(Not the) End of the Road

Late in 2010, it looked like she was approaching the end of the road. She had lost a hard fought reelection race. Between that and narrowly losing the statewide gubernatorial election of 2006, plenty of political pundits were declaring the death of Dina Titus' political career.

Obviously, they spoke too soon. The following year, redistricting changed the game. And Dina Titus was ready for a comeback.



She did face a rather interesting race in 2012... But she ultimately won. And not only did she win, but she dominated. And she definitely made her way back to Congress.

And since returning to Congress, Rep. Dina Titus (D-Paradise) has been working quite hard on a number of critical issues. And she hasn't forgotten why she's there in the first place.

Last Saturday, Rep. Dina Titus came to the Clark County Democratic Party Convention and addressed the crowd. Some of them were her former constituents, while others are her current constituents. Regardless, she wanted to fire them all up and get them ready for the 2014 cycle.



While Rep. Titus herself doesn't have to worry about her reelection race this year, she does seem to want to return to a Congress that's actually functioning. And that means her work is not yet finished. It's far from the end of the road for her, or for her fellow Nevada Democrats.

We Know How This Story Goes

Over the weekend, both major parties held biennial caucuses. As usual, Nevada Republicans enjoyed plenty of melodramatic moments. And as usual, Nevada Democrats had mostly quiet and well organized affairs.

Of course, we stopped by our local caucus location for Clark County Commission District G Democrats. And we were actually somewhat surprised to see the Painters' Hall fill up like that. The room held hardcore activists, local candidates, and even some high profile candidates.





State legislators reminded the audience that the balance of power in Carson City is at stake this fall. And of course, Congressional candidates reminded the audience that the balance of power in Washington (DC) is also at stake this fall.

Rep. Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) met with local NV-04 Democrats at his caucus site. NV-03 candidate Erin Bilbray made the rounds at various caucus locations with significant NV-03 territory, including the District G site in Henderson. And even up north, Washoe County Democrats got fired up and ready to go.

Meanwhile at the District G site, a very special (yet familiar) guest dropped by. Rep. Dina Titus spoke with caucus goers and let them knew she'd be working hard alongside them this year.







Once again, Nevada faces a fun filled and hotly contested even numbered year election cycle. And once again, Nevada Democrats are preparing as they know best. First come the caucuses, then come the voter registration drives, then come the field offices, then...

Well, you know how this story goes.

10 of 12: Congress

Yesterday, we discussed the amazing developments in #NVLeg this year. Today, it's time to jump up to the federal level and take a look at Congress.

Actually, the story of #nvhouse 2012 began in 2011 when redistricting was very much up in the air. And with a new "ungerrymandered" map being approved by the courts, the playing field was suddenly scrambled as politicians on both sides had to play a round of "Musical Chairs" to see where they'd land.

Meanwhile in the current session of Congress, all sorts of crazy emerged, particularly from the G-O-TEA run House. For one, the "War on Women" raged on as the radical right demanded more prodding into women's private lives. In addition, there were multiple attempts at repealing "Obamacare" and take health care away from millions of Americans. Oh, and while Nevada and other states were busy pursuing more renewable energy and green jobs, Congress was fighting over a recipe for economic and environmental disaster. And they never managed to address the "job creation" they promised to deliver (in 2010). And both Dean Heller & Joe Heck were at the center of all of this.

So this year, voters had a(nother) chance to have their say on all of this. In addition, some Nevada voters had the opportunity to chime in on the new NV-04 Congressional seat. And oh my, what a race that was. Danny Tarkanian tried yet again to land a steady paycheck with a solid pension a high elected office, and this time he attempted to do so by banking on his famous last name acting as a chameleon... And by smearing Steven Horsford. Yet despite Baby Tark's desperate attacks (aided by a last minute push by the likes of AFP), Horsford ultimately managed to win NV-04 and do so by a more comfortable margin than most everyone had expected.

Yet in the end, both Heller & Heck got lucky. With just enough "down-ballot drop-off", they managed to survive... Though Heller only did by the skin of his teeth and with less than 50%. But already, both of them are facing a major dilemma as the new Congress is about to begin. With President Obama reelected to a second term (with the help of Nevada) and the "Fiscal Cliff" fast approaching, will they let their party leaders cut a budget deal with Obama and Harry Reid? Or will they (again) cast their lot with "tea party" extremists by voting to push America "Off the Cliff" and into recession?

The story of the 2012 election cycle may be over, but the cast of characters here are destined to make waves again as the 113th Congress is about to begin.

NV-01: Yes, Chris Edwards Deserves a Debate... With Himself.

Ah, so Chris Edwards is back. It seems whenever we're in the midst of important developments in the hot races that people are actually paying attention to, Chris Edwards jumps out in a desperate move to grab attention. This is exactly what he's doing today... With help from our (never to be) "trusted" local "newspaper".

Oh, yes. They went there. Again!

While I certainly appreciate the value of debates in informing voters, Chris Edwards should think twice before cheering on his favorite "newspaper" and demanding more debates. Oh, and he should actually decide what he stands for!

He keeps claiming that somehow "Dina Titus hates Hispanics!" Yet so far, he has no proof of that. And whenever asked about his own ideas for Latin@ community empowerment, he is never able to separate himself from his own party's nonstop insults directed at Latin@ voters. Perhaps this is because Chris Edwards really does agree with his own G-O-TEA base on this?

And really, what else can Chris Edwards talk about? He contradicts himself on the Recovery Act. He can't say anything on health care. He can't completely decide how he wants to balance the federal budget. And again, he has no real substance when it comes to Latin@ outreach. So really, who is this dude and why is he running?

Before Chris Edwards demands more debates with Dina Titus, he needs to finish the debate he continues to have with himself.

No Se Puede, Republicanos

Look who's talking now. Desperate to look "moderate", Dean Heller is smearing Vaseline on the camera in hopes of deceiving Nevada Latinos. And guess who he's following down this path?

The Dean Heller and Mitt Romney campaigns seem to be taking their Hispanic voter outreach strategies from the same playbook.

Mitt Romney’s Hispanic supporter coalition is called “Juntos con Romney” (Together with Romney), and Heller’s is “Juntos con Heller.”

In July the Romney campaign released an ad featuring Craig Romney, the GOP presidential candidate’s son who spent time in Chile, addressing voters in Spanish about his father’s character.

