Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Harry Reid on Harry Reid

You know what? This is why that damned guy keeps growing on me.

Despite, or perhaps because of, these precautions, he takes a schoolboy’s delight in acting out, in breaking the rules of a scripted city. At one point last year, Reid announced that the health care vote would be delayed until January no matter what the White House thought, which led Rahm Emanuel to get into his car and arrive at Reid’s office, where after a terse exchange between two terse men, Reid agreed to the White House’s schedule. He referred to angry protesters at town-hall meetings as “evilmongers.” He called George W. Bush a “liar” and a “loser.” When Bush invited Reid for coffee in the Oval Office in the final weeks of his presidency, the president’s dog walked in, and Reid insulted the president’s pet. “Your dog is fat,” he said.

“I’m just who I am, O.K.?” Reid told me before Christmas. “I didn’t take lessons on how to speak on television, and I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about who I am. I don’t like to read stuff about me, but I’ve become accustomed to it: you know, ‘Reid misspeaks.’ I’d rather people were saying, Oh, that guy is a golden-tongued devil.” He paused. “I have no regret over calling Greenspan a political hack. Because he was. The things you heard me say about George Bush? You never heard me apologize about any of them. Because he was. What was I supposed to say? I called him a liar twice. Because he lied to me twice.”

Manley, who was sitting nearby in Reid’s Capitol office, raised his hand to respectfully revise and extend the senator’s remarks. “Just for the record, he did apologize for the loser comment,” he said.

“Yes, but not because he wasn’t a loser,” Reid countered. “It’s because I shouldn’t have said that to a group of kids.” It was a Las Vegas high-school civics class. The apology also came after his most prominent Republican supporter in Nevada, Sig Rogich, a Las Vegas businessman who was a senior adviser to Ronald Reagan, called Reid to tell him that he had crossed a line.

I think this is the key to understanding Harry Reid. He isn't the "typical politician". He revels in making the deals, but just can't handle making love to the cameras.

And of course, Jon Ralston has to point it out this week in his usual curmudgeonly way.

This is the rub in all of this, folks, as numerous analysts, white and black have pointed out. Reid, in his usual clumsy way, was doing what he usually does: Saying what others are thinking, but would never say out loud.

As the Columbia Journalism Review’s Greg Marx wrote Tuesday, “Reid’s use of the word ‘Negro’ was tin-eared and offensive (not to mention, in the context of even a ‘deep background’ interview, incredibly dumb). But unlike Lott, the idea he was expressing amounted to analysis, not a prescriptive political vision. What’s more, his analysis was accurate ... Reid’s thoughts about the nature of Obama’s appeal are backed up by research about how voters perceive black candidates; they are also, as Jeff Zeleny writes (http://tinyurl.com/ycb4f9z) for the Times, consistent with things that Obama himself has said.”

Exactly.

I still find it humorous that Reid has claimed, as Lott did in 2002, a “poor choice of words,” but has refused to say what a better choice would have been. Let me pose a question: What if Reid had actually said, “Barack Obama is not Al Sharpton, so he can win.” Or if he had said, “Obama will not be threatening to white voters as some African-Americans are. He will be much less divisive than Hillary is.”

Folks, that’s what Reid really meant. And how many serious people out there would disagree?

So of course, the kabuki dance of "Reid in peril!" will continue this week... Until the good economic news gains more traction in the media, Sheldon Adelson stirs up his own controversy, and Paris Hilton comes back to town to suck up all the media attention for herself (which I'm sure Reid won't mind now).

And another week goes by in the ongoing saga, or is that so-laughably-bad-it's-good parody of a soap opera, of Harry Reid and the politics of Nevada.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Recovery Is Here? Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish on MGM Mirage As 12/09 Casino Winnings Rise

I guess today is the day to toss out the doom & gloom! Look at the big news today!

Nevada casinos' gambling revenue in November rose for the first time in nearly two years, as casinos won nearly $873.2 million from bettors, state regulators said Tuesday.

Revenues this fiscal year, from July through November, were down 7.9 percent from a year earlier.

State revenues collected in December based on the winnings topped $57 million, up 28.3 percent from $44.4 million in December 2008. Taxes paid on casino winnings account for about 30 percent of the state general fund. [...]

More than half of the November 2009 revenues came from the Las Vegas Strip, where casinos won $473.8 million, up 8.3 percent compared with November 2008. The Strip is down 5.5 percent for the fiscal year through November, gambling regulators said.

And hey, that's not the only good news for today...

November marked the third consecutive year-over-year increase in monthly visitation, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority announced today.

