It's Hypocrisy vs. Solutions for the 99%

Today, Ralston is thinking aloud about the kind of campaign the G-O-TEA will use next year. And believe it or not, they want to campaign on "ethics".

But it seems clear to me as Democrats pound away at GOP proposals to cut spending, framing them as a binary choice between protecting and preserving (get used to that construction) Medicare and Social Security or gutting the entitlements, Republicans will combat these attacks by raising the ethics of their opponents. It’s not just all they have, but each of those federal races provides ample ammunition for them to load their weapons.

Before I go on, I must note the irony of the party whose most recent not-so-voluntary departures were two of the most scandalized elected officials this state has seen — John Ensign and Jim Gibbons — using the ethics sword to slice up Democrats.

Ethics? Seriously? After what John Ensign just put the state through? After Jim Gibbons? After both Dean Heller and Joe Heck continue to ignore Nevadans' best interests in favor of pleasing their "Tea Party, Inc." patrons?

No, Jon Ralston, that's not "boiler plate" or concern about "ethics". That's total hypocrisy in action.

If Heck and Heller have such a great message to send to us, why don't they just say it? Why do they want to obsess over Shelley Berkley's husband's investments, John Oceguera's day job, and/or efforts to save UMC's kidney transplant program?

Here's why.

Now, just as there was in Teddy Roosevelt’s time, there’s been a certain crowd in Washington for the last few decades who respond to this economic challenge with the same old tune. “The market will take care of everything,” they tell us. If only we cut more regulations and cut more taxes – especially for the wealthy – our economy will grow stronger. Sure, there will be winners and losers. But if the winners do really well, jobs and prosperity will eventually trickle down to everyone else. And even if prosperity doesn’t trickle down, they argue, that’s the price of liberty.

It’s a simple theory – one that speaks to our rugged individualism and healthy skepticism of too much government. [...] And that theory fits well on a bumper sticker. Here’s the problem: It doesn’t work. It has never worked. It didn’t work when it was tried in the decade before the Great Depression. It’s not what led to the incredible post-war boom of the 50s and 60s. And it didn’t work when we tried it during the last decade.

President Obama is correct. "Trickle Down Economics" doesn't work. And loyal G-O-TEA soldiers, such as Heck and Heller, have no choice but to distract from this and find something, ANYTHING!, else to run on.

Think about it. Why aren't Heller and Heck pounding their chests and proclaiming all their great accomplishments in Congress? Wait, you mean Heck's and Heller's respective plans to destroy America's economy and throw even more Nevadans into poverty don't make a good campaign slogan? And neither would their party's continued effort to block middle class tax cuts and protect billionaire bailouts? I guess when even Wall Street executives are admitting income inequality is a real problem, they have nothing.

Time to Occupy Congress?

I'll talk more about this later in the week. I just wanted to make sure you saw this important message from our friends at ProgressNow.

Dear Andrew,
All year Congress has squabbled over politics, driven our bond rating down and put programs and our entire economy at the brink of disaster.
This week it’s time for the people to Take Back the Capitol. Thousands are heading to Washington, D.C. to occupy the National Mall and take the People’s House back from K Street lobbyists, corporate money and shadowy operatives of the Koch Brothers Empire.
The timing couldn’t be more critical. Congress is deliberating the extension of unemployment insurance benefits for more than 5 million people and trying to figure out whether to tax the majority of Americans or only the wealthiest 1 percent.
We know where Rep. Joe Heck has stood so far in these critical debates – against the 99%. So we’ll be there to send him a message from the 99% in Nevada: It's time to put people over politics!
Sign the Occupy Congress solidarity pledge. Stand with the 99% in D.C. this week!

Together we can take on the corporate special interests that control Heck and other so-called representatives. Together we can send a message to the Washington elite and Beltway media that the masses have had enough.
We are the majority and together we can Take Back the Capitol.
Sign the Occupy Congress solidarity pledge today.
We’ll be in Washington following all of the events this week and posting updates. You can get the latest updates by following us on Twitter, becoming a fan on Facebook, or checking out our blog for news.
Together we can send a very loud message. It’s time for Congress to do the people’s business. It’s time for the people to occupy Congress.

In solidarity,
Erin Neff and the ProgressNow Nevada Team

How Do We Get Out of This?

Yesterday, we saw some much welcomed news of a big drop in the national unemployment rate. Earlier in the week, we also saw a strong early start to the Holiday Shopping Season. Yet even though we received all this good economic news this week, folks here still sound like they're in the dumps. Even as Nevada's business leaders feel more optimistic...

