Loud & Clear

It's hard work. Try working all day, and possibly all night as well. And try working so hard... Only to be paid so little.

This isn't just a theoretical scenario for these workers. This is real life.





That's why they and some community friends stood outside a local McDonald's in Las Vegas today. They have been working hard for minimum wage and near minimum wage pay. And they're struggling to survive.



Minimum wage hasn't been enough for them to take care of their families. So they asked for a raise. And they weren't alone in doing so.

This was just one of many #FastFoodGlobal events across the nation... And around the world. They were simply asking for fair wages. They were asking for a chance to feed their families. And they were asking for a chance to improve our economy.

And they weren't alone today. State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), community activist Linda Turner, and many more community allies from PLAN, ProgressNow Nevada, SEIU, and elsewhere joined the protest.



For over an hour, they were all baking under the hot Southern Nevada sun. And this was just one of three #FastFoodGlobal events in the valley today. Local fast food workers really wanted to make sure their voices were heard today.



They can only hope they were heard loud & clear.







This isn't some theoretical argument over abstract numbers. This is real life. Real families here in Nevada are struggling, even as they're working as hard as they can to get by.

Can we hear them? We should. The message should be coming across loud & clear by now.

SB 303 Signed into Law As Congress Drags Along on #cir

Earlier this week, the Assembly passed SB 303. The Senate had already passed the bill earlier this month. And now, it's becoming state law.

A bill allowing people in the country illegally to obtain driving privilege cards in Nevada has been signed into law by Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval.

When the cards become available Jan. 1, Nevada will join four other states providing a way for immigrants to legally drive on state roadways and obtain insurance.

Nevada’s first Hispanic governor signed SB303 on Friday. He was surrounded by legislative leaders and others who have championed the bill.

Sandoval called it an “historic day” in Nevada. Democratic Senate Majority Leader [Mo Denis (D-North Las Vegas)] fought back tears as the bill was signed.

As we've discussed before, this is a historic achievement. Finally, people who have been living here and otherwise abiding by the law won't just be stopped and arrested because of how much personal documentation they have. And Nevada is at least taking some action on providing documentation to undocumeted immigrants who are still waiting for Congress to act.

Oh, yes. That's right. We're still waiting on Congress... And particularly on US Senator Dean Heller (R-46%).

The left-leaning Center for American Progress did a state-by-state analysis of the estimated economic impact of passing the immigration reform legislation. In Nevada, the organization estimated there were 190,000 immigrants in the state without legal status. Over 10 years, the legalization of the population would generate $534 million in tax revenue and a $17.9 billion increase in gross state product.

Also, more than 100 economists signed on to a May 23 letter to the Senate and House leadership supporting immigration reform, arguing the net impact would be economic growth. The letter was spearheaded by the right-leaning American Action Forum, and the signatories are identified as "conservative" economists.

While [US Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid [D-Searchlight, & Don't You Forget It] is a strong supporter of the legislation, Sen. Dean Heller recently penned an op-ed for the Las Vegas Review-Journal in which he called for bipartisan work to pass reform and lauded the course set in the Senate while stopping short of fully backing the bill as it stands. [...]

Some pro-reform advocates have hope Heller will endorse the bill well before any vote on the Senate floor, possibly swaying other Republicans on the fence. The Sun's Karoun Demirjian reported last week that Heller was not biting, for now.

The full Senate is expected to take up the immigration reform in early June after addressing the farm bill, while the House of Representatives has its own "gang" of bipartisan legislators working on a proposal. The House plan is expected to be unveiled next week.

As we've discussed before, Nevada and other states have been trying to fill the void left by the federal government's past inability to implement comprehensive immigration reform (CIR). But now, Congress has a chance to finally change this. So will it happen?

That's what everyone is now asking. And that's why CIR advocates are demanding answers from Senator Heller. Will the passage of SB 303 in Carson City finally do the trick for Senator Heller?

SB 303 About to Become Law As Congress Wrestles With #cir

So it finally happened this week. In the closing days of the 77th session of the Nevada Legislature, the Assembly voted 30-9 to pass SB 303. This bill allows for undocumented immigrants and others who have difficulties accessing their personal documents to obtain driver's authorization cards.



And already, Governor Brian Sandoval (R) has signaled his willingness to sign SB 303 into law. So does this mean the matter is settled?

Perhaps not. Remember that this is just state policy on legal driving status. Ultimately, the federal government handles actual legal immigration status...

And US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Searchlight) had something to say about this.

“I talked about this to a number of my senators today, and what he wanted to say is they haven’t done a whip count on this yet,” Reid said. “I think we have 60 votes. Remember, we start out at 55 Democrats. I think the most I’ll lose is two or three. Let’s say I wind up with 52 Democrats. I only need eight Republicans, and I already have four, so that should be pretty easy.

Funny enough, SB 303 enjoyed healthy margins in both houses of the Nevada Legislature. Yet in Congress, S 744 (the Senate comprehensive immigration reform [CIR] bill) has yet to reach 60 votes (out of 100) in the Senate. Oh, and it's still anyone's guess as to what US Senator Dean Heller (R-46%) will do to it.

And again, there's also the issue of the US House. Can any CIR bill pass there? Can anything get past the 21st Century Know Nothings there?

That's actually why Nevada is about to get SB 303. What else can the state do while the 21st Century Know Nothings continue to block comprehensive immigration reform in Congress? And will Republican Congresscritters notice what several Republican state legislators just voted to do?

SB 303 Continues to Advance

Oh, yes. That's right. We have even more big news emanating from Carson City today as the Nevada Legislature races toward the finish line.

The Assembly Transportation Committee held a hearing on SB 303, the bill authorizing driver's authorization cards for immigrant drivers. Senators Mo Denis (D-North Las Vegas) and Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) stepped over to the other side of the Legislature Building to testify on "The Nevada Highway Safety Act". And yes, that's what was discussed at the hearing.

NV SB 303: bill not about immigration, but about public safety. - @RubenKihuen #nvleg driving permits

SB303 is a Public safety issue NOT an immigration issue so we urge the NV Assembly to pass this bill. #NVLeg #TimeIsNow

There was plenty of discussion on how more insured and documented drivers means safer roads. Oh, and of course, there was discussion of the $22 annual fee (as opposed to $22 for a standard driver's license for 5 years). This also delivers more revenue for the state budget right when the state needs more.