More than 2.9 million people visited Las Vegas during November 2009, an increase of 2.9 percent from November 2008.

Hotel occupancy fell 0.8 percentage points compared to last November, the smallest year-over-year decline since January 2008, the LVCVA said in its monthly report. Citywide occupancy was at 79.2 percent in November 2009 compared to 78.4 percent during the same period last year.

November also brought a year-over-year increase in weekend occupancy for the fourth time in 2009, according to the LVCVA.

Oh, and this news couldn't have come at a better time for MGM Mirage!

Shares of MGM Mirage climbed in premarket trading Tuesday after an analyst upgraded the casino operator, saying its fortunes could be poised to improve if an early recovery in Las Vegas' economy continues.

Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kent told investors in a research note that he was boosting his investment rating on the company to "Buy" from "Neutral," and that its shares have fallen to a point where investors could reap a tidy profit if the company's earnings begin to recover.

"Our expectation (is) that Las Vegas trends will start to get 'less bad' over the next several quarters," Kent wrote in a research note. Corporate finance activities could prompt a relief rally for the shares, as balance sheet issues lessen, he said. [...]

"For the long term, we believe in Vegas and its ability to transform itself and attract more customers," Kent said.

So is everything looking up from here? Apparently.

But is all the bad news over yet? Not so fast. Room rates are still hovering under $93 per night, and total spending is still down.

But at the very least, more signs are finally appearing and telling us that the worst is over and recovery is arriving. This is the third month in a row with year-over-year gains in tourist volume, and this is the first time since 2007 that Nevada casino winnings have actually seen year-over-year gains. Also remember that this is for November 2009... Before CityCenter opened!

And now with Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs betting on MGM Mirage's and Las Vegas' overall success, it's no longer looking so "crazy" to invest in Southern Nevada's future.

And btw, I bet Harry Reid is also breathing a sigh of relief over these new numbers. This also couldn't have come at a better time when the "nothingness scandal" needs to drop off the radar and Nevadans want to see results on the economy.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid Gets Some Help... From REPUBLICANS??!!

Yeah, yeah, yeah... I know it's all supposed to be "doom and gloom" right now about how everyone supposedly hates Harry Reid. Uh-huh.

Well, as I've been saying all along, it won't take long for the "nothingness scandal" to die down when Suzy Lowdown crawls out of her bunker to spew crap like this on Faux News.



Think about what Lowden's reaction says about her raw political instincts.

In a state that after eight years of Bush overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama and rejected John McCain, in a state that is suffering more than just about any other thanks to Greenspan's real estate bubble, she decides to compare Reid's remarks about Obama to remarks critical of Bush and Greenspan?

Not only does it help Harry Reid to remind people that he isn't a fan of Greenspan or Bush, whining somebody getting called "a political hack" or "a loser" won't win Lowden a single vote. In a state with 12.6% unemployment, does anybody care that Trent Lott was forced to resign 8 years ago after praising segregation?

Even if Lowden were right that Republicans are held to a different standard than Democrats, what does that matter to the people of Nevada?

Everybody knows Reid has a brutal road ahead of him, and he clearly hasn't been making it any easier on himself, but with opponents like Sue Lowden, even Reid might be able to win.

Correction: Especially with opponents like Lil' Tark Shark and Suzy Lowdown, Harry Reid can and WILL win.

Oh, and look who's also suddenly appeared to give Harry Reid a helping hand. It's none other than Johnny Casino!

Nevada Sen. John Ensign said Monday it is wrong for his fellow Republicans to call for the resignation of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid over racially insensitive comments he made about President Obama. [...]

Ensign said Monday that Reid's apology was sincere and that the Nevada Democrat regretted how his comments were taken.

"I think we need to get away from this politics of gotcha," Ensign told KKOH radio in Reno.

"I don't think there's a person walking, certainly not a politician out there, that hasn't made comments they regret," he said. "When you make those comments, as long as you take responsibility for your comments and apologize for them, I think people should accept that."

I can't believe I'm saying this... But for once, I agree with John Ensign on something. No really, this may be the classiest thing I've ever seen our other Senator do.

Of course, he later tried to use the false analogy of the 2002 Trent Lott comments... Again, something where there's just no comparison. But putting that aside for now, Ensign knows which way his bread is buttered. He knows that Reid knows. And come on, he can't afford for any more "dirty little secrets" about the Hampton brouhaha to come out.

