So tonight is debate night... Again. I'm sure we'll see Mitt Romney continue to articulate his "vision" for destroying America's middle class.
And I'm sure we'll see Herman Cain refer to Herman Cain in the third person.
Oh, wait... What is this? I think we have ourselves the entire GOP debate!
Seriously, it might as well be. Have they said anything that really resonates with working class families? Do they care at all about working class families?
Oh, and by the way, the new Univision poll confirms the growing polling trend suggesting that none of the G-O-TEA clowns really has what it takes to challenge Obama. Wow. Why am I not surprised?
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
"DOOMED??!!"... Maybe the G-O-TEA Really Is.
Doomed, I tell you!
Of course, the marquee fight of the night was over Ohio's SB 5. The radical right was trying to silence the voice of Ohio's working class... And the radical right just fell flat on its face as its signature legislative item went down in flames.
And in case that wasn't enough, homophobic bigotry went down in flames in Iowa as Republicans failed to flip Iowa's State Senate.
And the effort to suppress voter rights in Maine went down in flames as Mainers voted to reinstate their 38 year old law allowing for same day voter registration.
And the extreme right's attempt to outlaw not just abortion rights, but even birth control, in vetro fertilization, and emergency care to save women's lives, in Mississippi went down in flames as the "Call the Zygote a Person" initiative was soundly defeated.
The message last night couldn't have been any clearer: Voters rejected G-O-TEA extremism! In all these states, the radical right tried to pass off this radical agenda as "common sense", but voters weren't having any of it. They're still wondering where the jobs are. After all, last year they promised to show "laser focus" on the economy and job creation. Whatever happened to that?
Seriously, look at what GOP leaders have been pushing in Congress. And look at what they've been doing in the states. They may have promised "JOBS!", but instead they're delivering anti-worker, anti-woman, anti-equality, nonsense that does nothing but distract us with "TEH CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!"
Last night, voters in several states finally had a chance to have their say on this. And so far, it looks like they have no appetite for it. So what makes anyone think they'll want more next year? Americans are waiting for that "laser focus" on economic recovery and job creation. Where is it? Are Republicans noticing? If not, then they really need to stop gloating about President Obama's reelection being "DOOMED!"
Just saying.
The outcomes Tuesday in balloting from Maine to Mississippi included enough wins for Democrats, abortion rights advocates, and labor unions to give a bit of a lift to President Obama and his allies as they look toward the 2012 elections, 12 months from tonight.
In Ohio, voters overwhelmingly rejected the law enacted last spring by Gov. John Kasich and the Republican-controlled legislature that limited the ability of public employee unions to collectively bargain.
The law also would have required performance-based pay for most public employees and required them to pay 15 percent of the cost of their health care benefits.
Democratic National Committee Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz cheered the outcome in Ohio calling the law “a blatantly partisan attempt to lay the blame for our economy on middle-class Americans, while letting the wealthiest and special interests off the hook and not asking them to pay their fair share. Voters in Ohio know that targeting public employees for political reasons will do nothing to create jobs or boost Ohio’s economy.”
Of course, the marquee fight of the night was over Ohio's SB 5. The radical right was trying to silence the voice of Ohio's working class... And the radical right just fell flat on its face as its signature legislative item went down in flames.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
And in case that wasn't enough, homophobic bigotry went down in flames in Iowa as Republicans failed to flip Iowa's State Senate.
And the effort to suppress voter rights in Maine went down in flames as Mainers voted to reinstate their 38 year old law allowing for same day voter registration.
And the extreme right's attempt to outlaw not just abortion rights, but even birth control, in vetro fertilization, and emergency care to save women's lives, in Mississippi went down in flames as the "Call the Zygote a Person" initiative was soundly defeated.
The message last night couldn't have been any clearer: Voters rejected G-O-TEA extremism! In all these states, the radical right tried to pass off this radical agenda as "common sense", but voters weren't having any of it. They're still wondering where the jobs are. After all, last year they promised to show "laser focus" on the economy and job creation. Whatever happened to that?
Seriously, look at what GOP leaders have been pushing in Congress. And look at what they've been doing in the states. They may have promised "JOBS!", but instead they're delivering anti-worker, anti-woman, anti-equality, nonsense that does nothing but distract us with "TEH CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!"
Last night, voters in several states finally had a chance to have their say on this. And so far, it looks like they have no appetite for it. So what makes anyone think they'll want more next year? Americans are waiting for that "laser focus" on economic recovery and job creation. Where is it? Are Republicans noticing? If not, then they really need to stop gloating about President Obama's reelection being "DOOMED!"
Just saying.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Why the Media Don't Get Obama's Campaign
To be fair, how can one really explain this?
How can we explain this (the new NBC/WSJ poll showing President Obama leading both Mitt Romney and Herman Cain by healthy margins)?
Let me try. First off, President Obama really has a solid campaign... And all the early investment is already starting to show results. As we've talked about here before, folks in "Middle America" may not be excited about Obama, but they're also not stupid enough to believe he alone is the cause of all our problems. Contrary to what Nate Silver suggested last weekend, most Americans may really be smart enough to know this election is more about "Obama vs. Not Obama".
Again, OFA is making a real, early investment in building a strong campaign. While pundits in The Beltway obsess over this and other polls, OFA volunteers are on the ground, knocking doors, making calls, and registering more voters. And while the Republicans keep beating each other up over salacious scandals and tea party ideological "purity", OFA volunteers are recruiting even more volunteers as new offices open, more Democratic voters are getting calls, and more neighbors are seeing friendly OFA volunteers at their doorsteps.
It also helps that The White House has finally been succeeding in honing in on a strong economic message. Obama has had to figure out how to get past the obstructionist Congress to deliver his message directly to the American people. He's had to deliver his own message while also allowing Americans to realize who his Republican opponents really are. And he's had to demonstrate to the country exactly how Congressional Republicans are out to sabotage economic recovery and threaten the well-being of the country.
This certainly hasn't been an easy task, especially considering the mostly negative coverage of Obama by the media. I know that whenever I turn on the TV and flip on one of the cable "news" channels, I see this in full force. But when I go out and talk to other people in my local community, the opinions I hear are far more complex and thought-out than the typical TV shouting match.