There was plenty of testimony in Carson City, as well as in Las Vegas. Several community activists told their own personal stories in Las Vegas. And a representative from the Washoe County Sheriff's Department testified in favor of SB 303 in Carson City. And for the record, no one (!!!) testified against the bill.

Oh, and we even heard this from the Nevada DMV representative offering neutral testimony.

"@BlancaSprkls: Don't hate! The #dmv is officially the happiest place on earth! #nvleg #SB303" #DriverAuthorization (don't tell Disney)

No vote was taken today. But considering the lopsided 20-1 vote (!!!) in favor of SB 303 in the Senate, its passage in the Assembly is all but assured. And so far, it looks likely that Governor Brian Sandoval (R) will sign the bill into law.

While SB 303 advocates tried to focus everyone's attention on the public safety matters addressed by this bill, the issue of immigration reform continued to linger in the background. After all, Nevada is now in this position because Congress has yet to pass any kind of comprehensive immigration reform (CIR). Senator Dean Heller (R-46%) has yet to say what he will do with the US Senate CIR bill, Reps. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) & Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) have yet to say what they will do with the emerging US House CIR bill, and they're all facing increasing pressure from the 21st Century Know Nothings to kill any & all attempts at CIR.

So against this complicated backdrop, SB 303 continues to advance. We don't know yet what Congress will ultimately do on CIR, but that isn't stopping the Nevada Legislature from taking action on this (in the limited capacity that it can).

Opportunity

Yesterday, we saw some of Carson City in Las Vegas. No, it wasn't that cold here. Rather, State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) held a town hall at the East Las Vegas Community Center while former State Senator and current Las Vegas City Council Member Bob Coffin (D) held a discussion with Southern Nevada Stonewall.

And at both events, plenty of important topics were brought up. Sex education (AB 230), marriage equality (SJR 13), driver's privilege cards for undocumented immigrants (SB 303), public education, and tax reform were discussed last night. Senator Kihuen answered questions from constituents...





And Council Member Coffin talked with Stonewall members & guests about what happens behind the scenes in Carson City and how to make change there.





And he wasn't finished there. Council Member Coffin expounded upon the advances of LGBTQ civil rights in Nevada and nationally in the last 45 years. And he shared more insight on how bills do (and don't) become law in Carson City.





All too often, Carson City seems like another world for Southern Nevada residents. Why do policies that seem like common sense here become so controversial there? And why do policies that seem so toxic here become law there?

Yet despite the great geographic difference, one can still make a big impact here and there. It takes determination. And it takes extended commitment.





Most civil rights advancements didn't happen overnight. That's often been the case here in Nevada. Yet with that being said, we've been seeing openings on matters like marriage equality and immigrant rights that didn't seem possible just a year ago. The same can even be said regarding tax reform and restoring public education.

The opportunity is here. It's now a matter of how much progressives take advantage of it.

One Small Card, One BIG Policy Change

Yesterday was another action packed day at the Nevada Legislature. This time, the Senate Transportation Committee heard testimony on SB 303. This bill provides for a driver's privilege card (or limited driver's license) for undocumented immigrants, and it's sponsored by Senate leadership from both parties. In addition to its hearing in Carson City, SB 303 also had satellite testimony from Las Vegas.



And while immigrant rights activists packed the hearing rooms in Carson City and Las Vegas, SB 303 also received some surprising support. For one, the bill is inspired by a program that's already happening next door. And no, I'm not talking about California (though the California Legislature is now considering its own bill).

“Denying driving privilege to the undocumented population jeopardizes safety and raises insurance rates for everyone,” [Senator Ruben] Kihuen [D-Las Vegas] told the committee. [...]

The driver’s privilege card will be available to people who cannot produce all of the documentation needed for a Nevada driver’s license. It would allow the holder to legally drive in the state but could not be used as an official identification or to apply for federal or state benefits. The application fee would be $22, the same as for a driver’s license, but the driver’s privilege card would have to be renewed annually instead of every four years like a traditional license.

“SB 303 will bring in new revenue at a time when we desperately need it,” Kihuen said. “There are over 100,000 undocumented people in Nevada who could benefit form this proposed bill. It could mean millions of dollars in stimulus to our economy. They will purchase cars, they will purchase insurance and they will drive to stores, take trips and more easily find a job.” [...]

The Nevada bill is modeled after similar legislation in Utah, and two Utah state senators also testified. Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, said the law had contributed to Utah’s low rate of uninsured drivers and had improved road safety as more drivers are tested and insured.

“The angst from right (when we passed the bill) was that Utah would be a magnet, a mecca, a gateway for a subsequent influx of undocumented individuals because we provided this privilege. The data doesn’t support that,” Bramble said, pointing out that after peaking around 43,000 driver’s privilege cards, the number in Utah has since dropped below 40,000.

Bramble said there was concern in Utah of criminals applying for the card. Of 40,000 applicants in Utah, two were found to have criminal records, he said. Utah eventually added a fingerprinting and background check provision to its law, something Denis has resisted under the argument that it would discourage participation and the undermine the intent of the law.

“You must concede that they have violated immigration laws,” Bramble said of some of the potential applicants. “Beyond that though, it appears from our experience in Utah that folks who come forward to apply for this are not the criminal element, they are not the folks law enforcement is seeking out. … Pass it or not, they are on our roads.”

Indeed, Utah has been running this program since 2005. And despite a "tea party" fueled campaign to repeal the law last year (which failed), the program is working there. And in fact, the number of driver's privilege cards issues actually dropped last year.

It's also helped make roads safer there. And earlier this year, a California DMV report stated its roads will likely be safer Keith more insured drivers, which is what will happen once California starts issuing driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants. Behind all the controversy over immigration reform, this is really a simple matter of public safety.

So does this mean SB 303 will sail through Carson City? We'll see. As mentioned earlier, Senate leaders in both parties are backing the bill. However in the Assembly, Minority Leader Pat Hickey (R-Reno) has been playing nefarious political games with the bill by trying to tie it to the otherwise unrelated SB 63 electronic poll book bill that Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) is pushing. There are probably still more than enough Democratic votes to pass SB 303 in the Assembly regardless, but we don't know yet what exactly Governor Brian Sandoval (R) plans to do with it (though he's seemingly been warming up to it).

