10 of 12: Caucus Fracas

Around this time last year, we reflected on "The Rise & Fall of the 'New' Nevada GOP". Early on in 2011, everything seemed to be going so well for Nevada Republicans. They had finally ridden themselves of "top of the ticket troublemakers", and they seemed to be turning a corner with fresh faces in leadership.

Well, that grand old elephant honeymoon didn't last long. And as 2012 began, that became crystal clear. What was supposed to be Nevada Republicans' special moment in the spotlight instead became a total train wreck. And what was supposed to be "Mitt Romney's big night" instead became #CaucusFracas2012.

Funny enough, he unintentionally pointed out the greatest weakness of Nevada Republicans. Ever since 2008, they've been obsessing over ideological purity instead of even attempting to show any real interest in governing. We saw it in 2010, when they embraced extremism and tried to shove the most radical US Senate candidate we've ever seen down our throats. And we saw it again last year, when they were more interested in playing political games than solving our state's problems. It's really all about their radical "tea party" ideology for them. And by making Mitt Romney embrace it, they're only sowing the seeds of their own defeat this fall.

Oh, and by the way, NBC News now officially projects Mitt Romney to win the G-O-TEA Caucus tonight. Wow. What a surprise! ;-)

But again, this "victory" is looking increasingly pyrrhic. As we talked about yesterday, President Obama is proving that his vision of economic recovery and rebuilding is one that really works. So what does Mitt Romney have to compete with this? Lies? Radical right extremism? Donald Trump?

My prediction actually did come true. For one, Rick Santorum managed to upstage Romney by turning a trio of supposedly "meaningless beauty contests" into a "game change" moment that forced Romney to actually compete for the Republican nomination. And while that ultimately wasn't enough to keep Romney from claiming the nomination, what happened in February forced Romney to run so far to the radical right that he made himself unelectable in the general election.

And if that didn't add enough insult to injury, this most certainly did.



The caucus process itself melted into pure chaos as voters were being turned away, counting turned into controversy, and out-of-state media looked in horror as the Nevada Republican Party began to unravel. But perhaps above all else, this was a major turning point for Nevada Republicans... As we saw the beginnings of "The Second Ron Paul Revolution.



So they succeeded in hijacking the Nevada Republican Party. They then failed at actually leading it somewhere (other than abject failure). We saw the writing on the wall back in May.

[... W]inning elections doesn't happen by just demanding "purity" and throwing a temper tantrum when that doesn't happen. Believe it or not, temper tantrums don't win elections.

This is something we often have to grapple with on the left, but now we're seeing this unfold on the right at a level that I've never seen before. As much as some grassroots folks on the left and the right love to see epic ideological battles unfold at party conventions and purge all "unsavory moderates" out of their respective parties, the fact of the matter is that doing that gets us no closer to winning elections. (If anything, that HURTS efforts to win elections.) While it's always important to promote the values we believe in and hold fast to them, we can't punish political parties for focus[ing] on party building while perhaps shirking "ideology enforcement" duties. After all, the first responsibility of a political party is to build the infrastructure necessary to win elections.

At times, we on the left have not seen eye to eye with Nevada State Democratic Party leaders. And yes, we sometimes get irritated when they seem to favor moderate candidates over "BOLD PROGRESSIVES!!!" However, most of us also realize that getting 70-90% of what we want is far better than getting nothing, so we leave Fantasy-land behind and return to the real world & return to working the field to win elections.

And this is why Orrin Johnson is panicking. Ron Paul's supporters care deeply for their libertarian beliefs, and they're set to accept nothing less than full fealty to those beliefs. But in pursuing complete ideological purity, they're also set to lose a whole lot of elections because they simply don't care about that stuff. This is why Nevada Republicans are in such dire straits. And it should serve as an important lesson to all the rest of us trying to balance ideological wishes with political reality.

Again, we could see what was coming. So while "The 'New New' Nevada GOP" focused on such important matters as worshipping at the altar of Ron Paul, the top money people, the "consultant class", and even the entire Washoe County Republican Party proceeded to obtain a "divorce" from "The Real Nevada Republican Party" in order for the RNC to "make it rain" on them. And while the Ron Paul Party succeeded in revering their "dear leader" in their own special way, Dean Heller and other top Nevada Republican politicians just ran away from the entire party.

That's why they could not stop this from happening. And that's ultimately why they could not stop this from happening. And that's why Nevada Republicans may be resigned to this for a while (longer).

Back in September, we noticed Nevada Republicans' glaring lack of field. The "power player" consultants ultimately opted to spend more on media advertising while "the real Nevada Republican Party" continued its increasingly time-honored tradition of extraordinary infighting. The few victories Republicans enjoyed on November 6 were more despite the party, not because of it.

So what will Nevada Republicans do to move forward? The above mentioned consultants are floating around the idea of some sort of "permanent Team Nevada" to circumvent the real state party. Others want to continue plotting a plan to finally wrest control from the Ron Paul acolytes who have been spinning the party out of control (perhaps because they're ideologically opposed to any kind of central control?). Meanwhile, the Ron Paul acolytes and their teabagger allies are already threatening primary challenges to Brian Sandoval and all other Republicans they deem "impure". So basically, get ready for another cycle full of G-O-TEA mayhem. [...]

But can Republicans ultimately remain relevant with this level of chaos continuing indefinitely? I have my doubts. It's just not sustainable to set up a "shadow party" to get out the vote, outsource other party functions (like sending mailers and producing yard signs) out of state, and allow "top of the ticket" candidates to continue running their own operations completely separated from the party while avoiding the actual party like the plague. Something's got to give. We'll just have to wait and see what happens in the coming months as the Nevada Republican Party nears its final implosion (and first chance of actual rebuilding).

And this, my dears, is the sad and sordid tale of the Nevada Republican Party in the 2012 Presidential Cycle. We can only sit back, grab some popcorn, and see what kind of spectacular drama unfolds in G-O-TEA Land in 2013.

It's Election Night (Again)!

So it's time to live-blog again. We have another G-O-TEA Presidential Primary in Illinois, and we have a local election here in Southern Nevada. I'll be monitoring both tonight and posting both results & analysis of what's happening.

Stay tuned here at Nevada Progressive tonight as we live-blog the Illinois primary results and the Las Vegas Ward 2 special election.

5:15 PM-

Haven't we heard this before? Tonight is poised to be the night of Mittens' great comeback! Well, isn't it? Perhaps not, depending on Romney's performance in Illinois tonight.

Another scenario is possible, though, one that’s not as unlikely now as it was 24 hours ago – and for the Romney campaign, it’s the doomsday scenario. The key here is that Santorum didn’t just beat Romney in Mississippi and Alabama – he also knocked off Newt Gingrich, who has pitched himself as the South’s candidate. On the heels of his Oklahoma and Tennessee wins on Super Tuesday (and his Ohio near-miss), Santorum can now make a strong case for anti-Romney conservatives to ditch Gingrich once and for all and rally around him. This would give Santorum the one-on-one race with Romney that he’s craved, and how it would turn out is the great unknown.

Starting in the early days of this campaign, polls have shown potentially serious trouble for Romney if the conservative base ever united behind a single candidate. On a few occasions, like with Rick Perry’s late August surge or Gingrich’s in December, a single candidate actually managed to play this role, opening giant leads in national and key early state surveys and attaining polling heights that Romney has still yet to reach. But those candidates were horribly deficient and their surges were short-lived.

