Monday, October 29, 2012

Second Weekend of Early Voting Breakdown (& Forecast for the Final Days)

Yesterday, early voting slowed down in Clark and Washoe Counties. In Clark County, the Democratic turnout advantage ticked down a bit to 16% (49-33). But in Washoe County, Democrats' turnout advantage actually ticked up to 2.5% (42.6-40.1). So far, Democrats have likely extended their raw early vote turnout lead to at least 30,000 statewide.

Here's what Bloomberg had to say about the general early voting trend here.

In two of the most competitive states in the U.S. presidential race -- Iowa and Nevada --Democrats are building a significant advantage in early voting. [...]

Thus far in Nevada, where an even larger proportion of the vote has been cast than in Iowa when compared to the 2008 vote, Democrats have accounted for 45.4 percent, according to the Nevada secretary of state’s office. Republicans have accounted for 37.2 percent and independent voters for 17.4 percent.

Heavily Democratic Clark County, Nevada’s most populous and where Las Vegas is located, has seen people registered with the president’s party cast 121,298 early and absentee ballots, compared to 81,512 for Republicans, through Oct. 27.

And their figures don't include yesterday's early vote totals. And in regards to the early vote totals here in Clark County, I have a theory as to why Democratic turnout was off a bit yesterday... And may remain lower today and tomorrow. Basically, look at where the early voting is happening. Yesterday, early voting started in Sun City Anthem. And for the next two days, there will be temporary early voting sites there and at Sun City Summerlin, Boulder City, and Mesquite. So long story short, Republican turnout is probably strengthening slightly because early voting is happening in Republican strongholds.

However, starting Wednesday we'll see temporary early voting sites shift more to East Las Vegas and North Las Vegas. So as long as Democrats turn out their voters there (in what are the big Democratic strongholds in the Las Vegas Valley), Democrats can still close the week, and early voting, quite well. We'll just have to wait and see exactly what happens this week.

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