Basic Instinct

Hey, someone has to do it. So who will it be? Kevin Drum can't figure it out yet. And frankly, we're having trouble with it as well.

So who will Republicans nominate in 2016? All we can say at this point is that whoever wins that nomination will have turned up the crazy to whole new levels. And whoever wins that nomination probably will have done so by pandering to the basest of base elements.

But why? Why is this likely bound to happen? Don't Republicans want to win? Oh, yes they do... But they're counting on voter suppression "purging" to do the trick.

And perhaps that has helped them win some races here & there. However, not even that can guarantee nationwide viability going into the future. They can't simply purge every non-Republican voter off the rolls.

Ultimately, Republicans need to offer voters more than just hollow "rebranding" in order to expand their ranks. But instead of that, they're just offering failure to govern, warmed over "Culture War" hysteria, and unnecessary hardship. And they're wondering why their 2016 polls look so damned ugly?

They need to pay closer attention to the state of their own party in 2014. They need to pay closer attention to why the Nevada Republican Party has become nothing more than a glorified political fight club. They need to pay closer attention to why their empty slogans don't translate into functioning policies.

We know basic is hardly ever something to aspire to, but we also know that far too many Republican Party "leaders" fail to recognize the basic reality that their party will ultimately be screwed if it fails to adapt to the reality of 21st century America. It's so basic, yet it's so out of their grasp. And if it remains out of their grasp in 2014, they'll eventually regret it come 2016.

Dead Horse

We're not trying to beat a dead horse. We swear. Take a closer look. We're not beating it. We're just calling attention to it.

So where's the horse? Look here.

And yes, don't bother there. Even as national media figures sing the praises of Governor Brian Sandoval (R), he continues to face trouble at home. And he can thank his party's own "TEA" powered base for that.

And that's not all. The "TEA" is also spilling into #NVLeg (again). Just as State Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) was hoping to showcase his favored 2014 candidates, the G-O-TEA base struck back. And it did so in a brutal manner.

But then again, we were never actually surprised by any of this. In fact, we've been saying this for some time: Don't believe all the hype surrounding "Republican rebranding". Jeez, even the Republican National Committee has admitted its "rebranding" has been nothing but a big fat #FAIL.

But of course, it's also claiming this doesn't matter one bit. And why's that? Oh, 2014 is supposed to be a great red "TSUNAMI!!!" (Never mind that there's no real evidence suggesting this.)

Again, we saw this coming. Even as national party "leaders" have been begging for change, G-O-TEA politicians have instead allowed the 21st Century Know Nothings to take control of the party. And not only have they taken control of the party, but they've also forced the party to continue fighting a "Culture War" that everyone else realizes it lost long ago.

We saw this coming. And now, everyone can see this on full display. Even she sees it now. (And of course she does, because she loves being in charge!)

We're not trying to beat a dead horse. We're just pointing out the usual suspects who are beating that dead horse... And hoping you don't notice them doing so.

Wig Under That Wig

Pay attention, hunties. There's a reason why our favorite philosopher has said, "Do not remove your wig... Unless there is another wig underneath your wig!"

Now watch... And learn.



Since we all know reading is fundamental, we must ask this question: When did the "Disney Nickelodeon Meltdown Club" suddenly morph into the Nevada Republican Party? We can't help but wonder. And come on, there's no way we could have missed the hot mess on Twitter that managed to ensnare Ray Hagar and Jon Ralston!

So what happened? Once again, Chuck Muth is f**king it up. Apparently when he's not slandering people he doesn't even know, race baiting to new extremes, or simply lying through his teeth about The Education Initiative, he's "The Campaign Doctor".



And this week, "The Campaign Doctor" has been busy promoting his candidates on various shady corners of the internet. But when he started throwing shade in all the wrong directions, he turned out to be the one left in the dark. (Yet even in the dark, we could still see that bad paint job on that mug.)

And once again, we're left to wonder why the Nevada Republican Party allowed Chuck Muth & his cohorts to conquer the party and remake it in their own image in the first place. Once upon a time, it was the party of Kenny Guinn, Bill Raggio, and Sue Wagner. It was the party of #winning. And even though it was a conservative party, it was also a party that stood for some sort of sound governance.

But now, the Nevada Republican Party has devolved into nothing more than a crazy clown car circus. And gawddammit, grrrl, they can't even lip sync for their lives!

We saw again this week who their true leader is, so we're not surprised that there's still no @NVGOP rebuke of the sh*tshow Chuck Muth starred in online. If anything, they're reveling in it. But in putting on such a show, they forgot a critical rule of engagement: If one truly wants to impress the judges, one best not remove the wig... Unless there's another wig under that wig.

Not Over Yet

We've been talking about this often lately. And we've been doing so because it's having a profound impact on American politics and policy. Of course, we're talking about the G-O-TEA civil war that's ripping the Republican Party apart.

Last night, we saw the culmination in another round of battles. But this time, the 21st Century Know Nothings suffered some setbacks. Their ideal candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, lost his race for Virginia Governor. Their worst nightmare of a candidate, Bill de Blasio, won his race for New York City Mayor. Their latest cause celebre, Dean Young, lost his primary for a Congressional seat in Alabama.

And to add insult to injury, their most loathed Republican, Chris Christie, was easily reelected as New Jersey Governor. And already, DC pundits are chatting up a storm over Christie's 2016 Presidential Campaign that hasn't even started yet (or has it?). So does this mark the beginning of the end of the G-O-TEA as we've come to know it?

Not so fast. Earlier this morning, Mother Jones' David Corn weighed in with a reminder of the bigger picture. Perhaps last night was indeed a turning point. But even if it is, the G-O-TEA Culture Warriors won't be going down without more fights.

The Republican Party is now as divided as any party has been in modern times. The Democratic Party underwent a painful division during the Vietnam War. The conflict between peaceniks and hawks led to an actual riot in 1968 (with the help of the Chicago police). But that split was over one policy disagreement, though quite a large one, not a question of fundamental purpose. The GOP of today is beset by foundational issues—and more than one fracture.

For decades, GOPers have described the Republican national coalition as a stool of three legs: national security Republicans, business Republicans, and socially conservative Republicans. At the moment, all three legs have serious cracks. The McCain hawks shudder in horror at Rand Paul's neo-isolationism. Corporate Rs cannot believe that tea partiers place a desire to kill the government ahead of economic stability. And religious-right GOPers fret that libertarian and demographics-minded Republican strategists want to throttle back on the cultural warfare that alienates independent, young, moderate, and suburban voters.

Each of the three legs are wobbly. Still, most of the passion in Republican circles these days is with the coalition of disrupters and cultural traditionalists. As Lee learned at Chancellorsville, it's not just the numbers of troops you have; it's how you use them. And no one on the right is making better use of field soldiers than Cruz, Limbaugh, DeMint, and the rest. The elections of New Jersey and Virginia will not alter the overall dynamics of the Republican civil war. And the GOP's Gettysburg has yet to come. That battle may ensue in 2014 or wait until 2016. But for now— certainly not after the skirmishes in New Jersey and Virginia— there's no sign that such a conflagration will be avoided.

So it's not over yet. Even Nevada's own Dean Heller, Joe Heck, and Brian Sandoval have implicitly admitted this with their recent actions. And so has Chuck Muth.

So please stay tuned. The Great G-O-TEA Civil War of 2013 will likely spill into 2014. And we still don't know yet when it will finally be over.

In Context

Last week, we dug all the way down to the root of Nevada Republicans' woes. Today, we have another reminder of this. And it comes courtesy of Assembly Member Jim Wheeler (R-Minden).

