The Numbers Don't Lie.

It's been a while since the last time we examined the voter registration numbers. But with another big election looming, we figured it's time to take a look at what's been happening lately.

Back in July 2012, Nevada Democrats had a 4.43% voter registration advantage (or around 47,500 raw votes). In July 2014, Nevada Democrats closed the month with a 64,983 raw vote lead. That means Nevada Democrats now have a 5.49% voter registration advantage.

For Clark County overall, Democrats now have a 13.29% advantage and 106,742 raw vote lead. In NV-03, Democrats now have a 1.1% advantage and 3,520 raw vote lead. And in NV-04 (overall, not just Clark County), Democrats now enjoy an 11.38% advantage and 33,546 raw vote lead.

And in case you were wondering about the hottest Nevada Legislature races of the year, here are the numbers to keep a close eye on. In the Summerlin South based State Senate District (SD 8), Republicans now have a mere 16 raw vote lead, which is so tiny that we have to go all the way to the thousandths to reach a percentage (0.003%). But in nearby SD 9 in the Southwest Vegas Valley, Democrats have jumped to a 3,628 raw vote lead, or a 6.53% registration advantage. And in the Henderson based SD 20, Republicans now stand at a mere 468 raw vote lead, or a 0.01% voter registration advantage.

Of course, the numbers can change some more in the next 10 weeks. The voter registration numbers certainly experienced some change during the final weeks of the 2012 cycle.

Early this year, some were wondering how Nevada Democrats could get their act together in a midterm year with no top of the ticket fireworks. Now, we have a better sense of how they may just pull it off. The numbers don't lie.

First Weekend of Early Voting Turnout Report

In case Saturday didn't provide enough drama and surprise, we can see even more amazing numbers in today's early vote report. Here's where we stand after the first weekend of early voting:

- In Clark County, 22.46% more Democrats than Republicans voted early in the first two weekend. To put things into perspective, Democrats finished with a 14.96% voter registration advantage earlier this month.

- In NV-03, Democrats built a 9.42% turnout advantage this past weekend. Here, Democrats closed voter registration with a 2.11% registration advantage.

- In the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats so far have a 29.39% turnout advantage. For all of NV-04, Democrats finished with a 13.27% registration advantage.

- We also saw interesting early voting turnout numbers in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats reached a 12.90% turnout advantage. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats hit a 20.09% turnout advantage. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats reached a 9.93% turnout advantage. And in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Democrats reached an 8.04% turnout advantage. With the one exception of SD 9, Democrats dramatically overperformed voter registration in all the other competitive Senate seats.

- And finally, after two days of early voting Democrats have so far managed to produce a 9.79% turnout advantage in Washoe County. Early this month, Republicans (!!!) actually closed with a tiny 0.005% voter registration edge.

So in the first two days of early voting here in Nevada, Democrats have run up a major turnout advantage in the two most populous counties in the state. This is certainly a good start for them. So what's to come this week? We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Nevada Democrats Finish with 7.17% Voter Registration Lead

Yes, you read the headline correctly. The final voter registration report is here. And here's what's in it:

- Statewide, Nevada Democrats now have a 90,187 raw vote advantage. And yes, that makes for a 7.17% advantage. Back in March, Democrats only had about a 4% statewide edge. And it was even smaller earlier this year.

- In Washoe County, Republicans' voter registration edge has narrowed even further. It's now a mere 1,169 raw votes, or 0.005%. In March, Republicans had a 1.76% edge.

- In Clark County, Democrats are closing with a 127,471 raw vote lead, or a 14.96% advantage. In March, Democrats had an 11.68% advantage countywide.

- In NV-03, Democrats are closing with a 7,066 raw vote lead, or a 2.11% edge. In March, Republicans actually had a tiny 0.01% edge.

- In NV-04, Democrats are closing with a 41,094 raw vote lead, or a 13.27% advantage. In March, Democrats had a 9.91% advantage.

- There are also some eye popping numbers in the key State Senate Districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats have gone from a mere 3.92% registration edge in March to a 5.38% lead now. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats have gone from a 4.36% advantage in March to a 7.12% lead now. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats have risen from a 4.86% lead in March to an 8.10% advantage now. In the West Reno based SD 15, Republicans have gone from a 2.04% edge in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now. And in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans have fallen from a 2.39% advantage in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now.

So clearly, all of Nevada Democrats' hard work in the field paid off considerably. Now, it's all about turnout. And there's already been quite a lot of work to prepare for that.

Democrats Top 7% Voter Registration Advantage Statewide

Ralston broke the news just moments ago. Nevada Democrats almost hit the magic 90,000 mark in raw vote lead today... And the count is not over quite yet!

