heavy lifting needed to finally eliminate the scourge of HIV/AIDS." -Bob Fulkerson, Executive Director of PLAN

In March of 2010, the ACA was signed into law, reforming aspects of the private health insurance industry and expanding access to health insurance for millions of Americans. The constitutionality of the law was immediately challenged in federal court in multiple jurisdictions. In January, 2012 Lambda Legal filed a friend-of-the-court brief highlighting the crucial link between the ACA and the ability to curtail the domestic HIV/AIDS epidemic. The United States Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in several cases challenging the constitutionality of the law the week of March 26, 2012.

PLAN has joined Lambda Legal in supporting the federal government’s position that the ACA’s minimum coverage requirement (also known as the individual mandate) is constitutional under the Commerce Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clause. [...]

When the ACA was enacted, only 17% of Americans with HIV had private health insurance. In the individual insurance market, people living with HIV are generally considered “uninsurable” and are routinely rejected when they apply for coverage because they have a pre-existing condition. Even when these individuals find an insurance company to cover them, most states have no rating limits, allowing insurers to charge prohibitively expensive premiums. The ACA is designed to address this problem by eliminating pre-existing condition exclusions and requiring that everyone acquire health insurance.

This is just another feature of ACA that can help more Nevadans access the health care we need. Perhaps we'll need to get used to seeing this video more often.



But in case you really want to read the benefits of ACA for yourself, I can pull out the full list as well.

A Stronger Health Care System for Nevada:

518,000 residents who are uninsured and 132,000 residents who have individual market insurance will gain access to affordable coverage.
311,000 residents will qualify for premium tax credits to help them purchase health coverage.
328,000 seniors will receive free preventive services and 58,200 seniors will have their drug costs in the Medicare Part D “donut hole” covered over time.
30,300 small businesses will be eligible for tax credits for premiums.
9,400 young adults will be eligible for quality affordable coverage through their parents

Premium Tax Credits to Expand Private Insurance Coverage in Nevada:

Reform will provide $5 billion in premium tax credits and cost-sharing tax credits for residents in Nevada from 2014 to 2019 to purchase private health insurance.

Reduced Premiums:

Health insurance reform will lower premiums in the nongroup market by 14 to 20% for the same benefits – premium savings of $1,380 to $1,970 for a family in Nevada.

Increased Medicaid Support:

The Federal government will fully fund the coverage expansion for the first three years of the policy, and continue substantial support, paying for 90% of costs after 2020, compared to Nevada’s current FMAP of 50.2%.
In total, Nevada could receive $3.6 billion more dollars in federal funds for Medicaid as a result of the expansion from 2014 to 2019.

Improved Value for Medicare Advantage:

The 228,000 seniors in Nevada who are not enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan will no longer cross subsidize these private plans, saving $45 in premium costs per year.
The proposal will gradually move toward a fair payment system that rewards performance.

This all comes down to providing more choices, more affordable options, and more comprehensive care for more Americans.



OK, and there's something else. Apparently, it's also reducing the federal budget deficit by reducing health care costs! And funny enough, for all the G-O-TEA whining about the budget deficit, they're the ones who want to increase deficit spending by repealing ACA.

What's really interesting is that before ACA became law, Massachusetts passed comprehensive health care reform that would later become the foundation of ACA. Remember who was Massachsetts' Governor when that happened? So why won't Mitt Romney boast about his success in implementing health care reform before the rest of the country caught on?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I'm just wondering how "Romneycare" is great while "Obamacare" isn't when the only difference between the two (other than ACA being a federal law) is that ACA is actually paid for. Will Mitt Romney's BFFs, Dean Heller and Joe Heck, ever get around to explaining that? And will Brian Sandoval and Michael Roberson ever explain why Nevada patients and small businesses would benefit from higher health insurance costs and less beneficial insurance coverage? Even prominent conservative legal scholars believe ACA is constitutional, so what's the point of suing to take away people's health care?

Again, here's how Nevadans benefit from ACA.

# Health care insurance corporations must provide preventive health care services at no cost in the plans they market to customers. (Mammograms, prostate cancer screening, etc.)

# Health insurance corporations may no longer deny coverage to youngsters under the age of 19 for “pre-existing” conditions.

# Health insurance corporations may no longer rescind coverage because a person made an honest mistake on an application.

# We have the right to choose the doctor we want from our plan’s network or seek emergency care at a hospital outside of our health plan’s network.