Indeed [...], sales tax revenue has been up on a year-over-year basis across the state for at least 14 consecutive months, and fiscal 2011 finished well ahead of budget. “What that tells us is that business has shown some moderate improvement in activity, and we think that’s a positive note,” [said Jeff Mohlenkamp, Director of the Department of Administration for the State of Nevada.] Gaming tax revenue has been “a bit more volatile, a bit more up and down.”

Applied Analysis, the Las Vegas-based business advisory services firm, sees the state revenue coming in above expectations in terms of both sales and gaming taxes. “I think we will beat the Economic Forum’s expectation, which will leave them with what I think is going to be a relatively healthy overage,” says Principal Analyst Jeremy Aguero. “However, the state will still have a deficit when going into 2013.”

“People are consuming,” [Brian Bonnenfant, Project Manager for the Center for Regional Studies at the University of Nevada, Reno] confirms. “You’re seeing visitation numbers popping in Vegas and that’s real good, although that’s not really reflecting in the gaming side, which shows there are still some limitations on how much they’re willing to spend.”

The people aren't feeling it so much.

Donna West could once name the homeowners on her affluent Las Vegas street. Then came the recession, the vacant homes, and the parade of anonymous renters.

"To me, the recession hasn't ended," said West, a 55-year-old retired state worker. "We have more foreclosures happening in my neighborhood than a year ago."

Across this hardest-hit Western state, a battle of perceptions is being waged over whether Nevada is on the edge of recovery, or still falling four years after the collapse of its mighty housing, tourism and construction industries.

Looking objectively at the economic data, we ARE in recovery. But because we fell so far so fast, this slow recovery still feels like recession to those that haven't yet felt the better times for themselves. We may be seeing progress now, but there's still so much more that needs to be made.

So how have we been able to start getting out of this hole in the first place? Take a closer look at that second statistical point I noted at the top. When consumers re-enter the market and spend, the whole economy is all the better for it. Desert Beacon explained this in greater detail yeaterday. Here's the big takeaway:

A lack of demand is associated with several of the common factors for small business failure. Small businesses don’t fail because of “government regulations,” or because of “the Bank;” they fail because their numbers don’t add up. The number one reason for small business failure: “There is not enough demand for the product or service at a price that will produce a profit for the company.” This covers a host of other issues: Did the start-up try to compete with a company that can operate with economies of scale? Did the business open up in a declining market? Did the business over-expand?

Even a cursory review of the typical lists of reasons for start-up and small business failure will yield evidence that the owner failed to initially understand demand levels, failed to physically locate in areas of high demand, or became overly optimistic about the overall level of demand and over-expanded the operations. Failure to do proper budgeting and accounting within the firm means that there was no accurate way to determine if the demand was sufficient to keep the company floating above the profit line. These elements return us to the starting point: The business failed because there wasn’t enough demand to produce a profit for the company.

So conversely, businesses can't succeed on "LOW TAXES!!!" alone. It ultimately takes demand from consumers, and especially working class consumers that form the vast majority of our population, for businesses to succeed.

Because tourists are slowly trickling back onto The Strip and spending more (than they did in 2009, if still not nearly as much as they did in 2006) on everything from dining out to big ticket shows to shopping, our overall economy is rebounding off our lowest of lows. But because the real estate market is still weak and there's still no replacement yet for the real estate-construction bubble that propped up our artifically inflated economy last decade, many locals are still suffering.

So what can we do about it? It's simple, really. We need policies that improve consumer demand. And as we talked about earlier this week, the most effective ways to boost the economy is to put money in the pockets of people who need it the most. This is why the extreme austerity measures being pursued by the likes of Joe Heck and Dean Heller only serve to hurt their own constituents by ripping money out of their hands and throwing even more Nevadans into worse poverty.

Again, when consumers re-enter the market and spend, the whole economy is all the better for it. Because President Obama and Congress were able to pass the Recovery Act in 2009, and because he got Congress to agree to a payroll tax cut late last year, we're now seeing the economy pick up. But if we don't renew these policies and don't go all in on improving consumer demand, we will all suffer for it.

This is why we can't afford any more "tea party" preferred austerity. We need to empower consumers, NOT disembowel them. If we want a healthier economy, we know what we need to do.

Are Happy Days Here Again?

Just 48 hours after equity markets soared over news of central banks stepping in to curb the Euro-zone crisis, Americans may be getting some real, good reasons to cheer this holiday season. Finally, we see a breakthrough in the unemployment numbers!

Merry Christmas, President Obama. The topline takeway from the November jobs reports makes for a White House-friendly headline. The unemployment rate in November fell 0.4 percent, from 9.0 to 8.6, a remarkable drop down to a two-year-low after a year in which the percentage of unemployed hardly ever budged. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy also added 120,000 jobs, in line with the trend that has been in place for the past few months.. The broadest measure of unemployment, the U-6 number that counts workers in part-time jobs and those who have given up looking for work, fell from 16.2 to 15.6 percent.