Here's where we stand now:

- Statewide, the exact Democratic registration lead is 89,605, or 7.15%. In last Friday's statewide report, it stood at 6.93%.

- In Washoe County (Reno-Sparks Metro), Republicans have gone from a 0.68% (or 1,620 raw vote) edge to a mere 0.005% barely there edge (!!!), or 1,172 raw votes.

- And as noted yesterday, Democrats are nearing a very healthy 15% registration advantage in Clark County (Metro Las Vegas).

So it's virtually guaranteed that Nevada Democrats will finish with a voter registration advantage of over 7% and 90,000 raw votes. To further put things into perspective, Nevada Democrats had about 100,000 more voters than Republicans at the end of registration in 2008, and about 60,000 more voters at the end of registration in 2010. Now, it's all about the ground game.

Oh, and by the way, here's what Ralston had to say about that.

MarkHalperin

@RalstonReports on MSNBC: comparing D and R ground game in NV is like comparing "a Ferrari to a Matchbox car." yourmetaphorsmatter

Retweeted by Jon Ralston 8:41am - 15 Oct 12

Need I say more?

Clark County Voter Registration Pointing to Strong Finish by Nevada Democrats

Last week, we saw the fruit of all that hard labor in voter registration that Nevada Democrats took part in. But wait, there's even more! In this week's Clark County report, we probably have at least 98% of the final voter registration forms in Southern Nevada reported. And here's what we find:

- Countywide, Democrats now have 126,949 more registered voters than Republicans. That makes for a 14.95% Democratic registration advantage here in Clark County. Just last Monday, Democrats had a 14.32% (or 119,314 raw vote) voter registration advantage.

- Democrats are also closing strong in the two key Congressional races here. In NV-03, Democrats rose from a 5,483 raw vote (or 1.66%) registration advantage last Monday to a 6,899 raw vote (or 2.06%) advantage. And in the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats soared from a 44,252 raw vote (or 16.90%) advantage last Monday to a 47,029 raw vote (or 17.61%) lead now.

- Democrats are also finishing well in the key State Senate races which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' advantage rose from 4.97% last week to 5.33% today. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage rose from 6.67% last week to 7.12% today. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage rose from 7.64% last week to 8.06% today. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans actually held steady... In clinging onto their tiny 0.01% "barely there" edge.

As you can see above, overall Democrats made even more astounding gains in voter registration in Southern Nevada as the high backlog of forms last week was being processed, along with the "in person" registrations that were allowed. But as registration officially comes to a close tomorrow, we should finally know the full and final statewide registration numbers later this week. But so far after looking at the tea leaves here in Clark County, Nevada Democrats may very well end up with a 90,000 raw vote edge, or 7% voter registration advantage. And considering where they started in March, it's been quite an amazing ride.

Nevada Democrats Nearing 7% Voter Registration Advantage

On Monday, we discussed the incredible voter registration gains that Nevada Democrats have achieved. Apparently, they're still not done gaining yet! Ralston just leaked the new statewide numbers with county breakdowns.

The Democrats now have a larger voter registration edge over Republicans in populous Clark County than in 2008, when the party swept to top-to-bottom victories.

The numbers continue to make Mitt Romney's path to victory very difficult and Dean Heller's road to a full Senate term quite problematic. [...]

The latest Clark County numbers show the Democrats now have a 125,441-voter lead. It was 125,218 in '08. Considering how different the world is -- not so hopey and changey -- that is remarkable.

The statewide edge, as of yesterday, is a little more than 86,000. And they are still counting thousands of new registrations in Clark

Just since Monday's report, Democrats' registration advantage grew from 14.32% to 14.88% as more registration forms have been processed. And apparently because the Clark County Election Department still (!!!) processing voter registration forms turned in last week, this may not even be the end of it.

Oh, and then there's Washoe County. Just since Tuesday's official Secretary of State report, Republicans' advantage in Washoe shrank some more, slipping from 1.03% (or 2,385 raw votes) to a mere 0.68% (or 1,620 raw votes). It looks like Democrats are also making big gains in the Reno area.

And again, we're not even done yet. More registrations up north and down south need to be counted. So keep that in mind when examining the current 86,325 raw vote advantage for Nevada Democrats. That makes for a 6.93% Democratic advantage statewide. If Democrats keep gaining on Republicans at a rate even close to what we've been seeing since the start of the summer, Nevada Democrats will probably close with a 7% statewide voter registration advantage.

Next week, we should finally see the full, official, and final registration report from the state. But in the mean time, there's growing evidence showing just how strong of a position Democrats are to keep Nevada a Blue State.