And maybe that really explains it all. While Obama's campaign is busily, though relatively quietly, building up its volunteer base and developing its road map to winning next year, it's not really creating the kind of incessant drama we're seeing on the GOP/"tea party" side of the aisle. So of course, "NEW!" and "SEXY!" and "CRAZY!" win out and get the media fawning... But they're not fooling the majority of Americans that are getting sick and tired of the craven political games being played by Beltway Republicans as real proposals to put Americans back to work are being blocked.
Yes, Americans are angry... But it's a mistake for media pundits to just assume that "Americans hate Obama!" because the economy isn't in ideal shape. And it's a mistake to completely ignore why we're where we are now. And it's a mistake to just assume that Koch Industries and Karl Rove funded TV ads matter more than the real people power we're seeing develop here in the real world. And it's a mistake to just assume that voters are too stupid to figure out who caused the mess we're in today.
This 2012 campaign certainly promises to be a wild roller coaster ride. It's just too bad that too many in the media prefer to toss real facts and figures overboard as they take us on another wild ride through hype and speculation.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
How can we explain this (the new NBC/WSJ poll showing President Obama leading both Mitt Romney and Herman Cain by healthy margins)?
Let me try. First off, President Obama really has a solid campaign... And all the early investment is already starting to show results. As we've talked about here before, folks in "Middle America" may not be excited about Obama, but they're also not stupid enough to believe he alone is the cause of all our problems. Contrary to what Nate Silver suggested last weekend, most Americans may really be smart enough to know this election is more about "Obama vs. Not Obama".
Again, OFA is making a real, early investment in building a strong campaign. While pundits in The Beltway obsess over this and other polls, OFA volunteers are on the ground, knocking doors, making calls, and registering more voters. And while the Republicans keep beating each other up over salacious scandals and tea party ideological "purity", OFA volunteers are recruiting even more volunteers as new offices open, more Democratic voters are getting calls, and more neighbors are seeing friendly OFA volunteers at their doorsteps.
It also helps that The White House has finally been succeeding in honing in on a strong economic message. Obama has had to figure out how to get past the obstructionist Congress to deliver his message directly to the American people. He's had to deliver his own message while also allowing Americans to realize who his Republican opponents really are. And he's had to demonstrate to the country exactly how Congressional Republicans are out to sabotage economic recovery and threaten the well-being of the country.
This certainly hasn't been an easy task, especially considering the mostly negative coverage of Obama by the media. I know that whenever I turn on the TV and flip on one of the cable "news" channels, I see this in full force. But when I go out and talk to other people in my local community, the opinions I hear are far more complex and thought-out than the typical TV shouting match.
And maybe that really explains it all. While Obama's campaign is busily, though relatively quietly, building up its volunteer base and developing its road map to winning next year, it's not really creating the kind of incessant drama we're seeing on the GOP/"tea party" side of the aisle. So of course, "NEW!" and "SEXY!" and "CRAZY!" win out and get the media fawning... But they're not fooling the majority of Americans that are getting sick and tired of the craven political games being played by Beltway Republicans as real proposals to put Americans back to work are being blocked.
Yes, Americans are angry... But it's a mistake for media pundits to just assume that "Americans hate Obama!" because the economy isn't in ideal shape. And it's a mistake to completely ignore why we're where we are now. And it's a mistake to just assume that Koch Industries and Karl Rove funded TV ads matter more than the real people power we're seeing develop here in the real world. And it's a mistake to just assume that voters are too stupid to figure out who caused the mess we're in today.
This 2012 campaign certainly promises to be a wild roller coaster ride. It's just too bad that too many in the media prefer to toss real facts and figures overboard as they take us on another wild ride through hype and speculation.
Monday, November 7, 2011
OFA Nevada... Still Full of Hope, & for Good Reason!
Yesterday, we discussed Ralston's column and surprise in the media over President Obama's campaign. Can Obama survive? Is it possible? Yes, it really is.
OFA Nevada had another busy week last week. Their new Henderson office is now open, and people have been pouring in to volunteer. On Wednesday, OFA did a phone bank... And none other than the Clark County Democratic Party Chair dropped by to make some calls!
And on Saturday, a group of OFA California volunteers made a weekend road trip here to help the locals with voter registration and canvassing. There were also phone bankers making calls inside the office.
Now does this look like a "hopelessly doomed" campaign to you? Does this look like a losing campaign to you? It certainly doesn't to me.
I've yet to hear of this much excitement on the GOP side. I know Ron Paul's people are throwing their signs all over town again. Wow. But really, who on their side is doing house parties, staging phone banks, and generating any sort of grassroots excitement? And President Obama supposedly has the "hopelessly doomed" campaign?
OFA Nevada had another busy week last week. Their new Henderson office is now open, and people have been pouring in to volunteer. On Wednesday, OFA did a phone bank... And none other than the Clark County Democratic Party Chair dropped by to make some calls!
And on Saturday, a group of OFA California volunteers made a weekend road trip here to help the locals with voter registration and canvassing. There were also phone bankers making calls inside the office.
Now does this look like a "hopelessly doomed" campaign to you? Does this look like a losing campaign to you? It certainly doesn't to me.
I've yet to hear of this much excitement on the GOP side. I know Ron Paul's people are throwing their signs all over town again. Wow. But really, who on their side is doing house parties, staging phone banks, and generating any sort of grassroots excitement? And President Obama supposedly has the "hopelessly doomed" campaign?
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Surprise? GOP Fumbles Advantage?
Who could have guessed this?
Who could have guessed?
Who could have guessed?
Who could have guessed?
Out here in the real world, we've been seeing this at play. I guess all the fumbling at the top is now getting the pundits' attention. The Nevada Republican Party has been making a big deal out of this caucus and its supposed potential to turn Nevada Red again.
But really, what can a day of dropping paper in a box do for them? They don't seem to be organizing. They don't seem to want newcomers. And they don't want anything that strays from teabagger approved ideological purity.
So we're supposed to believe they have what it takes to flip Nevada Red? Really? And we're supposed to be surprised when we start seeing signs that they can't?
I'll be surprised when I hear media pundits express shock when Jon Ralston tries to tell them this, even though I shouldn't.
