New #NVLeg Assembly Race Ratings

Now that we talked about the Senate, it's time to check on the Assembly. Oh yes, that's right. We also have new #NVLeg race ratings there as well. And now that the primary is over, we have a better sense of what to expect this fall.

When we last checked on the Assembly in March, it looked like plenty of change was in store, even as the partisan numbers weren't. So has that changed since then? We'll find out below.

Clark County

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 58%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

There was never any suspense about the primary... And I'm starting to wonder how much we'll see in the general. "Tea Party" Republican Michelle Fiore started her fundraising well, and it's starting to look like Democrat Ken Evans isn't keeping up. He will need plenty of resources to flip this seat, even if Fiore is... Well, crazy.

AD 5
Spring Valley/Las Vegas- Peccole Ranch
Nested into SD 8

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Since our last report, it looks like Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop has doubled down... And brought in some friends to go all in for her. While Republican challenger Bill Harrington did coast past his primary, he hasn't raised much $. And with the exception of "Tea Party, Inc." power player Monte Miller coming in to help him, it's looking like the rest of Nevada's key "business establishment" power players are betting on Dondero Loop.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

As expected, Democrat Andrew Martin easily sailed through his primary. However, Republicans are a little embarrassed over their star recruit, Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman, narrowly losing the GOP primary to "some dude" Clay Hurst. And not only is Hurst "some dude", but he's "some dude" who hasn't even filed a C&E (contribution and expense) report! Now, Martin just needs good Democratic turnout this fall to seal the deal. And considering all the field work that will be done for John Oceguera and Justin Jones (AD 9 also overlaps NV-03), that shouldn't be too much of a problem.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas
Nested into SD 21

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is probably the last time you see AD 12 on the scoreboard. Though James Ohrenschall initially ran into trouble when his district shed some of heavily Democratic (and Latino) East Las Vegas to pick up heavily Republican (and wealthy and white) Lake Las Vegas, it now looks like he will live on for another term. His Republican opponent, Bridgette Bryant, has so far raised $1,350 total! Once again, Nevada Republican ineptitude looks to be saving another Nevada Democrat.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Tossup

While the Assembly GOP Caucus must be relieved that Paul Anderson survived a "TEA" fueled primary challenge from Leonard Foster, they still can't rest easy here. Lou DeSalvio won the Democratic Primary, and he's been "packing heat" in his fundraising. And since both he and Kelli Ross (who's running for Senate here) are moderates with the strong potential for crossover appeal, Anderson and his Republican Establishment backers will have to work to lock down this seat.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson
Nested into SD 12

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 50%
Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

On paper, this should be a very competitive district. And while I still suspect Crescent Hardy is just too conservative for this district, he may just be able to slip through the cracks due to a lack of due diligence on the part of the Assembly Democratic Caucus. Felipe Rodriguez has hardly raised any money, and it's unclear as to what kind of field he's doing. And while there are many Democratic strongholds in the new AD 19, they have to be worked hard to get the kind of turnout that one regularly sees in the rock solid Republican parts of the district that Crescent Hardy is counting on to win another term.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

For now, both party establishments are happy. Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed Andy Eisen and Assembly Republican Caucus endorsed Becky Harris won their respective primaries, so it's now game on for those two in the general. Both live in Silverado Ranch, both are prodigious fundraisers, and both have great looking resumes. While Harris probably won't make this an easy pickup for Democrats, I still sense the partisan leanings of the new AD 21 give Eisen at least a bit of an edge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) got a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

At first, incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson) seemed destined to reach the top of "The Endangered Legislators List", as her district was shifted to the right in redistricting. And when famous "The Gun Store" owner Bob Irwin decided to jump in and challenge Mastroluca, I honestly didn't know what to expect next.

Yet while GOP money men Sheldon Adelson and Monte Miller have cut checks for Irwin, his fundraising is falling seriously behind Mastroluca's (who's already raised over $85,000 so far and has her own power players backing her up). And other than his hideous looking roadside signs, I haven't seen any field work on his behalf. Mastroluca, on the other hand, has become an expert in maximizing her ground game to win close elections.

While she's far from out of the woods, April Mastroluca may soon find a path back to the promised land (of another term in Carson City).

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

On the Democratic side, there was little drama as Assembly Caucus endorsed James Healey won the primary. However on the Republican side, "tea party" backed "some dude" Tom Blanchard scored a surprising upset victory over Establishment backed (and son of recently failed NV-04 candidate Barbara Cegavske) Adam Cegavske. Consider this another G-O-TEA Primary FAIL that may very well come back to bite Nevada Republicans.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest
Nested into SD 6

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 48%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 55%
R Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

However, Marcus Conklin isn't making this easy for Duncan and Assembly GOP Leadership. While the $45,000 that Duncan has raised so far would be respectable in a normal race, Conklin has already piled up over $220,000 (!!!!!) and has lined up almost the entire "gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" (basically, everyone but Monte Miller and Sheldon Adelson) behind him. Still, we'll have to wait and see if the law of diminishing marginal returns kicks in. Will Conklin be able to pay for the kind of phenomenal outreach he'll most definitely need to win reelection, or will Duncan be able to turn this around and run against a "corrupt insider incumbent"?

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village
Nested into SD 16

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 47%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 62%
R Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. And even worse, he's raised very little $ so far.

Unless Washoe Democrats run into a miracle soon, this is probably the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Lemmon Valley/Sparks- Shadow Mountain
Nested into SD 14

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 49%
Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 59%
R Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well? So far he's outraised Espinosa by about 2-1, he's working the field hard on his own, and he can count on state party field work (for Obama and Shelley Berkley) to turn out more Democratic voters for him as well.

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---

Since March, the number of true Tossup races has shrunken. On one hand, Republicans have gained more of an upper hand in securing 4 and flipping 19, Democrats have gained more of an edge in holding 5, 12, and 29, as well as in winning the new 9. So here's the new list of the hottest Assembly races, listed in order of likelihood of Democratic win.