On Friday, the Heller campaign came out with its own Spanish-language ad with a family member’s testimonial on the candidate’s core values. Heller’s wife, Lynne, in a similar style to the Craig Romney ad, speaks in Spanish directly to the camera.

So why are Dean Heller and Mitt Romney doing this? Look at their record.

In the past, Heller has sponsored legislation to limit election ballots to English-only, to mandate that the Free Application for Federal Student Aid only be filled out in English and to make English the official national language. He also previously supported a bill to end birthright citizenship.

Despite what his campaign spins, the fact of the matter is that Dean Heller has never really cared about Nevada's Latin@ communities. It's bad enough that he wants to take away many Americans' Constitutional right of birthright citizenship. It's even worse that he's often played to "tea party" xenophobia by pushing "ENGLISH ONLY!!!" nonsense. He's even gone out of his way to oppose the DREAM Act!





But again, it's not just Heller. And it's not just about immigration. Really, Mitt Romney has led the way for the entire G-O-TEA in setting an agenda that's downright hostile to Latin@ families. And unfortunately for him, the Obama campaign isn't letting him get away with it.



And what's even worse for Romney and Heller is that their own party continues to remind all of us of their true agenda. Joe Heck has continually worked against the best interest of all Nevada working families by voting to undermine Medicare, Medicaid, college student aid, and more. And in case that wasn't enough, he's declined to endorse the DREAM Act while speaking in support of Arizona's discriminatory SB 1070.

Oh, and that's not even the end of it for the Nevada G-O-TEA. Danny Tarkanian has actually tried to distance himself from his own record, but he only embarrassed himself further because he had earned the endorsement of the virulently anti-immigrant Minutemen in his last campaign for Congress (when he ran for US Senate in 2010). And just weeks ago, NV-01 G-O-TEA sacrificial lamb nominee Chris Edwards blew his own anti-immigrant cover after inartfully trying to smear Dina Titus as such.

All in all, there's really nothing about Mitt Romney, the leading Nevada Republicans, or their party's platform that's attractive to Latin@ voters. That's why they must deceive and distract. Yet despite all that Vaseline they want to smear onto the cameras, they can't fool an entire community to vote against their own best interest by voting for a party keen on xenophobia and anti-immigrant hysteria.

NV-01/NV-03: A Word on R-J Endorsements

Next time someone tells you how important an endorsement from a certain "newspaper" is, remind that one to read this editorial from October 3, 2010. Two years ago, Nevada was facing a clear choice in our US Senate election. And so much was at stake for our state. Even REPUBLICANS like Dema Guinn and the late Bill Raggio endorsed Harry Reid because of what he's done for Nevada. In addition, the traditionally center-right Reno Gazette Journal endorsed Reid because his Northern Nevada (!!!) based opponent was just too unqualified and extreme. Yet despite all that, this certain Las Vegas "newspaper" went all in for Sharron Angle!

Since this "newspaper" actually endorsed such an extreme and unqualified candidate for US Senate just two years ago, why are we supposed to take its endorsements seriously now? If Nevada's supposed "leading newspaper" could actually endorse a candidate who actually wanted to take a wrecking ball and slam it right into Nevada's economy, why are we supposed to lend this "newspaper" any gravitas with its current slate of endorsements?

I ask because teabaggers are already buzzing over this "newspaper" endorsing Joe Heck for reelection to Congress in NV-03 and Chris Edwards for Congress in the now open NV-01 seat. Frankly, I'm not surprised this happened. In fact, this is just standard operating procedure for this "newspaper".

After all, it already endorsed the Angle-Heck "tea party" agenda in 2010. It's just doubling down on the crazy in 2012, so it has to double down on Joe Heck and his ideological objections to saving the middle class foundation of our economy. I guess the "newspaper" buys Joe Heck's argument that attacking women's health care is a far better use of a Congressman's time than cooperating with The President and other Members of Congress to actually put more Americans back to work.

And then, there's Chris Edwards. Like a certain "Sharrontology Obtuse Angle", he has a penchant for talking out of both sides of his mouth and shoddily hiding his allegiance to "tea party" extremism. Oh, and he's already doing a great job following Angle's lead on "Latino community outreach". Wow. Just wow.

Honestly, it's irritating to even have to discuss this Las Vegas "newspaper" and its silly endorsements now. But apparently since some in the media still want to pretend that there's anything rational and/or significant about these endorsements, we must remember how and why this "newspaper" totally discredited itself in the first place. When even the widow of a REPUBLICAN Governor and the REPUBLICAN State Senate leader acknowledge that their own party screwed up in choosing its US Senate nominee, a "newspaper" shouldn't be rushing to endorse pure batshit crazy.

And we shouldn't be subjected to this "newspaper" and its silly season of pointless endorsements now.

NV-01: Chris Edwards Exposed

Remember Chris Edwards? He's the NV-01 G-O-TEA nominee. And he actually thinks he can deceive Nevada Latinos that he's more of a friend than Dina Titus is!

Believe it or not, the Chris Edwards saga just got a hell of a lot weirder. Unfortunately for him, he accidentally let his true colors appear.

MT @ChrisEdwardsNV: Dina's best help to Hispancis was courtroom translaters to tell them they are going 2 jail

Seriously? Seriously? Did Chris Edwards just say that? Oh yes, he did.

But wait, there's more! He then tweeted this.

RT @ChrisEdwardsNV: @laurakmm courtroom translators. If you provide help sooner then there is no courtroom

Oh yes, he actually said that. Apparently, Chris Edwards thinks Latinos are all criminals.

I figured his charade couldn't last forever. He opposes the DREAM Act, comprehensive immigration reform, universal health care, support for public education, and pretty much everything else Nevada Latinos care about. Yet all this year, he's been pretending to care about the Latino families of NV-01. I guess he's been getting advice on minority voter outreach from Danny Tarkanian.

Well, that's being put to an end. The charade is over. Chris Edwards has just been exposed as just another anti-immigrant G-O-TEA sycophant.

NV-01: Shades of Fiore

Remember Michelle Fiore? Before she set off on her current mission to jeopardize a GOP held Assembly seat in Northwest Las Vegas, she was on an incredibly (and hilariously!) quixotic quest to unseat Shelley Berkley in NV-01 in 2010. Since she couldn't even win the G-O-TEA primary, she went nowhere fast.