The BLS also revised September (from 158,000 to 210,000,) and October’s ( from 80,000 to 100,000) jobs numbers. In recent months, the BLS revisions have consistently trended towards more positive job creation numbers than previously reported, an encouraging sign indicating that the economy’s fundamentals may be improving faster than contemporaneous data are indicating.

What's really fascinating is that the Labor Department has generally been revising job creation numbers upward throughout the second half of this year. It's really an encouraging sign that despite international economic toil and political tension here at home, the economy is still managing to grow and add jobs...

But is it enough? The workforce participation rate is quite low at 64%, meaning that far too many workers are just giving up on finding another job. This is why we still need more action to get these folks back to work.

Unfortunately, Senate Republicans blocked an extension of President Obama's payroll tax cut that could have helped in doing just that. But wait, don't Republicans like tax cuts? Apparently, they don't if it benefits the 99% instead of just the top 1%.

Still, it's encouraging to see President Obama take an aggressive lead on this and point out who's blocking progress. Now, we just need to see more progress. And we need progress that helps the working class. Today's jobless numbers show that what's been done by Obama so far clearly is working, but also that we still need more action to fully heal this bruised economy of ours.

The Breaking Point

Any wonder why so few Nevadans complete higher education?

Casey Stiteler, Associated Students of the University of Nevada president, said Nevada's ranking with other states is not as important as the cost. "For a lot of Nevada students, cost is a factor. They are not planning to go other schools. They are planning to go here," he said.

Stiteler said he was proud of how students responded to cuts and higher tuition in recent years.

"But the problem is now when do we reach our breaking point?" he said. "What is the sign that enough is enough?

"We have to be close to the point where we are closing Nevadans out of higher education."

Alex King, 23, a UNR biology junior, said he will take fewer classes and graduate later if tuition is raised significantly. As it is, he said graduating on time is difficult because only one section of each class he needs is offered each semester.

He already works full-time to go to school.

"It is really expensive, living on your own and going to college," he said. "If they keep raising prices, it takes longer to graduate."

And that runs counter to the Regents' goal to boost timely graduation rates.

"I don't know what I am going to do with a 13 percent increase," said Kaylee Waters, 20, a UNR community health sciences sophomore from Truckee. "My parents are helping me, and I have a job, and that pays for books. My family is going to feel it more."

And why are these students so worried? Oh, the Board of Regents will just be voting on proposals that could raise Nevada college tuition by as much as 13%! As if students didn't have enough to worry about, they now have to figure out all over again how to cover tuition.

But wait, aren't we cheaper than California? Well, that's become an increasingly high bar to stay under. And considering how incredibly expensive UC, and even CSU, tuition has become, that's not much to brag about.

No wonder why students there risked their very lives to protest this.

The assault on publicly funded higher education is wrappedup in the discontents that provoked the Occupy Wall Street movement. Inexpensive state universities are central to the ability of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds to move up in the world. The United States used to be known as a society where those at the bottom could hope to get ahead, and where being born with a silver spoon in your mouth was no guarantee of lifetime prosperity. Now, upward mobility has gotten harder, the rich more often stay rich, and Europe is the land of opportunity. European state support for institutions of higher education is key to that mobility. The United States of America, born in a rejection of an aristocracy by birth, is increasingly a land of hereditary oligarchs.

Not only is a more rigid class structure implied by the decline of public support for state universities, but more fixed race boundaries are, as well. State universities are the most important vehicle for minority students in attaining a degree. While 800,000 minority students attend public universities, fewer than 200,000 can be found on private campuses. If the state universities become as expensive as the privates, the impact on minorities could be severe. It should be noted that the choices made by California are not “natural” or “inevitable.” Maryland dealt with the recent crisis in a progressive way, by freezing tuition and raising the corporate tax rate to create a Higher Education Investment Fund.

Why have so many state legislatures betrayed their original commitments to American education? Some have preferred to keep state taxes on the wealthy and on corporations low rather than to keep up with demand for places at state universities. Others have different priorities.

This is the heart of the problem. While the likes of the mining industry and the mega-retailers pay next to nothing in taxes, students are essentially being taxed to the hilt and punished for the "crime" of wanting a college education. We seem to have no problem valuing future NBA All Stars and reality TV stars, but we refuse to value our future leaders.

Any wonder why our state is at its breaking point?

Happy Days Are Here Again?

Wall Street is ending the day in euphoria.

The Dow [Jones Industrial Index of 30 top US companies' stocks] closed up 490.05 points, or 4.2%, to 12,045.68. It was the largest point and percentage advance since March 23, 2009, when the index shot up 497 points, or 6.8% -- just as the latest bull market was beginning. [...]