# Health insurance corporations may no longer offer plans with lifetime limits on coverage.

# The reforms require that health care insurance corporations spend at least 80% of their premium dollars on actual health care.

# The law requires that health care insurance providers be able to justify any rate increase of more than 10%.

So why again do we want this law repealed? I suspect the new Pew Research Center poll demonstrates why so many Republicans are afraid to talk about the real facts on health care reform. As Americans learn more about the actual benefits of ACA, both approval of the new law and support for President Obama rises. Apparently as time goes by, we're realizing that health care reform really isn't a bad thing.

Did Santa Come Early (for Nevada Democrats)?

In case you were wondering, our 10 of 11 series will continue after Christmas. Don't worry about that. But in the mean time, I just have to interrupt our reminiscing to show you the 8 News Now/R-J UNLV poll that's giving Nevada Republicans "the vapors". (Trust me, we'll tie it all together at the end of this diary!)

President Barack Obama would handily defeat any of the Republican presidential candidates in Nevada if the election were held now, according to an 8 News Now/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted by UNLV's Cannon Survey Center.

With a sample size of 600 registered voters and a 4 percent margin of error, Democrat Obama would defeat his closest rival, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 45.7 percent to 39.8 percent.

In a presidential caucus, Republicans favor Romney but his closest foe, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, trails within the 6.5 percent margin of error in that particular contest. This result reflects registered voters, but not likely caucus-goers.

The telephone poll, conducted Dec. 12 through Dec. 20, had Obama topping Texas Congressman Ron Paul 45.4 percent to 35.7 percent, Gingrich 47.3 to 35.4, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 49.3 to 30.9, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman 48.8 to 30.1, Texas Gov. Rick Perry 50.8 to 31.1 and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 50.2 to 27.1.

Whoops. I guess Americans really are getting tired of "tea party" madness... And realizing that sanity really is a good thing. Hell, the G-O-TEA is now turning voters AWAY (especially if they're gay or not super-rich)!



But wait, it gets worse for Nevada Republicans. It also turns out that Dean Heller isn't all that popular, either.

Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley would defeat Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a nail-biter to represent Nevada in the U.S. Senate if the election were held now, according to an 8 News Now/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll conducted by UNLV's Cannon Survey Center.

The poll of 600 registered Nevada voters showed Berkley edging Heller 44.4 percent to 43.2 percent. But the contest, which will be decided in the November 2012 general election, is well within the poll's 4 percent margin of error. The telephone poll was conducted Dec. 12 through Dec. 20.

Now Heller isn't doing as poorly as Romney-Gingrich-Paul at the top of the ticket, but he's nonetheless in real danger. As we noted on Tuesday, he's fallen from a double digit lead to a tie... And now, perhaps falling behind Shelley Berkley in the US Senate race. Hmmm, I wonder why?



Apparently, Nevadans are smart enough to realize his unbalanced nonsense means less work and more suffering. And they're smart enough to know that the source of Washington's problems lies on Capitol Hill (not The White House). So maybe 2012 won't bring the G-O-TEA another "Red Tide" after all? And in the mean time, Nevada Democrats should probably enjoy these nice stocking stuffers from Santa Claus... Then work their behinds off in 2012 to really make it come true.

NV-Sen: Haven't We Seen This Before?

The poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was taken June 11-14 by Mark Mellman, who is also Shelley Berkley's pollster. Before the partisans discount it (42-37):

1. Mellman knows Nevada. His surveys for Harry Reid in 2010 were unerring.

2. The results are not that surprising and virtually mirror what he found in March.

3. Appointed Sen. Dean Heller's negatives are up a bit, thanks to the Democratic pounding. But he has lost only a statistically insignificant one point and still a lot of undecideds this far out.

Ralston caught wind of this, and now everyone is talking. What does this mean? Do internal polls matter?

Remember this. When Harry Reid's campaign looked for polling to base targeting and messaging decisions upon, it didn't want to pay for fluff. That's why it went with the best, and Mellman is among the best here.

CNN, Razzy, and the others, OTOH, just wanted something to show the on-lookers from elsewhere, and they didn't bother paying attention to the rules to getting good Nevada results. That's why they all showed Angle slightly ahead last October, and that's why they all ended up with egg in their faces last November.

Just remember that as all the pundits now try to spin this poll's results.

Majority for Marriage (Equality)? Gallup Says Yes!

Now isn't this a pleasant surprise to wake up to!

