Suppression v. Participation

In April 2012, then Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) threw a fit. For some reason, he felt compelled to troll Twitter during the Clark County Democratic Party Convention. And he decided one of his final acts as a state legislator would be to demand more voter suppression.

And he wasn't alone. In 2011, a slew of G-O-TEA legislators were firmly behind Sherwood's voter suppression agenda. One of them was State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Spring Valley).

And she didn't stop after Sherwood left the Legislature Building (as a legislator, only to reeenter later as a lobbyist). Rather, Barbara Cegavske decided to sabotage Secretary of State (and current Attorney General candidate) Ross Miller's (D) election reform agenda by demanding voter suppression in lieu of SB 63, Miller's electronic verification bill that would have guaranteed secure elections without disenfranchising lawful Nevada voters. But for Cegavske, she didn't see the point of passing any kind of election related bills that didn't disenfranchise lawful Nevada voters (especially the ones least likely to vote for Republicans).

Now, Barbara Cegavske is running to succeed Ross Miller as Secretary of State. And of course, she's running on a platform of dismantling all the progress Miller and his predecessors made in protecting Nevadans' right to vote. (Start at 14:15 below for the good stuff.)



Basically, Barbara Cegavske wants to import the national G-O-TEA voter suppression agenda into Nevada. And if she wins next month, we can expect more of this here in The Silver State.



At the very least, Barbara Cegavske offers a stark contrast from her opponent, Kate Marshall (D).



Ultimately, this race comes down to this: How strongly do we value our right to vote? Do we think it's OK for well heeled out-of-state G-O-TEA aligned special interests to come in and install someone with a stated goal of preventing people from voting? Or do we want to ensure all legal Nevada voters have the chance to participate in the "small d" democratic process?

Caught

Last week, someone was arrested. She registered to vote in Clark County... Twice, as a Republican and as a Democrat. And Biqui Diana Parra Rodriguez has been caught.

In April, Hortencia Segura registered as a Republican in Washoe County... Even though she's not a citizen. And she was caught.

Last week, Washington State Rep. (and aspiring Hollywood beefcake) Mike Hope (R) resigned from the Washington Legislature when news reports revealed that he has been registered to vote in Washington State and Ohio since last summer. Once he resigned, Mike Hope then revealed that he hasn't had a permanent address in his district for a while. In fact, he no longer has a permanent address anywhere in Washington State. He's now relocating back to Ohio. Oh yes, and he has been caught.

Notice a pattern here? For one, all these registration fraud cases just happened to involve Republican voter registrations. And ultimately, all of them were rather quickly caught.

But of course, certain G-O-TEA politicians (cough- Barbara Cegavske -cough) are now demanding voter suppression. And of course, they do so whenever stories like these emerge. Never mind that members of their own party were doing it. Never mind that they're advocating a system where voters are presumed guilty before they can prove their innocence, something that is the exact opposite of American legal tradition. And never mind that the tiny handful of people who try their hands at voter registration fraud are ultimately caught in a rather short amount of time.

So why are they now demanding voter suppression (again)? Why do they want to risk violating the legitimate voting rights of many thousands of Nevadans and millions more Americans? Why are they demanding a "solution" in search of a problem?

The jig is up. They've been caught. We can see right through this latest political stunt, and we sense we're not alone.

Ready for the Job

Every so often, this has reemerged. Back in 2012, an outgoing G-O-TEA legislator hinted at it. In 2013, State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R) and her usual G-O-TEA allies tried to turn meaningful election reform into it. Later that year, Assembly Member Pat Hickey (R) joked about it. And earlier this year, none other than Sharron Angle tried to toss it onto the ballot.

Voting rights is something we should take seriously. But for Barbara Cegavske, voter suppression is great and the Secretary of State's office is just another political stepping stone.



Outgoing Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) has big shoes to fill. And so far, Kate Marshall (D) looks set to fill those shoes. She's already been serving the state as Treasurer. But now, she's ready to pivot to protecting people's right to vote and oversee new business coming to Nevada.

(Below is her speech from the Nevada State Democratic Party Convention in Reno last Saturday.)



And it's really not that dramatic of a pivot. Kate Marshall has already been keeping close watch on our public dollars. She's a trained lawyer. And she seems to care about a little thing called public service.

And Barbara Cegavske? Barbara Cegavske? Barbara Cegavske? Barbara Cegavske? Ain't she grand?

But is she ready for the job?

Another #CCDP2012 Update

So far, here's what's been happening:







Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D), Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) (who's also, of course, now running for US Senate) spoke to the convention floor.





So have State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) and likely NV-04 Democratic nominee Steven Horsford.

Both Berkley and Horsford spoke powerfully about protecting Social Security and Medicare, and about rejecting "tea party" extremism. And while the crowd has thinned a little since lunch break, the room here in The Riviera's Convention Center still looks pretty full... And the room is still getting riled up by powerful speeches.

Oh, and by the way, President Obama will be getting all of Clark County's delegates to the state Democratic Convention this June. Surprised, anyone?

Again, I'll have videos from the speeches available later this weekend. Stay tuned for more.

10 of 11: The Rise & Fall of the "New" Nevada GOP

Without a doubt, 2011 was a dramatic year for our friends and foes across the aisle. They started off on a high... Despite failing last year to "take out" their top target. In fact, it seemed like Brian Sandoval's early success in blocking needed revenue lifted them up to Cloud 9 where they could enjoy their AFP/"Tea Party, Inc." funded orgy. And even though the Nevada Supreme Court ultimately nipped that G-O-TEA fantasy in the bud in late May, they were still optimistic. And hey, why not when their biggest thorn in the side was finally magically erased?



