Monday, August 27, 2012

First Look at August Voter Registration Trends

Late last month, it looked like Nevada Republicans weren't having good luck with their "voter registration project". And judging by the latest Clark County numbers, it looks like certain G-O-TEA consultants are about to cry into their coffee some more.

Here's what we now know:

- It's now official. Democrats have regained the lead in the NV-03 voter rolls. Specifically, NV-03 has flipped from a 0.24% Republican registration lead last month to a 0.14% Democratic registration advantage today.

- In the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats' registration advantage widened again, this time from 14.09% to 14.67%. We'll have to wait for the full statewide numbers to be released before analyzing the trend for the entire district. But so far, this looks good for Steven Horsford.

- And in the critical State Senate races that will determine the balance of power in Carson City next year, Democrats received even more good news. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' registration edge rose from 3.36% to 3.70%. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' edge grew from 3.93% to 4.49%. In the Southwest Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew from 5.06% to 5.61%. And in the Northwest Las Vegas centered SD 18, Republicans' edge shrunk from 2.60% to 2.38%. Again, we'll have to wait a few more days to see what kind of movement happened in SD 15 in Washoe County. But so far in looking at the Clark County numbers, Democrats have strengthened their hand when it comes to the race to control the (State) Senate next year.

And countywide, Democrats grew their advantage from 11.88% last month to 12.39% now. Again, this just goes to show how much working the field really matters. In Southern Nevada, Democrats continue to gain in voter registration. By next week, we should know what the full picture looks like statewide.

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