Quick Thoughts on the Final Debate

So tonight was the final debate. It was supposed to be about foreign policy. Instead, it looked like a certain someone tried to make it into a shitfest on everything but foreign policy.

Here's TPM Editor Josh Marshall on what happened.

The first half hour was a draw, though President Obama scored by default when Romney either didn’t or couldn’t attack on Libya.

After that though Romney began to falter as Obama became more direct, organized and declarative. Romney seemed increasingly lost. Obama seemed comfortable, happy. The visuals told the story. Romney was sweating a lot and looked like he was in pain. Into the second half of the debate Romney’s answers seemed more jumbled and unfocused. There was even the rambling and generally uncontroversial digression on Pakistan. Why? He seemed lost.

Translated into Romney visuals he had what President Obama had in the first debate: that look of someone who wanted to be anywhere but on that stage.

This is why Mitt Romney didn't want to talk about foreign policy. He clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. He wants to criticize every action taken by President Obama, but he can't actually describe his own plan of action on Iran, Libya, China, or Russia...

Obama took the chance to needle Romney on his adversarial position on Russia. “I’m glad that you recognize al Qaeda is a threat. Because a few months ago when you were asked the biggest threat facing America, you said Russia,” Obama said. “The Cold War has been over for 20 years. But governor, when it comes to our foreign policy, you seem to want to import the foreign policies of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s and the economic policies of the 1920s.”

Later Obama said directly to Romney, “You indicated that we shouldn’t be passing nuclear treaties with Russia, despite the fact that 71 senators, Democrats and Republicans, voted for it.”

... Or anywhere else.

So instead, he wanted to talk about how much he loves teachers. Oh, and he wanted to throw out more G-O-TEA talking points on the economy.

And this comes back to the whole issue of "The Commander-in-Chief Test". How has Mitt Romney proven himself in that test? Has he even tried the test? How can he be President if he can't explain his vision of presenting America to the rest of the world?

And herein lies (another reason) why Mitt Romney still struggles in this campaign.

El Voto Latino

We've talked extensively about the importance of Latino voters in this election. Today, we're given at least a couple more reminders of this.

First off, we have the new Latino Decisions poll and some very interesting numbers there.

After a slight decline in last week’s poll, Obama’s support is back up near his previous high 3 weeks ago. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, a combined 71% of respondents were certain or likely to vote for Obama, compared to 67% last week and 72% two weeks ago. A combined 20% were certain or likely to vote for Romney, compared to 23% last week and 20% two weeks ago.

One of the most interesting electoral stories over the last two weeks may be that while the overall national polls show Romney making noticeable gains on Obama, among the Latino electorate Romney gained only 3 points during his rise, but lost those 3 points back this week and stands at 20%. And a very important footnote to the national polls – if they are not accurately polling and counting Latino voters which will comprise 10% of all voters, they may be overstating Romney’s numbers by 2 or 3 points.

At the very least, this may explain the strange national poll numbers that occasionally pop up. If their likely voter screens are excluding too many Latin@ voters, just as most public polls of Nevada do, then the actual reality on the ground may be different from what's being said on the cable shows. And it explains why President Obama's campaign isn't breaking a sweat over the above mentioned national polls.

However, at least some from the national media are taking a closer look at what's happening here in Nevada. And perhaps they're starting to realize what's actually occurring on the ground.

“Before President Obama made his decision to go forward with deferred action, it was pretty dismal,” said Vicenta Montoya, an immigration attorney and Democratic activist. “I was going to vote for Obama but it wasn’t going to be with grand enthusiasm.”

Now Obama’s order has fired up Montoya and others in East Las Vegas, a swath of shopping centers, tire shops and weathered ranch houses sprawling east from the Strip. It’s the neighborhood of the often-unionized people who make Sin City function: housekeepers, card dealers and taxi drivers.

For some, Obama’s order pulled them into politics. Earlier this month, Hector Rivera’s father asked him what he was going to do with his future. Rivera, a high school senior who was brought into the United States without authorization when he was 5, went to the East Las Vegas Obama campaign office and volunteered.