So with even Johnny Casino wanting to brush it aside, along with the usual GOP circus clown candidates taking teh stupid to a whole new level, maybe the DC Beltway pundits shouldn't be counting Reid out just yet.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Obama Coming to Save Reid? Looks Like It.

Well, so much for all the initial GOoPer celebrations over the death of Harry Reid's political career. It not only looks like President Obama has forgiven him over the much-ado-about-nothing "scandal", but he will be coming here next month to campaign for him!

The White House is about to make another big gesture demonstrating its support for Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader under fire for remarks he made about President Obama’s race.

In February, Mr. Obama will head to Nevada to appear with Mr. Reid, who is facing a tough reelection battle there, aides said today.

The decision by the president to fly to Nevada for the majority leader comes as the Reid operation has made an all-out effort to rally Democrats and African-Americans around Mr. Reid, and to head off a crisis that has grown amid crucial health care negotiations and his own campaign. Several Republican officials – including the chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele – called on Mr. Reid to resign.

Mr. Reid made clear he would not.


Whoops! I guess this story isn't over yet.

Well, hopefully at least the "nothingness scandal" story is...

"Reid-Race-Gate": Mature Adults Move On While GOP & Media Embarrass Themselves

First off, let's start with Sandy Banks saying the obvious in today's LA Times:

Reid was stating a fact, however indelicate and impolitic.

Obama's appearance and avoidance of "Negro dialect" -- except when reaching out to blacks -- allowed white voters to feel comfortable with his politics and his intellect. He seemed more like them than like Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson; less threatening, more like a guy you'd have over for dinner.

Reid expressed regret this weekend "for offending any and all Americans, especially African Americans," with comments he made in 2008 that only now have come to light.

But I don't know why I should be offended.

If anyone is insulted, it should be whites -- whom Reid accused implicitly of being willing to vote for a black man only if he talks like them and is not too black.

I think the next apology ought to come from Michael Steele -- the light-skinned, dialectically flexible African American head of the Republican National Committee.

Steele has called for Reid to step down as majority leader, likening him to Trent Lott, the former Mississippi senator rebuked in 2002 for saying he was "proud" that his state had supported a segregationist candidate in the 1948 presidential election.

That candidate was Strom Thurmond, who famously declared during his White House campaign: "All the laws of Washington and all the bayonets of the Army cannot force the Negro into our homes, our schools, our churches."

Either Steele is playing politics with a combustible case, or he thinks Americans are so incapable of thinking intelligently about race that we can't tell the difference between Lott and Reid.

Now that offends me.


Now this is what I was saying on Saturday, and I'm glad some in the mainstream media are finally starting to say this as well. What Reid said was crude, but ultimately true. Too many white folks are still uncomfortable with politicians that are "too black", and the Obama campaign had to work overtime in 2008 to fight off Republican attempts to portray him as the stereotypical "scary angry black man" and start total racial warfare.

It's just a shame that the corporate media want to focus more on the "gotcha politics" of Harry Reid vs. the GOP and avoid the real story of the frightening racism still plaguing this country.

Peter Beinart also admitted the obvious today.

Is any of this really a surprise, in a country where the extent of one’s blackness, as well as the fact of one’s blackness, has been the basis of oppression for centuries? In the antebellum South, states like Louisiana even maintained special legal categories for “quadroons” and “octoroons,” blacks whose mixed-race ancestry allowed them rights denied their “full-blooded” brethren. And as African Americans generally understand better than whites, that legacy remains alive today. When asked in 1995 why white people liked him so much, Colin Powell replied that “I speak reasonably well, like a white person,” and, visually, “I ain’t that black.”

So if what Reid said was palpably true, why is he in so much trouble? Yes, his use of the word “negro” was unattractive. But overall, his statement was less an example of white racism than an analysis of white racism. He dared to discuss an aspect of race prejudice that people generally find too toxic to publicly discuss. But it should be publicly discussed. Because amid the triumphalism that has followed Barack Obama’s election—the insistence, particularly on the right, that his election proves that racism has all but died out—it is worth remembering that while Obama’s election constitutes racial progress, it is also, peculiarly, testament to how far America still has to go.


Yep, yep, yep. What Reid said is an indictment of continuing white racism, and this is what's really infuriating the radical right.

But above all else, what is this all about? It's a collection of salacious political gossip from a pair of glorified political gossip columnists! Glenn Greenwald really nailed it here.

