The Biggest Little Legislature Race in the World

Every so often, we are reminded of perhaps "The Most Important Race You Don't (Often) Hear About". Today just happens to be one of those days. Yes, there was another debate.

And last night in Reno, Greg Brower (R) and Sheila Leslie (D) traded barbs on a number of topics, such as mining taxes and overall tax fairness.

Leslie painted Brower as a conservative Republican beholden to tea party interests. She said he was against extending taxes that were set to expire in 2011 to balance the budget and now supports extending them.

“When he went to the session in 2011 and started running for Congress, that’s when he became a tea party Republican,” Leslie said.

Leslie repeated her call for a form of corporate tax throughout the debate and advocated for getting rid of the modified business tax and lowering the sales tax. She added the state’s mining industry is not paying its fair share.

“Even Sarah Palin in Alaska knew better, she taxed oil,” Leslie said. “We need to tax the natural resources we have, and that’s mining.”

Brower said the state’s mining industry is paying its fair share and that any corporate tax could be bad for job creation. He agreed there should be tax reform that should be bipartisan.

“The last thing we need to do as a state is do anything that would jeopardize job creation and investment,” Brower said.

He noted Leslie voted for the modified business tax in 2003. Leslie, in turn, said she voted for the 2003 tax because it was a bipartisan solution at the time of a major financial crisis for the state.

Notice something strange here? I do. First, Greg Brower slammed the idea of progressive tax reform. Then, he said any tax reform should be done in a bipartisan manner. Yet from there, he criticized Sheila Leslie for voting for the bipartisan 2003 tax deal that was crafted by a group of REPUBLICAN legislators as an alternative to REPUBLICAN Governor Kenny Guinn's original tax plan! Wait, how does this even make sense? How can Greg Brower claim he wants "bipartisan solutions" on tax reform, claim he wants "balance" in the Legislature, then castigate Sheila Leslie for agreeing to compromise with the Republicans who had to compromise with each other (!!!) in order to reach a deal on taxes and the state budget?

This is a big reminder for voters in Reno's SD 15 that they indeed have an extremely important choice to make. Even though this may be Bill Raggio's old seat, Greg Brower isn't actually playing by Raggio's playbook of consensus building. Rather, he's pretty much doing what Michael Roberson tells him to do... Which is more or less a slightly modified version of the typical G-O-TEA agenda of attacking workers' rights, privatizing everything in sight, and pumping out more bailouts for billionaires (while sticking working class taxpayers with the bill).

This is why Roberson and his G-O-TEA buddies have spent so much on Brower's behalf. And this is why they fear a Leslie victory here. This is something voters in SD 15 should keep in mind. The decision they make may truly have a strong and lasting impact on our state.

The Most Important Race You Don't Hear About

So far this year, there's been plenty of buzz about all the big federal level races here in Nevada. We often see the Presidential candidates here, and we're seeing plenty of action in our Congressional races. However, there's another level of races that will be very consequential to Nevada's future.

So today's Las Vegas Sun has a story about what may be the most important Legislature race this year, the race that may very well determine the balance of power in Carson City next year. Oh yes, and that race is actually in Reno.

The most intriguing political contest that hasn’t been splashed on television screens statewide might be a legislative Senate race here in the old part of Reno — Senate District 15, a swing district inside a swing county inside a swing state.

It’s one of five competitive state Senate races that will determine which party controls the state’s upper house in 2013.

But this race has the added drama of pitting two veterans of Nevada’s political class with very different views on the role of government against each other: Sen. Greg Brower, the Republican incumbent, and former Sen. Sheila Leslie, the Democrat who resigned her safe seat in February to move into a house she had bought in the district.

And so far, there's been plenty of drama here. With the stakes so high, the contrasts are being made crystal clear.

She said Brower’s vote against extending existing taxes in 2011 was pandering to the “tea party” element of the Republican Party. At the time of the vote, Brower was in the middle of a contested Republican primary for the congressional seat that covers most of Northern Nevada. He lost that race.

“It’s offensive that someone would change their values and votes for personal political gain,” Leslie said. “Now that he’s in this campaign, he’s portraying himself as a moderate. But he might vote with the tea party again.”