But then, something funny happened on the way to Dean Heller's "coronation". Just as Brian Sandoval tried to essentially hand him our US Senate seat, they both got a loud reality check in April. Remember when we first talked about it?

Sandoval really thought this blatant snubbing of Nevadans would be glossed over as just another instance of "politics as usual". However, so far it looks like we the people want to take a closer look and ask why Dean Heller deserves a "head start" in next year's Senate election, and why we the people should be forced to pay for a special election to replace Heller exactly when Sandoval wants to slash public education to death, force elderly & disabled Nevadans onto the streets, and endanger Nevada's fragile economic recovery.

What, are Carson City political games more important than the lives of real Nevadans? Is this what Brian Sandoval meant by "shared sacrifice"? And is this just another instance of Dean Heller practicing something far different from what he preaches? Is it more important to cheat against Shelley Berkley than to actually focus on what their respective jobs are supposed to be?

When PPP and Mellman first showed a tightening Senate race, the pundits were shocked. But now that it's still tight (PPP's last poll showed a tie race), they expect another barnburner of a Senate race in the coming year. Whoops.

But wait, what about Mark Amodei? Yes, what about him. He went from facing a potentially scary upset (for him) to an easy win. And yes, both his political resiliency and Kate Marshall's shocking crashing & burning of her own campaign forced a nasty "gut check moment" for Democrats in Tonopah this past September.

As I wrote then...

Of course, last night's special election results weren't good for Obama or Congressional Democrats, but on the other hand many in DC are forgetting the local dynamics of both races. Here in Nevada, Kate Marshall positioned herself to essentially run against Obama, which demoralized the Democratic base and caused the entire election to be played on the Nevada GOP's turf. And in New York, Orthodox Jews and older white "Reagan Democrats" turned hard Republicans made that election into a referendum on Israel, social issues, and internal Brooklyn & Queens political drama. And while special elections tend to produce dramatic results as of late, they rarely provide a clear forecast of the political climate of the following election cycle.

What will be far more telling in the coming weeks and months, however, is what happens to the economy next, how politicians and political parties react to the state of the economy, and how voters respond to the politicians' reactions.

And that's when the tide turned yet again.



In August, the G-O-TEA seemed to be flying high again after "The Great Debt Ceiling Debacle of 2011". Democrats again seemed demoralized (see above note on Kate Marshall's campaign), the "tea party" looked to take control of the narrative, and we all just needed to shut up and embrace our "bright future" ahead with Mitt Romney. But then (again), something funny happened on the way to Romney's "coronation" and the Nevada GOP's "reascendancy". He told us to "drop dead", but it was really only the local G-O-TEA outlet that followed through. Ralston couldn't contain himself as he saw them turn to slow-motion implosion, but I wasn't too surprised, as I saw for myself the dreaded "Obama-Reid Machine" rise again while the G-O-TEA were arguing over how irrelevant their caucus was to be.

As we discussed back in late October when the Nevada GOP sealed the deal on the "Great RNC-New Hampshire Cave-in of 2011":

Too late, Mrs. Tark Shark. It's already been a huge debacle, an unnecessary distraction, and a way for New Hampshire politicians to use our state as their personal pinata. Maybe you avoided getting deposed as Nevada GOP Chair, but you've already lost as your party has just become the national laughingstock. [...]

While OFA and Nevada Democrats are busy being... Well, productive, in registering voters and calling to recruit more volunteers, Nevada Republicans were too busy chickening out to New Hampshire teabaggers and sacrificing our state's dignity to pay for Florida's original sin [in moving their primary to January 31, triggering the chaos that led to the RNC forcing the Nevada GOP to push back their caucus to February 4 so New Hampshire can do their primary exactly when they want it]. So there you have it. This may very well be the moment that clinches Nevada, and perhaps the overall 2012 election, for President Obama next year.

What? You think I'm crazy? I think everyone needs to review what happened in last year's Senate election. Welcome to deja vu. The spirit of Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron lives on in the Nevada Republican Party. [...]

Funny enough, the usual "Sharrontology Fan Club" TEA-nut conspiracy theorists were trying to claim, "Big Bad Harry Reid HIJACKED!!!!!" their pointless central committee meeting, but that's just crazy talk. Neither he nor Obama needed to. Nevada Republicans are doing a great job losing the upcoming election all by themselves!

And here's where it all comes full circle. Just as they blew it last year in picking the ultimate extremist to lose to Harry Reid and muck up their own message in the process, the Nevada GOP are set to lose more elections all on their own all over again. They threw a hissy fit over the nonpartisan judicial redistricting results that they supposedly wanted. They focused on stupid "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crap when people were asking for jobs. Dean Heller and Joe Heck were too busy catering to "Tea Party, Inc." and nutty extremists to notice their constituents protesting outside their local offices.



And as all of this was happening all around them, Nevada GOP "leaders" couldn't realize the turmoil at their own doorstep because they were too busy believing Barbara Cegavske's delusions of grandeur! Hey, how else can we explain what they did this year? They rose so high, only to fall so fast.

Sorry, Nevada GOP. Apparently Democrats won't be so easy to beat after all.