The book is little more than royal court gossip, churned out by the leading practitioner of painfully sycophantic, Drudge-mimicking cattiness: Time's Mark Halperin. And all of the courtiers, courtesans, court spokespeople (i.e., "journalists") and hangers-on who populate our decadent little Versailles on the Potomac can barely contain their glee over the opportunity to revel in this self-absorbed sleaze. Virtually every "political news" TV show is hyping it. D.C. reporters are boasting that they obtained early previews and are excitedly touting how intensively they're studying its pages in order to identify the most crucial revelations. Just try to contemplate how things would be if even a fraction of this media energy and interest level were devoted to scrutinizing the non-trivial things political leaders do.


Again... Yep, yep, yep. This is just another excuse for the corporate media to gossip about pointless crap while avoiding the real issues still plaguing our society.

What about economic inequality? What about discrimination going on trial with the Prop H8 case? What about our civil liberties possibly being trampled in the name of "airport security"? Oh no, who cares about that when we can talk some more about John Edwards' sex life, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama engaging in a "man fight", Sarah Palin's mysterious fasting, and a new manufactured Harry Reid scandal!

Of course, Republicans will keep trying to milk this manufactured scandal to try to keep alive their chances of toppling Reid this year. Politicos all over the place will keep trying to look into a crystal ball and claim they know exactly how this will affect Nevada politics this year. But no matter what happens next until the media circus eventually ends, let's try to remember what this is really about.

No Mo' Ziser "Zygotes Are People, Too!" Initiative? Yes, They Did.

Finally, we have some good news to start the week. I guess Richard Ziser just suffered another defeat for his extreme right, anti-women agenda.

A Nevada district court judge threw out a proposed "personhood" state ballot measure Friday arguing that the language is "too general in nature."
District Judge James Russell further ruled that the initiative which seeks to extend constitutional protections to fertilized eggs has sweeping implications for reproductive health care and thus violates state law which limits initiatives to a single subject.
"There's no way for the voter to understand the effects of the initiative," Russell said.
Silver State anti-choice activists have been pushing a constitutional amendment that proposed to upend the law with a scant 14-word sentence: "In the great state of Nevada, the term ''person' applies to every human being."
Critics charge the hazy wording was meant to shadow its true intent to ban abortion, contraception, in-vitro fertilization and embryonic stem cell research.

Of course, Ziser's minions tried to compare health care professionals and women in need of reproductive health care to Nazis... But it looks like more level heads prevailed.

Taking a decidedly less bombastic approach, ACLU of Nevada attorney Lee Rowland argued on behalf of Planned Parenthood of Nevada and three plaintiffs that the constitutional amendment would have broad repercussions for reproductive health. She refuted the so-called simplicity of the language as a legal nightmare.
The judge agreed with Rowland ruling that the petition language didn't meet the test of state ballot law. It has "complex implications." said Russell.
"Today's decision rightfully prevents this sweeping and misleading initiative from being placed on the 2010 ballot,” said Rowland in a prepared statement by the ACLU and Nevada Advocates of Planned Parenthood Affiliates following the ruling.
“This initiative could have impacted literally thousands of laws, inviting lawyers and the courts to reinterpret every Nevada law and regulation that contains the word ‘person’ all at the expense of Nevada taxpayers. The key problem is that it covered too many issues, and failed to explain to voters its intent and impact on Nevada law."

Thankfully, the court did the right thing and tossed out this frivolous initiative. We really don't need any more ridiculous challenges to women's rights and women's ability to make their own decisions on their own health care.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

More on the Incredibly Ridiculous "Reid-Race-Gate" & What Actually Matters Here

Seriously, people, stop getting caught in the latest "scandal-du-jour" nonsense and realize the real news behind this DC Beltway gossip! If even Shermie can admit that Harry Reid is not a racist, I think it's time to put aside the much ado about nothing and get back to business.

But while the politicos are still hyperventilating over this crap, let's examine the real issue at hand. Dr. Boyce Watkins explains this pretty well at The Grio:

I am not light-skinned. Also, despite being the only African-American in the world to earn a PhD in Finance during the year 2002, I confess that I sometimes speak with a "Negro dialect." Therefore, according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, I would never, in a million years, be qualified to run for president.

I don't think that Senator Harry Reid is a racist. Although Reid seemed to think that President Obama could win the election because he is "light-skinned" and speaks with very little "Negro dialect," he wasn't necessarily giving his own opinion. Rather, he was giving his assessment of the preferences of the American public. (Emphasis mine.)

We might be able to argue that Reid was engaging in "racist white male dialect" by using terms like "negro," but I can almost forgive him for that. Like most politicians, he is a bellwether of public opinion and an accurate reflection of the "political pulse" of the white American voting population.