Why Nevada WILL Remain a Blue State This Fall

So we now have a better sense of what the final voter registration totals will be. While we must wait a few more days for the final official statewide report, the Clark County (Metro Las Vegas) numbers point to a very strong finish for Nevada Democrats, which guarantees an 80,000+ raw vote Democratic advantage statewide. Just in the last week, Democrats expanded their registration advantage in Clark County from 109,305 voters (or 13.67%) to a whopping 119,314 voters (or 14.32%) just in the last week! And considering Nevada Democrats had a statewide lead of 71,561 (or 6.03%) voters last Tuesday, this kind of gain in the state's most populous county puts Democrats right where they want to be to hit the magic 80,000 marker.

So how have they been making this happen? Let me explain.





See the above photos? This was the scene at the Cowboy Barbeque in Old Town Henderson. Typically, one wouldn't expect multitudes of Democrats to register to vote here. However, Nevada is not some "typical state" and this was no typical event. Between the Nevada State Democratic Party (NV-Sen/NV-03) Coordinated Campaign volunteers and local Obama campaign volunteers, there was no corner of the event left uncovered. And believe it or not, people kept popping up to register to vote... With the bulk of them being Democrats!

And that wasn't even the start or the end of it. For 36 hours, Democratic organizers and volunteers were pounding the pavement everywhere from DMV offices to shopping malls to parks to big events like the local Renaissance Faire (no, really!) to register more voters. And in the end, all of this hard work looks to be paying off... In a very BIG way!

So what is the result of all this relentless hard work? Take a look at the key swing districts. In the Southern Vegas Valley based NV-03 swing district, Democrats expanded their registration edge from 3,402 raw votes (or 1.08%) to 5,483 (or 1.66%). In the Clark County portion of the other key swing Congressional seat that's the new Northern Vegas Valley based NV-04, Democrats expanded their advantage from 40,557 raw votes (or 16.15%) to 44,252 (or 16.90%). And remember that these are important races that will determine control of Congress next January, so gains here help on multiple levels.

But wait, there's more! Democrats also made even more big gains in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' edge grew from 4.51% to 4.97% in just the last week. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage grew further from 5.83% to 6.67%. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew some more in the last week from 6.95% to 7.64%. And finally in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans' edge was almost entirely wiped out in just one week, falling from 1.60% to an infintesimal 0.01%! And remember, Democrats only need to win two of these four seats (or one of these seats and the Washoe County based SD 15) to keep the State Senate.

All in all, Democrats rocked the final week of "anywhere, anytime" voter registration. (Only in person registration at county offices will be allowed until the 16th.) Oh, and Nevada pundit/political insider extraordinaire Jon Ralston just tweeted this.

For those keeping score at home, the statewide lead for Dems over Republicans in NV has crossed 80K barrier. This is very bad news for GOP.

As I've been saying all along, field matters. And because Nevada Democrats have been working the field like no one else can, President Obama, Shelley Berkley, John Oceguera, and Steven Horsford stand to gain like no one had expected just six months ago.

It's the Hypocrisy, Stupid.

I've said this before, but I truly feel compelled to say this again. This Nathan Sproul fiasco truly exposes the hypocrisy of the now "TEA" fueled Nevada Republican Party. How? Let me... No, wait, I'll first let Desert Beacon explain. She reminded us this morning of just who was crying "FRAUD!!!" in Carson City last year.

None of these ALEC inspired [voter suppression] bills passed. Interesting… they all seem to have been sponsored by white Republicans…

Fortunately, none of those bills passed last session. However, we just can't expect ALEC & its teabagger followers to relentlessly on this. They may very well reintroduce their voter suppression "model bills" again next year.

And strangely enough, they may use this latest scandal as "reason to act". However, we should remember why this argument doesn't fly. One is that the county election departments and Secretary of State's office can easily detect and combat this kind of fraud already, just as they are doing now. There's simply no need to scare real, legitimate voters away from the polls.

The other reason should be obvious. If these "tea party" Republicans really care about "fighting fraud", why won't they demand that their own party quit encouraging fraud? Seriously, they need to clean their own stinky house before they grandstand in Carson City and in front of TV cameras on their "important efforts to fight fraud!"

And this brings me to the other Nevada Republican who should really know better. Remember that none other than Dean Heller served 12 years as Nevada Secretary of State. Above all others, he should know and care about matters of election integrity. And especially since Dean Heller has been trying so hard to make "ethics" such a central issue in his US Senate reelection campaign, one would think Heller would hold his own party and his own campaign to the highest of ethical standards.

Yet despite all his lofty rhetoric, Dean Heller did absolutely nothing to halt the blatantly unethical and potentially criminal acts coming from the very Team Nevada that's been doing field for him. Perhaps Brad Blog best describes Republicans' use of insidious tactics (even the "not so illegal" ones) to try to gain an edge in "voter registration".