41 (Hold)
35 (Flip)
29 (Hold)
21 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
31 (Hold)
37 (Hold)
13 (Flip)
4 (Flip)
19 (Hold)

If the election were today, I'd draw the line after 31. This would mean Republicans gain 19 and 37... And knock out the very person Democrats thought would be the next Speaker. Ouch!

However, Republicans shouldn't get too giddy. After all, this also means Democrats gain 20 (a safe pickup), 9, 35, and 21, which is all Team Blue needs to reach the magic #28 needed for a 2/3 supermajority! While Assembly Democrats may be embarrassed over losing their Speaker-in-waiting, others may be happy just to be back at the sweet spot of 2/3. This would mean a net gain of 2 seats for Democrats.

Meet the Candidates: Assembly District 12 (Ohrenschall)

On Wednesday, we heard from plenty of Legislature candidates at the Henderson Democratic Club's April candidate forum. So far, we've talked about the Democratic candidates running in the AD 20 and AD 21 open seats. However, we also heard from a couple incumbent legislators whose districts were radically reshaped in redistricting. One of them was Assembly Member James Ohrenschall (D-Sunrise Manor).

He's running again, but he must now run in a much different district. As we discussed last week, this seat has become more competitive with the addition of the tony (and VERY heavily Republican) Henderson communities of Lake Las Vegas and Calico Ridge. Apparently, he even got a primary challenger last month. Yet despite all this, Ohrenschall intends to keep fighting.

I sensed some of that fighting spirit in his speech on Wednesday. He discussed not only his upcoming campaign for the new AD 12, but also why he first ran for Assembly in 2006 and what he's been doing in Carson City since then. It's so easy to become cynical and discouraged after seeing what happens there. And even though I could sense some frustration from him, James Ohrenschall didn't sound like someone who wanted to throw in the towel and give up.



He pretty much laid it all on the line. And he didn't back away from any of his progressive values. In my humble opinion, he really looked and sounded courageous. And after hearing his story, I started to get that little glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, good things can come out of Carson City in the near future. We shall see.

Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction, Part II

Yesterday, we took a fresh look at what's going on in a handful of critical Senate races this fall while also calling out a ridiculous election prediction from the local "newspaper". Today, our attention turns to the Assembly as we notice what's been happening since October. And yes, we'll again be noting why the "newspaper" got #NVLeg totally wrong.

So far all of the safe seats identified in October remain safe, so we'll save some time and only look at seats in play and/or likely to change hands. Here we go!

Clark County

AD 2
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

This will be the last time AD 2 is featured on this list, as Democrats failed to recruit anyone to run against John Hambrick. He gets a free ride back to Carson City, and Nevada Democrats blow a potential pick-up opportunity.

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Originally, it looked like Republicans would have a significant advantage in retaining this seat. However, plenty has changed since we last checked in October. For one, local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here.

So why am I upgrading this race to "Tossup" status? Simple. Local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here!



Thankfully for Nevada Democrats, they actually have a candidate running here. We'll have to see how serious Ken Evans' campaign is. But really, can any campaign involving Michelle Fiore be all that serious? If it weren't for the more conservative nature and slight GOP registration edge in this district, this would be an easy flip for Democrats. But even as is, Democrats have a better shot than ever before here.

AD 5
Las Vegas/Spring Valley- Peccole Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent Democratic Assembly Member Marilyn Dondero Loop remains one of the most endangered incumbents of this cycle simply because of the huge changes made to her district in redistricting. What had been a pretty safe Democratic West Side seat is now a thorny, swingy suburban district that Dondero Loop will most certainly have to work for to win again.

Now, it's just a question of how hard Bill Harrington and Nevada Republicans are willing to work to take this seat away from her.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Democrat Andrew Martin ran as an outsider for Assembly in 2008 in a more GOP leaning AD 13. However, he managed to shock most pundits by coming out of nowhere to get 49% against then incumbent Assembly Member Chad Christensen (R-Las Vegas). This time, he has the Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsement in a new Democratic leaning AD 9 comprising the once fast growing and now fast changing Southwest Vegas suburbs. And this time, the odds are much better for Martin to win.

Still, Andrew Martin must first clear the Democratic Primary. (Actually that shouldn't be too hard, since his primary opponent doesn't even have a web site.) Then, he'll be facing either Clayton Hurst or Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman in the general election. But again, considering the leftward shift of this district's politics in recent cycles, this shouldn't be too tough of a seat for Democrats to hold this year.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

Early on, it looked like James Ohrenschall might get a tough fight on his hands in the reconfigured AD 12. And while I still think it's a possibility, it's increasingly looking like a dwindling one. And with even the Assembly Republican Caucus ready to concede this race, this race may soon fall off the radar. Still, we'll keep a close eye on this one for now.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

The bad news for Nevada Democrats: This district shifted a bit to the right in redistricting.
The good news for Nevada Democrats: This district is still within reach.

Oh, and here's some more good news for @NVDems: GOP establishment favorite Paul Anderson is being challenged in the Republican Primary by "tea party" darling Leonard Foster. As we discussed earlier this month, the growing "Muth Caucus" led furor over Governor Sandoval's flip-flop on the sunset taxes may have the biggest impact here.

However, Democrats aren't without their own primary drama here. 2010 nominee Lou DeSalvio is running again, but this time he's being challenged in the primary by local activist and small business owner Leisa Moseley. So far it doesn't look to be as acrimonious as the primary situation on the other side, but we'll still have to see how bad their primary gets before determining if this becomes a top Democratic pick-up opportunity.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

In 2010, Crescent Hardy was fortunate enough to run in a super safe AD 20 that Republicans never had to think about defending. However in 2012, that's all about to change. The new AD 19 may still contain Hardy's hometown of Mesquite along with Republican friendly turf in Old Henderson, but it also picks up more Democratic friendly precincts around Nellis Air Force Base, resulting in a district with only about a 3% Republican registration edge, as well as a district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid won. Incumbent Steven Brooks (D-East Las Vegas) was also originally placed in this district, but he jumped to AD 17 to run in a safer district.

So we'll have to keep an eye on Felipe Rodriguez to see if he can do what no Democrat has done before.