The party was finally getting professional, the GOP prospects to win the presidential and U.S. Senate races here were looking good and they believed the redistricting court fight was going their way. [...]
But now, a year from the election, the Republicans have shown signs of bumbling at the top, their Senate candidate has made an uncharacteristically undisciplined (and potentially costly) error and the Democrats now have a reason to see blue — in a good way — because of final redistricting maps.
It’s advantage, Democrats, again in Nevada, — and the feeling is eerily similar to one year out from the 2010 election, when Harry Reid was a dead man walking, only to be reanimated by an electrifying Democratic machine and shocking GOP ineptitude. Both elements seem to be there again as the Republicans seemed to have forgotten to read their Santayana.
Who could have guessed?
Who could have guessed?
Who could have guessed?
Out here in the real world, we've been seeing this at play. I guess all the fumbling at the top is now getting the pundits' attention. The Nevada Republican Party has been making a big deal out of this caucus and its supposed potential to turn Nevada Red again.
But really, what can a day of dropping paper in a box do for them? They don't seem to be organizing. They don't seem to want newcomers. And they don't want anything that strays from teabagger approved ideological purity.
So we're supposed to believe they have what it takes to flip Nevada Red? Really? And we're supposed to be surprised when we start seeing signs that they can't?
I'll be surprised when I hear media pundits express shock when Jon Ralston tries to tell them this, even though I shouldn't.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Coming This Weekend...
We'll have another report on what OFA is up to locally. We'll also discuss all the primary madness that broke out this week. Oh, and we'll also check out what's happening on the other side of the aisle. (Don't forget about their own primary madness.)
All in all, this should be an exciting weekend...
All in all, this should be an exciting weekend...
Thursday, November 3, 2011
NV-03: The Other Primary Coming... James Haning Speaks Out
Last week, we discussed the surprising news about an unknown Democrat filing in NV-03. While everyone else today is talking about that other primary fight brewing, I have an interesting update on James Haning. I actually had a chance to speak with him on the phone yesterday, and he wanted to respond to the controversy developing over his entry into the race.
I asked him about health care, and Haning responded that he generally supports the Affordable Care Act. He just wants to see changes in the tax provisions, as he said he wants to ensure small businesses aren't penalized. Yet when I asked him whether he supports changes in the exchange, specifically in allowing for a public option, he declined to endorse inclusion of a public option.
I also asked him about the Deficit Super-committee and the current proposals on their table. Haning responded that he doesn't support any of the proposals currently on the table. He says he wants to find waste in government, such as empty federally owned buildings, to cut. He also said he's open to reforming the payroll tax to include annual income over $100,000. However, he's apparently not open to any benefit cuts for seniors and disabled people on Social Security and Medicare.
Later, Haning and I discussed the current controversy over home foreclosures. He stressed that he disagreed with Mitt Romney's suggestion to "don't stop the foreclosure process". Rather, he directed me to his housing issues page and the policy prescription he offers there. He also supports Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto's criminal investigation of Bank of America and its home loan practices.
I then asked Haning about his views on immigration. He said he supports comprehensive immigration reform. And while he said he'd be open to a pathway to legal citizenship for currently undocumented workers, he wouldn't flat out endorse one. He also wouldn't endorse Arizona's SB 1070 or the other state level anti-immigrant statutes. He also wouldn't specifically endorse the Uniting American Families Act, stating that repealing DOMA and would allow for LGBTQ equality in our immigration policy.
(And for the record, Haning stressed that he supports full LGBTQ equality. He did specifically endorse ENDA and the Respect for Marriage Act.)
Haning also stated he is a registered Nevada voter and mostly long time Nevada resident, even though I've talked with people who have yet to find his Nevada voter registration. Haning nonetheless insisted he lives in NV-03.
And yes, he indeed plans to run in NV-03... Against John Oceguera, though he stressed he's focused on defeating Joe Heck. We'll have to wait and see what's in store in NV-03. But without a doubt, the race here is getting more interesting.
I asked him about health care, and Haning responded that he generally supports the Affordable Care Act. He just wants to see changes in the tax provisions, as he said he wants to ensure small businesses aren't penalized. Yet when I asked him whether he supports changes in the exchange, specifically in allowing for a public option, he declined to endorse inclusion of a public option.
I also asked him about the Deficit Super-committee and the current proposals on their table. Haning responded that he doesn't support any of the proposals currently on the table. He says he wants to find waste in government, such as empty federally owned buildings, to cut. He also said he's open to reforming the payroll tax to include annual income over $100,000. However, he's apparently not open to any benefit cuts for seniors and disabled people on Social Security and Medicare.
Later, Haning and I discussed the current controversy over home foreclosures. He stressed that he disagreed with Mitt Romney's suggestion to "don't stop the foreclosure process". Rather, he directed me to his housing issues page and the policy prescription he offers there. He also supports Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto's criminal investigation of Bank of America and its home loan practices.
I then asked Haning about his views on immigration. He said he supports comprehensive immigration reform. And while he said he'd be open to a pathway to legal citizenship for currently undocumented workers, he wouldn't flat out endorse one. He also wouldn't endorse Arizona's SB 1070 or the other state level anti-immigrant statutes. He also wouldn't specifically endorse the Uniting American Families Act, stating that repealing DOMA and would allow for LGBTQ equality in our immigration policy.
(And for the record, Haning stressed that he supports full LGBTQ equality. He did specifically endorse ENDA and the Respect for Marriage Act.)
Haning also stated he is a registered Nevada voter and mostly long time Nevada resident, even though I've talked with people who have yet to find his Nevada voter registration. Haning nonetheless insisted he lives in NV-03.
And yes, he indeed plans to run in NV-03... Against John Oceguera, though he stressed he's focused on defeating Joe Heck. We'll have to wait and see what's in store in NV-03. But without a doubt, the race here is getting more interesting.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Doomed, I Tell You... Wait, You Mean He's LEADING?
On Monday, we took a closer look at what's happening in Nevada as campaign season heats up and pundits keep debating whether President Obama is "doomed". But this morning, we got something that the pundits could probably better understand: a shiny new poll.