"If that's what they wanted, I'd have to hold my nose ... they'd probably have to hold a gun to my head, but yeah," Assemblyman Jim Wheeler told members of the Storey County Republican Party at a meeting in August.

His comments were swiftly denounced by Republicans and Democrats alike.

"Assemblyman Wheeler's comments are deeply offensive and have no place in our society," Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval said in a statement. "He should retract his remarks and apologize." [...]

At the August GOP meeting, Wheeler referenced a blog post from conservative activist Chuck Muth, who in June 2010 wrote about Wheeler's candidacy and said, "what if those citizens decided they want to, say, bring back slavery? Hey, if that's what the citizens want, right Jim?"

Wheeler told his audience he responded to Muth and said, "yeah, I would."

Wait, so who is this guy? And how on earth was he elected? Jim Wheeler ran a "TEA" powered primary challenge against incumbent Kelly Kite in 2012... And won.

So why did this happen? Simple. Jim Wheeler was again pledging his allegiance to the G-O-TEA base who launched his political career. And if that meant telling Chuck Muth he'd do whatever it takes to "represent his constituents", he was clearly willing to do so.

And it's not limited to Wheeler. Just last month, Assembly Minority Leader Pat Hickey (R-Reno) boasted of Nevada Republicans' supposedly rising fortunes... And how they rise as minority voters' turnout drops. That was another dirty little G-O-TEA secret that wasn't supposed to be aired aloud.

And then, of course, we recently saw the Nevada Republicans in Congress take part in the G-O-TEA Shutdown S**tfest that pushed America to the brink of Armageddon over petty political temper tantrums. That certainly showcased the current (troubled) state of the Republican Party here and nationally.

So let's be fair to Assembly Member Wheeler today. And let's view his recent comments in context. He likely said what he said in order to placate his party's extreme base. And other Nevada Republicans did what they did in order to placate their party's extreme base. In the midst of all the heat generated by these kinds of incendiary comments, it's always important to shed more light on the context.

Unspinning the Coming "Mod Squad" Mining Tax FAIL

This morning, we examined why evolving is so hard to do for Nevada Republicans. On one hand, their base wants more ideological "purity". But on the other hand, the rest of the voters have been consistently rejecting what their base demands. So what are Nevada Republicans to do?

Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) seems to be eyeing change regardless of what the "tea party" naysayers say. He may have backslid on marriage equality earlier this week, but Senator Roberson is back on "The Mod Squad Express" as he keeps pushing his troubled IP 1 mining tax alternative. And it's driving Chuck Muth even crazier (than he's already been whenever "Roberson" falls out of anyone's mouth).



Of course, this has Jon Ralston worked into a frenzy. He had Senator Roberson on his show last night, and he was waxing poetic yesterday on the doomed tax initiative. Oh why, oh why, won't anyone else give "The Senate GOP Mod Squad Mining Tax Alternative" a chance?!

Maybe Roberson could have been more inclusive when he first spring the mining tax plan. But the “if Roberson says black, we’ll say white” attitude from Democrats is pure petulance, imputing his announcement only to killing the margins tax the business community abhors (he has been open about that) and giving him no credit for going after mining (as some of them and many of their allies have long wanted to do).

Even if they think Roberson is a shameless grandstander, why not embrace his effort if they really want more money for education? Are they really going to say they are opposed to a mining tax? Are they going to claim they prefer a broad-based solution, which they have yet to provide and, my guess is, will not offer? [...]

I have mentioned before that many people in the building – Democrats, Republicans, lobbyists – don’t trust Roberson. That is his biggest hurdle – and it may be insurmountable. He is a bull in the legislative zoo, and the other political animals are not amused.

Why folks don’t think he is trying to rebrand the GOP while also killing the margins tax, helping fund education and perhaps taking the majority is beyond me. It’s a triple bank shot, but that is what he is up to. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

“I want people to start looking at the Republican Party differently,” Roberson said Wednesday. “We can’t be the party of no, no, no.”

I can't believe this is actually necessary. But since Ralston keeps beating this dead horse, I guess we'll have to do it. So here we go.

First off, the law doesn't seem to favor Roberson. Sure, he got the LCB to write him favorable opinions. But at this point, it's three against one in Carson City as Governor Brian Sandoval (R), Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D), and Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) all declaring his initiative unconstitutional. Why? As we've discussed here before and Amicus Nevada has continued to explain, the Legislature's failure to actually vote on IP 1 (aka The Education Initiative) and propose an alternative by March 15 has created a steep legal hurdle. The LCB opinions have had to find some rather creative ways to stretch Article 19 of the Nevada Constitution to justify continued pursuit of "The Mod Squad Mining Tax".

Yet while Senator Roberson and his allies find new legal arguments for their mining tax alternative, they haven't been able to find any new votes. And while he keeps trying to blame Democrats for this, the fact remains that he can't even get the rest of his Republican Party to back his initiative. He may be a titular Republican leader, but the heart of the party still very much looks to be with Sharron Angle. Nevada's own "Tea Party Queen" appeared in Elko earlier this week to promote her new book, but she also didn't hesitate to talk about her new plan to grow more "tea party" candidates for higher office.



Sharron Angle clearly refuses to go away. And really, why should she? The G-O-TEA base still sides with her on the issues. And on top of that, she may soon find new and previously unlikely allies, as the mining industry has been preparing to declare political war on "The Mod Squad". Oh, and as mentioned earlier, Governor Sandoval has no interest in backing up Senator Roberson on his mining tax alternative.

Perhaps this is why Senator Roberson prefers to deflect blame onto Democrats. It's easier for him to blame Democrats than to admit that the law and the bulk of his party don't seem to agree with him.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all Democrats have been angels when it comes to preparing a proper state budget. Far from it, I have not hesitated to criticize Democrats when they were wrong. But come on, one can't blame Democratic leaders for keeping their distance from a tax initiative that's legally questionable at best and creating even more chaos within Republican ranks.

So just keep this in mind next time some media pundit for Republican Senator tries to deflect blame for the failure of the tax initiative that was never to be.

On Sharron Angle, Nevada Republicans, & Mining Tax

She's back! Really, how long can we go without a Sharron Angle sighting? She was spotted at the Nevada Legislature today. Here's what she told Ralston.

Caught up w/@SharronAngle. Said just visiting, not here for any bill. Might she be on the ballot in 2014? "Anything's possible." #lickschops

We've discussed before how Sharron Angle continues to influence the Nevada Republican Party. And we're seeing that on display again now.

Last week, State Senator Michael Roberson (R-New RINO?) announced his poison pill intended to kill The Education Initiative. OK, that sounds conservative enough. But there was a twist. Roberson decided to introduce an alternative to IP 1 in a new mining tax... And 5 of his Senate Republican colleagues joined him in support of the IP 1 alternative mining tax!

Of course, that led to the explosion of Chuck Muth's head. And not only that, but apparently other powerful "Tea Party, Inc." operatives are about to declare war on "The Dirty Half-dozen". As we discussed last week, Roberson is worsening Nevada Republicans' civil war with his pursuit of mining tax reform.

It's not as if prominent Nevada conservatives haven't complained about the mining industry's sweetheart deal before. Can you guess who said this?

"The mining industry has traditionally sort of been given a pass for some reason or another. I guess it goes back to the days when they were the bosses and they were the big business in the state. That was a long, long, long time ago." [...]

