New #NVLeg Assembly Race Ratings

Now that we talked about the Senate, it's time to check on the Assembly. Oh yes, that's right. We also have new #NVLeg race ratings there as well. And now that the primary is over, we have a better sense of what to expect this fall.

When we last checked on the Assembly in March, it looked like plenty of change was in store, even as the partisan numbers weren't. So has that changed since then? We'll find out below.

Clark County

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 58%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

There was never any suspense about the primary... And I'm starting to wonder how much we'll see in the general. "Tea Party" Republican Michelle Fiore started her fundraising well, and it's starting to look like Democrat Ken Evans isn't keeping up. He will need plenty of resources to flip this seat, even if Fiore is... Well, crazy.

AD 5
Spring Valley/Las Vegas- Peccole Ranch
Nested into SD 8

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Since our last report, it looks like Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop has doubled down... And brought in some friends to go all in for her. While Republican challenger Bill Harrington did coast past his primary, he hasn't raised much $. And with the exception of "Tea Party, Inc." power player Monte Miller coming in to help him, it's looking like the rest of Nevada's key "business establishment" power players are betting on Dondero Loop.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

As expected, Democrat Andrew Martin easily sailed through his primary. However, Republicans are a little embarrassed over their star recruit, Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman, narrowly losing the GOP primary to "some dude" Clay Hurst. And not only is Hurst "some dude", but he's "some dude" who hasn't even filed a C&E (contribution and expense) report! Now, Martin just needs good Democratic turnout this fall to seal the deal. And considering all the field work that will be done for John Oceguera and Justin Jones (AD 9 also overlaps NV-03), that shouldn't be too much of a problem.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas
Nested into SD 21

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic

This is probably the last time you see AD 12 on the scoreboard. Though James Ohrenschall initially ran into trouble when his district shed some of heavily Democratic (and Latino) East Las Vegas to pick up heavily Republican (and wealthy and white) Lake Las Vegas, it now looks like he will live on for another term. His Republican opponent, Bridgette Bryant, has so far raised $1,350 total! Once again, Nevada Republican ineptitude looks to be saving another Nevada Democrat.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills
Nested into SD 18

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Tossup

While the Assembly GOP Caucus must be relieved that Paul Anderson survived a "TEA" fueled primary challenge from Leonard Foster, they still can't rest easy here. Lou DeSalvio won the Democratic Primary, and he's been "packing heat" in his fundraising. And since both he and Kelli Ross (who's running for Senate here) are moderates with the strong potential for crossover appeal, Anderson and his Republican Establishment backers will have to work to lock down this seat.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson
Nested into SD 12

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 50%
Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

On paper, this should be a very competitive district. And while I still suspect Crescent Hardy is just too conservative for this district, he may just be able to slip through the cracks due to a lack of due diligence on the part of the Assembly Democratic Caucus. Felipe Rodriguez has hardly raised any money, and it's unclear as to what kind of field he's doing. And while there are many Democratic strongholds in the new AD 19, they have to be worked hard to get the kind of turnout that one regularly sees in the rock solid Republican parts of the district that Crescent Hardy is counting on to win another term.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

For now, both party establishments are happy. Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed Andy Eisen and Assembly Republican Caucus endorsed Becky Harris won their respective primaries, so it's now game on for those two in the general. Both live in Silverado Ranch, both are prodigious fundraisers, and both have great looking resumes. While Harris probably won't make this an easy pickup for Democrats, I still sense the partisan leanings of the new AD 21 give Eisen at least a bit of an edge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) got a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson
Nested into SD 5

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

At first, incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson) seemed destined to reach the top of "The Endangered Legislators List", as her district was shifted to the right in redistricting. And when famous "The Gun Store" owner Bob Irwin decided to jump in and challenge Mastroluca, I honestly didn't know what to expect next.

Yet while GOP money men Sheldon Adelson and Monte Miller have cut checks for Irwin, his fundraising is falling seriously behind Mastroluca's (who's already raised over $85,000 so far and has her own power players backing her up). And other than his hideous looking roadside signs, I haven't seen any field work on his behalf. Mastroluca, on the other hand, has become an expert in maximizing her ground game to win close elections.

While she's far from out of the woods, April Mastroluca may soon find a path back to the promised land (of another term in Carson City).