While it's one thing to target your registration drives to areas which may be more friendly to your party --- college campuses or African-American communities for Democrats, evangelical communities and gun shows for Republicans --- it seems quite another thing entirely to systematically instruct registration workers to misrepresent themselves and lie about what they are doing, in order to filter out potential supporters of a party other than the one they are working for.

Our investigation to date suggests this practice is not just systematic, but may even be at the core of the registration strategy for the Republican Party and the Romney campaign. While it's only slightly less appalling than destroying Democratic registration forms, or changing voter addresses so that they will be disenfranchised come Election Day, it certainly seems as if it ought to be as illegal as it is clearly unethical and even unAmerican.

If it's not illegal already in every state in the union, it damned well seems that it should be.

And yet, "Team Nevada" Republicans have resumed using these tactics. And just before they were shamed into dropping the company that pioneered and mastered these tactics, they were outsourcing "voter registration" to this company. And "Team Nevada" Republicans are working the field for Mitt Romney... And for Dean Heller. Remember this next time Dean Heller tries to lecture anyone on "ethics".

Hypocrisy, thy home is in the Nevada Republican Party.

Update on Team Nevada/RNC Voter Registration Fraud Scandal

On Monday, we found out that the Nathan Sproul/RNC voter registration fraud scandal had spread to Southern Nevada. Yesterday, both Team Nevada and the Clark County Election Department were hoping there's nothing more to see here.



The problem for them is that there's actually plenty more to see... And to investigate.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Nathan Sproul is now facing criminal investigation in Florida over reports of voter registration fraud. And so far, it looks like there's also potential for one here.

However, there's even more to this story. Brad Blog noted one aspect of Sproul's operation that caught fire... Yet is not being investigated.

In Florida, where the focus has been on the apparently fraudulent registration forms submitted around the state with changed addresses that could result in disenfranchised voters on November 6th, the Los Angeles Times interviewed the man who Strategic Allied has fingered as the worker who submitted the initial batch in question in Palm Beach County.

50-year old William T. Hazard of Boynton Beach maintains his innocence and says he never forged applications or even "wrote on any of the forms he collected." He says he left the firm over a pay dispute two weeks ago. Strategic Allied says the man was fired.

In any event, while saying he "did nothing wrong," he explained to the Times that he answered a Craigslist ad by a company called PinPoint Staffing seeking registered Republicans to do "voter surveys" for $12/hour.

"His only instructions," the paper reports, "were to approach people and ask whom they supported in the presidential election. When people answered with President Obama, he said, he wished them a good day. If someone said Mitt Romney, he asked if they were registered to vote. If not, he handed them forms to fill out."

He added that he was "expected to register Republicans."

Once again, it's the same ruse about taking a poll, rather than signing up folks to vote, in a fourth Strategic Allied state. That amounts to verified reports of the very same deceptive strategy used by registration workers in four of the five states where Sproul's company was working as the RNC's only voter registration outfit.

This pretty much matches what was documented in the viral video out of Colorado... As well as what's been happening right here in Nevada. And apparently, it's spread beyond Nathan Sproul. Incidents like these are being reported across the country. Yet because Nevada Revised Statutes and other state laws are often vague on what passes as legitimate voter registration and what doesn't, Republicans have jumped to operate in this "legal gray area" and misrepresent their voter registration program as a "poll".


I've recently heard reports from the ground on Team Nevada (the RNC approved "Shadow GOP") resuming its voter registration program. Apparently, it's just rehiring directly workers who had previously been on contract with Nathan Sproul. And yes, they're still hiding voter registration forms under their "Quick Poll: Romney or Obama?!" So if you see this at your local DMV some time in the next 72 hours, you can't say I didn't warn you.

Nevada Democrats Now Have 65k Voter Registration Lead

Earlier today, we dug into the new Clark County voter registration stats. Now, Nevada Democrats are in for even more good news. Here's Jon Ralston with the latest.

The Democrats have extended their registration lead to about 65,000 voters over the Republicans, continuing an inexorable stretching of a lead that could make the difference in November in critical races.

To put this in perspective, the Democrats had lost so much of their lead -- once at 100,000-plus statewide in the halcyon days of 2008 --that it was down to 37,000 voters in January. It now appears the Democrats may double that lead by the time registration closes in three weeks.

These numbers are not determinative. But considering I have been told by those who have seen numbers that the president is leading among independents, a strong base turnout could put the president over the top and drag down-ticket folks to victory[.]

Already, Nevada Democrats have a nearly 6% voter registration lead statewide. This is already larger than the lead Nevada Democrats had at the end of registration in 2010, and Dems are on track to double their advantage over what they had just at the start of this year! As I always like to say, field matters. And because Democrats keep outworking Republicans here, Democrats are faring far better here in Nevada than any of the national media pundits expected earlier this year.

