And It's Back!

Just minutes ago, the Nevada Supreme Court issued its ruling on The Education Initiative. And public education activists can now rejoice.

In a unanimous opinion issued Thursday, justices rejected arguments that the petition was flawed. It will now go to the 2013 Legislature, and more likely to voters in 2014.

The measure was pushed by the state teachers union and other labor groups. They argued it would raise $800 million a year for education and supporters gathered more than 150,000 signatures to send the proposal to state lawmakers.

But a pro-business organization challenged the measure, arguing a required 200-word description of what it would do was misleading because it doesn’t guarantee more money for education.

Justices, however, said the description need not articulate every possible ramification.

Frankly, I'm surprised. While I felt the district court ruling would be overturned, I wasn't expecting a unanimous decision. This definitely settles the legal issues for good. Education activists can now look forward to the next step, which starts next week.

We've discussed the legal case against The Education Initiative before. It was truly quite flimsy. Basically, "Tea Party, Inc." lawyers were hoping to trap it in a "legal Catch 22" where its efforts to abide by Nevada's "single subject rule" actually disqualified it. I guess Nevada's Supremes were having none of it.

But now comes a bigger hurdle. Next week, the 77th session of the Nevada Legislature begins. And legislators will have to decide what to do with this initiative. If they approve, then it becomes law this year. But if they don't approve the specific language of this initiative, it will go to "We the People" on next year's general election ballot.

Already, some legislators are sounding queasy about it. Too bad. "We the People" seem to same the kind of tax reform offered by this initiative (as opposed to the usual deform offered by the Legislature). And the facts on the ground dictate that we must do a better job of investing in our people.

So either legislators will need to think hard about what the Nevada Supreme Court is handing them... Or they will have to explain to voters next year why they are punting to us. Either way, we will finally see an opportunity to start fixing Nevada's broken public infrastructure and failed tax code. And that's something progressives can be thankful for today.

The Education Initiative Goes to Court

There's certainly been plenty of speculation regarding "the t word" and just how seriously it will be considered in Carson City next spring. But while we wait for that, the Nevada Supreme Court will decide the fate of The Education Initiative. Earlier today, the court heard oral arguments. And believe it or not, progressives wanting real tax reform may (again) have reason to hope.

Justice James Hardesty, however, showed little patience for the game of hypotheticals, questioning how many possible scenarios need to be included in the 200-word description of what the initiative petition would do if enacted.

He questioned whether [anti-Education Initiative lawyer Josh] Hicks’ argument relied on “a hypothetical that the Legislature will or won’t do something with that extra billion bucks.”

“Where does this end,” Hardesty said. “I think these hypotheticals just go on forever.”

The lawyer for the education initiative, Frank Flaherty, also argued Hicks was relying on simple “speculation.”

I've always found the anti's argument as a silly Catch 22. So by obeying the law and abiding by the single subject rule, The Education Initiative is deceptive and violates the law? Seriously, is this their entire case? I'm glad I'm not the only one finding this ludicrous.

The latest credible estimates have shown the initiative capable of raising an additional $800 million if passed. It may ultimately raise as much as $1 billion for Nevada schools. And since it's asking the largest corporations doing business here in Nevada to pay something closer to their fair share, it's polled quite well. As I've suggested before, this may be the real reason why it's being challenged in court.

But at least now, the Nevada Supreme Court has actually heard both sides of this case. And a ruling will likely be issued well before the Legislature wraps up next year. And if the Court decides to overturn Judge James Wilson's ruling that invalidated the initiative, then the Legislature will have to consider it in the 77th session. And if the Legislature fails to approve the proposal within 40 days, the initiative will go directly to voters in 2014.

So now, the ball is really in their Court.

First Thoughts on Court's First Draft Redistricting Maps

Earlier this afternoon, we caught a first glimpse at Judge Russell's panel's first draft of redistricting maps.

Incumbent Rep. Joe Heck’s congressional seat would have more Democrats than Republicans and one central Las Vegas congressional district would be almost 43 percent Hispanic, according to maps released by the Nevada District Court today.

The masters decided against drawing a district with a majority of Hispanic voters, as Republicans wanted.

“The Special Masters concluded that bloc voting by the white majority was not shown to usually defeat a minority’s preferred candidate,” they wrote.

