None

Last I checked, we're now over halfway through 2013. I'm sure for some of us here, the 2012 Election has become a rather distant memory. Yet today, we were given a reminder of that fiercely fought cycle.

A federal appeals court ruled Wednesday that voters in Nevada will continue to have the right to choose none-of-the-above on their ballot.  A 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel rejected a Republican-backed lawsuit that claimed the "none of these candidates" ballot option was unconstitutional. "The district court's ruling is a triumph for the voters of Nevada," said Secretary of State Ross Miller. "Voters who want to express their dissatisfaction with the federal and statewide candidates on the ballot should have the option and freedom to do it."

The Nevada Republican Party actually filed this suit last year in hopes of striking down a nefarious villain of Mitt Romney. No really, that's what they believed. I wonder if they've yet noticed the ironic twist of fate Ralston caught yesterday.

The lawsuit was filed a year ago to erase None of the Above is that it was filed by delusional Republicans who believed Mitt Romney had a chance to win Nevada and they needed to prevent those not thrilled with him from having a place to discard their vote. Forget that there were plenty of third-party options happy to accept a protest ballot. Suddenly, longtime Republicans such as ex-Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury had epiphanies that somehow the option disenfranchised voters. It was complete nonsense with a pathetically obvious political motivation.

The irony, though, is that Republicans may have needed None of the Above to save Sen. Dean Heller, who won his race by only 12,000 votes over Rep. Shelley Berkley. In that contest, None of the Above took 45,000 votes. Maybe a third-party candidate, who received 49,000 votes (most of them surely protests against both contenders) would have taken all of those None of the Above ballots if it wasn’t available. But I doubt it. If the GOP had won the suit, Romney still would have lost decisively and Heller might be out of a job.

Do Nevada Republicans actually want to continue pursuing this law suit? Have they thought of the consequences of taking this choice away from Nevada voters? Oh, and how does "None of These Candidates" disenfranchise anyone?

Or are they still unable to process any of this... Because they still haven't accepted the results of the last election?

New Center... & New Beginnings

On Saturday, The Center (for Southern Nevada's LGBTQ community) celebrated the grand opening of the Bob Forbuss Building in Downtown Las Vegas. Not only is it the new headquarters for The Center, but it also injects some new life into another Downtown Las Vegas neighborhood. That's why the courtyard filled up with people from throughout the community to witness the star-studded ribbon cutting.

Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman and City Council Member Bob Coffin (whose district includes The Center) attended. And they gave some fairly brief remarks before the ribbon cutting. In Coffin's speech, he gave a very full-throated endorsement of LGBTQ equality. He's even hoping there will one day be weddings at The Center!









Also attending on Saturday were Rep. Dina Titus (D-Paradise) and Former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas). Both have long records of supporting Nevada's LGBTQ families. And The Center is now just around the corner from Dina Titus' new district office. Titus talked for a few minutes about her history HERstory with the local LGBTQ community, and about the fabulous new addition to Downtown Las Vegas. Oh, and she also sounded hopeful about SJR 13's passage and marriage equality coming to Nevada.







Even several state lawmakers headed down from Carson City for the grand opening. State Senator (and Center board member) David Parks (D-Paradise), Senator Pat Spearman (D-North Las Vegas), and Assembly Member James Healey (D-Enterprise) all pitched in for the ribbon cutting. And James Healey now has a meeting room named after him!

As mentioned above, there was a healthy crowd outside. Yet when they moved inside, they were stunned by the interior. Thanks to the support of many corporate, foundation, and other community sponsors, The Center now has a cafe inside, along with several meeting rooms (big and small!), a recreation center, staff work space, and even a new area designated just for testing and treatment for HIV/AIDS and other STDs.

It was amazing to see the outpouring of support for The Center and Southern Nevada's LGBTQ community on Saturday. Not too long ago, something like this would have been considered unimaginable. Yet it happened on Saturday.

And now, The Center has a new home to serve the larger community. And Downtown Las Vegas has a new landmark. Hopefully, this will be the start of something amazing.

Scenes from the Campaign Trail in Nevada

Today is the last day of early voting in Nevada. After today, the only day left for voting will be Tuesday. Yet while we have one more day of early voting to occur, we now have a much better sense of where things stand in this final stretch.

Just this morning, Jon Ralston posted this.

Democrats gained about 6,000 voters on the penultimate day of early voting in Clark County while Republicans won Thursday in Washoe County by about 200 votes.

It appears the Democrats, who now lead in Clark by 60,000 voters, will have somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 40,000-voter lead --perhaps slightly more -- in Nevada going into Election Day. If partsian voting patterns are predictable and if independents are, as credible polls show, relatively close, the GOP will need a huge turnout Tuesday for Mitt Romney to have any chance. And it also means that U.S. Senate race could be a nail-biter.

Turnout will be greater than what it was four years ago. In 2008, 392,427 people voted early; this year, with one day left, it's at 388,456.

Here are the totals for Clark, including mail ballots:

Democrats -- 205,878, or 47.6 percent

Republicans -- 144,745, or 33.5 percent

Others -- 81,345, or 18.9 percent

So how did this happen? Let me show you.







There has been a whole lot of canvassing. And we've especially been seeing plenty of canvassing in the Southwest part of the Las Vegas Valley. There are many Democratic voters here. But since there are so many new neighborhoods yet so few early voting sites, Nevada State Democratic Party organizers and volunteers have been working at a furious pace to turn out Democrats to vote early for President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and the local candidates.

But of course, this hasn't been all. There's also been a large contingent of volunteers coming into the office to do GOTV ("get out the vote") phone calls to reach people who possibly couldn't be reached by the canvassers. There have even been a few very special guests dropping by this week to call with the local volunteers.





Yep, both Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera stopped by Nevada Democrats' NV-03 field office in Henderson to thank volunteers. Berkley brought pizza to make sure everyone was well fueled. And Oceguera hit the phones to personally call voters along with the volunteers.

