Fringe Is the New Mainstream

Once upon a time, this was merely an oddball case out in a rural corner of Southern Nevada. Not all that long ago, hardly anyone outside the Virgin Valley knew who Cliven Bundy was. He was just the local outlaw rancher who was running his cattle onto federal property (and far beyond designated grazing territory) without paying his fees.

Once upon a time, this was merely a local embarrassment. But now, the Nevada Republican Party has taken up Cliven Bundy's (illegal) cause. And the Koch-topus has taken up this cause and broadcasted it on G-O-TEA media networks nationwide. And the entire world is looking at our state and wondering what the hell we're smoking.

Welcome to Nevada. In our state's Republican Party, fringe is the new mainstream. In this party, Sue Wagner is ostracized to the point of severing ties altogether while Cliven Bundy is celebrated to the point of being declared some sort of outlaw "folk hero".



However, it's no longer just the Nevada Republican Party. It's nationwide. #BundyRanch has been trending nationwide for nearly three weeks. And it's become the latest & greatest cause celebre for G-O-TEA politicians nationwide.

Just a decade ago, the Bush Administration would have used the "domestic terrorist" label to describe the Bundy Gang. But now that Senator Harry Reid (D) is employing the same definition of "domestic terrorism" that Former President George W. Bush used while he was in The White House, G-O-TEA media personalities are feigning "OUTRAGE!!!" while they spread more (already debunked) conspiracy theories about his alleged role in #BundyRanch.

Welcome to the Republican Party of 2014. There, fringe is the new mainstream. Since Sean Hannity has officially declared his undying love & admiration for Cliven Bundy and his merry gang of (fellow) outlaws, G-O-TEA politicians must follow his lead. And more importantly, since the Koch Empire is all in for #BundyRanch, G-O-TEA politicians from across the nation have been endorsing the Bundy Gang's calls for anarchy at gunpoint.

Once upon a time, the Republican Party was known as the "law & order party". Now, it's become the "outlaw & chaos party". Fringe is the new mainstream. And the crazier one sounds, the better chance one has of winning a G-O-TEA primary.

Rory Be Gone? Get to the Root of It

"The love of money is the root of all kinds of evil"- 1 Timothy 6:10, Bible

It's saddening to see this...

In one of the most brazen schemes in Nevada history, gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid’s campaign formed 91 shell political action committees that were used to funnel three quarters of a million dollars into his campaign, circumventing contribution limits and violating at least the spirit – and maybe the letter – of the laws governing elections.

Reid, who was fully aware of what was done, essentially received more than $750,000 from one PAC – 75 times the legal limit -- after his team created dozens of smaller PACS that had no other purpose other than to serve as conduits from a larger entity that the candidate funded by asking large donors for money. Indeed, the shell PACs were formed in the fall and dissolved on Dec. 31, after they had served their short-term function, which was to help the candidate evade campaign contribution laws.

Reid solicited donations for the Economic Leadership PAC, which raised more than $800,000 over a five-month period – donations that were then disbursed in $10,000 increments to dozens of other PACS, which quickly funneled the money back to the candidate’s campaign account.

But why would any of us really be surprised? This is the system we have, and the politicians who raise the most corporate money are rewarded.

Already, we are hearing of "OUTRAGE!!!" over this... But this is merely the symptom. Hardly anyone in Carson City wants to talk about the disease.

Hmmm... I wonder why?

Nevada’s campaign finance laws are written to favor incumbents and the special interests that fund them — and that won’t change any time soon.

Let’s say a candidate is weighing a run against an incumbent and wants to know how much money the office-holder has. That’s nearly impossible because candidates for office aren’t required to report money in the bank.

Perhaps a constituent wants to see who is funding a candidate’s campaign before deciding how to vote. Even getting that basic information can prove tricky. Many reports are written by hand and are suspiciously hard to read.

The reports also can’t be searched electronically, making it difficult to track an individual donor’s contributions.

Critics also take issue with the schedule for releasing candidates’ contribution and expense reports.

For years, Ross Miller has lobbied The Legislature to reform our horribly antiquated Nevada campaign finance laws to make them more transparent. But for some reason, it keeps getting killed.

Hmmm... I wonder why?

Maybe instead of screaming about the symptoms, we should look at the disease.

And what might be the disease, you ask? Go back to the top of this diary.

Must we really keep asking what the problem is? It's all the corporate money flooding our system, buying and selling candidates to the highest bidder, and silencing all those who can't afford to bribe their way into power. We are now seeing this on the national level with the Koch family and their fellow "Tea Party, Inc." comrades in bloated checkbooks trying to buy wholesale control of our entire government, but it seems Nevada has been plagued by this kind of manipulation for even longer.

[Now Senator] Sheila Leslie, D-Reno, said campaign finance reform is unlikely without constituent pressure.

“The only way it’s going to happen is if the public demands it,” she said. “The people who benefit the most from loose campaign finance rules are those in elected office.”

The ultimate solution to the state’s transparency problems, Leslie said, is public financing of campaigns.

“If you take the money out, you’ll get a lot more qualified people to run for office,” she said. “You’ll take away the power of special interests, who will not have as much influence.”

Sheila Leslie is right. And so is Bill Moyers. So who else is listening?

Instead of whining about the symptoms, we need to take on the disease. In the near term, it helps to have a better idea of who is donating to whom. And in the long term, we need to make people understand that the only way to clean the system is to clean the money supply.

So before I hear anyone else screaming about what Rory Reid did or didn't do, or whatever new campaign money scandal soon emerges, I want to hear real solutions. Like Clean Money. Seriously, it's time to put up or shut up.

Home Means Nevada: The Congressional Redistricting (Part I)

(Note: I like to comment over at Swing State Project, so I decided to try my hand at redistricting and create a map that we might see emerge from The Legislature later this year. So here it is... And there it is at SSP as well.)

It is here. After hours of careful line drawing and days of poring over precinct results, the map has arrived. This is Nevada redistricted, baby!

So will the actual final map look something like this? Honestly, I don't know for sure. Perhaps legislators on both sides of the aisle will want even safer seats and are willing to configure some gruesome looking districts to get them... Or perhaps last minute talks of redistricting collapse as a casualty in an ongoing state budget brawl, leaving the courts to ultimately draw the lines. But most likely, as is usual tradition, The Nevada Legislature will agree on some sort of last minute budget deal, and on a bipartisan redistricting gerrymander.

Still, this year is different. As population continues to swell in Clark County (Greater Las Vegas), political power is slowly-but-surely shifting southward as well. Clark is destined to pick up as many as three legislative seats from the north, as well as a brand new Congressional District. For the first time ever, three Las Vegas area politicians will likely be sent to The House of Representatives.

And for the first time ever, Nevada will likely have three open House seats! It's looking increasingly likely that both Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) will run for the US Senate seat currently held by John Ensign (R-Sleaze), so legislators may very well be drawing the new district map with this in mind. And more importantly, they will likely be keeping in mind that some of their own, as well as a few powerful friends outside, will want to run in each of these open seats.



