Here's the dilemma: The horribly nasty state budget stalemate has pretty much infected everything in Carson City, including the usually congenial redistricting process. And even though it's increasingly likely The Legislature will finally compromise on a budget/tax deal, at the same time the clock is quickly running out and there may not be any time left for a compromise on redistricting.
So what are you waiting for? Let's get to the map!
NV-02 (The Dark Green District)
Population: 675,282
69.3% White (73.7% VAP)
The State of Play
Wow! We've seen plenty of change here! Sharron Angle looks to be out, Kate Marshall is now officially in, and the entire September special election is totally up in the air!
But regardless of what happens with that special election this year, the court has to redraw the district for next year. I think there's a good chance the judges will direct their aides to keep all of Washoe County (Reno area) intact, then connect it to Carson City, Douglas County, Storey County, Lyon County, and the Fallon area of Churchill County. This essentially makes the greater Reno-Carson metro area, so it would meet the bar for communities of interest. The seat also includes the northern rural counties of Pershing, Lander, Eureka, and Elko.
While this district has been historically (VERY!) Republican, the changing demographics of Washoe County are leading to much changed politics of this area. In addition, the changing dynamics of the Nevada Republican Party will also shake up the balance of power here. While a moderate Republican is likely favored here in any election, Republican primary voters have been demanding more ideological purity as of late, and may very well nominate teabaggers doomed to lose in general elections.
Who's All In?
As I hinted at above, Kate Marshall is now running for Congress. And if she happens to win in September, I figure the state Democratic Party will ensure next year's primary is cleared for her. And since Marshall lives in Reno, there's virtually no chance of her being redistricted out of NV-02.
Now on the other hand, things have been far more turbulent on the Republican side up here. Sharron Angle is definitely out of the special election, and now political observers are wondering if maybe, just maybe, she'll also stay out of next year's election. If so, then Kirk Lippold's political life will get that much easier. He received a huge boost earlier this month when former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV GOP Old Guard) endorsed him. And now with Angle out of the race, he will have an easier time consolidating the teabagger vote.
At the same time, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) and former Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei will have a tough fight ahead. They're trying to balance throwing some bones to the extreme right to appease the teabaggers while looking sane enough to hold enough moderates to win a general election. Good luck with that! Perhaps Brower or Amodei can pull that off in the general, but first there's the primary. And in the event either Kate Marshall or Kirk Lippold wins the special election this year, will they try again next year?
The Wild Cards
At this point, it's all on the teabaggers. Will they unite behind Lippold? Can they tolerate Amodei or Brower? Will they allow for another Sharron Angle comeback? Only time will tell.
Recent Election Results
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.2%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%
Current Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if special election produces big surprise
NV-04 (The Red District)
Population: 675,251
61.5% White (65.0% VAP)
The State of Play
We've all been waiting for where Nevada's shiny new Congressional District lands. But now that The Nevada Supreme Court has final say, it's looking like the new seat will land on a wide stretch of land going from rural Churchill County to expansive Nye and Lincoln Counties to the sprawling western Clark County (Greater Las Vegas) suburbs and exurbs. This new district forces a "shotgun wedding" of the Deep Republican Central Nevada rural areas with the more Democratic leaning Spring Valley neighborhoods and swingy Summerlin and Northwest neighborhoods of Clark County. It may not be the prettiest district, but it's probably the court's best option to unite communities of interest in the western (Las Vegas) valley while meeting population requirements.
Oh, and since the district pretty much splits right down the middle, NV-04 isn't a "slam dunk" for either Democrats or Republicans.
Who's All In?
This really changes everything. On the Republican side, the new lines may very well encourage State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) to run, as she's been yearning lately for a promotion to DC. Now she finally has a district to make her dreams come true. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Southwest Vegas) may also be encouraged by local teabaggers to run, even though her house may be outside this district.
But unless Republicans can agree on a more moderate candidate who can carry the Clark County portion of NV-04, they may be in trouble. Many of these parts of Vegas have been growing more diverse and trending more Democratic as of late, so Democrats may actually be favored next year if President Obama remains popular, a moderate Summerlin area Democrat can win the nomination, and the Republicans get too teabaggy for voters here. Paging Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown (D-Northwest Vegas)?
The Wild Cards
You mean NV-04 isn't wild enough for you?! ;-)
Recent Election Results
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.6%
McCain (R) 46.2%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%
Current Race Rating: Tossup
NV-01 (The Blue District)
Population: 675,148
29.0% White (34.5% VAP), 14.7% African-American (14.8% VAP), 47.0% Latino (41.1% VAP)
The State of Play
Here's where things get even wilder! One of the brightest and hottest flash points of the redistricting battle in Nevada has been over minority representation, and in particular what to do with Nevada's Latinos. Republicans have claimed the Voting Rights Act (VRA) demands a Latino majority seat, while Democrats have claimed Latinos should have enough sway in multiple districts to maximize opportunity. At this point, I suspect the court will throw out both parties' maps and split the middle on the reasoning. This probably means we will see NV-01 become a VRA coalition seat based in North Las Vegas and the older, more diverse neighborhoods of Las Vegas (city, mainly Downtown, East Las Vegas, and West Las Vegas) with a fairly strong (38-43%) Latino voting aged population (VAP) plurality.