Santorum, though, is demonstrating more staying power — and Gingrich has been getting in his way. Without the former speaker in the race, the results wouldn’t have been close last night, nor would they have been in Tennessee and Oklahoma last week. And Santorum probably would have won Ohio, scored a clear win in Iowa and probably Georgia, and maybe pulled off South Carolina, and perhaps even Florida.

We may be arriving at the moment Romney and his campaign have feared for the entire campaign, when they can no longer benefit from a split conservative vote. Gingrich gave no hint in his speech last night that he’ll leave the race anytime soon. But he may be eliminated organically, if conservatives conclude that he’s exhausted his viability and that they’re better off lining up with Santorum. It might not matter if Gingrich presses ahead; if his support evaporates, Santorum will get his one-on-one race anyway.

So far, MSNBC is describing Illinois as "too early to call". This isn't a good sign for Mitt Romney. Some of the final pre-election polls suggested a blowout win for Romney, so anything less than that will probably set him back at least somewhat. And if somehow Mittens manages to bomb everywhere except Greater Chicago-land, it will just confirm his continued woes with the "tea party" base that just can't warm up to the guy who's supposed to be their "inevitable nominee".

Now, we just have to wait for this map to fill up so we can catch a first glimpse of the next stage of the G-O-TEA circus clown show.

5:28 PM-

And we have the first results. And interestingly enough, they're from The Windy City itself... Or at least somewhere in Cook County (which is home to Chicago and its most immediate suburbs), along with Lake County (home to wealthy Chicago suburbs). So far, Mitt Romney is comfortably ahead 54-29 over Rick Santorum. But remember, Chicago-land is where Mittens is expected to run up the score. We just have to wait and see what happens down state.

5:40 PM-

Some news outlets are now calling Illinois for Romney. It's looking likely he'll win tonight, as nearly everyone expected, but now we're all wondering how big (or small) the margin is. How well (or poorly) Romney wins will determine the media spin later tonight, as well as whether we'll hear louder calls for Santorum to drop out (and let Romney wrap up the nomination) or for Newt Gingrich to drop out (so Santorum can coalesce the hard-core teabagger opposition to Romney and deny him the nomination).

It's still quite possible that Romney can't ultimately get the 1,144 delegates needed to officially earn the GOP nomination. Now, it's just a matter of whether Mittens can push everyone else out soon... Or if everyone else pushes him out come Tampa.

5:50 PM-

Perhaps Team Mittens shouldn't pop out too much champagne tonight. So far in looking at the exit polls, I'm sensing Romney only wins Illinois tonight by about 6-8%. Yes, a win is a win is a win. And yes, Mittens will get the most delegates regardless (thanks to Santorum's campaign screwing up on delegate selection again). But again, he's only barely winning a state he was expected to coast to victory in not that long ago. And if he has to spend many millions of dollars just to squeak past a campaign so incompetent it's bleeding delegates all over the place, there's a serious problem in Republican-Land.

6:10 PM-

Funny enough, Rachel Maddow is explaining on MSNBC how Mittens may not be all that secure in his "delegate plan". Apparently, Illinois' GOP primary ballot is so damned long and complicated (in having folks vote for Presidential preference AND delegates, but also allowing them to do so separately) that Santorum, Gingrich, and/or Ron Paul may actually be able to "win" votes intended for Romney if voters don't vote for Romney delegates. YIKES!

But wait, there's more! Looking at the latest results, it looks like Romney is doing well in the closest-in Chicago-Land counties, as expected, but Santorum is starting to post leads in a few exurban Chicago area counties. Ruh-roh. And as many Romney boosters feared, Santorum is mostly cleaning up downstate.

And looking at the exit polls, we can see that Santorum actually WON late breaking voters. And yes, Santorum also won all those "conservative white working class" and "tea party" aligned demographic groups that Romney continues to struggle with. Oh yes, this contest will go on. Mittens can't celebrate "victory" just yet.

6:35 PM-

OK, let's get this out of the way. Rick Santorum is batshit crazy.

If his campaign can’t be defined by his stance on either contraception or unemployment, what’s the rationale for Santorum’s marathon and increasingly long-shot candidacy? Cheering on a Christian theocracy, and then quickly backpedaling, is as close as I can get. Dennis Terry’s hysterical remarks should be chilling to anyone who values religious freedom, on the right or left (watch it here). Watching Santorum standing and clapping for the bigot made it more clear than ever that he can never lead this nation. The fact that he later backtracked and (sort of) said he disagreed with Terry’s remarks doesn’t erase the fact that when he heard them, he stood and clapped like all the other good Christians. This is the company Santorum keeps.

Yet Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney had to radically outspend "Crazy Ricky" Santorum just to (probably only narrowly) beat him in Illinois.

It’s not all good news. The run-up to Illinois demonstrated surprising cracks in Romney’s campaign — typically considered the most solid and competent — in the long primary. Reports over the suggested revealed Romney’s campaign in Illinois was as disorganized as Santorum’s — not a good sign for an operation that will need to make a quick pivot to the general election against President Obama’s incredibly efficient campaign. Romney also vastly outspent his chief rival and conducted ran a very negative campaign, the kind of thing that doesn’t do much for his Republican enthusiasm problem.

And so far, that's the big takeaway for me tonight.

Oh yes, and there's this takeaway from somewhere closer to home. Jim Rogers blogged this yesterday.

I am a liberal. I make no excuses for that, nor do I believe I am obligated to defend my position. I do not believe that I am always right. I also have the greatest respect for the leading conservatives in this country. Agree with them or not, their philosophies have been sound, constructive and productive for the last 40 years I have followed their endeavors.

The issue is not the liberal view versus the conservative view. The issue is how the lunatic and intellectually bankrupt group that calls itself conservatives has been able to kidnap and hold for ransom the Republican Party and totally destroy its heritage of sound and logical thinking.

The political successes of intellectually bankrupt people like Sharron Angle and Sarah Palin should scare all of you. Fortunately neither one of these idiots, who has no understanding of conservatism, does not understand any of this country’s problems, and certainly has no capacity to solve those problems, has done nothing more than take this nation’s focus away from supporting people in their own party who could keep this country going forward.

And IMHO he's 100% correct! As we've talked about before, today's Republican Party is becoming increasingly enamored with "tea party" radicals like Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron over pragmatic center-right problem solvers like Kenny Guinn and Bill Raggio. As we may see later tonight, Nevada Republicans continue to grapple with this frightening reality.

However, we're also seeing this play out on the national stage. Even if Mitt Romney somehow manages to sew up the nomination soon, he'll have to do so by foresaking whatever shred of moderation he once embraced to instead try to "out-teabagger" the official "tea party" approved candidates. Romney continues to alienate women, minorities, and just about every swing voter demographic around with his support of the extreme "tea party" agenda. So is Mittens really "winning"?

Super Tuesday G-O-TEA Primary Liveblog

OK, I just can't help it. I have to watch another night of this train wreck. Let's see what's happening.

4:10 PM-

All we know now is that Newton has lived to campaign another day. He won Georgia... And so far, he's the only one who's officially won any Super Tuesday contest.

Stay tuned here as we get more info on what's happening tonight... And why we should care. ;-)

4:25 PM-

So far in looking at MSNBC's Georgia exit poll, I'm thinking Newton Leroy Gingrich will carry his home state with about 45%, with Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney coming in second with about 27%. It should be a big win for him...

But the other big prize tonight will soon be reporting results. I'll be back as soon as Ohio comes online.