In drawing this map, I had several objectives in mind. First, I didn't want to grossly "over-gerrymander" DeLay style, especially since law suits are already being filed here. But while I didn't want to go overboard, I did clearly have campaign politics in mind while drawing these districts. There are two minority-majority seats, one having a Latino plurality, designed to elect Democrats, and two seats engineered to be as Republican leaning as possible.

So did I succeed? We'll have to wait and see. Nevada Democrats may very well see unprecedented primary action in NV-01 and NV-04. And while NV-02 and NV-03 are currently held by Republicans, they will have to continue to fight an increasingly tough battle against changing Reno and Las Vegas demographics in the decade to come.

So enough of me blathering on and on... Let's check out the new districts!



NV-02

Population: 675,162
69.4% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

First up, the second district. (We're starting north, and heading south.) Dean Heller currently represents this seat. And even though he's only done so since 2007, it seems pretty natural for him. He's a long time Carson City person (both in residence and in Nevada political experience), and he has a conservative-but-not-too-fire-breathing persona that allows him to win comfortably a district that only barely voted for John McCain (by fewer than 100 votes!) in 2008.

However, this will likely change. Again, Heller may very well soon announce his campaign for US Senate, leaving this seat open for the first time since Jim Gibbons left this seat to run for Governor in 2006. And due to Reno area growth, NV-02 has to shed some rural territory to meet the new Census Bureau population guideline. So what happens?

Long story short, NV-02 is now a district that narrowly voted for Barack Obama and Sharron Angle. It's a closely divided district that will provide a challenge for the typically mighty Washoe Republicans, in that they will need to settle on a candidate who can please GOP primary voters while being able to win enough moderate voters in the general election to keep this seat in GOP hands.

Who's All In?

Again, Dean Heller looks to be out, but a final decision hasn't yet be made, so he might still surprise us by staying put. Of course, there has also been plenty of talk of Sharron Angle running (again) for this seat. Even though she carried this district by 5.8% in her Senate run against Harry Reid last year, 2012 will be a Presidential year with higher Reno area turnout. And as we saw on the campaign trail last year, Angle couldn't even make peace with her fellow Washoe Republicans, so she will have a much harder time holding onto this seat than someone like Heller (who narrowly beat Angle in the 2006 NV-02 GOP primary).

The Wild Cards

Funny enough, I haven't heard much gossip (yet) over who may be angling for this seat... Other than the obvious. And even though they were just recently sworn into The State Senate (one elected, the other appointed), Reno Republicans Ben Kieckhefer and Greg Brower may be attractive to GOP leaders as they likely search for electable mainstream conservatives to stop Sharron Angle. On the Democratic side, the options aren't quite as wide. Nevada State Treasurer Kate Marshall does live in Reno, but she hasn't expressed interest in running for Congress... Can Sharron Angle change that?

2010 US Senate Results
49.6% Angle (R)
43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
49% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican if Dean Heller runs here again, but upgraded to Leans Republican if Heller runs for Senate, and upgraded further to Tossup should Sharron Angle run to replace him!

NV-03

Population: 674,792
66.5% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

In the "Republican Wave" year of 2010, Joe Heck barely won with less than 50% of the vote and by fewer than 2,000 votes. That worries Nevada Republicans, and that's why GOP legislators (especially those in Clark) will likely go to the mat to make NV-03 safer for Heck.

Mr. "War Hero" Heck could barely beat supposedly reviled "Las Vegas LIB'RUL!!!" Dina Titus by fewer than 2,000 votes, and for Heck's campaign to succeed in a likely more Democratic friendly environment in 2012, this must change. So it has... At least here on my map.

Dina's political base is widely acknowledged to be the progressive minded, ethnically diverse, labor union heavy, and LGBT friendly confines of The East Side, also known as "Paradise Township", which consists the older neighborhoods just east of The Las Vegas Strip. So to shore up Heck, I removed The East Side from NV-03 and placed it instead in the newly created NV-04 seat (more on that later!).

Now in addition to that, Heck also had a problem much closer to home. Even though Heck lives in Henderson, both he and Sharron Angle lost a number of Henderson precincts just down the hill from him in uber-exclusive Roma Hills, in the slightly older (meaning built in the 1980s and 90s) and increasingly Democratic friendly neighborhoods of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch. So to further shore up Heck, I also placed these areas in NV-04 (again, more on that later, including who this also helps!).

Instead, I gave Heck only the most Republican friendly parts of NV-03, and supplemented them with mostly GOP heavy areas previously in NV-01 and NV-02. The perennially stylish and upscale Summerlin development (including "retiree heaven" Sun City Summerlin) is almost entirely reunited here, and joined by a number of previously fast growing Northwest and Southwest valley exurbs. From there, NV-03 almost exclusively picks up the most conservative neighborhoods of Henderson, including wealthy Seven Hills and Anthem (including "retirement resort community" Sun City Anthem), as well as Old Henderson. In addition, NV-03 takes in all the rural Clark County communities (such as Mesquite, Primm, and Laughlin) outside The Las Vegas Valley.

Oh, and of course, all those rural areas previously in NV-02, from Ely to Hawthorne to Pahrump, have to go somewhere. They end up here... But they could end up being a double-edged sword for Joe Heck.

Who's All In?

From all indications, Joe Heck wants to run for reelection, and this map will surely entice him to do so again. However, he's not completely out of the woods yet. In fact, like the situation in NV-02, he will have to balance appealing to moderate suburban voters who may very well vote for President Obama again (who STILL won this district in 2008) with keeping "tea party" GOP primary voters happy. It's no easy task.

The Wild Cards

Should "Tea Party, Inc." ever fall out of favor with Heck, or Heck just decides to run for yet another higher office later this decade, they have a number of local GOPers to choose from. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Las Vegas) is seen by many as a rising "tea party" superstar, and State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) is a long time right-wing stalwart. They're basically Vegas' answer to Sharron Angle, and Cegavske has already dropped hints of a future Congressional run. And of course, it's not like "Chicken Lady" Sue Lowden is ever really leaving the political stage any time soon.

However, they can easily be stopped cold in their tracks. Why? Look at the partisan numbers. Angle only barely won this district last year, and Obama may very well win this district again next year. Joe Heck may have a hard enough time locking down this seat, but the task becomes even more difficult should he ever leave (or be primaried out).

Even though the rural areas (save for Mineral County) may be incredibly difficult for any Democrat to win, a Democrat may once again win this district if he or she can run up the margin enough in Vegas. In the future, the incredibly smart and talented State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) may have a once-in-a-lifetime opening to go from Carson's Capitol to Capitol Hill... Or perhaps it will be Henderson Mayor Andy Hafen, someone from a long-time "Nevada royal family" who lives in the slice of Henderson staying in NV-03... Or maybe wonky "deficit hawk", Clark County Commissioner, and current Las Vegas Mayoral Candidate Larry Brown (D-Summerlin)?

2010 US Senate Results
Angle (R) 48.5%
Reid (D) 46.3%

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican



NV-01

Population: 675,212
44.4% Latino (38.7% voting age)
31.7% White (37.3% voting age)
14.7% African American (14.7% voting age)



The State of Play

"Your Favorite Congresswoman", Shelley Berkley, may soon be looking to move to greener pastures. And who can blame her? She's back in the minority in The House. She doesn't have the best relationship with Nancy Pelosi. In many ways, she's boxed in... Unless she stomps outside that box in her signature bedazzled pumps and forges new ground with a Senate run.

