Hardy, Meet Romney

Today, we must return to the vault. We made another trip to the Nevada Progressive archives to uncover this gem from none other than Mitt Romney. Remember when this now infamous video first dropped in September 2012?

Herein lies Romney's problem, which is the same problem he's had all along. Basically, Mitt Romney continues to reveal himself as an out-of-touch plutocrat who just doesn't care about the middle class and working poor. And no matter how many glossy mailers he sends to me and to other Democratic households, he can't convince us to vote against our best interest. In fact, he keeps making sure of that whenever he opens his mouth and goes "off the cuff"!

And remember when a critical mass of Republicans (even Nevada's own Joe Heck) closed ranks around Mitt Romney and his "47% philosophy"?

As we've discussed before, Paul Ryan's budget is nothing less than a full assault on America's middle class and the working poor aspiring to become middle class. And not only has Mitt Romney fully embraced Paul Ryan's "vision" of a middle class busting budget, but he also wants to undo decades worth of BIPARTISAN economic policy meant to boost the ranks of the middle class. And in pursuing this false dichotomy of "the makers versus the takers", he's actually attacking upwards of 60% (!!!) of Americans along with these bipartisan decades old policies meant to build and sustain America's middle class.

This is the real poison of what Mitt Romney said at that Boca Raton fundraiser. Mitt Romney revealed that he's more than willing to undo the foundation of America's middle class just so he and his fellow 1% plutocrats can pay even less in taxes. Heh, I guess Harry Reid has been right all along.

And this is why the teabaggers are reverting to screaming about what President Obama supposedly did or did not do in Las Vegas last week. Despite all their howls suggesting otherwise, perhaps even they are starting to realize this is a losing issue for Mitt Romney. Perhaps they are finally realizing that Mitt Romney is losing this election. One just can't attack 60% of Americans and expect no blowback.

Believe it or not, The Great 47% "Gaffe" of 2012 is back. And you won't... Actually, you should have no problem believing this Nevada Republican is reviving this incredibly offensive and misleading meme.



Oh, yes. That's right. Cresent Hardy went there. And he did so at the same fundraiser at Falcon Ridge Golf Club where he blamed everyone who voted for President Obama for anything and everything that's gone wrong. Oh, and that was the same Mesquite fundraiser where he refused to take any responsibility for driving his own company into bankruptcy (before someone else had to buy him out).

So now, Cresent Hardy wants to branch out. "Segregation laws" just aren't enough. Not even Highland Hills is stinky enough for Cresent Hardy. No, he must now enter Mitt Romney territory of total douchebaggery.

Who could have ever guessed Danny Tarkanian would one day earn the title of "Best NV-04 Candidate Nevada Republicans Have Ever Recruited"?

The Least We Can Do

Just a couple of weeks ago, we were left scratching our heads. When stating his opposition to raising the minimum wage, Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) tried every scare tactic available. And when that wasn't enough, he threw out a potential alternative.

And what was that alternative? He proposed increasing the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). And he's not alone. In recent weeks, other Republican politicians and some conservative economists have signaled support for expanding EITC.

And now, President Obama has included an EITC expansion in his budget proposal. He also included a Republican proposed tax loophole closure to pay for it. So can everyone become friends, hold hands, sing along, and pass this already?



Not so fast. Just last week, House Republican "leaders" proposed a "tax reform" plan that cuts EITC. And this isn't even the first time that Republicans turned hard against EITC. In 2012, G-O-TEA Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney infamously attacked EITC and other parts of the social safety net as "welfare for the 47%". And back then, Rep. Joe Heck agreed with Romney.

So what are we supposed to believe here? Do Republicans support EITC or not? We guess it depends on which day it is... And what President Obama includes in his budget (regardless of whether he's magnanimously including some of their own ideas in it!).

Of course, some prominent conservative thinkers have suggested that EITC is a rather inefficient way to address poverty & economic inequality. But then again, these tend to be the same prominent conservative thinkers who support raising the minimum wage. After all, why have federal & state government subsidize major corporations' decisions to underpay their workers?



And that brings us back to the question Rep. Heck struggled to answer two weeks ago. Raising the minimum wage is likely the most efficient and cost effective way to alleviate the suffering of America's working poor. But if Rep. Heck and other Congressional Republicans are so committed to subsidizing the miserly ways of America's corporate elite, we can at least expand the Earned Income Tax Credit. And if there are enough thinking members of Congress who are willing to find a more creative solution, we can always try a combination of both.

But in a nation crippled by epic economic inequality, nothing is not a viable option. The status quo is failing America's working class. And in an ideal world, our elected officials would be considering far more than either a minimum wage increase or EITC expansion. So really, one of these (or a combination of the two) is the least we can do for those who are hurting the most.

None

Last I checked, we're now over halfway through 2013. I'm sure for some of us here, the 2012 Election has become a rather distant memory. Yet today, we were given a reminder of that fiercely fought cycle.

A federal appeals court ruled Wednesday that voters in Nevada will continue to have the right to choose none-of-the-above on their ballot.  A 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel rejected a Republican-backed lawsuit that claimed the "none of these candidates" ballot option was unconstitutional. "The district court's ruling is a triumph for the voters of Nevada," said Secretary of State Ross Miller. "Voters who want to express their dissatisfaction with the federal and statewide candidates on the ballot should have the option and freedom to do it."

The Nevada Republican Party actually filed this suit last year in hopes of striking down a nefarious villain of Mitt Romney. No really, that's what they believed. I wonder if they've yet noticed the ironic twist of fate Ralston caught yesterday.

The lawsuit was filed a year ago to erase None of the Above is that it was filed by delusional Republicans who believed Mitt Romney had a chance to win Nevada and they needed to prevent those not thrilled with him from having a place to discard their vote. Forget that there were plenty of third-party options happy to accept a protest ballot. Suddenly, longtime Republicans such as ex-Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury had epiphanies that somehow the option disenfranchised voters. It was complete nonsense with a pathetically obvious political motivation.

The irony, though, is that Republicans may have needed None of the Above to save Sen. Dean Heller, who won his race by only 12,000 votes over Rep. Shelley Berkley. In that contest, None of the Above took 45,000 votes. Maybe a third-party candidate, who received 49,000 votes (most of them surely protests against both contenders) would have taken all of those None of the Above ballots if it wasn’t available. But I doubt it. If the GOP had won the suit, Romney still would have lost decisively and Heller might be out of a job.

Do Nevada Republicans actually want to continue pursuing this law suit? Have they thought of the consequences of taking this choice away from Nevada voters? Oh, and how does "None of These Candidates" disenfranchise anyone?

Or are they still unable to process any of this... Because they still haven't accepted the results of the last election?

The Evolution Will Not Be Televised?

Today offered a breakthrough of sorts. Another prominent Republican endorsed marriage equality. This time, he's a current elected official. And this time, he's a sitting US Senator. And this time, he's someone who even made Mitt Romney's VP short list.

