Monday, October 8, 2012

Why Nevada WILL Remain a Blue State This Fall

So we now have a better sense of what the final voter registration totals will be. While we must wait a few more days for the final official statewide report, the Clark County (Metro Las Vegas) numbers point to a very strong finish for Nevada Democrats, which guarantees an 80,000+ raw vote Democratic advantage statewide. Just in the last week, Democrats expanded their registration advantage in Clark County from 109,305 voters (or 13.67%) to a whopping 119,314 voters (or 14.32%) just in the last week! And considering Nevada Democrats had a statewide lead of 71,561 (or 6.03%) voters last Tuesday, this kind of gain in the state's most populous county puts Democrats right where they want to be to hit the magic 80,000 marker.

So how have they been making this happen? Let me explain.

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See the above photos? This was the scene at the Cowboy Barbeque in Old Town Henderson. Typically, one wouldn't expect multitudes of Democrats to register to vote here. However, Nevada is not some "typical state" and this was no typical event. Between the Nevada State Democratic Party (NV-Sen/NV-03) Coordinated Campaign volunteers and local Obama campaign volunteers, there was no corner of the event left uncovered. And believe it or not, people kept popping up to register to vote... With the bulk of them being Democrats!

And that wasn't even the start or the end of it. For 36 hours, Democratic organizers and volunteers were pounding the pavement everywhere from DMV offices to shopping malls to parks to big events like the local Renaissance Faire (no, really!) to register more voters. And in the end, all of this hard work looks to be paying off... In a very BIG way!

So what is the result of all this relentless hard work? Take a look at the key swing districts. In the Southern Vegas Valley based NV-03 swing district, Democrats expanded their registration edge from 3,402 raw votes (or 1.08%) to 5,483 (or 1.66%). In the Clark County portion of the other key swing Congressional seat that's the new Northern Vegas Valley based NV-04, Democrats expanded their advantage from 40,557 raw votes (or 16.15%) to 44,252 (or 16.90%). And remember that these are important races that will determine control of Congress next January, so gains here help on multiple levels.

But wait, there's more! Democrats also made even more big gains in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' edge grew from 4.51% to 4.97% in just the last week. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage grew further from 5.83% to 6.67%. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew some more in the last week from 6.95% to 7.64%. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans' edge was almost entirely wiped out in just one week, falling from 1.60% to an infintesimal 0.01%! And remember, Democrats only need to win two of these four seats (or one of these seats and the Washoe County based SD 15) to keep the State Senate.

All in all, Democrats rocked the final week of "anywhere, anytime" voter registration. (Only in person registration at county offices will be allowed until the 16th.) Oh, and Nevada pundit/political insider extraordinaire Jon Ralston just tweeted this.

For those keeping score at home, the statewide lead for Dems over Republicans in NV has crossed 80K barrier. This is very bad news for GOP.

As I've been saying all along, field matters. And because Nevada Democrats have been working the field like no one else can, President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford stand to gain like no one had expected just six months ago.

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