The three “special masters” appointed by Judge Todd Russell drew the maps after holding hearings and taking public testimony this week.

So here's what we know so far about the new districts (demographic info here, Clark County closeup here) :

- NV-01 is now 42.8% Latino (in general population I believe, not VAP) and centered in Las Vegas' urban core. Its voter registration breakdown is 52% Democrats to 25% Republicans.

- NV-02 now narrows to Greater Carson-Reno and Northern Nevada. Its voter registration breakdown is 42% Republican to 35% Democratic.

- NV-03 narrows to mostly just the Southwest side of the valley and Henderson-Boulder, along with some of Summerlin and all of the southern rurals (Searchlight and Laughlin). It's 40% Dem and 37% GOP.

- And NV-04, the brand spanking new district, takes in Ely and Tonopah, then gallops its way down to Clark County to take most of North Las Vegas, the Northwest end of the valley, and Summerlin. It's 46% Dem and 33% GOP.

So far, it looks like Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen, and Barbara Cegavske all live in the new NV-01, while Mark Amodei lives in the new NV-02, Joe Heck and John Oceguera live in the new NV-03, and Steven Horsford and John Lee live in the new NV-04. And so far, it looks like Horsford may get to breathe a nice sigh of relief, Kihuen gets to do a good fist pump, and the rest have huge political headaches awaiting them.

Tomorrow morning, I'll have more analysis of this late breaking development... But in the mean time, here are my quick observations:

- Judge Russell probably dodged a HUGE legal bullet, as his panel split the difference on the Voting Rights Act issue by giving NV-01 sizable Latino influence without unduly packing it.

- Nevada Democrats overall dodged HUGE political bullets in getting two safe Dem Congressional seats, along with a State Senate map that favors Democrats (more on that later, too!).

- However, two particular Clark County Democrats will have to bite painful bullets. Dina Titus' base is now split between NV-01 and NV-03, so she will have to choose whether to fight a bloody primary with Ruben Kihuen in NV-01 or agree to challenge Joe Heck again in NV-03. And if she chooses the latter, then John Oceguera had better watch out.

- At this point, Nevada Republicans look to be the biggest losers. Joe Heck is far from safe in the new NV-03, NV-04 looks quite out of reach from them, the State Senate will probably be less likely to flip with Shirley Breeden's and Alison Copening's districts made more Democratic (along with Elizabeth Halseth's too, haha!), and the Assembly still looks firmly out of reach for them as well.

And unless the Nevada Supreme Court somehow decides to invalidate this map, which I see as increasingly unlikely (judging by their recent smoke signals in letting this panel call the shots for now), these new Congressional and Legislature maps are probably here to stay. And so far, I'm mostly liking what I'm seeing. Let the games begin!

Surprise! Nevada Supremes Asked to Take on Redistricting

Sooner or later, this was bound to happen... However, it is happening in a funny way. Take it way, Mr. Secretary...

Secretary of State Ross Miller has asked the Nevada Supreme Court to enter the legal battle over redistricting, arguing that the Carson City judge in charge of the lawsuit over how the state should redraw its political boundaries has “impermissibly abdicated” his duty to decide legal issues critical to the case.

In an emergency writ filed with the supreme court this afternoon, Miller accused Carson District Judge James Todd Russell of failing to “resolve many of the critical legal issues that will directly impact how the maps must be drawn.”

After a lengthy hearing last month, Russell ordered three special masters to redraw the state’s congressional, assembly and senate boundaries. While Russell set the legal perimeters the masters must use to redraw the lines, he failed to rule on any of the questions brought up by both Republicans and Democrats.

Many pundits had expected one or the other of the major parties to appeal a map that overly favored the other side, but this is quite the curveball. However, it's certainly a justified one. I still can't wrap my head around Judge Russell punting pretty much everything from the Voting Rights Act to proper population divisions to this panel of special masters he's hellbent on creating. There's a reason why this case is in his court, yet Judge Russell doesn't seem all that interested in deciding anything.

So perhaps it's a blessing in disguise to get the Nevada Supremes to intervene sooner rather than later. And it really is refreshing to see them intervene due to legitimate legal issues brought up by our Secretary of State rather than another instance of ridiculous partisan political whining.

We C'n Haz Ethics?

Oh, looky here...

