Tuesday, January 10, 2012

BREAKING: Romney Wins New Hampshire... Or Is He?

5:35 PM:

So Romney wins... Or is he really winning? So far, he's getting under 36% of the vote... In the state where he has a house, and in the state next door to where he was Governor. And for being "Mr. Inevitable", Mitt Romney can't seem to break 50% anywhere.

Again, if Romney is now officially the G-O-TEA front runner, then he's the weakest front runner we've ever seen!

Stay tuned for more as I keep live blogging the New Hampshire results.

5:50 PM:

Here's what I'm talking about. The LA Times looked at how Romney's numbers can and will be spun. They basically went easy and proclaimed any Romney win with 40% of the vote or more as a "real win". However if he gets 35% or less, then its a disappointment and we're officially allowed to declare that GOP primary season is still open. Right now he's at 36% with Ron Paul not too far behind at 24%, so suffice to say it still may not be over yet for Mittens.

6:15 PM:

It's looking increasingly certain that at least 60% of New Hampshire Republican voters rejected Mitt Romney today. Right now, he's getting exactly 37%. And again, we're supposed to crown him "inevitable"?

6:30 PM:

Remember where this contest is heading next. South Carolina has been hit quite hard by "The Great Recession", so Romney's growing Bain Capital scandal may really come back to bite him there. As we talked about yesterday, Mittens' Republican opponents have seemed to find their inner "Occupy Wall Street activists" in discovering his biggest political liability, which is his willingness to destroy American jobs being put front and center during a campaign in which Wall Street greed and economic inequality are key worries of voters right now.

Oh, and by the way, Romney's still down at 37.5% with almost 50% reporting, so Romney is indeed "making history" by limping along so weakly as "the front runner".

6:45 PM:

IMHO Debbie Wasserman Schultz nails it!

“Mitt Romney may have won in New Hampshire tonight, but he can't run from the fact that his support was rapidly eroding before any vote was even cast. Over the course of the last few months, Romney had the support of as much as 45 percent of the primary electorate —at one point boasting a nearly 30 percent lead over the rest of the GOP field. But tonight he fell far short of meeting expectations—especially in a state where he’s a part-time resident, which is next door to his home state of Massachusetts, in the same media market. He fell short next to a state where he raised a family and served as governor and where he’s been running on and off for political office over nearly two decades and for president for seven years.

“But what’s more troubling for Mitt Romney is the fact that the premise of his candidacy is unraveling. He leaves here wounded by a series of episodes that made it clear to voters—both in New Hampshire and for those watching across the country—that he is completely out of touch with the concerns of America’s working and middle-class families. Romney disingenuously claimed just a few days ago that he once feared getting a pink slip when in fact his campaign can’t offer any examples of when that might have been the case. Yesterday, he went as far as saying that he enjoys being able to fire people. He continues to call himself a job creator, but his accounts of creating 100,000 jobs at Bain Capital have been knocked down across the board. Even worse, as one of his colleagues said, he never considered what they did at Bain Capital as job creation. What they did was make a profit while companies were sometimes driven to bankruptcy, workers were laid off, and jobs were sent overseas. These revelations have led to a precipitous drop in Mitt Romney’s support—and his failure to perform better in the Granite State is a significant setback for both his campaign and his candidacy for president.”

I know Ms. DNC Chair just reiterated what I was saying earlier... And honestly, I love it. She really said it best. And Mittens knows we're right.

6:55 PM:

Here's another important metric to observe: How's that Republican turnout? Oh yes, it's looking awfully puny right now. And Americans supposedly "hate Obama" so much they'll crawl on broken glass to vote against him? Give me a break!

7:15 PM:

With about 2/3 reporting, it still looks like about 62% of New Hampshire GOP voters ultimately voted against Mitt Romney. Yet despite that, the key take away from TPM's post New Hampshire write-up is that the GOP establishment is worried about a prolonged primary fight weakening Romney. OK, I'll ask... Why?

In 2008, some Democrats were worrying about the same thing as the Clinton vs. Obama battle royale dragged all the way to summer. Yet even as the primary fight turned brutal, Democrats registered millions more voters, revved up enthusiasm, and ultimately made Barack Obama a stronger candidate. So why aren't Republicans seeing the same benefits for Mitt Romney?

Here's why: Bain Capital. Yes. That's right. It really comes back to that. Romney is seen as a "Wall Street elite corporate raider job killer" during an election when people are getting angry over Wall Street excess and lack of attention on working class needs. How can anyone get enthusiastic over backing "Mr. Wall Street 1%" himself?

Again, Republicans are getting worried... And that's why this current G-O-TEA primary madness can't end just yet.

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