The teenager already has applied for documents allowing him to work under Obama’s program. “It’s an opportunity for me and future generations,” said Rivera, 17, imagining how his own unborn children could benefit someday. “Even though they’ll be born here, I want to get a better job to give them a better opportunity so they can live a better life.”

Others, like Sergio Solis, have suffered economically but see the president as on their side. Solis had to close a restaurant in Southern California and move here to work as a salesman for an energy company. But, after approvingly mentioning the DREAM Act, Solis said it will take time to correct the country’s course following the eight years of the George W. Bush administration.

“This building here, I can dynamite it and destroy it in five minutes,” Solis said, gesturing to a supermarket where he was handing out brochures. “But I can’t build it back up in five minutes.”

This is a major reason why both Mitt Romney and Dean Heller are in serious trouble here. Like the rest of the G-O-TEA, they have embraced the anti-Latin@ xenophobia of their "base". And now, they are paying the price as Latin@ voters keep their distance from the Nevada G-O-TEA.

As I've been saying all along, this may be the ultimate factor in pushing Nevada (again) into the blue column this fall.

First Weekend of Early Voting Turnout Report

In case Saturday didn't provide enough drama and surprise, we can see even more amazing numbers in today's early vote report. Here's where we stand after the first weekend of early voting:

- In Clark County, 22.46% more Democrats than Republicans voted early in the first two weekend. To put things into perspective, Democrats finished with a 14.96% voter registration advantage earlier this month.

- In NV-03, Democrats built a 9.42% turnout advantage this past weekend. Here, Democrats closed voter registration with a 2.11% registration advantage.

- In the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats so far have a 29.39% turnout advantage. For all of NV-04, Democrats finished with a 13.27% registration advantage.

- We also saw interesting early voting turnout numbers in the key State Senate districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats reached a 12.90% turnout advantage. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats hit a 20.09% turnout advantage. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats reached a 9.93% turnout advantage. And in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Democrats reached an 8.04% turnout advantage. With the one exception of SD 9, Democrats dramatically overperformed voter registration in all the other competitive Senate seats.

- And finally, after two days of early voting Democrats have so far managed to produce a 9.79% turnout advantage in Washoe County. Early this month, Republicans (!!!) actually closed with a tiny 0.005% voter registration edge.

So in the first two days of early voting here in Nevada, Democrats have run up a major turnout advantage in the two most populous counties in the state. This is certainly a good start for them. So what's to come this week? We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

This is How Elections Are Won.

Here in Nevada, early voting started yesterday. And it was truly a momentous occasion. Not only did people turn out to be among the first in this state to cast ballots, but the lines (and the determination of these voters to stay in line to vote) were truly awe inspiring!

Late last night, Jon Ralston leaked the Clark County and Washoe County early vote numbers.

Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge.

So: After one day -- remember it's only oen day! -- using absentees and early votes in Clark and early votes in Washoe (don't have absentees yet), the Democrats have an 11,000-vote lead statewide. Let's see where we go from here. [...]

The Washoe numbers: 48-38, or 4,604-3,619 (Actual registration: 38-38)

Yes, it's only one day. But if it continues like this, Nov. 6 is going to be a very bleak day for Republicans in this state.

Yes, I know. These numbers seem so wildly unbelievable. But really, it happened!

Let me explain to you how it happened. Let's start with this scene at the Galleria Mall in Henderson.



Yes, all these people were actually waiting to vote. Oh, and I was one of them!



And that wasn't all. Throughout the day, Nevada Democrats were making calls and knocking on tons of doors to turn out voters for President Obama, Shelley Berkley, and all other Democrats down the ballot. And most of the voters in this middle class neighborhood just up the freeway from the Las Vegas Strip were happy to see the volunteers at their doors... And they made their plans to vote early.







