Finally, a Step Forward

About an hour ago, another bill passed to live another day. This time it was SB 49, the campaign finance reform bill pushed by Secretary of State Ross Miller (D). It had to endure some weakening alterations in committee, but ultimately much of what Miller wanted survived.

And just moments ago, the amended SB 49 passed the full Senate. The vote was 13-8 in favor. All Democrats voted for the bill, and Senators Joe Hardy (R-Boulder City) & Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas) joined the Democrats to vote to approve. All the other Republicans voted against the bill.

But of course, the ones who voted against SB 49 are claiming it's actually the Democrats who oppose campaign finance reform. "Oh, Armani! Oh, the reporting requirement here isn't good enough!" To be fair, Senator Ben Kieckhefer (R-Reno) did offer an amendment. However, the others did not. So really, their excuses for voting against SB 49 sound all too familiar.

Is this bill a panacea for better transparency and ethics? Not quite. In fact, we've discussed what's really needed to clean up the hot mess that's Nevada government.

Yet with that being said, SB 49 is a good start. It finally sets real standards for campaign finance reporting. And remember, knowledge is power. So tonight, the Nevada Legislature finally took a major step in the direction of meaningful reform.

Profiles in Courage

Last night was truly one to remember. SJR 13 passed the Nevada Senate 12-9. And during the debate on the Senate floor, we saw many surprises. For one, Senator Kelvin Atkinson (D-North Las Vegas) came out. And BuzzFeed ran with the story, which made it national.

Late Monday, the Nevada Senate became the first legislative chamber in the country to vote to overturn a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex couples from marrying.

After a little more than an hour of debate in which one senator publicly declared that he was gay for the first time, the Nevada Senate voted 12-9 to repeal the state's 2002 amendment limiting marriage to one man and one woman and replace it with language requiring the recognition of all marriages between two people, "regardless of gender."

In addition to out LGBT Sens. David Parks and Pat Spearman, Sen. Kelvin Atkinson declared on the floor during the debate, "I am a black, gay male." Because he was speaking about his sexual orientation publicly for the first time Monday night, he said he had heard negative comments about the marriage amendment repeal from others prior to the vote. But, he said, "People should mind their business and allow people to do what they want to do."

State Sen. Ben Kieckhefer was the sole Republican to vote for the marriage amendment's repeal.

Coming out isn't easy. Nope, it can be difficult. And for some, it takes time. So it's incredibly courageous for Senator Atkinson to not only come out, but do so on the Nevada Senate floor. Oh, and he came out just as his colleagues were about to vote on his civil rights. Whoa.

And that wasn't all. As BuzzFeed also mentioned, Senator Ben Kieckhefer (R-Reno) was the sole Senate Republican to cross the aisle and support marriage equality last night. On one hand, this wasn't too surprising. After all, he "came out" in support of equality last month at the first SJR 13 hearing.





Yet on the other hand, this was quite surprising. Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) did a total back-flip on SJR 13. And he was whining about amendments. And he was blaming Democrats (??!!) for his flip-flop. And he was arguing that "marriage shouldn't be in the Constitution", even as he was voting to keep marriage discrimination in the Nevada Constitution. And in case all that wasn't confusing and ridiculous enough, he also ultimately whipped Republicans against the current version of SJR 13.

Yet despite this intense intrigue and pressure, Senator Kieckhefer stood by his principles. He showed true courage. And he ultimately did what he knew was right.

And that wasn't all. We also saw this.

RT @SethBRau: Senator @Jones4Nevada says he'd rather lose an election than not give his brother-in-law equal rights #SJR13 #nvleg #powerful

Against tons of pressure, Senator Justin Jones (D-Enterprise) voted for SJR 13 last night. He was even threatened by the mastermind of the Question 2 marriage ban himself! And some didn't expect him to do this anyway because of his faith. Yet despite the misperceptions and the political threats, Senator Jones voted for equality anyway. Now that's true courage.

At first, last night was a bit disappointing and frustrating. Yet again, our civil rights were being treated as political footballs. But this time, we saw a difference. This time, 12 Nevada Senators ultimately showed true courage. Oh, and they took some advice from one of my favorite philosophers on what to do with the pure political BS.



This isn't even a full list, far from it. Again, all 12 Senators who voted for SJR 13 last night are true profiles in courage. I just thought we should talk about this before we see more spin suggesting otherwise.

Senate Passes SJR 15 (Again).

Last week, we saw a breakthrough. Just weeks after facing near death, SJR 15 was resurrected in an unanimous Senate Revenue & Economic Development Committee vote. Today, the resurrection continued as the full Senate voted 17-4 in favor. Only Senators Barbara Cegavske (R-Spring Valley), Pete Goicoechea (R-Eureka), Don Gustavson (R-Sparks), and James Settlemeyer (R-Minden) objected.

Otherwise, "The Senate GOP Mod Squad" joined with all the Senate Democrats to pass the bill. It now moves onto the Assembly. And as long as it passes there (again), it moves onto the 2014 general election ballot for final approval.

So why again is this important? Take a look at this again.

• Trans-national mining conglomerates took $8.76 billion in gold from Nevada in 2011, and paid a total of $104 million to the state general fund under the mining tax, an effective tax rate of 1.187%. In 2010, they mined $6.64 billion in gold, and paid $71.7 million in taxes, an effective tax rate of 1.079%. (Nevada Department of Taxation)

• Mining does pay sales tax and they pay certain property taxes —but not on the value of the mine or their mining claims. Renters, the unemployed, and minimum wage workers also pay sales and property taxes. But gold mining is different, so it should be taxed differently. Once that gold is gone, it’s gone forever. The money will be in Canada and other foreign countries, leaving Nevada with clean up costs and massive pits.

• Three of the five largest mines in Nevada are foreign-owned. The second largest mine in the world, and the most profitable mine in the world, is owned by Barrick corporation, based in Canada. This single mine will exceed $1 billion in profits in 2012, having reaped $500 million in the second quarter and $313 million in the third quarter of 2012 alone.

• Barrick pays next to nothing in taxes on the huge windfall profits from the world’s most profitable gold mine—paying a mere 1% on gross production value in taxes to Nevada’s General Fund in 2010, according to the state’s 2010-11 net proceeds of minerals tax (NPOM) bulletin.

As we've discussed before, SJR 15 takes the mining industry's current tax rate and deductions out of the Nevada Constitution so that our legislators have more authority over future mining taxes. That's all. Yet because that's SJR 15, mining industry lobbyists have fought hard to shoot it down this session (after exasperation over the status quo finally convinced most legislators to pass it the first time in 2011).

However, the story isn't over quite yet. The Assembly must now pass SJR 15 (again). Then in November 2014, voters must provide final approval. And actually, that's what likely scares the mining industry the most.

So this story may be far from over... But the mining industry already fears the ending. We'll have to see if the Assembly moves us closer to that happy ending.

The Biggest #NVLeg Story You Haven't (Yet) Seen

I know this week has been chock full of hot Nevada Legislature stories. One in particular continues to grab headlines. However, there's one major story that saw an exciting development on Tuesday... Yet hasn't received much attention.

Let's change that.



Remember when we discussed this session's flurry of ethics & campaign finance reform related bills? One of the bills we looked at was Senator Justin Jones' (D-Enterprise) SB 203, which requires lobbyists to file quarterly activity reports.

I just happened to be on the Senate floor when SB 203 was being considered there. Senator Jones rose to speak on his bill. And there was some banter going back and forth among other Senators on the matter. And I was wondering how this would turn out. After all, ethics and campaign finance bills don't always have an easy ride in Carson City.



However, this time was different. I was stunned as the vote was called. At first, the vote looked like it was going to be painfully close. But then, this happened.



It was unanimous! How often does the Nevada Senate unanimously agree on anything? And this happened for a bill that requires lobbyists to file quarterly reports?

I know, I know, this is just a small niche of policy. Perhaps others just consider this a "baby step". But when considering how difficult it had been to pass any kind of reform in past sessions, what happened in the Senate on Tuesday may truly be huge news.

