Showing posts with label Judge Russell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Judge Russell. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

10 of 11: Redistricting!

This is probably the quirkiest and funniest story of 2011. At the start of the year, everyone was wondering what kind of deal would be made to please most incumbents and share the treasures of Congressional gerrymandering. Honestly, that's what I was thinking when I released my first scenario for changing Nevada's Congressional map. I mean, come on... Nevada's Legislature had always been able to agree to a bipartisan gerrymander that kept most happy. Couldn't they do it again?

By April, the answer was starting to sound like one big fat "NO!" And as spring sprang and the budget brawl was becoming increasingly brutal, Nevada's pundit class was finally starting to realize that a huge "game change" was in the works. And despite the Legislature brokering a budget deal in late May (once the state Supreme Court forced it), a compromise gerrymander was looking increasingly impossible. And once sine die was reached in early June, the legal fight officially became a battle royale... And I noted that it wasn't exactly a bad thing.

Maybe this really isn't a bad thing? After all, the current districts we have are a result of a bipartisan "incumbent protection" gerrymander. Perhaps now that judges will decide the new district boundaries rather than politicians looking to protect their own behinds and/or use redistricting as a bargaining chip for something else, we'll see Congressional and legislative districts that actually make more sense. Here's to hope!

In August, redistricting took a weird turn when Judge James Todd Russell appointed "special masters" to handle the map drawing... And decide all the legal issues that he was supposed to rule on! By October, Secretary of State Ross Miller rushed to the Nevada Supreme Court to beg our state's highest court to end what seemed to be turning into a fiasco. By then, most of our state's politicos were begging Governor Sandoval and the legislators to try one more time to agree on some sort of redistricting compromise. Jon Ralston most notably asked the Gube and the Leg to "make them (Judge Russell and the "special masters") irrelevant", but I wasn't ready to give up on our new bold experiment just yet.

So is independent redistricting perfect? Nope, just look at what's happening next door. But by the same token, we can also look next door and see an overall better functioning process that gives voters more control than the usual powers that be. And that would be quite the "special" departure from the usual politics that surrounds redistricting here in Nevada.

I honestly don't know if the current judiciary mess or retrying the Legislature is the better path to take for this current round of redistricting here. But moving forward, we really need to reexamine our State Constitution (which currently requires the Legislature to redraw its own districts and Congressional Districts) and ask if we really want to endure this kind of nonsense ten years from now.

I noted that despite many legal and political hiccups, both Arizona and California ultimately ended up with fairer and more logical Congressional and Legislature maps. Maybe if we just let this process work, Nevada could also be as lucky?

Oh, we certainly ended up so! The new maps were released in mid October, and the new state of play suddenly sent a whole lot of politicians scrambling. And in addition to Congress, the Legislature also saw a huge overhaul as both Assembly and Senate districts shifted southward.

Of course, this made the Nevada GOP furious. Funny enough, they were originally pushing for court drawn maps in the hope of the redistricting law suit landing on the lap of a Republican friendly judge. And of course, they got that! However, they still threw a temper tantrum once the new maps emerged. Why? Oh, it wasn't a gerrymander... And all of a sudden, they were forced to acknowledge the shift of the balance of power from rural white Republicans to multicultural and multi-ethnic urban and suburban Democrats.

Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is [Assembly Member Pete] Goicoechea [R-Eureka] really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year. [...]

So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.

For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.

This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes are changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.

In the end, only minor changes were made to the Legislature maps and the Nevada Supremes ultimately green-lighted the new maps this past fall. So in addition to the wide open Legislature races, we now have a red hot (even if deep blue) Democratic primary in NV-01, a real barnburner of a general election coming to Joe Heck in NV-03, and Barbara Cegavske's increasingly comical delusions of grandeur in NV-04. And who knows, maybe at some point NV-02 will join in on the fun and games next year as well.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Redistricting Update: NV-0X No More... & NVLeg Almost Settled

Southern Nevada’s plethora of Democratic congressional candidates no longer have an excuse to delay announcing which district they will run for next year.

Carson District Judge James T. Russell today approved new district maps drawn by his three court masters after weeks of public hearings and number crunching.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats voiced an objection to the maps that reject the GOP argument that Hispanic voters were entitled to a majority-minority district under the Voting Rights Act.

Nice to see that's settled... But it's not all over yet.

Lawyers for both Republicans and Democrats said they need to review changes that Russell made to the Senate districts drawn by the masters before deciding whether to appeal to the Nevada Supreme Court.

Republicans had objected to the way the masters drew the Senate districts, arguing they gave an unfair advantage to Democrats in three Southern Nevada districts.

Russell rejected that argument, but said state Sen. Barbara Cegavaske’s district was too irregularly shaped to comply with the law. His changes had little impact on the partisan registration of the three districts Republicans objected to.