It's been a long journey here, but Nevada may finally soon begin issuing driver's privilege cards alongside Utah, New Mexico, and Washington (State). Undocumented immigrants can finally be treated a little less "second class". And Nevada raids can be safer with fewer unlicensed and uninsured drivers.

All Shook Up

Last night, Jon Ralston had State Senate Majority Leader Mo Denis (D-North Las Vegas) and State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) on his show to discuss yesterday's startling turn of events. Believe it or not, we've seen even more twists and turns in the past 18 hours.

(Skip to 19:30 to start the Denis/Kihuen segment.)



Just as I had expected earlier, someone else is quickly jumping on this bandwagon. All of a sudden, State Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) also wants "driver's privilege cards" for undocumented immigrants. And he may even introduce his own bill for it!

On Tuesday, Roberson voiced strong support for a Utah-style driver’s privilege card for undocumented immigrants, adding that the Republican caucus may come out with its own proposal soon.

“A lot of immigrants in Nevada are on the roads now, whether it’s to get back and forth to school or get children back and forth to school or to go to work,” Roberson said. “The fact that these immigrants may be driving without a license or card and without insurance, I think we can do better than that as a state.”

So there's now bipartisan consensus here. So is all well? Not for Nevada Republicans. Chuck Muth eviscerated Roberson (again) on his blog last weekend for "Hispandering" (nice one, Chuckie) already, so he probably isn't liking this. And so far, other top Republicans in Carson City may be more inclined to side with Muth.

Sen. Don Gustavson, R-Reno, one of the Legislature’s most conservative Republicans, was dismayed by the idea of granting driving privileges to undocumented immigrants.

“I would not be supportive just letting people come in the country illegally and giving them a driver’s license. No!” he said. “It doesn’t make sense to allow them to come in the country illegally then give permission to drive legally.”

As we had discussed yesterday, the "tea party" base of the Republican Party has no interest in moderation. Hell, Chuck Muth is now vitriolically referring to it as "Hispandering"! And the likes of Don Gustavson and Pat Hickey seem eager to fight Roberson on this.

And speaking of Hickey, he stirred the pot some more yesterday by continuing his false equivalency argument for voter ID. As Mo Denis said above, there is a huge difference between utilizing resources to solve a serious problem (uninsured and unlicensed drivers on the road) and spending money to "solve" a nonexistent problem (as in the great "VOTER FRAUD!!!" hoax). But shortly after saying this, Denis announced something that probably won't sound like music to Ross Miller's ears. So now, both incoming Assembly Speaker Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D-North Las Vegas) and incoming State Senate Majority Mo Denis have announced opposition to Ross Miller's election reform bill!

While Republicans are split over tackling legal status for immigrant drivers, Democrats are now split over election reform. And thanks to Pat Hickey stirring the pit, both issues are starting to look like a tangled mess. At least Denis and Roberson won't need Assembly Republican votes to pass some sort of legislation clearing the way for some sort of driver's licenses for immigrant drivers. However, Ross Miller will definitely need more Democratic support to pass his election reform legislation. And so far, top Democrats just don't see the need for it... And Republican meddling may very well be harming Miller's chances of coalescing Democratic support for it.

So far, the Nevada Legislature is looking increasingly "all shook up"... And it isn't even in session yet!

NV-01: BREAKING- Ruben Kihuen Withdraws from Primary

5:30 PM-

I literally just saw this a minute ago.

“I want to thank all the volunteers, voters, donors and other supporters who have supported me throughout this process, and this decision that I am announcing today. Unfortunately, the reality is that continuing my efforts to win in what would promise to be a resource draining primary at this time is not in the best interest for me, my family, my community and my party.

“Nevada has lived through the worst economic times in a generation. This year, our state will play a pivotal role in determining whether the United States stays on the path toward recovery by reelecting President Obama, or takes a sharp turn in a radical and dangerous direction.

“I will do everything I can to reelect President Obama and strengthen his hand by sending Democrats to the House and Senate, including Shelley Berkley, Steven Horsford, John Oceguera and Dina Titus. I will do all I can to encourage Latinos to make our voices heard through the electoral process—especially in November.

“For me, serving Nevada has always come first. I will continue to do that in the State Senate. We face a republican party that doesn’t understand the challenges people who live here confront every day. Nevadans need good-paying jobs – now. They need help staying in their homes – today. They need an economic plan that builds the diversified economy of Nevada’s future, starting yesterday. These challenges can’t wait. I’m going back to work on them tomorrow.”

I know this must be tough for Ruben. He truly is a rising star in the Democratic Party here in Nevada. And I still believe he has a very bright future ahead of him. And I hope he continues to fight for our commonly held progressive values in The Legislature. We will surely need him again in Carson City next year.

I know a whole lot of folks down here in Southern Nevada have been excited about Ruben's campaign. I just hope they don't lose hope over this. Trust me, we will continue to see Latin@ Nevadans become more involved in our process and gain more of the power and voice that they deserve in our government. And I hope progressives throughout Clark County can put the NV-01 primary behind them and focus on what we all need to be doing this year in electing more and better progressives up and down the ballot to make our dreams into reality.

UPDATE, 6:30 PM-

Via The Hill, we've now learned that Senator Harry Reid is chiming in and doing his part to make peace here.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), a kingmaker in Nevada Democratic politics, immediately endorsed Titus, although he called Kihuen a “rising star in Nevada and the Democratic Party” and said he expected great things from him in the near future.

“With Tea Party Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, Nevada’s middle-class families need Dina Titus in their corner fighting to protect Medicare and Social Security, create good paying jobs that can’t be shipped overseas and holding Wall Street bankers and Big Oil executives accountable,” Reid said.

Well done, "Abuelito". Well done. And clearly with Ruben out, Dina's more likely to be back in Congress next year. And frankly, I'm sure a whole lot of progressives will be happy to see her back there.



Knowing Dina and knowing where she stands on justice for the 99%, I'm sure she will serve NV-01 well. :-)

7:15 PM-

Dina Titus' campaign just released a statement on this.

“Senator Kihuen is a dedicated public servant who has always put the interests of Nevada first. He ran a strong campaign that inspired young people to work for the good of our state. Now is the time to come together to reelect President Obama and elect Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, Steven Horsford, and all Democrats running for office. Ruben is a rising star who has a bright career ahead of him fighting for Nevadans. I look forward to working with him to create jobs, advocate for minority interests, and diversify Nevada’s economy.”