We've seen this constantly in Carson City. Corporate lobbyists run around the Legislature Building and privately cut their deals with lawmakers. So much has been so secretive. Yet this week, the Nevada Legislature made a major move in curbing this by calling for more transparency in lobbying activities.

Of course, there's still more to do. SB 203 must now go to the Assembly for approval. The fate of the other ethics & campaign finance bills is still unknown. And signs of scandal continue to loom over Carson City.

But at least on Tuesday, signs of hope emerged. Perhaps this time, the Legislature can take steps to end the rampant culture of corruption. It would be nice to see a happy ending to this kind of story for a change.

#NVLeg: Lay of the Land in SD 5

We've talked plenty before about the fiercely competitive race to control the upper house of the Nevada Legislature. And perhaps of all the hot #NVLeg races not in Washoe County, the race in Senate District 5 will very much come down to what happens in the field.

Last Saturday, Joyce Woodhouse (the Democratic nominee in SD 5) did another precinct walk. However, this was not just any precinct walk. Twenty-five Henderson firefighters joined Woodhouse to walk about a dozen precincts in SD 5 in Henderson.







Between recent "tea party" fueled attacks on firefighters (along with many other public servants) and State Senate G-O-TEA Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson; he himself narrowly defeated Woodhouse 51-48 in the old and slightly more GOP friendly SD 5 in 2010) announcing plans to attack workers' rights next year if he becomes Majority Leader, it looked like these Henderson firefighters were stirred into action. And they were ready to fight back. Although Roberson himself won't be up for reelection until 2014 (in the new SD 20 formed from the southern portion of the old, "super sized" SD 5), (the compacted Silverado Ranch to Green Valley north of I-215 to Old Henderson) SD 5 presents a key opportunity. Not only can they avenge Roberson's narrow of defeat of Woodhouse, but they may very well prevent Roberson from becoming Majority Leader by propelling Woodhouse back to Carson City.



Obviously, Nevada workers see a whole lot at stake in SD 5. That's why they took to the streets. And really, there's no better way for them to score a win here than to work the field.

After all, field matters. Democrats have already been working the field at the top of the ticket, but they haven't been alone. In fact, Joyce Woodhouse walks herself almost every day. And as she's been talking to voters throughout the district, she's been engaging in the kind of valuable face to face voter contact that just can't be replicated or imitated by any billboard, mail piece, or TV commercial.

So far, voters have been expressing their concern with the state of our schools, as well as what's happening with the overall economy. A few voters have even mentioned their frustration with the state's unfair tax code. And again, these conversations are so valuable because they allow for the kind of dialogue and interaction that one can not reach with TV ads or roadside signs. And believe it or not, many voters actually appreciate this dialogue (and prefer this to generic TV and mail ads).

Occasionally, I've seen flyers for Steve Kirk, Woodhouse's Republican opponent. They look quite generic, basically proclaiming him as "Generic Conservative Republican". While he clearly has some people out canvassing, it's unclear as to what kind of impression he's making on voters. While he's spent plenty of money on those flyers, as well as roadside signs and mail pieces, he hasn't really spent time engaging in any dialogue with local voters. If this continues, both he and Michael Roberson won't like the results in November.

Post-Primary #NVLeg Senate Ratings

I promised you this on Wednesday, so I'll start delivering today. You asked, so you shall receive. Now that the primary is over, it's time to take a fresh look at the hot races that will determine the balance of power in Carson City and Washington, DC, next year. And today, we will be starting with another look at the upper house of Nevada's Legislature: The Senate.

When we last checked in March, Republicans were starting to get nervous about their chances of retaking the Senate. And as you'll see below, there's still plenty of reasons for them to have the jitters (though Democrats shouldn't get overconfident, either).

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley, Silverado Ranch, Old Henderson

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 45%

Race Rating: Tossup

So Former Henderson City Council Member Steve Kirk handily won his GOP primary against "tea partier" Annette Teijero. Now, the really tough part begins.

Early on, Kirk was seen by many pundits as at least a slight favorite (despite the partisan numbers) because of his strong fundraising. However, he was ultimately forced to spend in the primary. That gave Democrat and Former State Senator Joyce Woodhouse (who entered just this year, after Senator Shirley Breeden announced her retirement) a chance to catch up on fundraising... And get a head start on persuading voters in the field.

While I'm not yet comfortable taking this seat out of "Tossup Territory", I am thinking Senate Republican Leader Michael Roberson will soon be sweating bullets because of this race... If he hasn't started already. If Kirk loses to Woodhouse, then Democrats will keep the Senate.

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 53%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

If Republicans have to sweat bullets on 5, then Democrats must be getting a little jittery on 6. While Senate Democratic Caucus endorsed candidate Benny Yerushalmi won the primary, he only won with 56% against "some dude" Tom Welsh (who barely spent any $). Some insiders thought Yerushalmi's strong fundraising would help Team Blue crush "tea party" darling Mark Hutchison in this seat being vacated by Democrat Allison Copening (who beat GOP incumbent Bob Beers in 2008 in a more GOP friendly district), but this week's primary results should make them rethink that assumption.

While Hutchison, the lawyer hand-picked by then Governor Jim Gibbons (R) to fight the Affordable Care Act in court, may be too conservative on paper for this swing seat, Yerushalmi and the Caucus clearly have more work ahead of them in convincing voters to choose him instead.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So Roberson got his way in the end after all. Mari St. Martin will indeed be the GOP nominee here. However, that's coming at a very steep price. While Brent Jones failed to upset on Tuesday, his "tea party" fueled opposition to St. Martin and Roberson succeeded in damaging the former Nevada Republican Party spokesperson's public image. In branding St. Martin as a "reckless party girl", they reminded voters of their Former Senator turned Maxim model (Elizabeth Halseth). And in the end, that does nothing but further weaken Team Red in this seat that redistricting first put into play.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Justin Jones breezed through his primary, raised over $130,000 so far this year, and has been working the field like crazy. While Nevada Democrats aren't taking this seat for granted, they must be smiling ay the kind of rock solid campaign Jones is running... And giggling at the train wreck Republicans are trying desperately to salvage.

SD 18
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 50%
H Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 38%

Race Rating: Tossup

Normally, this kind of seat is incredibly difficult for Democrats to win. However, a "near perfect storm" has put flipping this seat into the realm of possibility.

First off, the North had to give up a Senate seat. Secondly, Democrats scored big time when Kelli Ross, local businesswoman and wife of Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross, decided to run here. And finally, they've been helped by the ugly Republican infighting spilling over to local races.

Still, Roberson approved candidate Scott Hammond survived the primary... And that part isn't sweet music to Democrats' ears. In this primary, Roberson got to breathe a big sigh of relief.

However, Assembly Member Hammond now has a bigger task ahead in fighting for his promotion in the general. And since Kelli Ross has managed to thread the needle in preventing the Democratic base from throwing her overboard (she survived her own primary challenge from progressive favorite Donna Schlemmer) while maintaining her appeal to independent and crossover Republican voters, she can't be counted out. This is likely still a close race that Republicans will have to fight hard to win.

SD 1
North Las Vegas- Eldorado, Aliante

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 60%
Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
R Reid (D) 54%
Sandoval (R) 42%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is likely the only time you'll ever see this seat on the board. I'm only putting it on today as a courtesy to anyone who's wondering how progressive challenger Pat Spearman's shocking landslide defeat of Blue Dog incumbent John Lee changes the state of this race. Basically, it doesn't. For goodness sake, Republicans didn't even bother to run a candidate here! While the Independent American candidate will probably get a higher than usual share of the vote in this Nor'town based district, Spearman will most likely take over Lee's old desk in the Senate Chambers next year.

Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Caughlin Ranch, Northwest, West Downtown

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 37%

Race Rating: Tossup

Oddly enough, the race likely to provide the most drama in November caused next to none in the primary. Republican Greg Brower and Democrat Sheila Leslie are now set to battle on to November. And while Brower has the advantages of a well organized county party (as opposed to the NV GOP train wreck), a very slight GOP registration edge, and a strong fundraiser in Brower, Leslie has the advantages of a strong state Democratic Party run field operation, likely strength at the top of the ticket (in private polling, Obama has been surprisingly resilient in Washoe County), and a strong grassroots campaigner in Leslie. This will likely be hard fought all the way to the end, and Washoe Republicans will be scrambling furiously here because they know the Senate is lost if Brower loses.