The Dow is back in the black year to date, up 4%. Most U.S. indexes, however, still are down for the year.

"There's just a lot of good news in general," said Don Hays, the founder of Hays Advisory. [...]

Before U.S. markets opened, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and four other central banks unveiled a new program to increase access to dollars for struggling European banks. The move is designed to make it easier for European banks to access funds at a time when fears about the European debt crisis have led to a freeze in liquidity.

In the United States, the payroll company ADP said just before the markets opened that private-sector companies in the U.S. had added 206,000 employees in November. That is almost 100,000 more than they added in October and nearly 100,000 more than analysts had expected. The figures allay fears that the job market has ground to a halt.

Later in the day, data on business activity, pending home sales and general economic growth all came in better than expected.

"There were a range of different indicators on different parts of the U.S. economy, and they all did well," said Paul Ashworth, an economist with Capital Economics.

So what happened? Let's start with the biggest news of the day, which was the announcement that the world's top central banks (including our own Federal Reserve) will be coordinating to rescue the world's economy by making it easy to inject money into Europe's central banks, so they can easily lend money to European banks in dire need. While this may first seem like another "bank bailout" (and it essentially IS), it's also an effort by the big central banks to stop the Euro-zone crisis from plunging the entire globe into a greater recession.

So this big announcement turned out to be a big boost to markets across the globe today. And in addition to that, we also saw some good news here at home. Private sector job creation ticked up to 206,000 new employees this month, and this helped to calm fears of a looming double dip recession here in the US.

So is everything coming up roses again? Not so fast. The Federal Reserve expects slow growth at best in the coming year (2% annual GDP increase is only enough to keep up with population, NOT to recoup 2007-09 decline). And as we discussed earlier today, even that small amount of economic hope is threatened by further "tea party" favored austerity measures slashing federal investment (aka spending) to the point of causing GDP contraction and greater unemployment.

And getting back to today's big Euro-zone news, the whole argument of fairness resurfaces. Why do big European banks get bailed out, but not (formerly) middle class American homeowners, small business owners, or blue collar workers? Why are the top economic powers that be so willing to help the 1%, but not the 99%? I suspect what was announced today is badly needed to help stabilize the global economy, but at the same time far more action is needed... In particular, action that working class families can see and feel directly and immediately.

This is why we still see so much anger in politics today, even anger that seems misplaced and nonsensical at times. It's why this upcoming election may be especially turbulent. And though today's news shows some good signs for the economy, I suspect we'll still face rough waters ahead as long as unemployment remains high... And certain politicians try to keep it that way.

Joe Heck: Destroying America's Trust in Our Economy

Earlier this month, Joe Heck slipped this piece of legislation into THOMAS. It's called the "Restoring America's Faith and Trust Act", and it sounds as "American as apple pie!" I mean, come on, who doesn't like "Restoring America's Faith and Trust"?

Yet beneath that "All American" veneer, we discover something quite frightening. But before we take a closer look at Heck's bill, let's remember something Desert Beacon stated last week. This will really come in handy.

We are currently involved in two military operations, only one of which looks to be winding down in real time. These are expensive now in terms of operational expenses, and will continue to add costs as veterans return and we incur expenses for their medical, educational, and economic needs. Broadcast media reporting generally informs us about the strategy, end-game options, and operations in the field, but rarely explores how much this might be costing us on an annual basis, much less what the total expenses might be in the long run.

We have a tax structure that rewards non-work, i.e. the accumulation of capital gains, taxed at 15% and penalizes real work by taxing it at a higher rate, 35%. The lowest the top bracket has ever been came during the 1988 and 1989 tax years (28%), to be increased to 31% in 1990. It has stood at 35% since 2003. Again, broadcast media lets us know that we are “taxed to death” but rarely provides any historical context or economic analysis. The present system rewards those who play the Wall Street Casino games by taxing their income at 15% while those engaged in what most people would call “work” in the higher paid professions are paying 35%. The broadcast media has also been remiss in not providing the context of tax payments — we are paying the lowest actual taxes since Eisenhower was in the Oval Office.

This is the real heart of the current "debt/deficit 'crisis'". Because the economy is still shaky, the military had been overextended when George W. Bush decided to invade Iraq just a year after starting the Afghanistan war, and Bush actually CUT taxes on the super-rich instead of raising taxes to pay for the wars, we now face this huge budget deficit. Long before teabaggers supposedly started fretting about deficits and debt, their future Republican BFFs in Congress were regularly maxing out the nation's credit card when they refused to raise taxes (or cut spending) to pay for what they wanted.