"The reason I am here and I have this sense of urgency in my voice, is because I have a fear, that like other things that have happened in the state of Nevada recently, this is an attempt for one sector of the economy to insulate itself against its fair share: and I know what happens when that happens up here because you fellows always look to us. And you cannot allow that to happen, if you take some time to study it. This sort of thing has got to come to a halt. You have to take an intelligent, close, careful look at how you are going to face the future."

"(What) we should have done last year and which should be done immediately, is that we should remove mining from its special consideration to be treated like the rest of the businesses, like the rest of us in the State of Nevada."

Believe it or not, that was "tea party" icon and Las Vegas Strip power player Steve Wynn back in 1989. And just last year, "Tea Party, Inc." kingmaker Monte Miller pushed a mining tax initiative! Roberson's new proposal was apparently inspired by Miller's initiative.

So it's not as if Nevada Republicans were completely opposed to mining tax reform before. But because the "tea party" demands ideological "purity", any realistic tax talk is no longer allowed. That's why Congress can't reach a budget deal. And that's why Michael Roberson and the rest of the Senate GOP "Dirty Half-dozen" are facing immense backlash from their own party.

She may have lost NV-Sen in 2010, but Sharron Angle seems to be winning the battle for the soul of the Nevada Republican Party today. We'll just have to wait and see what kind of carnage she and Muth want to see in Republican primaries next year. I have a feeling that won't be pretty (except in the eyes of certain Democratic operatives).

Roberson Opens Pandora's Box.

It was supposed to be "genius". Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) shocked everyone with his brand new tax triangulation scheme. In what will likely be a final and lasting break from his former political soulmate, Roberson proposed a new mining tax as an alternative to The Education Initiative.

Roberson figured this would be political master stroke. Find a way to bury The Education Initiative alive, throw Democrats into disarray, and claim new populist ground in proposing mining tax reform. What's not to love? It now looks like several of Roberson's fellow Republicans are answering that question in a way he didn't want.

Oops.

“I'm not happy," said Sen. Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka, whose rural Nevada district includes most of the state's largest mining projects.

“I don’t know if we’re sending the message right now to the mining industry that we’re going to throw you under the bus,” he added.

Sen. Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas, opposed the move outright.

“I don’t support singling out on industry,” she said. “It wasn’t a good idea in ’03, and it’s not a good idea today.”

The reaction from many Assembly Republicans, who were not told ahead of time what the Senate Republicans were planning, was nothing short of anger.

“For those of us in the rurals, getting stabbed in the back by the Republicans — the party that supposedly opposes tax increases — is disgraceful,” Assemblyman Ira Hansen, R-Sparks, said.

Assemblyman John Ellison, R-Elko, echoed the sentiment.

“A bunch of us think the six individual senators should have come to see us before making a decision,” he said. “They should’ve come talked to us.”

And to make things even worse for Roberson, Governor Brian Sandoval (R-Nevada Mining Association) quickly announced his opposition to the Roberson mining tax plan. Oh, and the gaming arm of "The Gaming-Mining-Lobbying Industrial Complex" (aka the Nevada Resort Association) won't support the Roberson mining tax plan, either (though it didn't really take any position on SJR 15).

Michael Roberson has now opened Nevada Republicans' version of Pandora's Box. He was hoping to fracture the left with this move. Instead, he's fracturing the right.

And Roberson's big move may ultimately create a constitutional crisis this session. Article 19 of the Nevada Constitution explicitly states any alternative proposed by the Legislature must be approved by the Governor. Since Roberson is proposing this mining tax as an alternative to The Education Initiative, it must be signed by Sandoval.

But what if Sandoval doesn't sign, as he's already signaled he will? Can Roberson secure the votes to override a Sandoval veto? And even if he does, is that even legal? Hello, Nevada Supreme Court! And welcome back, 2003.

Certainly, Roberson shook up the budget debate in Carson City with his new tax plan. He just so happened to unleash an earthquake where he wasn't expecting one. And on top of that, the new divisions among Republicans and "The Gaming-Mining-Lobbying Industrial Complex" give progressives an unprecedented opening to pursue real tax reform in the next 20 months.

All of a sudden, the 77th session of the Nevada Legislature is looking quite fun. And we have Senator Michael Roberson to thank for this.

Need Any More Proof That Nevada Is a Blue State?

Last Tuesday, Dean Heller (barely) won election to a full term in the US Senate. Now remember this fact. It will actually help explain what he told The Reno Gazette-Journal over the weekend.

“I just think Obama relates better to the average person in the state of Nevada, as opposed to Romney,” Heller said.

“And I think at the end of the day, that candidates do matter and I think that was a reflection of (Election Day) and why Obama did so much better,” Heller said. “He is an excellent speaker. He understands what the average middle class family is thinking.”

Oh, and he also said this.

Many Nevada voters could relate to an “Obama-Heller ticket,” Heller said. When Heller first mentioned the need for Obama voters to also support him, the feedback was swift.

“In fact, after I made that comment, I had a number of people approach me and say they went for the Obama-Heller ticket,” Heller said.

Oh, really? Did he actually say that? This can't be the same Dean Heller who catered to every whim and fancy of the "tea party". So what happened?

Long story short: Heller became "Mr. 46%". And he now recognizes that Nevada is indeed a Blue State.

Jon Ralston could barely contain his disgust this morning. After all, Heller ran as Nevada's official "tea party" BFF for so long. Yet now, all of a sudden, he has so much respect for both President Obama and his new best friends in "The Obama-Heller Social Club"? Give Ralston a break.

He hates Obamacare, but he has Obamalove.

That's the latest incarnation of the ever-adaptable Dean Heller, the senator who just won election by 12,000 votes and now is marveling at the skills of the president who just won an electoral landlside.

Couldn't he have waited a decent interval to make it seem like a gradual evolution and not pure opportunism?

The maverick secretary of state who morphed into a far-rightie after Sharron Angle almost beat him six years ago and is now back to being Dean No Labels after another near-death experience is a clear case of nurture over nature.

What is his true nature? What does nurture him beyond the politics of the moment?

So at this point, who is Dean Heller? No really, who is he and what does he stand for? Does he stand by what he said last year and early this year, when he wanted to keep the radical right in his corner? Or is he genuinely interested in bipartisanship, cooperation, and (GASP!) moderation now?

Regardless of whether or not "The New & Improved Moderate, Post-partisan Dean Heller!" is for real, he again reveals the new political reality of Nevada. We are indeed a Blue State. And the only way Nevada Republicans can survive going forward is by adapting to this new reality. So will other Republicans follow Heller's example?

We'll have to wait and see... But in the mean time, don't be surprised if/when the "TEA" troops arise (again) to try to stop any kind of "moderation". Whatever happens in the Nevada GOP in the coming months, it won't go down without a fight.

Read His Lips, He Has to Govern

Last week, Governor Brian Sandoval reached an agreement with Amazon.com for Amazon to begin collecting Nevada sales taxes for all purchases made here in Nevada. It sounds simple enough. But beneath the surface, it's quite complicated.

Promising not to raise taxes — no how, no way, under any circumstance — might have seemed the smart political move for Brian Sandoval in 2010, when he was running in the Republican primary for governor.

But now that he’s running a state that is less than flush with tax dollars, he keeps bumping up against the line in the sand he drew as a candidate.

The latest is the agreement he reached with Amazon, under which the online retail giant will start collecting sales tax in 2014. Under the deal that Sandoval and his top staff personally struck with company executives during a meeting in the governor’s office earlier this year, Nevada will become just the seventh state to require the retailer to collect the tax.

The deal will be a $16 million-a-year coup for Nevada and was praised by the brick-and-mortar retailers as leveling the playing field with online companies, many of which don't collect the tax at all.