So what does the final count look like? Again, let me give the latest scoreboard, which is ranked highest to lowest in likelihood of Democratic win.

9 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
15 (Flip)
6 (Hold)
18 (Flip)

(And again, there's a better chance of Hell freezing over than that of Republicans winning 1.)

If I had to draw a line now, it would again fall just after 15. This would give Democrats 12 seats, or a net gain of 1 (GOP flips 6, but Dems flip 9 & 15). However, things may change drastically because we have 4 Tossup seats. Expect much more action in the war for control of #NVLeg this summer and fall.

A Look Inside SD 1 (Lee v. Spearman Primary)

Last Thursday, a friend asked me to go with her to check out a hot campaign in North Las Vegas. Guess where I ended up. If you guessed Senate District 1, then you're correct!







Nevada Priorities PAC, the progressive coalition supporting Pat Spearman's campaign, was fired up and ready to go yesterday morning at Seastrand Park in North Las Vegas. By 9:30 AM, there were at least a dozen volunteers ready to go out and walk. There were local feminist activists, LGBTQ equality activists, and environmentalists all huddling up and grabbing walk packets. It was quite the sight.

It was also interesting to see what's actually been happening on the ground in North Las Vegas. In the precinct my friend went to, it was about an even split... Between undecided Democrats and Spearman supporters. There were very few Lee supporters. Apparently, that's been the norm for Nevada Priorities' field campaign so far. Pat Spearman has been working hard in the field, and now she's reaping the rewards.

However, that still doesn't mean beating the incumbent Senator is easy. To the contrary, John Lee has some key business lobby power players behind him, so he can't be counted out. He also has people in the field, as his flyers were still on a couple doorsteps in the neighborhood we visited yesterday. Voters here are also getting plenty of phone calls and mail drops from both sides, and the activity won't cease until the last polling sites close on Primary Election Day.

Yesterday was the first day of early voting, so it was especially important for Nevada Priorities to knock plenty of doors. Both they and Lee supporters are targeting Democratic primary voters who regularly vote, as they are the ones who nearly always determine primary results. As we've discussed before, this is where John Lee likely runs into trouble. And now, the fate of his political career lies in their hands.

SD 1 Primary Heats Up As Progressives Churn Out Anti-Lee Mailers

Remember that episode of "The Agenda" last month when Pat Spearman was on? At the end of the program, Elizabeth Crum was asking how Spearman could possibly compete without the kind of money and field operation that Lee has.



Well, it looks like those assumptions Crum made were wrong. Jon Ralston has the latest.

A coalition of progressive groups have mailed the first of what they hope will be nine pieces against state Sen. John Lee, calling him "a millionaire who stands with the richest 1%, not the bottom 99%."

The targeted mailer, posted at right, uses several Lee votes, including against a tenant rights bill co-sponsored by Speaker Barbara Buckley, to contrast him with their candidate, Patricia Spearman.

The folks out to erase Lee are: ProgressNow Nevada Action, Nevada Conservation League, Planned Parenthood and IBEW. Also, MoveOn, PLAN Action and Sierra Club are assisting where they can. [...]

Without the moneyed and populous teachers and Culinary, this is all about phone banks and mail and targeting what will be a small primary universe. Lee will have the money and most of the endorsements, and most insiders think he will win. But with such a small turnout likely, only a few thousand votes will be needed, which has to be making some people, including Lee, a tad nervous.

I had always figured that union organizing muscle would neutralize Lee's Senate Caucus (endorsement) advantage. And I also thought Crum wasn't giving Spearman proper credit for working the field and knocking on so many doors in SD 1 (alongside many enthusiastic volunteers). But now, we're seeing something else that can cut into Lee's incumbency edge... And perhaps turn it against him.

Remember that SD 1 is a heftily Democratic district, so this race will be decided in this primary... And it will be decided mostly by the highest propensity and most hard core Democratic voters. And given John Lee's tendency to join Republicans often to advance their policy priorities, these mailers may come back to bite Lee depending on how many are sent and how many people see them before early voting begins.

It's increasingly looking like a real race is developing in Senate 1. We'll have to see if voters there value incumbency and plum committee assignments, or if they prefer someone who hews closer to their ideology.

Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction

Yesterday, a certain "newspaper" posted this article on the race for the Legislature this year... And the Carson City reporter at the "newspaper" actually managed to repost an entire Senate Republican Caucus press release predict a 12-9 Republican majority in the State Senate next year, as well as expanded Republican numbers in the Assembly. And how, one might ask, did Ed Vogel reach this conclusion? Basically, he gave every marginal seat to the Republicans!

I mean, come on, how ridiculous is that? The only way that happens is if somehow 2012 is another huge "Republican wave election". And as we've been chronicling here for some time, that just isn't likely to happen. If even Rasmussen's latest poll shows President Obama winning Nevada over Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin, then we won't be seeing another "Republican wave election" this fall. And if Nevada Republicans continue to spend more time infighting than organizing, then I have a hard time seeing how some magic "momentum" successfully counteracts the actual organizing that Nevada Democrats are doing on the ground this year.

Not even Ralston was buying that "newspaper analysis" last night.



So what does the real picture look like? Let me help. Since the last time we did race ratings was in October, we were probably overdue for an update anyway. But considering the crazy @ss spin we saw in a certain "newspaper" yesterday, it's definitely time to update the state of the race. And unlike that certain "newspaper", we're not just copying a press release.

Today, we're covering the Senate. (And I'm just listing the competitive races below because the safe seats are all the same as October's initial analysis.) Tomorrow, we'll be looking at competitive Assembly races.

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley/Silverado Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
56% Obama (D)
42% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
41% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
45% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

I still live in this district, so I at least like to think that I know more about what's actually happening in this district than what most media pundits think they know. Basically, SD 5 was reworked in redistricting to become mostly a Green Valley/Silverado Ranch district with just some of Old Henderson remaining. Overall, it transforms the district from what had been considered Republican leaning turf into a more Democratic friendly district.

Still, Nevada Democrats can't take anything for granted here. Former Henderson City Council Member Steve Kirk has been endorsed by the Senate Republican Caucus, and he still has a base of support here. However, he can't take anything for granted here either, as local doctor Annette Teijero is also running in the Republican primary and seems to be emerging as the "tea party" favorite here. While Kirk seems to be leading in the "money race", Teijero and Democratic candidate (and former State Senator) Joyce Woodhouse are getting a head start in the always important field game.

This seat may again come down to the wire, and this seat may again be "bombed" with intense campaign spending, but this time strong Democratic performance at the "top of the ticket" is almost certain to be the key that sends Joyce Woodhouse back to Carson City. While Kirk's early fundraising advantage has me placing this seat in "Tossup" territory for now, I honestly don't think this will be as easy of a Republican pickup as Michael Roberson and most media pundits had originally expected this district to be. (In fact, I won't be surprised if they don't pick up this seat at all.)

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin/Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
55% Obama (D)
43% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
53% Harry Reid (D)
43% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
52% Brian Sandoval (R)
44% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

If any seat is the ideal example of the high stakes of this year's Legislature elections, it's probably this one. Democrats were already starting to get nervous about this seat when incumbent Senator Allison Copening (D-Las Vegas) faced heat over HOA related legislation she introduced last session. But when Copening announced her retirement in January, the race really opened up. Republicans had already recruited Mark Hutchison, the lawyer who accepted Jim Gibbons' offer to represent Nevada in the anti-health care reform law suit now being argued in the US Supreme Court. However, Democrats had the good fortune of finding 2010 SD 9 candidate Benny Yerushalmi (who only lost to Elizabeth Halseth by about 5%) willing to run in the new SD 6. Thomas Welsh is also running in the Democratic Primary, but so far Yerushalmi looks favored to win that primary.