So what compelled Senator Rob Portman's (R-Ohio) change of heart? His son came out.

"I'm announcing today a change of heart on an issue that a lot of people feel strongly about," Portman said. "It has to do with gay couples' opportunity to marry. And during my career in the House and also last couple years here in the Senate, you know, I've taken a position against gay marriage, rooted in part in my faith and my faith tradition. And had a very personal experience, which is my son came to Jane, my wife, and I, told us that he was gay and that it was not a choice and that, you know he, that's just part of who he is, and he'd been that way ever since he could remember."

Portman said his son's revelation led him to drop his opposition to same-sex marriage. "And that launched an interesting process for me, which was kind of rethinking my position," he said. "You know, talking to my pastor and other religious leaders and going through a process of, at the end, changing my position on the issue. I now believe people ought to have the right to get married."

Certainly, this comes during an already exciting month on the LGBTQ equality front. The Prop 8 and DOMA law suits are scheduled for oral arguments in The US Supreme Court later this month. Many prominent Republicans who had previously served in elected office, as White House staff, and/or in the last 4 Republican Presidential Campaigns recently filed amicus briefs to the Court urging pro-equality rulings in both cases. And now, we have this.

So are Republicans finally evolving on LGBTQ equality? Frank Bruni seems to think so. And he seems to think today's big announcement can help in expediting the process.

Rather than quibble with it, I’d prefer to note how profoundly emblematic his announcement is. Coming right after the widely publicized amicus brief in favor of gay marriage that dozens of prominent Republicans signed, Portman’s remarks illustrate a rapid movement by, and rising tension within, a party that has largely allied itself with social conservatives and is bit by bit breaking with them on this issue.

Seeing how this plays out over the next few years is going to be fascinating, though there’s no doubt how it will play out over the long haul. The majority of Republicans will be forced to publicly embrace same-sex marriage, because a huge majority of young Americans already do. There’s only one trajectory here—toward acceptance and equality—and to ignore that is to risk political marginalization and irrelevance.

In any case, my question for and about Portman, a decent and thoughtful man I’ve known for many years, isn’t why it took a gay son to move him to his current stance, but whether it really took a gay son to do that, and whether he was here or almost here a while back, but just didn’t say so.

What’s too infrequently noted or written is how many Republicans who aren’t on the party’s far right have privately, silently accepted and supported gays and lesbians but have stayed publicly mum, and articulated contrary positions, in the interests of political survival. A big part of what’s changing now isn’t their hearts. It’s their belief that they can be true to their hearts without committing political suicide, because America has made extraordinary progress, and because there’s no turning back.

Steve Benen, however, was not in such a generous mood. He couldn't help but ask some tough questions on today's big announcement.

[I]f Portman learned about his son's sexual orientation in 2011, why did it take the senator so long to come around? And why was he still endorsing discriminatory policies in 2012?

While we're at it, the Cleveland Plain Dealer noted that Portman could support legislation to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, but the senator said he hasn't done this because he says "economic policy issues are his specialty." First, senators are required to tackle a variety of issues. Second, I've seen Portman's positions on economic issues, and if they're his "specialty," he's in trouble.

But even putting all of that aside, there's also a larger consideration to keep in mind about the nature of societal change.

To be sure, I'm genuinely glad Portman has done the right thing, and can only hope it encourages other Republicans to do the same. What I find discouraging, though, is that the Republican senator was content to support discriminatory policies until they affected someone he personally cares about.

What about everyone else's sons and daughters? Why must empathy among conservatives be tied so directly to their own personal interactions?

We've seen this a few too many times. A Republican will support Medicaid cuts right up until he sees the program up close, with his own eyes. Republicans will be skeptical about federal disaster relief right up until it's their community that sees devastation. Republicans are prepared to deny basic rights based on sexual orientation, right up until it's their loved one who's gay.

It seems the key to American social progress in the 21st century is simple: more conservatives having more life experiences.

Yes, that was harsh. But on the other hand, there may be a whole lot of truth to what Benen says. As of late, it seems like the bulk of the Republicans "coming out" for equality are the ones with the most to gain and/or least to lose by "coming out".

Meanwhile in the heart of the G-O-TEA, strong resistance to equality remains. In fact, current G-O-TEA darling & Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) just boasted of his continuing strident opposition to marriage equality yesterday at CPAC! And of course, CPAC itself lists pro-homophobia/transphobia organizations as its co-sponsors while limiting the involvement of pro-equality Republican outfits.

Even here in Nevada, where one would think "libertarian" attitudes on "personal freedom" would influence Republicans otherwise, evolution has been incredibly difficult. None of the Nevada Republicans in Congress has endorsed marriage equality. Governor Brian Sandoval (R-Scared?) continues to fight equality in court. And even a certain (in)famous Nevada Republican legislator has introduced a "Trojan Horse Bill" meant to strip even the basic defenses from wrongful discrimination from LGBTQ Nevadans!

So Rob Portman's big announcement today is certainly a major step forward. It's now just a matter of whether his fellow Republicans will start moving alongside him. That question looks to be up in the air at the moment.

What's Really Behind RyanCare 3.0

He's back! In case you were missing Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Mittpocalypse Now) and his Medicare busting ways, you can miss him no more. He's released yet another House G-O-TEA budget plan this year. And yes, it's yet another attempt to kill Medicare by turning it into an unworkable voucher system (while stripping away the promise of guaranteed care).

And that's not all. There's even more to Ryan's "new old budget plan". Just don't expect any real solutions to any real problems. Ezra Klein explained earlier Ryan's true purpose in proposing this budget.

Here is Paul Ryan’s path to a balanced budget in three sentences: He cuts deep into spending on health care for the poor and some combination of education, infrastructure, research, public-safety, and low-income programs. The Affordable Care Act’s Medicare cuts remain, but the military is spared, as is Social Security. There’s a vague individual tax reform plan that leaves only two tax brackets —10 percent and 25 percent —and will require either huge, deficit-busting tax cuts or increasing taxes on poor and middle-class households, as well as a vague corporate tax reform plan that lowers the rate from 35 percent to 25 percent.

But the real point of Ryan’s budget is its ambitious reforms, not its savings. It turns Medicare into a voucher program, turns Medicaid, food stamps, and a host of other programs for the poor into block grants managed by the states, shrinks the federal role on priorities like infrastructure and education to a tiny fraction of its current level, and envisions an entirely new tax code that will do much less to encourage home buying and health insurance.

Ryan’s budget is intended to do nothing less than fundamentally transform the relationship between Americans and their government. That, and not deficit reduction, is its real point, as it has been Ryan’s real point throughout his career. [...]

It won’t create jobs this year, and will likely cost jobs in the years to come by putting the economy on a steep austerity ramp. There’s no housing policy for the millions of families in foreclosure and no way to read Ryan’s budget without assuming massive cuts to student-loans programs. That may mean fewer families watching student loans pile up, but only because they didn’t get any in the first place.

