You know what? We're quite fortunate to live in a swing state. We have a front row seat to the kind of campaigning that most Americans actually aren't seeing. It's quite exciting, really.
Well, maybe it's not that exciting for Nevada Republicans and "Tea Party, Inc." Their own poll shows bad news for them as the AFP "tea Party" bus is about to land in Las Vegas tomorrow. And even worse for them, Nevada Democrats are cranking up the field machine.
Here, take a look for yourself. While "tea partiers" were busy partying on their Koch funded tour bus, Nevada Democrats were busy working at their Henderson field office.
As we've discussed before, the Democratic field operation has been humming along nicely this year. Yet while Democrats have been registering new voters and persuading current voters, Nevada Republicans are busy getting a divorce. The big G-O-TEA poobahs know this, and that's why they're desperate to find another way to get an advantage.
That's why Dean Heller has to find ways to smear his opposition. That's why Joe Heck has really been in the hot seat lately. And that's why Mitt Romney is so worried about Nevada.
It's bad enough that they're such flawed candidates who have trouble even exciting their own G-O-TEA base. It's even worse that they don't have good records to run on. And now, what really frightens them is that they don't actually have the troops on the ground necessary to win.
Any good campaign consultant will stress the importance of field. That's why Nevada Democrats have invested so much in it. And that's why they're always busy recruiting more volunteers to go to the office. And that's why those volunteers get busy making calls as soon as they walk in. Field matters. And even with "Tea Party, Inc." spending so many millions of dollars on slimy TV ads, they still can't win if they're getting out-worked in the field. That's "the dirty little secret" of campaigning that's often forgotten, especially by many in the media.
We've already received quite a bit of attention from the national media lately. They're trying to figure out what "the state of the race" looks like here in Nevada. If they really want to figure it out, then all they need to do is look at the field.
The RNC, represented at the Nugget and watching the Paul folks dominate similar conventions across the country, would prefer an uneventful (read: choreographed) national convention where Paul delegates don’t boo Mitt Romney as he accepts the nomination or start a resolution revolution from the floor. Similarly, they were hoping for a relatively sedate Nevada Republican Party event this weekend, with the Paul folks leaving happy and the Romney contingent fairly represented on the national delegate slate (3 of 25!).
Instead what transpired Saturday was a microcosm of the war for the soul of the Republican Party, with orange-capped Romney captains patrolling the convention floor, motivated by a desire to keep the sheep in line, while more colorfully dressed Paul delegates destabilized the convention, animated by either a love of liberty or a love of black helicopters (hard to tell percentages.).
[...]
Considering how close the election is foretold to be here and in the country, though, what the Paul folks do come November is critical to Romney’s fortunes. And that is the delicate waltz the Romney National Committee is confronted with, one that it executed with two left feet with two letters threatening not to seat the entire Nevada delegation if the Paul folks didn’t play ball. (Net impact: Zero.)
The Paul folks want to “change the party from within,” as I heard so many of them say – while Team Romney and its RNC allies want to do what Al Davis always urged: Just win, baby.
It is the bloodless mind of the GOP vs. the passionate heart that wants to beat loudly in Tampa. And over at Obama for America, they are smiling that despite the economy and the president’s numbers, knowing that at this rate, the Republicans might just beat themselves.
This is the dilemma that Romney's campaign and the RNC are facing, and the dilemma that they don't want the media to focus on. After all, it's quite embarrassing. For someone who's supposed to be "the presumptive Republican nominee", Romney still can't lock down his own base.
Now yes, we've become used to DC pundits telling us that Republicans are coalescing behind Romney and are enthusiastic about beating Obama. Yet while the Republican base does vehemently hate President Obama, and while much of that base has drifted to Romney in the last month, the view inside the GOP isn't really as rosy and peachy as those DC pundits think.
I definitely don't think it's an accident that President Obama has been on the rebound here in Nevada. However, there's more to this story than just the polls. Really, OFA has been active in the field since last summer. And Nevada Democrats are preparing to ramp up the field campaign for the entire ticket once the primary is over. When local pundits like Jon Ralston describe the Democratic Party's ground game as a "well oiled machine", they mean it. Just talk to Harry Reid about it.
Still, Democrats are not taking this election for granted. That's why we're seeing more field activity along with more media ad buys. After all, Barack Obama is not the only Democrat on our ballot. We also have an(other) US Senate race and two key US House races that may tip the balance of power on Capitol Hill. And on top of that, there's even more action down the ballot. And since elections are still won or lost in the field, that's where Democrats are doubling down.
And this is why so many Nevada Republican insiders are panicking. As this past weekend's display of unbridled insanity shows, the rank and file have still not coalesced behind Romney. Even if most of them eventually do by the summer, that's time and energy wasted on "the base" that should otherwise be spent corraling "the base" into working the field.
And even worse, Romney couldn't even count all the folks in John Ascuaga's Nugget this past weekend as his base! Even now, the bulk of Ron Paul's supporters refuse to endorse Romney... Even in the general election. And now that some of Ron Paul's biggest supporters are taking control of the Nevada Republican Party, big donors are threatening to bolt. And while that likely means money that would have gone to the Nevada GOP is instead being directed to pro-Romney SuperPACs, that still means money that can't be invested in the kind of GOTV (or "get out the vote") operation that Romney, along with down ballot GOP candidates, will need to win.
And since Ron Paul's campaign is still hellbent on causing even more trouble on the road to Tampa, it's denying Romney the chance to fully unite the base and redirect them from the primary fight to the general election. This is why Romney is in more trouble than some of the national polls suggest. With OFA building a strong field operation here in Nevada and throughout the country, Romney simply has no ground game to competently compete. And Ron Paul supporters are intent on keeping it that way.