AD 20
Paradise/Henderson: Sunset Park, Green Valley, Whitney Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 62%
McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 59%
John McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 51%
Brian Sandoval (R) 45%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic (Pick-up)

So whatever happened to AD 20? It got moved in redistricting from rural Clark County to the urban core of Paradise (aka "The East Side") and the older Green Valley North neighborhoods of Henderson. Without a doubt, this is the Assembly seat most likely to change hands this year. And without a doubt, the most action we'll see here will be in the Democratic Primary.

Nevada State Board of Education member Gloria Bonaventura, Former Assembly Member Ellen Spiegel, and local attorney and community activist Kent Ivey are all running in the Democratic Primary here. And again, whoever wins that primary is virtually assured of winning in the general.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

With current Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) stepping down and redistricting radically reshaping this district, AD 21 is also poised to deliver big changes this year. For one, it's dropped Green Valley Ranch to pick up Silverado Ranch. And in doing that, it's shifted from a typically Republican friendly district to a more Democratic leaning district and prime Democratic pick-up opportunity.

Perhaps that's why three Democrats are all vying for this seat: retired Carpenters Union official Rick Wilkening, Touro University dean Dr. Andy Eisen, and attorney, community activist, & "soccer dad" Steve Parke (disclaimer: he's also my neighbor). In addition, we'll likely see a battle royale in the Republican Primary here as Mark Sherwood endorsed attorney & "PTA mom" Becky Harris goes against Clark County Republican Party e-board representative and early "tea party" favorite Swadeep Nigam.

The general election should also be pretty competitive, but the recent political trends in Green Valley South and Silverado Ranch give Democrats the early advantage and the chance for another valuable pick-up. Becky Harris may not make it easy, but the resumes of both Andy Eisen and Steve Parke suggest they're up for the challenge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) is getting a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

Now this should be fun. Local "Gun Store" and "tea party" celebrity Bob Irwin is back (he ran against John Oceguera in the old AD 16 in 2010), but this time he's moving to Henderson to challenge incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson). Irwin has definitely gained plenty of media attention with his "Gun Store", but Mastroluca also earned her own reputation over the years as an involved parent and education activist. This may very well be a "battle of the heavyweights" that keeps us at the edge of our seats all year.

Certainly, AD 29 tipped to the right in redistricting as it shed some Democratic turf to the new AD 20 while picking up some Republican leaning neighborhoods from the old AD 21. Still, April Mastroluca has earned respect as a good campaigner. And considering her past victories over the more moderate Sean Fellows (2008) and Dan Hill (2010), it won't be easy for known "tea party" flame thrower Bob Irwin to unseat April Mastroluca in a Green Valley based district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid still carried.

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

Here's another prime pick-up opportunity for Nevada Democrats. Assembly Minority Pete Goicoechea (R-Eureka) has been representing this district, but he's moving onto the Senate... While his old Assembly District moves from rural Northern Nevada to Clark County and settles in some Southwest Vegas neighborhoods that may ultimately be more interested in sending a Democrat to Carson City.

Still, this isn't stopping Republican Adam Cegavske (yes, Barbara Cegavske's son!) from running here. However, his campaign isn't stopping real estate agent and "tea party" hopeful Tom Blanchard from running here as well. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, local attorney & community activist Nathan Sosa and MGM manager (he runs housekeeping at New York New York) & HRC Las Vegas Steering Committee Co-chair James Healey are running here.

Yet again, we have a wide open seat in "The Wild (South)West" attracting plenty of candidates. But ultimately, I suspect Democrats have the early edge here.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

Still, Marcus Conklin won't make this easy for Wesley Duncan. While his ties to mining lobbyists and gaming insiders may provide Duncan with prime "dirt" to use against Conklin on the campaign trail, they nonetheless provide Conklin with plenty of needed cash to pummel Duncan and respond to those attacks. Don't be surprised if this ends up as one of the ugliest #NVLeg races on record.

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 25
Reno- West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

No one even bothered to challenge Pat Hickey, so this is the last time you'll see this district on this list.

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. Maybe this is the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Sparks- Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well?

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---


All in all, it looks like we'll be seeing a whole lot of change in the Assembly next year. For all we know, the Assembly may even get an unexpected new Speaker next year, along with a whole lot of surprising seat flips in both directions. Like yesterday's Senate forecast, I'll rate the ten hottest Assembly races on the basis of most likely to change parties.

1. AD 20 (R to D)
2. AD 21 (R to D)
3. AD 35 (R to D)
4. AD 19 (D to R)
5. AD 37 (D to R)
6. AD 31 (D to R)
7. AD 4 (R to D)
8. AD 29 (D to R)
9. AD 5 (D to R)
10. AD 13 (R to D)

If the election were today, I'd stop the flipping at #6. This would mean Espinosa unseats Daly, Duncan unseats Conklin, and Hardy wins reelection, giving Republicans three pick-ups. However, this would also mean the Democrats win the trio of open seats previously held by Republicans, giving Democrats three pick-ups. So funny enough, in the end we get the same 26-16 split we had last session... Just in an odd way that includes interesting pick-ups and painful losses for both parties.

Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction

Yesterday, a certain "newspaper" posted this article on the race for the Legislature this year... And the Carson City reporter at the "newspaper" actually managed to repost an entire Senate Republican Caucus press release predict a 12-9 Republican majority in the State Senate next year, as well as expanded Republican numbers in the Assembly. And how, one might ask, did Ed Vogel reach this conclusion? Basically, he gave every marginal seat to the Republicans!

I mean, come on, how ridiculous is that? The only way that happens is if somehow 2012 is another huge "Republican wave election". And as we've been chronicling here for some time, that just isn't likely to happen. If even Rasmussen's latest poll shows President Obama winning Nevada over Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin, then we won't be seeing another "Republican wave election" this fall. And if Nevada Republicans continue to spend more time infighting than organizing, then I have a hard time seeing how some magic "momentum" successfully counteracts the actual organizing that Nevada Democrats are doing on the ground this year.

Not even Ralston was buying that "newspaper analysis" last night.



So what does the real picture look like? Let me help. Since the last time we did race ratings was in October, we were probably overdue for an update anyway. But considering the crazy @ss spin we saw in a certain "newspaper" yesterday, it's definitely time to update the state of the race. And unlike that certain "newspaper", we're not just copying a press release.