As for medical costs, fully 59 percent of Ryan’s savings come from new cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare or other health-care programs —and that omits the $800 billion in Medicare cuts he keeps from Obamacare. So there will be less health-care bureaucracy, sure, but also less health care. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that cuts on the order of what Ryan is proposing will mean around 35 million people lose their health-care coverage.

Got that? Paul Ryan demands even more austerity on top of the painful austerity we're already experiencing. And he's demanding even more American austerity as Europe suffers from its ongoing austerity crisis. Clearly, Ryan is on an ideology driven mission. His economic policies just don't add up.

Let's be real here. So much of this nonsense is really just political theater. With the federal budget deadline looming, many Republicans want to "lock in" the nasty budget cuts of the latest manufactured crisis without looking like a bunch of "Springtime Scrooges". So they're hoping Paul Ryan and his Medicare busting budget can do the dirty work for them in shifting "The Overton Window" of the budget debate so far to the right that manufactured crisis induced budget cuts suddenly look "moderate" by comparison.

That's also why supposed "reborn moderate" Dean Heller (R-"Office Space") is joining onto the Senate G-O-TEA bill to defund the Affordable Care Act. Sure, nothing screams "MODERATE!" by threatening one's constituents' health care to demand more job killing austerity. While Heller and his staff fight to squat on precious office space, they're tag-teaming with the likes of Paul Ryan to play games with real peoples' lives.

Of course, Harry Reid is not leaving this unanswered. Rather, Senate Democrats are releasing their own budget plan this week. Here's what we know about it so far.

According to a source familiar with the proposal, Democrats will offer a plan tomorrow that does not simply cut the deficit amid mass unemployment. It takes steps to mitigate the damage the cuts are expected to do to the economy by spending to boost job creation and job training.

According to the source, the plan —which is being presented by Senate Budget Committee Chairperson Patty Murray to the Dem caucus today —replaces the whole sequester and includes a total of $1.85 trillion in deficit reduction, derived from a 50-50 split of cuts and revenues derived from closing tax loopholes. The spending cuts include $275 billion in cuts to health care spending (but no Medicare benefits cuts; the source says cuts would be focused on the provider side), another $200 billion in non-defense spending cuts, $240 billion in defense cuts, and $242 billion in reduced interest rates.

It would spend $100 billion to boost the economy through spending on infrastructure repair and job training —all paid for by closing loopholes and cuts to “wasteful spending.” Total in new revenues: $975 billion. (Details are not yet available.)

Now, surely deficit hawks will find the health care spending cuts wanting. But the point here is that even if you grant that this won’t do much of anything to deal with long term health care costs, this is a generally balanced way to avert the immediate threat posed to the economy by the sequester, if by “balanced,” we mean, “gives both sides some of what they want.” It cuts spending amid the fragile recovery, but does include some stimulus to cushion the impact of deficit reduction. It reduces health care spending while avoiding harm to beneficiaries. Both of those are enabled partly by closing the sort of millionaire loopholes Republicans used to favor closing back when they were trying to do that to avoid raising tax rates on the rich, during the fiscal cliff fight.

Even the Senate Democratic plan has budget cuts. But here, they're at least less severe. And they're somewhat offset by some investment in our economy. If anything, this is a more honest attempt at staking some sort of middle ground in this whacked budget debate on Capitol Hill.

Really, we shouldn't be pursuing any more austerity. This just isn't the right time to pursue large budget cuts. Our economy needs more investment, not less.

Still, something must be done to stop this ongoing manufactured crisis and stop inflicting any more unnecessary economic pain on our people. If Dean Heller and Joe Heck actually want to match their "moderate" words with action, they should stop playing footsie with Paul Ryan and the "tea party"... And encourage their party's leaders to negotiate in good faith with President Obama and Senator Reid to pass a budget that won't inflict any more unnecessary harm on the American economy.

¿Pueden los Republicanos Reformar?

For nearly a decade, comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) has been an elusive policy goal on Capitol Hill. Politicians on both sides have attempted to reach a solution. But whenever Congress seemingly came close to a solution, the radical right led an opposition campaign to kill it.

So far this year, we've been wondering if this time will be different. On one hand, there's a new push from (some elements of) the (center-)right to finally make CIR happen. The Republican establishment knows it's on the wrong side of America's demographic evolution, and it knows the business establishment wants CIR so it can better function in the globalized economy.

However, the radical right opposition is still there. And not only is it there, but it's become even more intense in the "tea party" era. As much as the Republican establishment here in Nevada and in DC would rather deny her existence, the spirit of Sharron Angle lives on. And she represents the heart of the current Republican Party.



It's the very heart that Mitt Romney constantly appealed to during his Presidential campaign last year.



And already, many House Republicans have begun lining up against the new Senate CIR proposal.

But House Republicans already have started expressing concerns about a key idea in the Senate framework that, once the border is deemed secure, would provide a pathway to citizenship for many of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. U.S. Rep. Raúl Labrador, an Idaho Republican involved in House immigration-reform talks, told NPR last week that he doesn’t think his fellow House Republicans would support a citizenship path, although he would be in favor of legalizing their status.

“Statements from the House make it more difficult,” [Senator Jeff] Flake [R-Arizona, and a CIR "Gang of 8" member], a former six-term House member, told The Arizona Republic Thursday in an interview. “Staking out that kind of ground early on without really seeing what the legislation looks like.”

Flake said he is optimistic that the GOP-led House will embrace the bipartisan Senate approach, including a path to citizenship, once a bill is introduced and lawmakers can learn the specific steps undocumented immigrants would have to go through to get a green card. In broad terms, they will have to pass background checks, pay back taxes and fines, learn English and wait in line, according to the Senate outline.

“Once they see the legislation, once they see the length of time, the requirements and everything else, I think we can convince people that this is the way to go,” Flake said. “I hope they keep their powder dry until they see it.”

On Friday, Flake reiterated to The Republic’s editorial board that he views House Republicans as the biggest potential roadblock, saying immigration-reform advocates need “a significant number of Republicans to support it in the House.”

Even their fellow Republicans are becoming concerned that sustained G-O-TEA opposition may yet derail CIR... Again. Will this time be different?

Only if enough Republicans decide it's in their long-term best interest to actually reach a realistic solution to the nation's immigration problems. And CIR advocates have found another glimmer of hope here in Nevada. Apparently, Senator Dean Heller (R-Metamorphosis) may not be the only Nevada Republican to change his tune on immigration. The man who succeeded him in the House seat he used to fill may be following suit.

“I’ve always been for improvements in border security,” [Rep. Mark] Amodei [R-Carson City] said. “And I am not convinced that guest workers are a bad thing. We should have a pathway for people who to come and work. You can’t assume that everyone who comes wants to be a citizen.”

But unlike many members of his party, Amodei is amenable to the idea of a pathway to citizenship — and says an entry program that doesn’t respect the principle of family reunification is a nonstarter.