4:30 PM-

OK. Here we go! MSNBC projects Ohio to be "Too Close to Call". Expect another long, grueling night. Meanwhile, Virginia is expected to go to Mitt Romney... But Ron Paul is outperforming the pre-election polls in early returns so far. And Fox already projected Vermont for Romney, but MSNBC still calls it "Too Early to Call". Romney is leading so far in Vermont, albeit only by single digits over Rick Santorum.

4:40 PM-

So far looking at MSNBC's Ohio exit poll, their numbers suggest something like a 39-35 Romney win over Santorum. Will Mittens finally emerge as "the clear frontrummer" and reemerge as "the inevitable one" tonight? It will probably be incredibly difficult for Santorum to keep campaigning after tonight if Romney takes Ohio. But then again, can Romney keep spending oodles and oodles of money just to eke out wins in states he was originally expected to run away with?

4:50 PM-

Once again, is "the skinny guy with the funny name" (who happens to now live in The White House) the real "big winner" of Super Tuesday? I'm thinking perhaps so.



And as I hinted at earlier today, a certain REPUBLICAN Senator from Alaska just added more evidence to suggest this.

Shortly after Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) admitted to her home-state paper that she regrets voting for the GOP’s Blunt amendment, which was aimed at rolling back President Obama’s contraception rule, she explained to TPM why the issue has weighed heavily on her — and why she thinks it’s damaging her party.

“I heard a lot [from my constituents] because it was in the news this weekend,” Murkowski told TPM Tuesday afternoon after attending a weekly GOP policy lunch. “I will tell you, it’s not so much just the discussion about contraception that the Blunt amendment precipitated. There’s just an awful lot that’s been going on. There have been some comments made by some of our presidential candidates. There was the incendiary comments made by Rush Limbaugh.”

Her remarks reflect a more widely shared sense among some conservatives and GOP lawmakers that leadership led the party astray in this fight — and that the appetite for pressing ahead with it is diminishing.

Murkowski, a high-ranked senator and former leadership member herself, worries that the sequence of events since GOP leaders twisted arms for Thursday’s losing vote has left her party on the wrong side of the issue, and that the public is taking note.

“I think [these incidents] are just adding to this sense that women’s health rights are being attacked — that in 2012 we’re having a conversation about whether or not contraception should be allowed,” Murkowski told TPM. “I think most thought that we were done with those discussions decades ago. So it’s been kind of an interesting week for women’s health issues.”

Again, "TEH CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" are doing nothing to help Republicans attract swing voters. They just look like kooky prudes straight out of some corny 1950s sitcom. And again, because "Frothy" Ricky and Newton have forced Mittens to lurch so far to the right that they're all joining in on Rush Limbaugh's war on America's women, the entire G-O-TEA looks sexist and stupid.

And because Republicans are again obsessing over "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" instead of how to create more good American jobs, they're alienating not just women. They're alienating all sane, rational American voters. No wonder why President Obama's numbers keep getting better and better and better...

5:00 PM-

Now MSNBC is projecting Mitt Romney to win Massachusetts, while Tennessee and Oklahoma are too early to call. There are still no results yet from North Dakota.

5:05 PM-

MSNBC just revised its Ohio exit poll results... And Santorum seems to benefit from it. After doing a little "in head math", I found that Romney's projected lead shrunk from about 4% to only 1.5%. Hmmmm...

Mittens must be hoping MSNBC won't have to revise its exit poll results again. Apparently the polls had to be kept open a little late in some areas. Will this prove to be the ultimate last minute surprise?

5:20 PM-

So tonight is supposed to be Mitt Romney's "big night" of "big wins". So how is it panning out so far? TPM has an interesting take.

One potential sign of trouble for Romney is in Georgia, which networks called for Newt Gingrich almost immediately, suggesting a strong performance. While it’s not surprising Gingrich won given his close ties to the state, which he represented in Congress, the victory is a crucial jolt to a campaign that had fallen into dire straits. After a huge surge with a win in South Carolina last month, he’s been largely sidelined as Santorum’s taken over as the leading anti-Romney candidate. But don’t be surprised to see Gingrich make a play — yet again — for that title in the coming days thanks to a friendly schedule. March includes races in Southern states like Alabama and Missippi (March 13) and Louisiana (March 24) where he has the potential to make a run. Especially if Santorum has a weak night and Romney still struggles to win working class voters and ultra-conservative voters, Gingrich has plenty of potential for another comeback.

But if ever there was a show of the limitations of Gingrich and Santorum it’s Virginia, where neither qualified for the ballot. This was especially embarrassing for Gingrich, who currently lives in the state. Romney romped to an easy win there, with networks calling it as soon as polls closed. Santorum faces similar problems in the night’s biggest prize, Ohio, having failed to get delegates on the ballot in several Congressional districts. Romney erased a polling lead in the final days in that state as well as Tennessee, another favorable state to Santorum, giving him an opportunity to blunt his momentum much as he did with Gingrich in Florida.

Before the polls even closed, Team Santorum told reporters that their guy is staying in until the convention. Gingrich’s big (but not surprising) win in Georgia means you can expect him to stick around, too.

The narrative is basically written now: Romney is almost certainly going to be his party’s nominee. But with Santorum and Gingrich around, another narrative will also be close at hand: Romney’s an extremely weak frontrunner.

Let me add this. Look at Virginia right now. The only reason why Romney's winning is because Ron Paul is his only competition there... Yet he can't even clear 60% against "CRAZY!!!" Ron Paul! I thought Ron Paul was totally unacceptable to the G-O-TEA base. So why is he getting over 40% of the vote in Virginia with about 80% of precincts reporting?

And why can't Romney win any contest where he can't claim a "home field advantage" (MA, VT) and/or spend many millions to stomp his opponents (MI, FL)? Think about that. This is why Romney is such a weak "front runner".

5:30 PM-

I just looked at the Tennessee exit poll, and it suggests a 35-28 win for Santorum (with Romney claiming that 28% second place finish). At least he should be able to claim one big win tonight. However, don't completely discount Gingrich here. The exit poll suggests he'll finish a fairly close third with 23%. For someone who didn't do much outside Georgia and was left for dead (yet again) just two weeks ago, Newton seems to be coming back yet again.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newton goes on to campaign in more states, frustrate Santorum's campaign some more (by preventing him from coalescing "the anti-Romney vote"), and irritate Romney's campaign some more (by prevening him from wrapping up the primary fight this month).

5:45 PM-

Ha ha ha ha ha! This is why Newton will live to campaign another day. He knows how to throw the "red meat" to the G-O-TEA base like no one else. He's attacking the media, attacking President Obama, attacking his Republican rivals, attacking "the elites", and talking crazy with his nonsensical "big ideas". Yes, we may think he's a fruit cake... But the teabaggers love it.

We may think Gingrich's "big ideas" make no sense, but the "tea party" can't get enough of them. They may say they hate "BIG GUV'MINT!!!", they they love it when they think they're about to get more government money funneling their way. Oh yes, and they really love it when big government steps in to promote their "faith and moral values". Oh yes, this is why Newton will live to campaign another day.

5:50 PM-

Now Santorum is officially projected to win Oklahoma and Tennessee. He won't go away empty handed, far from it. We just have to wait and see what happens in Ohio. Oh, Ohio...

6:35 PM-

Sorry I missed Santorum's "victory speech", but I had to take a conference call. So far, it seems like my intuition was onto something. He's now leading 39-36 over Romney in Ohio. Now with only 40% of returns in, there's still plenty of time for Ohio to flip back to Romney. But if he keeps building up what's now a 14,000+ raw vote lead, Santorum may yet pull off what can now be described as a mild upset. So yet again, Mittens may be denied a "big win", and the G-O-TEA primary game is about to go into "reset mode" again.