Earlier this week on MSNBC, Rachel Maddow noted the still unfolding drama in the G-O-TEA primary. Even though all the rest of us consider it over and done for Mittens, Ron Paul's loyal band of followers still refuses to give up. And believe it or not, they're causing the Romney campaign more headaches than the DC pundits had originally expected.
And the drama isn't limited to the Midwest. In fact, there's quite a bit of that right here in Nevada! Remember that lovely legal, organizational, and "small d democratic" EPIC FAIL that was the Nevada Republican Caucus?
Ron Paul's Nevada supporters haven't. And apparently, they're now out for revenge.
I recently received an E-mail from a disaffected Ron Paul supporter that Nevada Paul Campaign Chair Carl Bunce recently sent out to his supporters. The long and the short of it is that it’s a battle plan which encourages Paul folks to lie to pollsters to “fool” the Romney campaign, in order to make it easier to shock-’n'-awe their way to a Ron Paul National Convention slate. It’s full of paranoia about information control (Hah! Fail!) and secrecy, with a nice dab of Personality Cult for Doctor Paul.
Well, secret’s out, you dishonest goofballs. Everyone knows your game. [...]
Don’t these people realize that if they had a winning message, they wouldn’t have the need for all the secrecy? Don’t they see what hypocrites they look like when they cry about dishonesty and lack of transparency in government? And remember, this isn’t just some independent Paul supporter. This IS the Ron Paul campaign, and Ron Paul himself is directly responsible for it. Either the Congressman is blind to these types of shenanigans, or he endorses it. Which is it, Good Doctor? Will you renounce this assault on actual liberty being perpetuated in your name? There’s certainly nothing “libertarian” about any of this.
Nevada Republicans were promised by their Central Committee that their caucus votes would be proportionally binding all the way through the first round of voting at the national convention. I have to wonder – if these Paul people wind up going to the national convention, will they honor that promise? Or will they just openly betray the Nevadans they claim to want to represent?
Just remember this – people willing to lie, cheat, or steal in order to get power will lie, cheat and steal once they’re in power. Even if you find Paul’s platform compelling, after this there’s no way you could trust he’d follow through with any of it.
Now here's the thing: This was never really a well kept secret. In fact, this was NOT a secret at all. Back in February, Rachel Maddow actually interviewed Ron Paul campaign senior advisor Doug Wead and had him explain on national TV what their campaign is doing.
The only thing that surprises me about this is that it took Nevada GOP insiders and Mitt Romney operatives this long to realize what's been happening under their noses all along. So not only does Mitt Romney's campaign have to worry about loose cannons raising hell instead of money for the Nevada Republican Party, but they now risk a major embarrassment next month in Sparks if Ron Paul operatives actually succeed in hijacking the convention. Remember, they already took over the Clark County Republican Party at its convention last month. Is the state party next (again)? And will Nevada's Republican National Convention delegation be delivering an unwelcome surprise to Tampa this summer?
We'll have to see how much more they can milk "TEH CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" cow, because that's all they have left... Well, that and Karl Rove's Super PAC money. And certainly, Rove's millions will get them somewhere. However, can "air raids" of TV ads really match what Nevada Democrats have on the ground? I doubt it. Sure, TV ads play a role in determining elections, but even Jon Ralston had to admit that the ground game is the ultimate determining factor.
Another scenario is possible, though, one that’s not as unlikely now as it was 24 hours ago – and for the Romney campaign, it’s the doomsday scenario. The key here is that Santorum didn’t just beat Romney in Mississippi and Alabama – he also knocked off Newt Gingrich, who has pitched himself as the South’s candidate. On the heels of his Oklahoma and Tennessee wins on Super Tuesday (and his Ohio near-miss), Santorum can now make a strong case for anti-Romney conservatives to ditch Gingrich once and for all and rally around him. This would give Santorum the one-on-one race with Romney that he’s craved, and how it would turn out is the great unknown.
Starting in the early days of this campaign, polls have shown potentially serious trouble for Romney if the conservative base ever united behind a single candidate. On a few occasions, like with Rick Perry’s late August surge or Gingrich’s in December, a single candidate actually managed to play this role, opening giant leads in national and key early state surveys and attaining polling heights that Romney has still yet to reach. But those candidates were horribly deficient and their surges were short-lived.
Santorum, though, is demonstrating more staying power — and Gingrich has been getting in his way. Without the former speaker in the race, the results wouldn’t have been close last night, nor would they have been in Tennessee and Oklahoma last week. And Santorum probably would have won Ohio, scored a clear win in Iowa and probably Georgia, and maybe pulled off South Carolina, and perhaps even Florida.
We may be arriving at the moment Romney and his campaign have feared for the entire campaign, when they can no longer benefit from a split conservative vote. Gingrich gave no hint in his speech last night that he’ll leave the race anytime soon. But he may be eliminated organically, if conservatives conclude that he’s exhausted his viability and that they’re better off lining up with Santorum. It might not matter if Gingrich presses ahead; if his support evaporates, Santorum will get his one-on-one race anyway.
So far, MSNBC is describing Illinois as "too early to call". This isn't a good sign for Mitt Romney. Some of the final pre-election polls suggested a blowout win for Romney, so anything less than that will probably set him back at least somewhat. And if somehow Mittens manages to bomb everywhere except Greater Chicago-land, it will just confirm his continued woes with the "tea party" base that just can't warm up to the guy who's supposed to be their "inevitable nominee".
Now, we just have to wait for this map to fill up so we can catch a first glimpse of the next stage of the G-O-TEA circus clown show.
5:28 PM-
And we have the first results. And interestingly enough, they're from The Windy City itself... Or at least somewhere in Cook County (which is home to Chicago and its most immediate suburbs), along with Lake County (home to wealthy Chicago suburbs). So far, Mitt Romney is comfortably ahead 54-29 over Rick Santorum. But remember, Chicago-land is where Mittens is expected to run up the score. We just have to wait and see what happens down state.
