Election Liveblog #2: Bob Beers Wins Las Vegas Ward 2 Special (Updated)

OK, so we had the Illinois G-O-TEA train wreck covered. Now it's time to come back to Nevada and see what's happening in our own backyard. Here are the first results for Las Vegas Ward 2.

Precincts Reporting: 0 of 49 (0.00 %)

Candidate Graph Votes %/Total
Beers, Bob 942 36.29 %
Boyers, Roberta 46 1.77 %
Chinn, Bob 313 12.06 %
Gale, Bruce L. 37 1.43 %
Holmes, Sherese 27 1.04 %
Kuzemka, Kristine 340 13.10 %
Raja, F. 28 1.08 %
Ruggiero, Anthony 272 10.48 %
Truesdell, Ric 591 22.77 %
Total 2,596

As most pundits expected, Bob Beers has an early lead. His name recognition most certainly got him there... But will his lead remain this strong all night? We'll have to wait and see.

7:30 PM-

The R-J now has an article up on the early Ward 2 special election results. They interviewed some Las Vegas voters, and apparently found a mix of anti-Goodman sentiment, pro-Goodman sentiment... And even one voter for Kristine Kuzemka.

Whatever happens tonight, it will probably be used by the media as some sort of barometer measuring Mayor Carolyn Goodmans' hold on city hall and influence over city politics. If Bob Beers indeed wins, or if the results change dramatically in the coming hours to reveal some kind of stunning upset by one of "the underdogs", I'm sure at least a few local pundits will start to ask if perhaps Las Vegas is tiring of "government by celebrity glamour".

8:10 PM-

Was this Ric Truesdell's undoing? (Start at 14:00 on the video below.)



Jon Ralston seems to think so.

Team @bobbeers feels confident they won Election Day, too. If so, @RicTruesdellLV spent a fortune to get blown out. Results soon, I'd think.

And I am wondering if perhaps Truesdell's ethics tit-for-tat with Beers indeed dragged him down in the final days. I guess we'll just have to wait for the actual election day numbers to know for sure. I'll just say now that I won't be surprised if it turned out to be a factor.

However, the bigger factors in this election may have ultimately been Carolyn and Oscar. The former Mayor never seemed to handle criticism of his beloved Mob Museum well, and the current Mayor has been feeling the heat lately over that and the new Las Vegas City Hall.



Despite their delicate dance suggesting there was no actual endorsement, it was hard to actually deny that Ric Truesdell was indeed "The Good(man) Candidate". Most pundits had originally thought it would benefit him, and perhaps it did in raising his profile in Ward 2. However, that could have also led to blowback as angry voters found a way to take out their frustration over continued problems with local government, which would mainly be the favoring of certain pet projects over investing in necessary infrastructure to take care of the entire city. After all, how can one justify a city backed "mob museum" when roads have potholes, parks are closed, and police and fire protection have been cut back?

It still strikes me as bizarre that voters would send a "tea party" backed flame thrower to city hall, but then again weird things often happen in special elections.

Oh, and by the way, Bob Beers officially wins. Oh gawd, here he comes...

It's Election Night (Again)!

So it's time to live-blog again. We have another G-O-TEA Presidential Primary in Illinois, and we have a local election here in Southern Nevada. I'll be monitoring both tonight and posting both results & analysis of what's happening.

Stay tuned here at Nevada Progressive tonight as we live-blog the Illinois primary results and the Las Vegas Ward 2 special election.

5:15 PM-

Haven't we heard this before? Tonight is poised to be the night of Mittens' great comeback! Well, isn't it? Perhaps not, depending on Romney's performance in Illinois tonight.

Another scenario is possible, though, one that’s not as unlikely now as it was 24 hours ago – and for the Romney campaign, it’s the doomsday scenario. The key here is that Santorum didn’t just beat Romney in Mississippi and Alabama – he also knocked off Newt Gingrich, who has pitched himself as the South’s candidate. On the heels of his Oklahoma and Tennessee wins on Super Tuesday (and his Ohio near-miss), Santorum can now make a strong case for anti-Romney conservatives to ditch Gingrich once and for all and rally around him. This would give Santorum the one-on-one race with Romney that he’s craved, and how it would turn out is the great unknown.

Starting in the early days of this campaign, polls have shown potentially serious trouble for Romney if the conservative base ever united behind a single candidate. On a few occasions, like with Rick Perry’s late August surge or Gingrich’s in December, a single candidate actually managed to play this role, opening giant leads in national and key early state surveys and attaining polling heights that Romney has still yet to reach. But those candidates were horribly deficient and their surges were short-lived.

Santorum, though, is demonstrating more staying power — and Gingrich has been getting in his way. Without the former speaker in the race, the results wouldn’t have been close last night, nor would they have been in Tennessee and Oklahoma last week. And Santorum probably would have won Ohio, scored a clear win in Iowa and probably Georgia, and maybe pulled off South Carolina, and perhaps even Florida.

We may be arriving at the moment Romney and his campaign have feared for the entire campaign, when they can no longer benefit from a split conservative vote. Gingrich gave no hint in his speech last night that he’ll leave the race anytime soon. But he may be eliminated organically, if conservatives conclude that he’s exhausted his viability and that they’re better off lining up with Santorum. It might not matter if Gingrich presses ahead; if his support evaporates, Santorum will get his one-on-one race anyway.

So far, MSNBC is describing Illinois as "too early to call". This isn't a good sign for Mitt Romney. Some of the final pre-election polls suggested a blowout win for Romney, so anything less than that will probably set him back at least somewhat. And if somehow Mittens manages to bomb everywhere except Greater Chicago-land, it will just confirm his continued woes with the "tea party" base that just can't warm up to the guy who's supposed to be their "inevitable nominee".

Now, we just have to wait for this map to fill up so we can catch a first glimpse of the next stage of the G-O-TEA circus clown show.

5:28 PM-

And we have the first results. And interestingly enough, they're from The Windy City itself... Or at least somewhere in Cook County (which is home to Chicago and its most immediate suburbs), along with Lake County (home to wealthy Chicago suburbs). So far, Mitt Romney is comfortably ahead 54-29 over Rick Santorum. But remember, Chicago-land is where Mittens is expected to run up the score. We just have to wait and see what happens down state.

5:40 PM-

Some news outlets are now calling Illinois for Romney. It's looking likely he'll win tonight, as nearly everyone expected, but now we're all wondering how big (or small) the margin is. How well (or poorly) Romney wins will determine the media spin later tonight, as well as whether we'll hear louder calls for Santorum to drop out (and let Romney wrap up the nomination) or for Newt Gingrich to drop out (so Santorum can coalesce the hard-core teabagger opposition to Romney and deny him the nomination).

It's still quite possible that Romney can't ultimately get the 1,144 delegates needed to officially earn the GOP nomination. Now, it's just a matter of whether Mittens can push everyone else out soon... Or if everyone else pushes him out come Tampa.

5:50 PM-

Perhaps Team Mittens shouldn't pop out too much champagne tonight. So far in looking at the exit polls, I'm sensing Romney only wins Illinois tonight by about 6-8%. Yes, a win is a win is a win. And yes, Mittens will get the most delegates regardless (thanks to Santorum's campaign screwing up on delegate selection again). But again, he's only barely winning a state he was expected to coast to victory in not that long ago. And if he has to spend many millions of dollars just to squeak past a campaign so incompetent it's bleeding delegates all over the place, there's a serious problem in Republican-Land.