Most likely, the general election will be the big fight here. And already, Yerushalmi vs. Hutchison vies to be the among the key marquee fights for #NVLeg this year. While the new SD 6 is more Democratic than its previous incarnation, it's still a close enough district to leave Benny Yerushlami and Nevada Democrats hardly any room for error. And considering the big money likely heading Hutchison's way, Yerushalmi will definitely need a stronger field presence this time than he did in 2010 to actually seal the deal this year.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
58% Obama (D)
40% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
41% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
50% Brian Sandoval (R)
46% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Of all the critical Senate seats up this year, this one looks to deliver the biggest change. For one, it wasn't even supposed to be up this year... But a surprise resignation by Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise) changed that assumption, and that really changed the whole dynamic of the race for the Legislature. What had been a tough hill for Democrats to climb to hold onto the Senate is now becoming a tough hill for Republicans to climb (yes, really, Ed Vogel & R-J pundits) to flip it.

What really made Halseth's resignation a huge blow for Michael Roberson's hopes of becoming Majority Leader was that SD 9 changed radically in redistricting. What had been a more GOP friendly exurban Western Clark County district is now an ethnically diverse and increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest Vegas Valley district. And like SD 5, all it takes is strong Democratic turnout and good "top of the ticket" Democratic performance to flip this seat.

And by landing a top notch candidate in Justin Jones, Nevada Democrats are serious about picking up this seat this time. "Angry Professor" Fred Conquest is also running on the Democratic side, but it (again) doesn't look like he's running a serious campaign (seriously, his web site still features his failed 2010 Gubernatorial run). I honestly don't think Justin Jones should have a problem getting through the Democratic Primary. And with former Joe Heck & Dean Heller spokesperson Mari St. Martin and "tea party" favorite Brent Jones running on the Republican side, I'm liking Justin Jones' chances in the general election. While Democrats still can't take this seat for granted, I am thinking this is the Senate seat most likely to change hands this year.

SD 18 (Open)
Las Vegas- Northwest/Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
50% Sharron Angle (R)
45% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
38% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Early on, it looked like the most competition we'd see here would be in the Republican Primary... But that all changed when Kelli Ross announced her candidacy here. Not only does she look like a formidable candidate in her own right, but her husband (Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross) will probably help her connect with folks in ways that many Democrats typically can't in this Northwest Las Vegas district.

However, Democrats shouldn't get too giddy about picking up this new seat (created mostly from remains of the old SD 9 and SD 12, and moved here from rural Nevada) just yet. Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas) doesn't quite have the same "fire breathing" reputation as the guy he replaced, so running against him may not be a cake walk. However Hammond isn't getting a cake walk in the Republican Primary, since fellow Assembly Member Richard MacArthur (R-Las Vegas) is also running, and MacArthur DOES have a "fire breathing" reputation that's endearing to the local "tea party" set here. Meanwhile in the Democratic Primary, Kelli Ross is being challenged from the left by former PTA President Donna Schlemmer.

This may very well be one of those races that's competitive from beginning to end. And perhaps more so than any of the other marginal Senate seats, this one may really hinge on what happens in the primary. Hammond seems to be the less doctrinaire conservative Republican, while Ross looks to be the more moderate Democrat. So of course, their general election asset may turn out to be the key primary liability.


Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
57% Obama (D)
40% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
54% Harry Reid (D)
40% Sharron Angle (R)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
57% Brian Sandoval (R)
37% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

This most definitely promises to be the big #NVLeg marquee race of the north. And the stakes here are incredibly high. Two seasoned legislators are running against each other, and the winner of this race may very well be "the majority maker". This explains why the competition is already turning fierce up north.

As we can see in the above video, Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) is trying to flip-flop his way to the middle of the road after pivoting quite far to the "tea party" right in last year's NV-02 special election. Meanwhile, Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) had to make a big move of her own, albeit a physical one to a smaller house after her kids moved out of the old house, to run in the new SD 15. And unlike the old Washoe Senate 3 district where Bill Raggio served for nearly four decades, the new SD 15 has only a tiny (about 2%) GOP registration advantage... Yet recent election results show the district to be trending Democratic, which is why Greg Brower and Michael Roberson haven't been resting easily ever since Sheila Leslie's big move.

This may very well be the most expensive #NVLeg race in history once all is said and done. Republicans must win this seat again to have a chance at getting any kind of Senate majority. But if Sheila Leslie wins SD 15 for Democrats, then Democrats are virtually assured of keeping the Senate as well as keeping alive hopes of a possible 2/3 veto-proof supermajority.

---

So this is what's at stake with Senate elections this year. If Republicans win at least four out of the five marginal seats listed above, Roberson becomes Majority Leader. On the other hand, all Democrats have to do is win at least two out of these five races to keep the majority (and I think Dems already have a head start here with SD 9 now on the table). Yet if 2012 turns out to be a great year for Nevada Democrats, President Obama manages to win the state handily again, and Democrats manage to pull a spectacular feat of winning all five competitive Senate races, then Democrats finally achieve that 2/3 veto-proof supermajority that's been enticing them for quite some time.

So what's really possible? Let me conclude by ranking the seats in order of likelihood of changing parties:

1. SD 9 (R to D)
2. SD 15 (R to D)
3. SD 6 (D to R)
4. SD 5 (D to R)
5. SD 18 (R to D)

Right now, I'd stop the flipping somewhere between #2 and #3. Yes, I know, I should be more decisive here! OK, so let's be generous and keep the flipping going all the way to #3. This means Hutchison turns SD 6 from Blue to Red while Leslie turns SD 15 from Red to Blue and (Justin) Jones turns SD 9 from Red to Blue. And this means Woodhouse keeps SD 5 Blue while Hammond or MacArthur keeps SD 18 Red. So in the end, I guess the "newspaper" actually did get the final Senate numbers correct... They just got the parties mixed up. (They say Republicans get a 12-9 majority. I say the current state of play suggests a 12-9 Democratic majority.)

Got to love that "newspaper". ;-)

Greg Brower Flips... & Flops.

On "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Weathervane) tried his hand at attacking Sheila Leslie for moving into the new SD 15... But he only made himself look foolish. Why? Here's a hint.

Brower was appointed to the Senate seat to replace the late Sen. Bill Raggio, R-Reno, who resigned before the start of the 2011 session. Brower refused to speculate on his political future beyond 2012 when asked if he was considering a run for Nevada attorney general. Democrat Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto will be termed out of office in 2014.

“I am 100 percent focused on getting elected to this Senate seat,” he said.

When asked by host Sam Shad if he would commit to a full four-year term in the Senate, Brower said: “I can’t predict the future, Sam, I just don’t know what is going to happen. I’m just not even going to think beyond 2012.”

So Greg Brower is attacking Sheila Leslie for doing the proper paperwork to run in the district that she now lives in, but Brower himself won't commit to staying on the job and serving his local constituents! And remember, this isn't the first time Brower abandoned his constituents and the job he's supposed to be doing for them. As soon as Brian Sandoval appointed Dean Heller to the US Senate seat that John Ensign abandoned, Greg Brower was quick to announce his Congressional campaign... And abandon his duties as a State Senator representing Washoe County.

It might be understandable if Greg Brower is suffering from short-timer’s syndrome. He’s running to represent Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District and the Reno Republican’s state Senate seat will likely move to Clark County after redistricting.

Still, Brower’s symptoms have become so pronounced that his party’s legislative leaders recently sat him down for a talking-to about his notable absences from committee hearings and floor debates.

Brower has been present at roll call for nearly every floor session and committee meeting. He’s missed no floor votes. However, he’s developed a routine of taking extended breaks after being marked present or leaving early while his colleagues on the Education or Health and Human Services committees work late into the evening.

The practice has irritated some of his colleagues, Republican and Democrats. [...]

Brower missed large sections of the public schools hearing on April 20. Two days later, when he was absent from the higher education hearing before the Senate, Horsford, sent the sergeant-at-arms to fetch Brower from his office.

Four days later, Brower officially announced his congressional campaign.

When asked whether he has left committee or floor meetings to attend to campaign business, Brower dodged the question..

“My focus is on the session and representing my constituents,” he said. “That’s what I am here for.”

(This Sun article was written before the Nevada Supreme Court approved a new Legislature map that actually moved Brower and Leslie into the new SD 15 in western Washoe County.)