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands
Nested into SD 9

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

On the Democratic side, there was little drama as Assembly Caucus endorsed James Healey won the primary. However on the Republican side, "tea party" backed "some dude" Tom Blanchard scored a surprising upset victory over Establishment backed (and son of recently failed NV-04 candidate Barbara Cegavske) Adam Cegavske. Consider this another G-O-TEA Primary FAIL that may very well come back to bite Nevada Republicans.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest
Nested into SD 6

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 48%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 55%
R Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

However, Marcus Conklin isn't making this easy for Duncan and Assembly GOP Leadership. While the $45,000 that Duncan has raised so far would be respectable in a normal race, Conklin has already piled up over $220,000 (!!!!!) and has lined up almost the entire "gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" (basically, everyone but Monte Miller and Sheldon Adelson) behind him. Still, we'll have to wait and see if the law of diminishing marginal returns kicks in. Will Conklin be able to pay for the kind of phenomenal outreach he'll most definitely need to win reelection, or will Duncan be able to turn this around and run against a "corrupt insider incumbent"?

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills
Nested into SD 20

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village
Nested into SD 16

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 47%
Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 62%
R Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. And even worse, he's raised very little $ so far.

Unless Washoe Democrats run into a miracle soon, this is probably the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Lemmon Valley/Sparks- Shadow Mountain
Nested into SD 14

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 49%
Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 59%
R Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well? So far he's outraised Espinosa by about 2-1, he's working the field hard on his own, and he can count on state party field work (for Obama and Shelley Berkley) to turn out more Democratic voters for him as well.

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---

Since March, the number of true Tossup races has shrunken. On one hand, Republicans have gained more of an upper hand in securing 4 and flipping 19, Democrats have gained more of an edge in holding 5, 12, and 29, as well as in winning the new 9. So here's the new list of the hottest Assembly races, listed in order of likelihood of Democratic win.

41 (Hold)
35 (Flip)
29 (Hold)
21 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
31 (Hold)
37 (Hold)
13 (Flip)
4 (Flip)
19 (Hold)

If the election were today, I'd draw the line after 31. This would mean Republicans gain 19 and 37... And knock out the very person Democrats thought would be the next Speaker. Ouch!

However, Republicans shouldn't get too giddy. After all, this also means Democrats gain 20 (a safe pickup), 9, 35, and 21, which is all Team Blue needs to reach the magic #28 needed for a 2/3 supermajority! While Assembly Democrats may be embarrassed over losing their Speaker-in-waiting, others may be happy just to be back at the sweet spot of 2/3. This would mean a net gain of 2 seats for Democrats.

Thanks, Pat Hickey... But Where Were You Last Year?

How many times have we talked about the endless culture of corruption in Carson City? And how many times have we suffered in agony as politicians and media pundits played petty blame games while ignoring the real solution to this problem? Nevada has endured an ongoing merry-go-round of corruption in state government since... Well, really since we first became a state!

So are we now ready for real change? And will this change be led by a conservative Republican who's next in line to lead the Assembly Republican Caucus next year? This just seems too good to be true.

Assembly Republican leader Pat Hickey, R-Reno, made swings in Carson City and Las Vegas on Monday, touting his ideas to beef up campaign finance reporting requirements.

Flanked by Assembly Republicans and candidates for office, he pitched five bullet points that he said should be a top priority when the Legislature next meets in 2013, including reporting contributions in real time, requiring candidates to report ending fund balances, and reporting trips and gifts from lobbyists and donors when the Legislature is not in session.

But many of the ideas have been proposed before, only to die with little evidence of who did the deed.

While the Legislature passed reform last year that requires electronic filing and allows reports to be searched — what Miller called “the most significant campaign finance reforms passed in state history" — lawmakers shied away from stiffer measures.

This really does look like a great idea and a nice way to bring some real campaign finance reform to Nevada. So yes, I appreciate Pat Hickey's proposal and his newfound zeal to change the way this state is governed. And yes, I really do mean it.

However, I must still ask this: Why now? Why is Pat Hickey doing this now? Last I checked, the Legislature is not in session.

And as Former Senator and current Senate candidate Sheila Leslie noted in Anjeanette Damon's Sun article today, this is not the first time that the Legislature tried to tackle campaign finance reform.

“People in the system like the system the way it is,” Leslie, the bill’s sponsor, said Monday. “They like the status quo. They don’t see the need to change it.”