Today, we're covering the Senate. (And I'm just listing the competitive races below because the safe seats are all the same as October's initial analysis.) Tomorrow, we'll be looking at competitive Assembly races.

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley/Silverado Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
56% Obama (D)
42% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
41% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
45% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

I still live in this district, so I at least like to think that I know more about what's actually happening in this district than what most media pundits think they know. Basically, SD 5 was reworked in redistricting to become mostly a Green Valley/Silverado Ranch district with just some of Old Henderson remaining. Overall, it transforms the district from what had been considered Republican leaning turf into a more Democratic friendly district.

Still, Nevada Democrats can't take anything for granted here. Former Henderson City Council Member Steve Kirk has been endorsed by the Senate Republican Caucus, and he still has a base of support here. However, he can't take anything for granted here either, as local doctor Annette Teijero is also running in the Republican primary and seems to be emerging as the "tea party" favorite here. While Kirk seems to be leading in the "money race", Teijero and Democratic candidate (and former State Senator) Joyce Woodhouse are getting a head start in the always important field game.

This seat may again come down to the wire, and this seat may again be "bombed" with intense campaign spending, but this time strong Democratic performance at the "top of the ticket" is almost certain to be the key that sends Joyce Woodhouse back to Carson City. While Kirk's early fundraising advantage has me placing this seat in "Tossup" territory for now, I honestly don't think this will be as easy of a Republican pickup as Michael Roberson and most media pundits had originally expected this district to be. (In fact, I won't be surprised if they don't pick up this seat at all.)

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin/Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
55% Obama (D)
43% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
53% Harry Reid (D)
43% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
52% Brian Sandoval (R)
44% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

If any seat is the ideal example of the high stakes of this year's Legislature elections, it's probably this one. Democrats were already starting to get nervous about this seat when incumbent Senator Allison Copening (D-Las Vegas) faced heat over HOA related legislation she introduced last session. But when Copening announced her retirement in January, the race really opened up. Republicans had already recruited Mark Hutchison, the lawyer who accepted Jim Gibbons' offer to represent Nevada in the anti-health care reform law suit now being argued in the US Supreme Court. However, Democrats had the good fortune of finding 2010 SD 9 candidate Benny Yerushalmi (who only lost to Elizabeth Halseth by about 5%) willing to run in the new SD 6. Thomas Welsh is also running in the Democratic Primary, but so far Yerushalmi looks favored to win that primary.

Most likely, the general election will be the big fight here. And already, Yerushalmi vs. Hutchison vies to be the among the key marquee fights for #NVLeg this year. While the new SD 6 is more Democratic than its previous incarnation, it's still a close enough district to leave Benny Yerushlami and Nevada Democrats hardly any room for error. And considering the big money likely heading Hutchison's way, Yerushalmi will definitely need a stronger field presence this time than he did in 2010 to actually seal the deal this year.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
58% Obama (D)
40% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
41% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
46% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Of all the critical Senate seats up this year, this one looks to deliver the biggest change. For one, it wasn't even supposed to be up this year... But a surprise resignation by Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise) changed that assumption, and that really changed the whole dynamic of the race for the Legislature. What had been a tough hill for Democrats to climb to hold onto the Senate is now becoming a tough hill for Republicans to climb (yes, really, Ed Vogel & R-J pundits) to flip it.

What really made Halseth's resignation a huge blow for Michael Roberson's hopes of becoming Majority Leader was that SD 9 changed radically in redistricting. What had been a more GOP friendly exurban Western Clark County district is now an ethnically diverse and increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest Vegas Valley district. And like SD 5, all it takes is strong Democratic turnout and good "top of the ticket" Democratic performance to flip this seat.

And by landing a top notch candidate in Justin Jones, Nevada Democrats are serious about picking up this seat this time. "Angry Professor" Fred Conquest is also running on the Democratic side, but it (again) doesn't look like he's running a serious campaign (seriously, his web site still features his failed 2010 Gubernatorial run). I honestly don't think Justin Jones should have a problem getting through the Democratic Primary. And with former Joe Heck & Dean Heller spokesperson Mari St. Martin and "tea party" favorite Brent Jones running on the Republican side, I'm liking Justin Jones' chances in the general election. While Democrats still can't take this seat for granted, I am thinking this is the Senate seat most likely to change hands this year.

SD 18 (Open)
Las Vegas- Northwest/Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
50% Sharron Angle (R)
45% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
38% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Early on, it looked like the most competition we'd see here would be in the Republican Primary... But that all changed when Kelli Ross announced her candidacy here. Not only does she look like a formidable candidate in her own right, but her husband (Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross) will probably help her connect with folks in ways that many Democrats typically can't in this Northwest Las Vegas district.

However, Democrats shouldn't get too giddy about picking up this new seat (created mostly from remains of the old SD 9 and SD 12, and moved here from rural Nevada) just yet. Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas) doesn't quite have the same "fire breathing" reputation as the guy he replaced, so running against him may not be a cake walk. However Hammond isn't getting a cake walk in the Republican Primary, since fellow Assembly Member Richard MacArthur (R-Las Vegas) is also running, and MacArthur DOES have a "fire breathing" reputation that's endearing to the local "tea party" set here. Meanwhile in the Democratic Primary, Kelli Ross is being challenged from the left by former PTA President Donna Schlemmer.

This may very well be one of those races that's competitive from beginning to end. And perhaps more so than any of the other marginal Senate seats, this one may really hinge on what happens in the primary. Hammond seems to be the less doctrinaire conservative Republican, while Ross looks to be the more moderate Democrat. So of course, their general election asset may turn out to be the key primary liability.


Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
57% Obama (D)
40% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
40% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
37% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

This most definitely promises to be the big #NVLeg marquee race of the north. And the stakes here are incredibly high. Two seasoned legislators are running against each other, and the winner of this race may very well be "the majority maker". This explains why the competition is already turning fierce up north.