So that may very well happen, and if it does we have yet another open seat battle here in Nevada! But unlike NV-02, all the drama will be in the Democratic primary.

Assuming Shelley runs for Senate, her Summerlin area stomping grounds are moved aside to NV-03 and NV-04, so NV-01 can become more of a minority-majority district and help the state's Congressional Delegation better reflect the diversity of our fine state.

So instead, some heavily Latino Northeast precincts previously in NV-03 are moved here, even as other heavily Latino East Side precincts are shifted from NV-01 to the new NV-04 seat. Now, Latino and African American heavy North Las Vegas becomes the centerpiece of the district, complemented by the Democratic dominant inner city neighborhoods of Las Vegas.

See the recurring theme here? Notice how this affects the 2012 field below.

Who's All In?

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) had been seen as a rising star for years, but now he's made it to the top. He's among the most powerful pols in Carson City today, as well as the highest ranked African American in state government alongside Supreme Court Chief Justice Michael Douglas. His career has been illustrious, but it hasn't always been easy.

He's now locked in a tough budget battle with Governor Brian Sandoval (R) and GOP legislators, and he is one of the very people overseeing this entire redistricting process. If he truly wants to run for Congress, he has to make miracles happen in Carson City this year, otherwise...

The Wild Cards

"Conventional Wisdom" here in Vegas may again be turned on its head. After all, this is now a Latino plurality seat. State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) knows this first hand as one of the youngest Senators, as someone raised in an immigrant Mexican American family who climbed his way all the way up here, and as someone who's succeeded despite earning the ire of the once omnipotent Culinary 226. While Kihuen himself hasn't expressed interest in running, especially after just being elected as State Senator, his name has been floated around.

State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) actually has signaled interest in running, but he's probably too moderate to win the Democratic primary in this district.

And sorry, Republicans, but there are virtually no GOP candidates who even want to try here.

2010 US Senate Results
62.9% Reid (D)
32.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
67% Obama (D)
31% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+14

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

NV-04

Population: 675,294
49.0% White (53.4% voting age)
27.0% Latino (23.2% voting age)
11.5% Asian American (12.0% voting age)



The State of Play

This is the story of "The Comeback Kid". After being beat up and beat down, it's time to rise again and shine in the glorious Mojave Desert Sun. But wait, whose comeback are we talking about?

Can it be Dina Titus'? After all, she's no stranger to comebacks. After her surprisingly-but-still-painfully close loss to Jim Gibbons in the 2006 Gubernatorial Election, she was written off for (politically) "dead". But when Democrats wanted to contest NV-03 in 2008 (and Harry Reid's political team wanted to do away with Jon Porter as a possible 2010 candidate against him) and their originally preferred candidate turned out to be a dud, they had nowhere else to go. Dina obliged, and she then found her redemption... Only to lose it again last year, and by less than 2,000 votes! But is Dina's story really over?

Or can Rory Reid's find a new beginning? He was heralded for ending a painful period of local political corruption culminating in the saucy, racy "G Sting" FBI probe that took down a voting majority of Clark County Commissioners for taking bribes from stripper clubs out to put rival clubs out of business. He was commended for thinking ahead and pushing Clark County to take seriously matters of sustainable growth. He was seen as a real contender, then the 2010 Gubernatorial race happened and he was lost in translation as the Reno powers that be championed Brian Sandoval as their "anointed one". It was so strange to see Rory's political career cut short so abruptly last year, but can it be regrown?

Or can Barbara Buckley's be reborn? After all, she was seen as the most powerful Assembly Speaker seen in ages. She was the once dismissed "bleeding heart liberal" who then rocked the political establishment with legislative accomplishments on everything from patients' rights to child welfare to home foreclosure mediation and prevention. And at one point, she looked to be quite the formidable candidate for Governor... Until she stepped aside for Rory Reid... But will she be so willing to step aside again?

Funny enough, all three of these big name Clark Democrats live in this newly created Congressional District. It starts in the more Democratic friendly Summerlin area neighborhoods, then leaps down to Buckley's home base of Spring Valley, then crosses The 15 and Las Vegas Boulevard to jump into Dina's East Side turf, then turns south to take in Rory's 'hood in the Green Valley part of Henderson. Either there will be some heated back room negotiations among party leaders on who gets this seat, or there will be a primary so exciting it may even eclipse the drama of the 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary that Dina wasn't "supposed to win".

The Wild Cards

But wait, the list of candidates isn't even over yet! There's another potential suitor possibly waiting in the wings. After Barbara Buckley was termed out of The Assembly last year, John Oceguera became the new Speaker. However, this gig won't last long. He will be termed out himself next year. And even though he himself hasn't suggested it, his name has also been rumored for a run here. If he wins, he will be Nevada's first Native American member of Congress. His challenge will probably be succeeding in this legislative session (a shared goal with Horsford) and not letting the recent drama over Las Vegas/Clark County firefighter pay take him down (even though he's actually a North Las Vegas firefighter, and they've had no labor trouble there).

On the Republican side, however, it's slim pickings. Perhaps Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) or State Senator Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) can try, but both are far too conservative to even get close. After all, both only barely defeated their Democratic opponents last year.

2010 US Senate Results
55.9% Reid (D)
39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
60% Obama (D)
37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic for now... And probably eventually becoming Safe Democratic barring any major scandal or unusually strong GOP candidate.

So this is my first Nevada map, a map I had with state legislators and certain big name pols in mind. In the future, I may draw more maps under different scenarios, such as Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley staying put in The House, or what might happen should The Legislature come crashing down over the state budget, forcing the courts to draw the final lines.

Let me know what you think and/or if you have your own maps to share. :-)

10 of '10: Gibbons Be Gone?

While much of the attention (especially among the out of state "politicos") was focused on the topsy turvy US Senate race (and we'll get to that later), probably one of the big stories of 2010 that many just seemed to shrug off was the slow motion collapse of Jim Gibbons' political career.

Back in February, I looked at his last ditch effort to save his political career. Remember what he did? He took his "no new taxes" mantra to such ridiculous lows it would have been laughable...

Oh, joy. He's back to cause more damage and destroy this state. Why is it that it seems like no one is doing anything to stop him?

We all know that "Luv-Guv Gibbons" doesn't give a sh*t about our state. This is all just a grand political game for him. It's his last chance to win the GOP nomination for reelection.

He cares nothing about slashing the social safety net to shreds, denying people badly needed health care, destroying what's left of our education system once and for all, and all around reducing our state to the equivalent of a small, underdeveloped third-world country.

And for what? For a failed far right ideology? For a failed Republican campaign slogan?

If it hadn't worked.

Of course, his "no new taxes" promise was just another lie. He had no problems raising fees on the poor and middle class, so long as it meant sparing the super-rich from paying anything close to their fair share. But even though everyone in Carson City wanted to distance oneself from Gibbons the failed politician, hardly anyone seemed to muster the courage to call out Gibbon's ridiculous policies for the failures they are.