Funny enough, yesterday evening I saw a group of Republicans canvass this very neighborhood as well. They were dropping Mitt Romney and Dean Heller literature... At DEMOCRATIC doors! And the Democrats in that neighborhood were none too pleased.

And when the "Team Nevada" Republican canvassers were finished, they were picked up by a big white "paddy wagon". No really, I kid you not!

Meanwhile, another set of Democratic canvassers were coming in for the final round of "EGOTV" (early get out the vote) for the day. After all, today is another day of early voting. And there are still many more Democratic voters to turn out.

Believe it or not, this is how elections are won.

The Biggest Little Legislature Race in the World

Every so often, we are reminded of perhaps "The Most Important Race You Don't (Often) Hear About". Today just happens to be one of those days. Yes, there was another debate.

And last night in Reno, Greg Brower (R) and Sheila Leslie (D) traded barbs on a number of topics, such as mining taxes and overall tax fairness.

Leslie painted Brower as a conservative Republican beholden to tea party interests. She said he was against extending taxes that were set to expire in 2011 to balance the budget and now supports extending them.

“When he went to the session in 2011 and started running for Congress, that’s when he became a tea party Republican,” Leslie said.

Leslie repeated her call for a form of corporate tax throughout the debate and advocated for getting rid of the modified business tax and lowering the sales tax. She added the state’s mining industry is not paying its fair share.

“Even Sarah Palin in Alaska knew better, she taxed oil,” Leslie said. “We need to tax the natural resources we have, and that’s mining.”

Brower said the state’s mining industry is paying its fair share and that any corporate tax could be bad for job creation. He agreed there should be tax reform that should be bipartisan.

“The last thing we need to do as a state is do anything that would jeopardize job creation and investment,” Brower said.

He noted Leslie voted for the modified business tax in 2003. Leslie, in turn, said she voted for the 2003 tax because it was a bipartisan solution at the time of a major financial crisis for the state.

Notice something strange here? I do. First, Greg Brower slammed the idea of progressive tax reform. Then, he said any tax reform should be done in a bipartisan manner. Yet from there, he criticized Sheila Leslie for voting for the bipartisan 2003 tax deal that was crafted by a group of REPUBLICAN legislators as an alternative to REPUBLICAN Governor Kenny Guinn's original tax plan! Wait, how does this even make sense? How can Greg Brower claim he wants "bipartisan solutions" on tax reform, claim he wants "balance" in the Legislature, then castigate Sheila Leslie for agreeing to compromise with the Republicans who had to compromise with each other (!!!) in order to reach a deal on taxes and the state budget?

This is a big reminder for voters in Reno's SD 15 that they indeed have an extremely important choice to make. Even though this may be Bill Raggio's old seat, Greg Brower isn't actually playing by Raggio's playbook of consensus building. Rather, he's pretty much doing what Michael Roberson tells him to do... Which is more or less a slightly modified version of the typical G-O-TEA agenda of attacking workers' rights, privatizing everything in sight, and pumping out more bailouts for billionaires (while sticking working class taxpayers with the bill).

This is why Roberson and his G-O-TEA buddies have spent so much on Brower's behalf. And this is why they fear a Leslie victory here. This is something voters in SD 15 should keep in mind. The decision they make may truly have a strong and lasting impact on our state.

Nevada Democrats Finish with 7.17% Voter Registration Lead

Yes, you read the headline correctly. The final voter registration report is here. And here's what's in it:

- Statewide, Nevada Democrats now have a 90,187 raw vote advantage. And yes, that makes for a 7.17% advantage. Back in March, Democrats only had about a 4% statewide edge. And it was even smaller earlier this year.

- In Washoe County, Republicans' voter registration edge has narrowed even further. It's now a mere 1,169 raw votes, or 0.005%. In March, Republicans had a 1.76% edge.

- In Clark County, Democrats are closing with a 127,471 raw vote lead, or a 14.96% advantage. In March, Democrats had an 11.68% advantage countywide.