5:40 PM-
Some news outlets are now calling Illinois for Romney. It's looking likely he'll win tonight, as nearly everyone expected, but now we're all wondering how big (or small) the margin is. How well (or poorly) Romney wins will determine the media spin later tonight, as well as whether we'll hear louder calls for Santorum to drop out (and let Romney wrap up the nomination) or for Newt Gingrich to drop out (so Santorum can coalesce the hard-core teabagger opposition to Romney and deny him the nomination).
It's still quite possible that Romney can't ultimately get the 1,144 delegates needed to officially earn the GOP nomination. Now, it's just a matter of whether Mittens can push everyone else out soon... Or if everyone else pushes him out come Tampa.
5:50 PM-
Perhaps Team Mittens shouldn't pop out too much champagne tonight. So far in looking at the exit polls, I'm sensing Romney only wins Illinois tonight by about 6-8%. Yes, a win is a win is a win. And yes, Mittens will get the most delegates regardless (thanks to Santorum's campaign screwing up on delegate selection again). But again, he's only barely winning a state he was expected to coast to victory in not that long ago. And if he has to spend many millions of dollars just to squeak past a campaign so incompetent it's bleeding delegates all over the place, there's a serious problem in Republican-Land.
6:10 PM-
Funny enough, Rachel Maddow is explaining on MSNBC how Mittens may not be all that secure in his "delegate plan". Apparently, Illinois' GOP primary ballot is so damned long and complicated (in having folks vote for Presidential preference AND delegates, but also allowing them to do so separately) that Santorum, Gingrich, and/or Ron Paul may actually be able to "win" votes intended for Romney if voters don't vote for Romney delegates. YIKES!
But wait, there's more! Looking at the latest results, it looks like Romney is doing well in the closest-in Chicago-Land counties, as expected, but Santorum is starting to post leads in a few exurban Chicago area counties. Ruh-roh. And as many Romney boosters feared, Santorum is mostly cleaning up downstate.
And looking at the exit polls, we can see that Santorum actually WON late breaking voters. And yes, Santorum also won all those "conservative white working class" and "tea party" aligned demographic groups that Romney continues to struggle with. Oh yes, this contest will go on. Mittens can't celebrate "victory" just yet.
If his campaign can’t be defined by his stance on either contraception or unemployment, what’s the rationale for Santorum’s marathon and increasingly long-shot candidacy? Cheering on a Christian theocracy, and then quickly backpedaling, is as close as I can get. Dennis Terry’s hysterical remarks should be chilling to anyone who values religious freedom, on the right or left (watch it here). Watching Santorum standing and clapping for the bigot made it more clear than ever that he can never lead this nation. The fact that he later backtracked and (sort of) said he disagreed with Terry’s remarks doesn’t erase the fact that when he heard them, he stood and clapped like all the other good Christians. This is the company Santorum keeps.
It’s not all good news. The run-up to Illinois demonstrated surprising cracks in Romney’s campaign — typically considered the most solid and competent — in the long primary. Reports over the suggested revealed Romney’s campaign in Illinois was as disorganized as Santorum’s — not a good sign for an operation that will need to make a quick pivot to the general election against President Obama’s incredibly efficient campaign. Romney also vastly outspent his chief rival and conducted ran a very negative campaign, the kind of thing that doesn’t do much for his Republican enthusiasm problem.
And so far, that's the big takeaway for me tonight.
Oh yes, and there's this takeaway from somewhere closer to home. Jim Rogers blogged this yesterday.
I am a liberal. I make no excuses for that, nor do I believe I am obligated to defend my position. I do not believe that I am always right. I also have the greatest respect for the leading conservatives in this country. Agree with them or not, their philosophies have been sound, constructive and productive for the last 40 years I have followed their endeavors.
The issue is not the liberal view versus the conservative view. The issue is how the lunatic and intellectually bankrupt group that calls itself conservatives has been able to kidnap and hold for ransom the Republican Party and totally destroy its heritage of sound and logical thinking.
The political successes of intellectually bankrupt people like Sharron Angle and Sarah Palin should scare all of you. Fortunately neither one of these idiots, who has no understanding of conservatism, does not understand any of this country’s problems, and certainly has no capacity to solve those problems, has done nothing more than take this nation’s focus away from supporting people in their own party who could keep this country going forward.
And IMHO he's 100% correct! As we've talked about before, today's Republican Party is becoming increasingly enamored with "tea party" radicals like Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron over pragmatic center-right problem solvers like Kenny Guinn and Bill Raggio. As we may see later tonight, Nevada Republicans continue to grapple with this frightening reality.
However, we're also seeing this play out on the national stage. Even if Mitt Romney somehow manages to sew up the nomination soon, he'll have to do so by foresaking whatever shred of moderation he once embraced to instead try to "out-teabagger" the official "tea party" approved candidates. Romney continues to alienate women, minorities, and just about every swing voter demographic around with his support of the extreme "tea party" agenda. So is Mittens really "winning"?
So when you consider his built-in advantages, the money he poured into the state, the attacks he leveled against Santorum, and the dreadful debate performance Santorum turned in last week, Romney’s three-point margin seems a lot less impressive. This was not like Florida, where Romney utterly decimated his chief foe (Newt Gingrich) and posted a lopsided victory. This was a must-win state that Romney threw everything he had at… and managed to win by just three points – apparently with a big boost from early voters, many of whom cast their ballots before Santorum surged into contention.
This suggests that Romney may not get much of a bounce out Michigan – and that he could find himself in big trouble again one week from now on Super Tuesday. The biggest state to vote that day is Ohio, a big Midwest state culturally and demographically similar to Michigan. The latest poll in the Buckeye State, released early on Tuesday, gives Santorum an 11-point lead over Romney, 37 to 26 percent. Maybe those numbers will tighten in the wake of Michigan, but Romney is going to have to fight for it.
