10 of 12: Call It Marriage?

I quite vividly remember the morning of May 9. I was on a plane from Las Vegas to Long Beach. And jeez, while I was on the plane this news broke.

8 News NOW

And that was actually just the start.

At Southern Nevada Stonewall last night, soon to be State Senator Tick Segerblom (D-Las Vegas) made more news by announcing plans to introduce a constitutional amendment to repeal Question 2. If it's passed by the next two consecutive sessions of the Legislature, then it can go to the voters for approval in 2016. State Senator David Parks (D-Paradise) also noted that marriage equality may come to The Silver State even sooner if Lambda Legal's federal law suit challenging Question 2 succeeds. Even our US Senator, Harry Reid (D), is evolving.

It's really amazing to see how we've progressed as a country... And as a state. Just twenty years ago, an anti-sodomy law targeting LGBTQ citizens were still on the books. (It was repealed in 1993.) Just three years ago, SB 283 domestic partnerships were on the verge of becoming law. Just last year, AB 211 transgender inclusive ENDA became law. And now, Nevada is closer than ever before to fully stepping into the 21st century. Oh, the places we'll go.

And it didn't even stop there. As mentioned above, Lambda Legal filed a federal law suit (Sevcik v. Sandoval) challenging Nevada's Question 2 marriage ban. And even though the district court judge ruled against marriage, Lambda Legal already has plans to appeal. And with Prop 8 & DOMA now officially in The US Supreme Court's docket for next spring, there's now a strong chance of at least a favorable precedent being set in the nation's highest court (if The Court issues a narrow Prop 8 ruling just striking down California's marriage ban, yet nonetheless ruling in favor or equality)... And perhaps even a chance of The Supreme Court bringing marriage equality to Nevada next year (if The Court issues a broad Prop 8 ruling striking down all marriage bans).

However, not all the action will be in court. As also mentioned above, the Nevada Legislature will likely consider placing a Constitutional Amendment to repeal Question 2 & enact marriage equality on the 2016 ballot. And in the mean time, a record number of Nevada elected officials (including Congressman-elect Steven Horsford, and outgoing Assembly Speaker & NV-03 candidate John Oceguera) fully embraced both Nevada's LGBTQ community and our issues. Even the number of open LGBTQ elected officials grew as 3 new state legislators were elected... With one of them specifically defeating a sitting anti-equality Democrat in the primary.

So 2012 has been a huge year for #nveq. And already, 2013 is starting to look like another big year with major federal law suits pending and proactive, pro-marriage legislation coming to Carson City. I, for one, can't wait to see what happens next here.

Scenes from the Campaign Trail in Nevada

Today is the last day of early voting in Nevada. After today, the only day left for voting will be Tuesday. Yet while we have one more day of early voting to occur, we now have a much better sense of where things stand in this final stretch.

Just this morning, Jon Ralston posted this.

Democrats gained about 6,000 voters on the penultimate day of early voting in Clark County while Republicans won Thursday in Washoe County by about 200 votes.

It appears the Democrats, who now lead in Clark by 60,000 voters, will have somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 40,000-voter lead --perhaps slightly more -- in Nevada going into Election Day. If partsian voting patterns are predictable and if independents are, as credible polls show, relatively close, the GOP will need a huge turnout Tuesday for Mitt Romney to have any chance. And it also means that U.S. Senate race could be a nail-biter.

Turnout will be greater than what it was four years ago. In 2008, 392,427 people voted early; this year, with one day left, it's at 388,456.

Here are the totals for Clark, including mail ballots:

Democrats -- 205,878, or 47.6 percent

Republicans -- 144,745, or 33.5 percent

Others -- 81,345, or 18.9 percent

So how did this happen? Let me show you.







There has been a whole lot of canvassing. And we've especially been seeing plenty of canvassing in the Southwest part of the Las Vegas Valley. There are many Democratic voters here. But since there are so many new neighborhoods yet so few early voting sites, Nevada State Democratic Party organizers and volunteers have been working at a furious pace to turn out Democrats to vote early for President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and the local candidates.

But of course, this hasn't been all. There's also been a large contingent of volunteers coming into the office to do GOTV ("get out the vote") phone calls to reach people who possibly couldn't be reached by the canvassers. There have even been a few very special guests dropping by this week to call with the local volunteers.





Yep, both Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera stopped by Nevada Democrats' NV-03 field office in Henderson to thank volunteers. Berkley brought pizza to make sure everyone was well fueled. And Oceguera hit the phones to personally call voters along with the volunteers.

And that's not all. Yesterday, another special guest came to Southern Nevada to pump up Democrats and encourage (even more of) them to vote. Oh, and it just so happened he met us at an athletic field right next to an early voting site.