And that's not all. Yesterday, another special guest came to Southern Nevada to pump up Democrats and encourage (even more of) them to vote. Oh, and it just so happened he met us at an athletic field right next to an early voting site.







And here's an excerpt of President Obama's speech at CSN Cheyenne.



So it's been quite an exciting week. And with early voting wrapping up tonight, there's even more work to do with the final round of GOTV for Tuesday. But so far, it looks like Nevada Democrats are prepared for the home stretch. They opened well, but they also have to close well. And that starts today.

La Importancia del Voto Latino

I know we've been constantly discussing the importance of Latino voters in deciding this election, but I just can't stress enough how critical they will be... And really, already are. Today, we're given another reminder courtesy of Latino Decisions.

Overall, Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney. The 52-point gap matches the largest gap among Latinos this year, also found in the October 1 tracking poll.

For the ten weeks the impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll has been taken the most important issue for Latinos consistently has been the economy and the latest release revealed that Romney and the Republican party have been unable to convince Latino voters that they will be better at improving the it. Seventy-three percent of Latino voters trust Obama and the Democrats to make the right decisions to improve the economy compared to only 18% that trust Romney and the Republicans.

“The poll shows that this year we can anticipate record participation among Latino voters,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia “It looks like the “Sleeping Giant” has woken up.”

Over the past weeks the number of Latinos who say they are certain to vote has gone from 81% to 84% and now 87%. At the same time, the percent who say they are more enthusiastic in 2012 has grown from 36% to 40% and now 45%. The percent who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” has gone from 51% to 56% to 59% in the last three weeks.

And apparently, 8% of Latino voters nationwide have already voted early. Expect that number to rise this week, especially here in Nevada once more temporary early voting sites open in heavily Latino neighborhoods in East Las Vegas and North Las Vegas (starting Wednesday).

So why is this happening? Well, remember what we discussed in February...

Look at how far Willard Romney has gone. He's been endorsed by the extreme right Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), the guy perhaps most responsible for Arizona's and Alabama's extreme anti-immigrant statutes as well as someone with well documented ties to white supremacist groups. [...]

Mittens not only opposes comprehensive immigration reform, but he also virulently opposes the DREAM Act, and he's been confronted by Latin@ students over it. And if that weren't bad enough, Romney's economic policies would also hurt Latino families if enacted by stripping away their health care, taking away opportunities to attend college, and destroying Social Security. Oh, and he also has long standing ties to Former California Governor Pete Wilson (R), the guy who ran on the extreme anti-immigrant Prop 187 and ultimately killed whatever chances California Republicans had of ever winning the Latino vote again.

And no matter how much Mitt Romney keeps trying to spin his own record away, the vast majority of Latino voters refuse to forget. This keeps coming back to bite Romney where it hurts the most.

This also has to be scaring Dean Heller. After all, his poll numbers among Latino voters here in Nevada have been falling along with Romney's. And his now infamous comments on immigration reform at the last NV-Sen debate continue to haunt him.

Nevada truly is a dynamic state. One aspect of our state that continues to change fairly rapidly is our demographics. It provided an unexpected twist (to the East Coast based media pundits) to our US Senate race in 2010. And it may yet doom Nevada Republicans again in 2012.

El Voto Latino

We've talked extensively about the importance of Latino voters in this election. Today, we're given at least a couple more reminders of this.

First off, we have the new Latino Decisions poll and some very interesting numbers there.

After a slight decline in last week’s poll, Obama’s support is back up near his previous high 3 weeks ago. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, a combined 71% of respondents were certain or likely to vote for Obama, compared to 67% last week and 72% two weeks ago. A combined 20% were certain or likely to vote for Romney, compared to 23% last week and 20% two weeks ago.

One of the most interesting electoral stories over the last two weeks may be that while the overall national polls show Romney making noticeable gains on Obama, among the Latino electorate Romney gained only 3 points during his rise, but lost those 3 points back this week and stands at 20%. And a very important footnote to the national polls – if they are not accurately polling and counting Latino voters which will comprise 10% of all voters, they may be overstating Romney’s numbers by 2 or 3 points.

At the very least, this may explain the strange national poll numbers that occasionally pop up. If their likely voter screens are excluding too many Latin@ voters, just as most public polls of Nevada do, then the actual reality on the ground may be different from what's being said on the cable shows. And it explains why President Obama's campaign isn't breaking a sweat over the above mentioned national polls.

However, at least some from the national media are taking a closer look at what's happening here in Nevada. And perhaps they're starting to realize what's actually occurring on the ground.

“Before President Obama made his decision to go forward with deferred action, it was pretty dismal,” said Vicenta Montoya, an immigration attorney and Democratic activist. “I was going to vote for Obama but it wasn’t going to be with grand enthusiasm.”

Now Obama’s order has fired up Montoya and others in East Las Vegas, a swath of shopping centers, tire shops and weathered ranch houses sprawling east from the Strip. It’s the neighborhood of the often-unionized people who make Sin City function: housekeepers, card dealers and taxi drivers.

For some, Obama’s order pulled them into politics. Earlier this month, Hector Rivera’s father asked him what he was going to do with his future. Rivera, a high school senior who was brought into the United States without authorization when he was 5, went to the East Las Vegas Obama campaign office and volunteered.

The teenager already has applied for documents allowing him to work under Obama’s program. “It’s an opportunity for me and future generations,” said Rivera, 17, imagining how his own unborn children could benefit someday. “Even though they’ll be born here, I want to get a better job to give them a better opportunity so they can live a better life.”

Others, like Sergio Solis, have suffered economically but see the president as on their side. Solis had to close a restaurant in Southern California and move here to work as a salesman for an energy company. But, after approvingly mentioning the DREAM Act, Solis said it will take time to correct the country’s course following the eight years of the George W. Bush administration.