6:10 PM-

Funny enough, Rachel Maddow is explaining on MSNBC how Mittens may not be all that secure in his "delegate plan". Apparently, Illinois' GOP primary ballot is so damned long and complicated (in having folks vote for Presidential preference AND delegates, but also allowing them to do so separately) that Santorum, Gingrich, and/or Ron Paul may actually be able to "win" votes intended for Romney if voters don't vote for Romney delegates. YIKES!

But wait, there's more! Looking at the latest results, it looks like Romney is doing well in the closest-in Chicago-Land counties, as expected, but Santorum is starting to post leads in a few exurban Chicago area counties. Ruh-roh. And as many Romney boosters feared, Santorum is mostly cleaning up downstate.

And looking at the exit polls, we can see that Santorum actually WON late breaking voters. And yes, Santorum also won all those "conservative white working class" and "tea party" aligned demographic groups that Romney continues to struggle with. Oh yes, this contest will go on. Mittens can't celebrate "victory" just yet.

6:35 PM-

OK, let's get this out of the way. Rick Santorum is batshit crazy.

If his campaign can’t be defined by his stance on either contraception or unemployment, what’s the rationale for Santorum’s marathon and increasingly long-shot candidacy? Cheering on a Christian theocracy, and then quickly backpedaling, is as close as I can get. Dennis Terry’s hysterical remarks should be chilling to anyone who values religious freedom, on the right or left (watch it here). Watching Santorum standing and clapping for the bigot made it more clear than ever that he can never lead this nation. The fact that he later backtracked and (sort of) said he disagreed with Terry’s remarks doesn’t erase the fact that when he heard them, he stood and clapped like all the other good Christians. This is the company Santorum keeps.

Yet Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney had to radically outspend "Crazy Ricky" Santorum just to (probably only narrowly) beat him in Illinois.

It’s not all good news. The run-up to Illinois demonstrated surprising cracks in Romney’s campaign — typically considered the most solid and competent — in the long primary. Reports over the suggested revealed Romney’s campaign in Illinois was as disorganized as Santorum’s — not a good sign for an operation that will need to make a quick pivot to the general election against President Obama’s incredibly efficient campaign. Romney also vastly outspent his chief rival and conducted ran a very negative campaign, the kind of thing that doesn’t do much for his Republican enthusiasm problem.

And so far, that's the big takeaway for me tonight.

Oh yes, and there's this takeaway from somewhere closer to home. Jim Rogers blogged this yesterday.

I am a liberal. I make no excuses for that, nor do I believe I am obligated to defend my position. I do not believe that I am always right. I also have the greatest respect for the leading conservatives in this country. Agree with them or not, their philosophies have been sound, constructive and productive for the last 40 years I have followed their endeavors.

The issue is not the liberal view versus the conservative view. The issue is how the lunatic and intellectually bankrupt group that calls itself conservatives has been able to kidnap and hold for ransom the Republican Party and totally destroy its heritage of sound and logical thinking.

The political successes of intellectually bankrupt people like Sharron Angle and Sarah Palin should scare all of you. Fortunately neither one of these idiots, who has no understanding of conservatism, does not understand any of this country’s problems, and certainly has no capacity to solve those problems, has done nothing more than take this nation’s focus away from supporting people in their own party who could keep this country going forward.

And IMHO he's 100% correct! As we've talked about before, today's Republican Party is becoming increasingly enamored with "tea party" radicals like Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron over pragmatic center-right problem solvers like Kenny Guinn and Bill Raggio. As we may see later tonight, Nevada Republicans continue to grapple with this frightening reality.

However, we're also seeing this play out on the national stage. Even if Mitt Romney somehow manages to sew up the nomination soon, he'll have to do so by foresaking whatever shred of moderation he once embraced to instead try to "out-teabagger" the official "tea party" approved candidates. Romney continues to alienate women, minorities, and just about every swing voter demographic around with his support of the extreme "tea party" agenda. So is Mittens really "winning"?

Greg Brower Flips... & Flops.

On "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Weathervane) tried his hand at attacking Sheila Leslie for moving into the new SD 15... But he only made himself look foolish. Why? Here's a hint.

Brower was appointed to the Senate seat to replace the late Sen. Bill Raggio, R-Reno, who resigned before the start of the 2011 session. Brower refused to speculate on his political future beyond 2012 when asked if he was considering a run for Nevada attorney general. Democrat Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto will be termed out of office in 2014.

“I am 100 percent focused on getting elected to this Senate seat,” he said.

When asked by host Sam Shad if he would commit to a full four-year term in the Senate, Brower said: “I can’t predict the future, Sam, I just don’t know what is going to happen. I’m just not even going to think beyond 2012.”

So Greg Brower is attacking Sheila Leslie for doing the proper paperwork to run in the district that she now lives in, but Brower himself won't commit to staying on the job and serving his local constituents! And remember, this isn't the first time Brower abandoned his constituents and the job he's supposed to be doing for them. As soon as Brian Sandoval appointed Dean Heller to the US Senate seat that John Ensign abandoned, Greg Brower was quick to announce his Congressional campaign... And abandon his duties as a State Senator representing Washoe County.

It might be understandable if Greg Brower is suffering from short-timer’s syndrome. He’s running to represent Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District and the Reno Republican’s state Senate seat will likely move to Clark County after redistricting.

Still, Brower’s symptoms have become so pronounced that his party’s legislative leaders recently sat him down for a talking-to about his notable absences from committee hearings and floor debates.

Brower has been present at roll call for nearly every floor session and committee meeting. He’s missed no floor votes. However, he’s developed a routine of taking extended breaks after being marked present or leaving early while his colleagues on the Education or Health and Human Services committees work late into the evening.

The practice has irritated some of his colleagues, Republican and Democrats. [...]

Brower missed large sections of the public schools hearing on April 20. Two days later, when he was absent from the higher education hearing before the Senate, Horsford, sent the sergeant-at-arms to fetch Brower from his office.

Four days later, Brower officially announced his congressional campaign.

When asked whether he has left committee or floor meetings to attend to campaign business, Brower dodged the question..

“My focus is on the session and representing my constituents,” he said. “That’s what I am here for.”

(This Sun article was written before the Nevada Supreme Court approved a new Legislature map that actually moved Brower and Leslie into the new SD 15 in western Washoe County.)

So when the NV-02 seat was wide open, Brower was quick to jump on that opportunity to run for Congress. But when that didn't work out, the game plan shifted to running for State Senate this year, only for Brower to set himself up for a run for Attorney General in 2014. Yet even as Brower's initial expectation of a smooth sail to election didn't quite pan out that way, he still won't commit to actually serving the full term!

And Greg Brower thinks he can legitimately attack Sheila Leslie for simply filing in the district she now lives in? Who's he kidding?

But wait, there's more. He also had the gall to say this on "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday.

Brower also defended Sandoval for his announcement last week that he would continue a package of expiring tax increases into the 2013-15 budget to avoid any further budget cuts to education. Brower voted against continuing the 2009 taxes in the 2011 session even though Sandoval supported the decision as a compromise to finalize the current budget.

“I think what the governor is trying to do is move this state forward,” he said. “And that means leadership on real issues like the budget. And I think that’s what we saw last week and that’s what we’re going to continue to see. And to the extent this governor is going to take a leadership role in moving this state forward, I stand solidly behind him.”