So when the NV-02 seat was wide open, Brower was quick to jump on that opportunity to run for Congress. But when that didn't work out, the game plan shifted to running for State Senate this year, only for Brower to set himself up for a run for Attorney General in 2014. Yet even as Brower's initial expectation of a smooth sail to election didn't quite pan out that way, he still won't commit to actually serving the full term!

And Greg Brower thinks he can legitimately attack Sheila Leslie for simply filing in the district she now lives in? Who's he kidding?

But wait, there's more. He also had the gall to say this on "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday.

Brower also defended Sandoval for his announcement last week that he would continue a package of expiring tax increases into the 2013-15 budget to avoid any further budget cuts to education. Brower voted against continuing the 2009 taxes in the 2011 session even though Sandoval supported the decision as a compromise to finalize the current budget.

“I think what the governor is trying to do is move this state forward,” he said. “And that means leadership on real issues like the budget. And I think that’s what we saw last week and that’s what we’re going to continue to see. And to the extent this governor is going to take a leadership role in moving this state forward, I stand solidly behind him.”

Again, who's he kidding? Greg Brower voted AGAINST the final budget agreement that Brian Sandoval signed into law! But of course, that vote happened just as Brower was kicking his Congressional campaign into high gear. Shortly after sine die, Brower appeared at this NV-02 G-O-TEA candidate forum and professed his love for all things "tea party".

There was little disagreement voiced among the three, who Las Vegas Sun political reporter Jon Ralston has dubbed “the leading candidates.”

All said they were supportive of Ryan’s budget plan, and that they would have voted for the Pence Amendment to defund Planned Parenthood. Education, they all agreed, should be dealt with on a local level, and the role of the Department of Education should be highly diminished, or the Department should be gotten rid of all together. On energy, all called for more domestic sources of energy, whether it be green energy, offshore drilling, or nuclear energy.

Amodei disputed the use of the phrase “green energy” saying that term “is another way of saying politically correct energy.”

Asked about their feelings on the Tea Party movement, Lippold and Brower expressed hearty approval.

“Any time you have citizens getting involved directly in how their government is run, it is a good thing for the United States,” said Lippold.

“I couldn’t agree more,” said Brower. “Any movement that makes government more accountable is a movement I can get behind.” [Emphasis mine.]

Oh yes, Greg Brower loved him some "tea party" when he wanted teabaggers' votes in the NV-02 special election. But apparently now that he's simultaneously "pivoting himself to the center" in a more evenly split and increasingly Democratic leaning State Senate district and "angling" himself for a future statewide run, Brower is abandoning the "po' lil' teabaggers" and embracing Brian Sandoval's and Michael Roberson's newfound love of extending taxes and funding public education.

Hmmm... Who could have guessed this?

(Jump to 13:30 on the video below. Keep going to 9:50 for all the good stuff.)



At least give Sheila Leslie credit for refusing to morph on TV into something she's really not. She's always been consistent in stating what she believes in and who she wants to work for, and that doesn't look to be changing any time soon.

Greg Brower, on the other hand, is now trying to look "moderate" after spending the last year pandering to "tea party" extremists, voting against badly needed school funding that Brian Sandoval now admits we can't afford to take away next year, and even voting against basic civil rights, such as ensuring fair employment and creating a safe learning environment. Hell, Brower even voted against critical infrastructure improvement projects that invested in our state and put more Nevadans to work. Greg Brower may now want to talk a good "moderate" game, but his actual votes in the Legislature last year tell a totally different and rather "TEA" tinged story.

So perhaps before Greg Brower tries again to attack Sheila Leslie for moving into the district she now lives in, he should take a look at his own record and try to give SD 15 voters an honest answer as to who he really serves.

All About Brian (When He's Not Even on the Ballot This Year?)

This morning, Anjeanette Damon has a Sun article on the continuing speculation on Governor Brian Sandoval's national aspirations. Honestly, I think Grover Norquist put that to rest last week.

So now, attention turns to what Sandoval will do next year. His surprise announcement on extending the 2009 tax deal indefinitely (right after Grover Norquist dissed him!) seems to have reshaped the dynamics of this year's race for the Legislature. Both David Schwartz and Jon Ralston pontificate on how it affects Republican Legislature candidates. Ralston seems to think that this helps Republicans in retaking the middle of the road, but Schwartz did note frustration from his former BFFs in Muth-land and NPRI.

And speaking of Muth, he's acting like a scorned lover (and quoting me!) in his rebuke of Roberson's rebuke of Grover Norquist. And earlier last week, he dared to go there in calling out Roberson's flip-flop on the sunset taxes. But ultimately, his anger is being directed at Sandoval for making permanent his flip-flop on the sunset taxes. Both Roberson and Sandoval may be leaving the "tea party" high and dry, but will Muth & Co. let them get away with it? Remember that there are a number of hot GOP primaries in Legislature races across the state. And no attempt at spinning the sunset extension as just another take on "no new taxes" will be enough to stop Nevada's arm of "Tea Party, Inc." from gathering more pledges and running scorched earth primaries. As we've talked about before, the Nevada Republican Party in 2012 holds Sharron Angle in much higher regard ("SHE'S PURE!!!") than Kenny Guinn ("He was LIB'RUL!!!") or Bill Raggio ("He was also LIB'RUL!!!"), so we'll see if "the base" reacts kindly to Sandoval's sunset switch-er-roo.

And considering the base reaction (pun intended?) to Sandoval's announcement, just what will actually happen in the Legislature next year? As we discussed last month, it largely depends on who controls the State Senate chambers. In fact, I still suspect that even after Sandoval's move, a Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson would have to do a whole lot of heavy lifting just to get Sandoval's budget passed.

But if Democrats retain the Senate majority, and especially if the Senate Democratic caucus grows this year, Sandoval will have fewer opportunities to work with the G-O-TEA faction in the Legislature for some sort of deal that exchanges the 2009 tax deal extension for more "tea party" legislation being enacted. Instead, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Caucus that's had to pay more attention to the growing chorus in favor of bold, progressive tax reform. In fact, David Schwartz had another Sun article today on the painful reality of recent state budget cuts.

A 1-year-old with Down syndrome had his every-other-week physical therapy cut in half after the state told his parents there wasn’t money for more frequent sessions.

The state would not pay for a 2-year-old with speech and cognitive disabilities to see therapists more than twice a month. Again officials cited the battered state budget.

A 2-year-old with Down syndrome had her sign language lessons and occupational and physical therapy appointments reduced by half. And instead of being seen at home, her parents take her to a clinic.

These cases and others, detailed in a complaint against the state, triggered an internal state investigation last month. Together they reveal a troubling fact about the impact of Nevada’s austere budget: Services to the state’s youngest children are being curtailed and sometimes not provided at all because of a lack of funds.

About 250 children, from newborns to 3-year-olds, are on waiting lists for such services. For the 2,447 children who are in the state’s program, plans for therapy are often limited, the investigation found. The complaint was brought by the Nevada Disability Advocacy and Law Center.

Now remember, Brian Sandoval is only talking about "flattening" the budget. He doesn't want to restore what was cut in 2009 and 2011. But as our population grows and social service caseloads remain high (due to the continued aftershocks of "The Great Recession"), "flattening" is far from enough to keep up with what our state actually needs.

This is why Sandoval's shift on the sunsets probably won't dampen calls to reform Nevada's tax code. We'll have to wait and see which petitions go out for which initiatives, but it's still looking likely we'll see signature gathering outside our local grocery stores soon.

And in the mean time, there will be pressure on Democrats not to give into Sandoval so easily and so soon. We're about to see a spirited primary contest in the new SD 1 because John Lee often strengthened Republicans' hands in Carson City (by often breaking away from Democratic ranks at the most inopportune time). And if this primary challenge catches fire, Sheila Leslie's campaign gains steam in SD 15, and SD 9 changes hands, it may just be "the perfect storm" that may really test Sandoval's ability to stay in the middle of the road.