“President Barack Obama seems to be improving in voters’ eyes almost across-the-board,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in a release. “He scores big gains among the groups with whom he has had the most problems - whites and men. Women also shift from a five-point negative to a four-point positive.”
The President leads all his possible GOP challengers outside the poll’s margin of error. He bests former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney by a 47 - 42 margin and Texas Gov. Rick Perry 52 - 36, while out ahead of businessman Herman Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by double digits as well. All tallies are improvements from a month ago for Obama. Romney is the only GOP candidate that pulls more support from independent voters than Obama, although Cain comes within one point. The key against Romney is female voters — Obama gets 50 percent against Romney’s 38, while they evenly split males.
The improvement comes on the heels of a heavy travel schedule of more than a month for Obama, who took his push for a major jobs package into swing states is the Midwest, South and Mountain West. When Congress stalled on the jobs package, the President moved on to “We Can’t Wait,” a series of executive orders that he says will help alleviate some of the economic hardship, from new rules on foreclosures to helping with student loan debt.
Oh jeez, who would have imagined that the American Jobs Act would prove to be this popular? You mean Americans want JOBS??!!
And wait, foreclosures aren't popular? So not only is a total housing meltdown bad for the economy, but Americans may not like it? Sorry, Mitt Romney.
And in case that wasn't bad enough news for Mittens, it also looks like he still can't get Republican primary voters to like him. In Quinnipiac's GOP primary trial heat, Herman Cain leads Mitt Romney 30% to 23%. Ouch! Apparently, GOP primary voters would easily take someone facing serious sexual harrassment allegations and someone who shows no desire to even try learning basic foreign policy over Flip-flop Romney.
And before Quinnipiac's new poll is dismissed as some "outlier", take a look at the bigger picture. For all the media hype about "Obama DOOMED!!!", none of the Republican candidates can beat Obama. That really says a lot.
I know that as campaign season progresses, polls will continue to rise and fall. Media speculation will become even more rampant, along with the total lack of real insight and analysis that we've come to expect in today's world of "infotainment". I just find it funny that amidst all the hoopla over every new GOP frontrunner who's lucky to last as long as Kim Kardashian's marriage, they still can't find someone who seems ready to really challenge Obama.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
The Future's Still Waiting for Us
This week, the City of Henderson is hosting the Global Solar Summit. Why?
Why, again?
Why, again?
Oh yes, that's why.
There are good jobs and a more stable economy awaiting us. Instead of wasting even more money on bailouts for dirty energy, we can invest in our future by investing in renewable energy and the green economy. Renewable resources like solar are increasingly in demand, and the Obama Administration just opened another 285,000 acres of public land for solar development. So what are we waiting for?
Really, why are we waiting? The future won't wait for us forever.
Bob Cooper, the city’s economic development manager, said the conference, the first of its kind in Nevada, is dedicated to getting leading companies in solar energy development to think of the valley as a frontier for the solar economy. He said currently there are no solar panel makers in the valley but that there is a potential for jobs in manufacturing and construction.
“We’re looking to help local businesses to secure new contracts and start initial conversations with panel manufacturers,” Cooper said.
Why, again?
Johnathan Pickering, president of JA Solar, the largest solar cell supplier in the world, said the combination of a growing solar industry and the steep decline in the price of a solar panel makes it an optimal time to invest in solar energy. Las Vegas, he said, gets twice the amount of sun hours as Germany, which is the center of solar energy production in Europe.
He extended an open invitation to Nevada.
“We’re open for business and we want to partner with you,” Pickering said.
Why, again?
Oh yes, that's why.
There are good jobs and a more stable economy awaiting us. Instead of wasting even more money on bailouts for dirty energy, we can invest in our future by investing in renewable energy and the green economy. Renewable resources like solar are increasingly in demand, and the Obama Administration just opened another 285,000 acres of public land for solar development. So what are we waiting for?
Really, why are we waiting? The future won't wait for us forever.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Is Obama "Doomed"? (Or What the Pundits Won't Tell You.)
The media seem shocked, SHOCKED!!!, that Obama's campaign team aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off because of the polls, THE POLLS, THE POLLS!!! And they seem shocked, SHOCKED!!!, that Obama's campaign team aren't wailing and moaning and gnashing their teeth because Michael Moore is trying to speak for the entire Occupy/99% Movement (again), Ralph Nader is threatening Obama in the primary with an unnamed (still!) challenger, and Republicans are cynically decrying "division" while doing their best to divide and conquer through lying and smearing.
Many media pundits keep wondering just how "out of touch" President Obama is with America. Did they even pay attention to this?
Or this?
Are they really the ones out of touch with America?
This is why Obama has to take his message directly to the people. The TEA-nuts clearly aren't interested in cooperating, and the usual corporate media pundits clearly aren't interested in actually explaining WHY government doesn't seem to work right now. Americans are clearly angry, but they need to know why they are angry and how to resolve what's making them angry.
Yesterday, I was here.
Local OFA super-volunteer Teresa Crawford held yet another volunteer phone bank at her house. A few neighbors who also live in the local Sun City (55+ community) came to help. Even the Chair of the Clark County Democratic Party stopped by to cheer on the callers!
But wait, aren't seniors the ones most angry at Obama? And aren't long time Democrats threatening to withhold support from Obama? And isn't "The Left" falling apart because of conflict and strife over Obama?
Not really. What happens on cable "news" isn't always what happens in the real world.
Here in the real world, local OFA volunteers were expressing frustration over the G-O-TEA hijacking of Congress and lack of Republican ideas for job creation, even as they're thwarting President Obama's actual plan for job creation.
Oh, and they were also happy about lower cost prescription drugs and new, free preventive care in Medicare, thanks to "ObamaCare" (aka the Affordable Care Act). Yes, believe it or not, many local seniors here are liking the Affordable Care Act as they learn more about how it strengthens and improves Medicare coverage.
But enough of that, back to the calls. As we were making calls, I noticed the vast majority of the Democrats picking up the phone (we were working from a list of registered Democrats in Henderson and Boulder City) were more than willing to attend the caucus on January 21, and were interested in volunteering with OFA as well. Does that sound like "apathy" or "enthusiasm gap" to you? It certainly doesn't to me.