Again, who's he kidding? Greg Brower voted AGAINST the final budget agreement that Brian Sandoval signed into law! But of course, that vote happened just as Brower was kicking his Congressional campaign into high gear. Shortly after sine die, Brower appeared at this NV-02 G-O-TEA candidate forum and professed his love for all things "tea party".

There was little disagreement voiced among the three, who Las Vegas Sun political reporter Jon Ralston has dubbed “the leading candidates.”

All said they were supportive of Ryan’s budget plan, and that they would have voted for the Pence Amendment to defund Planned Parenthood. Education, they all agreed, should be dealt with on a local level, and the role of the Department of Education should be highly diminished, or the Department should be gotten rid of all together. On energy, all called for more domestic sources of energy, whether it be green energy, offshore drilling, or nuclear energy.

Amodei disputed the use of the phrase “green energy” saying that term “is another way of saying politically correct energy.”

Asked about their feelings on the Tea Party movement, Lippold and Brower expressed hearty approval.

“Any time you have citizens getting involved directly in how their government is run, it is a good thing for the United States,” said Lippold.

“I couldn’t agree more,” said Brower. “Any movement that makes government more accountable is a movement I can get behind.” [Emphasis mine.]

Oh yes, Greg Brower loved him some "tea party" when he wanted teabaggers' votes in the NV-02 special election. But apparently now that he's simultaneously "pivoting himself to the center" in a more evenly split and increasingly Democratic leaning State Senate district and "angling" himself for a future statewide run, Brower is abandoning the "po' lil' teabaggers" and embracing Brian Sandoval's and Michael Roberson's newfound love of extending taxes and funding public education.

Hmmm... Who could have guessed this?

(Jump to 13:30 on the video below. Keep going to 9:50 for all the good stuff.)



At least give Sheila Leslie credit for refusing to morph on TV into something she's really not. She's always been consistent in stating what she believes in and who she wants to work for, and that doesn't look to be changing any time soon.

Greg Brower, on the other hand, is now trying to look "moderate" after spending the last year pandering to "tea party" extremists, voting against badly needed school funding that Brian Sandoval now admits we can't afford to take away next year, and even voting against basic civil rights, such as ensuring fair employment and creating a safe learning environment. Hell, Brower even voted against critical infrastructure improvement projects that invested in our state and put more Nevadans to work. Greg Brower may now want to talk a good "moderate" game, but his actual votes in the Legislature last year tell a totally different and rather "TEA" tinged story.

So perhaps before Greg Brower tries again to attack Sheila Leslie for moving into the district she now lives in, he should take a look at his own record and try to give SD 15 voters an honest answer as to who he really serves.

#NVLeg: Halseth's Gone & Leslie's Moved On... What's Next?

I'm quite sure I know what you're thinking. Now that Elizabeth Halseth is out, what happens next in Senate District 9 in Southern Nevada? Let me do my best to explain what's to come.

First, we have filing. And from what I've heard, it's too late for anyone currently living outside the new district boundaries to move in and campaign here. SD 9 has now been compacted to just the Southwest Vegas suburbs of Summerlin South (south of Red Rock Country Club), the western edge of Spring Valley, and the Enterprise communities of Mountain's Edge, Rhodes Ranch, and Southern Highlands. Sorry, aspiring carpetbaggers.

And so far, everything I heard Friday afternoon still stands. The new district boundaries will indeed be used in the special election, and the SD 9 special election will follow the same schedule as the other regularly scheduled Legislature elections. This means filing will be open until March 16, then the primary will occur on June 12. And of course, this also means SD 9 will ultimately be decided in the general election on November 6.

And so far, the same schedule looks to be in place for the Senate District 13 special election in Northern Nevada triggered by Sheila Leslie's big move to Senate District 15. The new SD 13 (formerly Washoe Senate 1) contains mostly the urban core of Reno and Sparks, while the new SD 15 (formerly Washoe Senate 3) takes in a large portion of Western Washoe County from White Lake to Sun Valley to Northwest Reno to Mount Rose.

Now that Sheila Leslie will be running in SD 15, Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) announced yesterday that she will run to fill the vacancy in SD 13.

“Northern Nevadans need strong representatives they can count on to get the job done,” Smith said in a statement. “While I believe there are some very promising signs that things are beginning to get better in our state, we have a long way to go. I am running for the state Senate to continue fighting for a better education system, a healthier economy, and a more efficient and effective government for Nevada. After spending the past few days talking with family, friends and community members, I feel this is the right decision at the right time.”

Leslie resigned her Senate Distrct 1 seat effective immediately Wednesday and plans to run against state Sen. Greg Brower, R-Reno, in Senate District 15.

District 1, which encompasses portions of Reno and Sparks, becomes District 13 in this election cycle after redistricting. The district has a solid Democratic edge in registered voters, about 18 percent. Leslie won election by 30 points in 2010, and former state Sen. Bernice Mathews, D-Reno, held the seat for 16 years before term limits ended her legislative career.

Now as the RGJ article quoted above states, not too much is really at stake in SD 13. It's still a heavily Democratic district. And as long as no other strong Democrat emerges to challenge Debbie Smith in the primary, then expect to see Senator Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) making waves in the next legislative session (next year).

No, the real battle will be farther west in SD 15. And down south, SD 9 will join SD 5 (Henderson-Green Valley), SD 6 (Las Vegas-Summerlin), and SD 18 (Northwest Las Vegas) in determining control of the Nevada State Senate. If Republicans win at least 4 of these 5 seats, then they take over the Senate. But if Democrats manage to sweep all 5 of these races, then Nevada Dems will finally reach the magic 2/3 number to secure a veto-proof supermajority and relegate Michael Roberson (and his extreme "tea party" agenda) to the sidelines.

This is why Roberson is so scared now. And this is why the "big bid'ness" establishment will be forking out big checks to the likes of Greg Brower and Steve Kirk (a GOP candidate in SD 5). Again, as we've been saying here for a while (and Jon Ralston has admitted on Twitter), Republican hopes of flipping the Senate have diminished greatly in the last 100 hours. However, they still intend to go all in for the #NVLeg campaign just for the sake of saving enough seats to obstruct any kind of progressive agenda in the 77th session.

So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better. So remember not to "stop at the top"... Keep going down that ballot and vote for progress.

Where in the World Is Elizabeth Halseth?

Uh oh. Yesterday, Nevada Republicans were panicking over Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) opting to run against Greg Brower (R-Reno) in the new SD 13 in the western Reno suburbs. Today, they're trying to deal with one of their own gone AWOL.

Assemblywoman Marilyn Kirkpatrick, D-North Las Vegas, said she was struggling to schedule an interim committee meeting on how taxes are distributed among local governments because [Senator Elizabeth] Halseth [R-Enterprise], who was appointed by her caucus to sit on the committee, has not returned calls.

“We’ve had a hard time reaching Ms. Halseth to determine her role,” Kirkpatrick said. “The last thing I’d want is for a Senate Republican not to be represented on the committee.”

While the tax distribution issue — the consolidated tax — is important in the world of local government finances, Halseth’s absence raises a larger question that could have big political ramifications: Will she return to the Legislature in 2013?