So even though Brian Sandoval may not be on the ballot this year, he still looks to play a large role in this year's election. How he navigates the early stage of the budget process can affect what happens this year. And what happens in the election this year will ultimately determine how Sandoval will govern next year.

SD 1: John Lee Gets a Primary Challenge. And I Honestly Didn't Know About It.

Honestly, I did NOT know this was coming. When I was at Stonewall on Wednesday to listen to John Lee discuss his experience in the Legislature and answer questions about his record, I had no clue that Southern Nevada Stonewall's new Vice-chair was preparing to challenge him in the Democratic Primary in the new SD 1.

And now, it looks like Senate Democrats are in for a real Battle Royale. On one side, the Senate Caucus will have to decide how to defend John Lee in the primary. He is the incumbent, after all, and the caucus typically favors incumbents first.

But on the other hand, a number of progressive activists will probably be jumping behind Pat Spearman. Considering his past votes on matters of LGBTQ equality, the environment, education, and more, the grassroots left hasn't ever had a very good relationship with Lee. Tensions have been rising in the last few legislative sessions, so perhaps this was bound to happen at some point.

I'm sure there will be talk of how this affects the Senate Caucus. The fact of the matter is that this is how the ("small d") democratic process works. Primaries happen. And if Pat Spearman didn't do this, someone else might have announced.

Still, I just hope folks on both sides of this emerging divide remember to look at the bigger picture. Regardless of what happens in this primary, there's a big election coming in November. And not only is partisan control at stake, but so are the environment, workers' rights, education, LGBTQ equality, tax reform, and so much more.

I honestly didn't even know about this until Jon Ralston tweeted it. And I had no clue on Wednesday that this was going to happen. I'm confident that Stonewall will be fair in its endorsement process, as no endorsements have even been issued yet. I just hope that the larger progressive activist base will really think this through and make sure that whatever happens in this primary doesn't harm larger efforts to make a positive impact on the Legislature in this fall's election.

Dancing at the Center of It All

This morning, we discussed the growing presence of Koch Industries in Nevada higher education. Does anyone wonder why this is happening? As we've been starving higher ed in the state budget, they've become more desperate to find new sources of revenue.

That's why it was interesting to see Brian Sandoval pull out his big surprise in factoring an extension of the 2009 tax deal into his proposed 2013 budget. He actually said he wanted to "avoid further cuts to education". Wow. So now Sandoval cares about school funding?

Wait a minute. Sandoval just appointed a new state school Superintendent who thinks reducing investment in public education can be a good thing. There's something else at play. Anjeanette Damon is now noticing the political game being played here.

The centrist approach from some Republican leaders comes as the party fights to take control of the state Senate and signals that the GOP believes it has a better shot of accomplishing that by rejecting the more strident anti-tax position that has opened a rift in the party. [...]

Ironically, it also came the same day Grover Norquist, a leading national anti-tax activist, referred to Sandoval as a “poster child for why a written tax pledge is important” because of Sandoval’s decision last year to reverse his position against the sunset taxes.

“Sandoval said he wouldn’t raise taxes but did,” Norquist said.

Two years ago, several Republicans, including Roberson, won Senate seats by digging in against taxes and signing Norquist’s anti-tax pledge. This year, however, the Republican caucus has recruited candidates with a more centrist view on taxes.

“We are vulnerable to being cast as the party who wants to decimate education, isn’t reasonable and doesn’t want to do this or that,” said one Republican lawmaker. “This can take some of the wind out of those sails.”

So Republican leaders in Carson City now realize that their G-O-TEA positioning did nothing to help them last year. All of a sudden, they're now running to the center. After all their crowing about their "tea party" mandate of 2010, Nevada Republicans now seem to be abandoning their formerly beloved teabagger base in a naked ploy to increase their power in Carson City next year.

Crazy, I tell you.

But wait, there's more. Anjeanette Damon noted the other side of this move, which is what we saw yesterday.

Sandoval’s move also appears aimed at heading off both continual calls by Democrats for a tax increase and any potential support for ballot measures seeking a tax increase.

In his statement proposing an extension of the 2009 tax increases, Sandoval was clear that he would not be seeking any another tax increase to fund services when he hands his budget to lawmakers next year. [...]

Extending the temporary tax increases would give Sandoval another $600 million for education and other services.

But Democrats decried Sandoval’s decision to forgo a debate on long-term fixes to the state’s tax structure, which is overly reliant on volatile revenue from the gaming and tourism industries.

“Does it make sense to put everything off for another two years instead of working together to find a long-term solution?” Sen. Mo Denis, D-Las Vegas, said. “There are different ways to look at revenue that could be revenue-neutral but in the long run would provide what we need for education. We just need to look at those issues.”

That's the other goal of Sandoval's shift. He's hoping to stifle discussion of bold, progressive tax reform by making us think everything is hunky-dory and there's no need whatsoever to change our outdated tax code. Hey, why worry about future funding woes when we can all just celebrate the $600 million we can keep in schools next year? Now mind you, Sandoval is only talking about maintaining funding at current levels. And we're supposed to be happy with that?

While it's nice to see that Brian Sandoval and Michael Roberson finally admit that we can't afford to cut school funding any more, they still don't want to admit that the current level of investment isn't good enough to improve PreK-16 public education in this state. After all, is it really healthy for UNLV and UNR to flirt with the Koch clan for their dirty "grant money" (with tons of "tea party" ideological strings attached)? And is it really healthy to keep underfunding K-12 classrooms and force teachers to buy supplies out of their own pockets while classrooms across Clark County continue to overflow (violating the class size reduction law that's supposed to be enforced)?

I get it. Brian Sandoval finally gets to burnish his "moderate" credentials by bucking Grover Norquist & Chuck Muth (somewhat) and taking preliminary action to prevent further deep cuts to Nevada schools. That's good. (No really, it is!) At least there's a good chance that our education crisis won't worsen.

However, that doesn't change the fact that our education crisis exists. And no, "moderating" it isn't good enough. We need to fix it. And we need bold action to do so.

Hopefully, Nevada voters will realize this fall that "moderately" stabilizing the situation isn't good enough. Nevada's budget is still a hot mess, Nevada's schools still need to be restored and healed, and Nevada still needs bold, progressive solutions that lift us out of this hole and up to a stronger and more diversified economy. Perhaps Brian Sandoval sees an opportunity to seize the ground Kenny Guinn stood upon by rejecting the extremist G-O-TEA elements of his own Republican Party. Now, Sandoval just needs to dust off Guinn's ideas for tax reform and allow for an honest conversation on investing in Nevada's future to take center stage.

Farewell, Mr. Raggio.

Wow. Just wow. I wasn't ready for this.

Bill Raggio, a former Washoe County District Attorney who became the longest-serving state senator in Nevada history, as died.

Raggio was 85 and died at 10 p.m. Pacific time of a respiratory illlness. He was in Sydney, Australia at the time.

“With the death of Sen. Bill Raggio, one of the great lights in the world of Nevada politics has gone out,” said Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval.

A Reno native, Raggio served 16 years as Washoe County District Attorney. He was elected to the state senate in 1972 and served there until resigning for health reasons in 2010.

He developed a reputation as a master of the legislative process, a tough negotiator and a champion for education and Norther Nevada interests.

I still can't believe Bill Raggio is gone. It seems like he's been a part of Nevada politics forever. He was a stalwart conservative and unshakable Republican. He ran against legendary US Senator Howard Cannon (D) in 1970, and he tried to succeed Harry Reid as Lieutenant Governor and win that seat for the Republicans in 1974.

Yet when it came to governance, he knew how to bend to prevent the government from breaking. And no one who was familiar with Raggio in the 1970s would have guessed that he'd endorse Harry Reid for US Senate in 2010. While Raggio was a stalwart conservative and unshakable Republican, he nonetheless considered himself a Nevadan, and particularly a Renoite and Northern Nevadan, first. He ultimately wanted to do what was best for the state, so this prominent conservative lawmaker was considered "moderate" in later years simply because he was willing to compromise to get the job done. Sadly, he was even attacked by the "tea party" loons in his own party because he was willing to compromise to get the job done.



I remember what we discussed here early last year, when Raggio decided he couldn't take any more of what he was seeing in Carson City.

