Yet Another Redistricting Scenario!

Since it's looking increasingly likely Nevada redistricting will end up in court, I wanted to look again at how The Nevada Supreme Court will end up redrawing Nevada's Congressional Map. I also wanted to provide an update on what I'm hearing on the ground on who will be running where.

Here's the dilemma: The horribly nasty state budget stalemate has pretty much infected everything in Carson City, including the usually congenial redistricting process. And even though it's increasingly likely The Legislature will finally compromise on a budget/tax deal, at the same time the clock is quickly running out and there may not be any time left for a compromise on redistricting.

So what are you waiting for? Let's get to the map!





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 675,282
69.3% White (73.7% VAP)

The State of Play

Wow! We've seen plenty of change here! Sharron Angle looks to be out, Kate Marshall is now officially in, and the entire September special election is totally up in the air!

But regardless of what happens with that special election this year, the court has to redraw the district for next year. I think there's a good chance the judges will direct their aides to keep all of Washoe County (Reno area) intact, then connect it to Carson City, Douglas County, Storey County, Lyon County, and the Fallon area of Churchill County. This essentially makes the greater Reno-Carson metro area, so it would meet the bar for communities of interest. The seat also includes the northern rural counties of Pershing, Lander, Eureka, and Elko.

While this district has been historically (VERY!) Republican, the changing demographics of Washoe County are leading to much changed politics of this area. In addition, the changing dynamics of the Nevada Republican Party will also shake up the balance of power here. While a moderate Republican is likely favored here in any election, Republican primary voters have been demanding more ideological purity as of late, and may very well nominate teabaggers doomed to lose in general elections.

Who's All In?

As I hinted at above, Kate Marshall is now running for Congress. And if she happens to win in September, I figure the state Democratic Party will ensure next year's primary is cleared for her. And since Marshall lives in Reno, there's virtually no chance of her being redistricted out of NV-02.

Now on the other hand, things have been far more turbulent on the Republican side up here. Sharron Angle is definitely out of the special election, and now political observers are wondering if maybe, just maybe, she'll also stay out of next year's election. If so, then Kirk Lippold's political life will get that much easier. He received a huge boost earlier this month when former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV GOP Old Guard) endorsed him. And now with Angle out of the race, he will have an easier time consolidating the teabagger vote.

At the same time, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) and former Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei will have a tough fight ahead. They're trying to balance throwing some bones to the extreme right to appease the teabaggers while looking sane enough to hold enough moderates to win a general election. Good luck with that! Perhaps Brower or Amodei can pull that off in the general, but first there's the primary. And in the event either Kate Marshall or Kirk Lippold wins the special election this year, will they try again next year?

The Wild Cards

At this point, it's all on the teabaggers. Will they unite behind Lippold? Can they tolerate Amodei or Brower? Will they allow for another Sharron Angle comeback? Only time will tell.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Current Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if special election produces big surprise





NV-04 (The Red District)

Population: 675,251
61.5% White (65.0% VAP)

The State of Play

We've all been waiting for where Nevada's shiny new Congressional District lands. But now that The Nevada Supreme Court has final say, it's looking like the new seat will land on a wide stretch of land going from rural Churchill County to expansive Nye and Lincoln Counties to the sprawling western Clark County (Greater Las Vegas) suburbs and exurbs. This new district forces a "shotgun wedding" of the Deep Republican Central Nevada rural areas with the more Democratic leaning Spring Valley neighborhoods and swingy Summerlin and Northwest neighborhoods of Clark County. It may not be the prettiest district, but it's probably the court's best option to unite communities of interest in the western (Las Vegas) valley while meeting population requirements.

Oh, and since the district pretty much splits right down the middle, NV-04 isn't a "slam dunk" for either Democrats or Republicans.

Who's All In?

This really changes everything. On the Republican side, the new lines may very well encourage State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) to run, as she's been yearning lately for a promotion to DC. Now she finally has a district to make her dreams come true. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Southwest Vegas) may also be encouraged by local teabaggers to run, even though her house may be outside this district.

But unless Republicans can agree on a more moderate candidate who can carry the Clark County portion of NV-04, they may be in trouble. Many of these parts of Vegas have been growing more diverse and trending more Democratic as of late, so Democrats may actually be favored next year if President Obama remains popular, a moderate Summerlin area Democrat can win the nomination, and the Republicans get too teabaggy for voters here. Paging Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown (D-Northwest Vegas)?