Like Harry Reid, many black people across America have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps and worked hard to become successful. I identified with Reid when I read his life story, for he has overcome more than most of us could ever imagine. What is saddest about Reid's commentary, however, is that it reminds many African-Americans across the country that if our speech patterns or appearance are "too black" (whatever that means) or too different from what some consider acceptable, we are going to be deemed inferior. It seems that looking, sounding and behaving like a white man is the only way I might be considered to be as good as a white man. That is White Supremacy 101.

You don't have to be a racist to embrace white supremacist thinking. You don't even have to be white, since many African-Americans also believe that whites are superior. White supremacy is reflected throughout the American experience, whether it is conservatives spewing disdain for single black mothers, or paternalistic liberals who feel they are doing black people a favor by supporting African-American causes. Black scholars feel this burn through the academic imperialism that devalues African-American scholarly work, so Harry Reid's words are painfully connected to the day-to-day challenges that black people face all across America.

Again, why aren't we talking about this? Why aren't we calling out the ingrained racism of our political system? And why aren't we calling ourselves out for punishing those we think are acting "too black" or
"too Mexican" or "too Muslim" or "too bitchy" or "too gay"?


It's easy to just dump on Reid for saying something that's embarrassing. And again, it was inappropriate and Reid will probably have to spend the rest of this weekend, and perhaps a good part of this month, digging out of this hole and making amends for this statement. But again, the bigger issue here is the actual content of what was said, the saddening assessment of race relations in America today.

And finally... Even Mr. Shermie R-J himself is backing away from this nonsense, so why must we go on and on talking about stupid nothingness like this?! Either talk about the real issue or move on already.

The Real News of the "Racial Reid Gaffe": Racism Still Exists in America

OK, so it's everywhere. It's the big revelation of the weekend. It's the latest scandal-du-jour. Supposedly, Harry Reid is now a racist because he said this.

"He (Reid) was wowed by Obama's oratorical gifts and believed that the country was ready to embrace a black presidential candidate, especially one such as Obama - a 'light-skinned' African American 'with no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one,' as he said privately. Reid was convinced, in fact, that Obama's race would help him more than hurt him in a bid for the Democratic nomination," they write.

So is he a racist? He may have been insensitive and inappropriate, but I doubt Reid is some secret KKK wizard.

However, I do think this gets us to a larger point on racism in America.

Think about it. How was Barack Obama elected President despite other African-Americans, like Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and Carol Moseley-Braun, losing and not even making it through the Democratic Primary? Obama's campaign had to carefully maneuver around the institutionalized racism of American politics.

Supposedly, we're now supposed to be this "post-racial society" where racism and racial tension are things of the past. However, the reality of today's America doesn't show this. Instead, it seems like we still play this "race charade" where we act like there's no problem and we're all "post-racial", but in reality so much of the straight white Christianist male "ruling class" has this "heart of darkness" that still holds these nasty prejudices about people who don't look like them (racial minorities, women, LGBTQ people, immigrants, people of different faiths/no faith, etc.).

If anything, it seems to me like Harry Reid was just crudely, but correctly, blurting out this horridly brutal reality of the institutional racism still corrupting American politics. After all, remember what the Republicans tried to throw at Obama in 2008?

So did Harry Reid commit another stupid gaffe? Yes. Will it cost him the election? I'm not sure yet, but I'm doubting it? Will the Republicans use it to death? Of course.

But more importantly, this just shows that racism is still alive and kicking in America... But will anyone actually address the real issue at hand?

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Consumer Electronic Show Is Back in Vegas... And More Business Is on the Way in 2010?

Is this the start of something good?

The 2010 Consumer Electronics Show isn’t exactly like old times, but the Las Vegas tourism industry has geared up for it with high hopes.

The kickoff event of the city’s 2010 convention calendar is expected to be attended by some 110,000 people — an increase from earlier projections of 100,000 but slightly behind the 111,000 last year.

The event, produced by the Washington-based Consumer Electronics Association, brings the newest, flashiest and glitziest gadgets to a four-day showcase at the Las Vegas Convention Center, the Las Vegas Hilton, the Renaissance Hotel and the Venetian’s Tower Suites.

Other hotels planned spin-off activities and special gatherings to accommodate what annually is one of Las Vegas’ largest trade shows.

And CES won't be the only gig in town this week... Look who's coming along with it!

It seems like a marriage that could only happen in Vegas: the overlapping conventions of the Consumer Electronics Show and the Adult Entertainment Expo.