- In NV-03, Democrats are closing with a 7,066 raw vote lead, or a 2.11% edge. In March, Republicans actually had a tiny 0.01% edge.

- In NV-04, Democrats are closing with a 41,094 raw vote lead, or a 13.27% advantage. In March, Democrats had a 9.91% advantage.

- There are also some eye popping numbers in the key State Senate Districts which will determine control of the Nevada Legislature next year. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats have gone from a mere 3.92% registration edge in March to a 5.38% lead now. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats have gone from a 4.36% advantage in March to a 7.12% lead now. In the Southwest Vegas Valley based SD 9, Democrats have risen from a 4.86% lead in March to an 8.10% advantage now. In the West Reno based SD 15, Republicans have gone from a 2.04% edge in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now. And in the Northwest Las Vegas based SD 18, Republicans have fallen from a 2.39% advantage in March to a tiny 0.01% edge now.

So clearly, all of Nevada Democrats' hard work in the field paid off considerably. Now, it's all about turnout. And there's already been quite a lot of work to prepare for that.

NV-04: From Delusional to Shameless & Hypocritical

So today, it happened. It finally happened. Why am I not surprised?

Danny Tarkanian finds himself in the hot seat yet again. And this time, it's over "funny money" he's been loaning to his own campaigns.

The Nevada Democratic Party has filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission against Republican congressional hopeful Danny Tarkanian.

The complaint filed Thursday questions Tarkanian’s legal standing to forgive a $250,000 loan he made to his failed 2010 U.S. Senate campaign after a judge signed a $17 million judgment against him.

It also questions the legality of other transactions, including a subsequent $40,000 loan made to his U.S. House campaign.

Democrats allege the GOP nominee for Nevada’s 4th Congressional District lacked legal control over his personal funds after a federal judge in May signed the judgment against Tarkanian and other members of his family stemming from a failed real estate deal.

On Monday, we discussed Danny Tarkanian's inability to take responsibility for his own actions. And we're seeing this on full display yet again today. Even though he's been spending the past two tears facing a $17,000,000 (!!!) FDIC judgment over a shoddy plan to develop am "equestrian resort" 35 miles from Palm Springs, CA, Baby Tark keeps pretending that this is "no big deal" and he can keep behaving as if it doesn't exist.

But here's the problem: It does exist. And Baby Tark just can't wave a magic wand to make this $17,000,000 judgment go away.

Earlier this month, The Sun's Patrick Coolican pointed out the eye popping reality of what happened.

As my former colleague Michael Mishak reported during Tarkanian’s failed 2010 Senate bid, Tarkanian was approached by a friend and business partner in 2007 to invest in Dignitary Downs, an “equestrian destination resort” in Anza, Calif., complete with a 200-room hotel, restaurant and jockey school.

The Tarkanian family company, Diamond Properties, would play the role of “hard money lender.” It would borrow money from La Jolla Bank, using its own property as collateral, and then lend it to the developer at high interest. This was faddish during the boom, especially for “unconventional” development schemes —such as, say, a horse resort — that couldn’t get regular financing.

Tarkanian personally guaranteed the loan from La Jolla Bank, which means he was on the hook. He used a nearly 9-acre undeveloped parcel near the M Resort as collateral. Needless to say, it’s worth a fraction of what it was in 2007.

Horse resort ... Anza, Calif. ... hard money loan ...2007 ... La Jolla Bank: This is a thickly stacked failure sandwich.

Almost immediately, the developer went into default. Sadly, there would be no horse resort after all.

Meanwhile, La Jolla Bank failed and was seized by the FDIC, the independent government entity that insures depositors and supervises the soundness of banks, managing them when they fail.

And once La Jolla Bank was seized by the FDIC, Danny Tarkanian was then required to pay back the $17 million he borrowed in order to invest in a (supposedly) soon to be developed "horse resort" 35 miles away from Palm Springs. But so far instead of owning up to this EPIC FAIL of a development scheme, Tarkanian keeps running away and pretending like it doesn't exist.

