Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Assembly

Last week, we had a chance to see what's at stake under the new Senate map proposed by Judge Russell's special masters. Now, it's the Assembly's turn as we examine how the political state of play changes there.

This morning, we discussed why rural Republicans in particular are screaming bloody murder over this map. Long story short, they lose more power. And while we saw them fume mostly over the Senate map, the Assembly map doesn't look all that great for them either.

Safe Republican Seats:

AD 23 (Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury)

AD 32 (Incumbent: Ira Hansen)

AD 33 (Incumbent: John Ellison)

AD 36 (Incumbent: Ed Goedhart)

AD 38 (Incumbent: Tom Grady)

AD 39 (Incumbent: Kelly Kite)

AD 40 (Incumbent: Pete Livermore)

Safe Democratic Seats:

AD 1 (Incumbent: Marilyn Kirkpatrick)

AD 3 (Incumbent: Peggy Pierce)

AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop)

AD 6 (Incumbent: Harvey Munford)

AD 7 (Incumbent: Dina Neal)

AD 8 (Incumbent: Jason Frierson)

AD 10 (Incumbent: Joe Hogan)

AD 11 (Incumbent: Olivia Diaz)

AD 14 (Incumbent: Maggie Carlton)

AD 15 (Incumbent: Elliot Anderson)

AD 16 (Open)

AD 17 (Incumbent: Kelvin Atkinson)

AD 18 (Incumbent: Richard Carrillo)

AD 20 (Open)

AD 24 (Incumbent: David Bobzien)

AD 27 (Incumbent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson)

AD 28 (Incumbent: Lucy Flores)

AD 30 (Incumbent: Debbie Smith)

AD 42 (Incumbent: Irene Bustamante Adams)

As you can see above, Democrats already start off with an overwhelming 19-7 advantage in safe seats! Democrats only need to win 3 of the below competitive districts to keep the majority, 7 seats to maintain their current 26-16 advantage, or 9 seats to get back to the 28-14 veto proof supermajority they briefly enjoyed in 2009.

So how can Republicans stop them? It's no easy task, as we're about to see below.

Clark County

AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
53% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
49% Harry Reid (D)
47% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
56% Brian Sandoval (R)
41% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 4 (Incumbent: Richard McArthur-R)
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 9 (Open)
Las Vegas-Northwest/Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 12 (Incumbent: James Ohrenschall-D)
Sunrise Manor, East Las Vegas, Henderson-Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 13 (Incumbent: Scott Hammond-R)
Las Vegas-Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 19 (Incumbents: Crescent Hardy-R and Steven Brooks-D)
Mesquite, Sunrise Manor, Henderson-Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Sherwood-R)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 22 (Incumbent: Lynn Stewart-R)
Henderson-Green Valley Ranch/MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 29 (Incumbent: April Mastroluca-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 35 (Open)
Southwest Vegas/Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

AD 41 (Incumbent: Paul Aizley-D)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Washoe County

AD 25 (Incumbent: Pat Hickey-R)
Reno-West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 26 (Incumbent: Randy Kirner-R)
Hidden Valley, Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

AD 31 (Incumbent: Skip Daly-D)
Sparks-Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

So here I count 5 Lean (R) districts, 6 Tossup districts, and 5 Lean (D) districts. When the leaners are included, Democrats have a 24-12 advantage... Oh wait, that makes a majority! No wonder why Republicans are pissed. They have to win all their safe seats, all their leaners, all the tossups, AND steal at least 4 of the 5 Dem leaning seats to get a majority!

Now to be fair, not everything is coming up roses for the Dems, either. While their path to majority is incredibly easy here, their path back to 2/3 supermajority gets a little tougher. All of their safe seats and all of their leaners only amount to 24 total seats, so they have to win at least 4 of the 6 tossup seats to reach the magic number 28... And at least 3 of those will be incumbent Democrats facing tougher districts with some unfamiliar new constituents (April Mastroluca and Marcus Conklin down south, Skip Daly up north), while incumbent Democrat Steven Brooks and incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy may be forced into battle royale against each other in the new AD 19 where both of them apparently live.

But all in all, Republicans seem to have more to lose under this map, so we can better understand why they're fighting like hell to stop this map from becoming the law of the land.

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