This is probably why Romney, Santorum, and their G-O-TEA buddies in Congress have shifted back to "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy. What's really funny with this is that talk of probing women's private parts, denying civil rights to LGBTQ Americans, dehumanizing Latin@ Americans simply because of their family heritage, and attacking Muslims for just being Muslim is really turning off voters. No, really. No, really.
The numbers in the North are fascinating. Berkley and Heller are in a dead heat in Washoe County, and the president’s numbers (56-40) are amazingly strong there. So, is the poll just wrong or is something happening here? Any poll can miss the mark, but folks should not miss what is happening in Washoe, as evidenced by Obama’s ’08 victory there and Reid’s ’10 win. Yes, no analogy is perfect, especially one that might involve Sharron Angle. But Washoe is turning bluer and bluer — Jill Derby and Heller were competitive there twice in congressional races — and even independents there seem more liberal than anywhere else in the state. That could be an ominous harbinger for the GOP.
Strangely enough, that POS poll had Obama and Shelley Berkley underperforming in Clark County while overperforming in Washoe County. Sorry, but I call BS on POS. I honestly do think they had sampling problems this time, so maybe the entire poll has to be thrown out. But even when that's done and we look at recent election results in Washoe County, Ralston is correct that Washoe seems to be trending Democratic. And yes, I also think he's right about independents there being turned off by the radical right G-O-TEA crazy. So when the likes of Romney and Santorum continue to double down on "CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy and economic royalist crap that would make Ebenezer Scrooge blush, Republicans may very well face serious problems in the Reno area this fall. And if that happens, then it's quite likely Nevada will take quite the deep blue hue come this November.
Cheese, louise. Just when we couldn't get enough political drama today, we get three more G-O-TEA contests to digest. Check here for updates on the vote counts and delegate counts. Apparently, tonight may finally be "Frothy" Ricky Santorum's night. After he nearly got Iowa robbed from him, Santorum may finally get some real momentum if he wins the Minnesota Caucus, wins the Missouri Primary (which may do nothing for his delegate count, as it's only a "beauty contest", but at least it can give him bragging rights), and at least finishes a strong second in Colorado (preferably well enough to keep Mitt Romney well under 50%).
As usual, I'll be here to liveblog all the craziness here with you. And of course, we'll debunk whatever stupid media spin occurs and fact check any fact-free rants made by the G-O-TEA candidates in their "victory speeches" later tonight.
6:10 PM-
Well, at least Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri will have a ridiculously easy "credibility bar" to pass tonight... Or will they? Because all these states had problems with the new RNC primary/caucus rules, none of the contests tonight will actually (at least directly) determine delegate allocation. Yikes. But before we gloat too much about this, just look at what happened to Nevada Republicans. And now, they want the state to bail them out! And of course, this also means they want "we the people/taxpayers" to bail them out! And I thought Nevada Republicans were against "socialism"?
6:25 PM-
So far in early returns, "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is running away with Minnesota and Missouri. Can Mittens catch up? And again, does it really matter? With exactly 0 delegates actually at stake tonight, Willard Romney's campaign will certainly try to spin tonight's results as "meaningless". Will Ricky be able to convince the media pundits to think otherwise?
6:45 PM-
NBC News just projected a Santorum win in Missouri. Congrats, "Frothy". So far, things are looking up for him. He's also leading in Minnesota right now, and he's even leading in very early returns in Colorado (!!!) right now. I guess tonight just isn't Mittens' lucky night. Good thing for him that no actual delegates are at stake tonight.
The word coming from the Mitt campaign is that Missouri doesn’t really matter because there are no delegates there and they didn’t commit time or money. The problem, though, is that Santorum doesn’t really have any time or money to commit there either. And if you’re the frontrunner, the presumed nominee, you get clobbered in a swing state just because you didn’t aggressively campaign there? That’s a very, very low standard. Santorum is clearly leaning hard on evangelicals. And really this isn’t about Santorum. It’s about Romney. Absent crushing spending and a week or so to focus on a single state, Romney seems to have a really rough time. That’s bad, especially in the Midwest where a Republican candidate has to run strong. And especially when he’s faltering in national polls versus President Obama.
We've talked about it before, and I guess we'll have to talk about it yet again tonight. If Mittens is so "inevitable", then why can't he win here? And why won't Republican voters actually turn out to confirm him as their nominee? Clearly, Mitt Romney is still not all that popular with his own party right now. And we're seeing that on full display tonight.
7:20 PM-
NBC News just projected Rick Santorum to win Minnesota. He's been up in early tallies, and apparently his lead has become too big for the others to overcome. And now, supposed "inevitable" one Mitt Romney is in third place there. Yikes.
Again, don't be surprised to hear Romney's campaign spin this as "meaningless". But when he can't win these states and start wrapping up this process, especially considering he's the one with the "top of the line" campaign and top of the field fundraising, there's a real problem in G-O-TEA World.
8:00 PM-
Oh, lordy help us. "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is now doing his "victory lap". And he's already resorting to the desperate G-O-TEA character assassination against President Obama. Oh yes, he's the evil, "uppity" black guy who thinks he can rule over the po' lil' white folk!
Oooh, and he won't listen to the po' lil' white teabaggers who want to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!"
Give me a fucking break, "Frothy"! Oh yes, and WHEN I finally do get gay married, I'll be sending you an invitation... Just to chap your hide, you bigoted jackass!
8:35 PM-
OK. This is just ridiculous. Santorum flat out rejects sound science, rejects basic human dignity, and flat out rejects sanity. And yet, Republicans tonight seem to be rejecting lukewarm Mittens to get some of that real Santorum tonight.
OK, let's do a show of hands for who watched Ralston last night. Come on. Hands up, everyone! (In case you actually didn't, here it is below.)