Brower is striking a decidedly more moderate tone on taxes this year. He said he would vote in 2013 to extend the same taxes he opposed last year to prevent further cuts to education. He would also consider more taxes, but said, “It’s premature to go beyond that at this point.”

Indeed, Greg Brower has been changing his tune since he lost his race for Congress last year (which was the NV-02 special election). He tried the "tea party" route last year and lost in the G-O-TEA primary. So now that he's running for State Senate in a swing district and probably preparing to run for Attorney General in 2014, he's trying the "moderate" route. The problem for Brower is that he's playing this great "moderate" game now, he simply can't reconcile that with his "tea party" approved record.

Since Brower has already been flip-flopping on the budget, tax fairness, and education funding, can SD 15 voters really believe what he's saying he will do next year? After all, Brian Sandoval's preferred budget already may be falling apart. And since Greg Brower has been using Governor Sandoval and his preferred budget for political cover, what will he do once that's gone and the "tea party" jumps back in to fill the leadership void on the right?

This may seem like just one local State Legislature race in Northern Nevada, but there's so much more at stake here. The future of Nevada's tax code, Nevada's public schools, and really the entire Nevada economy may rest on the outcome of this local State Legislature race in Reno. Just keep that in mind.

#NVLeg & The Taxing Conversation

I guess The R-J tried to redeem itself today (after posting its FAIL-o-rific Legislature "election analysis" on Monday) by posting this much more thoughtful and insightful piece on SD 11. Aaron Ford ran as the Democratic nominee in SD 12 (against Doc Hardy) in 2010, but this time he's in much safer waters in the race to replace Mike Schneider in the new SD 11 that runs from Spring Valley to Southwest Vegas. He's the Senate Democratic Caucus pick, so one would think he'd have a much easier ride this time...

But alas, this time he has trouble in the Democratic Primary. Harry Mortenson may be 81 years old, but that isn't stopping him from dreaming big, thinking aloud, and running for the Senate seat that covers much of the turf he represented in the Assembly for 14 years. But funny enough, the biggest wedge between Mortenson and Ford (who, by the way, is 39) probably won't be age. Instead, it looks to be taxes. Yes, you heard me right. Ford seems to be willing to wait and see how Brian Sandoval's tax extension plan works out in the next year, while Mortenson believes we just need to implement a corporate income tax already so we can have more fairness and reliable income streams in our budget.

But wait, there's more.

On Monday, Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) ran into huge trouble when Jon Ralston called him to the mat for his flip-flop on the sunset taxes (that Brian Sandoval now wants to extend indefinitely) on "Face to Face".



This morning, Ralston ripped him a new one on his inconsistent and insincere "change of heart".

First, Brower told me Sandoval wanted to “take advantage of the revenue sunset taxes would bring, and I support him in that.” Solidly, it seemed.

But just a few moments later, his feet of clay on the issue became evident when pressed: “This is just at the planning phase. We haven’t voted on anything yet. Nothing is final.” And then the coup de lack of grace: “This takes the issue off the table in terms of politics.”

Governor, about those troops behind you: Ever heard of friendly fire?

Brower’s rhetorical peregrinations then took him to reaffirm his support for the governor and promise not to cut education. But he also said this is just “for planning purposes,” and when asked about committing to extend the taxes, replied, “No one has committed to that. What we’ve supported is the governor’s idea to plan to have the revenues.”

Really?

The governor’s office’s reaction was unequivocal: “In order to avoid cuts to education and other essential services, revenues from the sunset taxes will need to be continued.” Sandoval seems ... committed.

During the interview, Brower told me about the clear contrast he will have with Leslie. But if they both support extending taxes and both oppose education cuts, where’s the big difference? And while we know where Leslie will vote on almost any tax increase, how do we know which Greg Brower will cast a vote?

Good point, Mr. Ralston. Good point.