Seriously, is this the kind of person Nevada wants to send to Congress? Coolican asked that earlier this month, Harry Reid asked it earlier this week, and I have to ask it now. If Danny Tarkanian refuses to take responsibility for his own development debacle, how can he be responsible with the entire budget of the federal government?

What makes this disgusting is seeing how Baby Tark and his teabagger buddies have been attacking Steven Horsford for his family's past tragedies. Yet while Tarkanian and the G-O-TEA attack Horsford, they keep conjuring up more excuses for the $17,000,000 FDIC hot mess. They must truly have no shame.

Another Surprise from Mark Mellman

Hot on the heels of yesterday's NV-Sen poll from Mark Mellman showing Shelley Berkley holding onto a 3% lead, Mellman is at it again with another stunning poll.

President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change.

AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here.

Again, Mark Mellman was one of the ONLY pollsters, public or private, to correctly call the winner (Harry Reid) and the margin (just over 5%) in the 2010 NV-Sen race. When Mellman speaks, everyone must listen.

Oh, and here are some more reasons why everyone should listen to this. First off, Nevada has over 7.1% more registered Democrats than Republicans. Secondly, Nevada Democrats have been working incredibly hard in the field to prepare for a strong GOTV ("get out the vote") finish. And finally, Nevada's changing demographics are reshaping the electorate in ways that truly frighten the now "tea party" controlled Nevada GOP.

This is why, now more than ever before, Nevada is poised to remain a Blue State this fall. Early voting begins tomorrow, and by next week we'll get a fuller sense of what's actually happening. But certainly even now, President Obama must be liking his chances here.

Another NPRI #FAIL for Today

Here's something I almost missed in today's Las Vegas Sun. Guess who opposes the Henderson Library initiative?

Oh, yes. That's right. They're back!

Victor Joecks, communications director for NRPI, a local libertarian think tank, said tax proponents are being sensationalist and he believes the libraries are relatively healthy given the current state of the economy.

“It’s not this all-or-nothing proposition that’s being put out there,” Joecks said. “The system has grown very healthfully, faster than population growth would dictate. They take the high-water mark for funding, then say they have been cut so much from that high-water mark and now we need a tax increase. ... The library system is doing very well. This is a choice between growing at a rapid rate or an exorbitant rate.”

The library district is independent from the city of Henderson, and the majority of its $7 million budget comes from property taxes. The district’s prerecession funding high was approximately $10 million. The district expects property values to continue to slide in the next few years, further decreasing its funding. It argues the Galleria and Malcolm library branches will be shuttered if the tax initiative, which would raise property taxes by 2 cents per $100 in assessed value, does not pass.

Thomas Fay, Henderson Library District executive director, said efficiencies have been exhausted. The library has cut hours numerous times, and at the beginning of October, district libraries started closing on Mondays. The number of full-time equivalent staff hit a high of 101 in 2009, just after the district reopened a renovated Green Valley branch that had been transferred in 2005 from the Las Vegas-Clark County Library District. In fiscal 2011, the Henderson district had the equivalent of 86.5 full-time employees. Fay said staff from Malcolm and Galleria branches have been finding new jobs amid the uncertainty, and the total staff currently stands at the equivalent of 77.5 full-time employees. He is holding off on hiring anyone until after the tax initiative vote.

If the initiative is approved, the district is estimating a revenue boost of approximately $1.5 million in the first year of collection, fiscal 2013-2014.

“This doesn’t fix everything,” Fay said. “We’ve lost $2.5 million, heading toward $3 million, a year. We feel we have put in a lot of efficiencies, and this is just enough to get us through the next 10 years.”

Clearly, the dittoheads at NPRI don't know shit. After all, they're the ones who are working to defeat the bipartisan school bond initiative just to make an ideological point. Have they even been to any of the Henderson Libraries lately?

I have. And I have seen with my own two eyes how one of them has fallen into disrepair.