And here's an excerpt of President Obama's speech at CSN Cheyenne.



So it's been quite an exciting week. And with early voting wrapping up tonight, there's even more work to do with the final round of GOTV for Tuesday. But so far, it looks like Nevada Democrats are prepared for the home stretch. They opened well, but they also have to close well. And that starts today.

Scenes from the Campaign Trail in NV-03

Late last night, we saw another Clark County update on early voting turnout here. Countywide, Democrats now have a 17.70% turnout advantage. In NV-03, Democrats have a 4.79% turnout advantage as of last night. In the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats so far have a 22.13% turnout advantage. And in the key State Debate Districts 5, 6, 9, and 18 which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year, Democrats so far have turnout advantages of 7.99% (SD 5), 10.83% (SD 6), 8.01% (SD 9), and 1.02% (SD 18). Overall and in most parts of Clark County, Democratic turnout continues to overperform voter registration.

So how is this happening? As we discussed last Sunday, it's all about the field now. We saw this on display again yesterday when local Sierra Club volunteers knocked doors in the Green Valley (aka SD 5) neighborhoods of NV-03 with John Oceguera. Everyone took part in turning out more Democrats to vote early...







And afterward, the candidate himself joined some volunteers in making "Get Out the Vote" (GOTV) phone calls!

And that's not all. Throughout last week, the local Nevada Democratic "Super Organizer" and local volunteers also canvassed the expansive and just recently developed Southwest part of the valley (aka SD 9). Since there were not as many early voting sites in the Southwest Vegas Valley as in other parts of the valley during the first week of early voting, it was imperative to reach these neighborhoods and turn out as many Democratic voters as possible.

And yes, John Oceguera himself also stopped by last Sunday to walk here himself. He's certainly taking his campaigning seriously.







There's clearly been plenty of work done by Nevada Democrats in the past week. But in the end, they're hoping all this work will be rewarded in President Obama and Shelley Berkley winning, along with the local Congressional and Legislature candidates. And so far, it looks like Nevada Democrats are laying the groundwork for just that. We'll just have to wait and see how Week 2 of early voting continues.

NV-03: Surprise @ the KSNV Studio

Probably as I'm writing this, the final NV-03 debate may be starting to wrap up. (It will air later tonight on KSNV 3.) This time, Jon Ralston is hosting. And it's probably no holds barred.

Outside the KSNV studio near Downtown Las Vegas, this is how Joe Heck was "greeted".



A group of Nevada Democrats rallied outside the studio. I guess they just wanted to give Heck a little reminder of what's coming his way.

Perhaps this is why John Oceguera was much happier when he saw the activists.





Oceguera was quite happy to see supporters cheering him in. And actually, he may not have even known they were coming. So it turned out to be a pleasant surprise.

I guess this qualifies as one of the lighter moments on the campaign trail. Every once in a while, it's OK to let loose for a spell. And it's OK to rally outside a TV studio.

How Democrats Win: On the Ground

Last Friday, Jon Ralston wrote a column that seemed so strangely and simultaneously prescient and deja vu.

The reason Harry Reid’s pollster, Mark Mellman, nailed the result in 2010 was that he correctly forecast what the demographics of the turnout would look like – how many Hispanics, how much Clark County would be of the total, the difference between GOP and Democratic turnout. And the better pollsters know how to change their models as the campaign evolves, to adjust for whatever atmospherics require some adjustment.

One of the more obvious factors is voter registration, especially in a high-turnout, presidential year, when 80 percent or so of voters will turn out, making likely voter samples not as important as in off-years, when turnout is about 50 percent here. The other important factor often not employed by pollsters in Nevada –especially those who have not been conducting surveys in the state for very long – is history.

Both of those indicators tell me that a series of recent polls do not take into account either the surge in Democratic registration or recent history – i.e. the last two cycles.

Long story short: The vast majority of public polling of Nevada is wrong. And it's wrong precisely because these pollsters use "likely voter models" which throw out too many likely Democratic voters, such as Latinos, youth, and people who work the night shift on The Strip and can't answer most pollsters' calls.

So how is this deja vu? Well, let's step into our time machine and rewind to October 2010. In the DC Beltway, the pundits were discussing the details of Harry Reid's political funeral and the coronation of new "Tea Party Queen" and "Soon to Be Senator" Sharron Angle. But in and around the Las Vegas Beltway, those "in the know" knew better. What was key was the ground game, mainly that Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats actually had one while Angle and her "tea party" BFFs were bumbling around with their fancy phones and three-people-to-one-clipboard (No, I'm not kidding or exaggerating!) antics.