But it will also muddy one of his administration's talking points — that no Nevadan will pay more in taxes than they did when he came into office.

And that's something "Tea Party, Inc." will continue to scream about. Even in admitting the Amazon deal isn't really a "tax hike", Chuck Muth nonetheless complained that Sandoval was agreeing to yet another "tax hike". Once again, Nevada's "tea party" is mad as hell and refuses to take it any more... Even though these "tea partiers" can't even define "it".

OK, so maybe my last line was a bit harsh. But you know what's even harsher? Grover Norquist's tax pledge. For the last two decades, he's been boxing in Republican politicians across the country by forcing them to sign his no tax pledge, then threaten to turn them into rotten lying b-----ds if they cross him.

This is why Brian Sandoval is in a bind. He's been trying hard to erase his past of "tea party" flirtation by embracing what he had previously shunned and making the 2009/2011 "sunset tax" deal the new "middle of the road". But no matter how hard Sandoval tries to make the past go away, Grover Norquist and his Nevada henchman (Chuck Muth) always find a way to bring it back to the forefront.

This is why Sandoval has had to make so many backflips as of late. Even though Sandoval hasn't actually raised taxes, the Norquist-Muth tax pledge is so rigid and severe that even so much as a mere extension of a past tax increase, or an agreement with an online retailer to collect state sales taxes, leads to "The George Bush Dilemma". No wonder why Mitt Romney has had to shake his Etch-A-Sketch and veer hard to the radical right.

This is why Sandoval has to find excuses for what we once called "common sense governing". Because for Grover Norquist and company, "common sense governing" has become a crime. For them, even a corrupt "bailout happy" failed politician is better than an upstanding "moderate" who dares to cross their line on taxes.

Squeezed at the Middle? Or No Mo' Status Quo?

We've been talking for a while now about the increasingly complicated landscape of Carson City. Brian Sandoval may have shaken up that landscape with his embrace of the 2009/2011 "sunset tax" deal, but it's also led to some unintended consequences. Everyone's favorite "Angle-philes" emerged from their "hobbit cave" "undisclosed location" to hurl unhinged screeds at Brian Sandoval and Michael Roberson. But perhaps more importantly, Chuck Muth is now unleashing his harpies anger at "moderates" who dare to agree with their fellow Republican, Brian Sandoval, on maintaining the status quo.

So the primaries are coming at full force... Yet not all of them are coming from the right.

We've talked before about the precarious situation that John Lee has fallen into. Last weekend, Steve Sebelius talked with John Lee about his "moderate dilemma"... And his Republican (??!!) campaign manager.



And today, Pat Spearman appeared on News 3 Las Vegas' "The Agenda" to show that she's offering a progressive alternative.

(Start the video below at 12:00.)



Last year, Lee stood with Sandoval on the budget. But now, he's catching heat in his district over it. Lee is now championing community college reform and change in the state's funding formulae. However, Spearman flat out said that it wasn't enough.

So are we finally seeing an election cycle when it's not just the far right that complains about the status quo in Carson City?

I've been saying for some time that Brian Sandoval may have opened Pandora's Box by trying to stake "middle ground" to put away complaints from the right and from the left on the state budget. And the more I see this play out, the less I doubt my initial call. We'll just have to see what happens in June to see where this goes next.

Nightmare @ Central Committee (That Is, Mitt Romney's Worst Nightmare Come True)

Earlier this week on MSNBC, Rachel Maddow noted the still unfolding drama in the G-O-TEA primary. Even though all the rest of us consider it over and done for Mittens, Ron Paul's loyal band of followers still refuses to give up. And believe it or not, they're causing the Romney campaign more headaches than the DC pundits had originally expected.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

And the drama isn't limited to the Midwest. In fact, there's quite a bit of that right here in Nevada! Remember that lovely legal, organizational, and "small d democratic" EPIC FAIL that was the Nevada Republican Caucus?



Ron Paul's Nevada supporters haven't. And apparently, they're now out for revenge.

Apparently, Reno conservative blogger Orrin Johnson isn't just keeping track of the Nevada GOP's Michael McDonald-"G-Sting"-Real Estate Bailout scandal. (And apparently, the Ron Paul folks also had their hands in that.) He's also has some serious accusations against Ron Paul's operation.

I recently received an E-mail from a disaffected Ron Paul supporter that Nevada Paul Campaign Chair Carl Bunce recently sent out to his supporters. The long and the short of it is that it’s a battle plan which encourages Paul folks to lie to pollsters to “fool” the Romney campaign, in order to make it easier to shock-’n'-awe their way to a Ron Paul National Convention slate. It’s full of paranoia about information control (Hah! Fail!) and secrecy, with a nice dab of Personality Cult for Doctor Paul.

Well, secret’s out, you dishonest goofballs. Everyone knows your game. [...]

Don’t these people realize that if they had a winning message, they wouldn’t have the need for all the secrecy? Don’t they see what hypocrites they look like when they cry about dishonesty and lack of transparency in government? And remember, this isn’t just some independent Paul supporter. This IS the Ron Paul campaign, and Ron Paul himself is directly responsible for it. Either the Congressman is blind to these types of shenanigans, or he endorses it. Which is it, Good Doctor? Will you renounce this assault on actual liberty being perpetuated in your name? There’s certainly nothing “libertarian” about any of this.

Nevada Republicans were promised by their Central Committee that their caucus votes would be proportionally binding all the way through the first round of voting at the national convention. I have to wonder – if these Paul people wind up going to the national convention, will they honor that promise? Or will they just openly betray the Nevadans they claim to want to represent?

Just remember this – people willing to lie, cheat, or steal in order to get power will lie, cheat and steal once they’re in power. Even if you find Paul’s platform compelling, after this there’s no way you could trust he’d follow through with any of it.

Now here's the thing: This was never really a well kept secret. In fact, this was NOT a secret at all. Back in February, Rachel Maddow actually interviewed Ron Paul campaign senior advisor Doug Wead and had him explain on national TV what their campaign is doing.



The only thing that surprises me about this is that it took Nevada GOP insiders and Mitt Romney operatives this long to realize what's been happening under their noses all along. So not only does Mitt Romney's campaign have to worry about loose cannons raising hell instead of money for the Nevada Republican Party, but they now risk a major embarrassment next month in Sparks if Ron Paul operatives actually succeed in hijacking the convention. Remember, they already took over the Clark County Republican Party at its convention last month. Is the state party next (again)? And will Nevada's Republican National Convention delegation be delivering an unwelcome surprise to Tampa this summer?

Perhaps revenge really is a dish best served cold. In February, many of them were denied a chance to caucus. Now, they get to deny Mittens a clean and easy nomination.

What a Fool Believes: Is "Tea Party" Showing Double Standard for McDonald?

The Nevada GOP has taken quite a few hits this week over the election of former Las Vegas City Council Member Michael McDonald as its new Chairman. And I'm not the only one talking. Ralston had this to say.

I want all of you — especially Gov. Sandoval, Sen. Heller and Rep. Joe Heck — to imagine it is October. CNN is here. Fox and MSNBC, too. You turn on your TV to hear, “Joining us now, the chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, Michael McDonald.”