And I have experienced firsthand the shortened business hours, ongoing staff cuts, and other effects of recent budget cuts at the Henderson Libraries. If the initiative fails, not only will there be more cuts, but entire libraries will close! Clearly, the "tea party" dittoheads at NPRI are so trapped in their narrow ideological fantasy-land that they can't discuss the dire straits of our local libraries here in the real world.

The Henderson Library District is just asking for $7 per $100,000 in property value per year. That's it. And that's just to maintain what it now has. Seriously, this is what NPRI is attacking.

And this is why no rational human being should take NPRI seriously.

NV-Sen: Maybe "Newspaper" Can't Save Heller?

Another day, another crazy "newspaper poll". Today, the "newspaper" is claiming Dean Heller has taken a 6% lead overall in the Senate race... And that he's doing so because he's supposedly leading (??!!) among Latino voters and is running close in Clark County. Come on, now. You know what's coming next.



Here's what Ralston says.

"Newspaper" shows Heller up 6. Also: He's winning Latinos by 8, indies by 25 and close in Clark. Welcome 2 fantasyland: http://t.co/V5ZEL0KC

And here's what I say. Again, most public pollsters have a bad habit of undersampling likely Democratic voters. And in particular, Survey USA (the company the "newspaper" now uses for polling) is notorious for paying no interest whatsoever in ensuring it has the proper demographics. There's really no reason to whip into a fury over lousy polls.

It seems like Shelley Berkley herself is not. Instead, yesterday she met with The Las Vegas Sun editorial board to discuss why she believes she has what it takes to serve as one of Nevada's US Senators.

Berkley also took Heller to task for supporting a Republican-backed budget that would reconfigure Medicare, turning the program into a subsidy that Democrats have charged is a voucher program for anyone under age 55.

“That’s not Medicare,” Berkley said. “It’s some version of health care for older Americans, but it’s not Medicare.”

Heller, who has not responded to invitations to address the Sun’s editorial board, has said he was proud of his two votes for the budget in question, commonly referred to as the “Ryan budget” after the congressman and now-vice presidential candidate who wrote it. He has also argued that the changes to Medicare within it are necessary to the long-term sustainability of the program, and do not upset the fundamental object and purpose of the Medicare program.

Berkley listed her positions on energy development (she’s in favor of investing in renewables), small business (she wants to keep their taxes low) and tourism promotion (she wants more visa waivers and travel tax credits) as her biggest selling points for improving the economy in Nevada. [...]

On immigration, Berkley repeated that she would not vote in favor of a compromise bill that did not include a pathway to citizenship for certain undocumented immigrants.

There you have it. This is honestly another big reason why I doubt Heller is doing all that well here in Southern Nevada. He doesn't even want to meet with the editoral board of the one legitimate newspaper in this town! In addition, he's been skipping candidate forums and other opportunities for Clark County voters to meet him. And, of course, he's been struggling as of late to hide his "tea party" sympathies from voters.



Remember this. It's far more insightful than what we're seeing in that other "newspaper" today.

11:00 AM UPDATE:

Here's what Ralston just caught.

I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today.

Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. [...]

All about turnout now and Mellman's models are as good as they get in Nevada.

Yep, yep, yep. The top lines are 41% Berkley (D) & 38% Heller (R) with 5% for the IAP candidate and 11% undecided. While I suspect the IAP candidate may not actually get that high of a vote count come November 6, on the other hand we're talking about a Mark Mellman poll here. He nailed the NV-Sen 2010 results when almost every other pollster choked. This shouldn't be taken lightly.

Should Be Good Day for Joe Biden in Reno

Today, Joe Biden will be campaigning in Reno. Hot off the heels of both his own debate with Paul Ryan and last night's Presidential Debate, there will be a lot of eyes and a lot of TV cameras descending into Downtown Reno this afternoon.

Oh, and by the way, here's The RGJ's verdict on last night's debate.

“I would say Obama [won the debate],” said Fred Lokken, a political science professor at Truckee Meadows Community College. “Clearly, this was the performance that he needed in the first debate. He came back really strong and solidified his base in the process.” [...]