In 2010, many pundits just assumed that "TEA" fueled "momentum" would thrust Sharron Angle over the top. What they failed to notice was the phenomenal ground game built by Nevada Democrats. So while Harry Reid was giving his victory speech at Aria, local Democrats were cheering while pundits back in DC were dropping their jaws in total shock.

Fast forward to now. Once again, Nevada Democrats have been incredibly busy in the field. They've been making gains in voter registration like no one had expected just six months ago. Oh, and that's not all.







Last weekend, a group of LA County Young Democrats drove here from Southern California to help the local Nevada Democratic field office in knocking more doors and making more calls. Even more volunteers have been coming in lately because early voting will begin this Saturday. So the field organizers wanted to kick into high gear and get ready for EGOTV ("early get out the vote").

On the doors, volunteers talked to some newly registered Democrats, infrequent voters, and persuadable Nonpartisans & Republicans. So far, the Democrats have been mostly backing President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and John Oceguera, along with some Nonpartisans, while most of the rest of the Nonpartisans (and even a few of the Republicans!) seem to be keeping an open mind.





There were many volunteers grabbing clipboards and walk packets on Saturday. Yesterday, the office filled up again as a mix of the California helpers and local volunteers were making phone calls. The calls were going out to the same set of voters, and similar results were obtained. As one can see above, the "super organizers" at the Henderson field office have mastered the art of volunteer recruitment and retention.

So why does this all matter? Basically, Nevada Democrats have been expanding the electorate and "banking in" votes that most public pollsters aren't even expecting to vote. This is why most of the national and international media reports on the current state of play in Nevada diverge so wildly from what "those in the know" are actually seeing on the ground.

And especially now, more so than ever before, this work on the ground is incredibly valuable. With "tea party" aligned Super PACs dumping so much money into TV ads and "Astroturf" games, a strong field operation is critical in countering this. And so far, Nevada Democrats know exactly when and how to release their "Ace in the hole". It's really all about winning on the ground now.

NV-03: How Heck Lost His Cool (& Oceguera Got His Groove Back)

Fresh off last night's debate, John Oceguera stopped by Nevada Democrats' NV-03 field office to thank volunteers. Overall, the mood in the office was quite cheerful... Well, at least until last night's massive storm hit.









And considering what happened last night, we can see why Oceguera was so cheerful.

The most heated exchange came when Oceguera was asked about a recent television ad in which he accuses Heck of being callous toward the needs of rape victims.

[Vegas PBS' Mitch] Fox pointedly asked Oceguera if he still stood by the ad, which many political observers said crossed the line of fair play.

“Yes. I will stand by that ad, and here’s why,” said Oceguera, who indicated that his mother was a victim of domestic violence. “Congressman Heck’s record on women’s health and safety is clear. He voted to weaken the Violence Against Women Act, he voted twice to defund Planned Parenthood … It goes back to his history in the legislature where he voted to not fund domestic violence programs, rape crisis programs and vaccine to help women to be protected from cervical cancer.”

Heck shot back that Oceguera was purposefully distorting his record. [...]

The 1994 Violence Against Women Act is up for renewal this year, and competing House and Senate versions have yet to be reconciled. The House version excludes provisions that would protect immigrant victims from abusers who would use their immigration status against them, and that explicitly authorize services for gay, lesbian, transgender and bisexual victims.

Joe Heck never likes being confronted with his own record. So when asked about women's rights, all he could do was make excuses. Oh, he couldn't vote for a rape crisis program because the bill that it was a part of was loaded with "pork" (like funding for trails and historical records... And it passed on a bipartisan 17-3 vote). And he couldn't vote to expand access to the HPV/cervical cancer vaccine because it would have been like coddling "smokers who contract lung cancer". Oh, and he still can't let the bipartisan backed reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act because of "teh gayz" and "these people". Joe Heck just doesn't want to take any responsibility for his own actions.

That was pretty much the recurring theme throughout last night's NV-03 debate. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own vote to defund Head Start. Heck refused to take responsibility for his own repeated efforts to cut investment in public education. Basically, Joe Heck refused to take responsibility for anything. He was just looking for someone else to blame.

This is why he lost his cool last night... And this is why he's in more political danger than he wants to acknowledge.

NV-Sen/NV-03: Heller's & Heck's "Bad Romance"

Earlier this month, many Southern Nevadans had themselves a "fabulous gay old time" at Las Vegas Pride. Yet while many political candidates came by to court local LGBTQ voters. However, there were some notable absences. Perhaps most notably, Dean Heller and Joe Heck (and their "Team Nevada Shadow GOP") were MIA at Pride.