This bumper car ride is just too fun to ignore... ;-)

7:20 PM-

OK. I'm looking at the Ohio results map right now. On one hand, Romney probably has plenty more votes coming his way in Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland and the inner ring Cleveland suburbs are. But on the other hand, Santorum probably still has more votes coming his way in a number of rural and small "rust belt town" counties. Santorum now has a 15,048 vote lead... Or 38% to 36% for Romney with 70% of precincts now accounted for.

This should be quite the long and exciting night... Which is NOT what Mittens had wanted. Hehe.

7:30 PM-

Now Santorum can claim another win under his belt... And this was a bit of a surprise. He got North Dakota. It isn't much, but it's still another embarrassment for Mittens.

7:35 PM-

Chuck Todd just announced on MSNBC that he doesn't think they'll be able to project a winner tonight. Why? At least two of their models show a finish around the 0.25% margin that requires an automatic recount. If that happens, it may be weeks before we know who wins the Ohio Republican Primary. That probably doesn't help either candidate tonight, but it's probably especially bad news for Romney, since he was expecting momentum from winning Ohio.

Again, this primary season WILL indeed go on... Even after several media pundits declared that "Super Tuesday" would crown an eventual nominee.

8:00 PM-

OK. This is likely my final update for tonight. Santorum has been clinging to a 2,000+ vote lead in Ohio for the last 30 minutes or so. Last I checked, it's back up to about 3,200 votes, or about 1%. Yes, it's really that close right now.

There's plenty of spin on how Romney will try to claim the final results as some kind of "win". But as I've been saying all night, the results from across the country suggests he does NOT have the G-O-TEA nomination as "wrapped up" as he wants us to believe. The base still can't stand him.

And again, this prolonged nomination process continues to reveal the G-O-TEA brand for the empty rhetoric that's really there. Really, what do they have? Crazy opposition to birth control? Nonsensical rants against Islam? More irrational drum beats for a horrific war on Iran? More hating on gay married couples? More insane "billionaire bailouts" they want to throw into the federal tax code?

Throughout this insanely ridiculous primary/caucus process, the G-O-TEA has been proving why it's become such an EPIC FAIL. And as I've been saying constantly over here, this is why the G-O-TEA is paving the way for its own defeat in November regardless of who gets to be its nominee. Don't believe me? Believe these numbers. They're not lying.

Wherein Nevada Is Positioned to Remain a Blue State in 2012, Part V

I think this video really explains it all.



However, I won't end it there. Believe it or not, there's actually more. Mitt Romney has attacked gay parents who adopted children, promised another $264,000 tax cut to the wealthiest 0.1%, stood up for Canadian oil company lobbyists over the people in "Middle America" who don't want to worry about the giant, dangerous tar sands oil pipeline in their backyard, and attacked the SUCCESSFUL auto industry rescue plan that saved American jobs. And hey, we're just talking about "Mr. 1%" Mittens here.

There's also "Frothy" Ricky Santorum. Oh, lordy...



Believe it or not, Mittens had to pour millions of campaign dollars into Michigan just to eke out a 3% win over that guy.

So when you consider his built-in advantages, the money he poured into the state, the attacks he leveled against Santorum, and the dreadful debate performance Santorum turned in last week, Romney’s three-point margin seems a lot less impressive. This was not like Florida, where Romney utterly decimated his chief foe (Newt Gingrich) and posted a lopsided victory. This was a must-win state that Romney threw everything he had at… and managed to win by just three points – apparently with a big boost from early voters, many of whom cast their ballots before Santorum surged into contention.

This suggests that Romney may not get much of a bounce out Michigan – and that he could find himself in big trouble again one week from now on Super Tuesday. The biggest state to vote that day is Ohio, a big Midwest state culturally and demographically similar to Michigan. The latest poll in the Buckeye State, released early on Tuesday, gives Santorum an 11-point lead over Romney, 37 to 26 percent. Maybe those numbers will tighten in the wake of Michigan, but Romney is going to have to fight for it.

So as we discussed last night, it's likely the G-O-TEA primary brawl will continue regardless of how Mittens' surrogates spin last night's results on the cable "news" channels. And as the primary fight goes on, Mittens faces more challenges... Including in the general election should he survive primary season, since he's lurched so far to the radical right that his issue positions are virtually identical to Santorum's.

And this brings us back here to Nevada. We've already seen Joe Heck run away from his BFF on housing. I don't think you need me to remind you why this happened... But hey, what the Heck!



Oh yes, and there's the economy that Mittens & Ricky keep blaming on President Obama. Yep, there's that economy that's now adding jobs here in Nevada, making consumers feel increasingly confident, and one that grew 3% in the fourth quarter of last year (better than most economists' expectations). At this point, I'm sure President Obama welcomes their "blame".

This is probably why Romney, Santorum, and their G-O-TEA buddies in Congress have shifted back to "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy. What's really funny with this is that talk of probing women's private parts, denying civil rights to LGBTQ Americans, dehumanizing Latin@ Americans simply because of their family heritage, and attacking Muslims for just being Muslim is really turning off voters. No, really. No, really.

Yesterday, local Republicans were trying to distract from their many woes plaguing them this month (like their EPIC FAIL of a caucus) by trumpeting a Public Opinion Strategies poll that even Jon Ralston (who likes their Nevada pollster) admitted undersampled Latin@ voters. Yet in Ralston's Sun column this morning, he noted how even this POS poll may spell trouble for the Nevada GOP.

The numbers in the North are fascinating. Berkley and Heller are in a dead heat in Washoe County, and the president’s numbers (56-40) are amazingly strong there. So, is the poll just wrong or is something happening here? Any poll can miss the mark, but folks should not miss what is happening in Washoe, as evidenced by Obama’s ’08 victory there and Reid’s ’10 win. Yes, no analogy is perfect, especially one that might involve Sharron Angle. But Washoe is turning bluer and bluer — Jill Derby and Heller were competitive there twice in congressional races — and even independents there seem more liberal than anywhere else in the state. That could be an ominous harbinger for the GOP.

Strangely enough, that POS poll had Obama and Shelley Berkley underperforming in Clark County while overperforming in Washoe County. Sorry, but I call BS on POS. I honestly do think they had sampling problems this time, so maybe the entire poll has to be thrown out. But even when that's done and we look at recent election results in Washoe County, Ralston is correct that Washoe seems to be trending Democratic. And yes, I also think he's right about independents there being turned off by the radical right G-O-TEA crazy. So when the likes of Romney and Santorum continue to double down on "CUL-CHUR WARZZZ!!!" crazy and economic royalist crap that would make Ebenezer Scrooge blush, Republicans may very well face serious problems in the Reno area this fall. And if that happens, then it's quite likely Nevada will take quite the deep blue hue come this November.

Michigan & Arizona Results Liveblog

5:30 PM-

We're starting to get results from Michigan now, and Rick Santorum has a very early lead. However, note that Oakland County (upper middle class & wealthy northwestern Detroit suburbs) and a few rural counties are just starting to report.

So far, we've seen plenty of spin on how much a win or loss means for Mitt Romney's campaign going forward. However, some seem to forget that Michigan's Republican primary was considered a "gimme" for Romney just a month ago.

A native son of Michigan, where his father served as governor, Romney’s facing high expectations about his ability to beat former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who’s directly challenged him with message focusing on the middle class and a manufacturing revival.

Romney had been expected to easily win here until Santorum upset the former Massachusetts governor in a trio of nominating contests earlier this month. If momentum carries Santorum to victory on Tuesday in Michigan, it would put Romney’s campaign – long considered the favorite among Republicans seeking the nomination – on precarious political footing.