“I’m willing to look at that — if all you’ve done is broken the immigration law, to be able to earn your way to a state where you can apply for citizenship,” Amodei said. “To come out and say, ‘First and foremost, we’re going to break up your family’? That’s probably not a great first move.”

Being from rural Northern Nevada, Amodei might not seem like the most natural candidate among Nevada lawmakers to take a lead role on issues concerning immigrants, who are clustered more closely in urban Southern Nevada.

But Amodei points out that Hispanics make up 25 percent of his district.

“It’s 1 in 4. No matter how you do the math, that’s a major piece of your constituency, that’s a major interest,” he said. “I think I have as much interest in this as anybody.”

So Amodei is now in play. That just leaves Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) as the one remaining Nevada Member of Congress who hasn't (yet) revealed his hand on immigration. And it reveals how at least some Nevada Republicans want to diffuse immigration as the "wedge issue" that continues to hurt their standing among minority communities, especially Latin@s and Asian-Americans.

But again, how do they overcome the continuing "TEA" fueled opposition to CIR from their own party? How do they move past Sharron Angle, Mitt Romney, Kris Kobach, and Joe Arpaio? Can the G-O-TEA bloc finally be defeated on this issue?

The key to unlock CIR may ultimately be found in last month's "Fiscal Cliff" deal. As long as Amodei and 20+ more House Republicans are willing to make the jump, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) may just have to let them join the vast majority of House Democrats in passing CIR. "The Hastert Rule" will be broken again, but so will the logjam that's constantly killed reform in the 11th hour before.

So can it happen? Will it finally happen? How serious are Republicans in coming to the table to let it happen? Are they willing to actually work with Democrats to enact the broad consensus the American people have already said that they want to happen?

First, Congressional Republicans must finally put aside their xenophobic ghosts from campaigns past and look to the future.

Sharron Angle in the Middle

Yet again, Governor Brian Sandoval (R-"Post-partisan") is being hailed for his "third way". After he agreed to accept the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion, other Republican Governors started following suit. Never mind that he wants to undermine the very purpose of Medicaid expansion. He's just so "moderate". At least he's providing good optics for Republicans.

And then, there's Dean Heller. After running hard to the "tea party" radical right when in the House, he's suddenly found his "No Labels Post-partisan" side as Nevada's Junior US Senator. Notice his support for Violence Against Women Act reauthorization, his change of tune on gun safety reform, and his total about face on comprehensive immigration reform. Apparently, his near loss to Shelley Berkley last November convinced Heller to pursue a complete course correction in Washington.

What we're seeing here in Nevada illustrates the deep challenge for the national Republican Party. After several cycles of pursuing "perfect conservatism", Republicans are now left with "tea party" madness that threatens its overall electoral viability. That's why Karl Rove is forming a SuperPAC designed to defeat "tea party" backed Congressional candidates who the Republican establishment considers electoral liabilities.

However, the "tea party" isn't ending any time soon. For one, even the Republican establishment has not completely abandoned "tea party" ideology and practices. And even in the instances where it has, teabaggers are vowing to fight back. Whether the establishment wants to call it "moderation", "modernization", or something else entirely, its preferred path of change isn't being accepted by the very base it's relied on for the past several election cycles.

Case in point: Sharron Angle. No matter how much Nevada's Republican establishment wants her to disappear, she keeps reemerging like a "TEA" fueled jack-in-the-box. And no matter how much Heller & Sandoval try to convince their party to embrace their "third way", the base continues to choose Sharrontology instead.





This is the problem that plagues Republicans. Their "ticking demographic time bomb" is now exploding. The American electorate is changing. And the traditional Republican base is shrinking. As long as "top of the ticket" federal Republican candidates fail to approach 50% here in Nevada and in other swing states, Republicans are in deep trouble.

Yet in recent cycles, Republicans have depended on what we now call the "tea party" for its success. George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 thanks to record Christian fundamentalist turnout. And many Republicans were swept into Congress in 2010 thanks to a unique combination of depressed Democratic turnout and intense "tea party" activity.

However even then, there were warning signs. And the biggest one was right here in Nevada, when Sharron Angle lost that epic Senate race to Harry Reid. Republicans were expecting all year to unseat the Majority Leader. But when she lost despite the national pro-Republican environment of the 2010 cycle and the millions spent by "Tea Party, Inc." to drag down Harry Reid's poll numbers, it sent reverberations across the country...

Yet the teabaggers refused to notice. They kept nominating more extreme Congressional candidates. And they forced Mitt Romney so far to the radical right that he became unacceptable for too many voters. And they lost both the Presidency (again) & a number of key Congressional races across the country last November.

Yet despite all this, the G-O-TEA base demands even more ideological "purity". That's why it keeps trying to kill comprehensive immigration reform, gun safety reform, and the Violence Against Women Act. And because so many Republican Members of Congress continue to fear "tea party" powered primary challenges (like Sue Lowden's loss to Sharron Angle in 2010), they continue to fall in line.

Case in point: Mark Amodei. He claims to be "tired of the drama" of governance by way of synthetic crises. So what does he propose? Oh, just more synthetic crises! After all, teabaggers seem to love the idea of crashing & burning the economy for the sake of their ideology.

But now, most Americans are tired of these "tea party" antics. And it looks like some in the Republican establishment are finally realizing at least the optical problem of this. Yet because it's promised this and more to the "tea party" base, the base expects more obstruction and more ideology driven inflexibility. And so far, teabaggers still don't care about the larger political repercussions.

So the spirit of Sharron Angle lives on in the Republican Party. And not only that, it also continues to guide the core of the party. After pandering so much to it in order to save their hides in Republican primaries past, can Dean Heller & Brian Sandoval actually move past it for good? And after cultivating it for so long, can Karl Rove actually succeed in silencing it? How these questions are answered will determine the fate of various policies being debated in Carson City and Washington now... As well as the future of the entire Republican Party.

10 of 12: Caucus Fracas

Around this time last year, we reflected on "The Rise & Fall of the 'New' Nevada GOP". Early on in 2011, everything seemed to be going so well for Nevada Republicans. They had finally ridden themselves of "top of the ticket troublemakers", and they seemed to be turning a corner with fresh faces in leadership.

Well, that grand old elephant honeymoon didn't last long. And as 2012 began, that became crystal clear. What was supposed to be Nevada Republicans' special moment in the spotlight instead became a total train wreck. And what was supposed to be "Mitt Romney's big night" instead became #CaucusFracas2012.

Funny enough, he unintentionally pointed out the greatest weakness of Nevada Republicans. Ever since 2008, they've been obsessing over ideological purity instead of even attempting to show any real interest in governing. We saw it in 2010, when they embraced extremism and tried to shove the most radical US Senate candidate we've ever seen down our throats. And we saw it again last year, when they were more interested in playing political games than solving our state's problems. It's really all about their radical "tea party" ideology for them. And by making Mitt Romney embrace it, they're only sowing the seeds of their own defeat this fall.