For the first time in Gallup's tracking of the issue, a majority of Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The increase since last year came exclusively among political independents and Democrats. Republicans' views did not change.

These results are based on Gallup's May 5-8 Values and Beliefs poll, which has tracked attitudes toward legalizing same-sex marriage each year since 2004, adding to Gallup's initial polling on the topic in 1996 and 1999.

This year's nine-point increase in support for same-sex marriage is the largest year-to-year shift yet measured over this time period. Two-thirds of Americans were opposed to legalized same-sex marriage in 1996, with 27% in favor. By 2004, support had risen to 42% and, despite some fluctuations from year to year, stayed at roughly that level through last year.

It's interesting to look at the crosstabs here to see how attitudes are changing. It's really looking like young voters are shifting the dynamics, and that "the gender gap" is narrowing as men's support for marriage equality is catching up to women's.

But at the same time, the partisan divide looks greater than ever. Even though there were gains for equality across the ideological spectrum, Republican support for marriage equality remained frozen (at 28%) as Democratic support rose 13% (from 56% to 69%) and nonpartisan support rose 10% (from 49% to 59%). Frankly, it's saddening to see that hatred and bigotry are still being used successfully as "culture war" "wedge issues" in the GOP.

But overall, this goes to show that much progress is being made in the beautiful struggle for LGBTQ civil rights, and that our elected representatives can't ignore what's becoming the will of the people for too much longer.

NV-Sen: Boom Goes the Backfire?

Ha. Ha. It looks like Brian Sandoval's sweetheart back room deal with Dean Heller continues to backfire on them. PPP just polled Nevada again, and Dean Heller's lead in the Senate race (according to them) dropped from 13% to just 4%. Why? There are a number of factors, but here's something in particular to watch.

One thing that may end up actually hurting Heller in the long run is being appointed to the Senate vacancy created by the early resignation of John Ensign. 53% of voters think that Ensign's seat should be filled by a special election, compared to only 44% who think Brian Sandoval should appoint Ensign's replacement. Democrats will certainly try to make a Heller appointment smell bad and these numbers suggest that they have the public behind them in their opposition to Sandoval giving Heller a head start.

Heh. Serves them right.

Sandoval really thought this blatant snubbing of Nevadans would be glossed over as just another instance of "politics as usual". However, so far it looks like we the people want to take a closer look and ask why Dean Heller deserves a "head start" in next year's Senate election, and why we the people should be forced to pay for a special election to replace Heller exactly when Sandoval wants to slash public education to death, force elderly & disabled Nevadans onto the streets, and endanger Nevada's fragile economic recovery.

What, are Carson City political games more important than the lives of real Nevadans? Is this what Brian Sandoval meant by "shared sacrifice"? And is this just another instance of Dean Heller practicing something far different from what he preaches? Is it more important to cheat against Shelley Berkley than to actually focus on what their respective jobs are supposed to be?

Oh, and one more thing: Despite what some might say, PPP's results may be too good to be true... For Republicans! Mark Mellman was among the very few to get Nevada right last fall, and that's mainly because he figured out the secrets of polling Nevada. So when he shows Shelley Berkley ahead by 4%, those numbers can be taken to the bank. Most public pollsters are notorious for undersampling Latinos, young voters, and other demographic groups that usually vote Democratic here in Nevada, and they often don't get Clark County right. That's why Republicans shouldn't take too much comfort in any public pollster (especially one that got Nevada wrong these last two cycles) showing Dean Heller with a minuscule 4% lead.

Just saying. Heh. ;-)

Majority for Marriage (Equality)?

I missed this a little earlier, but it's really intriguing me now.

In the [new CNN] poll, 51% of adult Americans said they thought same sex marriages should be recognized by law, while 47% said they should not. That's a significant reversal from the same poll two years ago when Americans opposed same sex marriage by a 10-point spread, with 44% in favor and 54% against.

It's the second time in as many months that a pollster has for the first time found majority support for legalizing same sex marriage. In March, a Washington Post/ABC News poll showed that 53% of adults supported legalizing same sex marriage, while 44% opposed it.

The finding comes just months after the Obama administration announced that it would no longer defend the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) -- the law that prohibits the federal government from recognizing same sex marriages -- in court. Republicans, including some potential presidential candidates like Mike Huckabee, decried that decision, saying Obama was going against public opinion. But recent polls show Americans are steadily growing more supportive of legal recognition for same sex couples.

Wow. Just wow. This seems to echo what's been happening in other countries as legal, civil marriage equality has become more common.