Two new major national polls show President Obama’s approval ratings making solid improvement, and putting him close to the 50% threshold that is seen as key for an incumbent seeking reelection. In addition, the polls suggest that Obama could be doing better than the Congressional Republicans in their ongoing political fights. [...]

The CNN poll had only a simple version of [a question on the economy and how Obama can handle it], with a very good result for Obama: “Do you have more confidence in President Obama or in the Republicans in Congress to deal with the major issues facing the country today?”

The numbers: Obama 50%, Republicans 31%.

NV-02: While Amodei Two Steps With "Tea Party", Nevadans Need Real Solutions

(Also at The Nevada View & Daily Kos)

Yesterday, Republicans were already taking out the "Mission Accomplished" sign and declaring victory. They were proclaiming a shoddy "poll" paid by a shadowy "tea party" outfit that couldn't even refer to Kate Marshall by her correct name as "proof" that they're on track to win.

Some of the readers of the Reno Gazette-Journal have contacted me to say that reports of last week’s poll on the special election for the open seat in the 2nd Congressional District are bogus.

It showed that Republican Mark Amodei has a 13-point lead over Democrat Kate Marshall with three weeks to go until the Sept 13 election. It would be almost an insurmountable lead, with so little time remaining.

Yet three readers sent e-mails last Friday after the story appeared, saying Marshall was referred to by another name during the robo polling sponsored by Americans For Prosperity, considered a conservative group with Republican leanings.

"I was contacted by the poll to which you refer in your article today," Kathleen Fogarty wrote last week. "Kate Marshall’s name was not even offered as a candidate. Instead, they listed Kate Jackson as a candidate. I would have voted for Marshall, but when her name was not offered I just hung up. I did listen to the message twice though before I hung up to make sure I heard it correctly."

So now that PPP is about to release a real shocker of a poll showing a statistical tie, Mark Amodei and his teabagger buddies are freaking out. He told Jon Ralston last night that he's "a solutions guy"... And apparently that means voting against one's own legislation and voting contrary to what one indicated just weeks ago! You have to see last night's "Face to Face" debate moderated by Jon Ralston to believe it!

As I was saying last week, Amodei is trying to have it both ways on Paul Ryan's plan to kill Medicare and attack the middle class. Just pay attention to Amodei's own words!

• “I need to cozy up to Paul Ryan and give him whatever support he needs.” – Mark Amodei, on Paul Ryan (Las Vegas Sun, Jul. 14, 2011)

• “I like a lot of what he [Rep. Paul Ryan] has to say in terms of Medicare, I think that’s excellent.” (Republican Congressional District 2 debate, Jun. 15, 2011)

• The Las Vegas Sun reported, “Amodei has embraced Ryan’s plan” (Las Vegas Sun, Jul. 14, 2011)

• Amodei praised the Ryan blueprint. “I like a lot of what he has to say in terms of Medicare. I think that’s excellent.” (Politico, Jun. 20, 2011)

Does this sound like someone who would have voted "Nay" on Ryan's plan? Amodei continues to lie about what he really stands for. No wonder why his poll numbers are crashing.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU (8/18-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kate Marshall (D): 42
Mark Amodei (R): 43
Timothy Fasano (AI): 3
Helmuth Lehmann (I): 3
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)

Now contrast that with what Kate Marshall has been doing this summer.





She was here last weekend to talk to voters. She did house parties in Henderson and addressed everything from Medicare to the military. You don't have to read her issue statements and second guess them.

And on Sunday, I was out canvassing in the North Las Vegas section of the district. Believe it or not, NV-02 actually comes this far south. And believe it or not, voters in the neighborhood I walked with a group of friends on Sunday (including one who actually lives right there) are not used to being engaged in this kind of conversation and actually being asked for their votes.

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People here had questions about job creation, Medicare, renewable energy, foreclosures and much more. They know people out of work, and they saw their neighbors being foreclosed out of their homes. They didn't have time for double-speak. They didn't have time for politics as usual. And they really didn't have time for someone who wanted to "get cozy" with Paul Ryan's agenda of attacking the middle class.



Unlike her opponent, Kate Marshall has always put the middle class first.

Kate Marshall is well known in Nevada, and well liked. She’s won two statewide elections here. She has a solid chance to win this election, particularly given the extreme positions of her opponent. Even though it’s a conservative district, CD2 doesn’t necessarily like fringe ideologues like Mark Amodei.

Kate Marshall is a prudent thinker. She has always maximized the use of our tax dollars as Nevada’s State Treasurer. She led the way to save the Millennium Scholarship. She has reinvested Nevada’s state budget giving us larger returns. [...]

Kate Marshall wouldn’t put our economy, our credit rating, the value of the dollar and the entire global economy at risk by voting against raising the debt ceiling. Mark Amodei has made it clear he would. Apparently he doesn’t care if our economy plummets and we all lose our jobs. He’s an ideologue.

Kate Marshall will shake things up in Washington, putting Congress back to work for us. She’ll be a budget hawk, but she won’t destroy the very things that have made America great. She’ll guard Medicare and Social Security, which Mark Amodei wants to slash and burn. She’ll fight for you and your children’s education opportunities.

Mark Amodei may have loaded "tea party" friends tossing out bogus "polls" and paying for multi-million dollar disinformation campaigns, but they're learning the hard way they can't just buy this election for him. We the people still matter. We need real solutions coming out of Congress right now, and Kate Marshall actually wants to get working on that.