“I think it’s going to be an embarrassment if he does lose. I don’t think it looks good when you win in your home state, but I’m hopeful that he’ll pull it out,” said Julie Wells, a teacher from Birmingham who intends to vote for Romney, at a rally Monday evening in this Detroit suburb.

This really goes to show how volatile the G-O-TEA primary season has become. And it goes to show how hard it's been for Romney to "seal the deal", despite all the media proclamations of Romney being "the presumptive nominee". Perhaps the media pundits really do assume too much?

5:45 PM-

As more results trickle in, we're starting to get a better sense of what's happening in the state. Now this is still early, so everything can change in the next hour. But at least for now, Mitt Romney is leading in Oakland County while Rick Santorum is building a healthy lead in the Grand Rapids area and the Upper Peninsula. Romney is expected to do well in the upscale Detroit suburbs, and Santorum is expected to do well in the Upper Peninsula, but Grand Rapids was expected to be a key swing region. Is this an important tea leaf for tonight?

6:00 PM-

OK, so we get how important Michigan is... So will our next door neighbor finally get some media love tonight? Probably not, since Arizona is about to join us and New Hampshire in "The Foregone Conclusion Club". Still, there may be some analysis on just how high Romney can run up the score. But if Romney somehow gets under 40% in Arizona tonight, there may be even more questions as to if the G-O-TEA base will ever really "be into him".

OK, Romney was just declared the winner in Arizona... But again, we'll have to see how high he runs up the score... And if it's enough to make up for a possible loss in Michigan.

6:15 PM-

So far, NBC News' exit poll suggests Mitt Romney is about to eek out a 3% win in Michigan tonight... So game over? Not quite. Look at the map. Will Romney's strength in the Detroit area be enough to overcome his weakness virtually everywhere else? We'll have to wait and see.

6:30 PM-

Here's TPM with the rundown on what looks to be a possible 2-for-2 night for Romney. Of course his campaign will spin it as good news... But is it?

His win in Arizona was not without its potential costs in the general election. Romney further tacked right on immigration, calling Arizona’s tough law a “model” for the nation in an Arizona debate and accepting an endorsement from the governor who signed it, Jan Brewer. Democrats are hoping that Romney’s continued embrace of a crackdown on undocumented immigrants will help motivate Hispanic voters to turn out in droves for President Obama, potentially putting Arizona in play as a swing state.

It’s for that reason that those delegates might seem little consolation. The main focus of the fight is in Michigan: it’s where both candidates will deliver their speeches tonight. The reason: in many pundits’ eyes this isn’t even a battle he should be having in the first place. This is Romney’s home state; he was born here, his father was governor here, and Romney beat John McCain handily here only four years ago.

Now, though, he’s in a lose-lose situation. Should he lose his birth state to Santorum, then even his close allies admit this could upend his campaign. Romney made something of a preemptive strike on this in an interview with Fox News. He told his hosts that it would be more significant if he “was turned down by Massachusetts” - the state he had lived in for forty years. He also slammed any talk of a brokered convention or of himself slipping out of the fight, framing the race as a drawn-out battle of attrition that was all about the delegates.

It’s the issue of the delegates that make up the next part of the lose-lose scenario for Romney. Because of Michigan’s allocation of delegates by district, he could actually come out of tonight a close second and yet actually have more on hand than Santorum. However, even if he were to win by a slim margin, it’s possible the media will join in the framing that this is still a loss: that the mere fact he’s having such a close contest in his birth state is an intrinsic sign of his weakness as a candidate.

Mittens keeps trying and trying and trying to win over those darned teabaggers with even more radical right rhetoric. Yet with each new flip-flop and "arrogant 1% moment" and "inauthentic moment of blue collar pander", Romney keeps digging himself into a deeper electoral hole. Should he emerge as the Republican nominee, the G-O-TEA may still be in deep doo-doo come November.

6:50 PM-

Dave Weigel posted this and this on Twitter.

daveweigel ‏ @daveweigel Close
This primary will END the RACE. Just like NH did. And SC did. And FL did. And... #MIprimary

6:36 PM - 28 Feb 12 via TweetDeck · Details

daveweigel ‏ @daveweigel
BREAKING: In a couple of days Romney will lose a bunch of primaries to Santorum anyway. #MIprimary

6:36 PM - 28 Feb 12 via TweetDeck · Details

I suspect we'll soon see the Romney campaign declare "VICTORY!" at some point within the next 40 minutes. However, this won't end G-O-TEA primary season. Oh no, I suspect we'll be back here next week to liveblog "SUPER DUPER TUESDAY!!!" It's really about this.

There are 59 delegates up for grabs in Michigan and Arizona Tuesday, but the delegate count is being overshadowed by the nail-biter race in Michigan where Romney could lose the state he grew up in. The outcome in Michigan has taken on an outsized, symbolic importance that will dictate the mood heading into Super Tuesday next week.

In a way, no matter the outcome in Michigan, the damage to Mitt Romney’s campaign is already done. No one knows who will win Michigan tonight, but the fact that it will be incredibly close has weakened Romney’s campaign by underscoring his enduring problems connecting with working class and evangelical voters. This was supposed to be an easy state for Romney, who took it by ten points in 2008’s primary and has outspent Santorum there this time by 2 to 1. Even headlines like Romney barely wins home state will not be doing him any favors. In the same way, as both Republicans and Democrats have commented, Rick Santorum may lose Michigan, but in a sense he’s already won by coming this close.

And now, Santorum has a chance to win outright in Ohio and Tennessee and Oklahoma. As long as Mittens continues to play footsie with teabaggers, and as long as teabaggers continue to play hard to get while flirting with Santorum, this primary fight will go on... And President Obama keeps looking better and better and better. ;-)

We're Taking a Break from "Tax Week"...

Tonight and tomorrow morning to take a look at what happens next door... And in Michigan... As well as what's been happening nationally. It seems like the wheels are falling off "The G-O-TEA Express", especially since it's veered so far to the radical right lately.



Huh?



HUH??!!

Early this month, I thought things looked bad for Republicans after the Nevada Caucus. But as the circus does its final act in Arizona and Michigan before moving to "Super Tuesday Land", the G-O-TEA circus clowns contenders have really lost it... And by "it", I mean the November election. ;-)

The first poll closures happen at 6:00 PM tonight, so I'll be back then to live blog the Arizona & Michigan results, the media spin, and the facts that debunk the spin.

Investing in Our Future Should Be a No-Brainer.

When we hear the G-O-TEA Presidential contenders, we often hear them spewing crap like this.

Climate change denial has become a litmus test for modern Republicans, but Rick Santorum, in his fondness for melding faith and government, has become one of the precious few to cite the Bible as evidence that the science-accepting crowd has it all wrong — and apparently the first to bring that thinking to the presidential stage.

“We were put on this Earth as creatures of God to have dominion over the Earth, to use it wisely and steward it wisely, but for our benefit not for the Earth’s benefit,” Santorum told a Colorado crowd earlier this month.

He went on to call climate change “an absolute travesty of scientific research that was motivated by those who, in my opinion, saw this as an opportunity to create a panic and a crisis for government to be able to step in and even more greatly control your life.”

The surging presidential hopeful fleshed out this argument further this Sunday on CBS Face The Nation, when asked to justify his recent controversial claim that President Obama has a “phony theology” that’s not “based on the Bible.” He said the President sides with “radical environmentalists” who don’t understand what God intended to be the relationship between humans and the planet.