The Nevada G-O-TEA obviously still has a whole lot of questions to answer after this fiasco. How did their turnout actually drop a full 26% and 11,000+ voters from 2008? Why was it so difficult and painfully long to count fewer than 33,000 ballots? Who made the decision to require attendees at the Saturday night "Adelson School Campus" in Summerlin to sign a religious waiver in order to caucus?
Clearly, their whole strategy involved wishing and hoping and praying that:
1. The candidates gin up enough enthusiasm to bump up turnout.
2. Blind, crazed hatred of President Obama also does its part to rally the teabaggers to the caucus sites.
3. All that anti-Obama sentiment also rubs off on independents, and pushes them to go Republican.
4. The county parties know what to do once the caucuses start.
And clearly, nothing that they wished and hoped and prayed for came to fruition. The Republican campaigns didn't want to do party building for the state party. And particularly down south, the Clark County GOP just couldn't get it together.
And then, there's Obama. For 3 years now, Republicans have been trying to sell America on our supposed "failure" under President Obama. They've been painting this scene of destitution and despair. Oh yes, and they've been quite heavy on the malaise. Whenever one hears these G-O-TEA candidates speak, one gets the sense that they're speaking of an "America in decline", a once great superpower that's now being hobbled by those "REDS!!!" in China and "The Eurozone". Let's face it, the entire Republican plan for victory has been predicated on Obama's AND America's failure.
The flap over the ad confirms the GOP’s serious branding problem: The problem for Rove and the rest of the GOP is that their party’s narrative has become relentlessly negative, pessimistic and uninspiring. They’ve left the language of optimism and resilience, higher ground and common ground, to the Democrats, and lately President Obama has grabbed every opportunity to employ that language. [...]
Karl Rove is angry because he sees the numbers, too, and he’s got to explain them away with dark allusions to “Chicago politics.” But the fact is the president saved the auto industry at a time when Republicans, most notably Mitt Romney, urged him to let it die. If he gets credit for that unpopular decision, that’s because he deserves it.
And if Clint Eastwood sounds like a Democrat when he talks about American ingenuity and optimism, that’s because increasingly it’s Democrats who sound that way – and Republicans who don’t. Ronald Reagan co-opted buoyancy and hopefulness for a generation, painting Democrats from Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis through Al Gore and John Kerry (with a break for Bill Clinton) as Negative Nellies, whiners and complainers always finding fault with America.
Now it’s Republicans who bad-mouth the American people, warning that lax morals and laziness are behind the problems of the poor and working class (including whites), and who paint scary dystopic pictures of America under its Kenyan anti-colonialist socialist black president. Karl Rove’s hissy fit over the Chrysler ad underscores exactly how bleak his party’s vision has become.
Listen to the likes of Dean Heller & Joe Heck preaching "AUSTERITY!!!", and it sounds like they're ready to not just rip apart our social safety net, but also give up on the American tradition of investment in innovation that's made us great. And listen to the actual "tea partiers" at the local "tea party" gatherings around the state, and it sounds like America's already been declared some sort of failed state. Funny enough, for all the Republicans' longing for "Ronald Reagan like optimism", they're now the ones pushing the negative "Blame America(ns) First" attitude that Reagan so hated.
Funny enough, this is something you won't hear Ralston and the Nevada G-O-TEA bosses discuss. Yes, obviously the party had plenty of logistical problems that led to so much mayhem. However, there's an even deeper problem with Republicans everywhere that I suspect is causing the lower turnout in Nevada, and in other states. Americans are by nature an optimistic people. We want to root for success, and we want to cheer on success once we start to see it. But in all their negative campaigning, the Republican campaigns have not just been bashing President Obama, but they've also essentially been cheering on America's failure. And really, who gets excited over all this talk of failure?
Frankly, Joan Walsh is right that this is problem we on the left faced in the past. When the likes of Walter Mondale and John Kerry rambled on about everything that was wrong in America, many Americans just wanted to tune them out. But now, it feels like the roles have genuinely reversed. President Obama has the quintessential story of American Exceptionalism, and he's offering a positive vision of American success that we see working. Yet while Obama gives us reason to believe in American success, all the Republicans talk about is how we've supposedly failed. And since actions speak louder than words, what their G-O-TEA friends in Congress are doing looks even worse. Again, why would voters want to embrace their vision of a failed state in need of being restarted from scratch?
So now we can see why some Nevadans probably decided that a day on the ski slopes or a day preparing for "The Big Game" was more worthwhile than the Nevada Republican Caucus. Not only couldn't the party get the process right, but the party no longer wants to celebrate what's right about America. The days of them supposedly having a "lock on patriotism" are clearly long gone.
“It didn’t need to happen this way. With more planning, more process — more space for observers ... people being in close quarters added to the tension,” said Carl Bunce, Paul’s Nevada campaign director. “A couple of changes and you won’t have national staffers breathing down the necks of county people. Cause we’re in different worlds.”
Republican Party officials held a tense meeting with lawyers from each of the presidential campaigns early Sunday. Uneasy campaign officials gave the county party room to continue counting before issuing public comments on the process.
But as the counting stretched past the 24-hour mark, political reporters from around the nation mocked Nevada’s inability to quickly finalize its results.
“The biggest loser in Nevada’s Republican caucuses? The state’s feckless GOP,” wrote Politico.
The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza tweeted: “Nevada not helping their case to hump further up in calendar with this sloooooow count.”
Even some of the volunteers counting ballots seemed to be aware that Nevada’s political stock was sinking as the count dragged on.
And of course, this whole fiasco over the actual vote count isn't helping Nevada Republicans, either. How else can one explain their sudden embrace of "BIG GOVERNMENT SOCIALISM!!!" as they start making noise over switching back to a state run primary?
Well, at least we now know the big winner of Nevada's Republican Caucus: President Obama.