Well done, Dina. Thanks. Let's keep it classy, Nevada Democrats.

7:40 PM-

A few minutes ago, The Sun was able to get a comment from Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Roberta Lange on this.

“Sen. Ruben Kihuen is an outstanding public servant with a very bright future in Nevada politics,” state party Chairwoman Roberta Lange said in a statement. “Nevada Democrats are united behind Dina Titus and we look forward to sending her back to Congress to fight for Nevada families.”

The article from Karoun Demirjian also sheds a little more light on why this happened.

Democrats pressured Titus to step aside and declare herself for the swing 3rd District, the one she’d represented before losing by a slim margin to Republican Rep. Joe Heck.

But Titus didn’t accept that tacit determination, opting instead for the safer 1st District seat, where any Democrat who gets elected stands a strong chance of being re-elected for several cycles to come.

But even if the opinion of the party power elite was against Titus, the numbers — polls, fundraising, even age — were against Kihuen.

An early internal poll from the Titus campaign showed the former congresswoman pulling seven times the vote Kihuen could muster districtwide, and about three times as many votes as Kihuen among the Hispanics that were supposed to be his base.

The Titus campaign also more than doubled Kihuen's in 2011 fundraising, a feat they loudly trumpeted last week when numbers were released. As of Dec. 31, Titus had raised $422,000, keeping $327,000 in cash on hand, while Kihuen had only raised $189,000, with about $135,000 cash on hand.

Again, both Dina and Ruben have been strong progressive Democrats. And both had been making a great case for being elected in NV-01. I guess in the end, Ruben decided it wasn't worth it to risk party division over what's essentially a nonexistent ideological divide.

And again, hopefully Ruben will reemerge when future opportunities arise. And I know they will. He's a sharp mind and a bright star who has no reason to shy away any time soon.

And again, Dina is the Nevada Democrats' political phoenix who finds ways to keep rising out of the ashes against all odds. Dina is back. Again. And this time, she'll likely be here to stay.

Breaking My Silence on NV-01

In case you missed the big news this morning, nationally respected polling firm Anzalone-Liszt released a new NV-01 poll showing Dina Titus with a substantial 75% to 18% lead over Ruben Kihuen in the Democratic primary (that will likely determine the general election winner there). And while the media pundits will want to focus on the horse race aspect of the race, I think there's an even bigger story behind the top lines of this poll.

For one, there's no real "racial gap" among Democratic voters here. Instead, Dina leads with over 60% of the vote and by greater than 2-1 margins across all ethnic groups. Latino voters approve of what Dina did in the previous Congress, and so far they're not falling into the GOP trap of race baiting that Republicans want this primary to be about.

What's also fascinating is the lack of a "geographic gap" in the new NV-01. In both the current areas of the district and the former parts of NV-03 (that Dina Titus represented in 2009 and 2010) being added to the new NV-01, Dina leads with over 70% of the vote. For all the supposed controversy over where Dina lives, Democrats across the district know and love her.

So considering the big news today, perhaps I should break my silence here. Frankly, I'm getting awfully sick and tired of all the ridiculous accusations and over-the-top personal attacks that have defined this race so far. While I don't believe Ruben Kihuen is ignorant, inexperienced, lazy, or unprepared, I also don't believe Dina Titus is racist, "elitist", conservative (HA!), emasculating, or stealing (anything her detractors always falsely accuse her of).

We all know Dina Titus' record. Where is the "racism"? Where is the "elitism"? And where is the conservative?



So why even go there? I know Ruben is smart and determined. And I know Dina cares about all her constituents. And I know both can make an honest case for progressives' votes.

With that being said, I just hope that no one gives Nevada Republicans the holiday gift they want the most, which would be a progressive base destroyed because of ridiculous NV-01 infighting. Please, just let them keep destroying their own (lack of) operation. Please, NV-01 folks, don't toss any "get out of jail free" cards to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Dean Heller, and/or Joe Heck.

So far, it looks like Democratic primary voters aren't falling for the radical right's "divide and conquer" strategy. Let's keep it that way. Whether the NV-01 winner is Titus or Kihuen, we can't allow for the G-O-TEA to take everything else here in Nevada.

OK. I'm glad to get that off my chest. That's all, folks (at least for now).

On Primaries

In the last week, we've been hearing plenty about primaries... Especially one in Las Vegas. Who is Harry Reid backing? Who is Culinary backing? Who will excite Latinos more? Who will excite women more?

I don't think I need to go into details as to what I'm referring to. And it's not like this may be the only primary that heats up. So where do we go from here?

Here's a start: Don't take it so personally, and don't make it toxic. Really. Just live by these rules, and the entire Democratic Party and progressive movement don't have to be ripped apart over personality wars.

This isn't obligated to be "ugly", so don't fulfill certain pundits' wishes. No progressive benefits from "ugly". And no progressive benefits from media feeding frenzies involving "ugly" that only serve to distract voters from what really matters.

And what really matters, you ask? Economic justice. Civil rights. Health care for all. A greener, cleaner future. This is what matters... Not "ugly", not personality wars.

And for most races here in Nevada, the election doesn't end alongside the primary. We all have a long and brutal year ahead of us. We have dangerous, extreme, TEA-flavored ideologues to defeat at the Presidential and Congressional level. So certain primary campaigns should remember that even if their respective campaigns "end" on primary night, there's still far more that Nevada progressives will need to do to succeed on November 6, 2012.

So before there's greater potential for this upcoming primary season to spin out of control, I just wanted to put this out. So please take heed. Thanks.