Even though Michelle Fiore has moved on to give Nevada Republicans many headaches in another race, her spirit lives on in NV-01. This time, the Nevada G-O-TEA finally succeeded in securing their "chosen one", some dude by the name of Chris Edwards, on the November ballot. And not only is Chris Edwards some dude, but he's a crazy teabagger who's trying to drive wedges against Dina Titus on immgration and the Recovery Act... Despite the fact that he's some teabagger dude who opposes the Recovery Act and hasn't made any complaint about his own party's extreme anti-Latin@ xenophobia.

He may now beating his chest and strutting his stuff and challenging Dina Titus to at least three debates, but Chris Edwards can't seem to get his natural allies in Nevada's G-O-TEA "illuminati" excited about his campaign at all. In fact, Chuck Muth begged local teabaggers to stop wasting time on Edwards' pointless campaign! Yep, it's really that bad.

So why are they still poised to ignore "Papa Chuckie Muth" and revel in Chris Edwards' extremely loud and incredibly toast(ed) campaign? Here's my theory. For some reason, they just can't give up NV-01. Yet while it's good for state parties to maintain presence throughout the state, it's not worthwhile to throw tons of resources away on an unwinnable race. But since Nevada teabaggers' frothing hatred of Dina Titus is incredibly overpowering for them, they're willing to drop everything else just for another chance to annoy her in the new NV-01.

Oh, and perhaps Nevada Republican Party "leaders" are willing to tolerate this insani-TEA because they think a Chris Edwards "TEA" fueled NV-01 food fight will distract us all from Danny Tarkanian's embarrassing delusions of grandeur and Joe Heck's scandalous hypocrisy. That may be what they think, but in reality Chris Edwards' ongoing NV-01 temper tantrum is just giving Nevada Republicans even more reasons to be ashamed of their own party.

#CongressFAIL

If you haven't done so yet, watch this video. (Sorry, I can't catch the embed code now.) And when you're done with that (or if you can't watch video right now), read this.

The metaphor we tend to use for congressional dysfunction is “gridlock.” When you have gridlock, nothing moves. But that’s not quite what we’ve seen. When Congress grinds to a halt, other governmental actors step into the breach. This isn’t a particularly good alternative: For one thing, these other actors don’t have the powers of Congress, and so they need to use roundabout, inefficient ways of achieving their goals. For another, these actors are less accountable than Congress.

But it’s important to realize that this wouldn’t happen if Congress didn’t want it to: Just as Congress could act to write a climate bill, it could also act to stop the EPA from regulating carbon. But when gridlock is driven by minority obstruction, you often have a majority that would like to see some effort made to address these problems, and if they can’t do it themselves, they’re willing to stand back and let other parts of the government do it. This is just one more reason why the increasing level of congressional dysfunction should worry those on both the left and the right: It’s leading government to work in ways the Founders never intended, and that frankly doesn’t make very much sense.

This is what Dina Titus was trying to explain to The R-J yesterday. While it is disturbing that the executive branch has had to claim more authority and take more unilateral action, what are they supposed to do when Congress won't do anything? As Ezra Klein has explained, this Congress has actually threatened economic recovery with its epic obstruction and gridlock!

And yes, there's a clear source for this trouble. Even Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein, two of the nation's preeminent experts on Congress and federal policy making, broke their silence earlier this year and flatly stated why Congress is increasingly looking like a failed institution.

We have been studying Washington politics and Congress for more than 40 years, and never have we seen them this dysfunctional. In our past writings, we have criticized both parties when we believed it was warranted. Today, however, we have no choice but to acknowledge that the core of the problem lies with the Republican Party.

The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.

“Both sides do it” or “There is plenty of blame to go around” are the traditional refuges for an American news media intent on proving its lack of bias, while political scientists prefer generality and neutrality when discussing partisan polarization. Many self-styled bipartisan groups, in their search for common ground, propose solutions that move both sides to the center, a strategy that is simply untenable when one side is so far out of reach.

It is clear that the center of gravity in the Republican Party has shifted sharply to the right. Its once-legendary moderate and center-right legislators in the House and the Senate —think Bob Michel, Mickey Edwards, John Danforth, Chuck Hagel —are virtually extinct.

This is the problem. Because the GOP has devolved into the G-O-TEA, it's become incredibly difficult for anything to be accomplished. Remember, this is why we came perilously close to defaulting on our debt! And this is why Congress keeps wasting time on stupid shit like repealing the Affordable Care Act. And this is why Congress can not even agree on common sense measures like renewing the Violence Against Women Act!

This is NOT how our government is supposed to work. Even when we've seen divided government in the not too distant past, it was never this dysfunctional. Because the likes of Nevada's own Joe Heck and Mark Amodei would rather cave into "tea party" extremists than work with Harry Reid and others to do such basic things as pass a budget on time and take care of the debt ceiling, our federal government is approaching a dangerous level of gridlock... And it's prompted President Obama to exert more executive authority just to keep the federal government functioning.

This is not how it's supposed to work... And it increasingly looks like there's a "TEA" fueled faction on Capitol Hill that likes it this way.

Nevada's State of Play in 2012: Congressional Edition!

(Also at DK Elections)

OK, OK, I'm back! Have you really missed me that much? Since at least some of you have been asking about the state of the Congressional races here in Nevada, I figured I'd update you on what's happening here in The Silver State.

So what are you waiting for? Come with me. You're in The Wild, Wild West now. Let's play!



Ever since the new map emerged, we've been on a wild political roller coaster ride here. Some candidates were quick to jump in, yet some have already been forced to jump out. Overall, the new map provides Nevada Democrats with exciting new opportunities. And while there are still some clear challenges present now, the trend going into the future is looking great.

NV-01 (Urban Las Vegas, Paradise, & Spring Valley)

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64.51%
McCain (R) 33.05%

NV-Sen 2010
Reid (D) 62.40%
Angle (R) 33.09%

She's back! And she won't be leaving us again any time soon. Dina Titus may perhaps provide us with the most dramatic, yet ultimately upbeat, comeback saga of 2010/2012. Two years ago, she lost NV-03 by the narrowest of margins (only 1,748 votes, or 0.66%). But this year, she's set to win big in the new NV-01. It's just over D+11, so Dina no longer has to worry about tough, grueling campaigns... For herself.