She added that, on the Assembly side, neither Republican nor Democratic leadership were helpful in pushing her bill for a vote.

“The animosity toward the bill came from both sides,” she said. “There was equal opportunity hostility to the bill.”

She called Assembly Republicans bringing forward this issue now “a little hypocritical” but said, “I welcome them to the transparency bandwagon.”

Sheila Leslie was referring to SB 206, her bill which would have required lobbyists to file reports on lobbying activity occurring when the Legislature is not in session. It actually passed unanimously in the Senate. But for some reason, it died in the Assembly. I wonder why?

Here's a hint: Take a look at the minutes of the hearing SB 206 received in the Assembly's Legislative Operations and Elections Committee. In particular, notice the hostile tone of several Assembly Members of both parties. When Pat Hickey had the chance to "carpe diem" and build on the strong bipartisan support that Leslie's pro-transparency bill earned in the Senate, he punted... And he pretty much joined his colleagues in showing deep hostility towards this bill.

Assemblyman Hickey:
You mentioned unpaid lobbyists. I assume one must pay a lobbying registration fee during the session. Do they then have to pay an additional fee during the interim?

Senator Leslie:
That would be something the Legislative Commission would have to set— whether it would be one fee every two years, an annual fee, or one fee during the session. This bill does not cover those types of decisions. Right now, a nonpaid veteran lobbyist pays nothing. A nonpaid lobbyist pays $20, and a paid lobbyist pays $300 for the session. I imagine the Legislative Commission would review those regulations and make that determination. I am not trying to make money with this bill. For the first time, we raised the lobbying fees significantly, and it was a revenue-generating act, but that is not my intent.

Assemblyman Hickey:
Lobbyists should report campaign contributions, so the point of this bill is obviously about transparency, but what perceived problem are you trying to address?

Senator Leslie:
What I have heard from my constituents is that there is a public perception that there is a lot of lobbying activity, and that lobbyists are paying for things for legislators such as golf games, fancy dinners, or whatever it might be. As a result, there is a lot of consternation that that activity is not reported. The public just wants to know. This is purely about sunshine. If it is so important that we have them report during session, I believe it is equally important that they also report out of session, when a lot of planning and legislative activity— interim committees or planning for the next session—happens. It is good government to have this kind of reporting. Most states do have year-round reporting, but of course most states meet more often than we do.

Assemblyman Hickey:
Mr. Murphy's [a Clark County lobbyist] house needs painting. Should I paint it? Is that something my business should report?

Senator Leslie:
No, it is not about you; it is about Mr. Murphy. If Mr. Murphy was the painter and was painting your house for free or giving you a discount, yes, that should be reported. It is not about you.

So why did Hickey say that then? And why is he trying to cast blame on everyone but himself for past failed reform efforts? He had a chance to champion SB 206 last year, when the Legislature was actually in session and something could have been done. Why did we wait until now to propose his reform package?

Again, I genuinely appreciate what Hickey is saying and doing now. This is exactly the kind of conversation that we need to have. However the Legislature is not in session now. We haven't even...

Oh wait, that's right! This is an election year. Ah yes, strange things happen in election years. All of a sudden, proposals that never saw the light of day suddenly become the campaign centerpiece as soon as they poll well. Now, I get it.

Meet the Candidates: Assembly District 21 (Eisen, Parke, & Wilkening)

On Wednesday, plenty of candidates came to the Henderson Democratic Club's April Legislature candidate night to razzle-dazzle local activists. In addition to hearing from two Assembly candidates running in District 20, we also heard from all three Democratic candidates running in District 21. Now remember, Mark Sherwood declined to run for reelection and AD 21 is one of the top pick-up opportunities for Assembly Democrats, so this is definitely a race the Democrats don't want to f**k up.





And hearing from the three candidates, it sounded like they wanted the room to know they had no intention of doing that.

Andy Eisen began by giving his personal background and saying why he wants to go to Carson City.



Steve Parke then gave his speech, which mixed his personal story with some hard policy... And it still came in under five minutes!



And finally, we heard from Rick Wilkening, who explained why he's stepping out of retirement to run for office.



In AD 21, we have three Democratic candidates who are all stepping out of private life to run for public office. All three now seem to be out in the field. All three seem serious about competing for the grand prize in November. And on Wednesday, all three had an opportunity to share with local voters and activists why they're running and what they want to do in Carson City next year.