When the debate Tuesday turned to immigration issues, it sunk Romney’s chances, said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno.

“Oh, that was the killer,” Herzik said. “Even before the question was asked, Obama had already brought up self-deportation. Obama also brought up that we were a nation of immigrants. And then, when the immigration question was asked, Romney was all over the place trying to answer the question.”

“Essentially, Romney could not walk away from the Republican primaries on this one, where the Republican answer (to immigration) was to build a fence,” Herzik said. “And if that was not enough, electrify it.”

Lokken also saw the immigration question as a turning point. But there were others, he said.

“Obama clearly addressed women, he clearly spoke to immigrants, especially Hispanic-Americans, and he especially reached out and really connected with his ‘47 percent’ issue at the end of the debate,” Lokken said. “Those were the things that the Democrats were looking for in this debate because they were woefully absent in the first debate.”

As we discussed last night, President Obama finally reached his "A Game" and hit Mitt Romney on everything from women's health to foreign affairs to education to immigration and more. Finally, Obama took the offensive on the debate stage and confronted Romney with his own record. It turned out to be quite the powerful performance.

And with early voting starting this Saturday here in Nevada, last night's debate may be the last impression voters have of the candidates... Except, of course, if they plan to see Joe Biden in person today in Reno or tomorrow in Las Vegas. I'm sure Biden will be smiling quite a bit during his visit to Nevada.

NV-03/NV-04: Richard Ziser Strikes Yet Again!

He's back! If you thought we were finally done with him, then you're about to be proven wrong. Richard Ziser is back in full force this election season. And in fact, he has a brand new "Values Voter Guide" to prove it. And yes, there are some truly scary answers in there...Thanks to Joe Heck and Danny Tarkanian!

Let's see what's in it:

- Both Heck & Tarkanian want to reinstate "Don't Ask Don't Tell" and discrimination against LGBTQ servicemembers in the military.

- Both Heck & Tarkanian oppose ENDA, meaning they approve of workplace discrimination against LGBTQ workers.

- Both Heck & Tarkanian oppose marriage equality and the repeal of DOMA, meaning their talk of "state's rights" is hogwash and they want the federal government to tell states and communities which relationships deserve respect & which don't (such as gay & lesbian couples).

- Both Heck & Tarkanian support defunding Planned Parenthood and all the women's (and men's, too!) health care services they provide.

- And both Heck & Tarkanian oppose comprehensive immigration reform.

Well, now we know why both candidates missed Las Vegas Pride last month. And we know why Joe Heck doesn't like to talk about LGBTQ issues. And we know why Danny Tarkanian doesn't like to talk about immigration reform. And we now know why both Heck & Tarkanian are afraid to talk about women's health.

We now know Richard Ziser loves them both. And that's downright scary for a whole lot of Nevadans.

First Thoughts on Third Debate

Phew! After the first debate, there was plenty of sturm und drang... And angst and moaning and groaning and wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Well, tonight was different. Kevin Drum explains.

For my money, the worst moment of the night for Romney came on Libya. He hauled out a stale conservative talking point about Obama not calling the Benghazi attack an act of terror, and when he confronted Obama about it, Obama just smiled and let him hang. Unexpectedly, this flustered Romney. Then, a few seconds later, Candy Crowley interrupted to confirm that Obama did, in fact, call it a terror attack the very next day. That really flustered Romney. This is the kind of segment that ends up getting repeated on cable news over and over and over.

Obama had a pretty good line early on about Romney's economic views: "Governor Romney doesn't have a five-point plan, he has a one-point plan." That one point, of course, is looking out for the interests of the rich. I wish Obama had had a chance to hammer that a little harder, but it never really came up.

Romney has talked before about the idea of capping deductions rather than eliminating them, but this was by far the most public forum in which he's mentioned it. For all practical purposes, I think that makes this the official Romney position: A 20% across-the-board rate cut paired with a $25,000 maximum for itemized deductions. The math on that comes nowhere close to working, though, and it's pretty easy to prove it. I wonder how long it will be before the Romney campaign backpedals on this?