Hmmm, I wonder why. Could it be?

1. Heller has opposed marriage equality and even domestic partnership benefits for same-sex couples —but no longer wants to talk about it. In 2006, Heller said on his campaign website that he “supports traditional marriage between one man and one woman and will work to defend Nevada values in Congress.” This year, he reaffirmed his belief that “marriage is between one man and one woman” and said he “would not support changing that.” But, he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, “I don’t want it to be the issue in the campaign. I truly don’t want this to be the issue.” He also voted for a 2007 amendment restricting the District of Columbia government from using any federal funding to provide domestic partnership benefits.

2. Heller voted against Hate Crimes protections for LGBT Americans. In both 2007 and 2009,he voted against adding sexual orientation and gender identity to the federal hate crimes laws.

3. Heller thinks it should be legal to fire someone just for being gay. He voted against the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in 2007, which would have banned employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

4. Heller opposed letting LGBT servicemembers serve openly. He voted against Don’t Ask Don’t Tell repeal twice in 2010. In 2009 he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal he supported continuing the discriminatory policy.

5. Heller has been a total zero on LGBT equality. Over the course of the 110th and 111th Congresses, the Human Rights Campaign rated him as voting against the interests of the LGBT community 100 percent of the time.

Notice Heller's downright flippant attitude toward Nevada's LGBTQ families.



Now contrast this with Shelley Berkley and her steadfast commitment to securing equality for all Nevada families.





As we've discussed before, Mitt Romney is leading Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and the rest of the G-O-TEA in embracing teabaggers' bigotry and doubling down on endorsing wrongful discrimination. They're doing this because they still think they need to shore up their "TEA" fueled base. Yet while they're doing this, they're alienating the rest of our increasingly diverse and multicultural state. And with the newest CBS/New York Times poll showing a strong national majority favoring marriage equality, it's quite likely that Nevada voters are trending quickly towards embracing equality as well.

Joe Heck may still be calling marriage equality "a distraction" while he & Dean Heller dutifully stand by the G-O-TEA agenda of belittling and even endangering (!!!) LGBTQ Nevadans, but they increasingly look anachronistic and incredibly out of touch. Just contrast Heck's cold and downright rude remarks with John Oceguera's heartfelt support for marriage equality and full civil rights for LGBTQ Nevadans.



This is a bigger problem for Nevada Republicans than Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and their slick campaign consultants want to admit. And this is the real reason why Heller and Heck refuse to talk about it. But as long as they keep trying to hold down Nevada's LGBTQ families, a growing and strengthening number of Nevada voters may ultimately decide to just hang up on them.

NV-03: "Newspaper" Strikes Again!

Early this week, a local Southern Nevada "newspaper" embarrassed itself (again) with poorly reasoned endorsements. Today, the "newspaper" is out to embarrass itself some more. Oh yes, that's right. It's time for a new round of "polls" that make absolutely no sense!

In today's edition, the "newspaper" teamed up with the incredibly shoddy Survey USA to release this new "poll" showing Joe Heck leading by 13%. So why shouldn't we just take them at their word? Here's what Ralston tweeted.

"Newspaper" poll has @RepJoeHeck up by 13 over @JohnOceguera. Wow! Also wow: Dems have slight reg edge in #nv03; poll breakdown: 37-32, R.

And there's this.

Link to "newspaper" poll in #nv03 -- http://t.co/K86u6WHy. But look at goofy demographics here: http://t.co/OymyxoCW #2010redux #surveyUSA

Indeed, Survey USA's internals make absolutely no sense. The sample skews much older than the likely electorate we'll see this fall, and Joe Heck probably isn't winning that many minority voters. No really, they know what's going on. Oh, and since Democrats recently took the lead in voter registration in NV-03, it makes no sense to show 5% more Republicans in the sample.

So why did this happen? Well, when a "newspaper" becomes accustomed to accepting sloppy "reporting", this is the result. Believe it or not, its polls were actually starting to make sense when it teamed up with UNLV's polling institute. It's a shame that the "newspaper" actually dumped a solid local outfit for this garbage.

NV-03: The Women... & The Enthusiasm

Of course last night, President Obama addressed a crowd of 8,000 at Cashman Center in Las Vegas. While there was a need to change the schedule, the event went on and tons of Democrats emerged enthusiastic.

Meanwhile across the valley in Henderson, a more low key affair was happening. At the increasingly famous Nevada State Democratic Party Henderson office, organizers were hosting a "Women to Women" phone bank for John Oceguera here in NV-03.







As you can see above, the office was packed with enthusiastic Democratic women (and a few men, too). So what was thus about? Let me explain.