Who's All In?
So if this is what the court settles upon, then this changes everything on who will win NV-01 next year. State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) has been considered the early frontrunner here, but this district creates major geographic and demographic challenges for him. In addition, as The Legislature closes its 76th session with a total meltdown over the state budget and the progressive Democratic base is becoming increasingly frustrated with party leadership over the lack of progress on implementing progressive tax reform and securing more public education funding, Horsford may pay the ultimate price for this.
All this time, it's been rumored that freshman State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas), a rapidly rising Latino star in Carson City, has been waiting in the wings. This may be his perfect opportunity, as Steven Horsford's political woes surface and Nevada's Latinos are looking for new and exciting leaders.
The Wild Cards
I've occasionally heard that North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck (R) may want a big promotion some time soon, but I suspect she realizes what she has to do to win a Republican primary here probably won't help her win over the voters she needs to succeed in this very heavily Democratic minority-majority district.
Recent Election Results
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 69.1%
McCain (R) 28.8%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 65%
Sharron Angle (R) 30%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 58%
Brian Sandoval (R) 37%
Current Race Rating: Safe Democratic
NV-03: The Purple District
Population: 674,870
56.7% White (60.6% VAP)
The State of Play
For the last decade, NV-03 has been the "fair fight district" that Republicans thought they could keep a firm grasp upon, until they struggled to save Jon Porter in 2006, only to see him go down in flames in 2008. Joe Heck then turned the district Red again in 2010, but only barely (winning by fewer than 2,000 votes and earning only 48%). Republican legislators had been hoping they could reach a deal with Democrats to give Heck a friendlier NV-03 in 2012. And while there's a faint chance of some last minute deal that allows for a budget that continues the 2009 taxes while throwing the GOP this bone, it's looking increasingly unlikely. Instead, it seems like The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately draw out Joe Heck's fate.
And if the court really looks at communities of interest, then Heck will be in for quite the rough rise. This NV-03 is drawn to reunite almost the entire East Side, which is heavily Democratic, then swing south to swingy Henderson, take in the increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest valley suburbs (west of I-15, south of 215), take in heavily Republican Boulder City, then stretch all the way out to the California border at Primm and Arizona border at Laughlin. The end result is a NV-03 that is slightly more Democratic than its current incarnation, and that may spell real trouble for teabagger darling Heck.
Who's All In?
So what will Joe Heck do? It seems like he's been operating on the assumption he will get at least a slightly redder district, but now he's at the mercy of judges who are supposed to put aside partisan politics. Will Republicans finally lose this district for good?
Enter Dina Titus. She has been itching for a(nother) political comeback since she lost to Heck in a painfully close election. Even though she was probably planning on running in a safer seat, this is now her best opportunity to return to Congress. This district reunites her long time East Side base, includes all the Henderson areas she's known to do well in, and drops the Summerlin and Northwest suburbs that caused her the most problems in 2008 and 2010. This may very well be the best Dina can hope for considering the court now redraws the lines.
The Wild Cards
Early this year, State Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) sounded like a possible Congressional candidate. And perhaps he will still feel the itch to run. But at this point, he has a much tougher hill to climb. Now that The Legislature is in so much chaos in its final days, he will have a harder time convincing Democratic primary voters he's their champion fighter.
At the same time, Joe Heck may have yet another headache if he tries to shift back to the center in a last attempt to save his political career. So far he's had an easy relationship with teabaggers because he gives them the vast majority of what they want. However, what they want is NOT what we needs to do to win an otherwise Democratic leaning district. If Heck pulls back on issues like Paul Ryan's Medicare dismantling, he will probably risk losing the GOP primary. Will teabaggers ask Elizabeth Halseth to run here? Or will they turn to one of their statewide 2010 also rans?
Funny enough, it's increasingly looking like Dina Titus will have an easier primary than most expected early this year. With Rory Reid definitely out, John Oceguera possibly staying out, and Joe Heck at greater risk of getting booted out, Dina may have the last laugh after all.
Recent Election Results
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55.7%
McCain (R) 42.2%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 45%
Current Race Rating: Leans Democratic
So there you have it. This is another glimpse at what the final results of a court drawn Nevada map may look like.
I know this may scare some folks here who were hoping for two or three safe Democratic seats, but remember this. Nevada's demographics gave shifted rapidly in the last two decades, resulting in a huge political realignment that led to President Obama's stunning 12.5% win in 2008 and Harry Reid's shocking 5.6% win in 2010. While there have been plenty of ups and downs in the last three election cycles, Democrats overall continue to be on an upswing and demographic trends look to continue helping Democrats keep a firm grasp on the intensely urban NV-01, recapture the suburban-but-diversifying NV-03, become more competitive in the transitioning NV-02, and stake a claim on the up-for-grabs NV-04. Maybe Democrats shouldn't be afraid of a court drawn map after all.
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