Without a doubt, this is a seat that will be full of campaign activity all throughout the cycle! My neighbors here must be eager to meet these candidates at their doorsteps very soon. ;-)

Meet the Candidates: Assembly District 20 (Spiegel & Ivey)

The Henderson Democratic Club continued its great tradition of hosting candidate nights last night when we were greeted by mostly Legislature candidates all eager to introduce (or reintroduce) themselves to a room full of activists.







It was a long night, but certainly the kind of long night that political junkies can't get enough of. There was some "speechifying", but there were also some fascinating frank moments. And I figured I could at least do a good public service and provide some of the best highlights of the night here at the blog.

There were quite a few candidates who spoke last night, but I'll begin by highlighting the candidates in AD 20. Remember that this seat is unique in that's been uprooted from Boulder City & Mesquite, and moved to urban Paradise and North Henderson. This should be a safe Democratic pick-up this fall, so the action here will mostly be in the primary.

Since Gloria Bonaventura wasn't present at the forum last night, we just heard from State Assembly candidates Ellen Spiegel and Kent Ivey.

Ivey began the evening's program with an introduction. Apparently, he has quite the resume!



Spiegel was next, and she reminded the audience of her local ties. (She served as an Assembly Member from 2009-10.)



And then, the real fun began. Both candidates were asked about the state budget, but we saw different answers emerge. Here's Ellen Spiegel's response.



And here's Kent Ivey's.



Both sounded open to mining tax reform, and neither wanted to be completely pigeon holed. However, Ivey seems to be swinging out of right field with the sales tax hike. Weird. Meanwhile, Spiegel sounded more open to changing business taxes, which is quite interesting considering she's a small business owner herself and she previously represented a more Republican leaning swing district.

It looks like Democrats in AD 20 will be facing a tough choice. We'll have to see what happens in the next two months.

(And stay tuned tomorrow for more candidate info directly from the candidates.)

Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction, Part II

Yesterday, we took a fresh look at what's going on in a handful of critical Senate races this fall while also calling out a ridiculous election prediction from the local "newspaper". Today, our attention turns to the Assembly as we notice what's been happening since October. And yes, we'll again be noting why the "newspaper" got #NVLeg totally wrong.

So far all of the safe seats identified in October remain safe, so we'll save some time and only look at seats in play and/or likely to change hands. Here we go!

Clark County

AD 2
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

This will be the last time AD 2 is featured on this list, as Democrats failed to recruit anyone to run against John Hambrick. He gets a free ride back to Carson City, and Nevada Democrats blow a potential pick-up opportunity.

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Originally, it looked like Republicans would have a significant advantage in retaining this seat. However, plenty has changed since we last checked in October. For one, local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here.

So why am I upgrading this race to "Tossup" status? Simple. Local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here!



Thankfully for Nevada Democrats, they actually have a candidate running here. We'll have to see how serious Ken Evans' campaign is. But really, can any campaign involving Michelle Fiore be all that serious? If it weren't for the more conservative nature and slight GOP registration edge in this district, this would be an easy flip for Democrats. But even as is, Democrats have a better shot than ever before here.

AD 5
Las Vegas/Spring Valley- Peccole Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent Democratic Assembly Member Marilyn Dondero Loop remains one of the most endangered incumbents of this cycle simply because of the huge changes made to her district in redistricting. What had been a pretty safe Democratic West Side seat is now a thorny, swingy suburban district that Dondero Loop will most certainly have to work for to win again.

Now, it's just a question of how hard Bill Harrington and Nevada Republicans are willing to work to take this seat away from her.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Democrat Andrew Martin ran as an outsider for Assembly in 2008 in a more GOP leaning AD 13. However, he managed to shock most pundits by coming out of nowhere to get 49% against then incumbent Assembly Member Chad Christensen (R-Las Vegas). This time, he has the Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsement in a new Democratic leaning AD 9 comprising the once fast growing and now fast changing Southwest Vegas suburbs. And this time, the odds are much better for Martin to win.

Still, Andrew Martin must first clear the Democratic Primary. (Actually that shouldn't be too hard, since his primary opponent doesn't even have a web site.) Then, he'll be facing either Clayton Hurst or Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman in the general election. But again, considering the leftward shift of this district's politics in recent cycles, this shouldn't be too tough of a seat for Democrats to hold this year.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

Early on, it looked like James Ohrenschall might get a tough fight on his hands in the reconfigured AD 12. And while I still think it's a possibility, it's increasingly looking like a dwindling one. And with even the Assembly Republican Caucus ready to concede this race, this race may soon fall off the radar. Still, we'll keep a close eye on this one for now.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

The bad news for Nevada Democrats: This district shifted a bit to the right in redistricting.
The good news for Nevada Democrats: This district is still within reach.