But even as more and more Americans express support for marriage equality, House Republicans want to waste up to $500,000 of our tax dollars to pay George Bush's last Solicitor General (and his legal firm) $520 per hour to defend DOMA in court! How further out of touch can they get? DOMA denies many thousands of legally married couples the federal rights and responsibilities afforded to other spouses simply because they're gay and lesbian couples.

It seems as more Americans become more familiar with their fellow Americans who happen to be LGBTQ, they understand that we are indeed all created equal, and that we all deserve equal rights under the law. But even though "we the people" may get it, many in Congress don't. John Boehner and fellow House Republicans would rather waste our tax dollars to defend unconstitutional discrimination in court than do anything sane or relevant.

Hopefully, this groundswell of support for fuller LGBTQ equality will better materialize next year at the polls.

"Newspaper's" Heads Explode, Dina Titus Slightly Expands Lead

The local "newspaper" of questionable repute already freaked out when Harry Reid slightly increased his lead in their latest poll, but this REALLY got their heads exploding! Dina Titus just moved to a 47-43 lead against Joe Heck!

And by the way KLAS-8 News Now just released the internals of NV-03 and NV-Sen, so we have a better view of what's actually happening:

- Dina now has a 46-41 net positive favorable opinion with 13% neutral, so there's still some wiggle room.

- Heck is also still in positive territory with 39-31 favorability, but that 31% unfavorable rating is a sharp rise from a month ago.

- Both candidates seem to be holding their own on party loyalists, but Heck is leading 49-39 among Independents while Dina has a slightly better grasp on Democrats (84-7) than Heck does among Republicans (82-9).

Again, I won't even get into the "economic questions", as those look like pure crap. Still, it just tickles me to see The R-J go into full meltdown whenever their preferred candidate can't even win in their poll.

New "Newspaper" Poll Tries to Hide Obvious...

But it's not too hard to look past the rhetorical waste and see what happened in the "newspaper's" newest poll. Despite what looks like "push polling" on the economic questions asked, Harry Reid bumped up slightly to a 46-44 lead over Sharron Angle.

I don't even want to get into the questions on the economy, since again they look like pure crap. And I'm not yet seeing much of anything in terms of internals, so I guess we'll have to wait for KLAS to post more complete results, with the internals and without the teabagger BS...

So All Sharrontology's Big Spending Leads to This?

(UPDATE: Media Matters debunks Sharrontology's latest lying ads and exposes her campaign yet again for trying to make us forget reality.)

Virtually no change in this week's R-J poll! And hidden behind the top lines (Reid 45, Angle 44) are some deeply disturbing numbers for Sharrontology. 66% of Angle voters say they'd prefer another Republican taking her place in the general election, as opposed to just 18% of Reid voters who say they'd prefer another Democrat in his place in the general. Now for someone hoping to capitalize on "Reid's unpopularity", it doesn't help that one's own BASE is far from excited and wondering if it was a mistake to nominate one.

I guess the more Republicans learn about Sharron Angle, the less they like about their own nominee.





I guess they're starting to realize just how extreme she is. Clearly, we still have a lot of work to do in explaining why Sharrontology's radical right extremism is not worth the gamble. However, Nevada voters aren't stupid and it seems all of her spending, all of Baby Tark's antics, and all of Karl Rove's dirty tricks can't buy the election for Sharrontology.

Sharrontology STILL Spinning Out of Control

This is the new ad Harry Reid is using against Sharron Angle. Unlike that EPIC FAIL of a hit piece I mentioned earlier, this one uses facts, targets the intended voters well, has a clear message, and is owned up to by Reid.

Oh, and did I mention it's all true?

Angle hammered the escrow fund a month ago, declaring that "Government shouldn't be doing that to a private company" and calling it a "slush fund." She then quickly retracted the comment, bluntly stating that she was "incorrect" to call it a slush fund. But that retraction isn't letting her off the hook as far as political attacks are concerned.

Really? Does Sharrontology Obtuse Angle really believe we Nevadans love the idea of letting BP off the hook as The Gulf has become an ecological nightmare, destroying not just the land, but also the livelihood of many thousands of people?

Now wonder why her stunning political collapse continues.

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Nevada Senate race gives Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid a narrow lead over his Republican challenger, former state Rep. Sharron Angle -- and a really big lead if turnout were to be higher than currently expected.