Still, she doesn't want to take any kind of back seat to this year's action. At the Clark County Democratic Party Convention this month, Dina Titus made it clear that she doesn't want to just go back to Congress next year, but she wants to go in the majority.



She's definitely a team player, but now she has the chance to play coach and help guide Democrats in tougher districts to victory. And since her own Republican opponent in NV-01 looks to be going nowhere fast, Dina can now afford to play elsewhere.

Race Rating: Safe Democratic (Hold)

NV-02 (Reno, Carson City, & Rural Northern Nevada)

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.43%
McCain (R) 48.23%

NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 49.57%
Reid (D) 43.96%

Mark Amodei has really lucked out. He hasn't been good at raising money, he doesn't seem to be building much of a strong profile, and his district may be trending the other way. Yet despite all this, one of his Democratic opponents has already dropped out of the race. And despite all this, hardly any one is seeing this race as all that competitive.

Why? Last year's special election catastrophe probably has a big role in this. The "major league candidates" have pretty much been scared away since then, leaving only a handful of "minor league contenders" to compete for the honor of losing to Amodei this November. At this point, Democrats' only hope is that somehow President Obama wins NV-02 again and wins well enough to create down-ticket momentum up north. And while that may be possible, it will be incredibly difficult for even that to really make Amodei sweat.

This race may quickly fall off the radar entirely if Amodei doesn't step into major doo-doo any time soon.

Race Rating: Likely Republican (Hold)

NV-03 (Henderson, Enterprise, Summerlin South, & Southern Clark County)

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53.53%
McCain (R) 44.58%

NV-Sen 2010
Reid (D) 48.75%
Angle (R) 47.03%

While Mark Amodei has lucked out, Joe Heck has not. Funny enough, NV-03 became slightly redder after redistricting while NV-02 became slightly bluer. Yet despite that, Joe Heck has run into quite a bit of trouble lately.

Why? It's still a "Purple District" that's developing more of a Blue tint. So Joe Heck's positions on issues like women's rights, Social Security & Medicare, and green energy are looking increasingly out of touch with his district. This is why Heck's campaign kickoff in February turned out to be a rocky start.



And this is why this race will probably (yet again!) be the key barnburner that determines not just the composition of Nevada's Congressional Delegation, but also the balance of power on Capitol Hill.

Race Rating: Tossup

NV-04 (North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Northwest Vegas, & Rural Central Nevada)

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56.40%
McCain (R) 41.44%

NV-Sen 2010
Reid (D) 51.14%
Angle (R) 43.87%

Late last month, Republicans tried hard to capitalize on a "newspaper" article attacking "reporting" on Steven Horsford's past financial difficulties. However, I seriously doubt they can get very far with that. Why?



Oh, yes. Kind of like what happened in 2010 when Nevada Republicans had a bunch of "D List" candidates itching to lose to Harry Reid, they again have a bunch of "D List" candidates itching to lose to Steven Horsford. Unlike NV-Sen 2010, it seems like Danny Tarkanian may finally break his recent losing streak and get past the G-O-TEA primary. But like (Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle in) NV-Sen 2010, "Baby Tark" just doesn't seem to have much (other than his famous last name) to offer to voters.

What this race will probably come down to is turnout. As long as OFA turns out tons of Democratic voters in Clark County for President Obama, Horsford will probably have at least a fairly smooth sail to Congress. Republicans' only chance here lies with poor turnout in Clark County.

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pickup)

So as I've done before with the Legislature races, I'll close by ranking the districts in order of most likely to change hands.

NV-04 (R to D)
NV-03 (R to D)
NV-02 (R... Well, probably still R.)
NV-01 (D... & proud to be.)

This is really tricky. But if I had to stop the flipping somewhere, it would probably be at NV-03. Either way, the race there may be decided by another razor thin margin. But with even Joe Heck's campaign sensing trouble there, John Oceguera can't be counted out. But other than a possible close race in NV-04, the rest looks to be a snooze-fest.

Well, does that answer your questions?

Dina Titus' Speech @ #CCDP2012

Late in 2010, folks were wondering where Dina Titus could go after her razor thin loss to Joe Heck. Early in February 2012, we all realized where she's headed: Back to Congress. It's been an epic journey for Dina Titus, but it's still not quite over yet.

Even though it's likely Dina Titus will be back in Congress representing NV-01 by this time next year, she doesn't want to stop there. Dina doesn't want to go to Washington alone, and she made that known on the convention floor yesterday.



She's really shaping up to be a valuable team player. She's been tapped (along with Steven Horsford) by national Democrats to serve as a "Majority Maker" and help Democratic Congressional candidates running in swing districts. And judging from yesterday's speech, she's already getting busy there. She may no longer be in NV-03, but apparently she won't entirely be giving up that fight.

Joe Heck Gets a Reality Check on Women's Health

Monday night, Rep. Joe Heck (R-"Tea Party") kicked off his campaign in perhaps the most appropriate manner befitting a politician with his kind of record... At an exclusive "invitation only" very-high-dollar fundraiser outside his actual district. But unfortunately for him, a candidate actually running for Congress in that area was also there to say a few things about Dr. Heck's real record of attacking the rights of Nevada's women.



And John Oceguera, one of the Democrats running in the new NV-03, was also there to denounce Heck's embrace of the G-O-TEA's anti-woman agenda. Remember, Heck himself uttered these now infamous words when asked about his opposition to insurance coverage of contraception:

"The fact is this has nothing to do with women’s health issues.”

Is he serious? Does he seriously believe this? Is this all he's ever heard on the subject?



No wonder why Heck's G-O-TEA House colleagues were so afraid to let the women speak.

Well, this may also explain it. The more Americans learn about the G-O-TEA's radical anti-woman agenda, the more they reject it. Maybe Heck's BFF Mitt Romney gets excited about attacking women's right to make their own health care decisions, but the vast majority of Nevadans are not. Just take a look at all the health care services that the G-O-TEA faction in Congress wants to deny to American women! Once Americans figure out what they actually mean when they wax poetic about "liberty", they turn off to the G-O-TEA ideal of giving employers "liberty" in denying preventive health care to women for whatever "religious" excuse they want to throw out.

And Joe Heck still wants to claim that "this has nothing to do with women's health issues"?

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Is he really that clueless? Or is he so cynical that he thinks he can get away with lying to us? Whatever the case, it's becoming even harder to believe that Joe Heck can properly represent the people (and especially the women!) of Nevada's 3rd Congressional District.