Yes, yes, I know. This is just a bunch of "worthless anecdotal evidence" that flies in the face of all the true "conventional wisdom" spouted on TV talk shows and argued over on other blogs.
But you know what? I think this is more than that. This is a glimpse into what's really going on with OFA, and what most pundits are truly missing. While the pundits keep debating what really matters in the Republican debates and how Democrats supposedly feel about President Obama, OFA volunteers keep humming along and doing the work that's needed to reelect Obama. The campaign probably doesn't feel as "sexy" to the media as it did four years ago, but that isn't stopping the lifeblood of the campaign.
Of course, the attitude of these volunteers doesn't totally reflect the mood of the country. As I said above, folks are angry because of the state of the economy and the ever widening gap between the rich & powerful and everyone else. However in talking with the actual people here in my neighborhood, including the ones who don't have any part in OFA, I sense something totally different from the knee-jerk anti-Obama sentiment that many in the media think is prevalent among all voters. And I sense that as Obama continues to pound his more economic populist message, it may really be working in that it's making folks think more about what's really causing all the problems on Capitol Hill.
So is everything all right? No, I'm not saying that. However, I believe it's far too early for anyone in the media to declare Obama "doomed".
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Legislature... Again
In case you missed it, Judge Russell directed the special masters to tweak with some of the legislative districts in Clark County before granting his final approval to the new redistricting maps. And while the Congressional map is untouched and no district east of The 15 or north of the Clark County line is affected, the potential balance of power in Carson City is destined to shift even more if the Nevada Supreme Court approves of this set of maps.
So what changes from the previous Assembly and Senate maps? Let me explain.
And let me start with the Assembly. Here are the districts that change:
AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%
New Race Rating: Tossup, same as previous
AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop-D)
Spring Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%
New Race Rating: Tossup, Previous Race Rating: Safe Democratic
AD 9 (Open)
Southwest Vegas: Summerlin South, Rhodes Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, Previous Race Rating: Tossup
AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 60%
McCain (R) 38%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 57%
Sharron Angle (R) 38%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 50%
Brian Sandoval (R) 46%
New Race Rating: Safe Democratic, Previous Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin, Northwest
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%
New Race Rating: Tossup, same as previous
So Republican John Hambrick remains vulnerable, but Democrat Marcus Conkin becomes more vulnerable as fellow Democrat Marilyn Dondero Loop now joins the "Endangered Legislators' Club". However not all the changes are bad for Assembly Democrats, since AD 9 flips from a tough Northwest Vegas Tossup district to an easier Southwest Vegas pickup opportunity. And while William Horne wasn't in too much danger previously, his new district virtually assures his political career in Carson City continues.
So what about the Senate? Here's what changes there:
SD 6 (Incumbent: Allison Copening-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin, Northwest
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 51%
Rory Reid (D) 45%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, same as previous
SD 8 (Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin/Spring Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 54%
Rory Reid (D) 42%
New Race Rating: Tossup, Previous Race Rating: Leans Republican
SD 9 (Incumbent: Elizabeth Halseth-R)
Southwest Vegas-Summerlin South, Rhodes Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, same as previous
Here, Democrats need not worry too much. SD 6 and SD 9 are slightly weakened, but I still have a hard time seeing Republicans being able to keep 9. And they will probably need "the perfect storm" to pick up 6. And in the process of weakening those 2 seats, SD 8 becomes a better pickup opportunity for Democrats. Republicans should really be careful what they wish for.
Overall, Republicans don't really gain any competitive advantage with the new Legislature maps. But nonetheless, their target strategies will have to change in the west end of Vegas. Marilyn Dondero Loop and Marcus Conklin are much more vulnerable, while the AD 9 open seat and William Horne are not. And SD 6 becomes a bit more approachable, but in turn SD 8 is more threatened.
We'll have to see how the Nevada Supremes rule on this, but so far it looks like we'll be in for some wild rides in 2012 and 2014.
So what changes from the previous Assembly and Senate maps? Let me explain.
And let me start with the Assembly. Here are the districts that change:
AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%
New Race Rating: Tossup, same as previous
AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop-D)
Spring Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%
New Race Rating: Tossup, Previous Race Rating: Safe Democratic
AD 9 (Open)
Southwest Vegas: Summerlin South, Rhodes Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, Previous Race Rating: Tossup
AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 60%
McCain (R) 38%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 57%
Sharron Angle (R) 38%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 50%
Brian Sandoval (R) 46%
New Race Rating: Safe Democratic, Previous Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin, Northwest
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%
New Race Rating: Tossup, same as previous
So Republican John Hambrick remains vulnerable, but Democrat Marcus Conkin becomes more vulnerable as fellow Democrat Marilyn Dondero Loop now joins the "Endangered Legislators' Club". However not all the changes are bad for Assembly Democrats, since AD 9 flips from a tough Northwest Vegas Tossup district to an easier Southwest Vegas pickup opportunity. And while William Horne wasn't in too much danger previously, his new district virtually assures his political career in Carson City continues.
So what about the Senate? Here's what changes there:
SD 6 (Incumbent: Allison Copening-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin, Northwest
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 51%
Rory Reid (D) 45%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, same as previous
SD 8 (Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin/Spring Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 54%
Rory Reid (D) 42%
New Race Rating: Tossup, Previous Race Rating: Leans Republican
SD 9 (Incumbent: Elizabeth Halseth-R)
Southwest Vegas-Summerlin South, Rhodes Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
New Race Rating: Leans Democratic, same as previous
Here, Democrats need not worry too much. SD 6 and SD 9 are slightly weakened, but I still have a hard time seeing Republicans being able to keep 9. And they will probably need "the perfect storm" to pick up 6. And in the process of weakening those 2 seats, SD 8 becomes a better pickup opportunity for Democrats. Republicans should really be careful what they wish for.
Overall, Republicans don't really gain any competitive advantage with the new Legislature maps. But nonetheless, their target strategies will have to change in the west end of Vegas. Marilyn Dondero Loop and Marcus Conklin are much more vulnerable, while the AD 9 open seat and William Horne are not. And SD 6 becomes a bit more approachable, but in turn SD 8 is more threatened.
We'll have to see how the Nevada Supremes rule on this, but so far it looks like we'll be in for some wild rides in 2012 and 2014.