Today is the the 18th Anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act. Just over six months ago, Rush Limbaugh fired the first shot in the G-O-TEA War on Women. And last week, we were all reminded of how much Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, and their acolytes have escalated the War on Women. This is what Nevada women have had to endure this year.

And all along the way, Joe Heck has led the way in fighting the G-O-TEA War on Women. Instead of working on actual policies to encourage more job creation, he's been fighting these "culture wars" and catering to his "tea party" base. And not surprisingly, Southern Nevada women are getting fed up with his actions.



Last week in Charlotte, President Obama and his fellow Democrats took the unprecedented step of fully affirming their support for full women's equality. Even before the convention, John Oceguera was noting how he'd drop the "culture war" nonsense and instead work on policies to help Nevada's working women. And in such an important election featuring such a stark choice on matters important to working women, this is the message that Democrats have to keep delivering.

This is why so many women made it to the Henderson phone bank last night. And this is why Joe Heck is more politically vulnerable than he wants to admit. And this is why Democratic women in NV-03 are more enthusiastic about this election than many pundits want to admit.

NV-03: Your Budget, Your Values

So DC's local gossip rag caught Joe Heck's new ad. Supposedly, this his big move to "get ahead of likely attacks on Social Security and Medicare". At first, that sounds all fine and dandy.

However, there's a catch. Joe Heck's words don't really match his actions. Remember this?



And remember this?

Paul Ryan's budget dumps another $187,000 tax cut on the lap of every multi-millionaire and billionaire. Yet while the ultra-wealthy are getting another "bailout", the working poor suffer as 62% of Ryan's proposed budget cuts hit programs like Medicaid and Pell Grants that are meant to lift Americans out of poverty. Oh, and let's not forget the centerpiece of Paul Ryan's budget, which is his "RyanCare" plan to end Medicare as we know it and force seniors to pay up to $5,900 more for health care. Even retired military officers have come out against Paul Ryan's budget because of his proposed cuts to international programs meant to keep America safe. [...]

If even Paul Ryan's own constituents can't stand what he's trying to do to our country, what makes Joe Heck think he can get away with this here in Nevada? Between his own "Destroying America's Trust in Our Economy Act" and his constant votes for Paul Ryan's dangerous austerity agenda, Heck is sending us the message that he cares more about pleasing Paul Ryan and the rest of the House G-O-TEA leadership than doing what's right for Nevada's working families. All Heck is doing is proving Mr. Gleaner's point that he's nothing more than a G-O-TEA tool.

So yes, this is something to remember when Joe Heck talks about Medicare. However, it doesn't actually end there. In addition to their shared goal of privatizing and "voucher-izing" Medicare, Joe Heck and Paul Ryan share an overall desire to rip to shreds the very social safety net that has made America's great middle class, as well as our economy built upon that foundation, possible.

Remember when Joe Heck actually jumped to the right of even Paul Ryan by introducing his "Destroying America's Trust in Our Economy Act"?

Nowhere in Heck's "Restoring America's Faith and Trust Act" does it address the Bush tax rates, war spending, or economic health. Instead, Heck wants to slash federal investment in our people to 2006 levels and fire more public sector workers! Even though we have more miltary veterans in need of VA care, college students in need of Pell Grants, working poor families in need of Medicaid and food stamps, retirees in need of Medicare and Social Security, and unemployed workers in need of unemployment insurance, Heck refuses to acqknowledge this reality and instead has introduced this bill that would plunge our economy into double-dip recession if enacted!

If we were to slash all these programs and more, we would all pay the price of further suffering. Without unemployment insurance, those without work can't survive. Same goes for seniors on Medicare, working poor families on food stamps and Medicaid, students with Pell Grants, and veterans using VA assistance. If they can't even buy food and basic supplies, let alone purchase anything else, our economy would take a massive hit. Oh, and in the longer term the budget deficit would only worsen as tax revenue plunges because of even more people losing their jobs.

Remember all of this when Joe Heck declares his love for public education, military veterans, Social Security & Medicare, or pretty much anything else that requires some kind of public investment. Remember that in the end, one values what one pays for and one's values can be revealed in how one budgets. So when we look at Joe Heck's record on setting and influencing the federal budget, we see that he doesn't actually value that middle class foundation of America's economy as much as he claims to in his ads.

Also remember to contrast Joe Heck's empty rhetoric with what John Oceguera has said and done about that middle class foundation. Here's what he told the audience at the Henderson Democratic Club last night about how he demonstrates his values.





It's one thing to pay for glitzy TV ads that show happy looking seniors, smiling students, and gauzy rhetoric about "protecting the middle class". It's another to actually match one's rhetoric with one's record. And so far, Joe Heck has failed to do that. Without Medicare, Social Security, Pell Grants, unemployment insurance, SCHIP (children's health care), and so much more of the American social safety net, America's middle class couldn't exist.