NV-02: Kate Marshall Unplugged

Yesterday, Southern Nevada actually had a chance to meet a Congressional candidate. Normally, this wouldn't be a big deal. We see campaigns come and go all the time... Except for those who live in the 2nd Congressional District. Unfortunately because the last round of redistricting led to so much gross gerrymandering, NV-02 was redrawn in 2001 to dip into Clark County neighborhoods as far apart as Primm, Anthem Highlands, The Northeast Valley, and Mesquite. So all too often in the last decade, they've been lost in the shuffle as no one really bothered to pay attention to them...

Until now.

Kate Marshall is running in the NV-02 special election to fill this seat vacated by Dean Heller when Brian Sandoval appointed him to the US Senate. And yesterday, Kate actually came here to Clark County to meet with voters. She did a free "meet & greet" in Sun City Anthem in Henderson, then came down to Green Valley (also in Henderson) for a low-dollar grassroots fundraiser.

I was at the low-dollar grassroots fundraiser yesterday (since my neighbor who lives across the wash & golf course from me hosted it!), and I took some video from the Q&A session. If you're as much of a policy wonk as I am, you'll enjoy these next 24 minutes.



And if not, here's a quick summary:

Afghanistan- Kate favors bringing our troops home, but only as long as the military commanders on the ground approve of the timeline and no troops are put in danger.

Social Security & Medicare- Kate made it crystal clear yesterday that she opposes ANY effort to cut either program or do anything else to harm seniors' health care.

Climate Change- Kate favors comprehensive climate legislation and aggressive green jobs programs to get Nevada working again, and she would like to see more legislation to allow for reasonable renewable energy development on available public lands.

Wall Street- Kate said she would like to see prosecutions of those whose misdeeds contributed to the 2008 crash.

Budget- Kate described how she's worked to balance her budget in the Nevada Treasurer's office and exclaimed she isn't afraid to look for wasteful spending and strip it out. However she also said "across the board" cuts should be off the table, as it would not be fair or smart to slash public education, Medicaid, or other vitally needed services.

Immigration- Kate supports comprehensive immigration reform that includes smart border security and dealing fairly with the undocumented already here.

And there's even more in the video if you'd like to watch. And if you'd like to help us win here, please sign up to volunteer. Thanks!

NV-02: Mediscared

(Also at Daily Kos)

Who knew this would yet again be THE hot button issue in yet another special Congressional election? It all seems to be coming down to Medicare, Medicare, & Medicare.

In [the NY-26 special election], Democrat Kathy Hochul went up early and hard against her Republican opponent, accusing her of seeking to kill Medicare because she supported Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget proposal. It took weeks for Republican Jane Corwin to respond.

When Hochul won the heavily GOP district, the Republicans-want-to-kill-Medicare message quickly became a national strategy, and Democrats posited that by using it they could take back the House.

Marshall has followed that playbook, focusing two of her three attack ads on Amodei’s evolving position on Ryan’s plan to revamp Medicare.

But neither national Republicans nor Amodei are letting the attacks go unchallenged. An Amodei TV ad features his mother and accuses Marshall of lying about his record.

This is what has Mark Amodei freaking out.

In addition to pushing the national momentum on Medicare, Marshall’s campaign thinks Amodei is vulnerable on the issue. The district is home to many seniors.

Early in the campaign, Amodei called Ryan’s proposal a good starting point. When he was working to get the Republican central committee’s nomination, he said he would “cozy up” to Ryan to get his plan passed.

A local Reno news station tried to debunk Mark Amodei's misleading ads...



But honestly, even KTVN got some facts wrong! For instance, the "Medicare cuts" that Amodei claims Marshall supports, and that KTVN claims were passed as part of the Affordable Care Act last year, are really provisions ensuring that Medicare funds are redirected to better patient care instead of being wasted on insurance industry profits (aka "Medicare Advantage") and other forms of waste & abuse. In addition, the Affordable Care Act actually improves Medicare coverage by lowering prescription drug costs and providing free preventive care!

This is what President Obama and the Democratic 111th Congress did to strengthen and improve health care for seniors.



Now contrast this with what House Republicans have been pushing for.



And Mark Amodei most definitely supports Paul Ryan's GOP-teabagger plan to kill Medicare. And despite what Amodei claims, the fact of the matter is that "The Paul Ryan Kill Medicare Plan" that he supported will indeed affect seniors currently on Medicare.

Amodei can spin all he wants, but the facts are simply not on his or Paul Ryan's side.

That’s not how Ryan’s plan works. For one thing, it eliminates traditional fee-for-service Medicare. For another, Its savings come from capping the growth of federal spending at inflation — which is much, much, much slower than the rate of health-care cost growth. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that, in 2022, Ryan’s plan would have a typical beneficiary shouldering 61 percent of the cost of a standard plan, and by 2030, because the government would limit its contributions, they’d be paying 68 percent. [... I]t’s absolutely central to how the Ryan budget saves money. It’s the core of his proposal.

And considering this along with Ryan's and Congressional Republicans' increasingly ugly poll numbers, no wonder why Amodei is so scared that he's trying his hardest to run away from his support for "Ryancare". He can run, but can he really hide? Not if we don't let him!

NV-02: Mark Amodei's Two Faces

We have a campaign that's rapidly heating up! Take a look at Kate Marshall's new ads.





I knew this was coming. Mark Amodei invited it.