As we can see in the above video, Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) is trying to flip-flop his way to the middle of the road after pivoting quite far to the "tea party" right in last year's NV-02 special election. Meanwhile, Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) had to make a big move of her own, albeit a physical one to a smaller house after her kids moved out of the old house, to run in the new SD 15. And unlike the old Washoe Senate 3 district where Bill Raggio served for nearly four decades, the new SD 15 has only a tiny (about 2%) GOP registration advantage... Yet recent election results show the district to be trending Democratic, which is why Greg Brower and Michael Roberson haven't been resting easily ever since Sheila Leslie's big move.

This may very well be the most expensive #NVLeg race in history once all is said and done. Republicans must win this seat again to have a chance at getting any kind of Senate majority. But if Sheila Leslie wins SD 15 for Democrats, then Democrats are virtually assured of keeping the Senate as well as keeping alive hopes of a possible 2/3 veto-proof supermajority.

---

So this is what's at stake with Senate elections this year. If Republicans win at least four out of the five marginal seats listed above, Roberson becomes Majority Leader. On the other hand, all Democrats have to do is win at least two out of these five races to keep the majority (and I think Dems already have a head start here with SD 9 now on the table). Yet if 2012 turns out to be a great year for Nevada Democrats, President Obama manages to win the state handily again, and Democrats manage to pull a spectacular feat of winning all five competitive Senate races, then Democrats finally achieve that 2/3 veto-proof supermajority that's been enticing them for quite some time.

So what's really possible? Let me conclude by ranking the seats in order of likelihood of changing parties:

1. SD 9 (R to D)
2. SD 15 (R to D)
3. SD 6 (D to R)
4. SD 5 (D to R)
5. SD 18 (R to D)

Right now, I'd stop the flipping somewhere between #2 and #3. Yes, I know, I should be more decisive here! OK, so let's be generous and keep the flipping going all the way to #3. This means Hutchison turns SD 6 from Blue to Red while Leslie turns SD 15 from Red to Blue and (Justin) Jones turns SD 9 from Red to Blue. And this means Woodhouse keeps SD 5 Blue while Hammond or MacArthur keeps SD 18 Red. So in the end, I guess the "newspaper" actually did get the final Senate numbers correct... They just got the parties mixed up. (They say Republicans get a 12-9 majority. I say the current state of play suggests a 12-9 Democratic majority.)

Got to love that "newspaper". ;-)

Who's Running Where: NV-04

Many were excited when the dream became real. Finally, Nevada has a 4th Congressional District up for grabs and open to run in. And now that filing is open, we're getting a better sense of who's running here.

NV-04 is an interesting district in that it runs through all the cross sections of Nevada's topography and demography. It stretches from the tranquil rural confines of Yerington and Ely to the bustling urban atmosphere of Las Vegas and North Las Vegas. It includes hard hit, poverty stricken neighborhoods, like Pahrump, as well as Nevada's wealthiest neighborhoods, like Summerlin. It includes some of the whitest and some of the most minority-majority communities in the state. And despite the 10% Democratic voter registration advantage, it's a district that both parties are fighting for.

Danny Tarkanian is taking advantage of this by running for office yet again. He's already busy advocating for the transfer of nuclear waste to Yucca Mountain, running a campaign office outside the district, and showing he really has no commitment beyond that of
perennially running for something.



And then, we have Barbara Cegavske and her magnificent delusions of grandeur. Apparently, she thinks she can even develop her own family dynasty! She also thinks she can easily maneuver the challenge of saying things that completely contradict her own legislative record. I can't wait to see what she does next.

But wait, there's more! Also running for the G-O-TEA is Dan Schwartz, the guy who's already hurling the crazy onto our TVs. He looks like fun.

And finally, Nevada State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) is expected to file today. He's risen from adversity to success in both the private and public sectors. He rose to many challenges in Carson City, and he seems hungry to tackle more challenges in Washington. He's even been tapped by the DCCC to become a "Majority Maker" and help other Democratic candidates running in more difficult districts.

However, Horsford can't rest too easily. Although Democrats do have an advantage in the new NV-04, it's looking increasingly obvious that Republicans are not rolling over. Rather, they're preparing an all out assault to compete. We'll have to see how Horsford plans to challenge the crap they're all but certain to fling their way. And we'll have to see how Horsford and the Democratic Party can put together an effective field operation from Yerington all the way to Summerlin. While I'm sure there will be even more money spent on TV ads here, I suspect the candidate who spends the most time really connecting with voters across the district and offering real solutions to the economic challenges present everywhere from Ely to North Las Vegas will emerge victorious. Let's see how Steven Horsford can rise to this next challenge.

Kelli Ross Jumps Into SD 18. Who's Angered More by This?

Buoyed by improving poll numbers for President Obama and the Democratic Party nationally, as well as a ton of bad news for Michael Roberson and his Senate Republican Caucus closer to home, Nevada Democrats are feeling more upbeat lately about the upcoming election and what it will do to change the balance of power in Carson City. Now it feels like we may be approaching "The Perfect Storm". Senate District 18 hadn't really been on the top of pundits' lists of hot #NVLeg races, mainly because of its recent voting record... But this may cause that to change immediately.

I was educated in Las Vegas public schools, and I met my husband Steve in the 3rd grade. I spent 20 years in the casino industry, working in various management positions in advertising and marketing. Then in 1998, my family took our own shot at the "American Dream," opening a small family owned electrical contracting company that created good-paying jobs with benefits.

But like hundreds of other Las Vegas businesses, our family business, our employees and their dreams were shattered by the worst recession in half a century. But seeing the business closed never stopped me and my family from giving back to the community.

My credentials as a community advocate are extensive. I coached little league baseball, served as a scout leader, and I'm an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, and have been a mentor/leader to young women.

As a businesswoman, I'm the Past Nevada Chairwoman of the Women Business Enterprise Council, former member of the Southern Nevada Chapter of National Electrical Contractors Association, and have also been a member of the Better Business Bureau.