More on Court's Proposed Congressional Districts

(Image courtesy of Las Vegas Sun)

So I played with the numbers last night to get a better sense of the political state of play in redistricting. Now that Judge Russell and his special masters have given us districts, we can get a better sense of who will end up with what. Here are my rough estimates of the partisan makeup of each district after drawing each one as close to reality as possible on Dave's Redistricting App:

NV-01 (Urban Las Vegas):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64%
McCain (R) 34%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 42%

Democrats who live here- Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen

Republican who lives here- Barbara Cegavske

Race Rating- Safe Democratic

NV-02 (Reno-Carson/Northern Nevada):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Democrats who live here- Kate Marshall, Jill Derby, Jessica Sferrazza

Republicans who live here- Mark Amodei, Sharron Angle

Race Rating- Leans Republican

NV-03 (Henderson, Southwest Vegas, & South Clark County):

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Democrat who lives here- John Oceguera

Republicans who live here- Joe Heck, Elizabeth Halseth

Race Rating- Tossup

NV-04 (North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Northwest Vegas, & Central Nevada)

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Democrats who live here- Steven Horsford, John Lee, Larry Brown

Republicans who live here- Ed Goedhart, Shari Buck

Race Rating- Leans Democratic

So this is what we have so far: one solidly safe Democratic seat, one Democratic leaning seat, one tossup seat, and one Republican leaning seat. As it stands now, Nevada Democrats likely have at least two seats (NV-01 and NV-04) firmly in their pocket while Republicans have a good leg up in one seat (NV-02). NV-03 will probably be the barnburner that both sides will have to fiercely contest again.

Redistricting Nevada: NV-0X & The Politicians Who Crave It

In case you haven't yet heard, all the "kool kidz" on Twitter are using NV-0X to describe the current Nevada Congressional campaigns that can't yet point to actual districts... Since we don't have any new district lines yet. But even though we don't have any actual Congressional Districts ready for 2012, that isn't stopping what's quickly becoming a wild game of political musical chairs.

Joe Heck is now trying to look more "moderate" and "Nevadan". Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Nevada Assembly Speaker John Oceguera is now running for US House in a "yet to be determined district"... Except that it feels like he's already determined he's ready to take on Joe Heck. And not to be outdone by anyone else, Dina Titus is already making a big splash in her latest comeback campaign. And rumors continue swirling about Nevada Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas), State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), State Senator John Lee (D?-North Las Vegas), and others making the jump.

However, there's a problem. And if you haven't already noticed, let me remind you. Nevada will have four Congressional Districts starting in 2013. One of them will most assuredly be up north (where Kate Marshall is already running in the special election this year). So that leaves us with three Clark County based districts, yet we have two already announced Democratic candidates and at least three likely candidates. This is where the musical chairs analogy comes into play. With only three seats available and five candidates eyeing them, either a couple will have to "drop out before they even run", or we will be seeing some fierce primary action in the next year.

So here is where redistricting comes into play. The law suit is now in Carson City district court, but it may very well ultimately be decided by the Nevada Supreme Court. And since the courts are not supposed to take partisan politics into consideration, they probably won't be keen on any "baconmanders".

So let's take a look at probable redistricting scenarios, and how Nevada's Democratic candidates will respond accordingly.

In my first scenario, which I proposed back in May, Democrats won't be too happy. Neither will Republicans, but the Nevada GOP must recognize this is the best they can hope for after deliberately punting redistricting to the courts.







In this map, Clark County Latinos get a favorable (41.2% CVAP) minority-majority (and heavily Democratic) NV-01, while NV-03 remains slightly Democratic leaning but very swingy, NV-04 is drawn as a pure tossup seat, and NV-02 is Republican leaning but prone to become increasingly swingy. This may be enough to entice Ruben Kihuen to run in NV-01 (and make Steven Horsford think twice about running here), while Dina Titus and John Oceguera are forced to primary each other in NV-03 for the honor to face Joe Heck in the general election, and NV-04 just sits there and waits for some brave Democrat to face the steep challenge ahead.

NV-01 (Blue):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 69.1%
McCain (R) 28.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 65%
Sharron Angle (R) 30%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 58%
Brian Sandoval (R) 37%

NV-02 (Green):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

(And I'm only showing it here because it hardly even changes in the other two maps.)

NV-03 (Purple):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55.7%
McCain (R) 42.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 45%

NV-04 (Red):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.6%
McCain (R) 46.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 48%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

---

But what if this doesn't happen? What if the judges have different ideas on how to divvy up Clark County? If that happens, Nevada Democrats will rejoice. But depending on how the lines are specifically redrawn, some will rejoice more than others.

In my second scenario, the court takes a more nuanced approach to the VRA and city boundaries. Since it's virtually impossible to create any sort of neatly drawn 50%+ Latino CVAP district, the court then sides with the Democrats in allowing for multiple "opportunity districts" instead. So instead of just one heavily Democratic district and two swing districts, Clark County instead gets one strongly Democratic district, one Democratic leaning district (which a much heftier lean), and one tossup district. NV-03 is now 36.9% Latino CVAP, and is one "Big Blue Blob" extending from the (heavily Latino) east end of North Las Vegas all the way south (through Downtown Las Vegas and UNLV) to Henderson's Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch. NV-01 is now "L-shaped" and extends from Cheyenne Ave in North Las Vegas to Southern Highlands, then jumps The 15 to take in Silverado Ranch, Henderson's Anthem, and Old Henderson. And NV-04 now takes in the bulk of Northwest Vegas, Summerlin, North Las Vegas north of Cheyenne Ave, Boulder City, and all the outlying Clark County rural areas.



In this scenario, Dina Titus gets the district of her dreams, as she gets much of her old base (East Side and Green Valley) without most of the pesky Republican heavy turf causing her endless headaches in 2008 and 2010. John Oceguera then gets his own Silverado Ranch based district that he can fairly easily kick Joe Heck out of (unless Steven Horsford really wants to fight him for a district that stretches that far south and includes Joe Heck's Roma Hills mansion), and John Lee finally gets a moderate district with enough North Las Vegas in it that he can run in. Sadly for Ruben Kihuen, he's left without a chair once the music stops.

NV-01 (Purple):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58.8%
McCain (R) 39.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 48%

NV-03 (Blue):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 63.7%
McCain (R) 34.0%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010:
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 44%

NV-04 (Red):

US Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52.0%
McCain (R) 45.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

---

But wait, there's more!

In my third scenario, the court takes a similar approach to the second scenario... Except that instead of Northwest Vegas and North Las Vegas, NV-04 swoops in to take Southwest Vegas and most of Henderson south of The 215/Lake Mead Parkway. NV-03, meanwhile, is now 37.6% Latino CVAP (and 57.4% minority majority CVAP overall), but still extends from Nellis Air Force Base all the way south to Green Valley Ranch. And NV-01 now is confined west of The 15 (with a couple small exceptions in Downtown Las Vegas) and stretches from Aliante (the northern edge of North Las Vegas) and Northwest Vegas to West Las Vegas and Summerlin.



