NV-Sen: Reid Takes Lead in 3-Way R-J Poll, Still Isn't "Dead"

I never thought I'd say this... But it looks like The R-J coughed up a poll with Harry Reid leading. While the two-way race between Reid and either of the GOP front runners still looks lousy according to The R-J, we all know now that this will be at least a three-way race after all with the Tea Party forming its own splinter group with its own candidate. Right after they talked about how far down Reid is in their poll, they managed to spit this out...

But the polling done for the Las Vegas Review-Journal also shows this year's U.S. Senate race could undergo a major shake-up if a Tea Party candidate gets involved.

It would be a new ballgame, and Reid would be the big beneficiary.

A disaffected conservative running under the Tea Party banner would drain support from a Republican candidate, according to polling of a three-way contest.

In that case, Reid would draw 36 percent of voters, while the Republican nominee would get 32 percent and the Tea Party candidate 18 percent if the election were held today.

And according to CQ Politics, Reid even has a lead among independents with another 30% of them undecided in the three-way match-up. OK, so maybe the Tea Party won't really draw this much support in November... Or maybe they will? We don't know for sure, but whatever the case all the news from this month shows that our Senate race is still very fluid and Harry Reid really can't be counted out.

Oh, and here's another reason not to count Reid out. One of his good friends, who happens to be one of Nevada's biggest employers, is promising to be of help.

In an interview after President Barack Obama's first visit to CityCenter on Friday, Murren used strong words to make it clear he would not only remain loyal to Reid for his efforts to save MGM Mirage's $8.5 billion project but he would take on those trying to remove Reid from office.

"I think it's un-Nevadan, unpatriotic, to go against Senator Reid and I will call out those who try," the MGM Mirage chairman and CEO told Vegas Confidential after the world premiere of Cirque du Soleil's "Viva Elvis."

And for better or for worse, the casinos still hold a hell of a lot of sway in Nevada politics. If the Republicans can't lean on them for help, then they're screwed with this Senate race.

And you've been wondering why I keep saying it's unwise to bet against Harry Reid in this state?