Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Wherein Nevada Is Positioned to Remain a Blue State in 2012, Part V

I think this video really explains it all.

However, I won't end it there. Believe it or not, there's actually more. Mitt Romney has attacked gay parents who adopted children, promised another $264,000 tax cut to the wealthiest 0.1%, stood up for Canadian oil company lobbyists over the people in "Middle America" who don't want to worry about the giant, dangerous tar sands oil pipeline in their backyard, and attacked the SUCCESSFUL auto industry rescue plan that saved American jobs. And hey, we're just talking about "Mr. 1%" Mittens here.

There's also "Frothy" Ricky Santorum. Oh, lordy...

Believe it or not, Mittens had to pour millions of campaign dollars into Michigan just to eke out a 3% win over that guy.

So when you consider his built-in advantages, the money he poured into the state, the attacks he leveled against Santorum, and the dreadful debate performance Santorum turned in last week, Romney’s three-point margin seems a lot less impressive. This was not like Florida, where Romney utterly decimated his chief foe (Newt Gingrich) and posted a lopsided victory. This was a must-win state that Romney threw everything he had at… and managed to win by just three points – apparently with a big boost from early voters, many of whom cast their ballots before Santorum surged into contention.

This suggests that Romney may not get much of a bounce out Michigan – and that he could find himself in big trouble again one week from now on Super Tuesday. The biggest state to vote that day is Ohio, a big Midwest state culturally and demographically similar to Michigan. The latest poll in the Buckeye State, released early on Tuesday, gives Santorum an 11-point lead over Romney, 37 to 26 percent. Maybe those numbers will tighten in the wake of Michigan, but Romney is going to have to fight for it.

So as we discussed last night, it's likely the G-O-TEA primary brawl will continue regardless of how Mittens' surrogates spin last night's results on the cable "news" channels. And as the primary fight goes on, Mittens faces more challenges... Including in the general election should he survive primary season, since he's lurched so far to the radical right that his issue positions are virtually identical to Santorum's.

And this brings us back here to Nevada. We've already seen Joe Heck run away from his BFF on housing. I don't think you need me to remind you why this happened... But hey, what the Heck!

Oh yes, and there's the economy that Mittens & Ricky keep blaming on President Obama. Yep, there's that economy that's now adding jobs here in Nevada, making consumers feel increasingly confident, and one that grew 3% in the fourth quarter of last year (better than most economists' expectations). At this point, I'm sure President Obama welcomes their "blame".

This is probably why Romney, Santorum, and their G-O-TEA buddies in Congress have shifted back to "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy. What's really funny with this is that talk of probing women's private parts, denying civil rights to LGBTQ Americans, dehumanizing Latin@ Americans simply because of their family heritage, and attacking Muslims for just being Muslim is really turning off voters. No, really. No, really.

Yesterday, local Republicans were trying to distract from their many woes plaguing them this month (like their EPIC FAIL of a caucus) by trumpeting a Public Opinion Strategies poll that even Jon Ralston (who likes their Nevada pollster) admitted undersampled Latin@ voters. Yet in Ralston's Sun column this morning, he noted how even this POS poll may spell trouble for the Nevada GOP.

The numbers in the North are fascinating. Berkley and Heller are in a dead heat in Washoe County, and the president’s numbers (56-40) are amazingly strong there. So, is the poll just wrong or is something happening here? Any poll can miss the mark, but folks should not miss what is happening in Washoe, as evidenced by Obama’s ’08 victory there and Reid’s ’10 win. Yes, no analogy is perfect, especially one that might involve Sharron Angle. But Washoe is turning bluer and bluer — Jill Derby and Heller were competitive there twice in congressional races — and even independents there seem more liberal than anywhere else in the state. That could be an ominous harbinger for the GOP.

Strangely enough, that POS poll had Obama and Shelley Berkley underperforming in Clark County while overperforming in Washoe County. Sorry, but I call BS on POS. I honestly do think they had sampling problems this time, so maybe the entire poll has to be thrown out. But even when that's done and we look at recent election results in Washoe County, Ralston is correct that Washoe seems to be trending Democratic. And yes, I also think he's right about independents there being turned off by the radical right G-O-TEA crazy. So when the likes of Romney and Santorum continue to double down on "CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy and economic royalist crap that would make Ebenezer Scrooge blush, Republicans may very well face serious problems in the Reno area this fall. And if that happens, then it's quite likely Nevada will take quite the deep blue hue come this November.

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