Sunday, June 17, 2012

New #NVLeg Assembly Race Ratings

Now that we talked about the Senate, it's time to check on the Assembly. Oh yes, that's right. We also have new #NVLeg race ratings there as well. And now that the primary is over, we have a better sense of what to expect this fall.



When we last checked on the Assembly in March, it looked like plenty of change was in store, even as the partisan numbers weren't. So has that changed since then? We'll find out below.



Clark County



AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest
Nested into SD 18



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 58%
R Reid (D) 39%



Race Rating: Leans Republican



There was never any suspense about the primary... And I'm starting to wonder how much we'll see in the general. "Tea Party" Republican Michelle Fiore started her fundraising well, and it's starting to look like Democrat Ken Evans isn't keeping up. He will need plenty of resources to flip this seat, even if Fiore is... Well, crazy.



AD 5
Spring Valley/Las Vegas- Peccole Ranch
Nested into SD 8



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%



Race Rating: Leans Democratic



Since our last report, it looks like Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop has doubled down... And brought in some friends to go all in for her. While Republican challenger Bill Harrington did coast past his primary, he hasn't raised much $. And with the exception of "Tea Party, Inc." power player Monte Miller coming in to help him, it's looking like the rest of Nevada's key "business establishment" power players are betting on Dondero Loop.



AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch
Nested into SD 9



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%





Race Rating: Likely Democratic



As expected, Democrat Andrew Martin easily sailed through his primary. However, Republicans are a little embarrassed over their star recruit, Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman, narrowly losing the GOP primary to "some dude" Clay Hurst. And not only is Hurst "some dude", but he's "some dude" who hasn't even filed a C&E (contribution and expense) report! Now, Martin just needs good Democratic turnout this fall to seal the deal. And considering all the field work that will be done for John Oceguera and Justin Jones (AD 9 also overlaps NV-03), that shouldn't be too much of a problem.



AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas
Nested into SD 21



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 49%
R Reid (D) 47%





Race Rating: Safe Democratic



This is probably the last time you see AD 12 on the scoreboard. Though James Ohrenschall initially ran into trouble when his district shed some of heavily Democratic (and Latino) East Las Vegas to pick up heavily Republican (and wealthy and white) Lake Las Vegas, it now looks like he will live on for another term. His Republican opponent, Bridgette Bryant, has so far raised $1,350 total! Once again, Nevada Republican ineptitude looks to be saving another Nevada Democrat.



AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills
Nested into SD 18



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%





Race Rating: Tossup



While the Assembly GOP Caucus must be relieved that Paul Anderson survived a "TEA" fueled primary challenge from Leonard Foster, they still can't rest easy here. Lou DeSalvio won the Democratic Primary, and he's been "packing heat" in his fundraising. And since both he and Kelli Ross (who's running for Senate here) are moderates with the strong potential for crossover appeal, Anderson and his Republican Establishment backers will have to work to lock down this seat.



AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson
Nested into SD 12



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 50%
Angle (R) 45%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%





Race Rating: Leans Republican



On paper, this should be a very competitive district. And while I still suspect Crescent Hardy is just too conservative for this district, he may just be able to slip through the cracks due to a lack of due diligence on the part of the Assembly Democratic Caucus. Felipe Rodriguez has hardly raised any money, and it's unclear as to what kind of field he's doing. And while there are many Democratic strongholds in the new AD 19, they have to be worked hard to get the kind of turnout that one regularly sees in the rock solid Republican parts of the district that Crescent Hardy is counting on to win another term.



AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley
Nested into SD 5



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 55%
Angle (R) 40%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%





Race Rating: Leans Democratic



For now, both party establishments are happy. Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed Andy Eisen and Assembly Republican Caucus endorsed Becky Harris won their respective primaries, so it's now game on for those two in the general. Both live in Silverado Ranch, both are prodigious fundraisers, and both have great looking resumes. While Harris probably won't make this an easy pickup for Democrats, I still sense the partisan leanings of the new AD 21 give Eisen at least a bit of an edge.




AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch
Nested into SD 20



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 48%
H Reid (D) 47%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 39%





Race Rating: Likely Republican



Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) got a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.



AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson
Nested into SD 5



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 52%
Angle (R) 43%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 43%



Race Rating: Leans Democratic




At first, incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson) seemed destined to reach the top of "The Endangered Legislators List", as her district was shifted to the right in redistricting. And when famous "The Gun Store" owner Bob Irwin decided to jump in and challenge Mastroluca, I honestly didn't know what to expect next.



Yet while GOP money men Sheldon Adelson and Monte Miller have cut checks for Irwin, his fundraising is falling seriously behind Mastroluca's (who's already raised over $85,000 so far and has her own power players backing her up). And other than his hideous looking roadside signs, I haven't seen any field work on his behalf. Mastroluca, on the other hand, has become an expert in maximizing her ground game to win close elections.



While she's far from out of the woods, April Mastroluca may soon find a path back to the promised land (of another term in Carson City).



AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands
Nested into SD 9



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%



Race Rating: Leans Democratic



On the Democratic side, there was little drama as Assembly Caucus endorsed James Healey won the primary. However on the Republican side, "tea party" backed "some dude" Tom Blanchard scored a surprising upset victory over Establishment backed (and son of recently failed NV-04 candidate Barbara Cegavske) Adam Cegavske. Consider this another G-O-TEA Primary FAIL that may very well come back to bite Nevada Republicans.



AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest
Nested into SD 6



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 48%
Angle (R) 47%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 55%
R Reid (D) 41%



Race Rating: Tossup



This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.



Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.



However, Marcus Conklin isn't making this easy for Duncan and Assembly GOP Leadership. While the $45,000 that Duncan has raised so far would be respectable in a normal race, Conklin has already piled up over $220,000 (!!!!!) and has lined up almost the entire "gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex" (basically, everyone but Monte Miller and Sheldon Adelson) behind him. Still, we'll have to wait and see if the law of diminishing marginal returns kicks in. Will Conklin be able to pay for the kind of phenomenal outreach he'll most definitely need to win reelection, or will Duncan be able to turn this around and run against a "corrupt insider incumbent"?



AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills
Nested into SD 20



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%



Race Rating: Leans Democratic



Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.



While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.






Washoe County



AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village
Nested into SD 16



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 47%
Angle (R) 47%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 62%
R Reid (D) 32%



Race Rating: Likely Republican



At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. And even worse, he's raised very little $ so far.



Unless Washoe Democrats run into a miracle soon, this is probably the last time you'll see this district on this list?



AD 31
Lemmon Valley/Sparks- Shadow Mountain
Nested into SD 14



US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%



Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 49%
Angle (R) 46%



Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 59%
R Reid (D) 35%



Race Rating: Tossup



This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.



But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well? So far he's outraised Espinosa by about 2-1, he's working the field hard on his own, and he can count on state party field work (for Obama and Shelley Berkley) to turn out more Democratic voters for him as well.



This may be another race that goes down to the wire.



---



Since March, the number of true Tossup races has shrunken. On one hand, Republicans have gained more of an upper hand in securing 4 and flipping 19, Democrats have gained more of an edge in holding 5, 12, and 29, as well as in winning the new 9. So here's the new list of the hottest Assembly races, listed in order of likelihood of Democratic win.




41 (Hold)
35 (Flip)
29 (Hold)
21 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
31 (Hold)
37 (Hold)
13 (Flip)
4 (Flip)
19 (Hold)




If the election were today, I'd draw the line after 31. This would mean Republicans gain 19 and 37... And knock out the very person Democrats thought would be the next Speaker. Ouch!



However, Republicans shouldn't get too giddy. After all, this also means Democrats gain 20 (a safe pickup), 9, 35, and 21, which is all Team Blue needs to reach the magic #28 needed for a 2/3 supermajority! While Assembly Democrats may be embarrassed over losing their Speaker-in-waiting, others may be happy just to be back at the sweet spot of 2/3. This would mean a net gain of 2 seats for Democrats.


















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