The two groups of conventioneers couldn’t be any more different in appearance, but for one week in January, their worlds collide. Rubbing elbows in the hallways of the Venetian this week are tech geeks with their smartphones and laptops and scantily clad women with their own toys in hand. [...]

So the Adult Video Network, sponsor of the adult expo, keeps scheduling its event for the same time frame as CES — for an annual rendezvous in Las Vegas, so it can get as much money as it can off its former live-in companion.

More than 100,000 people attended the technology show, and most are men. Apparently, a lot of the geeky are a little freaky. According to a recent survey, 42 percent of adult expo attendance comes from CES, Devlin says. Last year’s adult expo lured more than 20,000 fans and conventioneers, organizers said.

“Adult entertainment fans come in all varieties,” Devlin notes.

Only in Vegas, baby.

And it looks like this may only be the start to a better 2010. Remember in October when Las Vegas Sands confounded us by sounding so upbeat about 2010 while simultaneously reporting its beating taken in 2009? And remember when MGM Mirage started following Harrah's lead in courting conventions and convention-goers more aggressively? Oh, and remember all the events going on during what was supposed to be a "quiet" December?

Well, it may finally be starting to pay off... Even if it means we "steal" convention business away from places like San Diego and Chicago with less capacity and more expensive lodging.

And at this point, we need all the business we can get if Vegas plans to recover in 2010. We need whatever we can find, and hopefully all this aggressive pursuit of conventions will be paying off for Las Vegas... Now excuse me while I check out that new 3-D TV with high-speed internet at CES. :-p

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Will Marijuana Finally Be Legalized by 2012?

So far, it has a 0-3 record of losses... But will this time be different?

Backers of a new effort to legalize marijuana in Nevada plan to file an initiative petition to qualify for the 2012 ballot.

A group called Nevadans for Sensible Marijuana Laws say they will file the paperwork with the secretary of state’s office in Carson City on Wednesday. They plan a news conference at 1 p.m. outside the Capitol to discuss details of their proposal to tax and regulate marijuana.

Organizers will need to gather 97,002 signatures by November to send it to the 2011 Legislature. If lawmakers fail to act, it would be put to voters in 2012.

We really should legalize marijuana in this state. It's embarrassing that our supposedly "libertarian, freedom-loving state" still hasn't changed these archaic and draconian drug laws.

Cannabis has been used medicinally for countless generations. It's safer to use than tobacco or alcohol. So why are we still arresting so many people and overcrowding our prisons over it?

Let's hope the madness ends soon and cannabis can be legalized so that we can stop overcrowding the prisons and let people live their lives in peace.

Ralston's Odds on 2010... What He's Saying Now & My Take on It

Remember when Jon Ralston released his latest odds on 2010 in September and I added my $0.02? Well, it's time to do it again! He just released his latest 2010 predictions, and as usual I'll be adding my thoughts below:

- Ralston expects Harry Reid to survive this year and remain Senate Majority Leader next year. I agree, since we know how incompetent the GOoPers have proven themselves to be.

- Ralston thinks Sue Lowden will survive the GOP primary to win the honor of losing to Harry Reid this fall. And on this, I may just have to disagree. Sure, she has a slight lead in the polls now... But Danny Tarkanian seems to be more of a radical right favorite, Lowden still isn't trusted by so many in her own party, and Sharron Angle is gaining fast on both of them. Right now, I'll say Lil' Tark Shark has a slight edge over Lowden with Angle fast becoming a real upset possibility (which I'm sure the Reid campaign will REALLY appreciate!).

- Ralston says Brian Sandoval is favored to become our next Governor. And again, I'll have to disagree for now. No one really knows yet what will become of Rory Reid's game changing Clark County shake-up plan. And of course...

- Ralston is not expecting... Or should I say, he doesn't want Oscar Goodman to run for Governor as an Independent. And again, I'll have to disagree. Goodman already changed his voter registration, fought with Culinary and the public employee unions, and started speaking up more often on controversial state issues like statewide legalization of prostitution. Basically, it sounds to me like Goodman is running for Governor, he's doing so his way, and he doesn't care if Sandoval and Reid, Jr., have hurt feelings.

- Ralston expects Dina Titus to defeat Joe Heck and hold onto NV-03. I'll agree here, since I live here, I'm getting to know the district, and I just think our district is trending away from the GOP. The Democratic registration edge alone should be enough to prevent the GOoPers from becoming haughty... But they already have, and their pride is coming before the fall (again).

- Ralston says that Democrats will keep both houses of the Legislature. I agree, although I want to wait and see all of who's running where before I start making specific numerical predictions.