Oh, and by the way, NBC News now officially projects Mitt Romney to win the G-O-TEA Caucus tonight. Wow. What a surprise! ;-)

But again, this "victory" is looking increasingly pyrrhic. As we talked about yesterday, President Obama is proving that his vision of economic recovery and rebuilding is one that really works. So what does Mitt Romney have to compete with this? Lies? Radical right extremism? Donald Trump?

My prediction actually did come true. For one, Rick Santorum managed to upstage Romney by turning a trio of supposedly "meaningless beauty contests" into a "game change" moment that forced Romney to actually compete for the Republican nomination. And while that ultimately wasn't enough to keep Romney from claiming the nomination, what happened in February forced Romney to run so far to the radical right that he made himself unelectable in the general election.

And if that didn't add enough insult to injury, this most certainly did.



The caucus process itself melted into pure chaos as voters were being turned away, counting turned into controversy, and out-of-state media looked in horror as the Nevada Republican Party began to unravel. But perhaps above all else, this was a major turning point for Nevada Republicans... As we saw the beginnings of "The Second Ron Paul Revolution.



So they succeeded in hijacking the Nevada Republican Party. They then failed at actually leading it somewhere (other than abject failure). We saw the writing on the wall back in May.

[... W]inning elections doesn't happen by just demanding "purity" and throwing a temper tantrum when that doesn't happen. Believe it or not, temper tantrums don't win elections.

This is something we often have to grapple with on the left, but now we're seeing this unfold on the right at a level that I've never seen before. As much as some grassroots folks on the left and the right love to see epic ideological battles unfold at party conventions and purge all "unsavory moderates" out of their respective parties, the fact of the matter is that doing that gets us no closer to winning elections. (If anything, that HURTS efforts to win elections.) While it's always important to promote the values we believe in and hold fast to them, we can't punish political parties for focus[ing] on party building while perhaps shirking "ideology enforcement" duties. After all, the first responsibility of a political party is to build the infrastructure necessary to win elections.

At times, we on the left have not seen eye to eye with Nevada State Democratic Party leaders. And yes, we sometimes get irritated when they seem to favor moderate candidates over "BOLD PROGRESSIVES!!!" However, most of us also realize that getting 70-90% of what we want is far better than getting nothing, so we leave Fantasy-land behind and return to the real world & return to working the field to win elections.

And this is why Orrin Johnson is panicking. Ron Paul's supporters care deeply for their libertarian beliefs, and they're set to accept nothing less than full fealty to those beliefs. But in pursuing complete ideological purity, they're also set to lose a whole lot of elections because they simply don't care about that stuff. This is why Nevada Republicans are in such dire straits. And it should serve as an important lesson to all the rest of us trying to balance ideological wishes with political reality.

Again, we could see what was coming. So while "The 'New New' Nevada GOP" focused on such important matters as worshipping at the altar of Ron Paul, the top money people, the "consultant class", and even the entire Washoe County Republican Party proceeded to obtain a "divorce" from "The Real Nevada Republican Party" in order for the RNC to "make it rain" on them. And while the Ron Paul Party succeeded in revering their "dear leader" in their own special way, Dean Heller and other top Nevada Republican politicians just ran away from the entire party.

That's why they could not stop this from happening. And that's ultimately why they could not stop this from happening. And that's why Nevada Republicans may be resigned to this for a while (longer).

Back in September, we noticed Nevada Republicans' glaring lack of field. The "power player" consultants ultimately opted to spend more on media advertising while "the real Nevada Republican Party" continued its increasingly time-honored tradition of extraordinary infighting. The few victories Republicans enjoyed on November 6 were more despite the party, not because of it.

So what will Nevada Republicans do to move forward? The above mentioned consultants are floating around the idea of some sort of "permanent Team Nevada" to circumvent the real state party. Others want to continue plotting a plan to finally wrest control from the Ron Paul acolytes who have been spinning the party out of control (perhaps because they're ideologically opposed to any kind of central control?). Meanwhile, the Ron Paul acolytes and their teabagger allies are already threatening primary challenges to Brian Sandoval and all other Republicans they deem "impure". So basically, get ready for another cycle full of G-O-TEA mayhem. [...]

But can Republicans ultimately remain relevant with this level of chaos continuing indefinitely? I have my doubts. It's just not sustainable to set up a "shadow party" to get out the vote, outsource other party functions (like sending mailers and producing yard signs) out of state, and allow "top of the ticket" candidates to continue running their own operations completely separated from the party while avoiding the actual party like the plague. Something's got to give. We'll just have to wait and see what happens in the coming months as the Nevada Republican Party nears its final implosion (and first chance of actual rebuilding).

And this, my dears, is the sad and sordid tale of the Nevada Republican Party in the 2012 Presidential Cycle. We can only sit back, grab some popcorn, and see what kind of spectacular drama unfolds in G-O-TEA Land in 2013.

Republicans, Ignored (by Nevada's Republican Governor)

This week, the Republican Governors' Association has been meeting in Las Vegas. Oddly enough, Nevada's own Governor has been schmoozing with the political major leaguers in Washington, DC MIA. Any guesses as to why Brian Sandoval isn't meeting with his fellow Republican Governors in his own state?

Most likely, he did not want to be caught in the middle of this.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) strongly condemned Mitt Romney Wednesday night for remarks the former Republican nominee made blaming President Obama’s re-election on “big gifts” for minorities and women.

“That is absolutely wrong,” Jindal told reporters in Las Vegas at the Republican Governors Association meeting. “Two points on that. One, we have got to stop dividing American voters. We need to go after 100 percent of the votes, not 53 percent — we need to go after every single vote. And second, we need to continue to show that our policies help every voter out there achieve the American dream, which is to be in the middle class, which is to be able to give their children the opportunity to get a great education, which is for their children to have even better-paying jobs than their parents.” [...]

“If we’re going to continue to be a competitive party and win elections on the national stage and continue to fight for our conservative principles, we need two messages to get out loudly and clearly: One, we are fighting for 100 percent of the votes, and secondly, our policies benefit every American who wants to pursue the American dream, period,” he said. “No exceptions.”

Of course, Jindal was reacting to this.

"The Obama campaign was following the old playbook of giving a lot of stuff to groups that they hoped they could get to vote for them and be motivated to go out to the polls, specifically the African American community, the Hispanic community and young people," [Mitt] Romney told hundreds of donors during a telephone town hall Wednesday. "In each case they were very generous in what they gave to those groups." [...]

"With regards to African American voters, 'Obamacare' was a huge plus — and was highly motivational to African American voters. You can imagine for somebody making $25—, or $30—, or $35,000 a year, being told you're now going to get free healthcare — particularly if you don't have it, getting free healthcare worth, what, $10,000 a family, in perpetuity, I mean this is huge. Likewise with Hispanic voters, free healthcare was a big plus."