The Supreme Court on Monday unanimously upheld a Nevada ethics law that governs when lawmakers should refrain from voting on official business because they might have a conflict of interest.

The court reversed a Nevada Supreme Court decision that said elected officials have a constitutional right to vote on official business that the state law violated.

The decision came in the case of Michael Carrigan, a Sparks council member who voted on a casino project even though his campaign manager served as a project consultant.

Justice Antonin Scalia, writing for the court, said an elected official's vote "is not his own speech but a mechanical function of government -- the commitment of his apportioned share of the legislature's power to the passage or defeat of a particular proposal."

Almost everywhere else, this is a no-brainer. But here in Nevada, our Supreme Court thought it was simply too much to ask lawmaker to abstain from obvious conflicts of interest.

And we wonder why "outsiders" always call Nevada government corrupt?

Nevada Redistricting: Onto Our State Senate!

Now that we've explored a number of Congressional redistricting options, I figured it's now time to see what may happen at The Nevada Legislature... Especially now that it's all heading to court.

So what may a court drawn State Senate map look like? I take a spin at Dave's Redistricting App to see what's possible.

Let's start with Clark County. Because Clark is picking up one new Senate seat, I needed to contract the current seats while cleaning up all the grossly gerrymandered lines and finding space for the new district.





Here in Clark, we'll start with the North Las Vegas/Downtown Las Vegas/East Side (Paradise) urban core.

SD 01 (The Blue District)
Incumbent John Lee (D-North Las Vegas)
44.6% White CVAP, 25.6% Latino CVAP, 17.4% African-American CVAP, 8.9% Asian-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 61.8% Obama (D), 36.6% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 58% Harry Reid (D), 38% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 51% Rory Reid (D), 47% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 02 (The Green District)
Incumbent Mo Denis (D-North Las Vegas)
53.1% Latino CVAP, 28.1% White CVAP, 11.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 68.1% Obama (D), 29.5% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 64% Harry Reid (D), 31% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 57% Rory Reid (D), 39% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 10 (The Deep Pink District)
Incumbent Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas)
51.8% Latino CVAP, 29.9% White CVAP, 10.7% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 71.5% Obama (D), 25.7% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 68% Harry Reid (D), 27% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 61% Rory Reid (D), 36% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 03 (The Dark Magenta District)
Incumbents Valerie Wiener (D-Las Vegas) (termed out in 2012) and Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas)
35.8% White CVAP, 30.6% Latino CVAP, 23.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 72.0% Obama (D), 26.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 68% Harry Reid (D), 28% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 61% Rory Reid (D), 36% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 04 (The Red District)
Incument Mark Manendo (D-Paradise)?
44.0% White CVAP, 34.2% Latino CVAP, 9.8% Asian-American CVAP, 9.2% African-American CVAP
US-President 2008: 64.8% Obama (D), 32.8% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 61% Harry Reid (D), 35% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 54% Rory Reid (D), 43% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 07 (The Silver District)
Incumbent David Parks (D-Paradise)
46.6% White CVAP, 33.1% Latino CVAP, 9.2% African-American CVAP, 8.1% Asian-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 65.5% Obama (D), 32.0% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 62% Harry Reid (D), 34% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 55% Rory Reid (D), 42% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

As you can see, not much drama... Other than SD 07 being split into two districts (SD 04 and the new SD 07) and Valerie Wiener's old SD 03 being dismantled. Since the court will be drawing the lines this time, there's no chance of any gross gerrymanders or outrageous "dual districts". Yet despite the gimmickry (and Mark Manendo possibly having to move to keep his Senate seat), this very diverse section of the valley remains quite firmly in Democratic hands.

OK, then. Let's move to Summerlin, Spring Valley, and the west side of the valley.