In this scenario, Dina Titus still gets the district of her dreams with a NV-03 that looks tailor made for her. But now with NV-01 taking in North Las Vegas, Steven Horsford may have the upper hand here. Local Democrats will feel no pressure to accept a ConservaDem like John Lee in a district this Democratic, but perhaps a Summerlin area Democrat (paging Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown?) could give Horsford some heartburn in the primary. Meanwhile in NV-04, John Oceguera must now face Joe Heck in a tougher district that Heck just might have the upper hand in. And again, Ruben Kihuen is left without a chair once the music stops.

NV-01 (Purple):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58.9%
McCain (R) 39.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 48%

NV-03 (Blue):

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 63.9%
McCain (R) 33.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010:
Harry Reid (D) 60%
Sharron Angle (R) 35%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 53%
Brian Sandoval (R) 44%

NV-04 (Red):

US Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.3%
McCain (R) 46.4%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
Rory Reid (D) 38%

Redistricting may very well change the dynamics of next year's Congressional elections here in Nevada, especially among a core group of powerful Clark County Democrats. Depending on the way the lines are drawn, either the State Senate Majority Leader or the State Assembly Speaker will have a tough time making the climb to Capitol Hill. And depending on the contours of the final map, either a rising young progressive star gets the promotion of a lifetime or a long time progressive stalwart gets the ultimate comeback.

Behind the Scenes (& Behind the Curtain) in Carson City

It's one thing to read Jon Ralston's musings on what's happening behind the scenes in Carson City, and it's something else to read Anjeanette Damon's reports on what may actually be on the legislative agenda. However, there's really no substitute for actually being there in person and seeing first-hand the negotiations and political games being played behind the scenes.

I was actually on The Senate floor right after they had "committee of the whole" to discuss the budget. I could sense the relief of Sandoval's new plan to restore a bit of the funding he wanted cut, but there seems to be broad agreement that it's still not enough, and that the only real solution is to ditch Sandoval's gimmicks and look at actual revenue solutions.

I actually talked with a Republican legislator who admitted all this (and more!) to me. This legislator said that Sandoval's proposal is a non-starter, that the 2009 tax deal will likely have to be extended, and that there's a possibility of further taxes being agreed upon... If they are satisfied with union concessions.

There really is an intriguing game of political chess happening in Carson City right now. Democratic leadership is figuring out where to find the votes to pass an actual balanced budget, and Republican leadership is trying to find "cover" so they can provide enough votes for a budget that won't anger "we the people" too much.

I had a chance to talk with three of my favorite legislators this week on what's happening up north. My Senator, Shirley Breeden (D-Henderson) (the first photo on top is of me with her and Parks), is busy doing her "homework", studying the numbers, and pressing for a final budget that keeps kids in school and keeps our hope for a better economy alive. David Parks (D-Paradise) is working hard on a number of LGBTQ equality bills (that you will be hearing more from me on soon!) and hopes for agreement on these as well as the budget. And as part of the new wave of Latin@ legislators providing some much needed representation in Carson, Ruben Kihuen is already off to an amazing start in The Senate... He even expressed some hope that his fellow legislators, especially on The Senate side, can work together this session.

Interestingly enough, there may actually be some opportunities for just that. That Republican legislator I spoke with was willing to keep an open mind on AB 211, the transgender inclusive workplace non-discrimination bill. Another Republican legislator apparently expressed concern over Sandoval's proposed budget cuts this week, and signaled support for the LGBTQ equality bills. And even though GOP leadership are playing "hard to get" right now in demanding some of the same union busting run amok in Wisconsin and Michigan, they may also be realizing that they can only ask for so much, and that it may not be too smart to antagonize working Nevadans when they've already sacrificed plenty and are ready to share in even more sacrifice this year.

Hopefully, what I saw behind the scenes in Carson City this week are real signs of hope that our Legislature will be working on actual solutions that will make Nevada an even better state. The "sausage making process" may be messy, but let's keep pushing them to ensure the final product is safe for human consumption.

(By the way, I just want to thank Senators Breeden, Kihuen, and Parks for the warm welcome, as well as those GOP legislators who are willing to do their "homework" and put the people of Nevada first. Oh, and PLAN lobbyist and legislative whiz Jan Gilbert is awesome... Go follow her on Twitter @jangilbert1. NOW!) ;-)

Home Means Nevada: The Congressional Redistricting (Part I)

(Note: I like to comment over at Swing State Project, so I decided to try my hand at redistricting and create a map that we might see emerge from The Legislature later this year. So here it is... And there it is at SSP as well.)

It is here. After hours of careful line drawing and days of poring over precinct results, the map has arrived. This is Nevada redistricted, baby!

So will the actual final map look something like this? Honestly, I don't know for sure. Perhaps legislators on both sides of the aisle will want even safer seats and are willing to configure some gruesome looking districts to get them... Or perhaps last minute talks of redistricting collapse as a casualty in an ongoing state budget brawl, leaving the courts to ultimately draw the lines. But most likely, as is usual tradition, The Nevada Legislature will agree on some sort of last minute budget deal, and on a bipartisan redistricting gerrymander.

Still, this year is different. As population continues to swell in Clark County (Greater Las Vegas), political power is slowly-but-surely shifting southward as well. Clark is destined to pick up as many as three legislative seats from the north, as well as a brand new Congressional District. For the first time ever, three Las Vegas area politicians will likely be sent to The House of Representatives.

And for the first time ever, Nevada will likely have three open House seats! It's looking increasingly likely that both Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) will run for the US Senate seat currently held by John Ensign (R-Sleaze), so legislators may very well be drawing the new district map with this in mind. And more importantly, they will likely be keeping in mind that some of their own, as well as a few powerful friends outside, will want to run in each of these open seats.



In drawing this map, I had several objectives in mind. First, I didn't want to grossly "over-gerrymander" DeLay style, especially since law suits are already being filed here. But while I didn't want to go overboard, I did clearly have campaign politics in mind while drawing these districts. There are two minority-majority seats, one having a Latino plurality, designed to elect Democrats, and two seats engineered to be as Republican leaning as possible.

So did I succeed? We'll have to wait and see. Nevada Democrats may very well see unprecedented primary action in NV-01 and NV-04. And while NV-02 and NV-03 are currently held by Republicans, they will have to continue to fight an increasingly tough battle against changing Reno and Las Vegas demographics in the decade to come.