It just goes to show what a little elbow grease and some well worn sneakers can do... And what total chaos can't do.

Democratic Surge in Voter Registration Continues in Clark County

It's Monday morning, so of course we need to look at the new Clark County voter registration totals. Just since last week, Nevada Democrats have made even more gains throughout Clark County... Including the key swing districts which will determine the balance of power in Washington and Carson City next year.

Here's what you need to know this morning:

- Countywide, Democrats registration advantage in Nevada's most populous county finally surged over 100,000 raw votes (and specifically landing at 102,950 today). Percentage wise, it increased just in the last week from 13.02% to 13.22%.

- In the major Congressional battleground that is NV-03, Democrats further expanded their new registration advantage to 2,212 raw votes, and from 0.54% last week to 0.72%.

- In the other big Congressional battleground that is the new NV-04 seat, Democrats' advantage in the Clark County part of the district rose to 38,091 raw votes, or 15.60%.

- And in the four competitive Clark County State Senate races that will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year, Democrats also made big gains. In Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' edge rose just in the last week from 4.02% to 4.16%. In Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' advantage now stands at 5.30%. In the Southwest Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage rose from 6.09% last week to 6.36% today. And in Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans' edge is now down to 1.87%.

Set again, Nevada Democrats are dominating voter registration. We'll have to wait until next week for the full statewide report, but so far the signs from Clark County are pointing to a greater Democratic advantage statewide than what we saw at this point in 2010. Remember how that went?

And now we know (even more on) why Nevada Republicans are running scared.

Confirmed: Nevada Democrats Dominated Voter Registration... Again!

Last week, we got a sneak peek of the new voter registration statistics to come. Tonight, The RGJ's Ray Hagar pointed out the reality of the big picture now before us.

Nevada Democrats now hold a 55,716 advantage in number of registered voters in Nevada, according to the August voter registration statistics from the Secretary of State. In July, the advantage was about 48,000.

As is becoming an embarrassing trend for the Nevada GOP, the voter registration numbers of unorganized non-partisans are greater than that of the Republicans.

In August, 6,575 voters registered as non-partisans. Only 5,042 registered as Republicans. Democrats more than doubled the GOP voter registration efforts, gaining 12,163 registered voters.

Of the 1,122,236 active registered voters statewide, 41.28 percent (463,229) are Democrats,36.31 percent (407,513) are Republicans, and 16.66% (1 86,941) are nonpartisans.

If this keeps up, Nevada will no longer be considered a battleground state.

But wait, there's more! Here are some more details on the new numbers:

- In NV-03, the newly regained Democratic registration advantage grew a bit more since last week's Clark County report, edging up from 0.14% to 0.17%. Last month, Republicans had a slight 0.24% edge here.

- We now know the full results for NV-04. Districtwide, Democrats' registration advantage grew from 9.96% last month to 10.56% now.

- Overall for Clark County, Democrats grew their registration advantage from 11.88% at the start of last month to 12.53% now.

- And up north, the Republican registration advantage in Washoe County shrunk from 1.63% at the start of last month to 1.55% now. Believe it or not, this is the "bright spot" for Nevada Republicans!

So yet again, the best the Nevada G-O-TEA could do was hold back some Democratic gains in Reno. Otherwise, they fell even further behind as Democrats ramped up voter registration yet again in and around Las Vegas. Wow.

And you know what? Ray Hagar is right. If this continues, it will become even clearer that Nevada is indeed a Blue State... And Nevada Republicans just can't adjust to the new realities of our state.

Obama's Ace in the Hole

In case you haven't yet heard, Nevada Democrats made big gains again in voter registration last month. Democrats now have a 41.13% to 36.70% advantage over Republicans statewide. And not only have Democrats gained statewide, but in key swing areas as well. Republicans' registration advantage in NV-03 has almost entirely vanished, and Democrats' registration advantage in the new NV-04 district is back over 10%.

So how are Nevada Democrats doing this? Take a look below.





OFA Nevada and the Nevada State Democratic Party have been doing voter registration since the spring. Last Friday, I wanted to see what was happening for myself, so I went to the epicenter of all the local voter registration action: the Henderson DMV.

As people were streaming in and out, 5 Democrats (2 OFA, 3 NVDems) were outside, holding clipboards, and registering anyone who wanted to. Meanwhile, there were 3 Republicans (From the real Nevada G-O-TEA? Or "The Shadow Party?) conducting a "survey"... And using that to determine who to register to vote. Basically, people who sounded anti-Obama were chased into the parking lot while people who sounded pro-Obama were tossed aside.