The Wild Cards

You mean NV-04 isn't wild enough for you?! ;-)

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.6%
McCain (R) 46.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 48%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Current Race Rating: Tossup



NV-01 (The Blue District)

Population: 675,148
29.0% White (34.5% VAP), 14.7% African-American (14.8% VAP), 47.0% Latino (41.1% VAP)

The State of Play

Here's where things get even wilder! One of the brightest and hottest flash points of the redistricting battle in Nevada has been over minority representation, and in particular what to do with Nevada's Latinos. Republicans have claimed the Voting Rights Act (VRA) demands a Latino majority seat, while Democrats have claimed Latinos should have enough sway in multiple districts to maximize opportunity. At this point, I suspect the court will throw out both parties' maps and split the middle on the reasoning. This probably means we will see NV-01 become a VRA coalition seat based in North Las Vegas and the older, more diverse neighborhoods of Las Vegas (city, mainly Downtown, East Las Vegas, and West Las Vegas) with a fairly strong (38-43%) Latino voting aged population (VAP) plurality.

Who's All In?

So if this is what the court settles upon, then this changes everything on who will win NV-01 next year. State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) has been considered the early frontrunner here, but this district creates major geographic and demographic challenges for him. In addition, as The Legislature closes its 76th session with a total meltdown over the state budget and the progressive Democratic base is becoming increasingly frustrated with party leadership over the lack of progress on implementing progressive tax reform and securing more public education funding, Horsford may pay the ultimate price for this.

All this time, it's been rumored that freshman State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas), a rapidly rising Latino star in Carson City, has been waiting in the wings. This may be his perfect opportunity, as Steven Horsford's political woes surface and Nevada's Latinos are looking for new and exciting leaders.

The Wild Cards

I've occasionally heard that North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck (R) may want a big promotion some time soon, but I suspect she realizes what she has to do to win a Republican primary here probably won't help her win over the voters she needs to succeed in this very heavily Democratic minority-majority district.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 69.1%
McCain (R) 28.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 65%
Sharron Angle (R) 30%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 58%
Brian Sandoval (R) 37%

Current Race Rating: Safe Democratic



NV-03: The Purple District

Population: 674,870
56.7% White (60.6% VAP)

The State of Play

For the last decade, NV-03 has been the "fair fight district" that Republicans thought they could keep a firm grasp upon, until they struggled to save Jon Porter in 2006, only to see him go down in flames in 2008. Joe Heck then turned the district Red again in 2010, but only barely (winning by fewer than 2,000 votes and earning only 48%). Republican legislators had been hoping they could reach a deal with Democrats to give Heck a friendlier NV-03 in 2012. And while there's a faint chance of some last minute deal that allows for a budget that continues the 2009 taxes while throwing the GOP this bone, it's looking increasingly unlikely. Instead, it seems like The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately draw out Joe Heck's fate.

And if the court really looks at communities of interest, then Heck will be in for quite the rough rise. This NV-03 is drawn to reunite almost the entire East Side, which is heavily Democratic, then swing south to swingy Henderson, take in the increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest valley suburbs (west of I-15, south of 215), take in heavily Republican Boulder City, then stretch all the way out to the California border at Primm and Arizona border at Laughlin. The end result is a NV-03 that is slightly more Democratic than its current incarnation, and that may spell real trouble for teabagger darling Heck.

Who's All In?

So what will Joe Heck do? It seems like he's been operating on the assumption he will get at least a slightly redder district, but now he's at the mercy of judges who are supposed to put aside partisan politics. Will Republicans finally lose this district for good?

Enter Dina Titus. She has been itching for a(nother) political comeback since she lost to Heck in a painfully close election. Even though she was probably planning on running in a safer seat, this is now her best opportunity to return to Congress. This district reunites her long time East Side base, includes all the Henderson areas she's known to do well in, and drops the Summerlin and Northwest suburbs that caused her the most problems in 2008 and 2010. This may very well be the best Dina can hope for considering the court now redraws the lines.

The Wild Cards

Early this year, State Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) sounded like a possible Congressional candidate. And perhaps he will still feel the itch to run. But at this point, he has a much tougher hill to climb. Now that The Legislature is in so much chaos in its final days, he will have a harder time convincing Democratic primary voters he's their champion fighter.

At the same time, Joe Heck may have yet another headache if he tries to shift back to the center in a last attempt to save his political career. So far he's had an easy relationship with teabaggers because he gives them the vast majority of what they want. However, what they want is NOT what we needs to do to win an otherwise Democratic leaning district. If Heck pulls back on issues like Paul Ryan's Medicare dismantling, he will probably risk losing the GOP primary. Will teabaggers ask Elizabeth Halseth to run here? Or will they turn to one of their statewide 2010 also rans?

