Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Ralston's Odds on 2010... And My Take on the Next Election

OK, so Jon Ralston just handicapped all the 2010 players. For the most part, I agree with him. Here's what I'll add about the coming election:

- Harry Reid works hard and fights like hell. Sure, the latest polls aren't too pretty. But with a continuing Democratic trend in Nevada and hopefully some renewed fighting spirit in our Majority Leader, he'll beat the silly jokers on the GOP side. Come on, the cardinal rule in Nevada politics is NEVER, EVER, EVER count Harry Reid out! ;-)

- The nonexistent "sins of the father" seem to be a drag on the son. That's too bad. I like Rory Reid, as he's been good for Clark County and more progressive than I expected. If this were a fair world, he could run for Governor and not have to worry about the irrational "Reid hating" spilling into his campaign.

- But because this isn't a fair world, Barbara Buckley now has an opening. So will she take it? I don't see why not. With even the f*cked up R-J "poll" showing her crushing Rory in the primary while bitchslapping Gibbons in the general and holding "Golden Boy" GOoPer Brian Sandoval to a mere 8% lead in the general, I bet more and more Democrats will want her to run to keep our chances of regaining The Governor's Mansion alive.

- Brian Sandoval is beatable. Yes, I just said it. Of course, he's one Nevada Republican that I actually don't completely detest. However, that doesn't help in a GOP primary against "Crazy Gibbons" and "Big Stud" Mike Montandon. And again, even the never-trustworthy R-J poll shows a fairly close race between him and Barbara Buckley if they were up against each other in the November general.

- So what am I hoping comes out of the GOP primary? Senate nominee Sharron Angle and Gubernatorial nominee Jim Gibbons! In both cases, both races would instantly become "Likely Democratic". But even if this doesn't happen, neither Lowden nor Lil' Tark Shark has what it takes to take Harry Reid down and not even Brian Sandoval can make the Governor's race a GOP lock if Democrats "vote strategically".

I'll try to make this a regular feature here on Nevada Progressive. Now that 2010 really is right around the corner, stay tuned here for election updates. :-)

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