I'm running for State Senate District 18 because it is time we had someone who will stand up to the partisan bickering and fight to get things done. I've owned a small business. I understand the challenges of this economy and my family has been hit hard like most Las Vegans. I know first-hand the difficulties that job creators are facing in this difficult economy. And as a mother and grandmother, I know the importance of a first class public education system, to prepare our residents for the jobs of tomorrow, and to grow and diversify our economy. A family woman and a business woman, I've learned the art of balancing priorities and getting things done.

Oh, yes. That's right. Kelli Ross, wife of current Las Vegas Ward 6 Council Member Steve Ross (who just survived his own recall election earlier this month), is now jumping into the political world herself and running as a Democrat in SD 18.

Now one would think Democrats would get quite excited about this development. After all, this forces Republicans to play defense in yet another district that they had been counting on winning. Now that the vacant SD 9 seat in the southwestern Las Vegas suburbs leans Democratic after redistricting, and now that Sheila Leslie and Greg Brower will be duking it out in the new SD 15 seat in western Reno, Republicans will have much more of an uphill battle in their effort to retake the Senate.

So why did "Mr. Gleaner" rip into a tirade against Kelli Ross on his new KSNV (Vegas NBC) show today? Take another look at that R-J article I linked to above. Kelli Ross called herself "very conservative" and "not partisan". And considering her husband's tendency to embrace extreme anti-equality bigots, show a frightening lack of knowledge on the big issues of the day, and not even try to show interest in smart local policy, some progressives are already afraid of how similar Kelli may be to Steve.

So obviously, a lot of folks already have a whole lot of questions about this new development in SD 18. What will Kelli Ross say about our broken tax code? How will she approach matters of investment in public education? Will she be more open to Southern Nevada's LGBTQ community? And can she juggle all of this while still managing to defeat Scott Hammond or Richard MacArthur in the general election?

Honestly, I'm still trying to make sense of all of this myself. On one hand, I actually am excited that Roberson & Co. will be forced to play defense in yet another district that they wrongly assumed would be a "gimme". And come on, would a "Majority Leader Michael Roberson" be beneficial to pro-equality efforts, progressive tax reform, or investment in our public infrastructure in any way, shape, or form?

However, I can't simply dismiss genuine policy concerns about Ross just because of partisan interests. Yes, more Democrats in Carson City may be helpful... But so will better Democrats. And considering the Ross' recent history, there may be plenty of reasons to doubt whether Ross will be able to stand with progressives on any of our major policy priorities. So perhaps we'll just have to see how the SD 18 race develops... And whether progressive voters in Northwest Las Vegas will have to hold their noses to improve the situation in Carson City.

10 of 11: Redistricting!

This is probably the quirkiest and funniest story of 2011. At the start of the year, everyone was wondering what kind of deal would be made to please most incumbents and share the treasures of Congressional gerrymandering. Honestly, that's what I was thinking when I released my first scenario for changing Nevada's Congressional map. I mean, come on... Nevada's Legislature had always been able to agree to a bipartisan gerrymander that kept most happy. Couldn't they do it again?

By April, the answer was starting to sound like one big fat "NO!" And as spring sprang and the budget brawl was becoming increasingly brutal, Nevada's pundit class was finally starting to realize that a huge "game change" was in the works. And despite the Legislature brokering a budget deal in late May (once the state Supreme Court forced it), a compromise gerrymander was looking increasingly impossible. And once sine die was reached in early June, the legal fight officially became a battle royale... And I noted that it wasn't exactly a bad thing.

Maybe this really isn't a bad thing? After all, the current districts we have are a result of a bipartisan "incumbent protection" gerrymander. Perhaps now that judges will decide the new district boundaries rather than politicians looking to protect their own behinds and/or use redistricting as a bargaining chip for something else, we'll see Congressional and legislative districts that actually make more sense. Here's to hope!

In August, redistricting took a weird turn when Judge James Todd Russell appointed "special masters" to handle the map drawing... And decide all the legal issues that he was supposed to rule on! By October, Secretary of State Ross Miller rushed to the Nevada Supreme Court to beg our state's highest court to end what seemed to be turning into a fiasco. By then, most of our state's politicos were begging Governor Sandoval and the legislators to try one more time to agree on some sort of redistricting compromise. Jon Ralston most notably asked the Gube and the Leg to "make them (Judge Russell and the "special masters") irrelevant", but I wasn't ready to give up on our new bold experiment just yet.

So is independent redistricting perfect? Nope, just look at what's happening next door. But by the same token, we can also look next door and see an overall better functioning process that gives voters more control than the usual powers that be. And that would be quite the "special" departure from the usual politics that surrounds redistricting here in Nevada.

I honestly don't know if the current judiciary mess or retrying the Legislature is the better path to take for this current round of redistricting here. But moving forward, we really need to reexamine our State Constitution (which currently requires the Legislature to redraw its own districts and Congressional Districts) and ask if we really want to endure this kind of nonsense ten years from now.

I noted that despite many legal and political hiccups, both Arizona and California ultimately ended up with fairer and more logical Congressional and Legislature maps. Maybe if we just let this process work, Nevada could also be as lucky?

Oh, we certainly ended up so! The new maps were released in mid October, and the new state of play suddenly sent a whole lot of politicians scrambling. And in addition to Congress, the Legislature also saw a huge overhaul as both Assembly and Senate districts shifted southward.

Of course, this made the Nevada GOP furious. Funny enough, they were originally pushing for court drawn maps in the hope of the redistricting law suit landing on the lap of a Republican friendly judge. And of course, they got that! However, they still threw a temper tantrum once the new maps emerged. Why? Oh, it wasn't a gerrymander... And all of a sudden, they were forced to acknowledge the shift of the balance of power from rural white Republicans to multicultural and multi-ethnic urban and suburban Democrats.

Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is [Assembly Member Pete] Goicoechea [R-Eureka] really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year. [...]

So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.

For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.

This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes are changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.

In the end, only minor changes were made to the Legislature maps and the Nevada Supremes ultimately green-lighted the new maps this past fall. So in addition to the wide open Legislature races, we now have a red hot (even if deep blue) Democratic primary in NV-01, a real barnburner of a general election coming to Joe Heck in NV-03, and Barbara Cegavske's increasingly comical delusions of grandeur in NV-04. And who knows, maybe at some point NV-02 will join in on the fun and games next year as well.