“This building here, I can dynamite it and destroy it in five minutes,” Solis said, gesturing to a supermarket where he was handing out brochures. “But I can’t build it back up in five minutes.”

This is a major reason why both Mitt Romney and Dean Heller are in serious trouble here. Like the rest of the G-O-TEA, they have embraced the anti-Latin@ xenophobia of their "base". And now, they are paying the price as Latin@ voters keep their distance from the Nevada G-O-TEA.

As I've been saying all along, this may be the ultimate factor in pushing Nevada (again) into the blue column this fall.

This is How Elections Are Won.

Here in Nevada, early voting started yesterday. And it was truly a momentous occasion. Not only did people turn out to be among the first in this state to cast ballots, but the lines (and the determination of these voters to stay in line to vote) were truly awe inspiring!

Late last night, Jon Ralston leaked the Clark County and Washoe County early vote numbers.

Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge.

So: After one day -- remember it's only oen day! -- using absentees and early votes in Clark and early votes in Washoe (don't have absentees yet), the Democrats have an 11,000-vote lead statewide. Let's see where we go from here. [...]

The Washoe numbers: 48-38, or 4,604-3,619 (Actual registration: 38-38)

Yes, it's only one day. But if it continues like this, Nov. 6 is going to be a very bleak day for Republicans in this state.

Yes, I know. These numbers seem so wildly unbelievable. But really, it happened!

Let me explain to you how it happened. Let's start with this scene at the Galleria Mall in Henderson.



Yes, all these people were actually waiting to vote. Oh, and I was one of them!



And that wasn't all. Throughout the day, Nevada Democrats were making calls and knocking on tons of doors to turn out voters for President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and all other Democrats down the ballot. And most of the voters in this middle class neighborhood just up the freeway from the Las Vegas Strip were happy to see the volunteers at their doors... And they made their plans to vote early.







Funny enough, yesterday evening I saw a group of Republicans canvass this very neighborhood as well. They were dropping Mitt Romney and Dean Heller literature... At DEMOCRATIC doors! And the Democrats in that neighborhood were none too pleased.

And when the "Team Nevada" Republican canvassers were finished, they were picked up by a big white "paddy wagon". No really, I kid you not!

Meanwhile, another set of Democratic canvassers were coming in for the final round of "EGOTV" (early get out the vote) for the day. After all, today is another day of early voting. And there are still many more Democratic voters to turn out.

Believe it or not, this is how elections are won.

Nevada Democrats Finish with 7.17% Voter Registration Lead

Yes, you read the headline correctly. The final voter registration report is here. And here's what's in it:

- Statewide, Nevada Democrats now have a 90,187 raw vote advantage. And yes, that makes for a 7.17% advantage. Back in March, Democrats only had about a 4% statewide edge. And it was even smaller earlier this year.

- In Washoe County, Republicans' voter registration edge has narrowed even further. It's now a mere 1,169 raw votes, or 0.005%. In March, Republicans had a 1.76% edge.

- In Clark County, Democrats are closing with a 127,471 raw vote lead, or a 14.96% advantage. In March, Democrats had an 11.68% advantage countywide.

- In NV-03, Democrats are closing with a 7,066 raw vote lead, or a 2.11% edge. In March, Republicans actually had a tiny 0.01% edge.

- In NV-04, Democrats are closing with a 41,094 raw vote lead, or a 13.27% advantage. In March, Democrats had a 9.91% advantage.

- There are also some eye popping numbers in the key State Senate Districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats have gone from a mere 3.92% registration edge in March to a 5.38% lead now. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats have gone from a 4.36% advantage in March to a 7.12% lead now. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats have risen from a 4.86% lead in March to an 8.10% advantage now. In the West Reno based SD 15, Republicans have gone from a 2.04% edge in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now. And in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans have fallen from a 2.39% advantage in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now.

So clearly, all of Nevada Democrats' hard work in the field paid off considerably. Now, it's all about turnout. And there's already been quite a lot of work to prepare for that.

NV-Sen: Maybe "Newspaper" Can't Save Heller?

Another day, another crazy "newspaper poll". Today, the "newspaper" is claiming Dean Heller has taken a 6% lead overall in the Senate race... And that he's doing so because he's supposedly leading (??!!) among Latino voters and is running close in Clark County. Come on, now. You know what's coming next.



Here's what Ralston says.

"Newspaper" shows Heller up 6. Also: He's winning Latinos by 8, indies by 25 and close in Clark. Welcome 2 fantasyland: http://t.co/V5ZEL0KC

And here's what I say. Again, most public pollsters have a bad habit of undersampling likely Democratic voters. And in particular, Survey USA (the company the "newspaper" now uses for polling) is notorious for paying no interest whatsoever in ensuring it has the proper demographics. There's really no reason to whip into a fury over lousy polls.

It seems like Shelley Berkley herself is not. Instead, yesterday she met with The Las Vegas Sun editorial board to discuss why she believes she has what it takes to serve as one of Nevada's US Senators.

Berkley also took Heller to task for supporting a Republican-backed budget that would reconfigure Medicare, turning the program into a subsidy that Democrats have charged is a voucher program for anyone under age 55.

“That’s not Medicare,” Berkley said. “It’s some version of health care for older Americans, but it’s not Medicare.”

Heller, who has not responded to invitations to address the Sun’s editorial board, has said he was proud of his two votes for the budget in question, commonly referred to as the “Ryan budget” after the congressman and now-vice presidential candidate who wrote it. He has also argued that the changes to Medicare within it are necessary to the long-term sustainability of the program, and do not upset the fundamental object and purpose of the Medicare program.

Berkley listed her positions on energy development (she’s in favor of investing in renewables), small business (she wants to keep their taxes low) and tourism promotion (she wants more visa waivers and travel tax credits) as her biggest selling points for improving the economy in Nevada. [...]

