Saturday, January 7, 2012

Frothy Irrelevance?

Right now, everyone is asking what kind of role Nevada's GOP Caucus will have in this primary season. Apparently, there's a good chance it won't mean a hill of beans. We don't know yet how hard Rick Santorum really will be campaigning here, but now the $64,000,000 question is whether Santorum will be able to amass the kind of money he will need to take on Romney in bigger, more expensive, and more media dominant states like Florida and Ohio.

So what is to come in this primary season? That's what we still have to figure out. After all, there must be a reason why John McCain can't even remember Mitt Romney's name.

As we talked about earlier this week, a growing number of Republicans are realizing that they face a major "image problem" with Bain Capital "vulture capitalist" Mitt Romney leading their charge this fall... But how do they stop this speeding train? Can Rick Santorum amass enough money to stay competitive? Or is there enough time for some magical "dark horse" to emerge and stop this?

Nevada Republicans now look to face the ultimate "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" dilemma. If Romney looks to be wrapping up the nomination by the end of this month, then their caucus really will be irrelevant and they will end up with a whole lot of egg in their faces for caving into New Hampshire's Secretary of State and the RNC so quickly. But if Romney somehow stumbles in the next few days, loses the expectations game in New Hampshire, and allows someone else to gain momentum in South Carolina, then Romney will be under extra pressure to prevent a total meltdown here in Nevada along with a painfully prolonged primary season. So Nevada Republicans now have to pick their poison: either they stay irrelevant by letting Romney coast, or they risk more bruising battles ahead by giving Santorum, Paul, and Co. another look.

But then again, this may mostly be out of their hands. It's all on New Hampshire right now. And regardless of what happens here on the GOP side, the cards will be dealt on Tuesday night... Only for South Carolina and Florida to play those cards out and ultimately determine when Republicans will get a nominee. Perhaps Nevada Republicans have already become irrelevant?

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