So I guess he really couldn't stomach another session in Carson City. He is getting older, he does have health issues, and the tension there clearly has been wearing on him...

But obviously, there's more to this story. While conservative, Raggio was never seen as ideologically "pure" by the teabaggers. He did support tax increases when it meant more money for Northern Nevada. He sparred often with tea-nut icons like Sharron Angle and Jim Gibbons. And of course, he endorsed Harry Reid last year.

Oh, and he committed "heresy" yet again when he stated the obvious on this year's budget.

So what happens next? We'll have to see. Bill Raggio has forgotten more Nevada history and Nevada politics than the teabaggers will ever know.

It really wasn't that long ago when Raggio and then Governor Kenny Guinn (R) were actually discussing serious policy solutions on thorny matters like taxes and public education. Now, all we hear from the G-O-TEA are empty platitudes and Grover Norquist pledges. Even though it shouldn't have shocked us, many were nonetheless shocked when Raggio was ousted as Senate Republican Caucus leader right after the 2010 election (when the GOP gained a seat under his leadership!). But even after that happened, Raggio's shadow still loomed prominently in the halls of the Legislature's building. Without a doubt, Raggio made an impact on Nevada government that can't easily be rivaled.

And Raggio's legacy isn't limited to Carson City.



Yes, he was really Frank Sinatra's attorney. Wow.

Without a doubt, Bill Raggio was one of those colorful characters and storied politicians that one can only find in Nevada. Sure, I didn't always agree with what he did. But when it came to protecting Nevada's best interest, and especially when it came to fighting for Northern Nevada, Bill Raggio could always be counted on. He will be sorely missed.

Kelli Ross Jumps Into SD 18. Who's Angered More by This?

Buoyed by improving poll numbers for President Obama and the Democratic Party nationally, as well as a ton of bad news for Michael Roberson and his Senate Republican Caucus closer to home, Nevada Democrats are feeling more upbeat lately about the upcoming election and what it will do to change the balance of power in Carson City. Now it feels like we may be approaching "The Perfect Storm". Senate District 18 hadn't really been on the top of pundits' lists of hot #NVLeg races, mainly because of its recent voting record... But this may cause that to change immediately.

I was educated in Las Vegas public schools, and I met my husband Steve in the 3rd grade. I spent 20 years in the casino industry, working in various management positions in advertising and marketing. Then in 1998, my family took our own shot at the "American Dream," opening a small family owned electrical contracting company that created good-paying jobs with benefits.

But like hundreds of other Las Vegas businesses, our family business, our employees and their dreams were shattered by the worst recession in half a century. But seeing the business closed never stopped me and my family from giving back to the community.

My credentials as a community advocate are extensive. I coached little league baseball, served as a scout leader, and I'm an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, and have been a mentor/leader to young women.

As a businesswoman, I'm the Past Nevada Chairwoman of the Women Business Enterprise Council, former member of the Southern Nevada Chapter of National Electrical Contractors Association, and have also been a member of the Better Business Bureau.

I'm running for State Senate District 18 because it is time we had someone who will stand up to the partisan bickering and fight to get things done. I've owned a small business. I understand the challenges of this economy and my family has been hit hard like most Las Vegans. I know first-hand the difficulties that job creators are facing in this difficult economy. And as a mother and grandmother, I know the importance of a first class public education system, to prepare our residents for the jobs of tomorrow, and to grow and diversify our economy. A family woman and a business woman, I've learned the art of balancing priorities and getting things done.

Oh, yes. That's right. Kelli Ross, wife of current Las Vegas Ward 6 Council Member Steve Ross (who just survived his own recall election earlier this month), is now jumping into the political world herself and running as a Democrat in SD 18.

Now one would think Democrats would get quite excited about this development. After all, this forces Republicans to play defense in yet another district that they had been counting on winning. Now that the vacant SD 9 seat in the southwestern Las Vegas suburbs leans Democratic after redistricting, and now that Sheila Leslie and Greg Brower will be duking it out in the new SD 15 seat in western Reno, Republicans will have much more of an uphill battle in their effort to retake the Senate.

So why did "Mr. Gleaner" rip into a tirade against Kelli Ross on his new KSNV (Vegas NBC) show today? Take another look at that R-J article I linked to above. Kelli Ross called herself "very conservative" and "not partisan". And considering her husband's tendency to embrace extreme anti-equality bigots, show a frightening lack of knowledge on the big issues of the day, and not even try to show interest in smart local policy, some progressives are already afraid of how similar Kelli may be to Steve.

So obviously, a lot of folks already have a whole lot of questions about this new development in SD 18. What will Kelli Ross say about our broken tax code? How will she approach matters of investment in public education? Will she be more open to Southern Nevada's LGBTQ community? And can she juggle all of this while still managing to defeat Scott Hammond or Richard MacArthur in the general election?

Honestly, I'm still trying to make sense of all of this myself. On one hand, I actually am excited that Roberson & Co. will be forced to play defense in yet another district that they wrongly assumed would be a "gimme". And come on, would a "Majority Leader Michael Roberson" be beneficial to pro-equality efforts, progressive tax reform, or investment in our public infrastructure in any way, shape, or form?

However, I can't simply dismiss genuine policy concerns about Ross just because of partisan interests. Yes, more Democrats in Carson City may be helpful... But so will better Democrats. And considering the Ross' recent history, there may be plenty of reasons to doubt whether Ross will be able to stand with progressives on any of our major policy priorities. So perhaps we'll just have to see how the SD 18 race develops... And whether progressive voters in Northwest Las Vegas will have to hold their noses to improve the situation in Carson City.

#NVLeg: Halseth's Gone & Leslie's Moved On... What's Next?

I'm quite sure I know what you're thinking. Now that Elizabeth Halseth is out, what happens next in Senate District 9 in Southern Nevada? Let me do my best to explain what's to come.

First, we have filing. And from what I've heard, it's too late for anyone currently living outside the new district boundaries to move in and campaign here. SD 9 has now been compacted to just the Southwest Vegas suburbs of Summerlin South (south of Red Rock Country Club), the western edge of Spring Valley, and the Enterprise communities of Mountain's Edge, Rhodes Ranch, and Southern Highlands. Sorry, aspiring carpetbaggers.

And so far, everything I heard Friday afternoon still stands. The new district boundaries will indeed be used in the special election, and the SD 9 special election will follow the same schedule as the other regularly scheduled Legislature elections. This means filing will be open until March 16, then the primary will occur on June 12. And of course, this also means SD 9 will ultimately be decided in the general election on November 6.

And so far, the same schedule looks to be in place for the Senate District 13 special election in Northern Nevada triggered by Sheila Leslie's big move to Senate District 15. The new SD 13 (formerly Washoe Senate 1) contains mostly the urban core of Reno and Sparks, while the new SD 15 (formerly Washoe Senate 3) takes in a large portion of Western Washoe County from White Lake to Sun Valley to Northwest Reno to Mount Rose.

Now that Sheila Leslie will be running in SD 15, Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) announced yesterday that she will run to fill the vacancy in SD 13.

“Northern Nevadans need strong representatives they can count on to get the job done,” Smith said in a statement. “While I believe there are some very promising signs that things are beginning to get better in our state, we have a long way to go. I am running for the state Senate to continue fighting for a better education system, a healthier economy, and a more efficient and effective government for Nevada. After spending the past few days talking with family, friends and community members, I feel this is the right decision at the right time.”

Leslie resigned her Senate Distrct 1 seat effective immediately Wednesday and plans to run against state Sen. Greg Brower, R-Reno, in Senate District 15.

District 1, which encompasses portions of Reno and Sparks, becomes District 13 in this election cycle after redistricting. The district has a solid Democratic edge in registered voters, about 18 percent. Leslie won election by 30 points in 2010, and former state Sen. Bernice Mathews, D-Reno, held the seat for 16 years before term limits ended her legislative career.

Now as the RGJ article quoted above states, not too much is really at stake in SD 13. It's still a heavily Democratic district. And as long as no other strong Democrat emerges to challenge Debbie Smith in the primary, then expect to see Senator Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) making waves in the next legislative session (next year).