The numbers, among likely voters: Reid 48%, Angle 44%. There is no prior Reuters/Ipsos poll for direct comparison. The TPM Poll Averagegives Reid a lead of 45.1%-42.7%.

The kicker: Among the larger pool of registered voters, Reid leads by a phenomenal 52%-36%. So clearly, the job for Dem groups is to mobilize voters for Reid -- and against Angle's right-wing positions.

Yes, it is. If we don't want an absolute lunatic "representing" us, we have to get out and vote... And encourage all our friends, family, and neighbors to do the same! After all, why would we want someone who asks for our vote, then votes against our best interest as she continues raking in the contributions from her "Tea Party, Inc." BFFs?

And she thinks a new campaign spokesperson from the lovely FAILs that were Rudy Giuliani's "Noun, Verb, and 9/11" presidential campaign and Steve Poizner's "forget that I sold myself as a moderate, I'm now a conservative tea partier!" California Gubernatorial campaign will save her? Ay, yay, yay...

NV-Gov: First Sharrontology, Now "Gibbons-Lite" Brian?

Oh, fun. Now our Gubernatorial election gets interesting...

A new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada governor's race shows Republican Brian Sandoval 10 points ahead of Democrat Rory Reid, but Reid appears to be gaining some ground. Sandoval's 50%-40% lead is narrower than the commanding 21-point lead he had in Rasmussen's previous poll from July 12.

Other recent polls have shown Reid -- the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's also up for reelection in Nevada -- far behind Sandoval, a former federal judge. The last surveys of the contest from PPP and Mason-Dixon both showed Sandoval up 14 points.

By the way, this is the same Razzy poll that actually showed Harry Reid leading "Scary Sharry" for the first time, so this must really stink for the Nevada GOoP!

Well, it doesn't help when Brian Sandoval insults many hundreds of thousands of Nevadans... Including his own family!

All of a sudden, it seems Brian Sandoval is Hispanic. How curious! The saying that you never know where life will take you is definitely true. In fact, on his life journey, Sandoval must have taken a fall, lost his memory and woken up believing what his campaign advisors are telling him -- “you’re Hispanic.” [...]

As for Sandoval, many people were left with their mouths wide open (including this columnist) with the candidate’s commercial recently launched on Hispanic television, which literally says, “With your help, Brian Sandoval can become the first Hispanic Governor in the history of Nevada.” It took a few minutes for me to recover after hearing that for the first time. I couldn’t believe it. Not even Bush, in his best moments of stuttering and muddled thinking, had shocked me as much. I thought it was one of his opponent’s commercials, or maybe it was meant to be ironic. But no, it wasn’t part of the Democratic strategy, or a parody; it seemed like a bad joke, but it was real [...]

Before he launched such an affirmation on television, his campaign must have psychologically prepared him so he wouldn’t suffer some sort of trauma upon seeing himself identified as Hispanic. It wasn’t long ago that he said in an interview on Univision that he vehemently supported Arizona’s anti-immigrant law. In reference to the same law, he was asked how he would feel if he his children were stopped in the street and asked for their papers. He answered, with a note of pride in his voice, “my children don’t look Hispanic.”

So Brian Sandoval is now ashamed of his own heritage? And he thinks he can get away with exploiting the Latin@ community by asking for their votes in front of them, but embracing anti-immigrant xenophobia when he thinks we're not looking? Ridiculous.

As usual, Brian Sandoval flip-flops and tries to be everything to everyone. If you're "Hispanic", he's your hombre! If you're anti-immigrant, he also hates brown people and is glad his kids don't look brown. If you're queer, he supports your equal rights. If you're a homophobe, he believes in the "sanctity of marriage" (even Gibbons'? Ensign's?). If you're concerned about education, he says his plan is better than Rory's. But if you're a teabagger, he promises not to raise taxes or deal with those icky unions.

I guess all Brian's lies are finally catching up with him...





And no matter what Sandoval tries to do to deflect criticism to Rory Reid, he can't hide from the fact that he has nothing to offer... On education, on jobs, on Nevada's future. All we see is empty rhetoric. I guess he's been listening to Sharron Angle too often...

KLAS/R-J/M-D Poll: Whoops, The People Aren't Buying Sharrontology

So Sharrontology Obtuse Angle has been on a rampage lately, saying God chose her to run, saying the people are on her side, saying "big bad Harry Reid" has to go... In addition to her usual lunacy of letting CityCenter fail, privatizing and eliminating Social Security, repealing health care reform, and much more. So how has it worked out? Now, we finally have a better idea... And now, there's someone credible cosponsoring The R-J's poll as well!