Funny enough, it's increasingly looking like Dina Titus will have an easier primary than most expected early this year. With Rory Reid definitely out, John Oceguera possibly staying out, and Joe Heck at greater risk of getting booted out, Dina may have the last laugh after all.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55.7%
McCain (R) 42.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 45%

Current Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So there you have it. This is another glimpse at what the final results of a court drawn Nevada map may look like.

I know this may scare some folks here who were hoping for two or three safe Democratic seats, but remember this. Nevada's demographics gave shifted rapidly in the last two decades, resulting in a huge political realignment that led to President Obama's stunning 12.5% win in 2008 and Harry Reid's shocking 5.6% win in 2010. While there have been plenty of ups and downs in the last three election cycles, Democrats overall continue to be on an upswing and demographic trends look to continue helping Democrats keep a firm grasp on the intensely urban NV-01, recapture the suburban-but-diversifying NV-03, become more competitive in the transitioning NV-02, and stake a claim on the up-for-grabs NV-04. Maybe Democrats shouldn't be afraid of a court drawn map after all.

Shocker in New York... Upset in Nevada?

Last night, DC pundits were shocked by what they thought was impossible.

Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in New York’s special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY). Despite the $2.36 million spent by groups like Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to keep the district red and the $60 per vote Corwin spent herself, Hochul secured a clear victory in a traditionally Republican district [...]

Viewed as a referendum on House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare, Hochul’s victory exemplifies the American public’s overwhelming disgust with the GOP push to force seniors to bear the burden of increasing health costs. Expecting a loss, several Republicans — including Corwin herself — tried to assert the election had nothing to do with Ryan’s Medicare plan. But DCCC chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) outlined the three reasons that Corwin lost the election: “[I]n alphabetical order, Medicare, Medicare and Medicare.”

Apparently, Paul Ryan's disgusting "roadmap" to destroy the American middle class proved to be quite the political stink bomb. Even Republicans admitted early on that this special election would be a referendum on their plan to unravel the American social safety net, which starts by ending Medicare. And now, Democrats are poised to use this NY-26 election as a launch pad to retake Congress.

"We can ensure we do not decimate Medicare," Hochul said. "We will keep the promises made to our seniors who have spent their lives paying into Medicare, so they can count on health care when they need it most."

If Democrats have their way, there will be a lot more speeches along those lines come November 2012. The chairs of both legislative election committees made clear on Tuesday that they believe they have found a winning formula they intend to use elsewhere.

"The election last night showed that Democrats have the keys to drive the budget debate and play offense in 2012," Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. "The implications of this election extend to Senate races in battleground states and red states across the country. The results provide clear evidence that Democratic senators and senate candidates will be able to play offense across the country by remaining focused on the Republican effort to end Medicare and force seniors to pay thousands more for health care costs."

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said that the party had "served notice to the Republicans" that the Medicare issue could hurt them.

"Even in one of the most Republican districts, seniors and independent voters rejected the Republican plan to end Medicare," he said. "The American people will continue to hold House Republicans accountable for their plan to end Medicare from now until election day 2012."

For Rob Zerban, a Democrat running against GOP budget guru Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in 2012, the Hochul race was an instructive boost to his campaign hopes.

"I just am overwhelmed at the results from this election. It's a harbinger of things to come," he told TPM over the phone on Tuesday night. "I'm certainly going to make this a key issue in the 1st Congressional District in Wisconsin. ... Democrats are going to focus on how we can actualy shore up, strengthen, and keep Medicare solvent, and this will be a clear distinction in the 2012 cycle."

So can this be another factor that shakes up the already zany special election in Nevada's own 2nd Congressional District? The legal drama over how the election itself will be conducted ("Ballot Royale?" Or behind closed doors?) is proving to be a giant hot mess with none other than Dean Heller at the center of it. For quite some time, the focal point of the NV-02 special has been the (at times hilarious) cast of characters running. But now, is there a chance this will change and... GASP! ... the election may actually be decided on policy?

Don't laugh just yet. Notice these numbers (via DB).

Republicans falsely claim Nevada seniors will not be impacted by the GOP’s plan, but starting next year, more than 26,700 Nevada seniors will be forced to pay $15 million more in prescription drug costs [if the Ryan Budget is passed]. The Republican budget also slashes billions in health care through Medicaid, putting seniors at risk.

Specifically:

The Republican plan to end Medicare will increase out-of-pocket health care costs for a typical 65 year-old Nevada senior by $5,862 in 2022 – more than double the cost under current law.

The Republican plan could force at least 7,800 Nevada seniors to pay over $828,000 more for annual wellness visits in 2012.

In Nevada, more than 26,700 seniors would pay $15 million more for prescription drugs in 2012 alone under the Republican plan.

By turning Medicaid into a block grant program, the Republican plan could cost Nevada at least 9,600 private-sector jobs over the next five years.