Well, SD 8 under the original map did look weird. As long as no one tries to manipulate this process to gerrymander for the Republicans, we should be OK. Perhaps since Judge Russell has already come under fire for rigging the NV-02 special election earlier this year, he'll mind his manners now. It seems like Russell is only making minor changes with the Summerlin area Senate Districts, so hopefully the Nevada Supremes can sort it all out in a fair manner.

But in the mean time, it's good to know the maps are starting to be set in stone now. It's time for the Nevada GOP to give up its fantasies of total gerrymander.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Assembly

Last week, we had a chance to see what's at stake under the new Senate map proposed by Judge Russell's special masters. Now, it's the Assembly's turn as we examine how the political state of play changes there.

This morning, we discussed why rural Republicans in particular are screaming bloody murder over this map. Long story short, they lose more power. And while we saw them fume mostly over the Senate map, the Assembly map doesn't look all that great for them either.

Safe Republican Seats:

AD 23 (Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury)

AD 32 (Incumbent: Ira Hansen)

AD 33 (Incumbent: John Ellison)

AD 36 (Incumbent: Ed Goedhart)

AD 38 (Incumbent: Tom Grady)

AD 39 (Incumbent: Kelly Kite)

AD 40 (Incumbent: Pete Livermore)

Safe Democratic Seats:

AD 1 (Incumbent: Marilyn Kirkpatrick)

AD 3 (Incumbent: Peggy Pierce)

AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop)

AD 6 (Incumbent: Harvey Munford)

AD 7 (Incumbent: Dina Neal)

AD 8 (Incumbent: Jason Frierson)

AD 10 (Incumbent: Joe Hogan)

AD 11 (Incumbent: Olivia Diaz)

AD 14 (Incumbent: Maggie Carlton)

AD 15 (Incumbent: Elliot Anderson)

AD 16 (Open)

AD 17 (Incumbent: Kelvin Atkinson)

AD 18 (Incumbent: Richard Carrillo)

AD 20 (Open)

AD 24 (Incumbent: David Bobzien)

AD 27 (Incumbent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson)

AD 28 (Incumbent: Lucy Flores)

AD 30 (Incumbent: Debbie Smith)

AD 42 (Incumbent: Irene Bustamante Adams)

As you can see above, Democrats already start off with an overwhelming 19-7 advantage in safe seats! Democrats only need to win 3 of the below competitive districts to keep the majority, 7 seats to maintain their current 26-16 advantage, or 9 seats to get back to the 28-14 veto proof supermajority they briefly enjoyed in 2009.

So how can Republicans stop them? It's no easy task, as we're about to see below.

Clark County

AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
53% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
49% Harry Reid (D)
47% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
56% Brian Sandoval (R)
41% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 4 (Incumbent: Richard McArthur-R)
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 9 (Open)
Las Vegas-Northwest/Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 12 (Incumbent: James Ohrenschall-D)
Sunrise Manor, East Las Vegas, Henderson-Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 13 (Incumbent: Scott Hammond-R)
Las Vegas-Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 19 (Incumbents: Crescent Hardy-R and Steven Brooks-D)
Mesquite, Sunrise Manor, Henderson-Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Sherwood-R)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 22 (Incumbent: Lynn Stewart-R)
Henderson-Green Valley Ranch/MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 29 (Incumbent: April Mastroluca-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 35 (Open)
Southwest Vegas/Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 41 (Incumbent: Paul Aizley-D)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Washoe County

AD 25 (Incumbent: Pat Hickey-R)
Reno-West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 26 (Incumbent: Randy Kirner-R)
Hidden Valley, Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 31 (Incumbent: Skip Daly-D)
Sparks-Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

So here I count 5 Lean (R) districts, 6 Tossup districts, and 5 Lean (D) districts. When the leaners are included, Democrats have a 24-12 advantage... Oh wait, that makes a majority! No wonder why Republicans are pissed. They have to win all their safe seats, all their leaners, all the tossups, AND steal at least 4 of the 5 Dem leaning seats to get a majority!

Now to be fair, not everything is coming up roses for the Dems, either. While their path to majority is incredibly easy here, their path back to 2/3 supermajority gets a little tougher. All of their safe seats and all of their leaners only amount to 24 total seats, so they have to win at least 4 of the 6 tossup seats to reach the magic number 28... And at least 3 of those will be incumbent Democrats facing tougher districts with some unfamiliar new constituents (April Mastroluca and Marcus Conklin down south, Skip Daly up north), while incumbent Democrat Steven Brooks and incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy may be forced into battle royale against each other in the new AD 19 where both of them apparently live.

But all in all, Republicans seem to have more to lose under this map, so we can better understand why they're fighting like hell to stop this map from becoming the law of the land.