A poll commissioned by 8 News NOW and the Las Vegas Review Journal has Nevada Senator Harry Reid leading Republican candidate Sharron Angle.

The poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research was released in Friday's edition of the Review Journal.

The poll asked residents in Nevada who they would vote for if the election were held today. Forty-four-percent of respondents said they would vote for Reid. Thirty-seven-percent said Sharron Angle. Four-percent said they would vote for someone else. Five-percent said none of the candidates. Ten-percent remain undecided.

So what happened? This!



And ultimately this...

Actually, one of our Clark County Commissioners summed it up best...

Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani told the crowd: “Sharron Angle would not have lifted a finger to help any one of you ... If it’s not your job to create jobs, what the hell is your job?”

Oh yes, that's right. While Reid has worked hard to bring Recovery Act funds to Nevada, bring more renewable energy projects here, and prevent the collapse of Las Vegas' tourism industry...

Sharron Angle doesn't believe it's her job to ensure we have jobs.


Yep, that's right. If Sharrontology had her way, some 22,000 workers at CityCenter, along with many thousands more MGM Resorts workers, would likely be out of work.



In fact, one of these workers, Penny Webster, spoke and reminded us just exactly what the stakes are in this election.

"If Sharron Angle had her way, I would not have my job today. [...] Thanks to Harry Reid, I have a job".

Whoops, indeed. People here in Nevada are hurting. And they're angry. But even though they're angry, they're also looking for someone with real solutions.

Of course, we all know Sharron Angle doesn't have any real solutions... Just real batsh*t crazy.



And the man from Searchlight smiles on... And does what he does best, quietly making sure Nevada gets back to work. ;-)

NV-Sen: Friday Snippets & Quick Hits... UPDATED!

OK, I'm on my way out and I can't spend too much time blogging this morning. Still, let me go through some of the top Senate race stories I'm following today and into the weekend.

- No matter how the paper that shall not be named tries to spin it, Harry Reid is looking stronger these days while all the GOoPers are faltering. Obtuse Angle slips into a 3% deficit against Reid in the paper's "poll", while Suzy Lowdown holds a 3% lead within the margin of error and Lil' Tark Shark holds a tiny 1% lead even further within the margin of error. And remember, paper/Mason-Dixon polls typically skew 5-10% more Republican than the more accurate polls. (Remember when they said Obama & McCain were tied in late October just before Obama won Nevada by 12.5% in November 2008?)

- That same "paper that shall not be named" "poll" also shows Suzy Lowdown with a 1% lead deep within the margin of error against Obtuse Angle in the GOoP primary, with Lil' Tark Shark only 7% behind Lowdown. So yet again, we see that Suzy Lowdown may not even win the primary!

- Today's Sun exposes some more of Suzy Lowdown's abysmal business record. For someone who talks plenty about "creating jobs", Ms. Suzy seems to have a hard time actually doing that at Archon. However, here's one thing we should give her credit for excelling at: making sure she and the hubby get their bonus checks (regardless of whether they have to fire more workers)!

- Today's Sun also has a doozy on Baby Tark's hot mess of a land foreclosure here in Henderson. He says he was caught in a bad deal, but he also admits he didn't do any research, didn't do any meetings, didn't handle any paperwork, and basically failed to do his own due diligence! Is this the kind of sloppy "business" we want in the Senate?

- And finally, Suzy Lowdown is noticing her falling poll numbers and trying to change them by hitting Obtuse Angle even harder. I guess she has to keep distracting voters from her own failure to answer the simplest questions on issues like civil rights and climate change.



UPDATES:

- While Tea Party Express went with Angle, it seems Action is Brewing is endorsing Cha-cha-Chachas for Senate (while also endorsing "Luv-Guv" Gibbons for Gube). It seems all is not well in Teabagger-land, as they all can't agree on a single slate of candidates to endorse.

- And Suzy Lowdown is hitting Obtuse Angle yet again with a new ad on "Scientology-Massage-gate". Yep, this GOoP Primary is about to get a whole LOT uglier before early voting ends.

Again, I'll have more on all of this over the weekend. But again, I just have to say that... Well, I told you so! The DC pundits may be surprised about Harry Reid's comeback, but I'm not. And you shouldn't be, either. The more Nevadans learn about the GOoP's riches of embarrassments, the more confident I feel about November. :-)