OK, I just can't help it. And frankly, I think I have to bring this up again... Especially since Clark County GOP boss Dave Gibbs actually said his caucuses were "not an election". Just as many of us were suspecting all along, the Nevada G-O-TEA's last minute decision to placate their #1 Mr. Moneybags, Sheldon Adelson, hold an evening caucus at the Adelson Educational Campus in Summerlin is now causing a whole lot of controversy... And possibly future legal headaches, as well.
Michael Dicicco, 23 and a Paul supporter, said he was unable to attend the morning caucus because he was working and came out to the Adelson school after receiving a call from the Paul campaign.
"I thought this was a second opportunity to vote," said Dicicco, who was turned away after refusing to sign the declaration. "I don't understand why I wouldn't be able to vote if I'm not Jewish." [...]
Metro Police were called to remove Stephen Melancon, who was obstructing the entrance while trying to question a Clark County GOP official about the declaration.
Melancon, a high school teacher who said he was a Republican delegate in the 2008 elections, missed the morning caucus because he had to cover a shift at an adult mental health group home where he also works, he said.
"It makes the whole thing a sham," he said of the declaration. "It bothers me that in a process like this they're requiring people to lie (in order to caucus). I didn't come here to do anything other than cast my vote for Ron Paul."
Even some who were attending the evening caucus because they had been honoring the Sabbath were uncomfortable with the form.
"I don't think it's any of their business why I'm here," said Donna Fisher, who is Jewish. "They should just be glad I'm out here to vote."
The Nevada Republican Party required all Adelson Campus caucus-goers to first sign a declaration stating that they couldn't participate at their regularly scheduled neighborhood caucus due to religious reasons. Yes. That's right. You read me right. These caucus-goers essentially had to sign a pledge addressing their religious beliefs in order to vote.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if federal election laws were violated last night. And no, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of those angry caucus-goers is on the phone with an election law attorney right now. This is about to get awfully ugly.
Nevada GOP dealing with “trouble box” of questionable ballots
And if that wasn't bad enough, there's even more explosive material in the actual story!
Party officials have confirmed that ballots in multiple precincts exceeded the number of voters who signed in. The “trouble box” also includes ballots on which two candidates were marked and other irregularities.
David Gallagher, executive director of the state party, could not confirm or even give a rough estimate of the number of ballots in question.
“It’s a small number,” he said.
Party officials spent much of the morning in a closed-door meeting with campaign officials to discuss the process for counting the ballots and determine what to do with the ballot box.
A procedure for dealing with the “trouble box” will be agreed upon by party and campaign officials, Gallagher said. He and other party officials acknowledged that some of the precincts may be “thrown out.”
“Obviously we want to count as many ballots as possible,” Gallagher said. “We want people’s voices to be heard.”
And apparently, the chaos wasn't limited to Clark County. There were problems up north as well.
And again, this is leading to talk of making Nevada a primary state (again). After all, if we're supposed to believe Dave Gibbs of the Clark County GOP, "This is NOT an election. This is a caucus." Well, guess what, Dave Gibbs? Nevada voters want an election, not a chaotic hot mess and farcical fracas of a "caucus".
Dave Gibbs may sound cruel, but maybe he has a point. This really doesn't look like an election... And that's the problem here. It's looking increasingly clear that people trying to caucus at the Adelson School in Summerlin last night were disenfranchised. And if Clark County Republicans just throw out ballots despite promising voters (who suffered "caucus irregularities" like not being given official ballots) that their ballots would be counted, then even more Nevada Republican voters will be disenfranchised.
Oh, and it wasn't just the "East Coast Big Media Elite" that snickered as the local G-O-TEA faltered. Their "Left Coast"West Coast colleagues were also appalled.
Sure, Ron Paul's fanatical band of fringe followers are harping on this issue and already crying foul. But you know what? Those "crazy Ron Paul people" may be right about this. Sure, they're wrong about all their other wackadoodle conspiracy theories involving everything from the gold standard to JFK's assassination to "the illuminati" to the "9/11 inside job" to raw milk. But when it comes to the Nevada G-O-TEA flagrantly violating voters' rights, putting up these ridiculous barricades to voter participation, and doing nothing to reassure Nevadans that the vote count they're releasing is honest and accurate, the "crazy Ron Paul people" may ultimately prove to be right on the money.
If this is "not an election", then why do we allow this to happen?
The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters in Washoe County on Saturday, party officials reported, down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 Washoe County Republicans who showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008.
This year’s turnout amount amounted to about 8 percent of all registered Republicans in the county.
“I think part of it people just don’t like the caucus process,” said David Buell, the chairman of the Washoe County Republican Party.
The disorganization of four years ago, marked by long lines and crowded polling locations, may have discouraged some voters from coming Saturday, Buell added.
“I know a lot of people stayed home and said I’m not going through that process again,” he said, something that has resulted in many Republicans asking for a state-run primary instead of the party-run caucus system. That change would need to be adopted by the Legislature.
Wow. I guess when Republicans get embarrassed this badly, they start embracing "SOE-SHUL-IZMM!!!!!"
And you know what should embarrass them even more? They just crowned this guy as the winner.
Yes, Nevada Republicans really picked this guy as their "winner".
Mitt Romney should fire everyone on his campaign staff and hire me. I have the solution to all of his problems: a muzzle.
Seriously, in an election season where 3/4 of the country are pissed off at the banks, and the rich in general, for having too much power and influence over our government, just about anything Mitt Romney says is going go over like a lead balloon.
Following up on his infamous “Corporations are people, my friend” gaffe, Mitt Romney has sealed his reputation as part of the 1% by stating that “the banks aren’t bad people.” Yes, the man definitely needs a muzzle. And maybe one of those electric shock collars as well.