While the Democrats kept asking everyone and stood ready & available for anyone who needed to register or change address, DMV customers were complaining to DMV staff about the Republicans' behavior. Pretty soon, security guards were asking the Republicans to stop the annoying "survey" and stop chasing people into the parking lot. And in case there wasn't enough drama there, the Republicans' supervisor soon arrived in a full suit and proceeded to tell his staff NOT to pay attention to what the security guards are saying!

And while all that drama was unfolding, the folks from the Nevada State Democratic Party continued with voter registration. Now, everyone is just hoping that the G-O-TEA's bad behavior won't force everyone out of the DMV for good.

But wait, there's more! On a lighter note, OFA also celebrated President Obama's birthday on Saturday. In addition to doing that round of voter registration on Friday, local volunteer leader Linda hosted a birthday party for Mr. President the following evening! Here's a glimpse of what happened.







While everyone was having fun there, some important work was also being done. Volunteers were being recruited for future voter registration shifts and phone banks. Local OFA organizer Alison was explaining to the group why they will soon need volunteers to canvass the neighborhood. And Linda reminded them why they were all there.

And in case that wasn't enough, Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Roberta Lange and NV-03 Democratic nominee John Oceguera stopped by to remind everyone that there's even more at stake this fall. President Obama will surely need more allies in Congress next year, so electing Oceguera & Shelley Berkley (who's running for US Senate) will be just as critical as Obama's own final score in Nevada. Really, the entire balance of power in Washington may ultimately be determined by my neighborhood 8 miles southeast of the Las Vegas Strip.

This is why Nevada Democrats have been working the field so hard. They're now starting to reap the rewards. And if they keep at this pace, Nevada may end up Bluer than ever before... And Mitt Romney will really be screwed here, and Dean Heller & Joe Heck will be dragged down with Romney.

And ultimately, all of this may be determined by how many more Democrats are registered to vote at the Henderson DMV, as well as how many doors are knocked & how many phone calls are made in the next month. Yep, Nevada Democrats' field operation may prove to be President Obama's "Ace in the Hole" here.

The Curious Case of Nevada's Voter Registration

Well, now we know why Republicans are panicking. Take a look at the new voter registration statistics.

New numbers released this week show Democrats have increased their advantage over Republicans to 47,500 voters.

Since April, Democratic voter registration has increased by 20,500. Republican registration in that time has increased by 9,700.

While the statewide numbers haven't officially been released yet, we can look at the new Clark County numbers to see what's happening in all the hot Southern Nevada races. Here's what's making my eyes pop this morning:

- The Republican registration advantage in NV-03 is almost all gone, as their formerly 0.41% edge shrunk even further. Now, it's all the way down to a mere 0.24%, or 682 raw votes. At the pace this is going, Democrats may regain an advantage here as soon as next month!

- The Democratic advantage in the Clark County portion of the new NV-04 seat grew from an already robust 13.86% to an even wider 14.09%, or 31,928 raw votes. Again, we won't know the full NV-04 numbers until the Secretary of State's office releases new statewide statistics late this week. But so far, Steven Horsford and Nevada Democrats must be happy at this sight.

- And in the key Clark County State Senate races that will determine the balance of power in the Legislature next year, Democrats gained across the board. In SD 5 in the Green Valley neighborhoods of Henderson, Democrats' advantage rose from 3.19% to 3.36%. In SD 6 in the Summerlin neighborhoods of Las Vegas, Democrats' advantage rose from 3.81% to 3.93%. In SD 9 in the Southwest Las Vegas Valley, the Democratic edge grew from 4.78% to 5.06% (!!!). And finally in SD 18 in the Northwest Las Vegas Valley, the Republican edge shrank from 2.80% to 2.60%. All in all, Democrats did quite well in registering new voters in these key swing districts. In particular, SD 9 really seems to be slipping away from Republicans entirely while SD 18 is looking increasingly vulnerable for them.

And overall, Nevada Democrats have plenty of reasons to smile. In addition to the great #NVLeg news, NV-03 is almost completely even in registration. Joe Heck and his Republican consultants now have plenty of reasons to be extra nervous. And again, as long as NV-04 gains more Clark County Democrats, Steven Horsford's position continues to solidify. He may not completely be out of the woods yet, but at least there's plenty of light at the end of that path.

So what does this all mean? I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Field matters. Because Nevada Democrats are busy registering new voters and persuading more current voters, they're in better shape than most pundits actually realize. And because Nevada Republicans can't match their boastful swagger with any real action, they're in more trouble than they really want to admit.

Here's what The Sun's David McGrath Schwartz had to admit yesterday.

Put shortly, Democrats are well organized and have been building an infrastructure for eight years with the help of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Republicans, meanwhile, have gone through a series of titular heads, and top elected Republicans have spent their political capital elsewhere. [...]