If Halseth moves out of her district or resigns ahead of the June 12 primary, it would put her seat on the ballot. Because of redistricting, her seat has a significant Democratic voter registration edge.

If she stays, however, Halseth is in the middle of a four-year term and her seat would not be open until 2014. She was elected in 2010 and became the youngest elected state senator.

And that's what scares Republicans the most. Because Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a significant margin in the new SD 9, and because the district probably voted around 58% Obama 2008 and 53% Reid 2010, this district will be incredibly difficult for Republicans to hold if put to election again this year. So right now, it looks like Republican Caucus Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) will be trying to delay Halseth's removal from the Senate just long enough so that it doesn't go to special election. As long as Halseth resigns after the 2012 filing deadline, Clark County Commissioners may be forced to appoint a Republican replacement for Halseth that lasts until the 2014 election.

But wait, how can he do this?

Well, the main problem here is that Halseth herself won't tell us where she's now living. Apparently she may technically be maintaining a Las Vegas address, but I've heard from multiple sources that Halseth is actually living in Alaska with her new boyfriend. But since her cell phone has been disconnected, her Twitter page and web site are down, and she hasn't responded to any media inquiries, no one knows for sure where she really is and what she's really doing. And as long as Roberson can keep everyone in the dark past March 16, he can be able to hold off a special election this year...

Or can he?

According to state law, if at least 25% of registered voters who voted in the last election (when the office was on the ballot) sign a recall petition, a recall election can happen. So may we see an election anyway, even if Michael Roberson keeps trying to run out the clock?

As we were discussing yesterday, the whole conversation on Legislature elections has changed dramatically in the last 36 hours. Greg Brower now has a real race on his hands up north, while Republicans now worry about a very vulnerable seat opening down south. And if Democrats can find the answer to the question on everyone's mind right now (as well as the title of this blog diary), this seat will indeed open up... And dash Republican hopes of retaking the State Senate.

Election Results & Analysis... Before Election Is Over

Come on, we already know what the pundits will be saying.

If Bob Turner wins today...

... it means [...]

Russian/former Soviet immigrants with no historic ties to the Democratic Party but who strongly support a conservative Israeli government supported a Republican for Congress in part because they believe, erroneously, that Barack Obama is anti-Israel. (Many of them probably also believe he is a Muslim.) The most conservative non-Staten Island district in New York City supported a rich "outsider" candidate over a sloppy and unexciting Democratic politician. Barack Obama is in trouble among very, very conservative pro-Israel voters, as he already was before. The political makeup of the House of Representatives has barely changed and this district is likely to cease to exist soon. Addressing the myth that he's anti-Israel is probably one of the least important things President Obama needs to do between now and the next election, because he still has the support of most of the American Jewish community. Regardless, media attention paid to this race will give him even more trouble passing his "Jobs Bill."

Oh, and...

If David Weprin wins today...

... it means [...]

A Democrat won a traditionally Democratic district in New York City, despite a surprisingly strong showing from a wealthy challenger. The district will likely cease to exist soon. The press will not announce this victory as a vote of national support for Obama's "mandate" and will in fact soon forget all about this race because "favorite beats underdog" is not a very entertaining story.

Oh, and there's that other special election closer to home.

The winner of the Amodei-Marshall race will serve the remainder of Heller's current House term, which runs through 2012. He or she will have to run for the office again next year to keep the job.

By then, it may well be in a very different district, since the task of drawing new congressional district maps has been placed in the hands of Carson District Judge Todd Russell, who has named a commission to assist with that job.

For today's election, however, the district is the same one Heller ran in a year ago. It includes all of 16 Nevada counties and a small piece of Clark.

Amodei, a former state senator, has said repeatedly he doesn't believe in raising taxes to fix the nation's debt because it would further delay any economic recovery. He has signed a no-tax pledge to emphasize that point, saying the answer is to make government smaller, not raise the debt ceiling.

Marshall, currently in her second term as state treasurer, has said she would keep the Bush tax cuts for most Americans but eliminate those breaks on the rich. She also said she would eliminate tax loopholes for wealthy corporations, granting them breaks only for creating jobs.

Oh yes, that contest between the Republican who refuses to state what he'd actually do in Congress... Versus the Democrat who refuses to campaign as a Democrat. What did Harry Truman say about the choice between the real Republican and the one pretending to be a Republican? What if both candidates dance around the GOP platform?

Of course, the TV pundits won't be addressing any of the real issues that have Americans worried. They'll talk about "the economy" as if it's just another political ping-pong, but it means something totally different for those still suffering under it.

NV-02: Kate Marshall Unplugged

Yesterday, Southern Nevada actually had a chance to meet a Congressional candidate. Normally, this wouldn't be a big deal. We see campaigns come and go all the time... Except for those who live in the 2nd Congressional District. Unfortunately because the last round of redistricting led to so much gross gerrymandering, NV-02 was redrawn in 2001 to dip into Clark County neighborhoods as far apart as Primm, Anthem Highlands, The Northeast Valley, and Mesquite. So all too often in the last decade, they've been lost in the shuffle as no one really bothered to pay attention to them...

Until now.

Kate Marshall is running in the NV-02 special election to fill this seat vacated by Dean Heller when Brian Sandoval appointed him to the US Senate. And yesterday, Kate actually came here to Clark County to meet with voters. She did a free "meet & greet" in Sun City Anthem in Henderson, then came down to Green Valley (also in Henderson) for a low-dollar grassroots fundraiser.

I was at the low-dollar grassroots fundraiser yesterday (since my neighbor who lives across the wash & golf course from me hosted it!), and I took some video from the Q&A session. If you're as much of a policy wonk as I am, you'll enjoy these next 24 minutes.



And if not, here's a quick summary:

Afghanistan- Kate favors bringing our troops home, but only as long as the military commanders on the ground approve of the timeline and no troops are put in danger.

Social Security & Medicare- Kate made it crystal clear yesterday that she opposes ANY effort to cut either program or do anything else to harm seniors' health care.

Climate Change- Kate favors comprehensive climate legislation and aggressive green jobs programs to get Nevada working again, and she would like to see more legislation to allow for reasonable renewable energy development on available public lands.

Wall Street- Kate said she would like to see prosecutions of those whose misdeeds contributed to the 2008 crash.

Budget- Kate described how she's worked to balance her budget in the Nevada Treasurer's office and exclaimed she isn't afraid to look for wasteful spending and strip it out. However she also said "across the board" cuts should be off the table, as it would not be fair or smart to slash public education, Medicaid, or other vitally needed services.

Immigration- Kate supports comprehensive immigration reform that includes smart border security and dealing fairly with the undocumented already here.

And there's even more in the video if you'd like to watch. And if you'd like to help us win here, please sign up to volunteer. Thanks!

NV-02: Mediscared

(Also at Daily Kos)

Who knew this would yet again be THE hot button issue in yet another special Congressional election? It all seems to be coming down to Medicare, Medicare, & Medicare.

In [the NY-26 special election], Democrat Kathy Hochul went up early and hard against her Republican opponent, accusing her of seeking to kill Medicare because she supported Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget proposal. It took weeks for Republican Jane Corwin to respond.

When Hochul won the heavily GOP district, the Republicans-want-to-kill-Medicare message quickly became a national strategy, and Democrats posited that by using it they could take back the House.

Marshall has followed that playbook, focusing two of her three attack ads on Amodei’s evolving position on Ryan’s plan to revamp Medicare.