NV-01: BREAKING- Ruben Kihuen Withdraws from Primary

5:30 PM-

I literally just saw this a minute ago.

“I want to thank all the volunteers, voters, donors and other supporters who have supported me throughout this process, and this decision that I am announcing today. Unfortunately, the reality is that continuing my efforts to win in what would promise to be a resource draining primary at this time is not in the best interest for me, my family, my community and my party.

“Nevada has lived through the worst economic times in a generation. This year, our state will play a pivotal role in determining whether the United States stays on the path toward recovery by reelecting President Obama, or takes a sharp turn in a radical and dangerous direction.

“I will do everything I can to reelect President Obama and strengthen his hand by sending Democrats to the House and Senate, including Shelley Berkley, Steven Horsford, John Oceguera and Dina Titus. I will do all I can to encourage Latinos to make our voices heard through the electoral process—especially in November.

“For me, serving Nevada has always come first. I will continue to do that in the State Senate. We face a republican party that doesn’t understand the challenges people who live here confront every day. Nevadans need good-paying jobs – now. They need help staying in their homes – today. They need an economic plan that builds the diversified economy of Nevada’s future, starting yesterday. These challenges can’t wait. I’m going back to work on them tomorrow.”

I know this must be tough for Ruben. He truly is a rising star in the Democratic Party here in Nevada. And I still believe he has a very bright future ahead of him. And I hope he continues to fight for our commonly held progressive values in The Legislature. We will surely need him again in Carson City next year.

I know a whole lot of folks down here in Southern Nevada have been excited about Ruben's campaign. I just hope they don't lose hope over this. Trust me, we will continue to see Latin@ Nevadans become more involved in our process and gain more of the power and voice that they deserve in our government. And I hope progressives throughout Clark County can put the NV-01 primary behind them and focus on what we all need to be doing this year in electing more and better progressives up and down the ballot to make our dreams into reality.

UPDATE, 6:30 PM-

Via The Hill, we've now learned that Senator Harry Reid is chiming in and doing his part to make peace here.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), a kingmaker in Nevada Democratic politics, immediately endorsed Titus, although he called Kihuen a “rising star in Nevada and the Democratic Party” and said he expected great things from him in the near future.

“With Tea Party Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, Nevada’s middle-class families need Dina Titus in their corner fighting to protect Medicare and Social Security, create good paying jobs that can’t be shipped overseas and holding Wall Street bankers and Big Oil executives accountable,” Reid said.

Well done, "Abuelito". Well done. And clearly with Ruben out, Dina's more likely to be back in Congress next year. And frankly, I'm sure a whole lot of progressives will be happy to see her back there.



Knowing Dina and knowing where she stands on justice for the 99%, I'm sure she will serve NV-01 well. :-)

7:15 PM-

Dina Titus' campaign just released a statement on this.

“Senator Kihuen is a dedicated public servant who has always put the interests of Nevada first. He ran a strong campaign that inspired young people to work for the good of our state. Now is the time to come together to reelect President Obama and elect Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, Steven Horsford, and all Democrats running for office. Ruben is a rising star who has a bright career ahead of him fighting for Nevadans. I look forward to working with him to create jobs, advocate for minority interests, and diversify Nevada’s economy.”

Well done, Dina. Thanks. Let's keep it classy, Nevada Democrats.

7:40 PM-

A few minutes ago, The Sun was able to get a comment from Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Roberta Lange on this.

“Sen. Ruben Kihuen is an outstanding public servant with a very bright future in Nevada politics,” state party Chairwoman Roberta Lange said in a statement. “Nevada Democrats are united behind Dina Titus and we look forward to sending her back to Congress to fight for Nevada families.”

The article from Karoun Demirjian also sheds a little more light on why this happened.

Democrats pressured Titus to step aside and declare herself for the swing 3rd District, the one she’d represented before losing by a slim margin to Republican Rep. Joe Heck.

But Titus didn’t accept that tacit determination, opting instead for the safer 1st District seat, where any Democrat who gets elected stands a strong chance of being re-elected for several cycles to come.

But even if the opinion of the party power elite was against Titus, the numbers — polls, fundraising, even age — were against Kihuen.

An early internal poll from the Titus campaign showed the former congresswoman pulling seven times the vote Kihuen could muster districtwide, and about three times as many votes as Kihuen among the Hispanics that were supposed to be his base.

The Titus campaign also more than doubled Kihuen's in 2011 fundraising, a feat they loudly trumpeted last week when numbers were released. As of Dec. 31, Titus had raised $422,000, keeping $327,000 in cash on hand, while Kihuen had only raised $189,000, with about $135,000 cash on hand.

Again, both Dina and Ruben have been strong progressive Democrats. And both had been making a great case for being elected in NV-01. I guess in the end, Ruben decided it wasn't worth it to risk party division over what's essentially a nonexistent ideological divide.

And again, hopefully Ruben will reemerge when future opportunities arise. And I know they will. He's a sharp mind and a bright star who has no reason to shy away any time soon.

And again, Dina is the Nevada Democrats' political phoenix who finds ways to keep rising out of the ashes against all odds. Dina is back. Again. And this time, she'll likely be here to stay.

10 of 11: Redistricting!

This is probably the quirkiest and funniest story of 2011. At the start of the year, everyone was wondering what kind of deal would be made to please most incumbents and share the treasures of Congressional gerrymandering. Honestly, that's what I was thinking when I released my first scenario for changing Nevada's Congressional map. I mean, come on... Nevada's Legislature had always been able to agree to a bipartisan gerrymander that kept most happy. Couldn't they do it again?

By April, the answer was starting to sound like one big fat "NO!" And as spring sprang and the budget brawl was becoming increasingly brutal, Nevada's pundit class was finally starting to realize that a huge "game change" was in the works. And despite the Legislature brokering a budget deal in late May (once the state Supreme Court forced it), a compromise gerrymander was looking increasingly impossible. And once sine die was reached in early June, the legal fight officially became a battle royale... And I noted that it wasn't exactly a bad thing.

Maybe this really isn't a bad thing? After all, the current districts we have are a result of a bipartisan "incumbent protection" gerrymander. Perhaps now that judges will decide the new district boundaries rather than politicians looking to protect their own behinds and/or use redistricting as a bargaining chip for something else, we'll see Congressional and legislative districts that actually make more sense. Here's to hope!