Do you:

A. Pray

B. Hold your breath

C. Both

As the Nevada Policy Research Institute said in a screed Tuesday: “You just can’t make this stuff up.” The conservative think tank was referring to McDonald’s latest juice job at City Hall, with NPRI correctly pointing out that McDonald has a pattern of questionable conduct. Indeed, McDonald almost was thrown out of office 11 years ago after the state Ethics Commission found “his loyalty to his employer motivated him to assist (his private sector boss) in attempting to overcome a difficult financial situation by using access to staff and other members of the City Council (which an ordinary member of the public would not have) and lobbying them to take action which would benefit (his boss) and, therefore, himself. ... There was absolutely no evidence that the action Councilman McDonald was advocating ... was a good economic deal for the City of Las Vegas and in the public’s interest.”

Some things don’t change. The ex-councilman’s history neuters him when it comes to assailing Democrats on anything. McDonald is not just a flawed messenger; he is a fatally flawed messenger.

Maybe Michael McDonald is right in arguing that no one will pay any attention to him, that he will unify the party and that he will lead the GOP to smashing victories in November. Or maybe, as Michael McDonald also once said, that’s what a fool believes.

But perhaps the most searing indictment of the Nevada GOP for this move comes from one of its own, Orrin Johnson, who had this to say about his party's new leader.

Taken in the kindest possible light, new GOP Chair Michael McDonald’s past and current “property development” activities proves that he’s all for government-forced redistribution of wealth. A more honest assessment would be that he’s all about brazenly using positions of political power to enrich himself and/or his friends at taxpayer expense to the tune of millions of dollars.

Either way, he’s EVERYTHING the Tea Party Movement – and conservatism generally – is supposed to be against. And yet he was elected supposedly as the tea party, anti-establishment, “true conservative” option to chair the Nevada Republican Party. How did this happen?

The Nevada State GOP began hemorrhaging credibility back in October. With McDonald’s election, they’ve officially eliminated it completely. This will end badly for the state party, and for any politician stupid enough to get to close to Mr. McDonald. When it does, I just hope there are enough Republicans left untainted by this to save the conservative movement from total irrelevance for the foreseeable future.

Again, that's from a Republican! And hey, I at least have to give both Orrin Johnson and NPRI some credit in calling out their own.

However, do you remember the last time some "tea party" Republicans called out one of their own? Come on now, you must. It was only in February when none other than Chuck Muth took down Elizabeth Halseth and her political career by airing her dirty laundry. It was quite the sight to behold, since earlier that year he honored her as one of his "true conservative" stars.

Now as I said in February, Halseth made her dirty laundry into a legitimate problem by fleeing the state and her duties as a Nevada Legislator over it. And it only made things worse that she campaigned on "moral values" while failing to practice what she preached.

Back then, I gave Chuck Muth kudos for being honest about a politician he once backed. So why won't he do the same now? He's been a relentless cheerleader for Michael McDonald despite his sleazy "land deals cum bailouts" and "G-Sting" history. In fact, he's now attacking Orrin Johnson for simply pointing out the obvious! So Elizabeth Halseth was in the wrong for letting her affair with Tiger Helgelien get in the way of her public duty, but it's perfectly OK for newly elected Nevada Republican Party Chairman Michael McDonald to cheat Las Vegas taxpayers and still refuse to apologize for his role in "G-Sting"?

And folks wonder why Nevada Republicans always seem to be in trouble?

Sorry, but this looks to me like a double standard. If Elizabeth Halseth had to face consequences for her ethical lapses, then so should Michael McDonald. I'm just perplexed as to why Chuck Muth can't see what all the rest of us see, especially since McDonald's line of "business" flies in the face of what the "tea party" is supposed to be about.

Oh, what a fool believes...

Meet the New Nevada GOP Chairman (Or What a Fool Believes)

And looky here, none other than the hacks "esteemed luminaries" at NPRI are out to give Nevada Republican Party Chair Michael McDonald a proper introduction.

In April 2009, the city council gave McDonald a sweetheart deal, selling him a 3.9-acre parcel of land for $1.3 million. They did so with full knowledge that McDonald planned to immediately spin off the property to a supermarket chain for $3.1 million — netting himself a quick $1.8 million by shorting taxpayers on the value of their land.

Moreover, McDonald was convicted of violating city ethics laws involving another land deal that he pushed for while a member of the city council in 2000.

Redevelopment financing is an area where those with political connections routinely exploit low-income taxpayers. However, the city council's current deal with their ethics-challenged former colleague — against the advice of city staff — blatantly rubs salt in the eyes of citizens.

And just recently, we saw this.

That's when Las Vegas city council members voted to award their former colleague Michael McDonald $3.5 million in redevelopment funds, as well as $1.1 million in federal grant funding to subsidize the cost of constructing a downtown housing development that will include some "affordable" housing units for seniors. McDonald was also awarded a 75-year land lease — worth $1.4 million in present value — for just one dollar.

City council members voted to approve the project even though city staff recommended they not do so.

Staff noted that the city's subsidy alone would amount to more than $115,000 per unit. (McDonald's estimates were much lower — about $65,000 each for the first 60 units — although, once the state subsidies sought by McDonald are factored in, total taxpayer support would amount to $183,000 per unit.) Yet the median value of existing homes in the surrounding area is only $72,000.

Oh, jeez. This may be the first (and perhaps ONLY) time I quote a NPRI publication!

So basically, Michael McDonald ran into quite a bit of trouble while he was on the Las Vegas City Council. And even though he's no longer on it, he's still using his "juice" at City Hall to get sweetheart deals. And now, he's the Chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, the party of crazy anti-government teabaggers "NO BIG GUV'MINT! NO BALE-OWTZZZ!!!"



But wait, there's more!

Yesterday, former City Councilman Michael McDonald was elected as the Chairman of the Nevada State Republican Party Central Committee replacing former Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian, who stepped down the day after the Nevada Republican caucuses in February.

Former Las Vegas City Councilman Michael McDonald has a very checkered past, he was connected to one of the biggest FBI sting operations in Las Vegas history, which was dubbed the “G-Sting”.

The “G-Sting” involved organized crime, strip clubs, politicians and the FBI. And Michael McDonald was front and center, giving advice to his “boyhood friend” and owner of the strip clubs Michael Galardi, who owned Jaguars, Cheetahs and Masters strip clubs.

Remember G-Sting? Apparently, Nevada Republicans don't. Either that, or they followed Chuck Muth's advice to not care about that pesky, minor stuff.

What a fool believes...

So Who's Left at the Center of It All?

On Monday, KSNV's "The Agenda" took on what's becoming a big issue in Carson City: Who's taking "the middle ground" on taxes? And really, where is "the middle ground" on taxes?

(Start watching at 10:30 below.)



We know how Brian Sandoval has been dancing on this, but there are other players who will be playing key roles here. For one, the renewed focus on C-Tax issues has brought Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) back into the spotlight. After all, his committee has been holding hearings on this very issue. He also recently penned a Sun op-ed on community college reform. He's been getting out front on these issues.



However, controversy has also been catching up to him. California has flatly ruled out the kind of deregulation of Lake Tahoe that Lee spearheaded last year. He's also caught heat over his opposition to marriage equality, domestic partnerships, and transgender inclusive ENDA. But perhaps most importantly, John Lee initially agreed with Brian Sandoval's "no new tax" position until the Nevada Supreme Court's late May ruling completely reset the 2011 budget negotiations. So now, he's getting a primary challenge from Pat Spearman... And Nevada AFL-CIO is now signaling it won't fall in line behind John Lee.

Earlier today, Steve Sebelius joked on Twitter that "it's tough out there for a moderate". John Lee is starting to feel that. However, not all the primary action is happening on the Democratic side.