But neither national Republicans nor Amodei are letting the attacks go unchallenged. An Amodei TV ad features his mother and accuses Marshall of lying about his record.

This is what has Mark Amodei freaking out.

In addition to pushing the national momentum on Medicare, Marshall’s campaign thinks Amodei is vulnerable on the issue. The district is home to many seniors.

Early in the campaign, Amodei called Ryan’s proposal a good starting point. When he was working to get the Republican central committee’s nomination, he said he would “cozy up” to Ryan to get his plan passed.

A local Reno news station tried to debunk Mark Amodei's misleading ads...



But honestly, even KTVN got some facts wrong! For instance, the "Medicare cuts" that Amodei claims Marshall supports, and that KTVN claims were passed as part of the Affordable Care Act last year, are really provisions ensuring that Medicare funds are redirected to better patient care instead of being wasted on insurance industry profits (aka "Medicare Advantage") and other forms of waste & abuse. In addition, the Affordable Care Act actually improves Medicare coverage by lowering prescription drug costs and providing free preventive care!

This is what President Obama and the Democratic 111th Congress did to strengthen and improve health care for seniors.



Now contrast this with what House Republicans have been pushing for.



And Mark Amodei most definitely supports Paul Ryan's GOP-teabagger plan to kill Medicare. And despite what Amodei claims, the fact of the matter is that "The Paul Ryan Kill Medicare Plan" that he supported will indeed affect seniors currently on Medicare.

Amodei can spin all he wants, but the facts are simply not on his or Paul Ryan's side.

That’s not how Ryan’s plan works. For one thing, it eliminates traditional fee-for-service Medicare. For another, Its savings come from capping the growth of federal spending at inflation — which is much, much, much slower than the rate of health-care cost growth. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that, in 2022, Ryan’s plan would have a typical beneficiary shouldering 61 percent of the cost of a standard plan, and by 2030, because the government would limit its contributions, they’d be paying 68 percent. [... I]t’s absolutely central to how the Ryan budget saves money. It’s the core of his proposal.

And considering this along with Ryan's and Congressional Republicans' increasingly ugly poll numbers, no wonder why Amodei is so scared that he's trying his hardest to run away from his support for "Ryancare". He can run, but can he really hide? Not if we don't let him!

NV-02: Mark Amodei's Two Faces

We have a campaign that's rapidly heating up! Take a look at Kate Marshall's new ads.





I knew this was coming. Mark Amodei invited it.

Mark Amodei is trying to sail in the winds of Tea Party extreme conservatism that has swept the nation. He’s not alone. Somehow the GOP has regressed into a pissing contest over who are really the authentic conservatives.

Mark Amodei, Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller and John McCain all used to be different. Each has played a much more moderate tune in the past. Some of their moves would just not be acceptable today, perhaps even warranting raised eyebrows, questions of patriotism or accusations of socialism. At the very least, their past behavior is just not acceptable in the Republican Party anymore.

Today, Kate Marshall highlighted this phenomenon in a television commercial, targeting her opponent’s record on taxes. He did indeed sponsor a tax increase to the tune of a billion dollars in 2003. Socialist! You can argue all you want about what Kate Marshall would have done, but if you don’t see the inherent hypocrisy in Mark Amodei’s rhetoric today, you are missing the point entirely.

Does he just expect all of us to forget his own words and deeds in 2003? All of a sudden, he's become a born-again teabagger?

It's just pathetic to watch Mark Amodei run away from his own record. He can run, but can he really hide? Kate Marshall seems to be making sure he can't.

NV-02: Kate Marshall Wins NSDP Endorsement

No surprise here...

State Treasurer Kate Marshall easily won her party’s nomination Saturday in the special election race for U.S. Sen. Dean Heller’s former congressional seat.

Marshall vied against two other Democrats, political newcomers, for the nomination of the Nevada Democratic Party’s central committee at its meeting in Reno. Former regent Nancy Price, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat last year, dropped out of the running for the nomination on Friday.

Marshall won 117 of the 122 votes cast by the central committee.

The nomination sets up a potential head-to-head between Marshall and Republican former state Sen. Mark Amodei, of Carson City, to serve the remainder of Heller’s term in the 2nd Congressional District, a sprawling district that covers all of northern Nevada and includes a slice of Clark County.

Although both parties have nominated candidates, it will be up to the Nevada Supreme Court to decide whether it is Amodei vs. Marshall or an open ballot free-for-all that includes all 29 candidates who have filed with the Secretary of State to run in the Sept. 13 election.

So what does this mean? Well, this may have had a role in it.

Kate Marshall has won two state-wide elections. She is considered to have broad appeal. She is from the north and knows the people intimately. Kate is known for connecting with voters and winning their confidence. Pundits say this may be the closest election in CD2 history, with a good chance of a Democrat victory, thanks to unpopular ideological leanings in the GOP today.

NV-02 is historically a Republican stronghold, but the unique factors of this election may lead to a very surprising result. And remember, these party nominations may not last long. The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately decide who will appear on the final ballot. That's why I'm referring to what happened yesterday as the Democratic Party endorsing Marshall, and what happened last weekend as the Republican Party endorsing Amodei. Should the high court overturn the lower court's ruling, the general election will be more than just Marshall vs. Amodei.

So now, both major parties have endorsed in NV-02. At this point, the ball is in the court...

NV-02: Maybe Xenophobia & Teabagger Scare Tactics Aren't the Answer?

(Also at Daily Kos)



Mark Amodei may be basking in the radioactive glow of his daringly xenophobic campaign ad. But ask Nevada tourism officials about it, and they're getting worried.

That concern is real, said [Republican] Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who has spent considerable energy developing Nevada’s Chinese tourism market.

Krolicki described the relationship with China as important and delicate. He noted the value of Nevada’s exports to China has grown to $456 million from $13.6 million in the past decade.

“Certainly it raised an eyebrow,” Krolicki said of the ad. “But I take it as a flare glaring over Washington, D.C., and its policies and deficits and not a negative to our Chinese partners.”

One economic development official, who didn’t want to publicly criticize Amodei, said he has been contacted by Chinese consulate officials who were irritated by the ad.

“I think they feel like ‘why do you even have to use us in some kind of pejorative way to make a message,’” the official said. “This ad makes you have to go through the calculation of ‘are we being racist or beating up on the horrible financial decisions made in Washington D.C.?’

“The fact is China is a very important trade partner for Nevada and this stuff isn’t helpful.”

So why is Mark Amodei stooping down to use "this stuff" in a desperate ploy to boost his campaign? Maybe the same reason why Sharron Angle stooped down to similar "stuff" last year?





They both have to distract from their own records. We all remember Angle's story... But what about Amodei? Well, it's complicated. First off, he's afraid of NV-02 becoming the next NY-26...

Firing the opening shot on the debt ceiling is also an attempt to pivot away from Wisconsin Republican Rep. Paul Ryan’s divisive budget plan and, specifically, the controversial Medicare provisions Democrats view as a lightning rod with the political voltage to rocket the party back within grasp of a House majority.

It’s been less than a month since Democrats’ surprise win in a special upstate New York congressional race that was defined by Ryan’s plan. Though the dynamics of the upcoming Nevada race don’t provide an exact parallel, they feel similar messaging can only pay dividends in a district where they’ll again be underdogs.