In August, redistricting took a weird turn when Judge James Todd Russell appointed "special masters" to handle the map drawing... And decide all the legal issues that he was supposed to rule on! By October, Secretary of State Ross Miller rushed to the Nevada Supreme Court to beg our state's highest court to end what seemed to be turning into a fiasco. By then, most of our state's politicos were begging Governor Sandoval and the legislators to try one more time to agree on some sort of redistricting compromise. Jon Ralston most notably asked the Gube and the Leg to "make them (Judge Russell and the "special masters") irrelevant", but I wasn't ready to give up on our new bold experiment just yet.

So is independent redistricting perfect? Nope, just look at what's happening next door. But by the same token, we can also look next door and see an overall better functioning process that gives voters more control than the usual powers that be. And that would be quite the "special" departure from the usual politics that surrounds redistricting here in Nevada.

I honestly don't know if the current judiciary mess or retrying the Legislature is the better path to take for this current round of redistricting here. But moving forward, we really need to reexamine our State Constitution (which currently requires the Legislature to redraw its own districts and Congressional Districts) and ask if we really want to endure this kind of nonsense ten years from now.

I noted that despite many legal and political hiccups, both Arizona and California ultimately ended up with fairer and more logical Congressional and Legislature maps. Maybe if we just let this process work, Nevada could also be as lucky?

Oh, we certainly ended up so! The new maps were released in mid October, and the new state of play suddenly sent a whole lot of politicians scrambling. And in addition to Congress, the Legislature also saw a huge overhaul as both Assembly and Senate districts shifted southward.

Of course, this made the Nevada GOP furious. Funny enough, they were originally pushing for court drawn maps in the hope of the redistricting law suit landing on the lap of a Republican friendly judge. And of course, they got that! However, they still threw a temper tantrum once the new maps emerged. Why? Oh, it wasn't a gerrymander... And all of a sudden, they were forced to acknowledge the shift of the balance of power from rural white Republicans to multicultural and multi-ethnic urban and suburban Democrats.

Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is [Assembly Member Pete] Goicoechea [R-Eureka] really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year. [...]

So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.

For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.

This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes are changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.

In the end, only minor changes were made to the Legislature maps and the Nevada Supremes ultimately green-lighted the new maps this past fall. So in addition to the wide open Legislature races, we now have a red hot (even if deep blue) Democratic primary in NV-01, a real barnburner of a general election coming to Joe Heck in NV-03, and Barbara Cegavske's increasingly comical delusions of grandeur in NV-04. And who knows, maybe at some point NV-02 will join in on the fun and games next year as well.

Breaking My Silence on NV-01

In case you missed the big news this morning, nationally respected polling firm Anzalone-Liszt released a new NV-01 poll showing Dina Titus with a substantial 75% to 18% lead over Ruben Kihuen in the Democratic primary (that will likely determine the general election winner there). And while the media pundits will want to focus on the horse race aspect of the race, I think there's an even bigger story behind the top lines of this poll.

For one, there's no real "racial gap" among Democratic voters here. Instead, Dina leads with over 60% of the vote and by greater than 2-1 margins across all ethnic groups. Latino voters approve of what Dina did in the previous Congress, and so far they're not falling into the GOP trap of race baiting that Republicans want this primary to be about.

What's also fascinating is the lack of a "geographic gap" in the new NV-01. In both the current areas of the district and the former parts of NV-03 (that Dina Titus represented in 2009 and 2010) being added to the new NV-01, Dina leads with over 70% of the vote. For all the supposed controversy over where Dina lives, Democrats across the district know and love her.

So considering the big news today, perhaps I should break my silence here. Frankly, I'm getting awfully sick and tired of all the ridiculous accusations and over-the-top personal attacks that have defined this race so far. While I don't believe Ruben Kihuen is ignorant, inexperienced, lazy, or unprepared, I also don't believe Dina Titus is racist, "elitist", conservative (HA!), emasculating, or stealing (anything her detractors always falsely accuse her of).

We all know Dina Titus' record. Where is the "racism"? Where is the "elitism"? And where is the conservative?



So why even go there? I know Ruben is smart and determined. And I know Dina cares about all her constituents. And I know both can make an honest case for progressives' votes.

With that being said, I just hope that no one gives Nevada Republicans the holiday gift they want the most, which would be a progressive base destroyed because of ridiculous NV-01 infighting. Please, just let them keep destroying their own (lack of) operation. Please, NV-01 folks, don't toss any "get out of jail free" cards to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Dean Heller, and/or Joe Heck.

So far, it looks like Democratic primary voters aren't falling for the radical right's "divide and conquer" strategy. Let's keep it that way. Whether the NV-01 winner is Titus or Kihuen, we can't allow for the G-O-TEA to take everything else here in Nevada.

OK. I'm glad to get that off my chest. That's all, folks (at least for now).

Occupy Las Vegas, Occupy Congress, Occupy the Vote

We've heard plenty about what may have happened when Occupy Las Vegas moved Downtown yesterday. I wanted to share with you what I thought was the most poignant part, which was the part that did not receive all that much media attention.

Take a look at the video above... And these photos below.











Look at the 99% here. They were carrying signs and shouting out sound bites, yet they were also sending an important message directly to Nevada's Congressional delegation, especially Senator Dean Heller (R-Tea Party) and Rep. Joe Heck (R-Tea Party). While the G-O-TEA duo were promoting their "Balanced Budget Amendment" hogwash (since they are not actually interested in balancing any budget, all they want is another excuse to destroy America's social safety net), Nevadans were outside Heller's Las Vegas office and asking him to focus on what Americans really need: JOBS!

And interestingly enough, Heller's former colleague (and Heck's opponent last year) came by to address the crowd. She delivered this same message.



Dina Titus obviously has a different perspective on Congress, since she was briefly a member of Congress (and plans to return there in 14 months). Still, I see more here.

It can be quite easy to become discouraged by the whole process. And it can be quite easy to become distracted by the endless media hype and speculation over meaningless "dog and pony shows". And it be quite easy to become disgusted by all the dirty corporate money thrown around. Sometimes, it's quite difficult to remember what really matters.