“When you have a worldview that elevates the Earth above man and says that we can’t take those resources because we’re going to harm the Earth; by things that frankly are just not scientifically proven, for example, the politicization of the whole global warming debate — this is all an attempt to, you know, to centralize power and to give more power to the government,” Santorum said.

Wow. So "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is basing all his extremist policies on his extreme theology. Isn't that precious?

Well, at least Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney is basing all his extremist policies on something more commonly seen in politics today: MONEY. That seems to be why Romney is so strongly opposed to the fastest growing industry in America.

The U.S. solar industry grew 102% [in 2010] and [was] on track to grow another 100% [in 2011]. What other industry doubled its growth during one of the worst economic periods in our history?

The GOP has been using the Solyndra debacle to talk about “pet alternative energy.” This nonsense ignores the incredible growth and cost reductions taking place in the solar industry. Since 2008, average PV [photovoltaic] prices have fallen 80%. And with innovative approaches to installation, the total installed cost of installations have fallen substantially as well.

A recent report found that America actually had a $1.9 billion trade surplus of solar products to the rest of the world in 2010. And that same report, put together by GTM Research, found that 73% of the economic value of a solar installation stays in the U.S.

And our next door neighbor is seeing a phenomenal amount of investment in green technology.

When it comes to U.S. venture capital funding for the most promising new green technology firms, there's California and there's everybody else.

California companies raked in $2.8 billion, or 57%, of the $4.9 billion in venture capital offered up in the so-called clean-tech category of funding nationwide last year, according to a recently released analysis from Ernst & Young. [...]

"It's a good indicator of the innovation that can be found here and of the opportunities available in California," said Mark Sogomian, an Ernst & Young partner and leader of its clean-tech group in Los Angeles.

California has that "secret sauce that allows companies to grow and develop and gain capital," Sogomian said. [...]

"Clean-tech is still in the early stages of a long-term journey," Spencer said. "We've reached a point where new products and services are ready to be launched, and as these products come to market, we're seeing renewed interest, innovation and opportunity."

And we've seen for ourselves the potential for green tech to create jobs and restore our economy. Just look at all the potential we have!

It's just too bad that petty politics continues to get in the way of true progress. If Ricky Santorum really doesn't believe in climate change, then he needs to talk to folks in Reno who have experienced its extreme effects firsthand. And he needs to talk to water officials both in Snake Valley and in Las Vegas over the rural Nevada and Utah water they're fighting over (due to the ongoing region-wide Southwestern Drought). We're already seeing the extreme effects of climate change take hold in Nevada.

However, we're also starting to see the effects of action to curb climate change. When we've seen investment in clean energy, we've seen jobs being created. Investment in green technology is truly a "win-win" for Nevada, and for America. And for the likes of Romney and Santorum (and the Nevada politicians who follow them) to oppose something that's such a clear "win-win" for America is downright stupid.

Joe Heck Needs a Reality Check on Women's Health Issues

On Monday, we noted the Republicans increasingly turning to "culture war" issues over fear that they can no longer campaign on a lousy economy (since the economy is actually improving under President Obama's watch). Later in the week, we saw this.



And now, it's becoming increasingly clear what the G-O-TEA crowd are talking about when they say they want to "take our country back".

[Rick Santorum's Super PAC "superhero" Foster] Friess’ comment was astonishing in two ways. First, it derailed the entire contraception debate that Republicans have been desperate to keep about “religious freedom” rather than make it about, well, who does or does not keep her knees together. Second, there wasn’t a woman around who didn’t have a guttural reaction.

“I want to punch that guy in the face,” said one female operative who called me on an entirely unrelated matter. Phone calls and IM conversations for the rest of the day included similar appraisals of Santorum’s biggest financial backer.

So there you have it: modern women being told by Republicans that they’re not qualified to talk about their own sexual health, are dressed like “whores” and probably need birth control because they’re so slutty. And this is just in one day.

Democratic women say this is all part of a general pattern that began in 2010 when the tea party helped Republicans win a congressional election based on jobs and deficits and the Republicans then set about passing new anti-abortion legislation and declaring war on Planned Parenthood once in office. They agreed Thursday stood out, though.

“Republican policies have been stuck in the 50s for a while now. I guess this week they decided they wanted the whole retro package,” said Jess McIntosh, communications director at EMILY’s List. “Darrel Issa, you are no Jon Hamm.”

Indeed, it seems like they want to do a "time warp" back to the 1950s... Or maybe the 1850s?

And no, Nevada, we're not immune from this. In fact, none other than our own "Trust me, I'm a doctor!" Joe Heck uttered these words when asked about insurance coverage of contraception:

"The fact is this has nothing to do with women’s health issues.”

Really? Seriously? How could Joe Heck say that?

I've been wondering when someone else would finally notice this. Yesterday, John Oceguera's campaign did.

Joe Heck opposes requiring all employers to provide insurance coverage for birth control, saying that the issue has “nothing to do with women’s health.” Who is he kidding?

It gets worse. Joe Heck doesn’t think insurance companies should be required to cover the HPV vaccine for women, which can help prevent cervical cancer. In fact, as a member of the Nevada Legislature, Heck even voted against it.

Joe Heck even wants to end the right to choose for women. He’s so extreme that he’s been endorsed by an organization that calls exceptions for women’s health “frivolous”.

Well I’ve got news for you, Joe – your positions are out of touch and bad for Nevada women. As a doctor, you should be ashamed of yourself.

Helping women get access to preventative treatment and family planning services is a moral issue – not a political game. As a son, husband and father, I would never put partisan politics ahead of the health and safety of women.

Well, someone had to say it. We have a whole lot of women here in Nevada who regularly use contraception. Why should they face so many obstacles in accessing it? And why doesn't Heck ever propose putting up the same kinds of obstacles on men accessing Viagra and Cialis?

And what's really funny about Heck going hard-line against birth control, as well as Republicans overall working so hard to antagonize women voters, is that they're not realizing they're losing quite badly on this. Ed Kilgore may ultimately be right about this turning into another "Terry Schiavo moment" of the G-O-TEA overreaching on "culture wars" crap. Again, women regularly use contraception and a number of states, including Nevada, have already passed insurance coverage requirements like the one President Obama will be implementing in the rollout of health care reform.

Steve Benen may have hit the ultimate nail on the head of this.

The first is that the Great Recession wasn't just an economic crisis; it was a disaster that dramatically changed the country's priorities. Going into the 2012 election season, when the public is asked which issues matter most, 2% say immigration, 1% say abortion, 1% say religious values, and 44% say economy/jobs. For a party to ignore this is an invitation to be labeled out of touch.

The second is that Limbaugh's confidence about public attitudes is misplaced. Not only does the American mainstream not want to fight the culture war right now, when pressed, most of the public likes contraception, supports Roe v. Wade, and approves of marriage equality. One could certainly make the case that gun control isn't popular, at least not with key voting constituencies, but since Democrats aren't even trying to change the status quo, it's not much of a campaign issue.

Limbaugh complained on the air yesterday that the Republican establishment "wants no part of" the culture war. There's a good reason for that: GOP leaders can read polls.

And I'll add that I can't think of anywhere else this rings truer than right here in Southern Nevada. Folks here are asking about job openings, home foreclosure prevention, and how to save our middle class. They're not interested in refighting "culture wars" on women's health care decisions and whether to criminalize being gay. If Joe Heck really wants to join his G-O-TEA colleagues & Rush Limbaugh, and declare himself a "culture warrior", then he needs to prepare to lose this next election.

What Do They Have Left? "Culture Wars"?

