Tuesday, April 26, 2011

NV-Sen: Boom Goes the Backfire?

Ha. Ha. It looks like Brian Sandoval's sweetheart back room deal with Dean Heller continues to backfire on them. PPP just polled Nevada again, and Dean Heller's lead in the Senate race (according to them) dropped from 13% to just 4%. Why? There are a number of factors, but here's something in particular to watch.

One thing that may end up actually hurting Heller in the long run is being appointed to the Senate vacancy created by the early resignation of John Ensign. 53% of voters think that Ensign's seat should be filled by a special election, compared to only 44% who think Brian Sandoval should appoint Ensign's replacement. Democrats will certainly try to make a Heller appointment smell bad and these numbers suggest that they have the public behind them in their opposition to Sandoval giving Heller a head start.

Heh. Serves them right.

Sandoval really thought this blatant snubbing of Nevadans would be glossed over as just another instance of "politics as usual". However, so far it looks like we the people want to take a closer look and ask why Dean Heller deserves a "head start" in next year's Senate election, and why we the people should be forced to pay for a special election to replace Heller exactly when Sandoval wants to slash public education to death, force elderly & disabled Nevadans onto the streets, and endanger Nevada's fragile economic recovery.

What, are Carson City political games more important than the lives of real Nevadans? Is this what Brian Sandoval meant by "shared sacrifice"? And is this just another instance of Dean Heller practicing something far different from what he preaches? Is it more important to cheat against Shelley Berkley than to actually focus on what their respective jobs are supposed to be?

Oh, and one more thing: Despite what some might say, PPP's results may be too good to be true... For Republicans! Mark Mellman was among the very few to get Nevada right last fall, and that's mainly because he figured out the secrets of polling Nevada. So when he shows Shelley Berkley ahead by 4%, those numbers can be taken to the bank. Most public pollsters are notorious for undersampling Latinos, young voters, and other demographic groups that usually vote Democratic here in Nevada, and they often don't get Clark County right. That's why Republicans shouldn't take too much comfort in any public pollster (especially one that got Nevada wrong these last two cycles) showing Dean Heller with a minuscule 4% lead.

Just saying. Heh. ;-)

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