No, the real battle will be farther west in SD 15. And down south, SD 9 will join SD 5 (Henderson-Green Valley), SD 6 (Las Vegas-Summerlin), and SD 18 (Northwest Las Vegas) in determining control of the Nevada State Senate. If Republicans win at least 4 of these 5 seats, then they take over the Senate. But if Democrats manage to sweep all 5 of these races, then Nevada Dems will finally reach the magic 2/3 number to secure a veto-proof supermajority and relegate Michael Roberson (and his extreme "tea party" agenda) to the sidelines.

This is why Roberson is so scared now. And this is why the "big bid'ness" establishment will be forking out big checks to the likes of Greg Brower and Steve Kirk (a GOP candidate in SD 5). Again, as we've been saying here for a while (and Jon Ralston has admitted on Twitter), Republican hopes of flipping the Senate have diminished greatly in the last 100 hours. However, they still intend to go all in for the #NVLeg campaign just for the sake of saving enough seats to obstruct any kind of progressive agenda in the 77th session.

So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better. So remember not to "stop at the top"... Keep going down that ballot and vote for progress.

BREAKING: Elizabeth Halseth WILL Resign!

This just in!

State Sen. Elizabeth Halseth, R-Las Vegas, resigned her office today, citing personal reasons, according to the senate Republican caucus.

Her resignation will place on the ballot a seat that favors Democrats, putting another obstacle in the way of Republicans' goal of taking control of the state Senate, where Democrats have an 11-10 advantage.

Halseth's resignation comes after Democratic lawmakers complained she had not been attending meetings or returning phone calls.

Halseth and her husband, Daniel, are getting a divorce. Her husband was arrested last year on "gross and open lewdness" charges.

My, oh my. I guess Elizabeth Halseth (and Michael Roberson) couldn't keep this ridiculous charade going for any longer. And I guess they couldn't handle the heat heading their way on this.

And this isn't just a win for Nevada Democratic strategists. This is a win for Nevadans, period. No Nevadan deserves to go unrepresented. And yes, that's what was happening while Halseth was AWOL and avoiding her professional duties as a Nevada legislator.

Now, voters in Senate District 9 will have a chance to elect someone who's genuinely interested in doing the job. Congratulations.

UPDATE, 3:50 PM-

I just spoke with a knowledgeable source who explained to me the process going forward:

- Brian Sandoval will appoint a placeholder to fulfill the duties of District 9's Senator for the rest of the 2012 interim.

- And in November, a special election will be held for SD 9 under the NEW boundaries. This means SD 9 will be a more Democratic leaning seat and a prime pickup opportunity for Nevada Democrats.

Wow. Just wow. Nevada Republicans just blew it... Again.

UPDATE, 4:10 PM-

In case you missed it, the Secretary of the Nevada Senate was first in posting Halseth's resignation letter. You can read it here. I'm loving her line on blaming her apparently not-so-good "prospects for employment" here in Nevada on "selfish partisans and a handful of reckless bloggers".

You're welcome, soon-to-be-ex-Senator Halseth! No seriously, I was never out to hurt her "prospects for employment" or harm her quality of life in any way, shape, or form. I only wanted for her constituents to get the kind of representation and service that they deserve.

Oh, and her line attacking President Obama for her personal woes is so "Klassy". Keep it "Klassy", Elizabeth Halseth.

UPDATE, 4:35 PM-

I wonder if Ralston stands by his prediction made on Twitter yesterday:

If I'm right and Halseth resigns, entire state Senate dynamic has gone, IMHO, from lean GOP to lean Dem. Wouldn't that be something? #nvleg

Yes, it is! And again, this is Michael Roberson's worst nightmare come true. Between this and Sheila Leslie giving Greg Brower a real run for his money (literally!) in the new SD 15 in Reno, his chances of becoming Senate Majority Leader have greatly diminished... And Nevadans tired of "tea party" insanity wreaking havoc on Nevada's government rejoice.

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;-)

Finding (the Story Behind) Elizabeth Halseth (Gone Missing)

Yesterday, I was alerted to a dossier on the Elizabeth Halseth scandal penned by... None other than Chuck Muth. Yes, believe it or not, Chuck Muth wrote a surprisingly balanced and detailed history of Halseth's political rise, as well as the origin of her likely fall from power.

Frankly, it was bizarre to read a Muth document that sheds more light on the Halseth affair than everything I've read from "the mainstream media". Hey, I have to give credit where credit is due. Kudos to Muth for being willing to spill the beans on this situation.

After reading Muth's dossier, here are just a few of the many questions I have:

- Why didn't anyone from any of Nevada's major media outlets report on the presence of Halseth's boyfriend, Tiger Helgelien, at the arrest of her husband, Daniel?

- Why didn't anyone else notice that Tiger Helgelien has family in Alaska, where Halseth has been rumored to have relocated?

- Why hasn't anyone else noticed Tiger Helgelien's early efforts to set up a Legislature campaign for this cycle (with the help of none other than Daniel Halseth)?

- And why didn't anyone bother to talk to Daniel Halseth about this?

On October 21, Daniel Halseth was arrested for an alleged domestic dispute involving his wife. Eight hours after his arrest, he was charged with “open and gross lewdness”. In the police report, Daniel accused his wife of having an affair, while she acknowledged that they were having “marital problems”. The police arrested Daniel because Elizabeth accused him of touching her inappropriately during an argument about the affair. Daniel denies that allegation. Either way, their perfect little world was about to come crumbling down.

In a December report authored by Chuck Muth, a political blogger, he states, according to the Las Vegas Criminal Defense blog that open and gross lewdness is “one of the more frequently falsely-accused offenses because police don’t need physical proof to make an arrest, and people may play the victim card out of revenge.” In the same report, Muth accuses Sen. Halseth of making similar claims against other male victims over the past 10 years.

So, you see, it turns out Daniel Halseth was right. His wife was having an affair with former golf professional, now real estate salesman, Tiger Helgelien. To make matters worse, Helgelien, who grew up in Alaska, was involved with Elizabeth’s election campaign, and Daniel built Helgelien’s website. In addition, rumors have it that Daniel was helping Helgelien raise funds for his own political campaign. Needless to say, Daniel has been devastated.

Major kudos must go to whatever this site is for reporting a side of this story that no one else has really talked about.

Obviously, Elizabeth Halseth is leaving behind a messy personal life that Senate Republicans are trying to quietly sweep under the rug. And while I typically don't like probing into politicians' personal lives, I feel obligated to talk about something that hardly anyone else (with the notable exception of Chuck Muth) is willing to discuss.

In 2010, Elizabeth Halseth became a State Senator thanks to attacking others' personal lives. Her campaign attacked Dennis Nolan over being called to testify at someone else's criminal trial. And after the Republican primary, she then attacked Benny Yerushalmi in the general election over ridiculous material like his wife's outfits! So considering this context, I've come to accept that it's perfectly appropriate to note Halseth's total hypocrisy on making other's private lives public... Before she flees over her own private life.

And not only that, but Halseth is now using her private life as an excuse not to fulfill her public duties. Why won't she show up at interim committee hearings any more? Why won't she answer constituent emails? And why has her cell phone been shut off? Hello, Elizabeth Halseth is still listed as a Nevada State Senator for the 9th District! She has an obligation to her constituents to finish the job she was elected to do. And for Michael Roberson to try to shut down questions on her whereabouts just because of his own political ambition is downright reprehensible. He may be afraid of losing his shot at becoming Majority Leader, but fulfilling one's public duties should always come above fueling someone else's political ambition.

Is it really that hard for Roberson to ask Daniel Halseth and Tiger Helgelien if they know where Elizabeth Halseth, his fellow Senator, is? And is it really that hard for him to ask her to either fulfill her duties or prepare to resign?

I just find it funny that the party of legislating private morality can't practice what they preach. And they still don't seem to understand the meaning of public morality. Tiger Helgelien is not an elected official, so he has every right to drop his campaign and return quietly to private life. However Elizabeth Halseth was elected in 2010, so she needs to answer questions from her constituents, and she needs to either return to her job or resign from this office.