So enough of me blathering on and on... Let's check out the new districts!



NV-02

Population: 675,162
69.4% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

First up, the second district. (We're starting north, and heading south.) Dean Heller currently represents this seat. And even though he's only done so since 2007, it seems pretty natural for him. He's a long time Carson City person (both in residence and in Nevada political experience), and he has a conservative-but-not-too-fire-breathing persona that allows him to win comfortably a district that only barely voted for John McCain (by fewer than 100 votes!) in 2008.

However, this will likely change. Again, Heller may very well soon announce his campaign for US Senate, leaving this seat open for the first time since Jim Gibbons left this seat to run for Governor in 2006. And due to Reno area growth, NV-02 has to shed some rural territory to meet the new Census Bureau population guideline. So what happens?

Long story short, NV-02 is now a district that narrowly voted for Barack Obama and Sharron Angle. It's a closely divided district that will provide a challenge for the typically mighty Washoe Republicans, in that they will need to settle on a candidate who can please GOP primary voters while being able to win enough moderate voters in the general election to keep this seat in GOP hands.

Who's All In?

Again, Dean Heller looks to be out, but a final decision hasn't yet be made, so he might still surprise us by staying put. Of course, there has also been plenty of talk of Sharron Angle running (again) for this seat. Even though she carried this district by 5.8% in her Senate run against Harry Reid last year, 2012 will be a Presidential year with higher Reno area turnout. And as we saw on the campaign trail last year, Angle couldn't even make peace with her fellow Washoe Republicans, so she will have a much harder time holding onto this seat than someone like Heller (who narrowly beat Angle in the 2006 NV-02 GOP primary).

The Wild Cards

Funny enough, I haven't heard much gossip (yet) over who may be angling for this seat... Other than the obvious. And even though they were just recently sworn into The State Senate (one elected, the other appointed), Reno Republicans Ben Kieckhefer and Greg Brower may be attractive to GOP leaders as they likely search for electable mainstream conservatives to stop Sharron Angle. On the Democratic side, the options aren't quite as wide. Nevada State Treasurer Kate Marshall does live in Reno, but she hasn't expressed interest in running for Congress... Can Sharron Angle change that?

2010 US Senate Results
49.6% Angle (R)
43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
49% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican if Dean Heller runs here again, but upgraded to Leans Republican if Heller runs for Senate, and upgraded further to Tossup should Sharron Angle run to replace him!

NV-03

Population: 674,792
66.5% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

In the "Republican Wave" year of 2010, Joe Heck barely won with less than 50% of the vote and by fewer than 2,000 votes. That worries Nevada Republicans, and that's why GOP legislators (especially those in Clark) will likely go to the mat to make NV-03 safer for Heck.

Mr. "War Hero" Heck could barely beat supposedly reviled "Las Vegas LIB'RUL!!!" Dina Titus by fewer than 2,000 votes, and for Heck's campaign to succeed in a likely more Democratic friendly environment in 2012, this must change. So it has... At least here on my map.

Dina's political base is widely acknowledged to be the progressive minded, ethnically diverse, labor union heavy, and LGBT friendly confines of The East Side, also known as "Paradise Township", which consists the older neighborhoods just east of The Las Vegas Strip. So to shore up Heck, I removed The East Side from NV-03 and placed it instead in the newly created NV-04 seat (more on that later!).

Now in addition to that, Heck also had a problem much closer to home. Even though Heck lives in Henderson, both he and Sharron Angle lost a number of Henderson precincts just down the hill from him in uber-exclusive Roma Hills, in the slightly older (meaning built in the 1980s and 90s) and increasingly Democratic friendly neighborhoods of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch. So to further shore up Heck, I also placed these areas in NV-04 (again, more on that later, including who this also helps!).

Instead, I gave Heck only the most Republican friendly parts of NV-03, and supplemented them with mostly GOP heavy areas previously in NV-01 and NV-02. The perennially stylish and upscale Summerlin development (including "retiree heaven" Sun City Summerlin) is almost entirely reunited here, and joined by a number of previously fast growing Northwest and Southwest valley exurbs. From there, NV-03 almost exclusively picks up the most conservative neighborhoods of Henderson, including wealthy Seven Hills and Anthem (including "retirement resort community" Sun City Anthem), as well as Old Henderson. In addition, NV-03 takes in all the rural Clark County communities (such as Mesquite, Primm, and Laughlin) outside The Las Vegas Valley.

Oh, and of course, all those rural areas previously in NV-02, from Ely to Hawthorne to Pahrump, have to go somewhere. They end up here... But they could end up being a double-edged sword for Joe Heck.

Who's All In?

From all indications, Joe Heck wants to run for reelection, and this map will surely entice him to do so again. However, he's not completely out of the woods yet. In fact, like the situation in NV-02, he will have to balance appealing to moderate suburban voters who may very well vote for President Obama again (who STILL won this district in 2008) with keeping "tea party" GOP primary voters happy. It's no easy task.

The Wild Cards

Should "Tea Party, Inc." ever fall out of favor with Heck, or Heck just decides to run for yet another higher office later this decade, they have a number of local GOPers to choose from. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Las Vegas) is seen by many as a rising "tea party" superstar, and State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) is a long time right-wing stalwart. They're basically Vegas' answer to Sharron Angle, and Cegavske has already dropped hints of a future Congressional run. And of course, it's not like "Chicken Lady" Sue Lowden is ever really leaving the political stage any time soon.

However, they can easily be stopped cold in their tracks. Why? Look at the partisan numbers. Angle only barely won this district last year, and Obama may very well win this district again next year. Joe Heck may have a hard enough time locking down this seat, but the task becomes even more difficult should he ever leave (or be primaried out).

Even though the rural areas (save for Mineral County) may be incredibly difficult for any Democrat to win, a Democrat may once again win this district if he or she can run up the margin enough in Vegas. In the future, the incredibly smart and talented State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) may have a once-in-a-lifetime opening to go from Carson's Capitol to Capitol Hill... Or perhaps it will be Henderson Mayor Andy Hafen, someone from a long-time "Nevada royal family" who lives in the slice of Henderson staying in NV-03... Or maybe wonky "deficit hawk", Clark County Commissioner, and current Las Vegas Mayoral Candidate Larry Brown (D-Summerlin)?