According to Gallup's latest poll on economic confidence, Americans are increasingly confident in the American economy and our ability to recover from "The Great Recession". And not only are Americans saying this to pollsters, but they're also showing it by buying more products. And that, in turn, allows companies to hire again, which should lead to more good economic news in the near future.

Despite so much pessimism over the economy last year, it looks like America really is making a comeback. And it's happening under President Obama's watch. That's what really scares Congressional Republicans now. As we talked about earlier this month, the G-O-TEA was basing its entire campaign strategy on blaming the horrible state of the economy on Obama. So now that the economy isn't all that horrible any more, what do they have left to campaign on?

Queue Ricky Santorum bashing LGBTQ families and trash talking Washington state's new marriage equality law.



And not to be outdone in the homophobia department, Willard Romney boasted at CPAC last weekend about preventing Massachusetts from becoming "The Las Vegas of Gay Marriage" while he was Governor.



(Jeez, if only we could finally join in on the marriage equality fun!)

Oh, yes. That's right. The "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!!!" are back.

Think about it. House Republicans are apparently caving on the year-long payroll tax cut extension. And already, House Democrats are upping the ante and demanding they end the hostage game on unemployment benefits and Medicare doctor compensation as well. Now that the economy is improving and Republicans don't want to be blamed for causing a relapse into recession, they may now be at least partially retreating from obstruction fights like the one over the payroll tax cut.

So what do they have left to campaign on? Stop that "evil" birth control!

Schisms are emerging within the Republican Party after President Obama’s announcement last Friday that he would tweak his contraception mandate to ensure that religious nonprofits aren’t forced to pay for an employee’s birth control coverage. And as GOP leaders push to repeal the requirement entirely, the White House is welcoming that battle.

The shift is looking like an act of political jujitsu as Obama has not only unified his base but splintered the GOP coalition, which initially appeared united against the President’s rule. Obama won over the Democrats and moderate Catholics who criticized him, while maintaining the support of those who backed the original rule. As an added bonus, he has turned some Republicans who initially opposed his policy against their own leaders.

Splitting from their party leaders are Maine Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both of whom criticized the earlier regulation but praised the shift in carefully-worded statements. Neither would say whether they supported an amendment by their Senate colleague Roy Blunt (MO), which would fully reverse the requirement. [...]

“It appears that changes have been made that provide women’s health services without compelling Catholic organizations in particular to violate the beliefs and tenets of their faith,” Snowe told the Portland Herald Tribune. “According to the Catholic Health Association, the administration ‘responded to the issues [they] identified that needed to be fixed,’ which is what I urged the president to do in addressing this situation.”

But wait, according to Nevada's own "Trust me, I'm a doctor!" Joe Heck, his and most of the rest of hiw fellow G-O-TEA culture warriors' opposition to insurance coverage of birth control has "nothing to do with women's health issues". So even Republican US Senators think the G-O-TEA is going too far on its war on women?

This is the Republicans' new dilemma. As Willard Romney is having to find out the hard way, one can't really acknowledge an improving economy while still saying the President has a bad economic record. So Republicans look to be pivoting back to "culture war" issues like marriage equality and women's health care. However as Americans seem to be having less of a problem with gay couples marrying and women getting insurance coverage for birth control, those issues just don't have the same kind of potency that George W. Bush found with them a decade ago...

Except when it comes to the G-O-TEA base. And that's what's really scaring the Republican extablishment.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

While Mittens' general election poll numbers are falling, Santorum's primary poll numbers are rising. And that may largely be due to the "tea party" base seeing Santorum more as "one of them" than Romney. "The Culture Wars" are back, but the "tea" infused Republican base is leading its party to defeat on them.

Wherein Nevada Is Positioned to Remain a "Blue State" in 2012, Part IV

Last week, I could tell the Nevada GOP was starting to freak out over another Politico story, this time showing how the 26% drop in Republican turnout (from 2008) for the caucus this month may spell deep trouble for Dean Heller this fall in what's likely to be another marquee US Senate race here in Nevada. Republican consultants were immediately doing backflips and pretzel twists to explain that the Republicans' #nvcaucus #FAIL means nothing, absolutely nothing, NOTHING (!!!!!) THEY TELL YOU (!!!!!), for the fall election. Now yes, there probably are quite a few Republican voters who didn't want to caucus, but will want to vote in October or November. However for all the talk about an "energized tea party base" eager to defeat Democrats and elect Republicans up and down and all over the ticket, this year's caucus fiasco does show that the Republicans' "tea party base" really isn't as strong, broad, or energized as we were all led to believe it was in 2010.



In case this isn't bad enough for the G-O-TEA, there's the potentially bigger problem of them alienating everyone outside their increasingly small looking base. Last month, I noted how Dean Heller thought attending a Hispanics in Politics meeting would do wonders for his image... Despite opposing comprehensive immigration reform, and despite opposing virtually everything else that Latin@ voters care about. Apparently last weekend, The Sun finally noticed that Heller faces a growing problem this year over his hard line anti-immigrant record.

“There hasn’t been a competitive race in Nevada where a Democrat lost the Latino vote,” said Andres Ramirez, vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee Hispanic Caucus and an adviser to Berkley. “The question is how high the margin is and how high turnout is.”

Ramirez said Heller had a lot of ground to make up — especially after his well-publicized refusal to attend a scheduled meeting with the Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce because a [Shelley] Berkley staffer was in attendance and Democratic Party members were planning to film the discussion.

“Dean Heller is starting from a negative,” Ramirez said. “It would be one thing if they were on equal footing and competing for Latinos. But Shelley has a long history of working with the Hispanic community. It’s not just immigration but being there on issues of education, health care and other important matters.”

Berkley is engaging the Latino media and is seeking the endorsement of Spanish-language media.

She has contrasted her support for comprehensive immigration reform and sponsorship of the Dream Act with Heller’s opposition to the Dream Act and major reforms to immigration law.

Whoops.

And in case that isn't enough, there's the rest of Heller's record, which also looks increasingly out of step with Nevada. Who can forget his love of bailouts for Big Oil? Or his strong opposition to bringing more good, clean, green jobs right here to Nevada? Or him voting TWICE last year for Paul Ryan's radical Medicare-destroying budget? Or his support for ending Social Security as we know it?

Oh, and it's not just Heller who's in trouble for becoming so out of touch with Nevada's working families. Remember the infamous "Joe Heck town hall" without Joe Heck? And Joe Heck's ridiculous "Destroying America's Trust in Our Economy Act"? And Joe Heck outright lying about his record (and President Obama's) on Medicare? And Joe Heck's infamous declaration of Social Security as a "pyramid scheme"?

Now, Joe Heck is throwing a temper tantrum over the blowback his party has been experiencing over their extreme opposition to contraception. According to Heck, his opposition to health insurance coverage of contraception has "nothing to do with women's health issues"... HUH??!! Is he serious? So making birth control less affordable and accessible to American women now has "nothing to do with women's health issues"? And we're supposed to believe Dr. Heck is an "expert on health care"? On what planet?



So far, it seems like both Heck and Heller are doing all they can to stay on the same page as their G-O-TEA buddies running for President. And while this may help them stay on good terms with the raging teabagger base they want votes from, as well as the "Tea Party, Inc." money men they want campaign donations from, it's only hurting them in the general election. After all, look at President Obama's stunning rebound with independent voters. And look at Obama taking a strong overall lead against both Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney and "Frothy" Ricky Santorum in the new Pew Poll out today. So do Heck and Heller really want to hitch onto that wagon?