But elections are about numbers. Voters who register with a party are a tangible indication of just that.

The disparity on voter registration is likely more a reflection of the strength of the organizations.

Politics is often one big numbers game. And right now, Nevada Republicans are falling behind. Nevada Democrats just have to keep on chugging (and registering and persuading) to finish on top in November.

What a Fool Believes: Nevada GOP to Do Voter Registration?

I guess the latest voter registration statistics are really starting to sink in. The "Real" Nevada GOP will be receiving $166,000 to contract out voter registration. Wow.



"Real" Nevada GOP Chair Michael McDonald says this is a sign of recovery from "The May-lee" that pretty much sealed the deal in ripping the party apart. Yet just as McDonald proudly announces this and enhanced "cooperation" with the Washoe County GOP, the Washoe GOP is continuing its legal divorce from the state party. And while McDonald claims he has a great relationship with the RNC, that hasn't stopped the RNC from funneling more money to the "Team Nevada" "Shadow GOP".

So what's the real story here? That's what I'm trying to figure out. And remember, we're talking about Michael McDonald here. This is the guy backed by the "tea party" loons who supposedly hate bailouts, yet he continues to milk the City of Las Vegas for more bailouts. And this is the same guy who let Ron Paul's campaign hijack the state GOP convention, yet he's now to be trusted with RNC money meant to help Mitt Romney?

Perhaps there's some kind of reasoning behind this. After all, that "Shadow GOP" isn't looking all that great now. Just look at what's happened to AFP since it started that bus tour. Maybe the "Real" Nevada Republican Party isn't looking all that bad by comparison?

Whatever the case, the Nevada GOP is back in the news. And whenever that happens, Republican consultants start crying into their coffee. Oh, what a fool believes.

Nevada's Changing Electorate... & Nevada Republicans' Sagging Fortunes

For some time now, we've documented Nevada Republicans' many problems in slapping communities of color in the face "minority voter outreach". Now, we have a better sense of why they're panicking. As more and more Nevadans in communities of color become eligible to vote, Republicans sense trouble (for them).

Here the general picture is also favorable to Obama, though some states are much more favorable than others. Looking first at the Mountain West, the two key states here are Nevada and Colorado[...]. Nevada is the nation’s leader in demographic change: Between 2008 and 2012, the minority share of eligible voters increased by an astonishing 9 points, more than 2 points a year. Minorities are now almost 40 percent of Nevada’s eligible voters. At the same time, the share of white non-college eligibles has declined by over 5 points in the state and white college eligibles by 3 points.

Oh, yes. That's right... Or, should I say ¡si se puede!

Especially as the Latino and Asian-American populations continue to grow here in Nevada and OFA & Nevada Democrats continue to target these communities for intense voter registration, Republicans will continue to feel the heat. This is why they're trying to spin away this inconvenient truth with puffed up chests and fluffed up "non-troversy". Of course, this is also why some Nevada Republicans have pursued voter suppression and Kris Kobach/Arizona G-O-TEA style "papers please" scare tactics to try to hold down the minority vote share.

So why are they so scared? It's simple, really. Until now, they've used xenophobia to win elections. And in using that xenophobia, they've alienated minority communities. So now that they're voting in larger numbers, the tables are turning and some Republicans are now realizing they're on the losing end of the equation.

So what do they do now? That's probably the key $64,000,000 question this year. Do they double down on xenophobua to please their "tea party" base? Do they try to suppress the minority vote? Or do they try to win over some new supporters? Considering what's happened just in the last year, that latter option won't be easy at all for Nevada Republicans.

More on the New Voter Registration Numbers

Earlier this week, we took a glance at the new Clark County voter registration numbers. Now, we finally have the statewide numbers available.

I just crunched some more numbers, and I noticed some interesting things up north. Democrats overall made modest gains in Washoe County as the Republican registration advantage countywide shrank from 1.70% to 1.65%. In the super hot SD 15 race where Sheila Leslie faces off against Greg Brower, the Republican edge shrank from 1.99% to 1.93%. While the results here weren't as dramatic as what we saw down south, there was some improvement for Nevada Democrats.

And then, there's NV-04. Now that the rurals are in, we know the overall picture. The district wide Democratic registration advantage rose from 9.13% to 9.59%, so all those new registrations in Clark County really came in handy.

And finally, we have the statewide numbers. In raw numbers, the Democratic registration edge grew from 38,792 voters to 44,179 voters. This means Nevada Democrats' advantage grew from 3.66% to 4.09%.

Again, the overall news from last month's voter registrations looks quite good for Nevada Democrats. While their gains up north were more modest, their big gains in Clark County were indeed big enough to make an impact on NV-04 and statewide.