SD 15 (The Dark Orange District)
Incumbent Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise)?
69.8% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 49.2%, McCain (R) 49.0%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 45%, Angle (R) 51%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Sandoval (R) 59%
Early Race Rating: Leans Republican

SD 14 (The Olive District)
Open Seat (See SD 04, incumbent Valerie Wiener termed out)
46.2% White CVAP, 34.4% Latino CVAP, 10.7% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 62.3%, McCain (R) 35.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 58%, Angle (R) 37%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 51%, Sandoval (R) 46%
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 06 (The Teal District)
Incument Allison Copening (D-Summerlin)
68.1% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 54.0% Obama (D), 44.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 50% Harry Reid (D), 45% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 43% Rory Reid (D), 54% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic

SD 08 (The Slate Blue District)
Open Seat (IncumentBarbara Cegavske [R-Summerlin] termed out in 2014)
63.3% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 54.0% Obama (D), 44.3% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 50% Harry Reid (D), 45% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 43% Rory Reid (D), 54% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Tossup

SD 11 (The Chartreuse District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Mike Schneider [D-Spring Valley] termed out in 2012)
47.4% White CVAP, 23.5% Latino CVAP, 16.7% Asian-American CVAP, 9.8% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 61.4% Obama (D), 36.3% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 57% Harry Reid (D), 38% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 50% Rory Reid (D), 46% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

SD 09 (The Cyan District)
Incumbent Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise)?
51.6% White CVAP, 23.2% Asian-American CVAP, 14.6% Latino CVAP, 7.0% African-American CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 58.9% Obama (D), 39.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 55% Harry Reid (D), 40% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 48% Rory Reid (D), 49% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic

As you can see, the fast growing west end of the valley makes some dramatic changes in redistricting. With both Valerie Wiener and Mike Schneider termed out, remnants of their old districts become minority-majority opportunity seats that will most likely provide opportunity for up-and-coming local Democrats. Meanwhile in Summerlin, incumbent Democrat Allison Copening keeps a district that she can probably win next year while soon-to-be-termed-out Republican Barbara Cegavske is doomed to leave behind a district that's a tossup at best and quickly trending Democratic. And even though newly minted Republican incumbent Elizabeth Halseth lives in The Southwest, she will probably prefer to run in the new and more GOP friendly Northwest district than face the new, diversifying, and more Democratic leaning Southwest district.

Now let's head back east and check in on the Silverado Ranch and Henderson area.



SD 13 (The Dark Salmon District)
Incumbent Michael Roberson (R-Henderson)
60.1% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 56.9% Obama (D), 41.2% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 53% Harry Reid (D), 42% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 46% Rory Reid (D), 51% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Tossup

SD 05 (The Gold District)
Incumbent Shirley Breeden (D-Henderson)
68.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 55.0% Obama (D), 43.1% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 51% Harry Reid (D), 44% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 44% Rory Reid (D), 53% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Leans Democratic

SD 12 (The Cornflower Blue District)
Incumbent Joe Hardy (R-Boulder City)
77.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 45.8% Obama (D), 52.1% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 43% Harry Reid (D), 52% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 35% Rory Reid (D), 62% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

While my Senator, Shirley Breeden, loses some pockets of Democratic strength in Silverado Ranch and The East Side, she also loses Republican heavy precincts in MacDonald Highlands, Seven Hills, and the outer reaches of Old Henderson. All in all, it's likely a wash (maybe even slightly improving her district, since those parts of Henderson are filled with high-propensity GOP voters) and she's probably a slight favorite to hold onto this swingy but Democratic trending Green Valley based district. In the mean time, my other Senator, Michael Roberson, loses me and the rest of Green Valley as the SD 05 dual district is broken up and his house is placed in the new Silverado Ranch anchored SD 13. For him, that's not good news, since his house is placed in a rapidly diversifying and Democratic trending seat. Meanwhile, Joe Hardy can breathe more easily now that his once swingish seat sheds its East Side and North Las Vegas tentacles to contract to just GOP dominant Anthem, Old Henderson, and Boulder City (along with Laughlin at its southern tip).

Now that we have nearly all of Clark County covered, let's take a trip north and see what this map does to Reno and the rurals.



We'll start with the rural territory.

SD 16 (The Lime Green District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Dean Rhoads [R-Tuscarora] termed out in 2012)
76.0% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 35.2%, McCain (R) 61.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 35%, Angle (R) 58%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 28%, Sandoval (R) 66%
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

SD 17 (The Dark Slate District)
Open Seat (Incumbent Mike McGinness [R-Fallon] termed out in 2012)
78.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 37.3% Obama (D), 59.9% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 32% Harry Reid (D), 57% Angle (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

Other than longtime Legislature legends Dean Rhoads and Mike McGinness being termed out next year, there's nothing really changing all that much here. SD 16 actually does have to dip into Clark County, but the addition of Mesquite only strengthens the Republican tilt here.