So is this what Joe Heck's bill addresses? Nope, far from it! Nowhere in Heck's "Restoring America's Faith and Trust Act" does it address the Bush tax rates, war spending, or economic health. Instead, Heck wants to slash federal investment in our people to 2006 levels and fire more public sector workers! Even though we have more miltary veterans in need of VA care, college students in need of Pell Grants, working poor families in need of Medicaid and food stamps, retirees in need of Medicare and Social Security, and unemployed workers in need of unemployment insurance, Heck refuses to acqknowledge this reality and instead has introduced this bill that would plunge our economy into double-dip recession if enacted!

If we were to slash all these programs and more, we would all pay the price of further suffering. Without unemployment insurance, those without work can't survive. Same goes for seniors on Medicare, working poor families on food stamps and Medicaid, students with Pell Grants, and veterans using VA assistance. If they can't even buy food and basic supplies, let alone purchase anything else, our economy would take a massive hit. Oh, and in the longer term the budget deficit would only worsen as tax revenue plunges because of even more people losing their jobs.

Just like Dean Heller's unbalanced BBA nonsense, Joe Heck's try at fiscal kabuki theater would be just as destructive to our economy if implemented. Don't believe me? Look at Europe. Because of the increasingly extreme austerity regimes being imposed from Britain to Spain to Greece and more, economic growth has come to a halt. (And if it weren't for France and Germany and their "big spending ways", the entire Euro-zone would already officially be in recession.)

So why is Joe Heck doing this? Why does he want to risk torpedoing our economy into another (and potentially worse) recession? Well, why not ask him? He has to hear from us that the economy can't handle any more petty political games. The deficit that Americans are worrying about the most is the JOBS deficit, and Heck's "bitter pill" that he wants us to swallow would only hurt us more.

Surprise! Our Economy Still Sucks.

Why is anyone surprised? Seriously.

Nevada scored 21.3 out of 100 on the Opportunity Index, putting the state in last place in the ranking by Opportunity Nation, a campaign from Be the Change, and the American Human Development Project, part of the Social Science Research Council.

The ranking is based on criteria in three general categories: Economy, education and community health and civic life.

Nevada scored 4 out of 10 in the economy category, 1 out of 10 in education and 1 out of 10 in community health and civic life. The national averages for all three categories were between 5.4 and 5.6.

Nevada had the lowest scores in the nation of the percentage of high school students who graduate on time and the number of preschool-aged children enrolled in school. Plus, the report said 11.2 percent of Nevada teenagers are not in school or working.

The Silver State also received the lowest score in the nation on access to health care, with 86.7 primary care providers per 100,000 residents.

And the state had the second highest violent crime score in the nation, with 707 crimes per 100,000 people.

WOW! We continue to FAIL our way to the top of every list we shouldn't want to be on!

Look at this map and where you see the deepest, darkest blue (or opportunity). Look at the top states. Guess what? The likes of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Minnesota invest in their people... And sadly, we don't.

Remember this story from June? If even the teachers can't afford to stay in our schools, can we really expect the kids to learn? And if too many of the kids here don't learn, will we ever develop the kind of workforce we need for a healthy, diverse economy?

Maybe the Rebels are doing great on the b-ball court, but we're not succeeding where it really counts. I suspect what I said in June still stands.

There is a reason why education is so valuable. It really can be the key to unlocking a better future. But because Nevada doesn't value public education, we see the most of the best and brightest avoid this state like the plague while our economy remains hopelessly overdependent on casinos and tourism.

There's a reason why people in this state were crying out from January to March all the way to May. And even though Nevada has a budget, it still doesn't really do anything to solve our long-term problems. That's why there's a growing demand to take action next year, regardless of what Sandoval and The Legislature (don't) do in the interim.

Trust me. Daniel Avellino isn't the only teacher Nevada is losing. There are more like him who can no longer survive under the current system. And as long as we keep treating teachers like crap and continue underfunding our schools, public education will continue to circle the drain in the toilet in this state. Something has to be done to fix this. We can't keep waiting while our teachers are being forced to give up their passion and our students are being forced to give up their dreams.

All I want for Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanzaa is a Nevada that realizes we can no longer shortchange ourselves and our future.

Breaking My Silence on NV-01

In case you missed the big news this morning, nationally respected polling firm Anzalone-Liszt released a new NV-01 poll showing Dina Titus with a substantial 75% to 18% lead over Ruben Kihuen in the Democratic primary (that will likely determine the general election winner there). And while the media pundits will want to focus on the horse race aspect of the race, I think there's an even bigger story behind the top lines of this poll.

For one, there's no real "racial gap" among Democratic voters here. Instead, Dina leads with over 60% of the vote and by greater than 2-1 margins across all ethnic groups. Latino voters approve of what Dina did in the previous Congress, and so far they're not falling into the GOP trap of race baiting that Republicans want this primary to be about.