Without Medicare & Social Security, many seniors would be thrown into dire poverty. Without Pell Grants and low cost federally backed student loans, many young Americans would be forced to relinquish their dreams of finishing college and embarking on a brighter economic future. And again, without the social safety net that makes America's middle class possible, we wouldn't have a middle class and we wouldn't have any hope for a stronger economy. If Joe Heck really valued that, he'd reflect those values in his (bills targeting the federal) budget.

How the West Will Be Won: All About NV-03

Last week, we discussed the the stark contrast in focus between the parties here in Nevada. Long story short: While Republican operatives have been focusing more on spinning the media, Democrats have had a laser like focus on field organizing. Today, I wanted us to go in depth some more and explore the heart of Nevada Democrats' field efforts. And as we start our series on "How The West Will Be Won" this fall, I figured there's no better way to start than by examining the field campaign in what may be the most critical Congressional race in the country.

Last Saturday, the Nevada State Democratic Party packed its NV-03 field office with volunteers for a weekend phone bank. In addition to the crew of volunteers, NV-03 Democratic nominee John Oceguera came by to greet them and thank them for all their work in winning the election... And not just for him.







Believe it or not, my home Congressional District will play a huge role in determining the fate of President Obama's second term. For one, this is a district that Obama himself must win in order to win Nevada and our 6 Electoral Votes this fall. And since NV-03 is typically such a bellwether of a swing district, this is also an area where Shelley Berkley must win in order to win the US Senate election here. And since President Obama urgently needs more Democratic allies in Congress next year in order to actually have a Congress that's willing to work for the nation's best interest, he urgently needs for Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera to win alongside him here in Nevada.

So why is NV-03 so important? Basically, we're a unique mix of older (for Nevada, at least) suburbs that have been aging gracefully and newer suburbs that came into existence during the height of the 2000's "Real Estate Bubble". The older suburbs, like Green Valley and the original neighborhoods of Summerlin, were once considered Republican strongholds. But over time, they've become more politically balanced while the newer Southwest Valley suburbs were incredibly diverse from the get-go. Really, NV-03 is the vanguard when it comes to demographic changes here in Nevada. That's why it's become such a critical bellwether.

So the stakes are incredibly high here in The Silver State as we approach autumn. And that's why Nevada Democrats are kicking their "field machine" into high gear. At Saturday's phone bank, at least 1,000 dials were made by the time John Oceguera arrived. And while the volunteers were making dials, the canvass department was recruiting more people to work the field and knock doors.

Every once in a while, there's discussion on the accuracy of most public polling of Nevada. Let me explain why this dilemma has emerged in the last 3 election cycles (2008, 2010, and now 2012). Since 2005, Nevada Democrats have been investing in growing a strong field operation. While activities like voter registration outside the neighborhood DMV and spending a lovely Saturday afternoon making political phone calls don't always seem "sexy", they're incredibly effective when it comes to winning elections. And as Democrats register new voters, re-register voters who have moved since 2008, call them to remind them of the upcoming election, then knock on their doors to make sure they vote, Nevada Democrats are "expanding the electorate" beyond the confines of what most national pollsters and media pundits expect. This is exactly how Harry Reid defied the (national media's pre-set) odds and won reelection in 2010, and this is what Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera are counting on now.

Yet while all of this is happening, Nevada Republicans continue to surround themselves with chaos. On one end, Mitt Romney continues to explain his "bromance" with Paul Ryan... And cause headaches for Republican Congressional campaigns here in Nevada and elsewhere. Meanwhile, the actual Nevada Republican Party continues its slow-motion implosion as it continues to debate the burning issue of... Ron Paul. And with even "The Shadow GOP" caught in an ugly "Bus Wreck", even some Republican insiders have wondered if they can put together a field operation in time to salvage Dean Heller and Joe Heck this fall.

Again, this election will most likely be won or lost in the field. And again, NV-03 may very well be THE key swing district for both the state and the country. So field really does matter here. And in the end, Nevada Democrats' field operation may be that one "X Factor" that manages to make the difference in determining the balance of power in Washington (DC) next year.

NV-03/NV-Sen: While GOP Spin Media, They're Still Falling Behind

This was the scene last November as Nevadans were finally tiring of the "tea party" appeasing antics of Dean Heller and Joe Heck. For the past 18 months, both have been busy nurturing their relationship with the "TEA" tinged ones while occasionally smearing Vaseline on the camera to obscure what this means for Nevada's working families. Many have wondered how they can be defeated.