Rather, there's even more primary drama to be found among Nevada Republicans. Remember, the "tea party" here still feels betrayed after falling for Sandoval. So now, it looks like they're lashing out at him, Senate GOP Leader Michael Roberson, and all the Assembly & Senate GOP Caucus endorsed candidates who refuse to sign the Chuck Muth/Grover Norquist tax pledge. In fact, we're now seeing GOP Assembly and Senate primaries across the state turn hot over this. Even Pat Hickey, the incoming Assembly GOP leader that Muth once seemed to like, is now falling out of favor with Nevada's "Tea Party, Inc."

Just as I had suspected back in March, this is turning out to be much more complicated than Brian Sandoval's PR team had initially thought. They just figured Sandoval could simultaneously "claim the middle ground", help his favored Republican candidates in swing districts, and fend off calls for comprehensive, progressive tax reform, by agreeing to the sunset tax deal yet again. However, it's starting to look like Sandoval may have stirred a real hornet's nest in doing this. While Sandoval may yet succeed in claiming at least some "middle ground" for himself on the budget and taxes, moderates in both parties are now feeling the heat as the grassroots on neither side likes the politics or the policy behind the tax deal that Sandoval now owns.

Ah, the law of unintended consequences...

(The Need for Change Is) Still at the Center of It All

Yesterday, Governor Brian Sandoval razzle-dazzled the far right wing of the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex with his moving speech. Really, do you need me to tell you what he said?

Economic development is “a contact sport,” Sandoval said Wednesday during a speech at the Silverton for members of the Keystone Corporation, a conservative anti-tax business group. “If we want to be in the game, we have to have a cutting-edge approach.”

Earlier this year, Sandoval unveiled a new state economic development plan that relies on regional development authorities and “industry specialists” who will work with specific business sectors to increase exports, research and development.

Wow. I wonder what's "cutting-edge" about Sandoval's approach. Could it be? Could it possibly be... Oh, never mind.

Gov. Brian Sandoval today told conservative business group Keystone Corporation that his decision to support a two-year extension of taxes that were scheduled to expire eliminates the need for any new taxes to balance the state budget.

The governor received a standing ovation from the large gathering of business and political leaders at the Silverton in Las Vegas when he said he will block any new business taxes.

Of course, that isn't stopping the G-O-TEA wing of Sandoval's party from screaming "SELLOUT!!!" over his decision to extend the 2009/2011 "sunset tax" deal. And really, that's the point. By basking in the glow of "Bid'ness Establishment" praise while fending off nasty-grams from the likes of Chuck Muth and NPRI, Sandoval looks so "moderate" and "reasonable" by comparison.

But seriously, how "reasonable" is continuing the status quo? Can we really handle any more "moderate" solutions to the serious problems crippling our state's economy?

Brian Sandoval claims he took his new position on the budget because he doesn't want to cut education funding any more. OK, that's a start. But still, that's not enough to fix what's fundamentally wrong with our state. Jim Rogers clearly pointed that out last week.

One must question the timing of Sandoval’s pledge to education, especially during an election year. The governor may simply be posturing when he says, "no more cuts to education.” When push comes to shove, he certainly will follow the Republican party line to destroy public education. Education has little or no blood left. For all practical purposes, public education is dead in Nevada and Sandoval’s promise not to take the last half pint of blood is meaningless.

The governor is delusional if he believes the education community does not know he is anti-public education. Politicians have their own set of rules for truthfulness. That is, there are no rules. A politician will say anything on day one and just the opposite on day two and will actually believe that the day two statement will control and that no one will remember the previous contradictory statement. Sandoval has done everything possible to eliminate Nevada’s public education system. He now seems to believe that with a little play on words the public will forget what he has done.

Nailed it.

No, really. Look at CCSD trustees fighting with teachers over cost-of-living increases and education benefits. Look at WCSD Chief Heath Morrison fleeing to North Carolina taking over Charlotte's schools and leaving Northern Nevada behind. Nevada, we have a problem. And no, "moderate" looking continuation of the status quo won't do anything to solve it.

Brian Sandoval's BFF Monte Miller recently dropped his tax initiatives because he's satisfied that Sandoval and the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex want to continue the status quo. And remember, the status quo has only been delivering failure. The status quo is limiting our potential for future growth, development, and improvement.

Seriously, we can't afford any more of the status quo. At least the Nevada AFL-CIO seems to understand that. Maybe it really will take a full throated call to justice for Nevada's 99% to finally get some badly needed change.

#NVLeg & The Taxing Conversation

I guess The R-J tried to redeem itself today (after posting its FAIL-o-rific Legislature "election analysis" on Monday) by posting this much more thoughtful and insightful piece on SD 11. Aaron Ford ran as the Democratic nominee in SD 12 (against Doc Hardy) in 2010, but this time he's in much safer waters in the race to replace Mike Schneider in the new SD 11 that runs from Spring Valley to Southwest Vegas. He's the Senate Democratic Caucus pick, so one would think he'd have a much easier ride this time...

But alas, this time he has trouble in the Democratic Primary. Harry Mortenson may be 81 years old, but that isn't stopping him from dreaming big, thinking aloud, and running for the Senate seat that covers much of the turf he represented in the Assembly for 14 years. But funny enough, the biggest wedge between Mortenson and Ford (who, by the way, is 39) probably won't be age. Instead, it looks to be taxes. Yes, you heard me right. Ford seems to be willing to wait and see how Brian Sandoval's tax extension plan works out in the next year, while Mortenson believes we just need to implement a corporate income tax already so we can have more fairness and reliable income streams in our budget.

But wait, there's more.

On Monday, Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) ran into huge trouble when Jon Ralston called him to the mat for his flip-flop on the sunset taxes (that Brian Sandoval now wants to extend indefinitely) on "Face to Face".



This morning, Ralston ripped him a new one on his inconsistent and insincere "change of heart".

First, Brower told me Sandoval wanted to “take advantage of the revenue sunset taxes would bring, and I support him in that.” Solidly, it seemed.

But just a few moments later, his feet of clay on the issue became evident when pressed: “This is just at the planning phase. We haven’t voted on anything yet. Nothing is final.” And then the coup de lack of grace: “This takes the issue off the table in terms of politics.”

Governor, about those troops behind you: Ever heard of friendly fire?

Brower’s rhetorical peregrinations then took him to reaffirm his support for the governor and promise not to cut education. But he also said this is just “for planning purposes,” and when asked about committing to extend the taxes, replied, “No one has committed to that. What we’ve supported is the governor’s idea to plan to have the revenues.”

Really?

The governor’s office’s reaction was unequivocal: “In order to avoid cuts to education and other essential services, revenues from the sunset taxes will need to be continued.” Sandoval seems ... committed.

During the interview, Brower told me about the clear contrast he will have with Leslie. But if they both support extending taxes and both oppose education cuts, where’s the big difference? And while we know where Leslie will vote on almost any tax increase, how do we know which Greg Brower will cast a vote?

Good point, Mr. Ralston. Good point.

And this is what we've been talking about all along. Is Brian Sandoval's newfound embrace of the sunset taxes just a political stunt meant to blunt Democratic candidates' talking points on education funding and outside grassroots campaigns for tax initiatives on the ballot? And even if Sandoval is sincere about providing a more robust and reliable stream of public education funding, will Chuck Muth, NPRI, and their army of "tea party" culture warriors ever really allow for enough moderation in the Republican Caucus to allow for a grown-up conversation on taxes and responsible budgeting?

Greg Brower managed on Monday to expose several "dirty little secrets" that Sandoval's inner circle would rather bot discuss. And unfortunately for them, Ralston is taking pleasure in raising a stink about it.