Oh, and here's some more good news for @NVDems: GOP establishment favorite Paul Anderson is being challenged in the Republican Primary by "tea party" darling Leonard Foster. As we discussed earlier this month, the growing "Muth Caucus" led furor over Governor Sandoval's flip-flop on the sunset taxes may have the biggest impact here.

However, Democrats aren't without their own primary drama here. 2010 nominee Lou DeSalvio is running again, but this time he's being challenged in the primary by local activist and small business owner Leisa Moseley. So far it doesn't look to be as acrimonious as the primary situation on the other side, but we'll still have to see how bad their primary gets before determining if this becomes a top Democratic pick-up opportunity.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

In 2010, Crescent Hardy was fortunate enough to run in a super safe AD 20 that Republicans never had to think about defending. However in 2012, that's all about to change. The new AD 19 may still contain Hardy's hometown of Mesquite along with Republican friendly turf in Old Henderson, but it also picks up more Democratic friendly precincts around Nellis Air Force Base, resulting in a district with only about a 3% Republican registration edge, as well as a district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid won. Incumbent Steven Brooks (D-East Las Vegas) was also originally placed in this district, but he jumped to AD 17 to run in a safer district.

So we'll have to keep an eye on Felipe Rodriguez to see if he can do what no Democrat has done before.

AD 20
Paradise/Henderson: Sunset Park, Green Valley, Whitney Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 62%
McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 59%
John McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 51%
Brian Sandoval (R) 45%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic (Pick-up)

So whatever happened to AD 20? It got moved in redistricting from rural Clark County to the urban core of Paradise (aka "The East Side") and the older Green Valley North neighborhoods of Henderson. Without a doubt, this is the Assembly seat most likely to change hands this year. And without a doubt, the most action we'll see here will be in the Democratic Primary.

Nevada State Board of Education member Gloria Bonaventura, Former Assembly Member Ellen Spiegel, and local attorney and community activist Kent Ivey are all running in the Democratic Primary here. And again, whoever wins that primary is virtually assured of winning in the general.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

With current Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) stepping down and redistricting radically reshaping this district, AD 21 is also poised to deliver big changes this year. For one, it's dropped Green Valley Ranch to pick up Silverado Ranch. And in doing that, it's shifted from a typically Republican friendly district to a more Democratic leaning district and prime Democratic pick-up opportunity.

Perhaps that's why three Democrats are all vying for this seat: retired Carpenters Union official Rick Wilkening, Touro University dean Dr. Andy Eisen, and attorney, community activist, & "soccer dad" Steve Parke (disclaimer: he's also my neighbor). In addition, we'll likely see a battle royale in the Republican Primary here as Mark Sherwood endorsed attorney & "PTA mom" Becky Harris goes against Clark County Republican Party e-board representative and early "tea party" favorite Swadeep Nigam.

The general election should also be pretty competitive, but the recent political trends in Green Valley South and Silverado Ranch give Democrats the early advantage and the chance for another valuable pick-up. Becky Harris may not make it easy, but the resumes of both Andy Eisen and Steve Parke suggest they're up for the challenge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) is getting a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

Now this should be fun. Local "Gun Store" and "tea party" celebrity Bob Irwin is back (he ran against John Oceguera in the old AD 16 in 2010), but this time he's moving to Henderson to challenge incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson). Irwin has definitely gained plenty of media attention with his "Gun Store", but Mastroluca also earned her own reputation over the years as an involved parent and education activist. This may very well be a "battle of the heavyweights" that keeps us at the edge of our seats all year.

Certainly, AD 29 tipped to the right in redistricting as it shed some Democratic turf to the new AD 20 while picking up some Republican leaning neighborhoods from the old AD 21. Still, April Mastroluca has earned respect as a good campaigner. And considering her past victories over the more moderate Sean Fellows (2008) and Dan Hill (2010), it won't be easy for known "tea party" flame thrower Bob Irwin to unseat April Mastroluca in a Green Valley based district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid still carried.