What's also fascinating is the lack of a "geographic gap" in the new NV-01. In both the current areas of the district and the former parts of NV-03 (that Dina Titus represented in 2009 and 2010) being added to the new NV-01, Dina leads with over 70% of the vote. For all the supposed controversy over where Dina lives, Democrats across the district know and love her.

So considering the big news today, perhaps I should break my silence here. Frankly, I'm getting awfully sick and tired of all the ridiculous accusations and over-the-top personal attacks that have defined this race so far. While I don't believe Ruben Kihuen is ignorant, inexperienced, lazy, or unprepared, I also don't believe Dina Titus is racist, "elitist", conservative (HA!), emasculating, or stealing (anything her detractors always falsely accuse her of).

We all know Dina Titus' record. Where is the "racism"? Where is the "elitism"? And where is the conservative?



So why even go there? I know Ruben is smart and determined. And I know Dina cares about all her constituents. And I know both can make an honest case for progressives' votes.

With that being said, I just hope that no one gives Nevada Republicans the holiday gift they want the most, which would be a progressive base destroyed because of ridiculous NV-01 infighting. Please, just let them keep destroying their own (lack of) operation. Please, NV-01 folks, don't toss any "get out of jail free" cards to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Dean Heller, and/or Joe Heck.

So far, it looks like Democratic primary voters aren't falling for the radical right's "divide and conquer" strategy. Let's keep it that way. Whether the NV-01 winner is Titus or Kihuen, we can't allow for the G-O-TEA to take everything else here in Nevada.

OK. I'm glad to get that off my chest. That's all, folks (at least for now).

The Message for 2012 (Who's with the 99%)

Apparently, local media are now noticing what we have been talking about here for some time. For all the talk about President Obama facing "DOOM!!!", he looks to be the only candidate with a real grassroots base and campaign infrastructure here in Nevada.

But today, I don't want to talk about just that. I also want to discuss the message. This morning, we caught a glimpse of this continuing work in progress as top Democrats stressed the need to address job creation and income inequality while certain Republicans again used "TAXES!!!" as a proxy battle for the same old class warfare. For all the rumors about Obama "abandoning the working class", we're not seeing that as his actions speak louder than certain pundits' words.

Nick Kristof reminded us this past weekend of what President Obama has actually done.

The administration helped tug us back from the brink of economic ruin. Obama oversaw an economic stimulus that, while too small, was far larger than the one House Democrats had proposed. He rescued the auto industry and achieved health care reform that presidents have been seeking since the time of Theodore Roosevelt.

Despite virulent opposition that has paralyzed the government, Obama bolstered regulation of the tobacco industry, signed a fair pay act and tightened control of the credit card industry. [...]

In foreign policy, Obama has taken a couple of huge risks. He approved the assault on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan, and despite much criticism he led the international effort to overthrow Muammar el-Qaddafi. So far, both bets are paying off.

This looks an awful lot like support for the 99% to me.



Yet while Obama hones in on this one message, leading G-O-TEA hopefuls can't seem to pick just one!



Even conservatives know who Mitt Romney works for (hint: think 1%). And seriously, it's not like the other G-O-TEA hopefuls are all that different.

In a sign of the growing impact the 99 Percent Movement is having, New Hampshire Union Leader publisher Joe McQuaid explained today on Fox News that his paper endorsed Newt Gingrich rather than Mitt Romney for the GOP Presidential nomination because the latter represents the one percent and is politically damaged because of it. “I think — and this is crazy, but so are we — that Gingrich is going to have a better time in the general election than Mitt Romney,” said McQuaid. “I think it’s going to be Obama’s 99% versus the 1%, and Romney sort of represents the 1%.”

Indeed, Romney’s net worth is estimated to be as high as $250 million — and much of this money was made through the same sort of corporate mergers and layoffs that have continually ripped off the 99 Percent. Ironically, Gingrich is also part of the one percent, “earning $2.5 million in personal income last year,” much of it accrued from using his government connections to assist major corporations.

OK, so even Romney can stick to this message! Without a doubt, a huge contrast is forming. Who's willing to work for the 99%? And who only cares about the 1%?

This is the message going into 2012. And this points us toward the real choice we will be making with our ballots next year.

Debunking Spin on "The Map"

Lately, there's been plenty of talk on how President Obama can win reelection next year. Pundits wonder about how he can escape the same geographic dilemma that did in Al Gore's and John Kerry's respective campaigns. What most don't seem to understand is that the answer is staring them right in the face.

Allow me to explain.

"The Map" has fundamentally changed since 2004. States like Virginia and Colorado, where past Democratic candidates had not seriously competed before, are looking good so far for Obama. And states like Oregon and New Mexico, which caused plenty of heartburn for Gore and Kerry, should not be a problem for Obama in 2012.