But oddly enough, this and Mortenson's candor are renewing my hope. Why? Let me explain.

Governor Sandoval and his PR team had expected to destroy all honest debate on tax reform with their "surprise sunrise of the sunset taxes". But if Republican candidates like Brower suggest they're not really meaning what Pete Ernaut wants them to say, and if Democratic candidates like Harry Mortenson and Pat Spearman keep raising hell on the left over real tax reform, and if tax initiative backers refuse to stand down on their efforts to pull some "ballot box budgeting" that goes against Carson City conventional wisdom, then can Brian Sandoval keep acting like there's nothing for us to see or discuss?

Maybe it was premature to declare tax reform "dead" after all. Greg Brower's constant flip-flopping should serve as a reminder to Team Sandoval that "Tea Party, Inc." won't go down on "Sunrise to Sunsets" without a fight. And Brower's flip-flopping should serve as a reminder to us that we won't ever realize a stable budget and sound governance until we have an honest conversation on bringing Nevada's tax code into the 21st century once and for all. Brian Sandoval may be trying to bring back the era of "bipartisan" budgetary gimmicks, but perhaps those on the left, right, and center can still ultimately conspire to declare that era of Nevada history over.

As the #NVLeg Primaries Turn

In January, it looked like Nevada Democrats were starting the new year in a shaky position... At least when it came to the state of play in Carson City. HOA scandal plagued Senator Allison Copening (D-Las Vegas) decided not to run for reelection in the new SD 6, followed by Senator Shirley Breeden (D-Henderson) deciding not to run for reelection in the new SD 5 because of family health issues. Around this time, Nevada's pundit class expected Democrats to remain in defense mode and struggle to maintain the Senate majority.

However in February, everything seemed to change. Up north, Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) shocked the pundits by announcing her campaign in the new SD 15 this year against appointed Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno). Brower was expecting to coast to reelection, but the competitive nature of the district and the new competition forced him to flip-flop on his past anti-tax positions and switch from "tea party" allegiance to full on "moderation". Meanwhile down south, the growing chorus of questions on the whereabouts of Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise) to resign her SD 9 seat, triggering a special election in what's now a Democratic leaning district. All of a sudden, G-O-TEA plans to reclaim control of Carson City hit a real snag. And if that wasn't frustrating enough for Legislature Republican leaders, the entry of moderate Democrat (and wife of a certain Las Vegas City Council Member) Kelli Ross into the SD 18 race put that district into play and further complicated GOP efforts to grow its ranks in Carson City.

So far this month, the dynamics of the #NVLeg campaign seem to be shifting yet again. Until this month, the pundit class was mostly focusing on the general election fight for control of the State Senate. However, a unique series of events turned attention to the primary. When Governor Brian Sandoval (R) announced his support for extending again the sunsets on the 2009/2011 tax deal, he wanted to make the Nevada GOP reclaim the middle ground and look more appealing to moderate voters. Instead, his move and Senate GOP Leader Michael Roberson's (R-Henderson) flip-flop on the tax sunsets enraged the "tea party" base and led Nevada "Tea Party, Inc." leader Chuck Muth to begin attacking them on his blog. And now, it looks like Muth is taking sides against incumbent GOP Assembly Member Kelly Kite (R-Minden) and against the Senate GOP Caucus endorsed candidates in SD 5 (Henderson-Green Valley) and SD 18 (Northwest Las Vegas), causing even more headaches for Republican leadership.

However, not all the primary action is on the right. Also in SD 18, former PTA President and current Democratic candidate Donna Schlemmer declined to step aside when Kelli Ross announced for that district, which seemed to encourage a number of local progressives concerned about the Ross' Blue Dog leanings. And last week in SD 1, nearly everyone (moiself included!) was shocked to find that not only was John Lee getting a primary challenge, but he's now having to endure a fierce campaign against a surprisingly strong candidate in Pat Spearman, as well as a growing coalition of LGBTQ equality activists, environmentalists, education advocates, union activists, and other progressives looking for a different voice to fill that seat. The R-J posted an interview with John Lee this morning, and he tried hard to make a case for his (relatively) conservative voting record making a good fit for the reliably Democratic SD 1. And with Assembly Member and aspiring Assembly Speaker Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) catching heat for cozying up to the Fertitta family (while unions coalesce behind Culinary 226 to take on Station Casinos) and mining industry lobbyists (including going on a trip with them to Brazil last year), some progressives are feeling freer to eschew the Assembly Caucus endorsement list in supporting other Assembly candidates running in the Democratic primary.

Until recently, most political insiders described Nevada as a "one party state" in that whoever was in power completely subscribed to "the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" party line. However this year, it's starting to look like change is in the air. Not only has the political landscape changed for the November general election, but we're also seeing a number of interesting races pop up for the June primary. "Tea Party" madness still looks to be alive and well on the Republican side, and Muth & Co. really look to be emerging as a serious thorn on the side to Republican leadership. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, progressives look to be speaking up and making more of an effort to challenge the "middle of the road" status quo.

It's increasingly looking like there will be real reason for us to vote in June, and that's not really a bad thing. Primaries are just another part of the "small d" democratic process. They'll never totally be done away with, regardless of some party officials' wishes and hopes and prayers. And they'll give Nevada voters more choices, and perhaps even some real choices.

All About Brian (When He's Not Even on the Ballot This Year?)

This morning, Anjeanette Damon has a Sun article on the continuing speculation on Governor Brian Sandoval's national aspirations. Honestly, I think Grover Norquist put that to rest last week.

So now, attention turns to what Sandoval will do next year. His surprise announcement on extending the 2009 tax deal indefinitely (right after Grover Norquist dissed him!) seems to have reshaped the dynamics of this year's race for the Legislature. Both David Schwartz and Jon Ralston pontificate on how it affects Republican Legislature candidates. Ralston seems to think that this helps Republicans in retaking the middle of the road, but Schwartz did note frustration from his former BFFs in Muth-land and NPRI.

And speaking of Muth, he's acting like a scorned lover (and quoting me!) in his rebuke of Roberson's rebuke of Grover Norquist. And earlier last week, he dared to go there in calling out Roberson's flip-flop on the sunset taxes. But ultimately, his anger is being directed at Sandoval for making permanent his flip-flop on the sunset taxes. Both Roberson and Sandoval may be leaving the "tea party" high and dry, but will Muth & Co. let them get away with it? Remember that there are a number of hot GOP primaries in Legislature races across the state. And no attempt at spinning the sunset extension as just another take on "no new taxes" will be enough to stop Nevada's arm of "Tea Party, Inc." from gathering more pledges and running scorched earth primaries. As we've talked about before, the Nevada Republican Party in 2012 holds Sharron Angle in much higher regard ("SHE'S PURE!!!") than Kenny Guinn ("He was LIB'RUL!!!") or Bill Raggio ("He was also LIB'RUL!!!"), so we'll see if "the base" reacts kindly to Sandoval's sunset switch-er-roo.

And considering the base reaction (pun intended?) to Sandoval's announcement, just what will actually happen in the Legislature next year? As we discussed last month, it largely depends on who controls the State Senate chambers. In fact, I still suspect that even after Sandoval's move, a Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson would have to do a whole lot of heavy lifting just to get Sandoval's budget passed.

But if Democrats retain the Senate majority, and especially if the Senate Democratic caucus grows this year, Sandoval will have fewer opportunities to work with the G-O-TEA faction in the Legislature for some sort of deal that exchanges the 2009 tax deal extension for more "tea party" legislation being enacted. Instead, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Caucus that's had to pay more attention to the growing chorus in favor of bold, progressive tax reform. In fact, David Schwartz had another Sun article today on the painful reality of recent state budget cuts.