Mark Amodei is trying to sail in the winds of Tea Party extreme conservatism that has swept the nation. He’s not alone. Somehow the GOP has regressed into a pissing contest over who are really the authentic conservatives.

Mark Amodei, Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller and John McCain all used to be different. Each has played a much more moderate tune in the past. Some of their moves would just not be acceptable today, perhaps even warranting raised eyebrows, questions of patriotism or accusations of socialism. At the very least, their past behavior is just not acceptable in the Republican Party anymore.

Today, Kate Marshall highlighted this phenomenon in a television commercial, targeting her opponent’s record on taxes. He did indeed sponsor a tax increase to the tune of a billion dollars in 2003. Socialist! You can argue all you want about what Kate Marshall would have done, but if you don’t see the inherent hypocrisy in Mark Amodei’s rhetoric today, you are missing the point entirely.

Does he just expect all of us to forget his own words and deeds in 2003? All of a sudden, he's become a born-again teabagger?

It's just pathetic to watch Mark Amodei run away from his own record. He can run, but can he really hide? Kate Marshall seems to be making sure he can't.

NV-02: Kate Marshall Wins NSDP Endorsement

No surprise here...

State Treasurer Kate Marshall easily won her party’s nomination Saturday in the special election race for U.S. Sen. Dean Heller’s former congressional seat.

Marshall vied against two other Democrats, political newcomers, for the nomination of the Nevada Democratic Party’s central committee at its meeting in Reno. Former regent Nancy Price, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat last year, dropped out of the running for the nomination on Friday.

Marshall won 117 of the 122 votes cast by the central committee.

The nomination sets up a potential head-to-head between Marshall and Republican former state Sen. Mark Amodei, of Carson City, to serve the remainder of Heller’s term in the 2nd Congressional District, a sprawling district that covers all of northern Nevada and includes a slice of Clark County.

Although both parties have nominated candidates, it will be up to the Nevada Supreme Court to decide whether it is Amodei vs. Marshall or an open ballot free-for-all that includes all 29 candidates who have filed with the Secretary of State to run in the Sept. 13 election.

So what does this mean? Well, this may have had a role in it.

Kate Marshall has won two state-wide elections. She is considered to have broad appeal. She is from the north and knows the people intimately. Kate is known for connecting with voters and winning their confidence. Pundits say this may be the closest election in CD2 history, with a good chance of a Democrat victory, thanks to unpopular ideological leanings in the GOP today.

NV-02 is historically a Republican stronghold, but the unique factors of this election may lead to a very surprising result. And remember, these party nominations may not last long. The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately decide who will appear on the final ballot. That's why I'm referring to what happened yesterday as the Democratic Party endorsing Marshall, and what happened last weekend as the Republican Party endorsing Amodei. Should the high court overturn the lower court's ruling, the general election will be more than just Marshall vs. Amodei.

So now, both major parties have endorsed in NV-02. At this point, the ball is in the court...

Yet Another Redistricting Scenario!

Since it's looking increasingly likely Nevada redistricting will end up in court, I wanted to look again at how The Nevada Supreme Court will end up redrawing Nevada's Congressional Map. I also wanted to provide an update on what I'm hearing on the ground on who will be running where.

Here's the dilemma: The horribly nasty state budget stalemate has pretty much infected everything in Carson City, including the usually congenial redistricting process. And even though it's increasingly likely The Legislature will finally compromise on a budget/tax deal, at the same time the clock is quickly running out and there may not be any time left for a compromise on redistricting.

So what are you waiting for? Let's get to the map!





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 675,282
69.3% White (73.7% VAP)

The State of Play

Wow! We've seen plenty of change here! Sharron Angle looks to be out, Kate Marshall is now officially in, and the entire September special election is totally up in the air!

But regardless of what happens with that special election this year, the court has to redraw the district for next year. I think there's a good chance the judges will direct their aides to keep all of Washoe County (Reno area) intact, then connect it to Carson City, Douglas County, Storey County, Lyon County, and the Fallon area of Churchill County. This essentially makes the greater Reno-Carson metro area, so it would meet the bar for communities of interest. The seat also includes the northern rural counties of Pershing, Lander, Eureka, and Elko.

While this district has been historically (VERY!) Republican, the changing demographics of Washoe County are leading to much changed politics of this area. In addition, the changing dynamics of the Nevada Republican Party will also shake up the balance of power here. While a moderate Republican is likely favored here in any election, Republican primary voters have been demanding more ideological purity as of late, and may very well nominate teabaggers doomed to lose in general elections.

Who's All In?

As I hinted at above, Kate Marshall is now running for Congress. And if she happens to win in September, I figure the state Democratic Party will ensure next year's primary is cleared for her. And since Marshall lives in Reno, there's virtually no chance of her being redistricted out of NV-02.

Now on the other hand, things have been far more turbulent on the Republican side up here. Sharron Angle is definitely out of the special election, and now political observers are wondering if maybe, just maybe, she'll also stay out of next year's election. If so, then Kirk Lippold's political life will get that much easier. He received a huge boost earlier this month when former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV GOP Old Guard) endorsed him. And now with Angle out of the race, he will have an easier time consolidating the teabagger vote.

At the same time, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) and former Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei will have a tough fight ahead. They're trying to balance throwing some bones to the extreme right to appease the teabaggers while looking sane enough to hold enough moderates to win a general election. Good luck with that! Perhaps Brower or Amodei can pull that off in the general, but first there's the primary. And in the event either Kate Marshall or Kirk Lippold wins the special election this year, will they try again next year?

