Friday, September 2, 2011

Mitt Romney: The New Sue Lowden?

Was that the turning point for Mitt Romney? Why does this feel so much like deja vu?

Suzy Lowdown can certainly attest to what happens when "foot-in-mouth disease" combines with loathing from "the base" to make a special brew of ballot box poison.

[Texas Governor] Rick Perry has taken the lead nationally, but GOP voters are really starting to catch on with his campaign in key primary states as well. Recently, Perry's stormed to the front in South Carolina and Iowa in multiple surveys, and a Republican poll out Friday shows him at the top in another early state in the GOP nomination process: Nevada.

A Magellan Strategies poll out Friday showed that Perry is the first choice of 29 percent of [Nevada] GOP caucus-goers, followed by former [Massachusetts Governor] Mitt Romney at 24 percent. The survey shows pretty much a two way race: the rest of the field is in single digits, and former contender Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is down to fourth with 6 percent, behind businessman Herman Cain's 7. [...]

Romney had held a solid lead in a Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Nevada during early August, when Perry was just about to officially enter the race. But in the following weeks Perry has clearly built up support at the expense of other candidates, like Bachmann. "Looking at responses by voter subgroup, we find male voters and seniors (voters aged 65 or older) leaning heavily towards Rick Perry," reads the Magellan memo on the Nevada poll. "Among self-identified tea party 'members,' which make up 49% of all respondents, Rick Perry has a 20 point lead over Mitt Romney."

Ruh roh.

Romney was depending on a big Nevada Caucus win as part of his "firewall strategy". Iowa is already turning out to be a real hell in a hand basket situation for him, and South Carolina is increasingly looking as good as gone for poor lil' rich guy Mittens. Romney's whole campaign has been built on him being "inevitable", but his "inevitability" is falling like a house of cards. And all of a sudden, he has nothing else to stand on... Except for his mountains of money, that is.

Again, Sweet Sue can attest to being stood up by "Tea Party, Inc." when the "inevitable", "electable" one gets sidelined by "The Real Deal"... As in real batsh*t crazy. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the teabaggers control today's GOP, and they're not really interested in milquetoast.

Ricky, meet Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron.

Mittens may have the GOP establishment on his side, but so did Suzy... And look what happened to her. Teabaggers demand purity, and Rick Perry is doing his darndest to give them exactly that... Just like Sharron Angle did.

Of course, voters in the general election will probably respond quite differently, especially since that electorate has been changing dramatically in the last 20 years.

[...T]here is a real danger that Republican leaders and strategists will interpret a strong showing in the midterm election as vindication for a strategy based largely on energizing the Party’s conservative white base. That base is indeed energized. But it is also shrinking due to the steady growth in the size of the nonwhite electorate. By 2020 nonwhites will probably make up over a third of the American electorate.

Unless Republicans can expand their support among nonwhite voters, they will have to win a much larger share of the white vote than they have in any recent presidential election in order to remain competitive. However, increasing the Republican share of the nonwhite vote would require the GOP to move closer to the ideological center on issues such as government services, health care and immigration—a shift that would be certain to arouse intense opposition from conservative pundits and activists. Regardless of what happens in this year’s midterm elections, Republican leaders will soon face a difficult choice between reaching out to nonwhite voters or continuing to cater to their Party’s shrinking base.

Yes, Republicans, keep running further and further to the radical right. This is definitely your ticket to victory (for Democrats).

By the way, Justin explains this even better.

The results of a Magellan Strategies poll has Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 5% in the Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus. With Mitt Romney winning Nevada in 2008 (neighbor to Utah and home to many Mormons), these results are a little surprising. What do these results tell us about Nevada Republicans and their chances of winning in 2012?

In 2010, Nevada Republicans chose Sharron Angle, by popular vote, to run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Nevada GOP has already shown us that they prefer the extreme to the electable. This poll, a little over a year later, indicates little has changed. No lesson learned.

Harry Reid’s approval ratings in Nevada were much lower than Obama’s ever have been. Yet he was able to defeat Sharron Angle. So if Rick Perry (who probably even scares Sharron Angle a little bit) wins in a Nevada Republican Presidential Caucus, President Obama’s 2012 reelection bid is looking pretty good.

No wonder why President Obama isn't panicking too much over today's toxic political environment.

No comments:

Post a Comment