On immigration, Berkley repeated that she would not vote in favor of a compromise bill that did not include a pathway to citizenship for certain undocumented immigrants.

There you have it. This is honestly another big reason why I doubt Heller is doing all that well here in Southern Nevada. He doesn't even want to meet with the editoral board of the one legitimate newspaper in this town! In addition, he's been skipping candidate forums and other opportunities for Clark County voters to meet him. And, of course, he's been struggling as of late to hide his "tea party" sympathies from voters.



Remember this. It's far more insightful than what we're seeing in that other "newspaper" today.

11:00 AM UPDATE:

Here's what Ralston just caught.

I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today.

Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. [...]

All about turnout now and Mellman's models are as good as they get in Nevada.

Yep, yep, yep. The top lines are 41% Berkley (D) & 38% Heller (R) with 5% for the IAP candidate and 11% undecided. While I suspect the IAP candidate may not actually get that high of a vote count come November 6, on the other hand we're talking about a Mark Mellman poll here. He nailed the NV-Sen 2010 results when almost every other pollster choked. This shouldn't be taken lightly.

Democrats Top 7% Voter Registration Advantage Statewide

Ralston broke the news just moments ago. Nevada Democrats almost hit the magic 90,000 mark in raw vote lead today... And the count is not over quite yet!

Here's where we stand now:

- Statewide, the exact Democratic registration lead is 89,605, or 7.15%. In last Friday's statewide report, it stood at 6.93%.

- In Washoe County (Reno-Sparks Metro), Republicans have gone from a 0.68% (or 1,620 raw vote) edge to a mere 0.005% barely there edge (!!!), or 1,172 raw votes.

- And as noted yesterday, Democrats are nearing a very healthy 15% registration advantage in Clark County (Metro Las Vegas).

So it's virtually guaranteed that Nevada Democrats will finish with a voter registration advantage of over 7% and 90,000 raw votes. To further put things into perspective, Nevada Democrats had about 100,000 more voters than Republicans at the end of registration in 2008, and about 60,000 more voters at the end of registration in 2010. Now, it's all about the ground game.

Oh, and by the way, here's what Ralston had to say about that.

MarkHalperin

@RalstonReports on MSNBC: comparing D and R ground game in NV is like comparing "a Ferrari to a Matchbox car." yourmetaphorsmatter

Retweeted by Jon Ralston 8:41am - 15 Oct 12

Need I say more?

NV-Sen: One More Serving of "Moderate" Baloney

This week's debate on "Ralston Reports" marks the final NV-Sen debate of the year. And like previous debates, he tried to sound "moderate" at first. But then, something interesting happened : He started to let his G-O-TEA self shine through.



This has been an ongoing struggle for Dean Heller. He occasionally sends signals, such as cheaply produced letters to registered Democrats and (far more expensive) glitzy TV ads with Brian Sandoval, suggesting he's truly a "moderate consensus builder". However, the problem for Heller is that his own record tells a different story.





Oh, and keep this in mind as well.

The latest flyer in my mail box encourages me to vote for Senator By Appointment Only® Dean Heller in the Nevada senate race because he opposes Obamacare. The Faith and Freedom Coalition of Duluth, GA assures me that Senator Heller would “repeal Obamacare.” I’m not surprised, after all this is Jack Abramoff’s former buddy Ralph Reed’s outfit — he, the refuge from the defunct Christian Coalition, would like me to believe that his Koch Brothers financed FFC has my lily-white interests at heart.

After all, nothing screams "MODERATE!!!" like taking help from an associate of an ex-convict and ex-lobbyist known for marrying the radical religious right with the "Tea Party, Inc." corporate right.

Keep this all in mind next time Heller wants to talk up his "moderate" credentials.

How Democrats Win: On the Ground

Last Friday, Jon Ralston wrote a column that seemed so strangely and simultaneously prescient and deja vu.

The reason Harry Reid’s pollster, Mark Mellman, nailed the result in 2010 was that he correctly forecast what the demographics of the turnout would look like – how many Hispanics, how much Clark County would be of the total, the difference between GOP and Democratic turnout. And the better pollsters know how to change their models as the campaign evolves, to adjust for whatever atmospherics require some adjustment.

One of the more obvious factors is voter registration, especially in a high-turnout, presidential year, when 80 percent or so of voters will turn out, making likely voter samples not as important as in off-years, when turnout is about 50 percent here. The other important factor often not employed by pollsters in Nevada –especially those who have not been conducting surveys in the state for very long – is history.

Both of those indicators tell me that a series of recent polls do not take into account either the surge in Democratic registration or recent history – i.e. the last two cycles.

Long story short: The vast majority of public polling of Nevada is wrong. And it's wrong precisely because these pollsters use "likely voter models" which throw out too many likely Democratic voters, such as Latinos, youth, and people who work the night shift on The Strip and can't answer most pollsters' calls.

So how is this deja vu? Well, let's step into our time machine and rewind to October 2010. In the DC Beltway, the pundits were discussing the details of Harry Reid's political funeral and the coronation of new "Tea Party Queen" and "Soon to Be Senator" Sharron Angle. But in and around the Las Vegas Beltway, those "in the know" knew better. What was key was the ground game, mainly that Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats actually had one while Angle and her "tea party" BFFs were bumbling around with their fancy phones and three-people-to-one-clipboard (No, I'm not kidding or exaggerating!) antics.

In 2010, many pundits just assumed that "TEA" fueled "momentum" would thrust Sharron Angle over the top. What they failed to notice was the phenomenal ground game built by Nevada Democrats. So while Harry Reid was giving his victory speech at Aria, local Democrats were cheering while pundits back in DC were dropping their jaws in total shock.

Fast forward to now. Once again, Nevada Democrats have been incredibly busy in the field. They've been making gains in voter registration like no one had expected just six months ago. Oh, and that's not all.