The Wild Cards

At this point, it's all on the teabaggers. Will they unite behind Lippold? Can they tolerate Amodei or Brower? Will they allow for another Sharron Angle comeback? Only time will tell.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Current Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if special election produces big surprise





NV-04 (The Red District)

Population: 675,251
61.5% White (65.0% VAP)

The State of Play

We've all been waiting for where Nevada's shiny new Congressional District lands. But now that The Nevada Supreme Court has final say, it's looking like the new seat will land on a wide stretch of land going from rural Churchill County to expansive Nye and Lincoln Counties to the sprawling western Clark County (Greater Las Vegas) suburbs and exurbs. This new district forces a "shotgun wedding" of the Deep Republican Central Nevada rural areas with the more Democratic leaning Spring Valley neighborhoods and swingy Summerlin and Northwest neighborhoods of Clark County. It may not be the prettiest district, but it's probably the court's best option to unite communities of interest in the western (Las Vegas) valley while meeting population requirements.

Oh, and since the district pretty much splits right down the middle, NV-04 isn't a "slam dunk" for either Democrats or Republicans.

Who's All In?

This really changes everything. On the Republican side, the new lines may very well encourage State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) to run, as she's been yearning lately for a promotion to DC. Now she finally has a district to make her dreams come true. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Southwest Vegas) may also be encouraged by local teabaggers to run, even though her house may be outside this district.

But unless Republicans can agree on a more moderate candidate who can carry the Clark County portion of NV-04, they may be in trouble. Many of these parts of Vegas have been growing more diverse and trending more Democratic as of late, so Democrats may actually be favored next year if President Obama remains popular, a moderate Summerlin area Democrat can win the nomination, and the Republicans get too teabaggy for voters here. Paging Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown (D-Northwest Vegas)?

The Wild Cards

You mean NV-04 isn't wild enough for you?! ;-)

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.6%
McCain (R) 46.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 48%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Current Race Rating: Tossup



NV-01 (The Blue District)

Population: 675,148
29.0% White (34.5% VAP), 14.7% African-American (14.8% VAP), 47.0% Latino (41.1% VAP)

The State of Play

Here's where things get even wilder! One of the brightest and hottest flash points of the redistricting battle in Nevada has been over minority representation, and in particular what to do with Nevada's Latinos. Republicans have claimed the Voting Rights Act (VRA) demands a Latino majority seat, while Democrats have claimed Latinos should have enough sway in multiple districts to maximize opportunity. At this point, I suspect the court will throw out both parties' maps and split the middle on the reasoning. This probably means we will see NV-01 become a VRA coalition seat based in North Las Vegas and the older, more diverse neighborhoods of Las Vegas (city, mainly Downtown, East Las Vegas, and West Las Vegas) with a fairly strong (38-43%) Latino voting aged population (VAP) plurality.

Who's All In?

So if this is what the court settles upon, then this changes everything on who will win NV-01 next year. State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) has been considered the early frontrunner here, but this district creates major geographic and demographic challenges for him. In addition, as The Legislature closes its 76th session with a total meltdown over the state budget and the progressive Democratic base is becoming increasingly frustrated with party leadership over the lack of progress on implementing progressive tax reform and securing more public education funding, Horsford may pay the ultimate price for this.

All this time, it's been rumored that freshman State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas), a rapidly rising Latino star in Carson City, has been waiting in the wings. This may be his perfect opportunity, as Steven Horsford's political woes surface and Nevada's Latinos are looking for new and exciting leaders.

The Wild Cards

I've occasionally heard that North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck (R) may want a big promotion some time soon, but I suspect she realizes what she has to do to win a Republican primary here probably won't help her win over the voters she needs to succeed in this very heavily Democratic minority-majority district.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 69.1%
McCain (R) 28.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 65%
Sharron Angle (R) 30%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 58%
Brian Sandoval (R) 37%

Current Race Rating: Safe Democratic



NV-03: The Purple District

Population: 674,870
56.7% White (60.6% VAP)

The State of Play

For the last decade, NV-03 has been the "fair fight district" that Republicans thought they could keep a firm grasp upon, until they struggled to save Jon Porter in 2006, only to see him go down in flames in 2008. Joe Heck then turned the district Red again in 2010, but only barely (winning by fewer than 2,000 votes and earning only 48%). Republican legislators had been hoping they could reach a deal with Democrats to give Heck a friendlier NV-03 in 2012. And while there's a faint chance of some last minute deal that allows for a budget that continues the 2009 taxes while throwing the GOP this bone, it's looking increasingly unlikely. Instead, it seems like The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately draw out Joe Heck's fate.

And if the court really looks at communities of interest, then Heck will be in for quite the rough rise. This NV-03 is drawn to reunite almost the entire East Side, which is heavily Democratic, then swing south to swingy Henderson, take in the increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest valley suburbs (west of I-15, south of 215), take in heavily Republican Boulder City, then stretch all the way out to the California border at Primm and Arizona border at Laughlin. The end result is a NV-03 that is slightly more Democratic than its current incarnation, and that may spell real trouble for teabagger darling Heck.

Who's All In?

So what will Joe Heck do? It seems like he's been operating on the assumption he will get at least a slightly redder district, but now he's at the mercy of judges who are supposed to put aside partisan politics. Will Republicans finally lose this district for good?