“This ad does not mention the words ‘Nevada’ or ‘jobs.’ Considering Amodei announced his support for the Heller-Heck plan to end Medicare last Saturday, it’s no surprise his first ad highlights how out of touch Nevada Republicans are,” Nevada Democratic Party spokesman Zach Hudson saidin a swipe at all three of his GOP targets, including freshman Rep. Joe Heck.

During a debate prior to the selection meeting last week, Amodei praised the Ryan blueprint. “I like a lot of what he has to say in terms of Medicare. I think that’s excellent.”

Oh, yes. You heard them right. Amodei doesn't want us even think of the word "Medicare"... Especially if it's used in the same sentence as Paul Ryan and privatization!





After all, look at what happens when House Republicans have to answer about their support for Paul Ryan's "Kill Medicare" plan!



Hold on, this sounds familiar. Where have we heard this before?



But in one respect, Amodei provides a new angle on this. If he's that serious about not voting for any revision to the federal debt ceiling, then he must support raising taxes, cutting Medicare & Social Security, and/or cutting military spending. So which "poison" will Amodei pick? I have a feeling he doesn't want any of us to remember his own words and deeds in 2003.

The whole McCarthy-esque red-scare theme of the ad is bad enough. But pledging to never vote to raise the debt ceiling is to call for financial suicide on a nationwide scale. It is like telling the bank you are going to stop making payments on your mortgage and credit cards. Banks don’t take too kindly to things like this, and the result would not be good for your credit rating. Not raising the debt ceiling — which would be required even if Democrats adopted the recently-passed GOP budget bill — would destroy the country’s credit rating and cause interest rates on government securities to skyrocket, making the debt problem far, far worse. It’s hard to predict the collateral damage such an action would have on the economy in general, but it wouldn’t be good. [...]

Of course Amodei and other Republicans are playing politics with the national debt, which they had no problem with when George W. Bush was racking up more than $5 trillion on the nation’s credit card, or when Ronald Reagan tripled the debt in the 1980s.

But for Amodei to take the extreme position and say he would vote against raising the debt ceiling is totally uncharacteristic of the person I know. After all, Amodei was the co-sponsor of the 2003 bill that created the largest tax increase in state history at that time, a compromise he worked out with Democrats. This doesn’t sound anything like the Amodei who is now threatening to destroy the country’s credit rating. It’s as if some evil spirit has taken control of the old Amodei and created a monster. [...]

Amodei’s transformation from moderate to crazy conservative happened so head-snappingly fast that it makes me wonder if the man has any core principles. Perhaps the moderate Amodei we saw before was just an illusion, the performance of a politician who just tells people whatever they want to hear, regardless of the truth.

But one thing for certain is that fire of ambition I saw in Amodei before is in total control now. It is his master, and his only constituent. If he does get elected to Congress, good luck trying to get him to do anything that doesn’t involve feeding his ambition.

So who is Mark Amodei? Really? He seemed quite moderate when he served in Carson City. Hell, he even voted for the largest tax increase in state history in 2003! He didn't have a problem cutting that deal before when he knew Nevada needed more revenue.

But now that he's running for Congress and desperate to win the teabaggers' favor, Mark Amodei wants to force America to default on our debt and rip apart at the seams the very social safety net our society depends upon? What happened?

Maybe this is why Mark Amodei wants to distract us with his xenophobic "Red Scare" ad.

NV-02: Why Are These Republicans Against JOBS & Energy Independence?

(Also at Daily Kos)

Last week, Reno News & Review had an interesting article on Nevada experiencing more of the dangerous effects of climate change without us previously realizing it.

A string of tornados. Major international floods. Record-breaking wildfires across the Southwest. And—far less destructive but more noticeable to Northern Nevada residents—a freakishly wet and chilly May, making it the spring that never was. It’s left many to scratch their heads and say, “Maybe there’s something to this climate change thing.” If climate change were happening in Nevada, what would it look like, and are we seeing it now?

To the second question, the Desert Research Institute’s Dr. Kelly Redmond, says, “Yes, I think we probably are.” Redmond is deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center. He compares recognizing climate change to noticing signs of aging. Every once in awhile, we have some episode—we discover we can’t party as hard as we used to, or we have a wrinkle, a gray hair, an illness—and we realize that while we don’t see it every day, we are undoubtedly aging. We don’t notice global warming every day, either, but a vast amount of data shows the Earth is warming, and the effects of it are both subtle and blunt. Sometimes climate change looks like a raging wildfire, sometimes like a butterfly where it never was before. [...]

Redmond says everybody should be skeptical of data by itself. When he first saw temperatures on research thermometers rising, he thought something was wrong with the thermometers. But even with new thermometers and placement of them, evidence of warming remained. He’s also seen evidence of snowmelt occurring one to three weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago. Lilacs and honeysuckles are blooming earlier. The biggest fires in the history of the Western U.S. have been in the past 10 years. Pine beetles in Canada, previously kept in check by cold snaps, have jumped the continental divide and are headed down the East coast. Chipmunks, mice and voles have moved up in elevation from where they lived 100 years ago. Most butterflies are also slowly moving north.

“All these bits and pieces of evidence, all these compasses, are basically pointing in the same direction. Maybe one or two of the compasses are broken. But if they’re all pointing in the same direction, you pay attention. This is very much like solving a crime. There’s a standard of proof in criminology, and we should have some kind of standard of proof in our head for when we decide to believe something or not. And then, are you willing to change your mind based on the evidence you see? I think most people’s minds can be changed by what they see. If we listen to what the world’s telling us, we’ll get it. The question is, will we get it fast enough?”

It's becoming increasingly difficult to deny the sobering reality of the coming climate crisis... Except apparently if one wants the endorsement of the Nevada Republican Party. If we're to accept the "energy policy" prescriptions coming from the Republicans (including Nevada Republican Party endorsed candidate, Mark Amodei) running in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, we may actually never get it! Go ahead and listen for yourself as they refuse to even acknowledge the realities of climate change and deride "green energy" as "not responsible".

Face, meet palm. Well, at least I'm not alone. Mr. Spectator was also disgusted.

[...] The candidates differed in no appreciable way on issues. They predictably answered litmus questions from the party faithful on the gamut of right wing nut job topics, but I found their comments on “Green Energy” the most telling. Here is the exact question: “It is often touted that Nevada is the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy. Address the cost to the consumer and reconcile the political versus that cost.” What’s not well hidden in this poorly worded question is an inherent denial of human caused climate change. There is no reason to develop more expensive renewable energy if climate change is a myth concocted by left wing scientists. We want the cheapest energy source possible to be most economically competitive. Corporations can be trusted to not grossly pollute for profit, can’t they? [...]

If the scientific realty of human caused climate change is not front and center when setting energy policy and priorities, these are not the people we should be sending to Washington, at least to represent me. From their “green energy” responses we do not know how the candidates stand on climate change, but apparently these fellows need to pander to flat earth Nevada Republicans who are still in a tizzy President Obama was not actually born in this country. All three candidates seem to value science if it makes money or war, but not when science points out pollution and environmental destruction on a global scale.

Clearly Mark Amodei, Kirk Lippold, and Greg Brower don't want to recognize real science. So instead, they run to the hocus pocus "magic" of dirty coal, oil, nuclear, and the rest of the failed fossil fuel industry. Lovely.