2010 US Senate Results
Angle (R) 48.5%
Reid (D) 46.3%

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican



NV-01

Population: 675,212
44.4% Latino (38.7% voting age)
31.7% White (37.3% voting age)
14.7% African American (14.7% voting age)



The State of Play

"Your Favorite Congresswoman", Shelley Berkley, may soon be looking to move to greener pastures. And who can blame her? She's back in the minority in The House. She doesn't have the best relationship with Nancy Pelosi. In many ways, she's boxed in... Unless she stomps outside that box in her signature bedazzled pumps and forges new ground with a Senate run.

So that may very well happen, and if it does we have yet another open seat battle here in Nevada! But unlike NV-02, all the drama will be in the Democratic primary.

Assuming Shelley runs for Senate, her Summerlin area stomping grounds are moved aside to NV-03 and NV-04, so NV-01 can become more of a minority-majority district and help the state's Congressional Delegation better reflect the diversity of our fine state.

So instead, some heavily Latino Northeast precincts previously in NV-03 are moved here, even as other heavily Latino East Side precincts are shifted from NV-01 to the new NV-04 seat. Now, Latino and African American heavy North Las Vegas becomes the centerpiece of the district, complemented by the Democratic dominant inner city neighborhoods of Las Vegas.

See the recurring theme here? Notice how this affects the 2012 field below.

Who's All In?

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) had been seen as a rising star for years, but now he's made it to the top. He's among the most powerful pols in Carson City today, as well as the highest ranked African American in state government alongside Supreme Court Chief Justice Michael Douglas. His career has been illustrious, but it hasn't always been easy.

He's now locked in a tough budget battle with Governor Brian Sandoval (R) and GOP legislators, and he is one of the very people overseeing this entire redistricting process. If he truly wants to run for Congress, he has to make miracles happen in Carson City this year, otherwise...

The Wild Cards

"Conventional Wisdom" here in Vegas may again be turned on its head. After all, this is now a Latino plurality seat. State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) knows this first hand as one of the youngest Senators, as someone raised in an immigrant Mexican American family who climbed his way all the way up here, and as someone who's succeeded despite earning the ire of the once omnipotent Culinary 226. While Kihuen himself hasn't expressed interest in running, especially after just being elected as State Senator, his name has been floated around.

State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) actually has signaled interest in running, but he's probably too moderate to win the Democratic primary in this district.

And sorry, Republicans, but there are virtually no GOP candidates who even want to try here.

2010 US Senate Results
62.9% Reid (D)
32.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
67% Obama (D)
31% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+14

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

NV-04

Population: 675,294
49.0% White (53.4% voting age)
27.0% Latino (23.2% voting age)
11.5% Asian American (12.0% voting age)



The State of Play

This is the story of "The Comeback Kid". After being beat up and beat down, it's time to rise again and shine in the glorious Mojave Desert Sun. But wait, whose comeback are we talking about?

Can it be Dina Titus'? After all, she's no stranger to comebacks. After her surprisingly-but-still-painfully close loss to Jim Gibbons in the 2006 Gubernatorial Election, she was written off for (politically) "dead". But when Democrats wanted to contest NV-03 in 2008 (and Harry Reid's political team wanted to do away with Jon Porter as a possible 2010 candidate against him) and their originally preferred candidate turned out to be a dud, they had nowhere else to go. Dina obliged, and she then found her redemption... Only to lose it again last year, and by less than 2,000 votes! But is Dina's story really over?

Or can Rory Reid's find a new beginning? He was heralded for ending a painful period of local political corruption culminating in the saucy, racy "G Sting" FBI probe that took down a voting majority of Clark County Commissioners for taking bribes from stripper clubs out to put rival clubs out of business. He was commended for thinking ahead and pushing Clark County to take seriously matters of sustainable growth. He was seen as a real contender, then the 2010 Gubernatorial race happened and he was lost in translation as the Reno powers that be championed Brian Sandoval as their "anointed one". It was so strange to see Rory's political career cut short so abruptly last year, but can it be regrown?

Or can Barbara Buckley's be reborn? After all, she was seen as the most powerful Assembly Speaker seen in ages. She was the once dismissed "bleeding heart liberal" who then rocked the political establishment with legislative accomplishments on everything from patients' rights to child welfare to home foreclosure mediation and prevention. And at one point, she looked to be quite the formidable candidate for Governor... Until she stepped aside for Rory Reid... But will she be so willing to step aside again?

Funny enough, all three of these big name Clark Democrats live in this newly created Congressional District. It starts in the more Democratic friendly Summerlin area neighborhoods, then leaps down to Buckley's home base of Spring Valley, then crosses The 15 and Las Vegas Boulevard to jump into Dina's East Side turf, then turns south to take in Rory's 'hood in the Green Valley part of Henderson. Either there will be some heated back room negotiations among party leaders on who gets this seat, or there will be a primary so exciting it may even eclipse the drama of the 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary that Dina wasn't "supposed to win".

The Wild Cards

But wait, the list of candidates isn't even over yet! There's another potential suitor possibly waiting in the wings. After Barbara Buckley was termed out of The Assembly last year, John Oceguera became the new Speaker. However, this gig won't last long. He will be termed out himself next year. And even though he himself hasn't suggested it, his name has also been rumored for a run here. If he wins, he will be Nevada's first Native American member of Congress. His challenge will probably be succeeding in this legislative session (a shared goal with Horsford) and not letting the recent drama over Las Vegas/Clark County firefighter pay take him down (even though he's actually a North Las Vegas firefighter, and they've had no labor trouble there).

On the Republican side, however, it's slim pickings. Perhaps Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) or State Senator Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) can try, but both are far too conservative to even get close. After all, both only barely defeated their Democratic opponents last year.

2010 US Senate Results
55.9% Reid (D)
39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
60% Obama (D)
37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic for now... And probably eventually becoming Safe Democratic barring any major scandal or unusually strong GOP candidate.

So this is my first Nevada map, a map I had with state legislators and certain big name pols in mind. In the future, I may draw more maps under different scenarios, such as Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley staying put in The House, or what might happen should The Legislature come crashing down over the state budget, forcing the courts to draw the final lines.

Let me know what you think and/or if you have your own maps to share. :-)