Enter Dina Titus. She has been itching for a(nother) political comeback since she lost to Heck in a painfully close election. Even though she was probably planning on running in a safer seat, this is now her best opportunity to return to Congress. This district reunites her long time East Side base, includes all the Henderson areas she's known to do well in, and drops the Summerlin and Northwest suburbs that caused her the most problems in 2008 and 2010. This may very well be the best Dina can hope for considering the court now redraws the lines.

The Wild Cards

Early this year, State Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) sounded like a possible Congressional candidate. And perhaps he will still feel the itch to run. But at this point, he has a much tougher hill to climb. Now that The Legislature is in so much chaos in its final days, he will have a harder time convincing Democratic primary voters he's their champion fighter.

At the same time, Joe Heck may have yet another headache if he tries to shift back to the center in a last attempt to save his political career. So far he's had an easy relationship with teabaggers because he gives them the vast majority of what they want. However, what they want is NOT what we needs to do to win an otherwise Democratic leaning district. If Heck pulls back on issues like Paul Ryan's Medicare dismantling, he will probably risk losing the GOP primary. Will teabaggers ask Elizabeth Halseth to run here? Or will they turn to one of their statewide 2010 also rans?

Funny enough, it's increasingly looking like Dina Titus will have an easier primary than most expected early this year. With Rory Reid definitely out, John Oceguera possibly staying out, and Joe Heck at greater risk of getting booted out, Dina may have the last laugh after all.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55.7%
McCain (R) 42.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 45%

Current Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So there you have it. This is another glimpse at what the final results of a court drawn Nevada map may look like.

I know this may scare some folks here who were hoping for two or three safe Democratic seats, but remember this. Nevada's demographics gave shifted rapidly in the last two decades, resulting in a huge political realignment that led to President Obama's stunning 12.5% win in 2008 and Harry Reid's shocking 5.6% win in 2010. While there have been plenty of ups and downs in the last three election cycles, Democrats overall continue to be on an upswing and demographic trends look to continue helping Democrats keep a firm grasp on the intensely urban NV-01, recapture the suburban-but-diversifying NV-03, become more competitive in the transitioning NV-02, and stake a claim on the up-for-grabs NV-04. Maybe Democrats shouldn't be afraid of a court drawn map after all.

Home Means Nevada: Redistricting Congress "Fairly"

(Also at Swing State Project)

In our previous glimpses into redistricting Nevada's Congressional Districts, we discussed what would happen if The Legislature redraws the lines based on certain politicians' future aspirations. But this time, I'm throwing a curveball at you. What happens if The Legislature can't agree on a map?

Today, the fun really begins with a glimpse of a possible court drawn map.

Yes, you heard me right. Two law suits have already been filed, one by the Nevada Democratic Party and another by the Nevada GOP, and more legal action may follow if The Legislature drags on without a map ready for 2012. If the increasingly brutal state budget battle drags on to Summer Special Session with no agreement in sight, there's a good chance the gridlock will also extend to redistricting. And as much as Nevada Supreme Court justices do NOT want to wade into redistricting, I've been hearing that both they and the major parties are seeing it as more of a real possibility.

So what happens? Let's take a look at just that, as a few angry judges throw out the political memos and guide a nonpartisan team to draw "fair" lines.





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,932
69.3% White (73.7% VAP)

The State of Play

As you can see above, this is still a Washoe County based district. The good news for Republicans is that Washoe's flirtations with Democrats can be offset by heavily Republican rural areas like Elko, Douglas, and Lyon Counties. However, the bad news is that swingy Mineral County and Carson City are also included. All in all, The 2nd District becomes slightly more Democratic.

Who's All In?

Now that Kirk Lippold and Sharron Angle are officially in, let the tea-nuttery begin! It will be to fun to see those two out-crazy each other, then watch as "poor" Mark Amodei and Brian Krolicki try to get some of those teabagger votes without going too far off the deep end.

On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Kate Marshall is sounding more and more like a real candidate.

The Wild Cards

However, Marshall may not be alone. 2006 and 2008 NV-02 Democratic nominee Jill Derby is also looking at the race, along with Assembly Member Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) and Reno City Council Member Jessica Sferrazza. Now that all out madness is ensuing on the GOP side, Washoe Dems are increasingly liking their chances here... But it still won't be an easy ride. Why? See below.

Estimated 2008 Results: 49-50% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Angle or Lippold wins the GOP primary



NV-04 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,314
61.9% White (65.2% VAP)

The State of Play

Now here's where things start to get wild! Notice some changes? For one, it's the new district that now gets drawn into the rurals. The new 4th District starts in rural Churchill County (Fallon gets placed in NV-02 because it can be argued it shares a community of interest with the other Reno exurbs), but otherwise the other rural counties are left whole as the district stretches from Ely down to Pahrump, then finally to Clark County. And once the district crosses into Clark, it takes in northern rural areas, from Indian Springs to Overton & Mesquite, then drops into the valley to take in the once rapidly expanding Northwest and Southwest Las Vegas suburbs, as well as all of Summerlin and some whiter West Side neighborhoods.

In essence, this is THE classic swing district with a unique mix of rural Republican strongholds, urban Democratic bases, and a whole lot of evenly divided suburban battlegrounds that can very well go either way next year... And that's how the court will want it.

Who's All In?