And then, all of a sudden, Gibbons' poll numbers rose. Might the "walking dead man" be in for a resurrection? Perhaps GOP primary voters were responding positively to his "no new taxes" BS, his law suit against federal health care reform, his naked pandering to crazed, xenophobic teabaggers, and all the rest of his political street theater?

Nope, they ultimately didn't...

Or did they?

It seems the Nevada GOoP wanted the appearance of "cleaning house" by removing Gibbons in the primary, but in reality the "moderate" Sandoval has had to flip-flop so far to the right that he's made himself into essentially a carbon copy of Jimbo the Gube (sans scandaliciousness). We'll have to see in the coming weeks and months whether Nevadans want to give Gibbons a second chance... Vicariously, through Sandoval.

I had to stare down this new reality in August, when I read between the lines of all the flowery rhetoric Brian Sandoval was spewing.

Behind Brian Sandoval's flowery rhetoric was something truly frightening. Naomi Klein wrote an amazing book three years ago, called "The Shock Doctrine", that explains how the radical right has used disasters and times of upheaval to sneak through their corporate right agenda of deregulation and privatization. And reading between the lines of Sandoval's statements last night, it became crystal clear he and his economic team are looking to "shock doctrine" Nevada by using our recession and budget crisis to slash public education, starve our entire public infrastructure, and let the corporate welfare agenda roll. [...]

We all know we can't cut our way out of this problem. As we've talked about before, there's hardly anything left to cut! And more and more state legislators are now saying the obvious that we have no choice but to look at new revenue. We know the mining industry can afford to pay its fair share, and we know corporate giants like Wal-Mart and Target have avoided paying their fair share for decades. It's time to finally address this and institute fair and progressive tax reform to save our state.

Pink Floyd summed it up best: Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

And what made this even more depressing is that Rory Reid could hardly put up a fight. By the time this ad hit the airwaves...



His fate was sealed.

So now, we're stuck with Brian Sandoval, who is already doing his darndest to become "Gibbons 2.0".

So what does Brian Sandoval want to do? Placate his new teabagger friends by starving the state to death? Or listen to actual knowledgeable people who are urging us to finally make that down payment on diversifying our economy and creating a better Nevada?

Meet the new Gube, same as the old Gube...

But can this story get a different ending? Jon Ralston hinted on Sunday that the demand for a new direction is real...

One of the state’s most successful businessmen was on the phone and he was beside himself — as he said others are — about the upcoming legislative session. But, specifically, about Gov.-elect Brian Sandoval.

“There are a lot of very smart people, and we are all just shaking our heads,” said the business leader, to whom I granted anonymity so he would talk freely. “There were a lot of people who thought he (Sandoval) would get elected and soften his rhetoric.”

Trust me, dear readers, this man is no tax-happy lunatic. He is a thoughtful guy whose business has taken a gigantic hit during the Great Recession. But he — and he says several others who have been meeting to discuss the state’s future — are concerned that the governor-elect’s inflexibility on new revenue could be an impediment to the state’s economic future, especially if cuts in education are implemented.

“The business community is speaking as much as ever with one voice,” he told me. “It’s happening.”

I have heard about this convergence for months, with gaming and mining and chamber types realizing that the lack of a long-term plan while enacting devastating cuts could … obviate the need for a long-term plan.

“If those cuts happen, we’ve gone so far back,” he lamented before his frustration resurfaced. He fretted “people will not stay engaged” and that it “will take 20 years to get back” to a low level of service.

I have picked up on this frustration from other engaged business types, who are sick of the partisan maneuvering and the binary “to tax or not to tax” discussion. And they were counting on Sandoval to be the leader who could move the state beyond it.

But it's increasingly looking like Sandoval won't be the one to provide it. So who will? Look around you. We will have to.

Rory 3.0?

It seems Rory Reid's campaign is going through another transition. Early on, it seemed Rory was just waiting for Jim Gibbons to fall... No, make that drunkenly stumble upon his own sword while attempting to flirt with yet another fair maiden. But unfortunately, Brian Sandoval changed that equation.

Then, we saw "Mr. Education Fix It". I really think he offered some good ideas...





But there were two major problems. One, Rory didn't want to talk about how he'd pay for his plan. And two, in my humble opinion he didn't stress enough the economic reality of broken down schools. Remember when I wrote this in March?

[T]he casinos can no longer be counted upon as a "free ride". We can't just expect new casino construction to prop up demand for construction jobs, which props up demand for new housing, which props up demand for housing construction, which props up the rest of Southern Nevada's economy. We may have lucked out in seeing this model work from 1989 to 2007, but all it really did was hide the weaknesses in this shaky economic model that ended up being exposed when "The Great Recession" hit and all the artificial demand for new casinos, new homes, new whatever fell like a row of dominoes. [...]

So again and again, we come back to this dilemma. As long as our education system is broken and as long as we continue to make ourselves overdependent on the casinos and casino-fueled development, Las Vegas will continue to suffer under this radical boom and bust cycle that lives and dies on discretionary consumer spending. Sorry, but this is not how a major metropolitan area with 2 million residents and a state with over 2.7 million residents can survive!

This is what Rory needed to illustrate in his ads. This is what he needed to talk about over and over and over again. And it seemed he was starting to "get it" and see some traction, then it stalled.

And on Wednesday, it looked like the great reveal of a new strategy, perhaps "Rory 3.0". Perhaps last week's ad was the sign of what's to come, but we definitely saw a change of course on Wednesday.











Apparently, Rory has a new attitude. He's populist! He cares for us! He's standing up against the big corporate interests!



Then Ralston blew it all up. Of course, we all know who Brian Sandoval stands with... But it isn't easy to get all "populist" when one is backed by many of the same power players who stand with the other guy. Sigh...

So what can be done? Honestly, I'm still trying to figure that out. I really think Rory Reid wants to do good for Nevada... Lordy knows he's been doing his best to turn things around on the Clark County Commission!

I just hope there's still time to turn things around. As Bill Clinton said on Wednesday, if Rory can reframe this on who can turn Nevada around, he can win. It just comes down to that. So is Rory up to the challenge?

We shall see.

Btw, here's the full rally in case you want to bask in that aura again. I also have more from Wednesday on my Twitter. ;-)

Heads Up: I'll Be at Rory Reid's Rally with President Clinton Today!

In fact, I'm about to jump out the door so I can get to Mandalay Bay for this!

Former President Bill Clinton is in Nevada to give a boost to Democrat Rory Reid's struggling gubernatorial campaign.

The Democratic former president is due to speak Wednesday at a rally at the House of Blues at the Mandalay Bay resort on the Las Vegas Strip.

The appearance for Reid is part of a nationwide tour by Clinton aimed at helping vulnerable Democratic candidates. Reid trails Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval.

I'll be live tweeting from M-Bay this morning... As always, follow me @atdleft!

ZOMG! Remember That Guy Named Rory?

Apparently, Rory Reid still exists. There's been so much time spent on that Senate race (yes, I plead guilty!) and on a number of other hot new "scandals", gossip, and flotsam and jetsam that it's been easy to forget there's also a Gubernatorial election this fall! Well, rumor has it Rory intends to remind us about it again very soon...