Redistricting Update: NV-0X No More... & NVLeg Almost Settled

Southern Nevada’s plethora of Democratic congressional candidates no longer have an excuse to delay announcing which district they will run for next year.

Carson District Judge James T. Russell today approved new district maps drawn by his three court masters after weeks of public hearings and number crunching.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats voiced an objection to the maps that reject the GOP argument that Hispanic voters were entitled to a majority-minority district under the Voting Rights Act.

Nice to see that's settled... But it's not all over yet.

Lawyers for both Republicans and Democrats said they need to review changes that Russell made to the Senate districts drawn by the masters before deciding whether to appeal to the Nevada Supreme Court.

Republicans had objected to the way the masters drew the Senate districts, arguing they gave an unfair advantage to Democrats in three Southern Nevada districts.

Russell rejected that argument, but said state Sen. Barbara Cegavaske’s district was too irregularly shaped to comply with the law. His changes had little impact on the partisan registration of the three districts Republicans objected to.

Well, SD 8 under the original map did look weird. As long as no one tries to manipulate this process to gerrymander for the Republicans, we should be OK. Perhaps since Judge Russell has already come under fire for rigging the NV-02 special election earlier this year, he'll mind his manners now. It seems like Russell is only making minor changes with the Summerlin area Senate Districts, so hopefully the Nevada Supremes can sort it all out in a fair manner.

But in the mean time, it's good to know the maps are starting to be set in stone now. It's time for the Nevada GOP to give up its fantasies of total gerrymander.

Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Assembly

Last week, we had a chance to see what's at stake under the new Senate map proposed by Judge Russell's special masters. Now, it's the Assembly's turn as we examine how the political state of play changes there.

This morning, we discussed why rural Republicans in particular are screaming bloody murder over this map. Long story short, they lose more power. And while we saw them fume mostly over the Senate map, the Assembly map doesn't look all that great for them either.

Safe Republican Seats:

AD 23 (Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury)

AD 32 (Incumbent: Ira Hansen)

AD 33 (Incumbent: John Ellison)

AD 36 (Incumbent: Ed Goedhart)

AD 38 (Incumbent: Tom Grady)

AD 39 (Incumbent: Kelly Kite)

AD 40 (Incumbent: Pete Livermore)

Safe Democratic Seats:

AD 1 (Incumbent: Marilyn Kirkpatrick)

AD 3 (Incumbent: Peggy Pierce)

AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop)

AD 6 (Incumbent: Harvey Munford)

AD 7 (Incumbent: Dina Neal)

AD 8 (Incumbent: Jason Frierson)

AD 10 (Incumbent: Joe Hogan)

AD 11 (Incumbent: Olivia Diaz)

AD 14 (Incumbent: Maggie Carlton)

AD 15 (Incumbent: Elliot Anderson)

AD 16 (Open)

AD 17 (Incumbent: Kelvin Atkinson)

AD 18 (Incumbent: Richard Carrillo)

AD 20 (Open)

AD 24 (Incumbent: David Bobzien)

AD 27 (Incumbent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson)

AD 28 (Incumbent: Lucy Flores)

AD 30 (Incumbent: Debbie Smith)

AD 42 (Incumbent: Irene Bustamante Adams)

As you can see above, Democrats already start off with an overwhelming 19-7 advantage in safe seats! Democrats only need to win 3 of the below competitive districts to keep the majority, 7 seats to maintain their current 26-16 advantage, or 9 seats to get back to the 28-14 veto proof supermajority they briefly enjoyed in 2009.

So how can Republicans stop them? It's no easy task, as we're about to see below.

Clark County

AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
53% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
49% Harry Reid (D)
47% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
56% Brian Sandoval (R)
41% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 4 (Incumbent: Richard McArthur-R)
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 9 (Open)
Las Vegas-Northwest/Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 12 (Incumbent: James Ohrenschall-D)
Sunrise Manor, East Las Vegas, Henderson-Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 13 (Incumbent: Scott Hammond-R)
Las Vegas-Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 19 (Incumbents: Crescent Hardy-R and Steven Brooks-D)
Mesquite, Sunrise Manor, Henderson-Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Sherwood-R)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 22 (Incumbent: Lynn Stewart-R)
Henderson-Green Valley Ranch/MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 29 (Incumbent: April Mastroluca-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 35 (Open)
Southwest Vegas/Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 41 (Incumbent: Paul Aizley-D)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Washoe County

AD 25 (Incumbent: Pat Hickey-R)
Reno-West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 26 (Incumbent: Randy Kirner-R)
Hidden Valley, Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 31 (Incumbent: Skip Daly-D)
Sparks-Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

So here I count 5 Lean (R) districts, 6 Tossup districts, and 5 Lean (D) districts. When the leaners are included, Democrats have a 24-12 advantage... Oh wait, that makes a majority! No wonder why Republicans are pissed. They have to win all their safe seats, all their leaners, all the tossups, AND steal at least 4 of the 5 Dem leaning seats to get a majority!

Now to be fair, not everything is coming up roses for the Dems, either. While their path to majority is incredibly easy here, their path back to 2/3 supermajority gets a little tougher. All of their safe seats and all of their leaners only amount to 24 total seats, so they have to win at least 4 of the 6 tossup seats to reach the magic number 28... And at least 3 of those will be incumbent Democrats facing tougher districts with some unfamiliar new constituents (April Mastroluca and Marcus Conklin down south, Skip Daly up north), while incumbent Democrat Steven Brooks and incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy may be forced into battle royale against each other in the new AD 19 where both of them apparently live.

But all in all, Republicans seem to have more to lose under this map, so we can better understand why they're fighting like hell to stop this map from becoming the law of the land.

It's the Population

Surprise, surprise, the new Legislature maps are being challenged. Of course, the Republicans are whining because the proposed maps don't gerrymander the GOP back into power. Yet among those Republicans, there are some former and current legislators throwing a fit for another (albeit just as ridiculous) reason.

Rural lawmakers expressed dismay Tuesday with the latest redistricting maps that would add a big chunk of northern Clark County to the rural state Senate District 19.