And this is what we've been talking about all along. Is Brian Sandoval's newfound embrace of the sunset taxes just a political stunt meant to blunt Democratic candidates' talking points on education funding and outside grassroots campaigns for tax initiatives on the ballot? And even if Sandoval is sincere about providing a more robust and reliable stream of public education funding, will Chuck Muth, NPRI, and their army of "tea party" culture warriors ever really allow for enough moderation in the Republican Caucus to allow for a grown-up conversation on taxes and responsible budgeting?

Greg Brower managed on Monday to expose several "dirty little secrets" that Sandoval's inner circle would rather bot discuss. And unfortunately for them, Ralston is taking pleasure in raising a stink about it.

But oddly enough, this and Mortenson's candor are renewing my hope. Why? Let me explain.

Governor Sandoval and his PR team had expected to destroy all honest debate on tax reform with their "surprise sunrise of the sunset taxes". But if Republican candidates like Brower suggest they're not really meaning what Pete Ernaut wants them to say, and if Democratic candidates like Harry Mortenson and Pat Spearman keep raising hell on the left over real tax reform, and if tax initiative backers refuse to stand down on their efforts to pull some "ballot box budgeting" that goes against Carson City conventional wisdom, then can Brian Sandoval keep acting like there's nothing for us to see or discuss?

Maybe it was premature to declare tax reform "dead" after all. Greg Brower's constant flip-flopping should serve as a reminder to Team Sandoval that "Tea Party, Inc." won't go down on "Sunrise to Sunsets" without a fight. And Brower's flip-flopping should serve as a reminder to us that we won't ever realize a stable budget and sound governance until we have an honest conversation on bringing Nevada's tax code into the 21st century once and for all. Brian Sandoval may be trying to bring back the era of "bipartisan" budgetary gimmicks, but perhaps those on the left, right, and center can still ultimately conspire to declare that era of Nevada history over.

Greg Brower Flips... & Flops.

On "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Weathervane) tried his hand at attacking Sheila Leslie for moving into the new SD 15... But he only made himself look foolish. Why? Here's a hint.

Brower was appointed to the Senate seat to replace the late Sen. Bill Raggio, R-Reno, who resigned before the start of the 2011 session. Brower refused to speculate on his political future beyond 2012 when asked if he was considering a run for Nevada attorney general. Democrat Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto will be termed out of office in 2014.

“I am 100 percent focused on getting elected to this Senate seat,” he said.

When asked by host Sam Shad if he would commit to a full four-year term in the Senate, Brower said: “I can’t predict the future, Sam, I just don’t know what is going to happen. I’m just not even going to think beyond 2012.”

So Greg Brower is attacking Sheila Leslie for doing the proper paperwork to run in the district that she now lives in, but Brower himself won't commit to staying on the job and serving his local constituents! And remember, this isn't the first time Brower abandoned his constituents and the job he's supposed to be doing for them. As soon as Brian Sandoval appointed Dean Heller to the US Senate seat that John Ensign abandoned, Greg Brower was quick to announce his Congressional campaign... And abandon his duties as a State Senator representing Washoe County.

It might be understandable if Greg Brower is suffering from short-timer’s syndrome. He’s running to represent Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District and the Reno Republican’s state Senate seat will likely move to Clark County after redistricting.

Still, Brower’s symptoms have become so pronounced that his party’s legislative leaders recently sat him down for a talking-to about his notable absences from committee hearings and floor debates.

Brower has been present at roll call for nearly every floor session and committee meeting. He’s missed no floor votes. However, he’s developed a routine of taking extended breaks after being marked present or leaving early while his colleagues on the Education or Health and Human Services committees work late into the evening.

The practice has irritated some of his colleagues, Republican and Democrats. [...]

Brower missed large sections of the public schools hearing on April 20. Two days later, when he was absent from the higher education hearing before the Senate, Horsford, sent the sergeant-at-arms to fetch Brower from his office.

Four days later, Brower officially announced his congressional campaign.

When asked whether he has left committee or floor meetings to attend to campaign business, Brower dodged the question..

“My focus is on the session and representing my constituents,” he said. “That’s what I am here for.”

(This Sun article was written before the Nevada Supreme Court approved a new Legislature map that actually moved Brower and Leslie into the new SD 15 in western Washoe County.)