A Sneak Peek at New Voter Reg Numbers

In case you missed it this morning, the Clark County Election Department released new voter registration statistics for June. And since over 70% of the state's population and about 2/3 of the state's voters are in Clark County, this gives us a good idea of what to expect when the Secretary of State's office releases new statewide voter registration numbers in a few days. So what's in there?

Basically, there are some surprising numbers that pop out. For one, Clark County's overall active voter rolls jumped nearly 2.7% from 691,575 voters at the close of primary registration (in mid May) to 710,149 voters. Finally, the active voter rolls are growing again! For anyone who appreciates "small d democracy", that has to be good news.

However for "Big D" Democrats, there's even more good news. Countywide, their voter registration advantage jumped from 10.97% to 11.46%. In raw numbers, the gap has widened to 81,385 voters. Obviously, all the hard work done by OFA and Nevada Democrats is rewarding them.

And what makes last month even better for Democrats is that unlike March, they're finally starting to see sustained gains in key swing districts that will determine control of both the US Congress and the Nevada Legislature next year. In NV-03, the Republican advantage narrowed from an already tiny 0.71% to an even more minuscule 0.41%, or 1,163 voters (that is, the new gap between the GOP and Dems in NV-03). And in the Clark County portion of NV-04 (remember, it's a multi-county district, so we won't know the full results until the SoS report is live), Democrats' advantage widened from 13.38% to 13.86%, or 30,963 voters. So at least now, Nevada Democrats' registration gains are happening in swing areas in addition to base strongholds (NV-01).

The numbers become even more dramatic when we jump into the swing (Nevada Legislature) Senate Districts in Clark County. In SD 5 in Henderson, Democrats increased their advantage from 3.10% to 3.19%. In SD 6 in the Summerlin and Northwest areas of Las Vegas, Democrats' registration edge jumped from 3.32% to 3.81%. In SD 9, which spans the great Southwest from Summerlin South to Mountain's Edge to Southern Highlands, the Democratic advantage rose from 4.43% to 4.78%. And in SD 18 in Northwest Las Vegas, the Republican advantage shrunk from 3.01% to 2.80%. Again, it finally looks like Democrats are making and sustaining gains in the swing districts they need to win in November.

Overall, this first round of voter registration updates looks quite good for Nevada Democrats. We'll have to wait for the Secretary of State's numbers to see if Dems also gained in Washoe County and the rurals. But so far, Team Blue on Valley View has good reason to smile... And even more reason to celebrate this week.

Dems Still Growing, CReeps Still Shrinking, & Nevada Not So "Conservative" Any More

Again, so much for all that "momentum" for Rethuglicans here...

Democratic and Republican candidates are spending the most money but nonpartisan voters made the biggest gains in registration in October.

Secretary of State Ross Miller said there were 1,197,252 Nevadans registered to vote at the end of October, an increase of 525 from the previous month.

The nonpartisans picked up the most voters – 356 voters – giving them a total of 184,632.

Democrats continue to lead the pack with 523,345 voters, an increase of 182; Republicans total 425,635, down 116 voters from September; There were 49,196 signed up for the Independent American Party, 3,330 for the Greens, 6,973 in the Libertarian Party and 4,141 in other parties.

Clark County had 804,961 registered voters with 380,034 Democrats, 257,727 Republicans, 126,875 non-partisan, 31,717 Independent American, 2,001 Green, 4,317 Libertarian and 2,290 in other parties.

Heh. So no mo' Republican comeback? I guess not, since it isn't even happening here!

And again, I hope this disproves the notion that somehow Nevada is a "conservative state". Seriously it's outdated considering Obama won the state by 12.5% last year, comprehensive domestic partnerships for gay & straight couples were enacted this year, the majority consistently supports strong health care reform with a public option, and even a plurality now supports progressive tax reform. Nevada may not yet be some Massachusetts or Vermont liberal vanguard, but neither are we some mini Texas or Utah any more.

Republicans So "Popular", They Make No Net Gain Over Democrats

So how do we know the teabaggers and birthers are on the rise? Well, look at the registration numbers!

Republicans have added just 1,549 voters since February, when the secretary of state’s office cleaned up voter registration rolls.

Democrats, meanwhile, added 4,860 and nonpartisan registration grew by 3,783. Even the hard-right Independent American Party registered more Nevada voters in that span than Republicans.

“Coming in fourth? Ouch,” said Erik Herzik, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno, and a registered Republican.

Oops, so the new extreme right Republican Party isn't on the rise? So Sue Lowden's fantastic leadership has resulted in continued unpopularity? And the GOoPers still think she can beat Harry Reid? And some guy who lost his State Senate seat to a political novice can beat Dina Titus? Gimme a break!

Ah, another day of Republican folly! :-p