However, we just can't forget. We can't forget the importance of getting involved, contacting our members of Congress, building a real movement, and ultimately using our votes to change what we don't like. That's the beauty of our system, and that's something we should never feel compelled to give up.

We can't wait for job creation. And we can't wait for an end to Congress' charade games that keep threatening middle class families. We need real, bold action on job creation. And if the current G-O-TEA House majority prevents Congress from acting, then we need to change Congress by occupying the vote.

On Primaries

In the last week, we've been hearing plenty about primaries... Especially one in Las Vegas. Who is Harry Reid backing? Who is Culinary backing? Who will excite Latinos more? Who will excite women more?

I don't think I need to go into details as to what I'm referring to. And it's not like this may be the only primary that heats up. So where do we go from here?

Here's a start: Don't take it so personally, and don't make it toxic. Really. Just live by these rules, and the entire Democratic Party and progressive movement don't have to be ripped apart over personality wars.

This isn't obligated to be "ugly", so don't fulfill certain pundits' wishes. No progressive benefits from "ugly". And no progressive benefits from media feeding frenzies involving "ugly" that only serve to distract voters from what really matters.

And what really matters, you ask? Economic justice. Civil rights. Health care for all. A greener, cleaner future. This is what matters... Not "ugly", not personality wars.

And for most races here in Nevada, the election doesn't end alongside the primary. We all have a long and brutal year ahead of us. We have dangerous, extreme, TEA-flavored ideologues to defeat at the Presidential and Congressional level. So certain primary campaigns should remember that even if their respective campaigns "end" on primary night, there's still far more that Nevada progressives will need to do to succeed on November 6, 2012.

So before there's greater potential for this upcoming primary season to spin out of control, I just wanted to put this out. So please take heed. Thanks.

First Thoughts on Democrats' Congressional Redistricting Plan

It's here! It's here! The Democratic Legislators' Congressional Redistricting Plan is finally here!

Democrats today unveiled proposed boundaries for Nevada’s four congressional districts, the political consequences of which they will debate this afternoon at the Legislature.

In the game of shifting political power, the Democrats say their congressional redistricting proposal creates three competitive districts with one northern and rural Nevada district leaning Republican.

Their plan could make Congressional District 3 less safe for Republican Representative Joe Heck, the current incumbent who won by a slim margin over Democratic candidate Dina Titus during 2010.

Democrats also say that their proposal is more fair to Nevada’s Hispanic population. The Democratic proposal offers Hispanics no majority-minority district in Clark County as was the case with a Republican congressional district proposal released last week. Rather, the Democratic maps show a Latino population dispersed throughout several Clark County districts.

Instead of cramming Latinos mostly into just one district, the Democratic plan creates at least one minority-majority coalition district, and all four districts have Latino populations of over 20%.

In addition to spreading out the Latino population, the Democratic map also spreads out opportunities for several politicians. Steven Horsford is placed in NV-01, Kate Marshall stays in NV-02, John Oceguera gets NV-03, and Dina Titus goes to NV-04. Interesting how that works out, isn't it? But while NV-01 has a hefty 16% Democratic voter registration advantage, NV-03 and NV-04 are not incredibly Democratic. Under this proposal, NV-03 has just under 10% Democratic registration edge, while NV-04 is about 8% more Democratic and NV-02 is about 7% more Republican.

The Democrats' statewide map is here, and their Clark County close-up is here. While the Democratic map does chop up all the big Clark County cities, Nye County is the only county to be split, as all other non-Clark areas are kept whole, intact, and together.

So far, it looks like Democratic legislators took the same "fair" approach to redistricting Congress as they did in redrawing their own seats. I'm still curious as to why they're doing this. Is this a budget bargaining chip intended for Republican legislators, an open dare for Brian Sandoval to oppose a fair redistricting map, and/or an overture to Nevada Supreme Court Justices should this case land in their docket later this year?

I guess we'll have to wait and see to find out...

First Thoughts on Republican Redistricting Gerrymander

So Republicans now have their new redistricting proposals released. And so far, here's what I'm thinking:

- They seem to be relinquishing any hopes of regaining either house of The Nevada Legislature. So far, it sounds like The Assembly maintains its current partisan divide (26 Dems/16 GOPers) while The Senate provides more Democratic pickup opportunities.

- Meanwhile, they seem to be saving all their cannon fire for Congressional redistricting. It looks to cement a 2-2 split with 2 districts favoring Republicans, 1 district favoring Democrats, and one heavily Democratic Latino majority district.

- Greg Brower's (formerly Bill Raggio's) Senate district looks to go bye-bye and get swallowed up by a Democratic leaning Washoe County Senate district, but two Washoe Assembly Democrats may become more vulnerable.

- And Elizabeth Halseth gets a slightly safer Senate district, but Doc Hardy has to swallow a district with a slight Democratic edge as Barbara Cegavske's district becomes more Democratic leaning and Clark County gets a new Silverado Ranch/Green Valley (???) Senate district with a slight Democratic edge.

All in all, it seems like Republicans are prepared to negotiate away The Legislature (or at least, any chance of regaining a majority in either house) to grab that extra Congressional seat... And pack Latinos into as few seats as possible??!!

I'll continue poring over the numbers here, and I'm awaiting the Democratic proposal to be released later this afternoon. I'll also have first reactions on that tonight, as well as a more thorough redistricting roundup this weekend.

Revisiting Redistricting: All About Shelley... And Sharron?

(Also at Swing State Project)

Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here's another option... But I have to warn you, it isn't pretty.

So what if Shelley Berkley doesn't run? Last time, we just assumed she was, and certain legislators hope she will so that they can redesign the 1st Congressional District (and form the brand new 4th) to their liking. But hold on, what if Shelley doesn't run? Certain folks in DC have already been whispering they prefer someone else run for Senate. And now that Dean Heller is officially in the race, they're making their views more public that they want someone, like Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto, who has already proven ability to win statewide.

So what if Shelley doesn't run? This is the scenario I explore in the map below.





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,966
69.3% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

The geographic map hasn't changed since last time, but the political one certainly has!

Who's All In?

Again, it's now official that Dean Heller is running for US Senate. And now that he's endorsed Heller for Senate, current Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki (R) just may be angling to replace Heller in this seat. And on paper, he seems like the ideal candidate: libertarian-conservative, but not too extreme, and very focused on Nevada issues. However, there are three drawbacks for him:

The Wild Cards

- One, Sharron Angle hasn't yet figured out where she will run. (And yes, it's pretty much settled that she WILL run for federal office again!) If she runs for Senate again, it will mean extra heartburn for Heller. But if she runs for this seat again, it will mean extra trouble for Krolicki.