It's the Population

Surprise, surprise, the new Legislature maps are being challenged. Of course, the Republicans are whining because the proposed maps don't gerrymander the GOP back into power. Yet among those Republicans, there are some former and current legislators throwing a fit for another (albeit just as ridiculous) reason.

Rural lawmakers expressed dismay Tuesday with the latest redistricting maps that would add a big chunk of northern Clark County to the rural state Senate District 19.

While Washoe County would likely be represented by four state senators, the same number it currently has, rural Nevada would go from three representatives to two if not one.

“It dilutes the ‘cow counties,’ ” said Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka. (He’s a rancher, and therefore allowed to use the sometimes-pejorative vernacular for the state’s less-populated counties.)

“The rurals are entitled to be represented like any other minority.”

Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is Goicoechea really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year.



[Face palm]

Eureka County objected to the Senate maps. Former Elko Assemblyman John Carpenter, who served 24 years in the Legislature, also lodged the same complaint, saying Elko County would also include parts of Clark County including west of North Las Vegas and Mount Charleston.

Carpenter said, “My greatest fear is that someday the northern rural counties, the cow counties, would be represented by a senator from Southern Nevada.”

Oh, lordy. Oh yes, it's such an "injustice" to lump Elko and Ely into the same district as Indian Springs and Moapa! Oh, the horrors! (I'm obviously being sarcastic here, since the part of Clark County included in the new SD 19 is sparsely populated. None of North Las Vegas and very little of the City of Las Vegas [just Providence and Kyle Canyon] even touch it.)

So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.

For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.

This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes our changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.

To paraphrase James Carville's famous 1992 statement, "It's the population, stupid." And though rural legislators have long been able to maintain power in Carson City despite the rise of Vegas, time may soon be running out for them.







Saturday, October 15, 2011

More on Court's Proposed Congressional Districts


(Image courtesy of Las Vegas Sun)

So I played with the numbers last night to get a better sense of the political state of play in redistricting. Now that Judge Russell and his special masters have given us districts, we can get a better sense of who will end up with what. Here are my rough estimates of the partisan makeup of each district after drawing each one as close to reality as possible on Dave's Redistricting App:

NV-01 (Urban Las Vegas):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 42%

Democrats who live here- Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen

Republican who lives here- Barbara Cegavske

Race Rating- Safe Democratic

NV-02 (Reno-Carson/Northern Nevada):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Democrats who live here- Kate Marshall, Jill Derby, Jessica Sferrazza

Republicans who live here- Mark Amodei, Sharron Angle

Race Rating- Leans Republican

NV-03 (Henderson, Southwest Vegas, & South Clark County):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Democrat who lives here- John Oceguera

Republicans who live here- Joe Heck, Elizabeth Halseth

Race Rating- Tossup

NV-04 (North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Northwest Vegas, & Central Nevada)

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Democrats who live here- Steven Horsford, John Lee, Larry Brown

Republicans who live here- Ed Goedhart, Shari Buck

Race Rating- Leans Democratic

So this is what we have so far: one solidly safe Democratic seat, one Democratic leaning seat, one tossup seat, and one Republican leaning seat. As it stands now, Nevada Democrats likely have at least two seats (NV-01 and NV-04) firmly in their pocket while Republicans have a good leg up in one seat (NV-02). NV-03 will probably be the barnburner that both sides will have to fiercely contest again.



Friday, October 14, 2011

First Thoughts on Court's First Draft Redistricting Maps

Earlier this afternoon, we caught a first glimpse at Judge Russell's panel's first draft of redistricting maps.

Incumbent Rep. Joe Heck’s congressional seat would have more Democrats than Republicans and one central Las Vegas congressional district would be almost 43 percent Hispanic, according to maps released by the Nevada District Court today.

The masters decided against drawing a district with a majority of Hispanic voters, as Republicans wanted.

“The Special Masters concluded that bloc voting by the white majority was not shown to usually defeat a minority’s preferred candidate,” they wrote.

The three “special masters” appointed by Judge Todd Russell drew the maps after holding hearings and taking public testimony this week.

So here's what we know so far about the new districts (demographic info here, Clark County closeup here) :

- NV-01 is now 42.8% Latino (in general population I believe, not VAP) and centered in Las Vegas' urban core. Its voter registration breakdown is 52% Democrats to 25% Republicans.

- NV-02 now narrows to Greater Carson-Reno and Northern Nevada. Its voter registration breakdown is 42% Republican to 35% Democratic.

- NV-03 narrows to mostly just the Southwest side of the valley and Henderson-Boulder, along with some of Summerlin and all of the southern rurals (Searchlight and Laughlin). It's 40% Dem and 37% GOP.

- And NV-04, the brand spanking new district, takes in Ely and Tonopah, then gallops its way down to Clark County to take most of North Las Vegas, the Northwest end of the valley, and Summerlin. It's 46% Dem and 33% GOP.