And in our own fine state of Nevada, the DC media crowd can't see the real ground game in action. OFA is working around the clock to lock in the base... And then expand it. Yet as I looked at the other side, I could not find one example of any GOP field operation. And I know I'm not the only one here who sees this.

The one factor keeping GOP hopes alive is Mitt Romney, but I suspect even this will prove to be a mirage for them. He still can't catch President Obama nationally, and I wholeheartedly believe he's weaker than most media pundits think. Remember, he SUPPORTS continuing the home foreclosure crisis, he continues to deploy logical pretzel twists to explain his record on health care, he flip-flops regularly on more than just health care (just look at his record on LGBTQ equality), and he simply cares nothing about middle class families.



So what's the result?

This is what I call the "worst case scenario" against Romney.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

This is what I sense is likely against Romney at this point.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

And this is what I see possible against an imploding Romney campaign or any of the other GOP contenders.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Not only am I increasingly confident that most Americans can see through the G-O-TEA BS, but I also sense that changing demographics is the ticking time bomb that's now causing real trouble for Republicans. Their xenophobia, homophobia, and "working class phobia" are just totally out of touch with an America that's becoming more diverse and less enamored with "class warfare" by the 1% against the 99%. I strongly sense that's Obama's ultimate Ace in the hold against the G-O-TEA in 2012. Considering the growing Latino population here in Nevada, as well as Colorado and Arizona, and considering the extreme G-O-TEA war on workers in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, I don't think any of these states should be considered a "slam dunk" for the Republicans. And considering the Republicans' weaknesses in so many swing states, the President looks anything but "DOOMED!!!"

Perhaps 2012 won't be the easiest election for progressives, but it's also far from a losing proposition.

Happy Thanksgiving

I'm spending the holiday weekend in California with family here. But don't worry, I haven't forgotten about you. Enjoy your holiday, and I'll have more exciting and fresh content for you next week.

The FAIL We All Saw Coming

Why is anyone surprised? The Supercommittee failed, and it's not all that difficult to figure out the culprit. Look at who was willing to make the painful cuts vs. who wanted to break the bank. It's really not hard to figure out.

Still, it can be perplexing to think about why we even did this in the first place. In today's LA Times, Michael Hiltzik expresses his frustration over Congress missing the point.

There were even more basic problems with the super committee. One was Congress' failure to recognize,
understand or acknowledge that pretty much 100% of the deficit growth going forward stems from rising healthcare costs. Who says so? The Congressional Budget Office, for one, which has projected the federal share of those costs rising to nearly 10% of gross domestic product in 2035 from 5.6% this year.

That points policy one direction: find a way to restrain healthcare costs without imposing undue burdens on the weakest and sickest members of society. A super committee devoted to that goal would have had a crack at creating a lasting economic legacy.

But the central problem was the very notion that deficit reduction is the most pressing fiscal issue facing the country. The super committee — indeed, every sensate being in Washington and across the country — has seen plenty of evidence that the most pressing issue is short-term economic growth.

Pump up growth, and even the long-term deficit begins to take care of itself. In October, the CBO estimated for the House Budget Committee that fully one-third of the deficit projected for 2012 was the result of the economic slump. Put another way, the projected deficit would be $630 billion, not $973 billion, if the economy were operating at full tilt.

Hiltzik then reminded us of what's most effective in reinvigorating the economy. And guess what does it? If you guessed all the programs G-O-TEA Congresscritters hate the most, then you're correct! Extending unemployment benefits, investing in infrastructure, and focusing tax cuts on the working class all help, but Republicans in Congress are blocking it all.

Why? Why do they want to harm the economy and put even more people out of work? Why do they want to risk an even deeper recession?

Well, that's something you have to ask them. And frankly, that's something they should have asked themselves when they set up the framework for this Supercommittee Super-FAIL in the first place.

More Nevada GOP FAIL: It's Not "First" in Anything

Remember when RNC leaders promised the Nevada GOP that they can keep their "First in the West" status AND rejoin the "Cool Kids Club" of early primary states in 2016 if it just gave up that January caucus? Well, that promise looks set to be broken before the 2012 cycle ends... Or even technically begins!

“Although Colorado doesn’t seem like the West, it is the West,” Nevada Republican National Committeewoman Heidi Smith told the Sun last month at a meeting of the Nevada GOP. “The problem was Colorado too ... they did damage to us.” [...]

The crisis was caused by Florida’s unsanctioned scheduling its primary for Jan. 31. Nevada rescheduled to early January to keep its place in line but encroached on New Hampshire’s date. So after weeks of pressure from everyone from the New Hampshire secretary of state to the Republican presidential candidates, the state GOP voted to retreat to Feb. 4, with assurances that next time the party picks a presidential nominee the state will get special treatment.

