President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change.
AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here.
Again, Mark Mellman was one of the ONLY pollsters, public or private, to correctly call the winner (Harry Reid) and the margin (just over 5%) in the 2010 NV-Sen race. When Mellman speaks, everyone must listen.
Oh, and here are some more reasons why everyone should listen to this. First off, Nevada has over 7.1% more registered Democrats than Republicans. Secondly, Nevada Democrats have been working incredibly hard in the field to prepare for a strong GOTV ("get out the vote") finish. And finally, Nevada's changing demographics are reshaping the electorate in ways that truly frighten the now "tea party" controlled Nevada GOP.
This is why, now more than ever before, Nevada is poised to remain a Blue State this fall. Early voting begins tomorrow, and by next week we'll get a fuller sense of what's actually happening. But certainly even now, President Obama must be liking his chances here.