Pivoting to immigration, Romney said the Obama campaign's efforts to paint him as "anti-immigrant" had been effective and that the administration's promise to offer what he called "amnesty" to the children of undocumented immigrants had helped turn out Latino voters in record numbers.

"With regards to Hispanic voters, the amnesty for the children of illegals — the so-called Dream Act kids — was a huge plus for that voting group," he said. "On the negative side, of course, they always characterized us as being anti-immigrant, being tough on illegal immigration, and so forth, so that was very effective with that group."

"The president's campaign," he said, "focused on giving targeted groups a big gift — so he made a big effort on small things. Those small things, by the way, add up to trillions of dollars."

Once again, Mitt Romney and so many of his fellow Republicans refuse to acknowledge the new demographic reality of Nevada, and of the entire country. And way to piss off Latino voters, along with African-American and young voters, even after the election is over. Perhaps Mitt Romney is aiming for his picture to be entered into the dictionaries... Next to the definition of "sore loser".

And this is why Brian Sandoval is staying away from his fellow Republican Governors, even as they meet in Las Vegas. He would much rather hobnob with both Harry Reid and Dean Heller in DC. And most definitely, he would much rather receive prestigious awards (even if they are based on a myth) than sit around with grumpy Republicans complaining about what happened last week.

After all, Brian Sandoval is ambitious. And he may yet have a future. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is quickly on his way to becoming a relic of the past. And the Republican Party is still struggling to figure out whether to adapt for the future or keep wishing for an idealized version of the past.

First Thoughts on the Morning After

Yes, I still have a hangover from yesterday. And I still have so much cleaning to do today. But now, it's all over. The votes have been counted.

And right now, Coolican is required reading on understanding what happened here in Nevada.

Democrats have won the national popular vote in six of the past seven presidential elections. In Nevada, this move to the Democratic column has been more recent but also swifter. President Barack Obama’s comfortable victory here —despite the terrible economy, joblessness and housing market — illustrates that Nevada isn’t much of a presidential swing state anymore. Hence, my suspicion that we won’t continue to be inundated with TV ads every four years.

The demographic trends working against Republicans nationally are even fiercer here. CNN exit polls show that Hispanics constitute 18 percent of the electorate, up from 15 percent in 2008 and 2010, and Obama won nearly 70 percent of those voters. And, every day, more and more Hispanics become citizens or turn 18, and nearly all of them recoil from the GOP’s strident positions on immigration, but also from its conservative economic policies.

As we've discusses before, demographics matter. And since the demographics of Nevada have changed so much in the last two decades, we're a different state. Yet Republicans still haven't adapted to that.

And what's made it even worse for them has been their lack of good field. Because Nevada Democrats have been so great at building a solid field operation in this state, they ran into so much success in GOTV. Certainly, "The Reid Machine" delivered yet again.

However, it wasn't fully complete. Dean Heller and Joe Heck somehow hanged on last night, though Heller "won" with only 46% of the vote. "Tea Party, Inc." outfits spent many millions of dollars on attacking Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera. And it looked like many of those attacks stuck. And it looked like they were able to deliver a few Legislature seats to Republicans as well.

However, Democrats will end up keeping both houses of the Nevada Legislature. And despite the "TEA" fueled attacks on Steven Horsford, he is still finalizing a decisive victory over Danny Tarkanian. And President Obama won Nevada by a bigger margin than most pundits had expected. All in all, not so bad for Nevada Democrats.

Looking forward, Democrats here have had to learn some lessons the hard way when it comes to responding to "TEA" fueled ad attacks. Yet despite that torrent of money thrown onto our TV screens and mailboxes, we still ended up seeing a whole lot of Blue here last night. As I said all along this cycle, Nevada remains a Blue State.

La Importancia del Voto Latino

I know we've been constantly discussing the importance of Latino voters in deciding this election, but I just can't stress enough how critical they will be... And really, already are. Today, we're given another reminder courtesy of Latino Decisions.

Overall, Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney. The 52-point gap matches the largest gap among Latinos this year, also found in the October 1 tracking poll.

For the ten weeks the impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll has been taken the most important issue for Latinos consistently has been the economy and the latest release revealed that Romney and the Republican party have been unable to convince Latino voters that they will be better at improving the it. Seventy-three percent of Latino voters trust Obama and the Democrats to make the right decisions to improve the economy compared to only 18% that trust Romney and the Republicans.

“The poll shows that this year we can anticipate record participation among Latino voters,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia “It looks like the “Sleeping Giant” has woken up.”

Over the past weeks the number of Latinos who say they are certain to vote has gone from 81% to 84% and now 87%. At the same time, the percent who say they are more enthusiastic in 2012 has grown from 36% to 40% and now 45%. The percent who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” has gone from 51% to 56% to 59% in the last three weeks.

And apparently, 8% of Latino voters nationwide have already voted early. Expect that number to rise this week, especially here in Nevada once more temporary early voting sites open in heavily Latino neighborhoods in East Las Vegas and North Las Vegas (starting Wednesday).

So why is this happening? Well, remember what we discussed in February...

Look at how far Willard Romney has gone. He's been endorsed by the extreme right Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), the guy perhaps most responsible for Arizona's and Alabama's extreme anti-immigrant statutes as well as someone with well documented ties to white supremacist groups. [...]

Mittens not only opposes comprehensive immigration reform, but he also virulently opposes the DREAM Act, and he's been confronted by Latin@ students over it. And if that weren't bad enough, Romney's economic policies would also hurt Latino families if enacted by stripping away their health care, taking away opportunities to attend college, and destroying Social Security. Oh, and he also has long standing ties to Former California Governor Pete Wilson (R), the guy who ran on the extreme anti-immigrant Prop 187 and ultimately killed whatever chances California Republicans had of ever winning the Latino vote again.

And no matter how much Mitt Romney keeps trying to spin his own record away, the vast majority of Latino voters refuse to forget. This keeps coming back to bite Romney where it hurts the most.

This also has to be scaring Dean Heller. After all, his poll numbers among Latino voters here in Nevada have been falling along with Romney's. And his now infamous comments on immigration reform at the last NV-Sen debate continue to haunt him.

Nevada truly is a dynamic state. One aspect of our state that continues to change fairly rapidly is our demographics. It provided an unexpected twist (to the East Coast based media pundits) to our US Senate race in 2010. And it may yet doom Nevada Republicans again in 2012.

Mitt Romney's Welcome Back to Southern Nevada

As we had discussed earlier, Mitt Romney is here.





And just before he arrived, there were some special people ready to greet him.







For the most part, things remained calm at Henderson Pavilion. The only major moment of contention happened when the Univision camera crew came over to film the ProgressNow Nevada protesters and a few Romney supporters were hurling insults at the protesters... And at the Univision camera crew. Other than that, there wasn't really confrontation this morning.

The other big takeaway from this morning was in contrasting what happened on the two sides. Honestly, the line for Mitt Romney looked like a long string of white. There was little diversity in the crowd. And the crowd mostly looked angry.

