Thursday, March 10, 2011

Senator Dean Heller?

If we're to believe NNB, I guess so...

But wait, don't we still have an election next year?

Of course, I'd be foolish not to admit that Dean Heller looks to be the early favorite in next year's Senate race. However, plenty can change in the course of 20 months. Whatever happened to "Senator Sue Lowden"?

What if Heller loses the GOP primary? Or what happens if he survives, but is mightily weakened? And what happens if Democrats have a strong nominee who can easily win Clark and Washoe? And if President Obama again wins Nevada by double digits, as PPP's January poll shows is possible? (Remember: PPP's final 2010 Senate poll had Sharron Angle narrowly ahead 47-46, and their final 2008 Presidential poll had Obama only winning 51-47, so they have a history of underestimating Democratic turnout.)

One thing I've learned about Nevada politics in the last nearly 2 years of living here is not to assume I already know the answers long before election day. There's often far more happening behind the scenes. There really is more than what initially meets the eyes. Even Jon Ralston has acknowledged the DSCC made some good points about Heller's weaknesses both in Washoe and Clark Counties.

So is it "game over" in the Senate race? I think not. In fact, I think the fun and games are only beginning here. ;-)

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