So when the NV-02 seat was wide open, Brower was quick to jump on that opportunity to run for Congress. But when that didn't work out, the game plan shifted to running for State Senate this year, only for Brower to set himself up for a run for Attorney General in 2014. Yet even as Brower's initial expectation of a smooth sail to election didn't quite pan out that way, he still won't commit to actually serving the full term!

And Greg Brower thinks he can legitimately attack Sheila Leslie for simply filing in the district she now lives in? Who's he kidding?

But wait, there's more. He also had the gall to say this on "Nevada Newsmakers" yesterday.

Brower also defended Sandoval for his announcement last week that he would continue a package of expiring tax increases into the 2013-15 budget to avoid any further budget cuts to education. Brower voted against continuing the 2009 taxes in the 2011 session even though Sandoval supported the decision as a compromise to finalize the current budget.

“I think what the governor is trying to do is move this state forward,” he said. “And that means leadership on real issues like the budget. And I think that’s what we saw last week and that’s what we’re going to continue to see. And to the extent this governor is going to take a leadership role in moving this state forward, I stand solidly behind him.”

Again, who's he kidding? Greg Brower voted AGAINST the final budget agreement that Brian Sandoval signed into law! But of course, that vote happened just as Brower was kicking his Congressional campaign into high gear. Shortly after sine die, Brower appeared at this NV-02 G-O-TEA candidate forum and professed his love for all things "tea party".

There was little disagreement voiced among the three, who Las Vegas Sun political reporter Jon Ralston has dubbed “the leading candidates.”

All said they were supportive of Ryan’s budget plan, and that they would have voted for the Pence Amendment to defund Planned Parenthood. Education, they all agreed, should be dealt with on a local level, and the role of the Department of Education should be highly diminished, or the Department should be gotten rid of all together. On energy, all called for more domestic sources of energy, whether it be green energy, offshore drilling, or nuclear energy.

Amodei disputed the use of the phrase “green energy” saying that term “is another way of saying politically correct energy.”

Asked about their feelings on the Tea Party movement, Lippold and Brower expressed hearty approval.

“Any time you have citizens getting involved directly in how their government is run, it is a good thing for the United States,” said Lippold.

“I couldn’t agree more,” said Brower. “Any movement that makes government more accountable is a movement I can get behind.” [Emphasis mine.]

Oh yes, Greg Brower loved him some "tea party" when he wanted teabaggers' votes in the NV-02 special election. But apparently now that he's simultaneously "pivoting himself to the center" in a more evenly split and increasingly Democratic leaning State Senate district and "angling" himself for a future statewide run, Brower is abandoning the "po' lil' teabaggers" and embracing Brian Sandoval's and Michael Roberson's newfound love of extending taxes and funding public education.

Hmmm... Who could have guessed this?

(Jump to 13:30 on the video below. Keep going to 9:50 for all the good stuff.)



At least give Sheila Leslie credit for refusing to morph on TV into something she's really not. She's always been consistent in stating what she believes in and who she wants to work for, and that doesn't look to be changing any time soon.

Greg Brower, on the other hand, is now trying to look "moderate" after spending the last year pandering to "tea party" extremists, voting against badly needed school funding that Brian Sandoval now admits we can't afford to take away next year, and even voting against basic civil rights, such as ensuring fair employment and creating a safe learning environment. Hell, Brower even voted against critical infrastructure improvement projects that invested in our state and put more Nevadans to work. Greg Brower may now want to talk a good "moderate" game, but his actual votes in the Legislature last year tell a totally different and rather "TEA" tinged story.

So perhaps before Greg Brower tries again to attack Sheila Leslie for moving into the district she now lives in, he should take a look at his own record and try to give SD 15 voters an honest answer as to who he really serves.

Who's Running Where (Part I)

(In honor of candidate filing for partisan seats beginning this week, I'll be doing a series on "who's running where" as we keep up with the expanding list of candidates for federal, state, and county level offices this year.)

This may not seem appropriate, but it's nonetheless happening. On the same day as Bill Raggio's funeral, filing began for the race to determine the State Senate seat that Raggio once held for nearly 40 years... Along with a host of other races across the state.