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

Here's another prime pick-up opportunity for Nevada Democrats. Assembly Minority Pete Goicoechea (R-Eureka) has been representing this district, but he's moving onto the Senate... While his old Assembly District moves from rural Northern Nevada to Clark County and settles in some Southwest Vegas neighborhoods that may ultimately be more interested in sending a Democrat to Carson City.

Still, this isn't stopping Republican Adam Cegavske (yes, Barbara Cegavske's son!) from running here. However, his campaign isn't stopping real estate agent and "tea party" hopeful Tom Blanchard from running here as well. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, local attorney & community activist Nathan Sosa and MGM manager (he runs housekeeping at New York New York) & HRC Las Vegas Steering Committee Co-chair James Healey are running here.

Yet again, we have a wide open seat in "The Wild (South)West" attracting plenty of candidates. But ultimately, I suspect Democrats have the early edge here.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

Still, Marcus Conklin won't make this easy for Wesley Duncan. While his ties to mining lobbyists and gaming insiders may provide Duncan with prime "dirt" to use against Conklin on the campaign trail, they nonetheless provide Conklin with plenty of needed cash to pummel Duncan and respond to those attacks. Don't be surprised if this ends up as one of the ugliest #NVLeg races on record.

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 25
Reno- West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

No one even bothered to challenge Pat Hickey, so this is the last time you'll see this district on this list.

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. Maybe this is the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Sparks- Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well?

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---


All in all, it looks like we'll be seeing a whole lot of change in the Assembly next year. For all we know, the Assembly may even get an unexpected new Speaker next year, along with a whole lot of surprising seat flips in both directions. Like yesterday's Senate forecast, I'll rate the ten hottest Assembly races on the basis of most likely to change parties.

1. AD 20 (R to D)
2. AD 21 (R to D)
3. AD 35 (R to D)
4. AD 19 (D to R)
5. AD 37 (D to R)
6. AD 31 (D to R)
7. AD 4 (R to D)
8. AD 29 (D to R)
9. AD 5 (D to R)
10. AD 13 (R to D)

If the election were today, I'd stop the flipping at #6. This would mean Espinosa unseats Daly, Duncan unseats Conklin, and Hardy wins reelection, giving Republicans three pick-ups. However, this would also mean the Democrats win the trio of open seats previously held by Republicans, giving Democrats three pick-ups. So funny enough, in the end we get the same 26-16 split we had last session... Just in an odd way that includes interesting pick-ups and painful losses for both parties.

Assembly Republicans Afraid to "Face the Budget"

“I ask you and I beg of you to think about the people you serve,” Assemblywoman April Mastroluca, D-Henderson, said. “Tell them we worked together to come up with a compromise to do what we thought was best...” [...]

Republican lawmakers did their own fair share of browbeating, accusing Democrats of putting on a disingenuous show for the public.

“The compromise and what you want is convenient when we have a forum and you try to paint these guys as hating kids,” Assemblyman Mark Sherwood, R-Henderson, said. “This is a farce.”

Republicans have accused Democrats of refusing to come to the table to debate reform measures on their priorities — an accusation that is flat wrong, according to Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas.

“Let’s name the bills you wish to have available,” Oceguera replied to Sherwood. “I believe that the construction defect bill, I have that bill, it is still alive. A (public employee retirement) reform bill, it’s still alive. Prevailing wage, we have that bill. Still alive. Tell me your other reforms. I think I answered all these questions.”

So last night, The Assembly was stuck at a stalemate over the budget. Despite all the public hearings, all the negotiations over other legislation, and all the public and private pleas for compromise, Republicans just said no and just walked away.

I wonder if they would have done the same if the very people they and Brian Sandoval are threatening would have been there in person.

I guess they need more of this...





And more of your input! Please keep sending messages to your legislators. It may seem "pointless" at first glance, but it really isn't. Let me tell you why.

Ultimately, these legislators have to face "we the people" in their next election. And while in Carson, they have to keep a running tab on who's contacting them on what. They only know that we're here when we tell them, and they only feel the pressure to come to the table when we apply that pressure.

As we've talked about before, it's long past due for the greedy, tax-evading mining corporations and "mega-box" multinational corporations to pay their fair share after making us "endure the pain" all by ourselves for far too long. And as we've talked about before, we need to get involved and stay involved to make a difference. So don't give up. Make these Republican legislators come to the table!