Last weekend, a group of LA County Young Democrats drove here from Southern California to help the local Nevada Democratic field office in knocking more doors and making more calls. Even more volunteers have been coming in lately because early voting will begin this Saturday. So the field organizers wanted to kick into high gear and get ready for EGOTV ("early get out the vote").

On the doors, volunteers talked to some newly registered Democrats, infrequent voters, and persuadable Nonpartisans & Republicans. So far, the Democrats have been mostly backing President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and John Oceguera, along with some Nonpartisans, while most of the rest of the Nonpartisans (and even a few of the Republicans!) seem to be keeping an open mind.





There were many volunteers grabbing clipboards and walk packets on Saturday. Yesterday, the office filled up again as a mix of the California helpers and local volunteers were making phone calls. The calls were going out to the same set of voters, and similar results were obtained. As one can see above, the "super organizers" at the Henderson field office have mastered the art of volunteer recruitment and retention.

So why does this all matter? Basically, Nevada Democrats have been expanding the electorate and "banking in" votes that most public pollsters aren't even expecting to vote. This is why most of the national and international media reports on the current state of play in Nevada diverge so wildly from what "those in the know" are actually seeing on the ground.

And especially now, more so than ever before, this work on the ground is incredibly valuable. With "tea party" aligned Super PACs dumping so much money into TV ads and "Astroturf" games, a strong field operation is critical in countering this. And so far, Nevada Democrats know exactly when and how to release their "Ace in the hole". It's really all about winning on the ground now.

NV-Sen: More Baloney from Dean Heller

Yesterday, some Democrats actually got this in the mail.





Yep, Dean Heller actually sent this. He's obviously hoping that his "moderate" baloney will be enough to win over enough crossover support to keep him in office. The problem for Heller is that his message sounds just as cheap and flimsy as the production value of this mail piece.

Dean Heller claims he wants "bipartisan" budget solutions, yet he's been backing an extreme push for unbalanced nonsense that would plunge our economy into deeper recession and unemployment if passed. Oh, and it would require cuts on everything from Medicare to children's health care to Pell Grants to infrastructure investment. It's so extreme that not even Paul Ryan's Medicare busting budget could pass muster!

Oh, but of course, Dean Heller has also backed Paul Ryan's plan. And he even voted to throw America into default and threatened a new global crisis last year just because what was being discussed at the bipartisan debt ceiling negotiations was "not good enough" for him. Yet all of a sudden, we're supposed to forget all of this and embrace Dean Heller and his new "moderate" persona?

That's what he was hoping for at last night's debate. But interestingly enough, it all unraveled when he let a little something slip.

On immigration, Heller said he was willing to work with Democrats on reform. He said he supported a pathway to citizenship for those who came here illegally and served in the military or are getting an education.

He said he also supports efforts to push English-only legislation and making it easier to immigrate to the country legally.

“So the principles that I’m trying to support is trying to make these people succeed,” he said. “I want them to succeed here in this country.”

Democrats Thursday night pounced on his reference to “these people,” setting up a conference call with Latino leaders for Friday morning.

“I am deeply insulted by Sen. Heller's disrespectful remarks,” state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, D-Las Vegas, said in a statement moments after the debate.

Just as we discussed last night, this is becoming a big problem for Heller. Already, he's been bleeding support among Latin@ voters because his actions haven't matched his rhetoric. But now that Heller is letting slip his real feelings toward las comunidades Latinas en Nevada, this will only further complicate whatever "Hispanic outreach efforts" he has left.

So Dean Heller has been trying one more time to pull some wool over Nevadans' eyes and make his "moderate" balonet look and smell like real beef. Unfortunately for him, it's become more obvious that something just doesn't smell right.

NV-Sen: Surprising Verdict from Reno News & Review

This morning, we're seeing an interesting twist of an endorsement from Reno News & Review. For Northerner Dean Heller, this kind of statement from a hometown weekly paper isn't helpful.

We hope Nevadans will replace appointed Sen. Dean Heller with Berkley because Heller has been bad for Nevada and for the nation.

Heller had an opportunity when he entered the federal arena with election to the U.S. House in 2006. He was a moderate Republican in the Nevada Legislature, fair and reasonable as secretary of state. He could have shown his party how to serve without being dogmatic, intransigent and contemptuous of his opposition. He could have shown how to work with the Democrats instead of obstructing business. That’s one reason this newspaper endorsed him.

Instead, like so many politicians, when he decided to play the big room, he dashed right where the big campaign money was —money whose givers demand obstruction.

They noted how Heller beat back a primary challenge from none other than Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle... Only to embrace Sharrontology himself afterward. No really, that's his record.

As a member of the House he became just another polarizing, intransigent Republican. He likes attention-getting issues that accomplish little, like his bill to cut off Congressional pay when no budget has been adopted. He’s a show horse, not a work horse.

Heller voted to prevent the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases, voted to keep subsidies for oil companies, voted against health coverage for abortion, voted against extending job discrimination law to gays, voted against marriage equality, voted for and against lettings stockholders vote on executive bonuses.

Wow. Short and sweet.

Indeed, Heller has given Nevada LGBTQ families the cold shoulder, farting at Latinos while demanding their votes, and simply dismissing the concerns of the 99%. In other words, Dean Heller has become a loyal G-O-TEA follower. And apparently, not all Northern Nevadans like that.

NV-Sen: #GameOver for Romney AND Heller?

Just when it seemed like the news couldn't get any better for Nevada Democrats, Jon Ralston had even more good news this morning.

President Obama is stretching his lead to 9 percentage points in Nevada and Rep. Shelley Berkley is up 4 over Sen. Dean Heller in a new Public Policy Polling survey taken for the League of Conservation Voters.

The survey, which you can see below and was taken last week of 501 likley voters, shows Obama up 52-43 and Berkley up 48-44. Those numbers are even greater for the president than other public polls and Berkley's lead will come as a surprise considering other results.