Apparently, Republicans swapped candidates in SD 9 as former Joe Heck, Dean Heller, and Nevada GOP spokesperson Mari Nakashima St. Martin filed for that seat today. Also today, Justin Jones filed on the Democratic side for SD 9. He's a partner in the Holland & Hart law firm, he's been recognized as one of the top lawyers in the region, and he's a long time Southwest Vegas resident. That should be interesting.

But anyway, back to Reno...



The SD 15 race promises to be a real barnburner. And at this point, I can see no better example (other than perhaps SD 9 down here in the south?) of the competing visions of Nevada's future, as well as the competing plans to get there.

And so far, both the SD 9 race and the SD 15 race offer us a glimpse of what's at stake in the big picture. Up north, we have two seasoned legislators running against each other in a quintessential swing district (15) that was once represented by Nevada's longest serving State Senator. He was known for wheeling and dealing, but the people now running for the seat come from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum.

And down south, we're seeing two up and coming stars compete for a district (9) that was once the epicenter of Las Vegas' real estate bubble. So perhaps this was the ideal location for the rise of "The Accidental Senator". But now that Elizabeth Halseth is long gone (and out of state), Republicans seem to be settling on Joe Heck's former spokesperson as their standard bearer while Democrats are fielding a real legal "top gun" to flip this red seat blue.

It really does seem like our Legislature is going through plenty of transition. As we'll be seeing this week, plenty of new faces will be appearing at the Secretary of State's office while more familiar ones are jumping up to the federal level, or are just bowing out of electoral politics for good. Gone may be the "Old Nevada" days of long time politicians cutting deals and reaching consensus. Now we'll have to see if we get a new Legislature soon that looks more like the new Nevada.

Why "Down Ballot" Should Be at the Top of Voters' Minds

Buried at the bottom of today's RGJ story on the high stakes SD 15 race between incumbent State Senators Greg Brower (R-Reno) and Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) now running in the same district that may determine control of the State Senate next year, I found this shiny nugget that may really change the dynamic of Legislature campaigns.

Leslie feels Brower hurt students and parents involved in public education by voting against the final budget deal of the 2011 session because it contained about $700 million in taxes that were scheduled to expire but were renewed with the budget deal.

“In the last session, after Sen. Brower was appointed to his position, he had a record that was very extreme,” Leslie said. “The constituents in this district are very unhappy with that, especially with education.”

Leslie said Brower will also have to answer for being among a handful of senators who voted against the final state budget deal endorsed by Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval, because it contained revenue from a group of taxes that were scheduled to expire in 2011.

So why is this so important? And why is this a game changer? Let me explain. For once, taxes may finally be touched on as a legitimate policy issue worth discussing intelligently, not another forbidden "four letter word" (never mind it actually has five letters!).

Now of course, this situation is different. At the end of the 76th session, we only saw an agreement to extend the tax deal already put in place in 2009. And it's probably less scary for Democrats to embrace this as a campaign issue now that Brian Sandoval has to own it.

Still, this reflects what may be a big change in campaign strategy. Instead of trying to avoid the subject, as so many candidates did in 2010, we may see a real head-on collision.

And frankly, we may need it. As I hinted at last week, several states are considering legalizing some form of internet gambling. We can't always depend on the gaming industry as our only stable source of income. We also can't continue to underfund the critical public infrastructure that we need to attract more businesses here and diversify our economy. Something's got to give.

And perhaps, something will this year. Even the RAN poll done by Republican polling outfit Public Opinion Strategies found a willingness among Nevada voters to talk taxes. So it's likely that the other private polls in the field are showing similar results. And when considering that and the proposed ballot initiatives already making a mark on the tax talk, this may be the ideal time for Legislature candidates to actually talk about what happens in Carson City and why they want to go there.

And remember this. Even if one or more of the tax initiatives pass, there will still be important fiscal decisions made in the Legislature next year. And considering everything from mining taxes to funding public education are likely to be big issues looming over Carson City next year, this election may really be the most important Nevada has faced in a long time.

#NVLeg: Halseth's Gone & Leslie's Moved On... What's Next?