Rory Reid’s campaign released a new Web video yesterday featuring the Democrat’s wife speaking about the candidate’s plans to reform education.

Cindy Reid is an English professor at the College of Southern Nevada nad has also worked as a high school teacher.

The 31-second ad on YouTube will likely air on television this fall, according to a press release from the campaign and features references to Reid’s education platform.

Honestly, I like this ad. It finally gets to doing what I've been thinking his campaign has needed to emphasize for some time, which is that GOOD SCHOOLS = GOOD JOBS.

Now if only I can see more details on how exactly Rory intends to make it happen. Apparently he's been fleshing out his budget plan some more in the last few weeks, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and take some time this weekend to see if I can find what I've so desperately been looking for.

But for now, I guess he's on my good side again. Don't blow it, Rory. ;-)

Unspinning Last Night's NV-Gov Debate

I was there... I was there! My inner nerd was so excited! This was my very first Gubernatorial debate in person. Finally, I could sit just a few feet away and listen for myself as the candidates answer the tough questions...

But sadly, most of those tough questions weren't really answered. I have to hand it to Elizabeth Crum on this:

In answer to Qs about "who won" tonight's #nvgov debate, I'd have to say...the people who watched the Emmys. Or the #RedSox game.

Unfortunately, it's true. If you forsook your duty as an American citizen and Nevada resident to pay attention to last night's debate and learn more about what the candidates plan to do on education, you didn't really miss too much.



Brian Sandoval lied about his education plan. He said he wouldn't cut anything except teacher salaries, but in reality his plan is far more dangerous than he hints. Because teachers really aren't paid all that much (Trust me, I've had friends and family work in the schools... It's NOT glamorous.) and they probably won't like Sandoval jumping in and demanding their contracts be reopened. If he really wants to cut $73 million from the schools' budget, he'll have to look at firing teachers.

In addition, he wants to divert $110 million from class size reduction into the general fund. Even though Sandoval spoke glowingly of "reducing class sizes", he actually wants to do away with smaller class sizes by defunding this program that's supposed to give students more of an opportunity to learn. It really shows where his priorities lie.

And finally, Sandoval wants to slash another $100 million from public schools with his voucher program to subsidize private schools. This is nothing more than a "Reverse Robin Hood" scheme of stealing from the working poor and middle class (in the form of calling our schools "failed" in order to defund them) to give to the super-rich (in the form of "bailing out" their private schools).

Behind Brian Sandoval's flowery rhetoric was something truly frightening. Naomi Klein wrote an amazing book three years ago, called "The Shock Doctrine", that explains how the radical right has used disasters and times of upheaval to sneak through their corporate right agenda of deregulation and privatization. And reading between the lines of Sandoval's statements last night, it became crystal clear he and his economic team are looking to "shock doctrine" Nevada by using our recession and budget crisis to slash public education, starve our entire public infrastructure, and let the corporate welfare agenda roll.





Rory Reid did seem to show some signs of life last night. He did challenge Sandoval on vouchers and stealing from public education to subsidize private schools. And he did challenge Sandoval on his other hidden cuts to public schools and our kids' education.

However, he refused to acknowledge the elephant in the room: How will we pay for "reform"? To his credit, Rory has come up with some smart ideas on education, from following through on class size reduction to local empowerment to freeing our kids from the shackles of "No Child Left Behind" and its flawed "standards". But again, he wouldn't talk about how he plans to pay for everything he's proposing.

We all know we can't cut our way out of this problem. As we've talked about before, there's hardly anything left to cut! And more and more state legislators are now saying the obvious that we have no choice but to look at new revenue. We know the mining industry can afford to pay its fair share, and we know corporate giants like Wal-Mart and Target have avoided paying their fair share for decades. It's time to finally address this and institute fair and progressive tax reform to save our state.

But for some reason, Rory won't talk about this. He's been told this is "bad politics". Too bad. It's good policy, and until Carson City acts on this, we won't ever have a fully functional state government.

So who won last night's debate? You tell me. And who lost? We did.

I wish I can be more hopeful. But until Rory truly calls out what Brian Sandoval is proposing and offers a clear alternative that gets our state out of this mess for good, I don't know what else to say.

(And btw, if you missed it last night and want to see the debate in full, here you go.)

NV-Gov: First Sharrontology, Now "Gibbons-Lite" Brian?

Oh, fun. Now our Gubernatorial election gets interesting...

A new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada governor's race shows Republican Brian Sandoval 10 points ahead of Democrat Rory Reid, but Reid appears to be gaining some ground. Sandoval's 50%-40% lead is narrower than the commanding 21-point lead he had in Rasmussen's previous poll from July 12.

Other recent polls have shown Reid -- the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's also up for reelection in Nevada -- far behind Sandoval, a former federal judge. The last surveys of the contest from PPP and Mason-Dixon both showed Sandoval up 14 points.

By the way, this is the same Razzy poll that actually showed Harry Reid leading "Scary Sharry" for the first time, so this must really stink for the Nevada GOoP!

Well, it doesn't help when Brian Sandoval insults many hundreds of thousands of Nevadans... Including his own family!

All of a sudden, it seems Brian Sandoval is Hispanic. How curious! The saying that you never know where life will take you is definitely true. In fact, on his life journey, Sandoval must have taken a fall, lost his memory and woken up believing what his campaign advisors are telling him -- “you’re Hispanic.” [...]

As for Sandoval, many people were left with their mouths wide open (including this columnist) with the candidate’s commercial recently launched on Hispanic television, which literally says, “With your help, Brian Sandoval can become the first Hispanic Governor in the history of Nevada.” It took a few minutes for me to recover after hearing that for the first time. I couldn’t believe it. Not even Bush, in his best moments of stuttering and muddled thinking, had shocked me as much. I thought it was one of his opponent’s commercials, or maybe it was meant to be ironic. But no, it wasn’t part of the Democratic strategy, or a parody; it seemed like a bad joke, but it was real [...]

Before he launched such an affirmation on television, his campaign must have psychologically prepared him so he wouldn’t suffer some sort of trauma upon seeing himself identified as Hispanic. It wasn’t long ago that he said in an interview on Univision that he vehemently supported Arizona’s anti-immigrant law. In reference to the same law, he was asked how he would feel if he his children were stopped in the street and asked for their papers. He answered, with a note of pride in his voice, “my children don’t look Hispanic.”

So Brian Sandoval is now ashamed of his own heritage? And he thinks he can get away with exploiting the Latin@ community by asking for their votes in front of them, but embracing anti-immigrant xenophobia when he thinks we're not looking? Ridiculous.

As usual, Brian Sandoval flip-flops and tries to be everything to everyone. If you're "Hispanic", he's your hombre! If you're anti-immigrant, he also hates brown people and is glad his kids don't look brown. If you're queer, he supports your equal rights. If you're a homophobe, he believes in the "sanctity of marriage" (even Gibbons'? Ensign's?). If you're concerned about education, he says his plan is better than Rory's. But if you're a teabagger, he promises not to raise taxes or deal with those icky unions.

I guess all Brian's lies are finally catching up with him...





