Monday, July 9, 2012

Nevada's Changing Electorate... & Nevada Republicans' Sagging Fortunes

For some time now, we've documented Nevada Republicans' many problems in slapping communities of color in the face "minority voter outreach". Now, we have a better sense of why they're panicking. As more and more Nevadans in communities of color become eligible to vote, Republicans sense trouble (for them).

Here the general picture is also favorable to Obama, though some states are much more favorable than others. Looking first at the Mountain West, the two key states here are Nevada and Colorado[...]. Nevada is the nation’s leader in demographic change: Between 2008 and 2012, the minority share of eligible voters increased by an astonishing 9 points, more than 2 points a year. Minorities are now almost 40 percent of Nevada’s eligible voters. At the same time, the share of white non-college eligibles has declined by over 5 points in the state and white college eligibles by 3 points.

Oh, yes. That's right... Or, should I say ¡si se puede!

Especially as the Latino and Asian-American populations continue to grow here in Nevada and OFA & Nevada Democrats continue to target these communities for intense voter registration, Republicans will continue to feel the heat. This is why they're trying to spin away this inconvenient truth with puffed up chests and fluffed up "non-troversy". Of course, this is also why some Nevada Republicans have pursued voter suppression and Kris Kobach/Arizona G-O-TEA style "papers please" scare tactics to try to hold down the minority vote share.

So why are they so scared? It's simple, really. Until now, they've used xenophobia to win elections. And in using that xenophobia, they've alienated minority communities. So now that they're voting in larger numbers, the tables are turning and some Republicans are now realizing they're on the losing end of the equation.

So what do they do now? That's probably the key $64,000,000 question this year. Do they double down on xenophobua to please their "tea party" base? Do they try to suppress the minority vote? Or do they try to win over some new supporters? Considering what's happened just in the last year, that latter option won't be easy at all for Nevada Republicans.

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