Well, I guess we can't fault them too much, since they actually bothered to show up. Obviously, a whole lot of other Nevada Republicans didn't. I guess it was more important to ski, or perhaps to spend a little extra time preparing for the Super Bowl "Big Game" Party. (Seriously, folks, democratic participation IS important... So it's still at least a little saddening to see this caucus flop so badly.)
Mitt said he could fix the economy that Obama ruined. He said the improved unemployment numbers are not real because they just reflect that people stopped looking for work. Pay attention to this one because it’s viral. The truth is that private sector job growth has grown under Obama more than it has since Reagan, and those numbers can’t be gotten around no matter how many times they utter “but no one is looking for work anymore.”
At any rate, Mitt has no solution for fixing the economy other than assuring us that as businessman (who dismantled companies and shuttled his profits offshore), he knows how to do it. A pause while Americans wonder if they want to be one of Bain’s mom and pops that get taken apart and sold off in bits so that Romney can add another 100 million to his Swiss account.
Romney went on about Nevada’s troubles and never mentioned that they were a direct result and perfect example of lawless vulture capitalism. He blamed Obama for their unemployment rates and never said a word about why their homes were in foreclosure or who got rich off of their misery. He avoided mentioning the fact that the recession started in 2007 and the housing market collapsed soon after. It’s hard to see how Obama can be blamed for that or how it’s Obama’s fault that Romney stands for the same exact deregulation that created the housing bubble that led to the bubble burst.
Mitt lied about Solyndra, lied about healthcare reform, promised to repeal “Obama Care”, lied about the economy (was caught earlier saying it was great but now it sucks), lied about the private sector….Mitt lied. [...]
Romney wants to be President so badly that he is willing to sell out to the lowest common denominator. A man who could have at the very least stood for manners and decorum – a measure of civility – now stands for absolutely nothing.
And to boot, Mitt blew his hate wad way too early. We can see from his speech tonight that he plans on running against Barack X, the fictional Barack Obama, as Bill Maher so brilliantly put it last week. Mitt Romney plans on running against the economic failure and weak on defense Obama. You know, the guy who only exists on Fox News.
And finally, we've learned that Nevada's Republican Caucus really did turn out to be irrelevant in the whole process. Despite what happened last night, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and Ron Paul all vow to press on. And despite what happened last night, Mittens remains in his precarious position as "kinda-sorta-frontrunner-who-seems-inevitable-but-still-looks-weak". Great job, Nevada G-O-TEA. "The Great Cave of 2011" will keep coming back to haunt them.
And this whole fiasco of a caucus will keep coming back to haunt Nevada Republicans as they sow the seeds of their own defeat later this year.
OK, time for a new thread! Let's get started (all over again).
And now, we're finally starting to get real results. Right now, it's neck and neck between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich... But that's just Eureka County. Apparently, it may also be close in Carson City. But of course, we already have a good idea of what to expect in the rest of the state...
Apparently, CNN figured out that all the rest of us were already seeing the caucus results live on Twitter. Heh. They're now estimating Romney's win at about 54% of the vote, with Ron Paul edging out Newt Gingrich for second place. They're now claiming these numbers are "exclusively CNN's!!!"... And ignoring that we already saw all of this on Twitter this morning.
Sorry, CNN... But you FAIL!
5:35 PM-
And now, we're getting more rural numbers. Newt Gingrich narrowly won Mineral County while Ron Paul snatched a big win in Nye County. However while we're still waiting for Clark County, Romney just has to wait and sit pretty.
Voss' tone shifted seamlessly between playful and angry. He is not an ideologue. He's worried about the deficit and the housing market, particularly in his home state. He acknowledges that Romney's desire to see the foreclosure crisis play itself out isn't exactly his cup of tea. He wants the banks to feel more pressure to restructure loans and he thinks Obama hasn't done enough on that front.
"Smaller banks are being pushed out of business," he said. "You can't favor big banks."
Voss believes that the country faces a potentially cataclysmic budget crisis, but there are some cuts he thinks go too far. A 22-year veteran, he doesn't want military spending levels tweaked. He also wants his pension protected. Pressed a bit more about his animus toward the president, he concedes that what Obama inherited from President George W. Bush wasn't all that pretty.
"I don't think [John] McCain could have done that much better," he said. But that's hardly an excuse for staying the course. "We need someone to blow things up."
Nicole McGreary, another Henderson resident, wants Romney to essentially blow things up as well. And unlike a large portion of the Republican Party, she is deeply enthused about his candidacy, considering him both virtuous -- "What personal agenda would he personally have other than to see the country prosper?" -- and ideal for the times. Asked what it would take her to switch her allegiance over to Obama, she can only summon one scenario.
"He would have to move to some other country for me to consider voting for him," she said.
Like Voss, McGreary is tough to pigeonhole. She doesn't like being called a "conservative," because of the implication that she might be a member of the religious right. She believes in gay marriage and said she thinks it's fine for states, not the federal government, to legalize abortion. Her disdain for the president is tied to his health care law and his energy policy -- from his administration's support for Solyndra, the failed solar energy company that received federal loans, to its opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline.
Mostly, however, it's about Obama's personality.
"I believe he is a liar," she said. "He contradicts himself time after time."
They really are motivated by hatred. How else can one explain how these folks, who don't consider themselves radical right, are supporting the radical right G-O-TEA? This is the one ugly tool the G-O-TEA has left to distract voters from what's really happening and try to siphon otherwise moderate voters away from Democrats. However, I'm still hopeful that this can only take them so far. Not everyone is that motivated by blind hatred.
Hey, this is just a reminder of what kind of crap the G-O-TEA will be throwing at us in the general election. And hey, they have to resort to crap. After all, their "enthusiasm gap" problem continues to worsen. Washoe GOP turnout was indeed below 7,000 today, so they'll have to stoop to new lows to try to revive their sagging fortunes.