And no matter what Sandoval tries to do to deflect criticism to Rory Reid, he can't hide from the fact that he has nothing to offer... On education, on jobs, on Nevada's future. All we see is empty rhetoric. I guess he's been listening to Sharron Angle too often...

"Pro-Business" Nevada... Has 4th Worst Business Climate in the Nation. Why?

SURPRISE! Yet again, we score a big EPIC FAIL... This time in business climate, something we're supposed to be "experts" on.

Nevada was ranked 47th of CNBC’s “Top States for Business” for the second year in a row.

CNBC measured the states in 10 categories, which included education, technology and innovation, cost of living, and quality of life. According to CNBC’s website, the group scored states on 40 metrics.

Texas, which was second overall last year, earned first place in 2010.

Nevada placed last in education and tied with Rhode Island for last place in economy — a measure of overall economic strength. [...]

The state scored 15th overall in business friendliness, which assessed “legal and regulatory” frameworks. Nevada ranked 19th for its workforce, as measured by the availability and quality of workers.

CNBC used test scores, the number of higher education institutions, class sizes and spending on education to rank each state’s schools. Education is important to businesses because it creates a strong base from which to recruit, the website said.

But wait, I thought we were a "shoo-in" to win this one. I mean, we do have the second lowest tax burden in the nation and the cheapest state government in the nation per capita (and, I might add, being far cheaper for the super-rich and big corporations than all the rest of us "unwashed masses"). So what caused this?

Oh yeah, that's right... WE HAVE NO REAL INFRASTRUCTURE! Our schools are constantly the butt of jokes. Our "transportation system" is always in a state of incomplete. Our "health care" system may actually be quite deadly. Basically, we're not the kind of place people feel comfortable living in and regularly doing business in.

And look at the places where people do feel comfortable living and working. Massachusetts and Minnesota have great schools. Virginia and Colorado have invested in the kind of infrastructure that has lured tech and biotech companies to their state. Even Texas, which scored #1 this year, invests far more in its state than Nevada!

Meanwhile, poor lil' Nevada, where the chamber of commerce always threatens to bolt when even hearing rumors of "the t word" coming, once again hits rock bottom along with "crazy, hippie, commie-loving pinko, lib'rul, anti-business" states like Mississippi, West Virginia, and Alaska. The common thread? Again, we don't invest enough in our own state and our own people!

I know some righties like to mock Rory Reid for talking so much about education (and occasionally not using his last name, whatever). But now that we think about it, is it really that crazy? Considering how states with great schools tend to have an easier time recruiting businesses, doesn't it now make sense?





Now if Rory could only come up with some plans to fully bring this state into the 21st century? Wait, that might require "the t word"? Well, look where all those "lowest taxes in the nation" got us so far.

Dina Titus, Stonewall Democrats, Henderson Democrats, & Even More Nevada Democrats at Boulder City Damboree Parade

OK, here was some of what I was up to this past weekend. I was hanging with Dina Titus, Joyce Woodhouse, Stonewall, Henderson Dems, Team Reid, and plenty more awesome Nevada Democrats.







We marched... And then many of us marched again in "the wet zone"... Yes, I got soaked! And so did Senator Woodhouse!

But then, I dried off and headed over to the Henderson Democratic Club's after party in Green Valley Ranch. And guess who I found? In addition to some friends & neighbors, Congresswoman Titus dropped by... And so did Rory Reid! He chatted with us for a few minutes about why he's running for Governor.





All in all, we had a great Third of July, and I think we threw some great celebrations for America's Birthday. Happy B-day, USA! :-D

Scenes from the Henderson Democratic Club Last Night

Rory Reid, Ross Miller, and Ellen Spiegel (my great Assembly Member) were among the luminaries coming to visit us at the Henderson Democratic Club pizza party last night.

All in all, it was a great event. Rory answered some questions on taxes (he's interested in reform, but didn't want to single out mining), education (which he was REALLY eager to discuss), and jobs. Ross Miller spoke about voter registration and participation, as well as some factoids on Nevada becoming "The Delaware of the West" when it comes to business incorporation. (Interesting stuff!) Oh, and my favorite Assembly Member was there to connect with us... And provide an award for the outgoing Henderson Dems President!

Good times, I say... See what you non-Hendersonians are missing out on? ;-)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Even Kos Admits Harry Reid Isn't Dead... But Work Still Cut out for Rory

My goodness! Can you feel the earthquake being felt from DC to SF? The DK/R2K poll is out, and...

It's the GOP's numbers that have fallen off a cliff. And one of them will emerge from the primary battered, bruised and broke, only to run into not just Reid's gazillions, but also with an agenda woefully out-of-step with Nevada.

I'll admit it -- I had written Reid off. But if there's a developing theme in this political season, it's the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And we can give the tea baggers a hearty and sincere "thank you" for doing the seemingly impossible -- making our bumbling Dems look good by comparison.

And why is he saying this?

General Election [June]

Harry Reid (D) 43 (41)
Sharon Angle (R) 37 (44)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (5)

Harry Reid (D) 42 (41)
Sue Lowden (R) 38 (45)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (4)

Harry Reid (D) 43 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 39 (43)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (6)

[Republican Primary]

Sharon Angle (R) 34 (13)
Sue Lowden (R) 25 (38)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 24 (28)

Favorable/Unfavorable

Reid (D) 40/52 (37/53)
Angle (R) 38/41 (41/29)
Lowden (R) 39/40 (42/34)
Tarkanian (R) 40/38 (44/33)

[January]

Harry Reid (D) 42
Sue Lowden (R) 51

Harry Reid (D) 41
Danny Tarkanian (R) 52

Reid (D) 34/55
Lowden (R) 45/26
Tarkanian (R) 48/31

As we had talked about yesterday, DC pundits are now starting to see in the Senate race what we've been seeing for some time. The Republicans have absolutely nothing to offer. They have no real policy solutions for anything. All they have are chickens and Scientology and famous last names. It's nice to see that Markos is also starting to understand now how our election is going.

But jeez, if only more of this magic could rub off on the Gube race...

[General]

Brian Sandoval (D) 51
Rory Reid (R) 41

Jim Gibbons (R) 31
Rory Reid (D) 52

[Primary]

Brian Sandoval (R) 48
Jim Gibbons (R) 27
Mike Montandon (R) 6

Ugh. I guess there's more to do to get Nevadans to realize what's really at stake. Yes, Jim Gibbons' horrible train wreck of a career in Carson City is mercifully coming to an end... But do we really want to be stuck with this guy?



Really, this guy?



This guy?



This guy??!!



Come on, THIS GUY??!!



Obviously, we still have our work cut out for us with the Gubernatorial race. Sandoval still thinks he can get away with telling the teabaggers one thing, more moderate-to-progressive groups something else, and the media something entirely different. And since we don't have much time left to expose him for what he really is, we need to get moving.

And Rory Reid's campaign needs to act! This was a good start, but he really needs to ramp it up and make a strong case to voters that he's the best candidate for Nevada's future. I sometimes wish he'd take stronger stances on tax reform (especially mining), but all in all I know he's more likely to fix our broken state government than someone (Sandoval) who's been a part of the same ol' game of "no new taxes" fallacies... Until it's such a gawd awful mess that we pass more regressive tax hikes and temporary quick fixes while still protecting the corporate fat cats and kicking the fiscal can even further down the road.