Today, we (again) have the answer in plain sight. Just don't listen to certain national media pundits telling you to ignore it.





This was the scene in the middle of last month at the Nevada State Democratic Party (NSDP) NV-03 field office in Henderson. Ever since the office opened in June, the party's coordinated campaign (helping Shelley Berkley in the US Senate race, John Oceguera in the US House race, President Obama, and Democratic Legislature candidates) has been working the field at a furious pace. Add to that all the field work Obama's own campaign has been doing since last fall, and we have a recipe for Democratic success in Nevada this fall.





This was the scene the day after our "field day" at the NSDP office. Oh yes, that's right. We need to reexamine the infamous "Tea Party, Inc." Bus Wreck. Remember that the Koch funded AFP "charitable foundation" is supposed to be part of the "Shadow GOP" that's supposed to help Joe Heck, Dean Heller, and Mitt Romney win by sidestepping the "Real Nevada Republican Party" that's now run by Ron Paul acolytes. So really, there's no comparison between Nevada Democrats' "well oiled machine" and Nevada Republicans' greasy chaos.

This was the big news yesterday. After three months of constantly chipping away at Republicans' already meager voter registration advantage, it finally came tumbling down this week as Democrats' regained the edge in the newly configured suburban Las Vegas/Henderson seat. For all the talk of how "strong" Joe Heck appeared and how "well" Mitt Romney seemed to be doing in the constantly swingy Clark County suburbs, Republicans just couldn't hold onto that tiny advantage they had (briefly "gained" thanks to so many Nevada voters being declared "inactive" by the Clark County Election Department early this year). And since NV-03 also happens to be the key region where statewide elections are won or lost, this is big news for President Obama and Shelley Berkley as well.

When thinking of how to win a campaign, I always think of these two words: Field matters. It can very well make the difference between winning and losing. And while it can't always make up for deficiencies in other areas, it can do what many millions of dollars worth of glitzy TV ads can't do in cultivating supporters and turning them out come election time.

So why do we keep hearing from the national media about how "confident" Nevada Republicans are? Basically, one thing that the G-O-TEA consultants are good at is spinning the media. That's why they're able to show their clients looking so "confident". But when we look beneath the surface, we see a completely different picture.

So remember this next time the political "armchair quarterbacks" on the cable networks and DC gossip rags talk about who's supposedly winning the fight for Congress and The White House. As we're seeing in Nevada, what matters more is what's happening on the field and away from the spin room.

NV-03: Oceguera Hits the Airwaves... & Uses a Familiar Message

It's official now. The race for Nevada's swingiest of swing districts is on. Joe Heck was apparently already planning to go on air, but today John Oceguera is launching his first ad.



As you can see above, Oceguera talks quite a bit about the fate of the middle class. And as we've talked about before, the fate of this election may ultimately rest on how strongly Americans want to save it. So it's interesting to see Democratic candidates like Oceguera tap that anger and channel it into a message of saving the middle class.

We've already seen what Joe Heck thinks of Nevada's middle class. Long story short, he just doesn't care. He's regularly ignored his own (middle class) constituents so he can focus on pleasing his dirty 1% BFFs.

Just as we figured, this election will be decided by working class Nevadans because they don't want to see the middle class disappear. John Oceguera may really be onto something here.

Obama's Ace in the Hole

In case you haven't yet heard, Nevada Democrats made big gains again in voter registration last month. Democrats now have a 41.13% to 36.70% advantage over Republicans statewide. And not only have Democrats gained statewide, but in key swing areas as well. Republicans' registration advantage in NV-03 has almost entirely vanished, and Democrats' registration advantage in the new NV-04 district is back over 10%.

So how are Nevada Democrats doing this? Take a look below.





OFA Nevada and the Nevada State Democratic Party have been doing voter registration since the spring. Last Friday, I wanted to see what was happening for myself, so I went to the epicenter of all the local voter registration action: the Henderson DMV.

As people were streaming in and out, 5 Democrats (2 OFA, 3 NVDems) were outside, holding clipboards, and registering anyone who wanted to. Meanwhile, there were 3 Republicans (From the real Nevada G-O-TEA? Or "The Shadow Party?) conducting a "survey"... And using that to determine who to register to vote. Basically, people who sounded anti-Obama were chased into the parking lot while people who sounded pro-Obama were tossed aside.

While the Democrats kept asking everyone and stood ready & available for anyone who needed to register or change address, DMV customers were complaining to DMV staff about the Republicans' behavior. Pretty soon, security guards were asking the Republicans to stop the annoying "survey" and stop chasing people into the parking lot. And in case there wasn't enough drama there, the Republicans' supervisor soon arrived in a full suit and proceeded to tell his staff NOT to pay attention to what the security guards are saying!