So far, it looks like Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen, and Barbara Cegavske all live in the new NV-01, while Mark Amodei lives in the new NV-02, Joe Heck and John Oceguera live in the new NV-03, and Steven Horsford and John Lee live in the new NV-04. And so far, it looks like Horsford may get to breathe a nice sigh of relief, Kihuen gets to do a good fist pump, and the rest have huge political headaches awaiting them.

Tomorrow morning, I'll have more analysis of this late breaking development... But in the mean time, here are my quick observations:

- Judge Russell probably dodged a HUGE legal bullet, as his panel split the difference on the Voting Rights Act issue by giving NV-01 sizable Latino influence without unduly packing it.

- Nevada Democrats overall dodged HUGE political bullets in getting two safe Dem Congressional seats, along with a State Senate map that favors Democrats (more on that later, too!).

- However, two particular Clark County Democrats will have to bite painful bullets. Dina Titus' base is now split between NV-01 and NV-03, so she will have to choose whether to fight a bloody primary with Ruben Kihuen in NV-01 or agree to challenge Joe Heck again in NV-03. And if she chooses the latter, then John Oceguera had better watch out.

- At this point, Nevada Republicans look to be the biggest losers. Joe Heck is far from safe in the new NV-03, NV-04 looks quite out of reach from them, the State Senate will probably be less likely to flip with Shirley Breeden's and Alison Copening's districts made more Democratic (along with Elizabeth Halseth's too, haha!), and the Assembly still looks firmly out of reach for them as well.

And unless the Nevada Supreme Court somehow decides to invalidate this map, which I see as increasingly unlikely (judging by their recent smoke signals in letting this panel call the shots for now), these new Congressional and Legislature maps are probably here to stay. And so far, I'm mostly liking what I'm seeing. Let the games begin!

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

End of Redistricting Mess? Maybe, But Not How Ralston Thinks.

Yesterday, I moaned about the very thin "nonpartisan" veneer draping Nevada's redistricting process. Today, Jon Ralston is wishing and hoping and praying for that very thin veneer to just fall off already.

Chairman Tom Sheets at one point urged Democratic and Republican lawyers to “make us irrelevant” by crafting a deal, which really would be special. But that seemed evanescent as the two days of hearings came to an end, especially with Gov. Brian Sandoval telling the capital press corps: “I have confidence in the judicial process.”

If I thought Sandoval was being serious — as opposed to politically correct — I’d be worried. But I still believe he would call the Gang of 63 back in a nanosecond if they reached an agreement — but not a nanosecond sooner.

What would be least special of all is seeing the lawmakers return to Carson City without an accord, thus creating chaos and obnoxiousness I had hoped we left behind in the spring. I’d rather be doing stand-up outside the Legislative Building in February than have to return to the capital to watch the partisan antics redux.

Sandoval’s pose, though, is perfectly in sync with everyone else involved in this travesty as constitutional provisions are flouted and laws twisted by poseurs — paid and otherwise. At least attorneys for the Democrats and Republicans are being compensated to do what they have been doing, which is to shamelessly pander to a burgeoning Hispanic minority as if they care — truly, madly, deeply — about its aspirations and needs.

For the political parties, this is about one thing and one thing only: Power. All of the rest is trappings, window dressing, bait-and-switch.

On that last point, Ralston is totally correct. This process typically IS all about power, as the rest is just the usual bait-and-switch. However, redistricting doesn't have to be this way. All we have to do is look to our next door neighbors for good inspiration.

Under Arizona's Prop 106, the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) is legally required to start from scratch every ten years, take into account proper communities of interest and potential competitiveness, and protect voters' right to choose their legislators rather than incumbents' wishes for "ideal voters". Even though its process is far from perfect, Arizona's IRC nonetheless offers the hope of drawing districts that better reflect the state's population, regardless of incumbents' demands and party politics on steroids.

Under California's Props 11 & 20, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC) is also legally required to start from scratch every ten years, and that body is supposed to take into account proper communities of interest and municipal boundaries rather than incumbents' wishes or political party demands. And regarding the latter, California Republicans are so furious about (the lack of) it that they're filing a ridiculous law suit to overturn the new districts. And while this new process in California may lead to unintended consequences there, such as the stripping of seniority and experience in DC and Sacramento, California's CRC also provides many new opportunities for voters to retake control over elections.

So is independent redistricting perfect? Nope, just look at what's happening next door. But by the same token, we can also look next door and see an overall better functioning process that gives voters more control than the usual powers that be. And that would be quite the "special" departure from the usual politics that surrounds redistricting here in Nevada.

I honestly don't know if the current judiciary mess or retrying the Legislature is the better path to take for this current round of redistricting here. But moving forward, we really need to reexamine our State Constitution (which currently requires the Legislature to redraw its own districts and Congressional Districts) and ask if we really want to endure this kind of nonsense ten years from now.