At first, this may be surprising. But when one remembers what's been happening in the field, it all makes more sense.

We can also better understand why Dean Heller has been so dour lately. While the G-O-TEA base continues to turn on Romney, Dean Heller is running into increasing trouble because his political and ideological kinship to Romney is turning off Nonpartisan voters. And with the Republican field effort increasingly looking like a sad joke, it's an open question as to whether Team Nevada really has the resources to turn out enough Romney & Heller voters to even keep the election all that close here in Nevada.

Might this be a sign of the beginning of the end for the Nevada GOP? If Nevada Democrats keep up their work in the field, it may very well be.

NV-Sen/NV-03: Heller's & Heck's "Bad Romance"

Earlier this month, many Southern Nevadans had themselves a "fabulous gay old time" at Las Vegas Pride. Yet while many political candidates came by to court local LGBTQ voters. However, there were some notable absences. Perhaps most notably, Dean Heller and Joe Heck (and their "Team Nevada Shadow GOP") were MIA at Pride.

Hmmm, I wonder why. Could it be?

1. Heller has opposed marriage equality and even domestic partnership benefits for same-sex couples —but no longer wants to talk about it. In 2006, Heller said on his campaign website that he “supports traditional marriage between one man and one woman and will work to defend Nevada values in Congress.” This year, he reaffirmed his belief that “marriage is between one man and one woman” and said he “would not support changing that.” But, he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, “I don’t want it to be the issue in the campaign. I truly don’t want this to be the issue.” He also voted for a 2007 amendment restricting the District of Columbia government from using any federal funding to provide domestic partnership benefits.

2. Heller voted against Hate Crimes protections for LGBT Americans. In both 2007 and 2009,he voted against adding sexual orientation and gender identity to the federal hate crimes laws.

3. Heller thinks it should be legal to fire someone just for being gay. He voted against the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in 2007, which would have banned employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

4. Heller opposed letting LGBT servicemembers serve openly. He voted against Don’t Ask Don’t Tell repeal twice in 2010. In 2009 he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal he supported continuing the discriminatory policy.

5. Heller has been a total zero on LGBT equality. Over the course of the 110th and 111th Congresses, the Human Rights Campaign rated him as voting against the interests of the LGBT community 100 percent of the time.

Notice Heller's downright flippant attitude toward Nevada's LGBTQ families.



Now contrast this with Shelley Berkley and her steadfast commitment to securing equality for all Nevada families.





As we've discussed before, Mitt Romney is leading Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and the rest of the G-O-TEA in embracing teabaggers' bigotry and doubling down on endorsing wrongful discrimination. They're doing this because they still think they need to shore up their "TEA" fueled base. Yet while they're doing this, they're alienating the rest of our increasingly diverse and multicultural state. And with the newest CBS/New York Times poll showing a strong national majority favoring marriage equality, it's quite likely that Nevada voters are trending quickly towards embracing equality as well.

Joe Heck may still be calling marriage equality "a distraction" while he & Dean Heller dutifully stand by the G-O-TEA agenda of belittling and even endangering (!!!) LGBTQ Nevadans, but they increasingly look anachronistic and incredibly out of touch. Just contrast Heck's cold and downright rude remarks with John Oceguera's heartfelt support for marriage equality and full civil rights for LGBTQ Nevadans.



This is a bigger problem for Nevada Republicans than Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and their slick campaign consultants want to admit. And this is the real reason why Heller and Heck refuse to talk about it. But as long as they keep trying to hold down Nevada's LGBTQ families, a growing and strengthening number of Nevada voters may ultimately decide to just hang up on them.

NV-Sen: Still Mediscared

Surprise! As the 2012 campaign approaches the home stretch, Shelley Berkley releases this ad. Not only does it respond to the recent (false) accusations made by Dean Heller, but it also reminds viewers of Heller's own record on Medicare.



Heller has been peddling the same lies his G-O-TEA colleagues have been saying about the Affordable Care Act and its effect on Medicare. But this time, Berkley isn't letting the lies fly.

Last September, Joe Heck tried to make the same argument. What he tried to do then, and what Heller is trying to do now, is fudge numbers in hopes of obfuscating their support for the Romney-Ryan plan to destroy Medicare by privatizing and "voucher-izing" it.

The problem for Heller, just as it was for Heck, is that his rhetoric doesn't match reality. In fact, the Kaiser Family Foundation recently released a report showing how repealing the Affordable Care Act (as Heller advocates) would actually CUT Medicare benefits for seniors while simultaneously raising costs by reinstating insurance company bailouts that the ACA eliminated. In reality, the ACA actually extends the life of Medicare and strengthens it by providing seniors with more health care while also cutting the waste and abuse in the "Medicare Advantage" insurance industry giveaways.

Again, Dean Heller is just trying to confuse voters by muddying the waters on Medicare. Here is what he doesn't want you to remember about the Romney-Ryan-Heller-Heck G-O-TEA plan to gut Medicare.

Beginning 2023, the guaranteed Medicare benefit would be transformed into a government-financed “premium support” system. Seniors currently under the age of 55 could use their government contribution to purchase insurance from an exchange of private plans or traditional fee-for-service Medicare. But the budget does not take sufficient precautions to prevent insurers from cherry-picking the the healthiest beneficiaries from traditional Medicare and leaving sicker applicants to the government. As a result, traditional Medicare costs could skyrocket, forcing even more seniors out of the government program. The budget also adopts a per capita cost cap of GDP growth plus 0.5 percent, without specifying how it would enforce it. This makes it likely that the cap would limit the government contribution provided to beneficiaries and since the proposed growth rate is much slower than the projected growth in health care costs, CBO estimates that new beneficiaries could pay up to $1,200 more by 2030 and more than $5,900 more by 2050. Finally, the budget would also raise Medicare’s age of eligibility to 67. Some seniors who would no longer be eligible for Medicare would pick up employer coverage—but they would pay more in premiums and cost sharing. And since the budget would scale back or eliminate other coverage options, hundreds of thousands of seniors would become uninsured.