Meanwhile, the protesters were frustrated over Romney's anti-immigrant stance and refusal to acknowledge the severity of the foreclosure crisis. Yet even there, the group of protesters didn't look as visibly angry as the Romney supporters waiting in line. I just couldn't miss that interesting facet.

At the very least, the nearby early voting site at the Paseo Verde Library should see some action today. We'll have to see how much of a dent it really makes in Nevada Democrats' early vote lead.

Busy Week

As early voting continues at a furious pace...



... And the debates finally come to an end, it's time for one more round of rallies and special events to fire up the base.

Today, Mitt Romney will be here in Henderson... And guess who will be just outside the venue.

And then tomorrow, Romney will head to Reno while President Obama throws a "block party" in West Las Vegas Wednesday night. We'll do our best here to stay on top of all the action and provide updates this week.

Campaign season is about to come to a close, so we might as well enjoy the fireworks.

So Now, He's "All In"?

Every so often, Brian Sandoval reemerges to remind us all that he's "a contender". Never mind that he's continually snubbed by his own party. He still desperately wants to be seen as "a player" on the national G-O-TEA stage. This is why he's now swooping in to try to rescue Team Nevada... From themselves.

Sandoval will be the honorary chairman of Team Nevada, the joint effort by Republican campaigns, Sandoval confirmed on Thursday night.

"I will continue to do all I can to elect Republicans," Sandoval said. The governor's new role with the Republican campaigns was first reported by Jon Ralston this week.

Sandoval urged a room of about 100 people in Reno on Thursday night to volunteer.

"We have momentum. It's a dead heat right now," he said before the debate between Rep. Paul Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden. "It will take all of us knocking on doors."

Team Nevada and Sandoval's political adviser, Mike Slanker, would not confirm the governor's role on Friday or explain how he would be utilized by the campaign.

Sandoval spoke in Tampa, Fla., at the Republican National Convention and has helped GOP candidates raise money. But Sandoval, who endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry early in the Republican presidential nomination process, has not taken a highly visible role as a surrogate Mitt Romney. He has also distanced himself from the Nevada Republican Party, which has been taken over by backers of Rep. Ron Paul. That fracture was what prompted the campaigns to form Team Nevada as the primary campaign function.

As is often the case with Team Nevada, this looks to be (yet another) case of them rushing to the media to save face. With only a week left until early voting begins and 25 days left until "Official Election Day", what can Brian Sandoval do now for Team Nevada? Oh yes, he can help them spin the media away from their voter registration fraud scandal, and from their complete failure in keeping up with Nevada Democrats in the field.

Still, that can only help Team Nevada so much. As Jon Ralston explained yesterday, the actual scene for Nevada Republicans may be worse than what we see now in the bulk of the public polls. They're in a real bind now, and there's not much left for them to do.

So of course, Team Nevada operatives rope Governor Sandoval into making a few more public appearances with them. But really, don't be fooled by the spin. If Sandoval really felt good about Romney's chances here, he would have done more for him earlier. And if Team Nevada were really in such a great position to rescue Romney and Dean Heller, they wouldn't be making such desperate moves now.

NV-03: How Heck Lost His Cool (& Oceguera Got His Groove Back)

Fresh off last night's debate, John Oceguera stopped by Nevada Democrats' NV-03 field office to thank volunteers. Overall, the mood in the office was quite cheerful... Well, at least until last night's massive storm hit.









And considering what happened last night, we can see why Oceguera was so cheerful.

The most heated exchange came when Oceguera was asked about a recent television ad in which he accuses Heck of being callous toward the needs of rape victims.

[Vegas PBS' Mitch] Fox pointedly asked Oceguera if he still stood by the ad, which many political observers said crossed the line of fair play.

“Yes. I will stand by that ad, and here’s why,” said Oceguera, who indicated that his mother was a victim of domestic violence. “Congressman Heck’s record on women’s health and safety is clear. He voted to weaken the Violence Against Women Act, he voted twice to defund Planned Parenthood … It goes back to his history in the legislature where he voted to not fund domestic violence programs, rape crisis programs and vaccine to help women to be protected from cervical cancer.”

Heck shot back that Oceguera was purposefully distorting his record. [...]

The 1994 Violence Against Women Act is up for renewal this year, and competing House and Senate versions have yet to be reconciled. The House version excludes provisions that would protect immigrant victims from abusers who would use their immigration status against them, and that explicitly authorize services for gay, lesbian, transgender and bisexual victims.

Joe Heck never likes being confronted with his own record. So when asked about women's rights, all he could do was make excuses. Oh, he couldn't vote for a rape crisis program because the bill that it was a part of was loaded with "pork" (like funding for trails and historical records... And it passed on a bipartisan 17-3 vote). And he couldn't vote to expand access to the HPV/cervical cancer vaccine because it would have been like coddling "smokers who contract lung cancer". Oh, and he still can't let the bipartisan backed reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act because of "teh gayz" and "these people". Joe Heck just doesn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions.

That was pretty much the recurring theme throughout last night's NV-03 debate. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own vote to defund Head Start. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own repeated efforts to cut investment in public education. Basically, Joe Heck refused to take responsibility for anything. He was just looking for someone else to blame.

This is why he lost his cool last night... And this is why he's in more political danger than he wants to acknowledge.

NV-Sen: More Baloney from Dean Heller

Yesterday, some Democrats actually got this in the mail.





Yep, Dean Heller actually sent this. He's obviously hoping that his "moderate" baloney will be enough to win over enough crossover support to keep him in office. The problem for Heller is that his message sounds just as cheap and flimsy as the production value of this mail piece.

Dean Heller claims he wants "bipartisan" budget solutions, yet he's been backing an extreme push for unbalanced nonsense that would plunge our economy into deeper recession and unemployment if passed. Oh, and it would require cuts on everything from Medicare to children's health care to Pell Grants to infrastructure investment. It's so extreme that not even Paul Ryan's Medicare busting budget could pass muster!

Oh, but of course, Dean Heller has also backed Paul Ryan's plan. And he even voted to throw America into default and threatened a new global crisis last year just because what was being discussed at the bipartisan debt ceiling negotiations was "not good enough" for him. Yet all of a sudden, we're supposed to forget all of this and embrace Dean Heller and his new "moderate" persona?

That's what he was hoping for at last night's debate. But interestingly enough, it all unraveled when he let a little something slip.

On immigration, Heller said he was willing to work with Democrats on reform. He said he supported a pathway to citizenship for those who came here illegally and served in the military or are getting an education.

He said he also supports efforts to push English-only legislation and making it easier to immigrate to the country legally.

“So the principles that I’m trying to support is trying to make these people succeed,” he said. “I want them to succeed here in this country.”

Democrats Thursday night pounced on his reference to “these people,” setting up a conference call with Latino leaders for Friday morning.

“I am deeply insulted by Sen. Heller's disrespectful remarks,” state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, D-Las Vegas, said in a statement moments after the debate.