Nevada had to choose that date because Colorado was advancing, moving its caucuses from March 6 to Feb. 7.

For Nevada, that’s problematic. Though the dates for the 2012 primaries and caucuses seem to be set, it’s clear that Colorado is eyeing Nevada’s “first in the West” mantle. And there’s no guarantee the Silver State will keep it in future cycles — even for playing nice this time.

“We did not get a specific quid pro quo. What we got was a whole lot of goodwill that is going to go a long way,” Nevada Republican National Committeeman Bob List said of the state’s agreeing to move to a later date. “What we earned was a great deal of respect and admiration for doing the right thing.”

And apparently because the RNC doesn't really believe all the big talk about Nevada turning Red next year, it may strip us of "First in the West" status to instead bestow that crown upon Colorado in a last ditch effort to keep that state competitive in future cycles, since even Colorado looks to be slipping away from them.

So why again did the Nevada GOP cave into New Hampshire's demands, especially when we weren't the ones who caused the problem in the first place? (Remember, it was Florida jumping the calendar... Again.) Now they just look like chumps, and Nevada looks foolish. It looks like the RNC really doesn't care about Nevada's "special status".

So in the end, Ralston was right. The Nevada GOP got screwed, and it's getting nothing in return.

It's Over (At Least for Now)

At long last, the charade is coming to an end. Why? Do you really need me to tell you?

“There is one sticking divide, and that is the issue of what I call shared sacrifice, where everybody contributes in a very challenging time for our country,” [Senator Patty] Murray [D-WA, Co-chair of Budget Supercommittee] told CNN’s Candy Crowley on “State of the Union.”

“That’s the Bush tax cuts, and making sure that any kind of package includes everybody coming to the table and the wealthiest of Americans, those who earn over a million dollars every year, have to share, too. And that line in the sand, we haven’t seen any Republicans willing to cross yet,” Murray said.

Surprise, the Supercommittee is now virtually guaranteed to collapse... And do so entirely because Republicans refused to budge on asking the wealthiest of Americans to share in the sacrifice.

However, the super-wealthy will eventually have to share in the sacrifice despite... Or perhaps, BECAUSE of what's about to happen to the Supercommittee. Remember when the G-O-TEA leadership gloated over getting "98%" of what they wanted? Well, that's blowing back at them awfully hard.

But how did the president even get to have this leverage? I hate to sound like a broken record, but he made the Republicans in Congress hand him this leverage on a silver platter while John Boehner was too busy dancing around saying how he got 98% of what he wanted from the debt limit deal (and Markos Moulitsas was lapping John Boehner's words right up). The debt limit deal's automatic cuts in defense and Medicare provider and insurance company payments, while taking off the table Medicare benefits, social security and other programs for the needy, put the Republicans in a rut. And for once, Congressional Democrats seem to be playing their hands right on this one. Pelosi, Reid and other Democrats have signaled that if the Republicans don't cave on taxing the rich, they will block GOP attempts to spare the defense industry from the cuts. [...]

That's leverage. While everyone thought that the president "caved" during the debt deal by not getting any revenue raisers up front, those who actually read and studied the damn thing saw this day coming clear as daylight. And don't think for a second that the White House is not behind this newfound resistance on the Democratic side against the GOP attempts to restore the Defense spending that would be cut if the supercommittee fails.

Why? Because President Obama and Leaders Reid and Pelosi fundamentally understand what the Republicans are actually trying to do here: they know they handed the leverage to the President and Democrats on a silver platter, and this attempt to restore the Defense spending is in reality an attempt to nullify that leverage and instead gain an upper hand as the leverage goes to the domestic spending side (advantage GOP). That's why the Democrats are not about to let it happen.

Now was this a total success for progressives? I wouldn't necessarily go that far. We still must endure even more cuts in public investment that are counter-productive during times of recession and recovery. However, the very worst case scenario (which would have been Medicare & Social Security cuts while allowing the Bush tax rates to stay in place) was avoided. And instead, we'll mostly see cuts that won't be nearly as hurtful (like the military spending cuts that some GOP politicians fear the most).

As I warned back in early August, the G-O-TEA crowd were gearing for full "Californication" of the country by holding the full faith and credit of America hostage. But in their zeal for hostage taking and big talking, they managed to allow President Obama and Democratic Congressional leaders to grab a handy Ace in the hole. And while Democrats may not end up with a Royal Flush, our high cards definitely win over their pile of junk.

Why do you think certain Congress critters are now huffing and puffing over the BBA? And why do you think the G-O-TEA Clown Car candidates are doubling down on destroying Medicare and Social Security? They know they are in deep trouble as the Supercommittee is set to implode this week. And once it's over, we'll have a chance next year to have real dialogue on real solutions to the economic problems we face.