The budget would eliminate the exiting matching-grant financing structure of Medicaid and would instead give each state a pre-determined block grant that does not keep up with actual health care spending. This would shift some of the burden of Medicaid’s growing costs to the states, forcing them to —in the words of the CBO —make cutbacks that “involve reduced eligibility for Medicaid and CHIP, coverage of fewer services, lower payments to providers, or increased cost sharing by beneficiaries—all of which would reduce access to care.” The block grants would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $810 billion over 10 years, decreasing federal Medicaid spending by more than 35 percent over the decade. As a result, states could reduce enrollment by more than 14 million people, or almost 20 percent—even if they are were able to slow the growth in health care costs substantially.

This is the brutal reality that Dean Heller doesn't want you to see. So instead of describing what's actually in his party's plan to decimate "reform" senior health care, he's continuing to peddle lies about the Affordable Care Act. However, it now looks like he won't be able to get away with it any more.

How the West Will Be Won: All About NV-03

Last week, we discussed the the stark contrast in focus between the parties here in Nevada. Long story short: While Republican operatives have been focusing more on spinning the media, Democrats have had a laser like focus on field organizing. Today, I wanted us to go in depth some more and explore the heart of Nevada Democrats' field efforts. And as we start our series on "How The West Will Be Won" this fall, I figured there's no better way to start than by examining the field campaign in what may be the most critical Congressional race in the country.

Last Saturday, the Nevada State Democratic Party packed its NV-03 field office with volunteers for a weekend phone bank. In addition to the crew of volunteers, NV-03 Democratic nominee John Oceguera came by to greet them and thank them for all their work in winning the election... And not just for him.







Believe it or not, my home Congressional District will play a huge role in determining the fate of President Obama's second term. For one, this is a district that Obama himself must win in order to win Nevada and our 6 Electoral Votes this fall. And since NV-03 is typically such a bellwether of a swing district, this is also an area where Shelley Berkley must win in order to win the US Senate election here. And since President Obama urgently needs more Democratic allies in Congress next year in order to actually have a Congress that's willing to work for the nation's best interest, he urgently needs for Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera to win alongside him here in Nevada.

So why is NV-03 so important? Basically, we're a unique mix of older (for Nevada, at least) suburbs that have been aging gracefully and newer suburbs that came into existence during the height of the 2000's "Real Estate Bubble". The older suburbs, like Green Valley and the original neighborhoods of Summerlin, were once considered Republican strongholds. But over time, they've become more politically balanced while the newer Southwest Valley suburbs were incredibly diverse from the get-go. Really, NV-03 is the vanguard when it comes to demographic changes here in Nevada. That's why it's become such a critical bellwether.

So the stakes are incredibly high here in The Silver State as we approach autumn. And that's why Nevada Democrats are kicking their "field machine" into high gear. At Saturday's phone bank, at least 1,000 dials were made by the time John Oceguera arrived. And while the volunteers were making dials, the canvass department was recruiting more people to work the field and knock doors.

Every once in a while, there's discussion on the accuracy of most public polling of Nevada. Let me explain why this dilemma has emerged in the last 3 election cycles (2008, 2010, and now 2012). Since 2005, Nevada Democrats have been investing in growing a strong field operation. While activities like voter registration outside the neighborhood DMV and spending a lovely Saturday afternoon making political phone calls don't always seem "sexy", they're incredibly effective when it comes to winning elections. And as Democrats register new voters, re-register voters who have moved since 2008, call them to remind them of the upcoming election, then knock on their doors to make sure they vote, Nevada Democrats are "expanding the electorate" beyond the confines of what most national pollsters and media pundits expect. This is exactly how Harry Reid defied the (national media's pre-set) odds and won reelection in 2010, and this is what Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera are counting on now.

Yet while all of this is happening, Nevada Republicans continue to surround themselves with chaos. On one end, Mitt Romney continues to explain his "bromance" with Paul Ryan... And cause headaches for Republican Congressional campaigns here in Nevada and elsewhere. Meanwhile, the actual Nevada Republican Party continues its slow-motion implosion as it continues to debate the burning issue of... Ron Paul. And with even "The Shadow GOP" caught in an ugly "Bus Wreck", even some Republican insiders have wondered if they can put together a field operation in time to salvage Dean Heller and Joe Heck this fall.

Again, this election will most likely be won or lost in the field. And again, NV-03 may very well be THE key swing district for both the state and the country. So field really does matter here. And in the end, Nevada Democrats' field operation may be that one "X Factor" that manages to make the difference in determining the balance of power in Washington (DC) next year.

NV-03/NV-Sen: While GOP Spin Media, They're Still Falling Behind

This was the scene last November as Nevadans were finally tiring of the "tea party" appeasing antics of Dean Heller and Joe Heck. For the past 18 months, both have been busy nurturing their relationship with the "TEA" tinged ones while occasionally smearing Vaseline on the camera to obscure what this means for Nevada's working families. Many have wondered how they can be defeated.

Today, we (again) have the answer in plain sight. Just don't listen to certain national media pundits telling you to ignore it.





This was the scene in the middle of last month at the Nevada State Democratic Party (NSDP) NV-03 field office in Henderson. Ever since the office opened in June, the party's coordinated campaign (helping Shelley Berkley in the US Senate race, John Oceguera in the US House race, President Obama, and Democratic Legislature candidates) has been working the field at a furious pace. Add to that all the field work Obama's own campaign has been doing since last fall, and we have a recipe for Democratic success in Nevada this fall.