A 1-year-old with Down syndrome had his every-other-week physical therapy cut in half after the state told his parents there wasn’t money for more frequent sessions.

The state would not pay for a 2-year-old with speech and cognitive disabilities to see therapists more than twice a month. Again officials cited the battered state budget.

A 2-year-old with Down syndrome had her sign language lessons and occupational and physical therapy appointments reduced by half. And instead of being seen at home, her parents take her to a clinic.

These cases and others, detailed in a complaint against the state, triggered an internal state investigation last month. Together they reveal a troubling fact about the impact of Nevada’s austere budget: Services to the state’s youngest children are being curtailed and sometimes not provided at all because of a lack of funds.

About 250 children, from newborns to 3-year-olds, are on waiting lists for such services. For the 2,447 children who are in the state’s program, plans for therapy are often limited, the investigation found. The complaint was brought by the Nevada Disability Advocacy and Law Center.

Now remember, Brian Sandoval is only talking about "flattening" the budget. He doesn't want to restore what was cut in 2009 and 2011. But as our population grows and social service caseloads remain high (due to the continued aftershocks of "The Great Recession"), "flattening" is far from enough to keep up with what our state actually needs.

This is why Sandoval's shift on the sunsets probably won't dampen calls to reform Nevada's tax code. We'll have to wait and see which petitions go out for which initiatives, but it's still looking likely we'll see signature gathering outside our local grocery stores soon.

And in the mean time, there will be pressure on Democrats not to give into Sandoval so easily and so soon. We're about to see a spirited primary contest in the new SD 1 because John Lee often strengthened Republicans' hands in Carson City (by often breaking away from Democratic ranks at the most inopportune time). And if this primary challenge catches fire, Sheila Leslie's campaign gains steam in SD 15, and SD 9 changes hands, it may just be "the perfect storm" that may really test Sandoval's ability to stay in the middle of the road.

So even though Brian Sandoval may not be on the ballot this year, he still looks to play a large role in this year's election. How he navigates the early stage of the budget process can affect what happens this year. And what happens in the election this year will ultimately determine how Sandoval will govern next year.

Who's Afraid of Kermitt Waters?

He's brilliant. He's edgy. He's visionary. He's radical. And perhaps he's managed to bring folks together (while simultaneously driving away powerful players on the left and on the right) in a way that hardly anyone else has.



He's Kermitt Waters, and he wants to lower your taxes... Unless, that is, you're a multinational corporation looking for an "onshore tax shelter" here in Nevada. If that's the case, watch out.

But before Waters can even launch a campaign for his tax initiative, he has to sue in court to strike down the state statute that's been holding him back. And he's formed a strange alliance on this law suit, one that actually scares some local progressives. (I'll explain this later.)

On Saturday, I finally had a chance to meet Mr. Waters myself and ask him the questions that I sense many Nevadans have been wanting to ask. I started with what I thought was the most obvious: Why bring forth such a complicated and radical restructuring of Nevada's entire state budget that openly violates the single subject rule that only allows for an initiative to address one policy matter? Waters gave me a simple deadpan of an answer: "You want to give me $500,000?"

Waters complained about how expensive it is to push a ballot initiative. This led me to my next question: Why do this? Isn't this why we have a Legislature? Again, he gave a clear and concise answer: "Gaming and mining own The Legislature." He then went on to express his deep distrust of pretty much anyone and everyone in Carson City, and especially of what he considers the center of "booze, broads, and bribes". It seems that he's felt the same frustration with the way business is done in Carson City that most voters in Nevada (and especially Clark County) feel... But he's taking it to another level in threatening their power over perhaps the biggest decision made there, which is the one made every two years on the state budget.

Waters and I then went back to the matter of his law suit. He sounded especially frustrated over The Legislature intervening in the law suit, as well as Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) sending this law suit to federal court.

I then asked about the other big elephant in the room: Is Kermitt Waters about to open a "Pandora's Box" of "tea party" crazy by making it easier for the likes of Chuck Muth and Richard Ziser to unleash the full radical right wish list, from TABOR to zygote personhood to domestic partnership repeal and more, on our ballots? After all, it's impossible that Chuck Muth is backing Waters' law suit because he likes Waters' tax plan. (Remember that if Waters wins this law suit, a precedent is set that will allow virtually everyone else to start collecting signatures to put whatever one wants on the ballot.) So what was Waters' answer? Simple: "If you don't like it, beat it at the damned polls. Don't kill the goose. Just beat them at the polls."

It's interesting. Kermitt Waters may be very cynical and pessimistic when it comes to the death of good policy caused by the people running Nevada's government, but he sounds hopeful and downright optimistic about the triumph of good policy among the people voting in Nevada elections. It sounded like he genuinely believes Nevada will be better off with more of the California/Arizona style direct democracy regularly practiced there than with what we have now.

OK, so Kermitt Waters likes direct democracy. But again, why pursue this long, complicated initiative when there are simpler initiatives floating around that are not being challenged in court? When I asked about the AFL-CIO's proposed business margin tax, Waters flatly dismissed it. "It's a waste of time. In three years, they'll take it off." And since the AFL-CIO proposal is just a statute instead of a constitutional amendment, he thinks it may face the same fate in the hands of The Legislature that the Nevada Clean Indoor Air Act has experienced. Waters pretty much said the same thing about Monte Miller's proposed gaming and mining tax initiatives when I asked about those.

At this point, Kermitt Waters then dropped a bomb on me. He told me that other progressive organizations did not want to work with him on his initiative, and that they didn't want to touch this because of his association with Chuck Muth, and because they fear Waters' victory in court would lead to the likes of Muth and Ziser throwing the entire "tea party" wish list on Nevada ballots in a matter of no time.

When I asked him if the concerns of other progressives should be noted, Waters stood behind his plan. "We're trying to accomplish something. We'll get nothing done if we don't [change the rules on initiatives]. We'll all starve to death if we don't let someone get two hamburgers. This is just insane."

Now before I wrap this up, I want to give a reminder of what's at stake with Waters' initiative. If Kermitt Waters succeeds, his initiative will:

- Eliminate the property tax for single family homes

- Establish a 20% levy on mining companies

- Set up a gross receipts tax on businesses earning over $1 million a month

AND

- Use the new revenues to set up a fund separate from the state's general fund (so legislators and the Governor can't use any of this new money to cover everything else in the general fund and/or pay for new tax cuts somewhere else) to pay for a new system of Nevada appeals courts, increased investment in public education, more renewable energy investment, expanded health care coverage, and more.

Honestly, this is why I've personally been at conflict with myself on this. And this is why I was willing to meet with Kermitt Waters himself last weekend to hear his side of the story.

I personally believe Kermitt Waters is genuine in his desire to remake Nevada Government, and especially Nevada's broken budget process, for the better. And when glancing at everything in Waters' initiative, from renewable energy investment to public education investment to generating the new revenue our state so desperately needs, it really does read like a progressive's wish list come true.

However, I can also see that Waters' route isn't the only route that progressives have to use to enact needed reforms to our budget and our tax system. That's why later this week, we'll be looking at the other progressive tax proposal making waves: the AFL-CIO's. We'll probably also do more analysis, along with some needed comparison & contrast, on both initiatives later this week.

In talking with Kermitt Waters, I can see why he's become feared in recent years. He may be dismissed at times as a "gadfly", but he truly does have the determination to follow through on his fights. We'll have to see how far he wants to go on this one.