In Nevada, the Republican plan could cut $1.7 billion in federal health care funding for seniors and the disabled through Medicaid, including life-saving nursing home care.”

I guess that's why Mark Amodei is already running scared and refusing to specifically endorse the Ryan Plan. However, Kirk Lippold has enthusiastically endorsed Ryan's plan. And in the not-all-that-distant past, all three Republican men have embraced it.

Amodei says he likes the "honesty" of the deep spending cuts found in the 2012 budget proposal from U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican and House Budget Committee chairman, whose plan clashes with President Barack Obama's competing proposal. Brower likes the Ryan proposal, too, and says its plan to reduce corporate taxes while keeping President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich "could spur the economic activity we so desperately need." Lippold, a retired Navy commander, says Ryan's plan is a good blueprint that "sets forth some aggressive goals."

Meanwhile, I think we already know what Sharron Angle thinks about the Ryan Plan...





I think we know what's next. But funny enough, it's not just the usual Sharrontology. In fact, all the above mentioned Republicans have in some way endorsed Ryan's plan to destroy Medicare and undermine the middle class. Even if they try to run away and distance themselves from this, they will just look as silly as Jane Corwin did in New York's 26th Congressional District.

So maybe Mr. Gleaner will get his wish come true after all? Maybe the special election in Nevada's 2nd will be decided on the issues (not just the personalities) after all?

NV-02: Nevada GOP Chair Enters Special Election, Screws Over Nevada GOP

Haha.

Nevada Republican Party Chairman Mark Amodei became fourth Republican to enter the special election contest for the 2nd Congressional District today, setting up a possible path to victory for wildcard Sharron Angle or a Democrat.

Amodei, a former state senator who briefly ran for U.S. Senate last year, has been exploring the congressional race for several weeks. He confirmed to the Sun this morning that he will enter the race. He is set to make a formal announcement at a press conference in Carson City later this morning.

Amodei is the fourth major Republican to enter the free-for-all Sept. 13 special election. Under rules approved by Secretary of State Ross Miller, any qualified candidate can run on the ballot, which will likely pit multiple Republicans against multiple Democrats and a cadre of minor party candidates.

Now that the plan to hand this seat to a Nevada GOP establishment crony failed, Amodei had to choose whether to stay out and help another Republican consolidate votes and win, or jump in and further fracture the GOP field. Now we know what he's decided.

And now we know the Nevada GOP again looks to be a total electoral clusterfuck with its own Chair running to deny the seat to fellow Republicans and teabagger darlings Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle and Kirk Lippold.

NV-Sen, NV-02: Shelley Is In... And So Is Kirk Lippold?

Let the game of political musical chairs continue!

I am hearing ex-USS Cole Commander Kirk Lippold is going to announce today he is running as GOPer for Heller's seat. @SharronAngle also in.

After flirting with a Senate run in 2010, Kirk Lippold now seems serious about running in The 2nd District... Against a growing GOP field that includes Brian Krolicki, Mark Amodei, and (of course!) Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron!

This certainly makes the GOP primary there even more uncertain! You can look at this one of three ways:

1. Lippold splits the teabagger vote with Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle, helping Brian Krolicki win in a crowded field.

2. Lippold splits the anti-Angle vote with Krolicki, Mark Amodei, and others, helping Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron win in a crowded field.

3. GOP voters desperate for "a change from the career politicians" are revolted enough by all the other choices to give Lippold a surprise win.

I guess it all really depends now on how hard Chuck Muth pushes for him.

In the mean time, we have an even bigger announcement released that's long been in the works.

Rep. Shelley Berkley will run for US Senate, source close to her confirms.

Is anyone really surprised here? Yeah, I thought not.

Rep. Shelley Berkley has decided she will run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Sen. John Ensign, Sun columnist Jon Ralston reported this morning.

Ralston said a close source to the Democrat confirmed she will enter the race. The source said Berkley had been agonizing about the decision, but the opportunity was too appealing to pass up.

She could face Republican Dean Heller, who officially jumped into the race last month for the seat being vacated by the retiring Ensign.

“Dean Heller will be a very formidable candidate no matter what he runs for,” Berkley told Ralston last month amid speculation she might enter the race. “But as I said before, my opponent will not be a deciding factor. I am seriously looking at the Senate seat.”

So she needs to update her web site, plan more rural trips, and keep reminding naysayers of those poll numbers proving them wrong. I honestly had my doubts at first, but I can now see Shelley Berkley defeating Dean Heller next year. Obama's on track to win Nevada easily again, Heller isn't known for his campaigning skills, yet Shelley most certainly is. There clearly is a path for her.

And without a doubt, 2012 looks to be another wild ride for Nevada voters!