OK, then... Let's hit Carson and Reno!



SD 18 (The Yellow District)
Incumbent James Settlemeyer (R-Minden)
81.8% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: 45.2% Obama (D), 52.4% McCain (R)
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: 39% Harry Reid (D), 54% Angle (R)
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: 30% Rory Reid (D), 64% Sandoval (R)
Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

SD 21 (The Maroon District)
Incumbent Ben Kieckhefer (R-Reno)
78.3% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 50.8%, McCain (R) 47.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 46%, Angle (R) 49%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Sandoval (R) 62%
Early Race Rating: Leans Republican



SD 19 (The Yellow Green District)
Incumbent Don Gustavson (R-Sparks)
67.9% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 55.6%, McCain (R) 42.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 51%, Angle (R) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Sandoval (R) 57%
Early Race Rating: Tossup if GOP picks another nominee, Leans Democratic if Gustavson or another teabagger is GOP nominee

SD 20 (The Pink District)
Incumbent Sheila Leslie (D-Reno)
62.7% White CVAP
US-Pres 2008: Obama (D) 65.2%, McCain (R) 32.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010: Harry Reid (D) 60%, Angle (R) 34%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010: Rory Reid (D) 47%, Sandoval (R) 47%
Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

Sparks Republican Don Gustavson gets an unwanted surprise here when his district retracts from rural territory and takes in Downtown Sparks (reuniting all of the City of Sparks). This makes his district significantly more Democratic, and potentially unwinnable for a flame-throwing teabagger such as himself. Meanwhile in Carson City and Valley, James Settlemeyer's district doesn't change much, only reuniting all of Douglas County and taking in some Reno exurbs in Washoe County. And back in Washoe, Ben Kieckhefer gets a district that's probably better suited to his moderate ways... But if he gets teabagged in a GOP primary, it could potentially fall if Democrats unite behind a strong candidate. And in Reno, Sheila Leslie's district remains rock solid Democratic (don't pay too much attention to the NV-Gov numbers, Sandoval is "the hometown boy") as it contracts to just inner city Reno and the "college town" neighborhoods surrounding UNR.

I know this map isn't perfect, but I tried my best to keep districts compact, bring together proper communities of interest, and create as many neatly drawn minority-majority districts as possible. I think it's something The Nevada Supreme Court will at least consider.

And by the way, in case you were wondering, here's my breakdown of the partisan divide of the new Senate seats:

9 Safe Democratic
4 Safe Republican
8 Tossups & Leaners (2 Lean Republican, 3 Lean Democratic)

Game Change! Reality Check!

Gov. Brian Sandoval will include taxes set to expire next month in a revised budget he will unveil Friday, according to a source. The move, which would run counter to his pledge not to raise taxes, comes thanks to a Supreme Court ruling today that prohibits the Legislature from taking local tax dollars to fund the state.

In a statement this afternoon, Sandoval said he would present a revised spending plan on Friday that takes into account the lost funds. "The ruling raises questions about certain assumptions in the proposed executive budget," the statement said. "As governor, I am forced to deal with their ramifications and I am responding by reworking the state budget."

It looks like reality is hitting home for Brian Sandoval now that The Nevada Supreme Court ruled the 2009 Clean Water Coalition money grab unconstitutional and threw a giant legal monkey wrench into Sandoval's previously proposed gimmicks to move money from other state and local funds into the state general fund. And already, The R-J is reporting Sandoval will support extending the entire set of taxes enacted in 2009.

Bill Raggio must be smiling somewhere. For now, his legacy remains intact.

And at least for now, Nevada will get some sort of reprieve. It's funny that it took The Nevada Supreme Court ruling out the Clean Water Coalition gimmick to get us here. But hey, we're now here and at least Nevada government won't be completely dismantled... Just woefully underfunded yet again.

And that gets us back to the heart of the problem. We're not finished yet. Yes, we have this reprieve. However, progressives need to keep organizing and keep working for long-term solutions to this constant budget crisis. We can't continue to underfund our schools, our parks, our roads, and our health care indefinitely. At some point, we need a more sustainable solution... And if The Legislature can't agree on one, then maybe we the people need to solve it ourselves after all.

But in the mean time, Sandoval finally paid attention to the reality check.