Thursday, January 19, 2012

Game Change?

Well, today looks to be quite the exciting day. On the G-O-TEA side, Rick Perry dropped out...

And Mitt Romney didn't really win Iowa, after all!

The Iowa state GOP says their certified results show Rick Santorum winning by a 34-vote margin over Mitt Romney, a reversal of Romney’s reported caucus night lead of 8 votes — but the party has nevertheless called the result a “split decision,” citing the matter of 8 missing precincts. But those precincts aren’t really missing. [...]

[...T]he results that were reported on caucus night by the state GOP are still online. And for those precincts, we can get an idea of how Santorum and Romney performed against each other. Of course, we should remain aware that there still could be a typo in these numbers — but on the other hand, the probabilities strongly favor them being accurate for both Santorum and Romney, as errors that do occur (if at all) could have been spread across the other candidates, as well.

And as it turns out, when incorporating the numbers from election night, Santorum’s lead actually becomes even wider. [...]

In those precincts, based on the reported caucus night results, Santorum received a total of 81 votes, to Romney’s 46.

If those results are added to the certified results, Santorum’s 29,839 votes would become 29,920, and Romney’ 29,805 would become 29,851 — for a “final” result of Santorum winning the caucuses, by a margin of 69 votes.

They don't like Mittens... They really don't like him. And with Perry bowing out to endorse Newt Gingrich and Romney's "dazzling Iowa win!!!" officially taken away from him, perhaps South Carolina will provide fireworks, after all...

But Nevada's G-O-TEA Caucus still looks to arrive like a dud. Now that Perry's out, Brian Sandoval's endorsement doesn't seem to be worth a hill of beans. And funny enough, the big candidate appearance that everyone is now talking about... Is President Obama's.

President Barack Obama will visit Las Vegas next week, on a five-stop swing through the West and Midwest.

Obama will be arriving in Las Vegas on Wednesday, Jan. 25 and stay overnight, departing on Thursday, Jan. 26. No further details about the trip were immediately available, except that the president’s visit — like Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Reno’s Galena High School on Thursday to talk about college affordability — is official White House business.

The two trips bookend the Nevada Democratic Caucuses this Saturday. While the vice president and president’s stops in the Silver State are not officially part of the 2012 reelection campaign effort, the high-profile visits are likely to drum up Democratic enthusiasm just before the Republican presidential field arrives in Nevada for the GOP caucuses on Feb. 4.

Oh, and this will be just a week after Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Reno today.

Add all this together, and the big picture looks far less rosy for Mittens. He didn't win the Iowa Caucus, he still may not win the South Carolina Primary, and a Nevada Caucus win still won't mean anything. He still has a tough primary schedule ahead to tackle, and his general election numbers are still lousy. So how again is Mittens "the winner"?

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