This was the scene the day after our "field day" at the NSDP office. Oh yes, that's right. We need to reexamine the infamous "Tea Party, Inc." Bus Wreck. Remember that the Koch funded AFP "charitable foundation" is supposed to be part of the "Shadow GOP" that's supposed to help Joe Heck, Dean Heller, and Mitt Romney win by sidestepping the "Real Nevada Republican Party" that's now run by Ron Paul acolytes. So really, there's no comparison between Nevada Democrats' "well oiled machine" and Nevada Republicans' greasy chaos.

This was the big news yesterday. After three months of constantly chipping away at Republicans' already meager voter registration advantage, it finally came tumbling down this week as Democrats' regained the edge in the newly configured suburban Las Vegas/Henderson seat. For all the talk of how "strong" Joe Heck appeared and how "well" Mitt Romney seemed to be doing in the constantly swingy Clark County suburbs, Republicans just couldn't hold onto that tiny advantage they had (briefly "gained" thanks to so many Nevada voters being declared "inactive" by the Clark County Election Department early this year). And since NV-03 also happens to be the key region where statewide elections are won or lost, this is big news for President Obama and Shelley Berkley as well.

When thinking of how to win a campaign, I always think of these two words: Field matters. It can very well make the difference between winning and losing. And while it can't always make up for deficiencies in other areas, it can do what many millions of dollars worth of glitzy TV ads can't do in cultivating supporters and turning them out come election time.

So why do we keep hearing from the national media about how "confident" Nevada Republicans are? Basically, one thing that the G-O-TEA consultants are good at is spinning the media. That's why they're able to show their clients looking so "confident". But when we look beneath the surface, we see a completely different picture.

So remember this next time the political "armchair quarterbacks" on the cable networks and DC gossip rags talk about who's supposedly winning the fight for Congress and The White House. As we're seeing in Nevada, what matters more is what's happening on the field and away from the spin room.

Trouble at Tahoe

The Lake Tahoe Summit is today. And already, tension is brewing. As we discussed early this month, everything from climate change to shady Carson City "deal making" has further threatened Tahoe and muddied the lake's future (literally!).

And in case that isn't bad enough, we're seeing political tension brewing up there as well. At the last minute, Shelley Berkley decided to attend the summit. She was planning not to attend after Dean Heller declined to offer her any speech time, but apparently she was later able to secure some "break out time" today with key local Tahoe region leaders.

Yet while many media pundits will be viewing this for the horserace related antics, this actually caught my eye.

The impacts of climate change, including generally warming waters and lessening of mixing of lake waters, appear conducive to high populations of algae, said Geoffrey Schladow, director of the University of California, Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center.

Changing ecological trends are not the only challenge ahead. Another is diminishing funding in the face of the country’s economic troubles.

At last year’s summit, U.S. Sen. Dean Heller — host of this year’s event — spoke of a “new reality” as government funding to pay for costly restoration projects at the lake dries up.

“Quite simply, we need to learn to do more with less,” the Republican lawmaker said at the time.

Yet again, Dean Heller is telling Nevadans to "learn to do more with less" while he keeps looking out for his political patrons. And what's really callous about this is that Northern Nevada's economy is very dependent on the health and well being of Lake Tahoe. If Tahoe isn't looking all that clear, then neither is the future of Northern Nevada's economy.

It's saddening, but it really shouldn't be surprising. This really is Dean Heller's MO. Now that we're in an election year, Heller is going through all the motions of "caring about the future of Lake Tahoe". But when push comes to shove, he doesn't really want to take action on climate change, ensure a smart path forward for sustainable development, or even extend common courtesy with other members of Nevada's Congressional Delegation. We'll have to see if anything beyond a politically convenient photo-op is accomplished today in Stateline.

NV-Sen: The Truth Behind Berkley's New Ads (& Heller's Complaints About Them)

So the pundits are not liking this.



Why? It completely obliterates their previously prepared narrative of, "ZOMG!!! Democrats are running away from Shelley Berkley and her SCANDALS!!!!" They're having such a hard time realizing that somehow her campaign has been able to scoot past Dean Heller's manufactured "controversy" and turn the "scandalous" spotlight back onto Dean Heller and his actual record.

In particular, a handful of pundits are screaming out Berkley calling out Heller for his support of Paul Ryan's Medicare busting plan. While they're arguing over semantics, they're ignoring the fact that "Ryan-care" would indeed end the traditional Medicare system and dramatically raise health care costs for seniors if enacted.

Even a REPUBLICAN member of Congress recently admitted the truth behind Paul Ryan's spin. He even sent a flier to his constituents late last month highlighting his opposition to "Ryan-care"!

House Republicans approved a budget in April that would drive up Medicare costs for seniors, and Mitt Romney has embraced the plan crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI). But not all in the party are in agreement. Ten Republicans voted against Ryan’s budget in April, and now, Rep. David McKinley (R-WV) is campaigning on his opposition to it. [...]

The GOP plan that McKinley opposes would give seniors the option of enrolling in traditional Medicare or taking a stipend to buy their own health care policy on the private market. Republicans have argued it would slow the federal government’s rising costs for Medicare, but the Congressional Budget Office says the plan would increase seniors’ out-of-pocket costs by privatizing Medicare.

In the flier, McKinley says Congress “must balance the budget,” but not on the backs of seniors. McKinley spokesman Jim Forbes told the Los Angeles Times that the congressman “is standing for what he believes in,” but in an election cycle dominated by health care and budget issues, McKinley’s stance is out of step with the rest of his party.

And this is exactly what Shelley Berkley has been saying. Unlike the manufactured "Kidney-gate SCANDAL!!!" about nothing, Heller actually voted for "Ryan-care". And if it's really not as frightening as Berkley's ad suggests, why won't Heller run on it? Why won't he just come out and defend his BFF Paul Ryan? What could he possibly be afraid of?

So keep this in mind as you hear media pundits console Dean Heller's campaign as they whine and complain about Shelley Berkley's new ads.