So there's plenty of hope for Nevada this fall... And plenty of work still left to do. I'm feeling increasingly confident about getting one Reid (the elder) past the finish line first, but let's see if both can ultimately make it. You know what I like to say: Two Reids, Infinite Possibilities". ;-)

NV-Gov: Rory Reid in Downtown Las Vegas on Saturday

Here's Rory Reid on Saturday, discussing education, jobs, and more on why he's the best person to help us achieve a better future in Nevada.



See, I told you I'd eventually get back to the Governor's race! I haven't forgotten. ;-)

Video of Rory Reid at Stonewall Last Week

(Also at Stonewall)

Courtesy of INTHELV:







And for another perspective on what happened at Stonewall, Brian Fadie wrote us up at Progress Now.

NV-Gov: Rory Reid Comes to Stonewall

(Also at Stonewall)

OK, OK, so I have another gig. In addition to following the wild and wonderful world of Nevada politics here, I'm also kind of a participant myself. And last night, my two interesting worlds collided when Stonewall did a very special community town hall with Rory Reid last night. Remember him? He's running for Governor.

So how was last night's community town hall? Quite interesting! In fact, we even had a lovely GOoPer stalker join us to participate in all the fun! (He even drank our booze, but we didn't throw him out because we're classy bitchez and we knew he wouldn't get the kind of "material" he was looking for anyway.) ;-)

Right off the bat was a question on how he'd bring diversity into the Governor's Office with his hiring practices. Rory Reid responded by saying that he'll be committed to hiring the best people from all diverse backgrounds.

Then we had a question on SB 283 and Clark County providing domestic partner (DP) benefits to county workers. This is when Rory Reid officially endorsed SB 283 and announced he fully supports comprehensive DPs. He also said he and his fellow Clark County Commissioners want to implement DP benefits for county employees and their spouses, but they must first do a financial study to measure the fiscal impact on the county budget. This elicited follow-up questions on why the county needs to study the fiscal impact of DP benefits when no one questions benefits for married workers. Rory responded to that by stating again that he wants to implement DP benefits, but also wants to make sure the county doesn't do something that will result in unnecessary layoffs.

So then, we had the next question. This one was on anti-discrimination laws, especially SB 207, which
bans discrimination based on sexual orientation. Now there are no laws in Nevada's books that outlaw discrimination based on gender identity, so currently transgender Nevadans have no protection. Would Rory support amending laws like SB 207 to include trans protections? Rory did say he wanted to make Nevada's anti-discrimination laws trans inclusive, but he couldn't recall SB 207 (which prompted Maggie McLetchie from ACLU Nevada to chide him on this later). (And by the way, I confess that I was the one who wrote this question.)

Next up was a question on education. I could sense a little sigh of relief from Rory on this, since education is much more his expertise. He was asked if there's too much of a focus on standardized testing, and he absolutely agreed that the tunnel vision focus on standardized tests stymies overall progress and limits learning opportunities for students who aren't visual or auditory learners, as well as more creative students who excel in subjects like the arts that can't be measured by standardized tests.

And finally, we had a question on immigration, and specifically on the issue of providing driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants. Washington (State), Illinois, and New Mexico already allow undocumented immigrants to receive regular drivers' licenses, while Utah provides a "lower tier" driver's license specifically for the undocumented and Wisconsin, California, and New Jersey are considering following suit. Rory answered by stating he understands the argument that this would actually make our communities safer, but he also said he can't yet take a position as he wants more time to study the issue and wants more time for the state to consider this question.

Oh, but Rory did endorse comprehensive immigration reform on the federal level and said this is what really needs to happen first... Hopefully, this was a gentle reminder for his dad to make sure Congress is working on this!

Now interestingly enough, there were no questions on the budget. And honestly, I was a little surprised by this. To his credit, Rory has released a long-term plan on making Nevada more successful and financially stable. It just would have been nice to hear his thoughts on this year's budget and next year's likely fiscal nightmare.

So this pretty much sums up our community town hall with Rory Reid. Again, it was great to see so many in the local LGBTQ community, along with our straight-but-not-narrow allies come in and participate. I really hope this is just the start of further conversation on the state of our State of Nevada and where we want to go in the future. Perhaps Rory doesn't have all the answers yet, but at least he's making an effort to answer these and other important question. Of course, it also helps that he's actually thinking about plans for Nevada's future.

All in all, I think Rory will do well as our next Governor. He just needs to keep listening and keep thinking of good answers. :-)

Poll: Gibbons Gaining in Primary, Reid Gaining in General, & Voters Prefer Tax Hikes Over Further Service Cuts... HUH??!!

So Harry Reid is really a "goner" this year? And Gibbons can't win the GOP primary? And Nevada voters will never, ever support a tax increase?

OK, time to throw that "conventional wisdom" out the window! Believe it or not, these are the results from Republican pollster Glen Bolger's recent survey of 500 likely Nevada voters funded by the Retailers Association of Nevada (a typically GOP-leaning outfit).

Let's start with the US Senate results:

[General Election]

42% SUE LOWDEN
37% HARRY REID
9% JON ASHJIAN

40% DANNY TARKANIAN
39% HARRY REID
11% JON ASHJIAN

21% JOHN CHACHAS
39% HARRY REID
22% JON ASHJIAN

32% SHARRON ANGLE
37% HARRY REID
16% JON ASHJIAN

[Republican Primary]

35% TOTAL LOWDEN
28% TOTAL TARKANIAN
1% TOTAL AMODEI
8% TOTAL ANGLE
4%^ TOTAL CHRISTENSEN
* TOTAL CHACHAS

So he's not there yet, but Harry Reid does look to be closing the gap that had widened to double digits just last month. It's interesting to see the the "analysis" in the charts try to spin this as good news for the Republicans, but it looks clear that when the real threat of the Tea Party candidate (I won't lie, it helps Reid) and real weaknesses of the GOP candidates are considered Reid suddenly becomes viable again. And remember, Reid just started airing TV ads late last year and his campaign hasn't even started "vaporizing" the eventual GOP candidate yet.

OK, so what about the Governor's race? Oh my, get ready for this!

[Republican Primary]

32% TOTAL GIBBONS
38% TOTAL SANDOVAL
9% TOTAL MONTANDON

[General Election]

50% BRIAN SANDOVAL
34% RORY REID
15% UNDECIDED

40% MIKE MONTANDON
40% RORY REID
19% UNDECIDED

36% JIM GIBBONS
47% RORY REID
14% UNDECIDED

It's looking increasingly clear that Sandoval will be the clear favorite if he wins the GOP primary, but (Rory) Reid will be the clear favorite is Gibbons wins the GOP primary. And fortunately for Rory Reid, Gibbons is (re)gaining ground among GOoPer voters (but NOT everyone else). So maybe "Governor Sandoval" isn't really inevitable?

Oh, and I'm sure this just killed the GOoPer pollsters!