Friday, October 28, 2011
NV-03: Another Democrat Running Against Heck?
Until very recently, all the speculation about NV-03 has centered around John Oceguera challenging Joe Heck... But is Oceguera about to get a primary challenge? And one that's NOT coming from the left?
Honestly, I'm still trying to make sense of this. Last week, James Haning filed to run for Congress. And judging by his Henderson address, it looks like he's running in the new NV-03 that was just approved by Judge Russell yesterday. And make a note of the (not so) new partisan flavor of NV-03, as that may come in handy later to explain what's happening.
So who is James Haning? Honestly, I'm still trying to figure that out. Apparently, he offers "how to kits" for home based marketing. And he's behind (the now defunct?) "Luxurian Resorts International". And he was President & CEO of a natural health foods business near Sacramento. And he was a real estate financier in Palm Springs?
WTF??!! Seriously... WTF?
It seems like Haning came to Southern Nevada relatively recently, and it's unclear (at best) what his private sector background really is. But to make this strange and sordid tale even stranger, it seems like he may be running in the wrong party.
While we've heard quite a bit from some progressives that want more primary challenges from the left, it doesn't look like that's what Haning is doing. Rather, he's saying he wants to repeal health care reform and Wall Street reform. And his Issues page has approving references to "flat tax" myths and Arizona SB 1070 style draconian anti-immigrant codes. So before Haning starts pleading to Hugh Jackson that he's the one true "bold progressive", I just wanted to put this out before it possibly gets edited out at other sites.
So what's going on here? Is James Haning just trying to position himself as "moderate" or "conservative" for the general election? (Remember, the district has about 3% more Democrats than Republicans and went 50-45 Reid-Angle last fall.) Is he feeling confident about defeating Oceguera in the primary? May he try running to Oceguera's left soon if running to the right doesn't work? And how is Joe Heck's campaign team taking this curious development in the race?
Lordy knows we have our share of "political grifters" here in Nevada. Some even vacillate between the Republican and Democratic parties in desperate ploys to be elected to something, anything!, just as long as they're (again) on the ballot. Is James Haning one of them? I honestly can't say yet. I'm still awaiting more evidence to point either way. But without a doubt, the NV-03 race just became even more interesting.
Honestly, I'm still trying to make sense of this. Last week, James Haning filed to run for Congress. And judging by his Henderson address, it looks like he's running in the new NV-03 that was just approved by Judge Russell yesterday. And make a note of the (not so) new partisan flavor of NV-03, as that may come in handy later to explain what's happening.
So who is James Haning? Honestly, I'm still trying to figure that out. Apparently, he offers "how to kits" for home based marketing. And he's behind (the now defunct?) "Luxurian Resorts International". And he was President & CEO of a natural health foods business near Sacramento. And he was a real estate financier in Palm Springs?
WTF??!! Seriously... WTF?
It seems like Haning came to Southern Nevada relatively recently, and it's unclear (at best) what his private sector background really is. But to make this strange and sordid tale even stranger, it seems like he may be running in the wrong party.
While we've heard quite a bit from some progressives that want more primary challenges from the left, it doesn't look like that's what Haning is doing. Rather, he's saying he wants to repeal health care reform and Wall Street reform. And his Issues page has approving references to "flat tax" myths and Arizona SB 1070 style draconian anti-immigrant codes. So before Haning starts pleading to Hugh Jackson that he's the one true "bold progressive", I just wanted to put this out before it possibly gets edited out at other sites.
So what's going on here? Is James Haning just trying to position himself as "moderate" or "conservative" for the general election? (Remember, the district has about 3% more Democrats than Republicans and went 50-45 Reid-Angle last fall.) Is he feeling confident about defeating Oceguera in the primary? May he try running to Oceguera's left soon if running to the right doesn't work? And how is Joe Heck's campaign team taking this curious development in the race?
Lordy knows we have our share of "political grifters" here in Nevada. Some even vacillate between the Republican and Democratic parties in desperate ploys to be elected to something, anything!, just as long as they're (again) on the ballot. Is James Haning one of them? I honestly can't say yet. I'm still awaiting more evidence to point either way. But without a doubt, the NV-03 race just became even more interesting.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Redistricting Update: NV-0X No More... & NVLeg Almost Settled
Southern Nevada’s plethora of Democratic congressional candidates no longer have an excuse to delay announcing which district they will run for next year.
Carson District Judge James T. Russell today approved new district maps drawn by his three court masters after weeks of public hearings and number crunching.
Neither Republicans nor Democrats voiced an objection to the maps that reject the GOP argument that Hispanic voters were entitled to a majority-minority district under the Voting Rights Act.
Nice to see that's settled... But it's not all over yet.
Lawyers for both Republicans and Democrats said they need to review changes that Russell made to the Senate districts drawn by the masters before deciding whether to appeal to the Nevada Supreme Court.
Republicans had objected to the way the masters drew the Senate districts, arguing they gave an unfair advantage to Democrats in three Southern Nevada districts.
Russell rejected that argument, but said state Sen. Barbara Cegavaske’s district was too irregularly shaped to comply with the law. His changes had little impact on the partisan registration of the three districts Republicans objected to.
Well, SD 8 under the original map did look weird. As long as no one tries to manipulate this process to gerrymander for the Republicans, we should be OK. Perhaps since Judge Russell has already come under fire for rigging the NV-02 special election earlier this year, he'll mind his manners now. It seems like Russell is only making minor changes with the Summerlin area Senate Districts, so hopefully the Nevada Supremes can sort it all out in a fair manner.
But in the mean time, it's good to know the maps are starting to be set in stone now. It's time for the Nevada GOP to give up its fantasies of total gerrymander.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Redistricting Nevada: How the Special Masters Redid the Assembly
Last week, we had a chance to see what's at stake under the new Senate map proposed by Judge Russell's special masters. Now, it's the Assembly's turn as we examine how the political state of play changes there.
This morning, we discussed why rural Republicans in particular are screaming bloody murder over this map. Long story short, they lose more power. And while we saw them fume mostly over the Senate map, the Assembly map doesn't look all that great for them either.
