Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Ralston's Odds on 2010... What He's Saying Now & My Take on It

Remember when Jon Ralston released his latest odds on 2010 in September and I added my $0.02? Well, it's time to do it again! He just released his latest 2010 predictions, and as usual I'll be adding my thoughts below:

- Ralston expects Harry Reid to survive this year and remain Senate Majority Leader next year. I agree, since we know how incompetent the GOoPers have proven themselves to be.

- Ralston thinks Sue Lowden will survive the GOP primary to win the honor of losing to Harry Reid this fall. And on this, I may just have to disagree. Sure, she has a slight lead in the polls now... But Danny Tarkanian seems to be more of a radical right favorite, Lowden still isn't trusted by so many in her own party, and Sharron Angle is gaining fast on both of them. Right now, I'll say Lil' Tark Shark has a slight edge over Lowden with Angle fast becoming a real upset possibility (which I'm sure the Reid campaign will REALLY appreciate!).

- Ralston says Brian Sandoval is favored to become our next Governor. And again, I'll have to disagree for now. No one really knows yet what will become of Rory Reid's game changing Clark County shake-up plan. And of course...

- Ralston is not expecting... Or should I say, he doesn't want Oscar Goodman to run for Governor as an Independent. And again, I'll have to disagree. Goodman already changed his voter registration, fought with Culinary and the public employee unions, and started speaking up more often on controversial state issues like statewide legalization of prostitution. Basically, it sounds to me like Goodman is running for Governor, he's doing so his way, and he doesn't care if Sandoval and Reid, Jr., have hurt feelings.

- Ralston expects Dina Titus to defeat Joe Heck and hold onto NV-03. I'll agree here, since I live here, I'm getting to know the district, and I just think our district is trending away from the GOP. The Democratic registration edge alone should be enough to prevent the GOoPers from becoming haughty... But they already have, and their pride is coming before the fall (again).

- Ralston says that Democrats will keep both houses of the Legislature. I agree, although I want to wait and see all of who's running where before I start making specific numerical predictions.

- And finally, Ralston thinks Republicans will hold a majority of the statewide constitutional offices. I'm not sure yet, as (like above) I want to see all the candidates before laying any bets here.

So in summary, this will be a very interesting 2010. It may be a somewhat bad year for Democrats, or it may be yet another chance for the Republicans to embarrass themselves. As the year goes on, we'll get a better idea of what to expect.

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