Here's the problem. One, we simply can't afford to give up the potential for much needed jobs.







Good jobs are already being created right here in Nevada, and even more will be created if we invest more in renewable energy development and energy efficiency.

And here's another big issue. Mark Amodei likes to complain about the "high cost" of renewable energy, but he failed to mention the real costs of dirty fossil fuels. Solar power is becoming more affordable and accessible as companies continue to innovate with new technology and solar becomes more widespread & mainstream. However as renewable energy costs have dropped over the last decade, fossil fuel energy costs continue to rise as supply becomes more limited and the many hidden costs of pollution are revealed.

Even our REPUBLICAN Governor and Lieutenant Governor recognize the need for Nevada to go green with renewables.



So even prominent Republicans here in Nevada recognize the need to go green. Why don't Mark Amodei and the other Republicans running in NV-02?

Mark Amodei to Nevada: Drop Dead (You Red!)

(Also at Daily Kos)



So Mark Amodei, just after being crowned the GOP nominee in NV-02 (we'll see how long that lasts!), releases some silly ad full of xenophobia.

But the debt, THE DEBT!!! What about THE DEBT??!! Well, here are some facts about the national debt that Mark Amodei doesn't want you to know.



When George Bush was President, Republican Congressional leaders voted 19 times to raise the national debt ceiling by $4 trillion! Funny enough, I don't remember Mark Amodei screaming then about REPUBLICANS "surrendering to China"... But I do remember REPUBLICANS in Congress chiding anyone who tried to negotiate budget reforms into any debt ceiling vote.



So what changed? President Obama is now in office. And we're just barely getting out of a brutal recession that would only worsen if Mark Amodei has his way and we reduce public investment exactly when the economy needs more investment.

And by the way, why does Mark Amodei hate China? Clearly, he hasn't received the memo from the great titans of Nevada industry!



Yes, that's right. Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts International, and Las Vegas Sands all have huge investments in Macau... Which happens to be a part of "BIG BAD COMMUNIST CHINA!!!" So is Mark Amodei ready to call these great Nevada capitalist institutions "COMMUNISTS!!!" for investing so much in China?

And is Mark Amodei also ready to hurl that same insult on the entire Las Vegas Strip corridor? As international tourism continues to pick up and the weak dollar continues to lure even more tourists to visit America, the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority (LVCVA) plans to invest another $3.5 million in international promotion, including opening an office in CHINA (!!!), in hopes of encouraging more of those international tourists to include Las Vegas in their itineraries.

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority board of directors [last week] approved contracts for 10 international offices and an extension of its advertising agreement with R&R Partners as it said goodbye to five elected officials, including its chairman, Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.

The two-year deals for international representation run from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2014, and will cost the authority $1.7 million in fiscal year 2013 and $1.8 million in 2014.

In addition to approving offices in Canada, Mexico, Japan, several western European nations, Australia, China, Brazil and Russia, the board authorized a request for proposals for representation in South Korea, India and France.

The authority is developing a strategy to increase the percentage of Las Vegas visitors from other countries from the current 18 percent to 30 percent within 10 years. Last year, 6.7 million international visitors came to Southern Nevada and spent an estimated $6.6 billion, which would support 58,000 jobs.

International visitors stay longer and spend more money than their domestic counterparts. The U.S. Commerce Department says international visitation to the United States is expected to grow by 49 percent through 2016 and LVCVA President and CEO Rossi Ralenkotter said Las Vegas needs to take the opportunity to get a good share of those visitors.

So when will Mark Amodei call out the BIG BAD COMMUNISTS!!! at LVCVA?

Let's face it: Our nation will suffer immensely if the debt ceiling is not raised very soon. We simply can't afford for the federal government to shut down after defaulting on its debt. All it would do is cause a global economic catastrophe unseen since The Great Depression.

And guess what? If all that comes to pass and the world falls into deeper recession, maybe even depression, following a failure to raise the federal debt ceiling, then I doubt Las Vegas will be able to bring in all those foreign tourists we had hoped for. And last I checked, Las Vegas tourism and gaming are the biggest source of revenue for the entire State of Nevada.

So does Mark Amodei really want to further cripple our state by killing what just happens to be propping up Nevada's sickly economy at the moment? Think of all the jobs Nevada would lose if Mark Amodei and the teabaggers had their way in holding our country hostage over the debt ceiling. And think of what prospective international travelers think of people in our government essentially spitting on them and their culture (which is what Mark Amodei is essentially doing). And again, why are they so gung-ho to push the economy off the cliff now when they refused to do anything about George Bush's deficit spending five years ago?

I smell something fishy here. Am I the only one?

Shocker in New York... Upset in Nevada?

Last night, DC pundits were shocked by what they thought was impossible.

Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in New York’s special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY). Despite the $2.36 million spent by groups like Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to keep the district red and the $60 per vote Corwin spent herself, Hochul secured a clear victory in a traditionally Republican district [...]

Viewed as a referendum on House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare, Hochul’s victory exemplifies the American public’s overwhelming disgust with the GOP push to force seniors to bear the burden of increasing health costs. Expecting a loss, several Republicans — including Corwin herself — tried to assert the election had nothing to do with Ryan’s Medicare plan. But DCCC chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) outlined the three reasons that Corwin lost the election: “[I]n alphabetical order, Medicare, Medicare and Medicare.”

Apparently, Paul Ryan's disgusting "roadmap" to destroy the American middle class proved to be quite the political stink bomb. Even Republicans admitted early on that this special election would be a referendum on their plan to unravel the American social safety net, which starts by ending Medicare. And now, Democrats are poised to use this NY-26 election as a launch pad to retake Congress.

"We can ensure we do not decimate Medicare," Hochul said. "We will keep the promises made to our seniors who have spent their lives paying into Medicare, so they can count on health care when they need it most."

If Democrats have their way, there will be a lot more speeches along those lines come November 2012. The chairs of both legislative election committees made clear on Tuesday that they believe they have found a winning formula they intend to use elsewhere.

"The election last night showed that Democrats have the keys to drive the budget debate and play offense in 2012," Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. "The implications of this election extend to Senate races in battleground states and red states across the country. The results provide clear evidence that Democratic senators and senate candidates will be able to play offense across the country by remaining focused on the Republican effort to end Medicare and force seniors to pay thousands more for health care costs."

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said that the party had "served notice to the Republicans" that the Medicare issue could hurt them.

"Even in one of the most Republican districts, seniors and independent voters rejected the Republican plan to end Medicare," he said. "The American people will continue to hold House Republicans accountable for their plan to end Medicare from now until election day 2012."

For Rob Zerban, a Democrat running against GOP budget guru Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in 2012, the Hochul race was an instructive boost to his campaign hopes.

"I just am overwhelmed at the results from this election. It's a harbinger of things to come," he told TPM over the phone on Tuesday night. "I'm certainly going to make this a key issue in the 1st Congressional District in Wisconsin. ... Democrats are going to focus on how we can actualy shore up, strengthen, and keep Medicare solvent, and this will be a clear distinction in the 2012 cycle."

So can this be another factor that shakes up the already zany special election in Nevada's own 2nd Congressional District? The legal drama over how the election itself will be conducted ("Ballot Royale?" Or behind closed doors?) is proving to be a giant hot mess with none other than Dean Heller at the center of it. For quite some time, the focal point of the NV-02 special has been the (at times hilarious) cast of characters running. But now, is there a chance this will change and... GASP! ... the election may actually be decided on policy?