Safe Republican Seats:
AD 23 (Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury)
AD 32 (Incumbent: Ira Hansen)
AD 33 (Incumbent: John Ellison)
AD 36 (Incumbent: Ed Goedhart)
AD 38 (Incumbent: Tom Grady)
AD 39 (Incumbent: Kelly Kite)
AD 40 (Incumbent: Pete Livermore)
Safe Democratic Seats:
AD 1 (Incumbent: Marilyn Kirkpatrick)
AD 3 (Incumbent: Peggy Pierce)
AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop)
AD 6 (Incumbent: Harvey Munford)
AD 7 (Incumbent: Dina Neal)
AD 8 (Incumbent: Jason Frierson)
AD 10 (Incumbent: Joe Hogan)
AD 11 (Incumbent: Olivia Diaz)
AD 14 (Incumbent: Maggie Carlton)
AD 15 (Incumbent: Elliot Anderson)
AD 16 (Open)
AD 17 (Incumbent: Kelvin Atkinson)
AD 18 (Incumbent: Richard Carrillo)
AD 20 (Open)
AD 24 (Incumbent: David Bobzien)
AD 27 (Incumbent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson)
AD 28 (Incumbent: Lucy Flores)
AD 30 (Incumbent: Debbie Smith)
AD 42 (Incumbent: Irene Bustamante Adams)
As you can see above, Democrats already start off with an overwhelming 19-7 advantage in safe seats! Democrats only need to win 3 of the below competitive districts to keep the majority, 7 seats to maintain their current 26-16 advantage, or 9 seats to get back to the 28-14 veto proof supermajority they briefly enjoyed in 2009.
So how can Republicans stop them? It's no easy task, as we're about to see below.
Clark County
AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
53% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
49% Harry Reid (D)
47% Sharron Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
56% Brian Sandoval (R)
41% Rory Reid (D)
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 4 (Incumbent: Richard McArthur-R)
Las Vegas- Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 9 (Open)
Las Vegas-Northwest/Centennial Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 12 (Incumbent: James Ohrenschall-D)
Sunrise Manor, East Las Vegas, Henderson-Lake Las Vegas
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 13 (Incumbent: Scott Hammond-R)
Las Vegas-Centennial Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 19 (Incumbents: Crescent Hardy-R and Steven Brooks-D)
Mesquite, Sunrise Manor, Henderson-Old Henderson
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Sherwood-R)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Green Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 22 (Incumbent: Lynn Stewart-R)
Henderson-Green Valley Ranch/MacDonald Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 29 (Incumbent: April Mastroluca-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Old Henderson
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 35 (Open)
Southwest Vegas/Southern Highlands
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 41 (Incumbent: Paul Aizley-D)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Seven Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
Washoe County
AD 25 (Incumbent: Pat Hickey-R)
Reno-West Reno
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 26 (Incumbent: Randy Kirner-R)
Hidden Valley, Incline Village
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 31 (Incumbent: Skip Daly-D)
Sparks-Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%
Race Rating: Tossup
So here I count 5 Lean (R) districts, 6 Tossup districts, and 5 Lean (D) districts. When the leaners are included, Democrats have a 24-12 advantage... Oh wait, that makes a majority! No wonder why Republicans are pissed. They have to win all their safe seats, all their leaners, all the tossups, AND steal at least 4 of the 5 Dem leaning seats to get a majority!
Now to be fair, not everything is coming up roses for the Dems, either. While their path to majority is incredibly easy here, their path back to 2/3 supermajority gets a little tougher. All of their safe seats and all of their leaners only amount to 24 total seats, so they have to win at least 4 of the 6 tossup seats to reach the magic number 28... And at least 3 of those will be incumbent Democrats facing tougher districts with some unfamiliar new constituents (April Mastroluca and Marcus Conklin down south, Skip Daly up north), while incumbent Democrat Steven Brooks and incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy may be forced into battle royale against each other in the new AD 19 where both of them apparently live.
But all in all, Republicans seem to have more to lose under this map, so we can better understand why they're fighting like hell to stop this map from becoming the law of the land.
This morning, we discussed why rural Republicans in particular are screaming bloody murder over this map. Long story short, they lose more power. And while we saw them fume mostly over the Senate map, the Assembly map doesn't look all that great for them either.
Safe Republican Seats:
AD 23 (Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury)
AD 32 (Incumbent: Ira Hansen)
AD 33 (Incumbent: John Ellison)
AD 36 (Incumbent: Ed Goedhart)
AD 38 (Incumbent: Tom Grady)
AD 39 (Incumbent: Kelly Kite)
AD 40 (Incumbent: Pete Livermore)
Safe Democratic Seats:
AD 1 (Incumbent: Marilyn Kirkpatrick)
AD 3 (Incumbent: Peggy Pierce)
AD 5 (Incumbent: Marilyn Dondero Loop)
AD 6 (Incumbent: Harvey Munford)
AD 7 (Incumbent: Dina Neal)
AD 8 (Incumbent: Jason Frierson)
AD 10 (Incumbent: Joe Hogan)
AD 11 (Incumbent: Olivia Diaz)
AD 14 (Incumbent: Maggie Carlton)
AD 15 (Incumbent: Elliot Anderson)
AD 16 (Open)
AD 17 (Incumbent: Kelvin Atkinson)
AD 18 (Incumbent: Richard Carrillo)
AD 20 (Open)
AD 24 (Incumbent: David Bobzien)
AD 27 (Incumbent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson)
AD 28 (Incumbent: Lucy Flores)
AD 30 (Incumbent: Debbie Smith)
AD 42 (Incumbent: Irene Bustamante Adams)
As you can see above, Democrats already start off with an overwhelming 19-7 advantage in safe seats! Democrats only need to win 3 of the below competitive districts to keep the majority, 7 seats to maintain their current 26-16 advantage, or 9 seats to get back to the 28-14 veto proof supermajority they briefly enjoyed in 2009.
So how can Republicans stop them? It's no easy task, as we're about to see below.