While Washoe County would likely be represented by four state senators, the same number it currently has, rural Nevada would go from three representatives to two if not one.

“It dilutes the ‘cow counties,’ ” said Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka. (He’s a rancher, and therefore allowed to use the sometimes-pejorative vernacular for the state’s less-populated counties.)

“The rurals are entitled to be represented like any other minority.”

Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is Goicoechea really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year.



[Face palm]

Eureka County objected to the Senate maps. Former Elko Assemblyman John Carpenter, who served 24 years in the Legislature, also lodged the same complaint, saying Elko County would also include parts of Clark County including west of North Las Vegas and Mount Charleston.

Carpenter said, “My greatest fear is that someday the northern rural counties, the cow counties, would be represented by a senator from Southern Nevada.”

Oh, lordy. Oh yes, it's such an "injustice" to lump Elko and Ely into the same district as Indian Springs and Moapa! Oh, the horrors! (I'm obviously being sarcastic here, since the part of Clark County included in the new SD 19 is sparsely populated. None of North Las Vegas and very little of the City of Las Vegas [just Providence and Kyle Canyon] even touch it.)

So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.

For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.

This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes our changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.

To paraphrase James Carville's famous 1992 statement, "It's the population, stupid." And though rural legislators have long been able to maintain power in Carson City despite the rise of Vegas, time may soon be running out for them.

Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Senate

Until last weekend, Nevada Republicans had high hops of retaking the State Senate. But when Judge Russell's panel of special masters released the new Senate map, Republicans suddenly changed their tune. Why? Ralston touched on it this morning. They thought the deck was stacked in their favor, so they're no mad that they were nonetheless given a junk hand.

But as even Ralston had to admit today, it's downright ridiculous to expect a fairly drawn map that favors Republicans when there are still 65,000+ more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters in this state. So what's in this Senate map that really scares the Nevada GOP? Let me reveal it to you.

Early this week, I did my best to adhere to the contours of the special masters' map in Dave's Redistricting App in drawing these districts for myself. Here are my estimates of the partisan breakdown of the possible new Nevada Senate.

Safe Republican Seats:

SD 12 (Incumbent: Joe Hardy)

SD 14 (Incumbent: Don Gustavson)

SD 16 (Incumbent: Ben Kieckhefer)

SD 17 (Incumbent: James Settlemeyer)

SD 19 (Open)

Safe Democratic Seats:

SD 1 (Open)

SD 2 (Incumbent: Mo Denis)

SD 3 (Open)

SD 4 (Open)

SD 7 (Incumbent: David Parks)

SD 10 (Open)

SD 11 (Open)

SD 13 (Incumbent: Sheila Leslie)

SD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Manendo)

So right from the start, Democrats have a 9-5 advantage in safe seats. Republicans almost have to sweep the remaining competitive districts just to retake the majority! However in glancing the more marginal seats below, that doesn't seem too likely.

Clark County

SD 5 (Incumbent: Shirley Breeden-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Silverado Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
56% Obama (D)
42% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
52% Harry Reid (D)
43% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
45% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

SD 6 (Incumbent: Allison Copening-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin/Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
56% Obama (D)
42% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
53% Harry Reid (D)
43% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
46% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

SD 8 (Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin/Spring Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
51% Obama (D)
47% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
55% Brian Sandoval (R)
40% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Republican

SD 9 (Incumbent: Elizabeth Halseth-R)
Southwest Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
59% Obama (D)
39% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
41% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
49% Brian Sandoval (R)
47% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

SD 18 (Open)

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
50% Sharron Angle (R)
45% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
38% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Republican

SD 20 (Incumbent: Michael Roberson-R)
Henderson-MacDonald Ranch/Silverado Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
54% Obama (D)
44% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
50% Harry Reid (D)
45% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
52% Brian Sandoval (R)
43% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Washoe County

SD 15 (Incumbent: Greg Brower-R)
Reno-Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
55% Obama (D)
42% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
50% Harry Reid (D)
44% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
37% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Now do you see why Nevada Republicans are running scared? The Senate map looks downright atrocious for them in 2014, when Halseth and Roberson are up, and they're left with absolutely no pickup opportunities. And next year, Greg Brower will be forced to defend turf less friendly than Bill Raggio's gerrymandered wonder while Breeden and Copening become harder for the GOP to defeat.

But hey, this is exactly what the Republicans asked for! They encouraged Sandoval to veto the maps passed by the Legislature in hopes of sending redistricting to court. And they were licking their chops when the case landed in Judge Russell's court. The Republicans got everything they wanted in the redistricting process, so how on earth can they complain about the results?

More on Court's Proposed Congressional Districts

(Image courtesy of Las Vegas Sun)

So I played with the numbers last night to get a better sense of the political state of play in redistricting. Now that Judge Russell and his special masters have given us districts, we can get a better sense of who will end up with what. Here are my rough estimates of the partisan makeup of each district after drawing each one as close to reality as possible on Dave's Redistricting App:

NV-01 (Urban Las Vegas):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 42%

Democrats who live here- Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen

Republican who lives here- Barbara Cegavske

Race Rating- Safe Democratic

NV-02 (Reno-Carson/Northern Nevada):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Democrats who live here- Kate Marshall, Jill Derby, Jessica Sferrazza

Republicans who live here- Mark Amodei, Sharron Angle

Race Rating- Leans Republican

NV-03 (Henderson, Southwest Vegas, & South Clark County):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Democrat who lives here- John Oceguera

Republicans who live here- Joe Heck, Elizabeth Halseth

Race Rating- Tossup

NV-04 (North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Northwest Vegas, & Central Nevada)

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Democrats who live here- Steven Horsford, John Lee, Larry Brown

Republicans who live here- Ed Goedhart, Shari Buck

Race Rating- Leans Democratic

So this is what we have so far: one solidly safe Democratic seat, one Democratic leaning seat, one tossup seat, and one Republican leaning seat. As it stands now, Nevada Democrats likely have at least two seats (NV-01 and NV-04) firmly in their pocket while Republicans have a good leg up in one seat (NV-02). NV-03 will probably be the barnburner that both sides will have to fiercely contest again.