Don't laugh just yet. Notice these numbers (via DB).

Republicans falsely claim Nevada seniors will not be impacted by the GOP’s plan, but starting next year, more than 26,700 Nevada seniors will be forced to pay $15 million more in prescription drug costs [if the Ryan Budget is passed]. The Republican budget also slashes billions in health care through Medicaid, putting seniors at risk.

Specifically:

The Republican plan to end Medicare will increase out-of-pocket health care costs for a typical 65 year-old Nevada senior by $5,862 in 2022 – more than double the cost under current law.

The Republican plan could force at least 7,800 Nevada seniors to pay over $828,000 more for annual wellness visits in 2012.

In Nevada, more than 26,700 seniors would pay $15 million more for prescription drugs in 2012 alone under the Republican plan.

By turning Medicaid into a block grant program, the Republican plan could cost Nevada at least 9,600 private-sector jobs over the next five years.

In Nevada, the Republican plan could cut $1.7 billion in federal health care funding for seniors and the disabled through Medicaid, including life-saving nursing home care.”

I guess that's why Mark Amodei is already running scared and refusing to specifically endorse the Ryan Plan. However, Kirk Lippold has enthusiastically endorsed Ryan's plan. And in the not-all-that-distant past, all three Republican men have embraced it.

Amodei says he likes the "honesty" of the deep spending cuts found in the 2012 budget proposal from U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican and House Budget Committee chairman, whose plan clashes with President Barack Obama's competing proposal. Brower likes the Ryan proposal, too, and says its plan to reduce corporate taxes while keeping President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich "could spur the economic activity we so desperately need." Lippold, a retired Navy commander, says Ryan's plan is a good blueprint that "sets forth some aggressive goals."

Meanwhile, I think we already know what Sharron Angle thinks about the Ryan Plan...





I think we know what's next. But funny enough, it's not just the usual Sharrontology. In fact, all the above mentioned Republicans have in some way endorsed Ryan's plan to destroy Medicare and undermine the middle class. Even if they try to run away and distance themselves from this, they will just look as silly as Jane Corwin did in New York's 26th Congressional District.

So maybe Mr. Gleaner will get his wish come true after all? Maybe the special election in Nevada's 2nd will be decided on the issues (not just the personalities) after all?

NV-02: Nevada GOP Chair Enters Special Election, Screws Over Nevada GOP

Haha.

Nevada Republican Party Chairman Mark Amodei became fourth Republican to enter the special election contest for the 2nd Congressional District today, setting up a possible path to victory for wildcard Sharron Angle or a Democrat.

Amodei, a former state senator who briefly ran for U.S. Senate last year, has been exploring the congressional race for several weeks. He confirmed to the Sun this morning that he will enter the race. He is set to make a formal announcement at a press conference in Carson City later this morning.

Amodei is the fourth major Republican to enter the free-for-all Sept. 13 special election. Under rules approved by Secretary of State Ross Miller, any qualified candidate can run on the ballot, which will likely pit multiple Republicans against multiple Democrats and a cadre of minor party candidates.

Now that the plan to hand this seat to a Nevada GOP establishment crony failed, Amodei had to choose whether to stay out and help another Republican consolidate votes and win, or jump in and further fracture the GOP field. Now we know what he's decided.

And now we know the Nevada GOP again looks to be a total electoral clusterfuck with its own Chair running to deny the seat to fellow Republicans and teabagger darlings Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle and Kirk Lippold.

NV-02: Let the Games Begin!

Now that Our Lady of Perpetual Campaigning can go at it yet again, Nevada Republicans are running scared.

Republicans are already threatening to sue over [Secretary of State Ross] Miller's interpretation of the law, but if it stands, we'll see a wide-open, "jungle"-style race where all candidates from all parties compete against each other on a single ballot (there won't be a primary), and whoever emerges with the most votes wins, no matter how bare the plurality. If Democrats can rally around a single candidate—there's word that Treasurer Kate Marshall will get in the race—then there's a chance we can steal this steadfastly red seat from the GOP.

That's because Republicans are likely to have a much harder time uniting behind just one person. Sharron Angle is already raising money for a run—and hollering that GOP power-brokers want to steal the race away from her. But she's so toxic and unacceptable in Republican circles that they're no way the bigwigs will cave in to her threats. That means at least two well-known (and well-funded) Republicans will run, and even if Angle can only take 10% or even just 5%, that might be enough for [a Democrat to win].

So what happens now? Can a Democrat really win this seat? Kate Marshall seems to think so, as she's all but certain to run now. And hey, considering Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle is in, Kirk Lippold is in, and the Nevada Republican Party power brokers have lost control of this election, all hell may really break loose!

National political pundits are already trying to interpret the meaning of this special election. Both parties are ready to test messages in Reno, in Elko, and elsewhere. And without a doubt, this may very well become the most litigated election in Nevada history.

But hey, democracy isn't always pretty. And frankly, it's better for Nevada to experience more of this. We're already having to learn the hard way that not everything can be settled in back room deals. Sometimes, we just have to let the people decide.

NV-02: Free for All!

And Our Lady of Perpetual Campaigning rejoices!

Saying the decision on who to elect should rest with the people and not “politically elite powerbrokers,” Secretary of State Ross Miller announced today that the special election ballot for the 2nd Congressional District will be open to all candidates and not just nominees selected by the state’s political party.

“There’s only one critical question: how are those candidates picked? By the people of the state of Nevada or by a small group of powerful party officials,” Miller said. “We are announcing the ballot will be open to all qualified candidates.”

The special election will be Sept. 13 to replace U.S. Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., who will be appointed to the U.S. Senate next month following Sen. John Ensign’s resignation.

They tried so hard to shut Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle out of this election, but ultimately Brian Sandoval and Dean Heller couldn't. Party power brokers can't just handpick nominees, and Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron will still run.



Run, Obtuse Angle, run!

NV-02: Sandoval's & Heller's Sharron Angle Problem

So Brian Sandoval is determined to fart in our faces and continue with his plan to hand our US Senate seat to Dean Heller, which is also supposed to give a "good ol' boy" party line Republican an easy special election waltz into NV-02 as Heller tangos his way to The Senate, as he continues to play silly political games. Well, guess who's ready to fart back and blow up the whole neat plan?

Nevada Republican Sharron Angle would consider waging an independent bid for Congress if she were passed over by party insiders in a potential special election for Rep. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) House seat, according to the Las Vegas Review Journal.

Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is expected to make an appointment by the end of the week to fill the seat of Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), whose resignation is effective May 3. Sandoval is widely expected to pick Heller, who is already in the 2012 race for Ensign's seat.

That pick would set the stage for a special election to fill Heller's vacant House seat, but state elections officials are still trying to determine whether the candidates would be selected by party officials or would run in an open election.

If party insiders were to select the nominee, Angle would be at an immediate disadvantage, and, if shunned, could wage an independent bid.

Finally, Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle has proven to be useful! As batshit crazy as she is, even she can rip off the veil of "legitimacy" to reveal what's really happening here. And of course, she's doing this because she knows Sandoval and Heller are trying to screw her out of that Congressional seat (in addition to trying to shore up Heller for next year).

It's nice to see this lovely little scheme already start to backfire on Sandoval and Heller. Serves them right. ;-)