As long as they do, Nevada shall remain "Blue"... And President Obama may end up with longer coattails than most pundits in this state had originally expected.

No Se Puede?

So far, it looks like the American electorate in 2012 will be the most diverse electorate our country has ever seen. Earlier today, NALEO released stats to confirm this.

The number of Hispanics who will head to voter booths in November is projected to increase by 26 percent over 2008, a national Latino interest group announced Wednesday.

The bipartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund based its projections on average increases in turnout in previous elections as reported by the Census Bureau.

Hispanic voter turnout in 2008 was 9.7 million, and is expected to reach 12.2 million this year. The interest group said the increased projection is due in part to the estimated 50,000 Latinos who turn 18 each month.

“Latinos continue to reshape the nation’s political map, and the Latino electorate will play a decisive role in Election 2012,” NALEO executive director Arturo Vargas said in a statement.

If the group’s projection holds true, Latinos will account for at least 8.7 percent of the country’s voters in November.

Vargas concluded: “Both presidential candidates and political parties must actively work to engage Latino voters and address the issues they care about. This electorate has shown that it cannot be taken for granted by either party … Latinos played a key role in the 2008 election; they will determine who is sworn in on January 20, 2013.”

So why on earth are Republicans doing everything they can to turn away Latin@ voters? Remember when Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle made her campaign so xenophobic that even Republicans ran away in total disgust?



It now looks like today's batch of G-O-TEA Presidential Candidates are following in her footsteps. And even Republicans are wondering aloud if their Presidential Candidates can tone down the "TEA" flavored xenophobia in time to make inroads with Latin@ voters in the general election.



Now of course, it can be argued that these candidates are just trying to keep up with their "base". After all, they've been demanding a holiday for white people, discriminatory & unnecessary voter ID laws, renewed acceptance of white nationalists, and crazy immigration statutes that cost jobs and hurt the economy. But really, how far must these candidates go to please "the base"?

Look at how far Willard Romney has gone. He's been endorsed by the extreme right Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), the guy perhaps most responsible for Arizona's and Alabama's extreme anti-immigrant statutes as well as someone with well documented ties to white supremacist groups.



Mittens not only opposes comprehensive immigration reform, but he also virulently opposes the DREAM Act, and he's been confronted by Latin@ students over it. And if that weren't bad enough, Romney's economic policies would also hurt Latino families if enacted by stripping away their health care, taking away opportunities to attend college, and destroying Social Security. Oh, and he also has long standing ties to Former California Governor Pete Wilson (R), the guy who ran on the extreme anti-immigrant Prop 187 and ultimately killed whatever chances California Republicans had of ever winning the Latino vote again.

And how are the other G-O-TEA candidates aiming to distinguish themselves from Mittens? Oh, they're also embracing the xenophobia! "Frothy" Ricky Santorum also opposes comprehensive immigration reform, and he's actually gone so far as to endorse mass deportation! Meanwhile, Newton Leroy Gingrich has called Spanish a "language of the ghetto", supports a ridiculous policy on English language that would hurt American business if enacted, and now wants to send tracking devices to undocumented immigrants (HUH??!!). Is there an end to all this G-O-TEA crazy?

Republican strategists must be hoping so, as their candidates' polling numbers among Latinos are becoming absolutely atrocious. Of course, the overall polling data are becoming worse for everyone in the G-O-TEA field. But if they can't close the gap with Latinos, then there's little hope for sustained overall improvement. As we noted above, Latinos are a fast growing part of our electorate. And as long as the likes of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue to bash Latino Americans, they're just sowing the seeds of their own defeat this November.

Muchas gracias, Republicanos, para su estupidez.

Did "Frothy" Just Render Nevada GOP Irrelevant?

Last night, Willard Romney was rejected by another set of voters. This time, Republicans in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado all said they didn't want him as their nominee. The ultimate irony here is that Mittens had won all three states in 2008 when he was "the conservative alternative to John McCain", but now G-O-TEA voters want a "conservative alternative" to him. So can "Frothy" Ricky Santorum really go all the way to Tampa this summer?

It's still unclear how he can really compete against all of Mittens' money as the contest turns to "Super Tuesday". But then again, it's unclear how Mittens can keep proclaiming himself "The Inevitable One" while continuing to lose in critical states. Steve Kornacki reminded us earlier this morning that despite what Mittens wants us to believe, what happened last night matters.

Romney’s campaign knew trouble was coming, which is why they started Tuesday by releasing an expectations-lowering memo that pointed out that John McCain lost 19 individual contests in the 2008 race and emphasized the long game. And they hoped that the fact that no delegates were directly at stake in any contests would lead the media to downplay the results.

But the delegate situation was mostly a red herring. Really, there was no difference between the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and those that were held in Iowa on Jan. 3. In all three states, Republicans gathered at precinct caucuses that officially functioned as the first in a multi-step process to choose national convention delegates. At the local caucuses, Republicans were polled on their presidential preference, with the results not tied to delegate allocation. So if the political world is going to treat Iowa as a legitimate nominating contest, there’s no reason not to extend the same treatment to Colorado and Minnesota.

And while Missouri’s primary truly was a beauty contest (no delegates of any type were selected or allocated), 250,000 Republicans voters still turned out for it. That number is considerably lower than the 2008 total, but it still represents a significant statement by that state’s Republican electorate, especially when you consider that Romney only mustered a quarter of the vote without one of his chief foes on the ballot. [...]

February was supposed to be a cruise control month for Romney – a series of effortless, momentum-building victories that would marginalize his opponents and lead to one emphatic, nomination-sealing sweep on Super Tuesday. Instead, he now faces a real challenge just to make it through the rest of the month, which will include contests in Michigan and Arizona, without any more embarrassments. And the prospect of further setbacks in early March, when Ohio and several Southern states that are culturally ill-suited to Romney will vote, now seems likely.

What’s worse for Romney is that Santorum may get such a boost out of his big night that he further marginalizes Gingrich and gets the one-on-one shot at Romney that he’s long coveted. In this sense, the Missouri result may actually be meaningful; Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot, but it seems that his would-have-been supporters flocked to Santorum. If Gingrich fades out now and Santorum claims the lion’s share of his voters, he could do some real damage – maybe even this month. The flip side, of course, is that Santorum will now experience what Gingrich has faced for the past few weeks: a withering and well-funded assault from the Romney campaign.

And if that isn't crazy enough, consider this. Nevada Republicans jumped through all sorts of ridiculous hoops, and ultimately caved to the RNC and New Hampshire election officials, just to get that shiny little RNC seal of approval for its caucus. So what exactly does the Nevada Republican Party have to show for it? The supposedly "meaningless beauty contests" in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri actually changed the national conversation in a way that Nevada's never did, and now rumors are surfacing that national Republicans are indeed considering yanking Nevada off their early calendar.

Think about it. Nevada Republicans tried their best to put on a glitzy show for the RNC and national media. They staged a big conference in October, one that included a big debate. Yet as soon as they succumbed to "The Great RNC Cave of 2011", which was right after that big conference and big debate, the media stopped caring and the RNC went back to bashing President Obama from DC.

And even as Mittens was basking in the radioactive glow of his Nevada "win", Ricky went on to campaign in "the meaningless states"... And now, "the meaningless states" have upstaged the Nevada G-O-TEA and captured the media's attention.

Great job, Nevada Republicans. You botched your own caucus. You're now begging "Big Government" for a "socialist" state-run primary bailout. And now, a bunch of supposedly "meaningless beauty contests" are getting more attention than your meaningless "fracas caucus" fiasco ever will.