Hey, #NV #TeaParty, if Sharon Angle couldn't beat Harry Reid, what makes you think @MittRomney can beat #Obama? #NVCaucus #tcot #tpn
Funny enough, he unintentionally pointed out the greatest weakness of Nevada Republicans. Ever since 2008, they've been obsessing over ideological purity instead of even attempting to show any real interest in governing. We saw it in 2010, when they embraced extremism and tried to shove the most radical US Senate candidate we've ever seen down our throats. And we saw it again last year, when they were more interested in playing political games than solving our state's problems. It's really all about their radical "tea party" ideology for them. And by making Mitt Romney embrace it, they're only sowing the seeds of their own defeat this fall.
Here's what I'm talking about. Thank you, Kevin Drum.
Alas, poor Mitt. Now he knows what it feels like to be Barack Obama. For the past two years Obama has basically been forced to say that, sure, the economy is bad, but it would have been even worse without his policies in place. That might be true or it might not, but it's sure not a vote getter.
Now Romney's on the other end of that argument. Sure, the economy is getting better, but it would be even better still without Obama's policies. Again, maybe that's true and maybe it's not, but no one cares. If the economy is getting better, then people are happy and they're going to vote for the guy in the White House. Romney had better figure out something better than that if he wants to have any chance of victory in November.
Mitt Romney's whole strategy has been to bet on a bad economy. He sincerely thought he could get away with all his ideological flip-flops and pretzel twists by blaming the horrible economy on President Obama. But now that he's on record veering so far to the radical right, and now that the economy is not horrible and is improving, he has nothing left to run on. Seriously, what's the point of Romney's campaign? That's why tonight's "win" is so hollow.
7:50 PM-
Mittens is now speaking. And as usual, he's rehashing the usual "Obama is EVIL!!!" bullshit. Again, that's all he has left. He's trashing and bashing Obama because that's all he has to rev up his new radical right BFFs, and he's trashing and bashing Obama in hopes of distracting the rest of us from what's really happening.
Wow. Just wow. MSNBC is abandoning Nevada GOP Caucus coverage... For "Lockup"! How pathetic. Sure, there's a problem with MSNBC trying to maintain journalistic standards while continuing to dip into the "reality freak show" pond. However, there's also a clear problem in the Nevada GOP Caucus becoming such a ridiculous farce that hardly anyone cares any more.
Again, congratulations are in order for the Nevada G-O-TEA for producing such a bombastically irrelevant event.
Oh, and speaking of bombastically irrelevant... Check out Molly Ball's tweets of the hilarious Adelson School Night Caucus! Apparently, the Ron Paul fans are really turning up the crazy with all sorts of wild conspiracy theories. Heh. And everyone thought this was supposed to stuff the ballot box for Newt Gingrich?
Oh, jeez. I may have to stay up longer to follow this some more! :-D
One reporter asked Gingrich about his absence from reporters for a few days, while he was reportedly meeting with donors.
"Did you miss me?" Gingrich answered with a clear note of sarcasm. "Okay, I was worried that you may not have noticed."
He then explained why he was working on strategy. "Well we got together for a very practical reason. I was surprised by the degree to which the establishment has closed ranks, and made quite clear that they're desperate over the prospect of a Gingrich presidency. I was amazed by George Soros saying in Davos that he was happy with either Obama or Romney, because it was not a difference of policy, it was just a change in personality."
He then explained that he and his campaign concluded that the establishment would go all out to defeat him, with Wall Street money and other resources — but that the people would not go along.
"Do they want two George Soros-approved candidates in the general election, or do they want a conservative, and one George Soros-approved candidate?"
Whoa. Newton is going there. Is he now auditioning for a reality show?
Newt Gingrich took questions from reporters in Las Vegas, following Mitt Romney's big victory in the Nevada caucuses. One reporter asked, can he successfully go forward if Mitt Romney is as much in his head as he has been tonight and for the last few days? Newt then shot back at the reporter's ability to read his thoughts.
"Well first of all, I'm not sure that Mitt Romney's in my head," said Gingrich. "I mean, I think that's an interesting analysis on your part. And I'm sure that with a psychiatric degree, that will get a tremendous opportunity to have new clients.
I think there's a clear contrast. I think that the clear contrast is really important. And I think that over time we're going to drive that clear contrast in a way that is to his disadvantage."
Crazy!
8:55 PM-
And now, Nevada Caucus Season is finally coming to an end. The campaign is leaving us as we speak... For now. But of course, the fun and games will be back in full force for the general election.
But if the president is presiding over an economy that voters believe is improving, the magic vanishes. Which explains the awkwardness the Romney campaign faced this morning, when the most encouraging jobs report of Obama’s presidency was released. With a net increase of 243,000 jobs in January, the unemployment rate is now down to 8.3 percent, marking the fifth straight month it fell and bringing it to its lowest level since Obama’s first full month in office.
Faced with such obviously good economic news, the Romney team took its time responding, first churning out a press release on an unrelated topic (“President Obama’s attack on religious liberty”) then finally putting out a statement that read in part: “We welcome the fact that jobs were created and unemployment declined. Unfortunately, these numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama’s policies have prevented a true economic recovery. We can do better.” A series of negative economic statistics then followed.
Besides the acknowledgement that “jobs were created,” the statement was no different than anything Romney has been saying for the entire campaign. But juxtaposed against the big news of the morning, it read as petty, and almost absurdly comical. If — and, to be clear, it’s a very big if — the good economic news continues in the months ahead, Romney’s rhetoric will only fall flatter.
Again, this takes us back to why Mittens and the Nevada G-O-TEA leaders are trying so desperately to spin what happened today. They have to try to make it all some morbid Obama hate-fest. Otherwise, we'd all focus on this EPIC FAIL of caucus organization.
9:30 PM-
And on this note, I'm ending the liveblogging for tonight. Keep checking here for live updates throughout the night. I suspect it will go even longer. I'll be back tomorrow morning to wrap it all up.