- And finally, Ralston thinks Republicans will hold a majority of the statewide constitutional offices. I'm not sure yet, as (like above) I want to see all the candidates before laying any bets here.

So in summary, this will be a very interesting 2010. It may be a somewhat bad year for Democrats, or it may be yet another chance for the Republicans to embarrass themselves. As the year goes on, we'll get a better idea of what to expect.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

NV-Gov: Is Rory Reid Becoming Viable... Or Losing His Own Base? And Is He Even Doing What's Right for Clark County?

So Rory Reid released his "county rescue plan"... Just as the political chatter has been about whether he has any chance of becoming Nevada's next Governor and just as the federal courthouse shooting was rocking all of us in Las Vegas yesterday.

So what exactly did Rory Reid propose? Steve Sebelius explains the policy.

Toward the end of Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid’s news conference today — the one where he announced several government reforms — he allowed that the political fallout could cut either way. “I think it’s impossible to measure the political impact [of the reforms],” he said. “It might help me, it might hurt me.” But, he said definitively, “I was elected to do a job.”
Indeed, he was. And, if nothing else, you’ve got to give Reid credit for speaking up when he did, when staying silent might have been the more politically prudent course.
As for the substance of his proposals, it’s a quick list when one boils it down to specifics:
Transform University Medical Center into a non-profit, or a teaching hospital, “…or another financially viable model.” Since the county ran a deficit at UMC of $140 million in the last fiscal year, the number of “financially viable models” appear fairly limited.
Re-open public employee union contract negotiations. This is the most politically perilous of Reid’s suggestions, although it’s not something new. (He asked for concessions last year, too.) Of this year’s move, he said that “our labor agreements are not sustainable in the long term” and that “everything’s on the table.” For unions that have won good contracts during boom times, that’s not so good. And for Reid, running for governor and needing all the help he can get, it’s not exactly the way to win an endorsement.
Put about $300 million in public works infrastructure projects out to bid as soon as possible to create jobs.
Consolidate some IT, finance and human resources employees. (Apparently, many county departments each have their own IT, HR and finance employees.)
Past that, there were some semi-vacuous sound bites, things about “public-private partnerships” to create jobs, or “partner with the private sector to create jobs.” (Hey, that’s a great idea! Why, if only somebody said that a year ago, we’d probably all be rolling in cash right now!) But there was enough of substance to make it worthwhile for Reid to hold the news conference the day before he’ll bring these ideas before his colleagues.

Now of course, this isn't just about policy. It's also about the politics of the Governor's race. Rory Reid obviously thinks this is how to convince those skeptical-yet-still-undecided "fiscal conservatives" that he isn't some "evil lib'rul SOCIALIST union pawn!!111!!!1111!" And who knows, maybe this will work out for him.

But last I checked, labor unions are typically among Democrats' strongest supporters and partners. How will they feel about being dumped upon like this? Sure, it's not like Oscar Goodman, Brian Sandoval, or (especially!) "Luv-Guv" Gibbons is more likely to do anything to help working families. However, Reid, Jr., may be risking turning what should be his political base apathetic and more willing to stay home or vote "None of the Above" than vote for anyone at all.

And turning back to policy, I'm not totally convinced that turning UMC private will be helpful to anyone at all. After all, no matter what happens to UMC, Clark County still has the obligation of providing emergency care to the indigent.

Now regarding the county workforce, there certainly are redundant positions and departments (and especially management!) that can be streamlined and consolidated. However, there's no reason to demonize so many hard-working public servants and strip away their very livelihood. It's easy to bash "the evil, corrupt UNIONS!!!!11111!!!111!", but it takes real courage to be rational and strike a deal that's fair to these public servants while also preserving the services that Clark County residents rely upon.

So politically, I think there are risks. And policy wise, I think there are risks. But if Rory Reid somehow pulls it off while not gutting county government and/or throwing thousands more people into the unemployment lines, maybe this will all work out. And whatever happens next, this most certainly will be a game changer in the race for the state house.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Betting on MGM Mirage's (& Las Vegas')... SUCCESS? T. Rowe Price Is. For $277 MILLION!

Oh yes, you heard me right. The Baltimore investment firm is now investing a grand total of $277 million in MGM Mirage. But why, especially when so many are still expecting MGM Mirage to fail?

Apparently, we Americans love spending money so much that T. Rowe Price is expecting us to stop being tightwads and have more fun once it becomes clearer the economy is recovering.