And while all that drama was unfolding, the folks from the Nevada State Democratic Party continued with voter registration. Now, everyone is just hoping that the G-O-TEA's bad behavior won't force everyone out of the DMV for good.

But wait, there's more! On a lighter note, OFA also celebrated President Obama's birthday on Saturday. In addition to doing that round of voter registration on Friday, local volunteer leader Linda hosted a birthday party for Mr. President the following evening! Here's a glimpse of what happened.







While everyone was having fun there, some important work was also being done. Volunteers were being recruited for future voter registration shifts and phone banks. Local OFA organizer Alison was explaining to the group why they will soon need volunteers to canvass the neighborhood. And Linda reminded them why they were all there.

And in case that wasn't enough, Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Roberta Lange and NV-03 Democratic nominee John Oceguera stopped by to remind everyone that there's even more at stake this fall. President Obama will surely need more allies in Congress next year, so electing Oceguera & Shelley Berkley (who's running for US Senate) will be just as critical as Obama's own final score in Nevada. Really, the entire balance of power in Washington may ultimately be determined by my neighborhood 8 miles southeast of the Las Vegas Strip.

This is why Nevada Democrats have been working the field so hard. They're now starting to reap the rewards. And if they keep at this pace, Nevada may end up Bluer than ever before... And Mitt Romney will really be screwed here, and Dean Heller & Joe Heck will be dragged down with Romney.

And ultimately, all of this may be determined by how many more Democrats are registered to vote at the Henderson DMV, as well as how many doors are knocked & how many phone calls are made in the next month. Yep, Nevada Democrats' field operation may prove to be President Obama's "Ace in the Hole" here.

NV-Sen/NV-03: Why Field Matters

You know what? We're quite fortunate to live in a swing state. We have a front row seat to the kind of campaigning that most Americans actually aren't seeing. It's quite exciting, really.

Well, maybe it's not that exciting for Nevada Republicans and "Tea Party, Inc." Their own poll shows bad news for them as the AFP "tea Party" bus is about to land in Las Vegas tomorrow. And even worse for them, Nevada Democrats are cranking up the field machine.

Here, take a look for yourself. While "tea partiers" were busy partying on their Koch funded tour bus, Nevada Democrats were busy working at their Henderson field office.







As we've discussed before, the Democratic field operation has been humming along nicely this year. Yet while Democrats have been registering new voters and persuading current voters, Nevada Republicans are busy getting a divorce. The big G-O-TEA poobahs know this, and that's why they're desperate to find another way to get an advantage.

That's why Dean Heller has to find ways to smear his opposition. That's why Joe Heck has really been in the hot seat lately. And that's why Mitt Romney is so worried about Nevada.

It's bad enough that they're such flawed candidates who have trouble even exciting their own G-O-TEA base. It's even worse that they don't have good records to run on. And now, what really frightens them is that they don't actually have the troops on the ground necessary to win.

Any good campaign consultant will stress the importance of field. That's why Nevada Democrats have invested so much in it. And that's why they're always busy recruiting more volunteers to go to the office. And that's why those volunteers get busy making calls as soon as they walk in. Field matters. And even with "Tea Party, Inc." spending so many millions of dollars on slimy TV ads, they still can't win if they're getting out-worked in the field. That's "the dirty little secret" of campaigning that's often forgotten, especially by many in the media.

We've already received quite a bit of attention from the national media lately. They're trying to figure out what "the state of the race" looks like here in Nevada. If they really want to figure it out, then all they need to do is look at the field.

Yes, I Did the Damboree This Year.

After enjoying a brief hiatus last year, I again did the Boulder City Damboree Parade this year. This time, Nevada Democrats were walking with Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera. As you can see below, the crowd was pretty friendly and the candidates were happy to work the crowd.





It's always a treat to stop by charming Boulder City. It's even better when the locals are happy to accept visitors. And from what I saw earlier today, Nevada Democratic volunteers received a warm reception.

Shelley Berkley had a float in the front of the parade, just behind Joe Heck and in front of Melissa Wordbury. It was an interesting placement. But all in all, Shelley got at least as many cheers as Heck. And the kids were taking the candy that was being passed out!

Further behind were the Boulder City Democrats and John Oceguera. The locals were also smiling as they were going by. Again, the crowd seemed quite polite this year. Everyone was just enjoying the show.







Unfortunately I couldn't stay for "the water works" this year, so I don't know how that went. But all in all, there's really no better way to celebrate America's birthday than do so with good friends in a true Nevada treasure.

Happy Fourth, everyone!