Obama did a good job of hitting Romney on his tax plan, taking it slowly and all but accusing him of deliberately trying to deceive middle-class voters. It's hard to know if this made a dent, though. Too many numbers just puts people to sleep.

Oddly enough, I think both candidates did better tonight than two weeks ago. Obama was, obviously, way better. I'd give him an A-. But Romney was better too. I'd probably give him a good B, maybe even a B+ if I were feeling generous. I don't know how much the first debate really affected the polls, but if it did, this one ought to correct at least some of the damage.

I pretty much have to agree. President Obama was definitely on his A game tonight. While Mitt Romney was also fairly solid in his style, there was finally more attention paid to his shoddy substance.

And perhaps what was most painful for Romney was the removal of the "Moderate Mitt" mask which Romney used so well two weeks ago. Tonight, President Obama was finally able to confront Romney on his delicate dance with the teabaggers, and his current effort to make voters forget about it. Whether on women's health, the 47% versus the 99% (economic justice), Middle East policy, or gun safety, President Obama finally managed to "connect the dots" and point out what Mitt Romney has really been running on.

Tonight may have truly been a "game change" in that President Obama got his groove back... And blunted "Mitt-mentum" for good.

Democrats Top 7% Voter Registration Advantage Statewide

Ralston broke the news just moments ago. Nevada Democrats almost hit the magic 90,000 mark in raw vote lead today... And the count is not over quite yet!

Here's where we stand now:

- Statewide, the exact Democratic registration lead is 89,605, or 7.15%. In last Friday's statewide report, it stood at 6.93%.

- In Washoe County (Reno-Sparks Metro), Republicans have gone from a 0.68% (or 1,620 raw vote) edge to a mere 0.005% barely there edge (!!!), or 1,172 raw votes.

- And as noted yesterday, Democrats are nearing a very healthy 15% registration advantage in Clark County (Metro Las Vegas).

So it's virtually guaranteed that Nevada Democrats will finish with a voter registration advantage of over 7% and 90,000 raw votes. To further put things into perspective, Nevada Democrats had about 100,000 more voters than Republicans at the end of registration in 2008, and about 60,000 more voters at the end of registration in 2010. Now, it's all about the ground game.

Oh, and by the way, here's what Ralston had to say about that.

MarkHalperin

@RalstonReports on MSNBC: comparing D and R ground game in NV is like comparing "a Ferrari to a Matchbox car." yourmetaphorsmatter

Retweeted by Jon Ralston 8:41am - 15 Oct 12

Need I say more?

NV-Sen: One More Serving of "Moderate" Baloney

This week's debate on "Ralston Reports" marks the final NV-Sen debate of the year. And like previous debates, he tried to sound "moderate" at first. But then, something interesting happened : He started to let his G-O-TEA self shine through.



This has been an ongoing struggle for Dean Heller. He occasionally sends signals, such as cheaply produced letters to registered Democrats and (far more expensive) glitzy TV ads with Brian Sandoval, suggesting he's truly a "moderate consensus builder". However, the problem for Heller is that his own record tells a different story.





Oh, and keep this in mind as well.

The latest flyer in my mail box encourages me to vote for Senator By Appointment Only® Dean Heller in the Nevada senate race because he opposes Obamacare. The Faith and Freedom Coalition of Duluth, GA assures me that Senator Heller would “repeal Obamacare.” I’m not surprised, after all this is Jack Abramoff’s former buddy Ralph Reed’s outfit — he, the refuge from the defunct Christian Coalition, would like me to believe that his Koch Brothers financed FFC has my lily-white interests at heart.

After all, nothing screams "MODERATE!!!" like taking help from an associate of an ex-convict and ex-lobbyist known for marrying the radical religious right with the "Tea Party, Inc." corporate right.

Keep this all in mind next time Heller wants to talk up his "moderate" credentials.