Just as we discussed last night, this is becoming a big problem for Heller. Already, he's been bleeding support among Latin@ voters because his actions haven't matched his rhetoric. But now that Heller is letting slip his real feelings toward las comunidades Latinas en Nevada, this will only further complicate whatever "Hispanic outreach efforts" he has left.

So Dean Heller has been trying one more time to pull some wool over Nevadans' eyes and make his "moderate" balonet look and smell like real beef. Unfortunately for him, it's become more obvious that something just doesn't smell right.

Su Voto Es Su Voz... Indeed.

Funny enough, there were many topics that didn't come up in last night's Presidential Debate. One of those was immigration. And there were many other issues, like education, that were mostly glossed over.

Perhaps Mitt Romney should thank his lucky stars for that, since he's already having huge trouble connecting with Latino voters. Today's new Latino Decisions Nevada poll shows quite the eye popping numbers.

3. If the 2012 election for President was held today and the candidates were [ROTATE: Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama] who would you most likely vote for? [IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you are certain to vote [ANSWER] or could change your mind? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to choose, who would you lean towards?

Romney – certain 15 Romney – not-certain 1 undecided – lean Romney 1 Obama – certain 69 Obama– not-certain 7 undecided – lean Obama 2 Undecided/don’t know 5
Romney Combined 17
Obama Combined 78

5. If the 2012 election for U.S. Senate in Nevada was held today and the candidates were [ROTATE: Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley] who would you most likely vote for?

Heller – certain 19 Heller – not-certain 5 undecided – lean Heller 2 Berkley – certain 46 Berkley – not-certain 10 undecided – lean Berkley 2 Undecided/don’t know 15
Heller Combined 26
Berkley Combined 58

As you can see above, Dean Heller is also running into trouble with Latino voters here. Hmmm... I wonder why.



Just as I had expected, what Heller said about the DREAM Act is coming back to bite him. And what Romney won't say about immigration policy continues to haunt him. Nevada Latin@ voters really aren't as stupid as G-O-TEA strategists were hoping they'd be.

"The Closing Act" Begins This Week

Today, President Obama will be arriving in Las Vegas to do a rally tonight... Then do debate prep for the following two days.

While there's been much discussion on the importance of this debate, there may be something happening this week that's just as important. Early voting is now happening in many states... Including several key swing states. And even though we're not voting yet here in Nevada, many minds have already been made up.

So with only 37 days to go until "The Last Day of Election Month", this may be the week that sets in stone the narrative of the 2012 Election. This is why President Obama is doing a rally tonight at Desert Pines High School followed by 2 solid days of debate prep in the quieter confines of Lake Las Vegas. And this is why Mitt Romney's surrogates are scrambling to spin what's about to happen this week.

We're finally in the home stretch now. There are few truly undecided voters left. And there is very little time left to sway them. And unless we see some epic "game change" this week, it's almost time to declare game over.

So it's nice to see Southern Nevada play host to the opening of the closing act. ;-)

Dean Heller's "Uninvited Guests" at Last Night's NV-Sen Debate

Did you notice what happened at last night's debate? Anjeanette Damon caught a glimpse of it...

Heller went on to say he believes “it’s the responsibility this federal government has to help those who have come by hard times in this economy.”

But Berkley wouldn’t let it slide.

“Look, the fact of the matter is my opponent actually did call unemployed people hobos and that puts him very much in line with what Mitt Romney said about the 47 percent,” Berkley said.

This may have been the continuation of Dean Heller's worst nightmare coming true. He's given so much of himself to his beloved Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, only for them to turn around and bite him in the ass.

How? Both Joan Walsh and Kevin Drum both pointed at Paul Ryan's now infamous plan to "voucher-ize" and cut Medicare to death. And indeed, that's been something that's haunted Mitt Romney ever since he picked Ryan as his running mate. However, there's something that's even more central to Romney's campaign that is now hurting him... And hurting Dean Heller here in Nevada.

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Mitt Romney seems hellbent on self-destructing on the weight of his own 1% privilege and his disdain for the needs and the concerns of the 99%. No matter how he tries to spin away his "47%" comments, we all know what he really meant. And we all know what he still believes.


And guess what? Dean Heller also knows this. That's why he tried so hard last night to run away from Romney & Ryan. It's too bad for him (and so good for Nevada Democrats) that Heller's own extensive record points otherwise.

NV-04: From Delusional to Just Plain Desperate

Last night, Rachel Maddow pointed out the disturbing trend of G-O-TEA Congressional candidates campaigning on racially charged "wedge issues".

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As soon as I saw this, I started thinking about what's been happening here in Nevada as Danny Tarkanian continues his campaign of nonstop race baiting. No really, think about it. He's been bashing President Obama and Steven Horsford on immigration reform while he touts his support from anti-Latino and anti-immigrant hate groups. And while he suggests Horsford isn't "black enough", Tarkanian can win African-American voters because he plays basketball! So far, Baby Tark's campaign has been nothing short of appalling in its embrace of this kind of ugly "campaigning".

And now, Baby Tark and his allies are throwing a temper tantrum because Horsford is calling them out on what they're doing.

Horsford, the first African-American state senate majority leader, called on Tarkanian to condemn a blog post by conservative operative Chuck Muth that mocks a tweet Horsford sent about the anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation.

“Steven Horsford continues to play the race card (he’s black) with this mindless, irrelevant re-tweet of a White House tweet on Saturday,” Muth wrote on his blog of Horsford’s tweet about the Emancipation Proclamation. “Sounds like somebody’s scared by last week’s poll showing him losing the urban vote to his white-bread Republican opponent, Danny Tarkanian.”

In his blog post, Muth also chides Horsford for using “two black kids” playing basketball in one of his television ads. Horsford has criticized Tarkanian for implying he can win the black vote because of his work with black youth through his non-profit basketball clinic.

The children in Horsford’s ad are his own.

“This shot was of me playing with my children in our backyard,” Horsford said in a written statement. “And to refer to my kids as just some ‘black kids playing basketball’ is extremely offensive. My children will be off limits in this campaign. I won’t accept my kids being exploited as pawns in a political game and these racially charged attacks must stop.”

This is what Chuck Muth is attacking.



And even though Baby Tark's campaign is now pretending to be offended by what Muth said, Muth is only piggybacking off Tarkanian campaign messaging. And even though Danny Tarkanian pretends to want to "talk about the important issues we face", the reality of this race is far from that. No really, he's deliberately race baiting to distract from the real issues.



Baby Tark and Muth can cling onto faulty data for as long as they want, but the real fact of the matter is that Mitt Romney is tanking here in Nevada... And Dean Heller is at greater risk of going down with Romney than ever before. Danny Tarkanian is their fellow G-O-TEA traveller, he's at risk of going down along with the both of them. So in a desperate move to save his own skin, Baby Tark is tossing these racial attacks at Steven Horsford. And apparently, he can't tell that his pure desperation is showing.