And, thinking some more about the budget shortfall, would you rather the Governor and State
Legislature CUT SPENDING for state employee salaries and government services such as
education and health care, or RAISE YOUR TAXES to avoid these cuts?
5/09 2/10
40% 38% CUT SPENDING
47% 47% RAISE YOUR TAXES
3% 5% BOTH/PRIMARILY CUT SPENDING (DO NOT READ)
1% 2% BOTH/PRIMARILY RAISE YOUR TAXES (DO NOT READ)
7% 6% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3% 3% REFUSED (DO NOT READ) [...]

And, if the Governor and State Legislature were to raise taxes, who do you think should be
paying increased taxes? (DO NOT READ) (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES)
5/09 2/10
2% 1% SMALL BUSINESSES
13% 9% LARGE BUSINESSES
21% 17% CASINOS
6% 12% MINING COMPANIES
18% 16% THE RICH
3% 4% THE MIDDLE CLASS
53% 61% EVERYONE
3% 3% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
* 1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

It's so funny to see this despite all the attempting push-polling against this. Nevadans really are starting to "get it"! And while a corporate income tax still has plurality opposition, it's been gaining ground since last May (now only a 5% gap). And as you can see above, a fairer mining tax seems to be gaining steam.

So really, feel free to throw out all that "conventional wisdom" you've been hearing for the past few months. 2010 is just getting started, and things may change dramatically with major events coming up (jobs bill, health care reform, state budget, etc.).

Ralston's Odds on 2010... What He's Saying Now & My Take on It

Remember when Jon Ralston released his latest odds on 2010 in September and I added my $0.02? Well, it's time to do it again! He just released his latest 2010 predictions, and as usual I'll be adding my thoughts below:

- Ralston expects Harry Reid to survive this year and remain Senate Majority Leader next year. I agree, since we know how incompetent the GOoPers have proven themselves to be.

- Ralston thinks Sue Lowden will survive the GOP primary to win the honor of losing to Harry Reid this fall. And on this, I may just have to disagree. Sure, she has a slight lead in the polls now... But Danny Tarkanian seems to be more of a radical right favorite, Lowden still isn't trusted by so many in her own party, and Sharron Angle is gaining fast on both of them. Right now, I'll say Lil' Tark Shark has a slight edge over Lowden with Angle fast becoming a real upset possibility (which I'm sure the Reid campaign will REALLY appreciate!).

- Ralston says Brian Sandoval is favored to become our next Governor. And again, I'll have to disagree for now. No one really knows yet what will become of Rory Reid's game changing Clark County shake-up plan. And of course...

- Ralston is not expecting... Or should I say, he doesn't want Oscar Goodman to run for Governor as an Independent. And again, I'll have to disagree. Goodman already changed his voter registration, fought with Culinary and the public employee unions, and started speaking up more often on controversial state issues like statewide legalization of prostitution. Basically, it sounds to me like Goodman is running for Governor, he's doing so his way, and he doesn't care if Sandoval and Reid, Jr., have hurt feelings.

- Ralston expects Dina Titus to defeat Joe Heck and hold onto NV-03. I'll agree here, since I live here, I'm getting to know the district, and I just think our district is trending away from the GOP. The Democratic registration edge alone should be enough to prevent the GOoPers from becoming haughty... But they already have, and their pride is coming before the fall (again).

- Ralston says that Democrats will keep both houses of the Legislature. I agree, although I want to wait and see all of who's running where before I start making specific numerical predictions.

- And finally, Ralston thinks Republicans will hold a majority of the statewide constitutional offices. I'm not sure yet, as (like above) I want to see all the candidates before laying any bets here.

So in summary, this will be a very interesting 2010. It may be a somewhat bad year for Democrats, or it may be yet another chance for the Republicans to embarrass themselves. As the year goes on, we'll get a better idea of what to expect.

NV-Gov: Is Rory Reid Becoming Viable... Or Losing His Own Base? And Is He Even Doing What's Right for Clark County?

So Rory Reid released his "county rescue plan"... Just as the political chatter has been about whether he has any chance of becoming Nevada's next Governor and just as the federal courthouse shooting was rocking all of us in Las Vegas yesterday.

So what exactly did Rory Reid propose? Steve Sebelius explains the policy.

Toward the end of Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid’s news conference today — the one where he announced several government reforms — he allowed that the political fallout could cut either way. “I think it’s impossible to measure the political impact [of the reforms],” he said. “It might help me, it might hurt me.” But, he said definitively, “I was elected to do a job.”
Indeed, he was. And, if nothing else, you’ve got to give Reid credit for speaking up when he did, when staying silent might have been the more politically prudent course.
As for the substance of his proposals, it’s a quick list when one boils it down to specifics:
Transform University Medical Center into a non-profit, or a teaching hospital, “…or another financially viable model.” Since the county ran a deficit at UMC of $140 million in the last fiscal year, the number of “financially viable models” appear fairly limited.
Re-open public employee union contract negotiations. This is the most politically perilous of Reid’s suggestions, although it’s not something new. (He asked for concessions last year, too.) Of this year’s move, he said that “our labor agreements are not sustainable in the long term” and that “everything’s on the table.” For unions that have won good contracts during boom times, that’s not so good. And for Reid, running for governor and needing all the help he can get, it’s not exactly the way to win an endorsement.
Put about $300 million in public works infrastructure projects out to bid as soon as possible to create jobs.
Consolidate some IT, finance and human resources employees. (Apparently, many county departments each have their own IT, HR and finance employees.)
Past that, there were some semi-vacuous sound bites, things about “public-private partnerships” to create jobs, or “partner with the private sector to create jobs.” (Hey, that’s a great idea! Why, if only somebody said that a year ago, we’d probably all be rolling in cash right now!) But there was enough of substance to make it worthwhile for Reid to hold the news conference the day before he’ll bring these ideas before his colleagues.

Now of course, this isn't just about policy. It's also about the politics of the Governor's race. Rory Reid obviously thinks this is how to convince those skeptical-yet-still-undecided "fiscal conservatives" that he isn't some "evil lib'rul SOCIALIST union pawn!!111!!!1111!" And who knows, maybe this will work out for him.

But last I checked, labor unions are typically among Democrats' strongest supporters and partners. How will they feel about being dumped upon like this? Sure, it's not like Oscar Goodman, Brian Sandoval, or (especially!) "Luv-Guv" Gibbons is more likely to do anything to help working families. However, Reid, Jr., may be risking turning what should be his political base apathetic and more willing to stay home or vote "None of the Above" than vote for anyone at all.

And turning back to policy, I'm not totally convinced that turning UMC private will be helpful to anyone at all. After all, no matter what happens to UMC, Clark County still has the obligation of providing emergency care to the indigent.

Now regarding the county workforce, there certainly are redundant positions and departments (and especially management!) that can be streamlined and consolidated. However, there's no reason to demonize so many hard-working public servants and strip away their very livelihood. It's easy to bash "the evil, corrupt UNIONS!!!!11111!!!111!", but it takes real courage to be rational and strike a deal that's fair to these public servants while also preserving the services that Clark County residents rely upon.

So politically, I think there are risks. And policy wise, I think there are risks. But if Rory Reid somehow pulls it off while not gutting county government and/or throwing thousands more people into the unemployment lines, maybe this will all work out. And whatever happens next, this most certainly will be a game changer in the race for the state house.