Monday, February 22, 2010

Poll: Gibbons Gaining in Primary, Reid Gaining in General, & Voters Prefer Tax Hikes Over Further Service Cuts... HUH??!!

So Harry Reid is really a "goner" this year? And Gibbons can't win the GOP primary? And Nevada voters will never, ever support a tax increase?

OK, time to throw that "conventional wisdom" out the window! Believe it or not, these are the results from Republican pollster Glen Bolger's recent survey of 500 likely Nevada voters funded by the Retailers Association of Nevada (a typically GOP-leaning outfit).

Let's start with the US Senate results:

[General Election]

42% SUE LOWDEN
37% HARRY REID
9% JON ASHJIAN

40% DANNY TARKANIAN
39% HARRY REID
11% JON ASHJIAN

21% JOHN CHACHAS
39% HARRY REID
22% JON ASHJIAN

32% SHARRON ANGLE
37% HARRY REID
16% JON ASHJIAN

[Republican Primary]

35% TOTAL LOWDEN
28% TOTAL TARKANIAN
1% TOTAL AMODEI
8% TOTAL ANGLE
4%^ TOTAL CHRISTENSEN
* TOTAL CHACHAS

So he's not there yet, but Harry Reid does look to be closing the gap that had widened to double digits just last month. It's interesting to see the the "analysis" in the charts try to spin this as good news for the Republicans, but it looks clear that when the real threat of the Tea Party candidate (I won't lie, it helps Reid) and real weaknesses of the GOP candidates are considered Reid suddenly becomes viable again. And remember, Reid just started airing TV ads late last year and his campaign hasn't even started "vaporizing" the eventual GOP candidate yet.

OK, so what about the Governor's race? Oh my, get ready for this!

[Republican Primary]

32% TOTAL GIBBONS
38% TOTAL SANDOVAL
9% TOTAL MONTANDON

[General Election]

50% BRIAN SANDOVAL
34% RORY REID
15% UNDECIDED

40% MIKE MONTANDON
40% RORY REID
19% UNDECIDED

36% JIM GIBBONS
47% RORY REID
14% UNDECIDED

It's looking increasingly clear that Sandoval will be the clear favorite if he wins the GOP primary, but (Rory) Reid will be the clear favorite is Gibbons wins the GOP primary. And fortunately for Rory Reid, Gibbons is (re)gaining ground among GOoPer voters (but NOT everyone else). So maybe "Governor Sandoval" isn't really inevitable?

Oh, and I'm sure this just killed the GOoPer pollsters!

And, thinking some more about the budget shortfall, would you rather the Governor and State
Legislature CUT SPENDING for state employee salaries and government services such as
education and health care, or RAISE YOUR TAXES to avoid these cuts?
5/09 2/10
40% 38% CUT SPENDING
47% 47% RAISE YOUR TAXES
3% 5% BOTH/PRIMARILY CUT SPENDING (DO NOT READ)
1% 2% BOTH/PRIMARILY RAISE YOUR TAXES (DO NOT READ)
7% 6% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
3% 3% REFUSED (DO NOT READ) [...]

And, if the Governor and State Legislature were to raise taxes, who do you think should be
paying increased taxes? (DO NOT READ) (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES)
5/09 2/10
2% 1% SMALL BUSINESSES
13% 9% LARGE BUSINESSES
21% 17% CASINOS
6% 12% MINING COMPANIES
18% 16% THE RICH
3% 4% THE MIDDLE CLASS
53% 61% EVERYONE
3% 3% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
* 1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

It's so funny to see this despite all the attempting push-polling against this. Nevadans really are starting to "get it"! And while a corporate income tax still has plurality opposition, it's been gaining ground since last May (now only a 5% gap). And as you can see above, a fairer mining tax seems to be gaining steam.

So really, feel free to throw out all that "conventional wisdom" you've been hearing for the past few months. 2010 is just getting started, and things may change dramatically with major events coming up (jobs bill, health care reform, state budget, etc.).

1 comment:

  1. I don't typically say this too often, but it sounds like crap is floating to the top again.

    Sorry, but I don't want to see Gibbons and I don't want to see either of the Reids. I would sooner vote for a fringe third-party/independent candidate (which is what I did for county office last time) than any of 'em.

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