- Two, the outspoken and controversial former USS Cole commander Kirk Lippold has already hinted he'll also run in NV-02, and Nevada "tea party" icon Chuck Muth may already be anointing him as "THE Tea Party's Favored Son". So if Sharron Angle runs for Senate instead and Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei remains adamant about staying in the race (and potentially siphoning away critical GOP establishment support for Krolicki), this could be a recipe for yet another embarrassing setback for Krolicki and the Nevada GOP.

- And three, the unexpected may finally happen: A prominent A-List Democrat, State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), is now considering running. If this comes to fruition and the GOP nominee is either weakened by a brutal primary and/or someone that the GOP establishment won't be happy to support, then NV-02 just might do the unthinkable for the first time ever (elect a Democrat).

2010 US Senate Results
49.6% Angle (R)
43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
49% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Sharron Angle or Kirk Lippold is the GOP nominee

NV-03 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,257
66.4% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

This district is just slightly more Democratic than its last incarnation, and that's due to the return of the ritzy Summerlin North and Peccole Ranch (home of Shelley Berkley) Las Vegas neighborhoods to NV-01. The rest of the district remains intact, and the partisan makeup wasn't too altered thanks to the remaining rural territories and the addition of some semi-rural (Las Vegas) West Side precincts along Sahara and west of Rainbow. And other than forming an even more disturbingly gerrymandered Reno-to-Vegas district, there isn't anything more that can be done to save Joe Heck. And considering Heck's recent vote to preserve the FHA program assisting homeowners with underwater loans (which is badly needed in the district with the highest foreclosure rate in the country), he now realizes he will need to tack to the middle at times and at least pay some lip service to issues Southern Nevada cares about most (like housing and jobs) to win this still closely divided district.

Who's All In?

See above. Heck looks to be preparing for reelection already. And since there's a penchant for close elections and for ticket splitting here, he certainly shouldn't be counted out in a district that President Obama will probably only narrowly win next year.

The Wild Cards

Should Heck prove to be "too independent" for teabaggers' liking, or if/when he runs for another office later in the decade, State Senators Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest) and Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) will likely remain waiting in the wings. But with the removal of Summerlin North, it may be a little harder to find a West Side Democrat to run here. However, Democrats may want to look at the other end of the valley (particularly at a couple folks on the Henderson City Council) for future recruits.

2010 US Senate Results
48.2% Angle (R)
46.5% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
51% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican



NV-01 (The Baby Blue District)

Population: 675,092
43.7% Latino (38.1% voting age), 32.2% White (37.6% voting age), 14.4% African American (14.4% voting age)

The State of Play

Shelley is back... Or at the very least, this seat is hers as long as she wants it. If Shelley Berkley does decide to sit out the Senate race next year and stay in The House for now, she still has a super safe seat ready for her.

This seat is just slightly more Republican than the last version, but still slightly more Democratic than the NV-01 drawn in 2001. And again, that's just because the district (once again) has to stretch west toward Red Rock Canyon to dip into Shelley's elegant stomping grounds of Peccole Ranch and Summerlin North. However, this does very much alter the ultimate state of play here.

Who's All In?

Without Summmerlin, this district can finally send a North Las Vegas politico like State Senators Steven Horsford or Ruben Kihuen to Congress. But with this configuration, high turnout West End 'hoods like Summerlin and Desert Shores will probably remain quite dominant in the primary, meaning Shelley will go untouched as long as she wants to remain in NV-01...

The Wild Cards

And should she finally run for higher office or retire later in the decade, a Summerlin area Democrat like State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) or Clark County Commissioner (and Future Las Vegas Mayor?) Larry Brown (D-Las Vegas) definitely has a good chance here. But if Ruben Kihuen can be patient and turn out his enthusiastic "NorTown" base, he will still have a strong fighting chance as this district continues to inch toward becoming majority Latino and supermajority minority-majority. And honestly, neither can Horsford be counted out, especially if he can wait another cycle or two for Shelley to step aside.

2010 US Senate Results
62.5% Reid (D)
33.1% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
66% Obama (D)
32% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+13

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic, regardless of who ultimately runs here



NV-04 (Light Spring Green)

Population: 674,936
48.6% White (53.2% voting age), 27% Latino (23.1% voting age), 11.8% Asian American (12.3% voting age)

The State of Play

It's still open season here... Perhaps even more so if Shelley indeed decides to stay put next door. The district hooks into The West Side to take whiter neighborhoods left out of NV-01, then jumps down to the increasingly diverse Spring Valley, then hops across The Strip to The East Side and some of East Las Vegas (and ultimately to Lake Mead), then climbs uphill to grab the more Democratic leaning Henderson precincts of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch, then sweeps through the diverse and increasingly Democratic friendly Silverado Ranch communuity, then hops back across The 15 to snatch some minority-majority neighborhoods in the once rapidly growing Southwest.

Who's All In?

Need we ask? Rory Reid is probably out of the running for good, and Dina Titus' political stock continues to rebound. This time, she just might get a seat she can get comfy in.

The Wild Cards

However, Dina also can't take this seat for granted. Both Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D-Spring Valley) and current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) are eyeing this district, and both have far better relationships with the Nevada Democratic establishment than Dina Titus.

2010 US Senate Results
56.0% Reid (D)
39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
60% Obama (D)
37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic, and will probably be downgraded to Safe Democratic so long as the eventual nominee isn't caught in a Rory-like scandal

Suffice to say, a whole lot changes if Shelley Berkley decides to stay in The House rather than run for Senate. The Clark based districts will probably have to be gerrymandered at least somewhat to keep everyone happy.

And up north, the fate of NV-02 may very well rest on what Sharron Angle decides to do, and what her once ardent "tea party" supporters think of Brian Krolicki and Mark Amodei. If Angle can regain their trust, or if she runs for Senate instead and allows someone like Kirk Lippold to consolidate the tea tinged Northern Nevada far right base, Krolicki may not be in for an easy ride regardless of whether Dean Heller decides to anoint a successor. And with Kate Marshall now eyeing a run here as well, Democrats may actually have a pickup opportunity up north next year.