Notice something else? There's no incumbent here! Even though there technically is one in Shelley Berkley, we all now know what she's up to. So in her absence, there should be a wild ride on both sides in vying for this seat.

On the Republican side, State Senator Barbara Cegavske's (R-Summerlin) wish will finally be fulfilled as she now has an open seat to compete in. But then again, she may get an unwanted surprise if local teabagger groups rally behind the newly crowned, tea-tinged superstar in State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest Vegas). State Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Northwest Vegas) may also feel the temptation.

On the Democratic side, Assembly Member Marcus Conklin (D-Northwest Vegas) may be real opportunity here. And considering his gracious concession earlier this month and offer to endorse Chris Giunchigliani for Las Vegas Mayor after 15 votes separated them in the primary, Larry Brown is busy re-earning goodwill that may come in handy should he run for Congress next year. (By the way, in case you were wondering, he's also apologized for the confusion over his support for SB 283 and domestic partnerships for LGBTQ families.) And unless the Nevada GOP can sideline Cegavske and Halseth in favor of a more mainstream nominee, Dems may very well like their chances here.

The Wild Cards

Hey, isn't it wild enough already!

Estimated 2008 Results: 51-54% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Tossup



NV-01 (The Blue District)

Population: 674,765
47.0% Latino (41.2% VAP), 29.1% White (34.5% VAP), 14.6% African American (14.8% VAP)

The State of Play

Even if Shelley Berkley wasn't running for Senate, the court would not care where she lives or where she "wants" to represent. But now that she's definitely out of the picture, all bets are off! The 1st District contracts to just (all of) North Las Vegas and the older, more Latino and African American heavy parts of The City of Las Vegas, as well as a few heavily Latino unincorporated Clark County areas and the northern half of The Strip.

Who's All In?

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) hasn't done a great job of hiding his desire to head to DC. And thankfully for him, a court drawn map doesn't prevent that, as this is designed to be a VRA protected minority-majority coalition district.

However, the path isn't too clear for him. After all, this is a strong Latino plurality district, and State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) is a fierce fighter who's gaining broader appeal as a strong, progressive voice in The Legislature. Since this district overlaps with nearly all of his current Senate district, Kihuen definitely can't be counted out.

The Wild Cards

State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) isn't stupid, so perhaps he can't entirely be counted out yet. But as I've said before, he's acting far too conservative this session to really gain traction in a Democratic primary here.

And sorry, Republicans, but there's really no GOPer who can compete here.

Estimated 2008 Results: 67-68% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic



NV-03 (The Red District)

Population: 675,520
56.2% White (60.3% VAP), 23.1% Latino (19.8% VAP), 9.6% Asian American (10.0% VAP)

The State of Play

Now here's where things get really crazy! Remember, the court is overseeing the drawing of this map. The judges don't care what Joe Heck wants or who he wants to represent. All they care about are population equity and fair boundaries. So unfortunately for him, he's forced to accept a Henderson based district that keeps the entire city intact while stretching north into the strongly Democratic East Side (which can be argued shares a community of interest with most of Henderson), and west across The Strip to heavily Democratic Spring Valley (which can be argued shares a community of interest with The East Side, and is needed for population equity), and across Eastern Avenue to Democratic leaning Silverado Ranch.

However, Democrats shouldn't get too giddy here. Remember, ALL of Henderson is kept in here, including Joe Heck's own MacDonald Ranch/Roma Hills base as well as the opulent, affulent, & Republican dominant Anthem & Seven Hills communities. Also kept in are more GOP heavy Boulder City, along with the rural communities of Searchlight and Laughlin further south (as well as Primm, added in from NV-02).

Who's All In?

Obviously, Joe Heck wants another term. However, he will really have to rethink his strategy if The Legislature deadlocks on the state budget and redistricting gets determined in court. Since he's likely to be kept in what will at least be a Democratic tilting district, he will need far more crossover support than he got in 2010 to survive next year in a district President Obama will probably win by double digits again.

So obviously, Heck looks to be an inviting target for Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch). He's survived tough battles before, and he's in the fight of his life now over the state budget. He may feel ready to take on Heck...

But there's someone else waiting in the wings, someone who will have waited a year for the rematch she's been looking for. Dina Titus definitely shouldn't be counted out, especially since she only barely lost last time... And this time, many of the areas where she performed worst have been removed. Meanwhile, her East Side base is left intact, along with the Green Valley (Henderson) neighborhoods where she beat Heck.

The Wild Cards

Byron Georgiou has quickly turned from welcomed Democratic fundraiser to unwelcome Democratic pariah. Both Shelley Berkley and Harry Reid want him out of the Senate race, and rumors have surfaced about him possibly running for House instead. So will it be here? Or in the new NV-04 seat? Or maybe even NV-01? Whatever the case, a whole lot of Democratic strategists nervously await where Georgiou will land.

And of course, depending on what Joe Heck does, particularly how he votes in The House, there's a chance of him being called for "tea time" in the GOP primary.

Estimated 2008 Results: 55-57% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Tossup for now, Leans Democratic if Heck has primary woes & Dems get a top notch nominee

So there you have it. This is just one scenario of what might happen if redistricting Nevada's Congressional Districts is tossed to the courts for judges to decide and nonpartisan players to draw. An incumbent is thrown into jeopardy, two open seats lead to total feeding frenzies, and an epic rematch may be coming to doorsteps near me soon.