[T. Rowe Price portfolio manager Joseph] Fath’s optimism for MGM Mirage is mainly based on macroeconomic trends, such as recent growth in the gross domestic product, rather than any grand company strategy. Lately, he has been poring over such mind-numbing statistics as retail inventories and manufacturing shipments — data that seem far removed from the glitz and salesmanship of the Strip.

In a phone interview, Fath said he thinks the figures serve as signals of business demand and an eventual indicator of whether Joe and Jane Pittsburgh — or their counterparts in, say, China — will splurge in Las Vegas.

“I feel better than I ever have this year,” Fath said with an audible sigh of relief that sounded out of place on the other end of the phone line, in the nation’s foreclosure capital.

“Things are absolutely better than they were six months ago. Job losses are slowing and home foreclosures are starting to clear. This will be a delayed recovery. But it’s a question of how fast things pick up and what that looks like.”

Some have made similar comments. But what sets Fath apart from the many skeptics who fear for MGM Mirage and Las Vegas tourism in general is his continued belief in a tenet of American culture: “This is a consumption nation. As people’s balance sheets get better, they will spend more.”

Even though Fath admitted later in The Sun's story that he thinks MGM Mirage went in too deep with CityCenter, he now also thinks expectations have been set so low that a modest profit for their new project will be enough to restore confidence in the company, and in Las Vegas... Despite still feeling bearish on other gaming companies with debt problems, like Harrah's Entertainment, Las Vegas Sands, and Station Casinos.

Given lowered financial expectations for CityCenter, the property, he said, only has to generate a modest profit for MGM Mirage stock to benefit. CityCenter will hurt the lowest-performing and least competitive properties, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Strip or MGM Mirage, which owns several of the Strip’s more profitable resorts, he added. [...]

MGM Mirage will seek to refinance its heavy debt load, while likely taking cash out of CityCenter in exchange for debt on the mostly equity-financed project, Fath said. “There’s still heavy lifting to do, but the nasty stuff is done.”

This year will be bumpy, he warns, with business likely to grow in the second half of the year and into next year. “The average Joe needs to feel better about things and for that to happen, things like employment and housing prices need to pick up.”

And yet, many Strip resorts, especially those owned by MGM Mirage, have been able to maintain high occupancy rates by offering unprecedented deals. Thirty-five million visitors flocked to Las Vegas this year in a crummy economy.

“The demand is there. They need to book business at higher rates. But a lot of operators are scared to raise rates,” Fath said.

Well, casino operators have had good reason to be afraid of raising rates. In the dark, hard times of 2009, they had to lower rates just to fill the rooms and cut their losses. If even Steve Wynn agreed to do it, then what else could they have done?

However, things may be changing. Vegas room rates for New Year's Eve 2009/10 were up 4% over NYE 2008/09, and a number of hotels, from Aria to Paris to Sam's Town to The M, were all sold out by December 30. Now we're still nowhere near 2007 room rate highs, but occupancy looks to be flat... Which is a minor miracle of its own, considering all the new hotel rooms added last year on The Strip (CityCenter, PHo Westgate), on Paradise (Hard Rock's new towers), and in Henderson (The M Resort).

So perhaps we finally hit rock bottom at some point in 2009 and are poised for some kind of comeback in 2010? I hope so, and it looks like T. Rowe Price is betting so with its bet on MGM Mirage. And looking at the first tea leaves for 2010, perhaps better days lie ahead in the new year.

Friday, January 1, 2010

2010: What's Next

Happy New Year... Or will it be? Oh, I think so.

Over the next few days, I'll be collecting on my thoughts on what may lie ahead in 2010. Now that we're done looking back in 2009, we can now look forward.

In the mean time, here's what I'm looking forward to in 2010:

- Harry Reid surviving yet another Senate reelection campaign, thanks to a major victory on health care and an improving Nevada economy (as well as the total incompetence of the GOP).

- Continued turbulence in the Governor's race... Already declared one of the most interesting in the country, and this was BEFORE Oscar Goodman jumped into it!

- CityCenter continuing to prove itself as more of the complex opens to the public and the entire project defines its own identity.

- What happens next with the Station Casinos bankruptcy, and whether Boyd Gaming will ultimately conquer (most of) Station.

- Whatever will happen to The Cosmopolitan, Fontainebleau, Echelon, and all the other stalled projects on The Strip.

So what are you thinking about 2010 so far? What do you think will happen to the gaming industry and tourism? And will Nevada ever diversify and allow new industries and new ideas in?

Let's see what happens in the year ahead.

Happy New Year, Nevada!



:-D