Clark County
AD 2 (Incumbent: John Hambrick-R)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
53% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
49% Harry Reid (D)
47% Sharron Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
56% Brian Sandoval (R)
41% Rory Reid (D)
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 4 (Incumbent: Richard McArthur-R)
Las Vegas- Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 9 (Open)
Las Vegas-Northwest/Centennial Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 12 (Incumbent: James Ohrenschall-D)
Sunrise Manor, East Las Vegas, Henderson-Lake Las Vegas
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 13 (Incumbent: Scott Hammond-R)
Las Vegas-Centennial Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 19 (Incumbents: Crescent Hardy-R and Steven Brooks-D)
Mesquite, Sunrise Manor, Henderson-Old Henderson
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 21 (Incumbent: Mark Sherwood-R)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Green Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 22 (Incumbent: Lynn Stewart-R)
Henderson-Green Valley Ranch/MacDonald Ranch
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 29 (Incumbent: April Mastroluca-D)
Henderson-Green Valley/Old Henderson
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 34 (Incumbent: William Horne-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 35 (Open)
Southwest Vegas/Southern Highlands
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
AD 37 (Incumbent: Marcus Conklin-D)
Las Vegas-Summerlin
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 51%
Sharron Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%
Race Rating: Tossup
AD 41 (Incumbent: Paul Aizley-D)
Silverado Ranch, Henderson-Seven Hills
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 53%
Sharron Angle (R) 42%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%
Race Rating: Leans Democratic
Washoe County
AD 25 (Incumbent: Pat Hickey-R)
Reno-West Reno
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 26 (Incumbent: Randy Kirner-R)
Hidden Valley, Incline Village
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 45%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
AD 31 (Incumbent: Skip Daly-D)
Sparks-Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley
Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%
Race Rating: Tossup
So here I count 5 Lean (R) districts, 6 Tossup districts, and 5 Lean (D) districts. When the leaners are included, Democrats have a 24-12 advantage... Oh wait, that makes a majority! No wonder why Republicans are pissed. They have to win all their safe seats, all their leaners, all the tossups, AND steal at least 4 of the 5 Dem leaning seats to get a majority!
Now to be fair, not everything is coming up roses for the Dems, either. While their path to majority is incredibly easy here, their path back to 2/3 supermajority gets a little tougher. All of their safe seats and all of their leaners only amount to 24 total seats, so they have to win at least 4 of the 6 tossup seats to reach the magic number 28... And at least 3 of those will be incumbent Democrats facing tougher districts with some unfamiliar new constituents (April Mastroluca and Marcus Conklin down south, Skip Daly up north), while incumbent Democrat Steven Brooks and incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy may be forced into battle royale against each other in the new AD 19 where both of them apparently live.
But all in all, Republicans seem to have more to lose under this map, so we can better understand why they're fighting like hell to stop this map from becoming the law of the land.
It's the Population
Surprise, surprise, the new Legislature maps are being challenged. Of course, the Republicans are whining because the proposed maps don't gerrymander the GOP back into power. Yet among those Republicans, there are some former and current legislators throwing a fit for another (albeit just as ridiculous) reason.
Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is Goicoechea really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year.
[Face palm]
Oh, lordy. Oh yes, it's such an "injustice" to lump Elko and Ely into the same district as Indian Springs and Moapa! Oh, the horrors! (I'm obviously being sarcastic here, since the part of Clark County included in the new SD 19 is sparsely populated. None of North Las Vegas and very little of the City of Las Vegas [just Providence and Kyle Canyon] even touch it.)
So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.
For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.
This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes our changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.
To paraphrase James Carville's famous 1992 statement, "It's the population, stupid." And though rural legislators have long been able to maintain power in Carson City despite the rise of Vegas, time may soon be running out for them.
Rural lawmakers expressed dismay Tuesday with the latest redistricting maps that would add a big chunk of northern Clark County to the rural state Senate District 19.
While Washoe County would likely be represented by four state senators, the same number it currently has, rural Nevada would go from three representatives to two if not one.
“It dilutes the ‘cow counties,’ ” said Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka. (He’s a rancher, and therefore allowed to use the sometimes-pejorative vernacular for the state’s less-populated counties.)
“The rurals are entitled to be represented like any other minority.”
Huh? When did the Voting Rights Act ever elevate "population minorities" to the same legally protected status as racial minorities? Is Goicoechea really trying to claim that rural Nevada is "discriminated against" when it has the most subsidized government services of any of us? I dare Pete Goicoechea to go to West Las Vegas and talk with the residents who remember the "Mississippi of the West" days, when no African-Americans were allowed to even step in the front door of any Strip casinos! And I dare him to go to East Las Vegas and talk with the residents who are still enduring the anti-Latin@ xenophobia that his party's US Senate candidate tried to tap into to win last year.
[Face palm]
Eureka County objected to the Senate maps. Former Elko Assemblyman John Carpenter, who served 24 years in the Legislature, also lodged the same complaint, saying Elko County would also include parts of Clark County including west of North Las Vegas and Mount Charleston.
Carpenter said, “My greatest fear is that someday the northern rural counties, the cow counties, would be represented by a senator from Southern Nevada.”
Oh, lordy. Oh yes, it's such an "injustice" to lump Elko and Ely into the same district as Indian Springs and Moapa! Oh, the horrors! (I'm obviously being sarcastic here, since the part of Clark County included in the new SD 19 is sparsely populated. None of North Las Vegas and very little of the City of Las Vegas [just Providence and Kyle Canyon] even touch it.)
So what's the real objection here? Simple: Population. And Power.
For decades, rural Nevada, along with Washoe County, has had disproportionate power and control over state affairs. Even though Clark became the most populous county in the state in 1960, we still haven't yet seen Clark become all that much of a force in Carson City. Again, look at the distribution of state college funds, and the distribution of public safety funds, and the constant resistance to progressive tax reform despite growing support statewide.
This really looks to be "The Cow Counties' Last Stand". Deep down, they know that Nevada is changing. Not only is Nevada's population growing more diverse, but it's also becoming more urban as Greater Las Vegas continues to reinvent itself. As we talked about on Monday, the "Bonanza" vision of Nevada is fading as the state makes the transition from bucolic desert wonderland to dynamic urban destination. And as we make that transition, our attitudes our changing on issues like taxes, land use, environmental stewardship, civil rights, and the overall needs for government.
To paraphrase James Carville's famous 1992 statement, "It's the population, stupid." And though rural legislators have long been able to maintain power in Carson City despite the rise of Vegas, time may soon be running out for them.
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