I'm quite sure I know what you're thinking. Now that Elizabeth Halseth is out, what happens next in Senate District 9 in Southern Nevada? Let me do my best to explain what's to come.

First, we have filing. And from what I've heard, it's too late for anyone currently living outside the new district boundaries to move in and campaign here. SD 9 has now been compacted to just the Southwest Vegas suburbs of Summerlin South (south of Red Rock Country Club), the western edge of Spring Valley, and the Enterprise communities of Mountain's Edge, Rhodes Ranch, and Southern Highlands. Sorry, aspiring carpetbaggers.

And so far, everything I heard Friday afternoon still stands. The new district boundaries will indeed be used in the special election, and the SD 9 special election will follow the same schedule as the other regularly scheduled Legislature elections. This means filing will be open until March 16, then the primary will occur on June 12. And of course, this also means SD 9 will ultimately be decided in the general election on November 6.

And so far, the same schedule looks to be in place for the Senate District 13 special election in Northern Nevada triggered by Sheila Leslie's big move to Senate District 15. The new SD 13 (formerly Washoe Senate 1) contains mostly the urban core of Reno and Sparks, while the new SD 15 (formerly Washoe Senate 3) takes in a large portion of Western Washoe County from White Lake to Sun Valley to Northwest Reno to Mount Rose.

Now that Sheila Leslie will be running in SD 15, Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) announced yesterday that she will run to fill the vacancy in SD 13.

“Northern Nevadans need strong representatives they can count on to get the job done,” Smith said in a statement. “While I believe there are some very promising signs that things are beginning to get better in our state, we have a long way to go. I am running for the state Senate to continue fighting for a better education system, a healthier economy, and a more efficient and effective government for Nevada. After spending the past few days talking with family, friends and community members, I feel this is the right decision at the right time.”

Leslie resigned her Senate Distrct 1 seat effective immediately Wednesday and plans to run against state Sen. Greg Brower, R-Reno, in Senate District 15.

District 1, which encompasses portions of Reno and Sparks, becomes District 13 in this election cycle after redistricting. The district has a solid Democratic edge in registered voters, about 18 percent. Leslie won election by 30 points in 2010, and former state Sen. Bernice Mathews, D-Reno, held the seat for 16 years before term limits ended her legislative career.

Now as the RGJ article quoted above states, not too much is really at stake in SD 13. It's still a heavily Democratic district. And as long as no other strong Democrat emerges to challenge Debbie Smith in the primary, then expect to see Senator Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) making waves in the next legislative session (next year).

No, the real battle will be farther west in SD 15. And down south, SD 9 will join SD 5 (Henderson-Green Valley), SD 6 (Las Vegas-Summerlin), and SD 18 (Northwest Las Vegas) in determining control of the Nevada State Senate. If Republicans win at least 4 of these 5 seats, then they take over the Senate. But if Democrats manage to sweep all 5 of these races, then Nevada Dems will finally reach the magic 2/3 number to secure a veto-proof supermajority and relegate Michael Roberson (and his extreme "tea party" agenda) to the sidelines.

This is why Roberson is so scared now. And this is why the "big bid'ness" establishment will be forking out big checks to the likes of Greg Brower and Steve Kirk (a GOP candidate in SD 5). Again, as we've been saying here for a while (and Jon Ralston has admitted on Twitter), Republican hopes of flipping the Senate have diminished greatly in the last 100 hours. However, they still intend to go all in for the #NVLeg campaign just for the sake of saving enough seats to obstruct any kind of progressive agenda in the 77th session.

So perhaps more so than ever before, the Legislature campaigns of 2012 will really matter. If one wants to fix the broken and outdated tax structure straight out of the 19th century, fully fund public education, improve our state's health care system, rebuild the rest of our state's public infrastructure, and properly invest in the kind of job creation that will benefit our economy for many generations to come, the choice will be crystal clear. And thanks to both redistricting last year and the major developments of the past week, we may actually have a unique and unprecedented opportunity to change the dynamics of Carson City for the better. So remember not to "stop at the top"... Keep going down that ballot and vote for progress.

Where in the World Is Elizabeth Halseth?

Uh oh. Yesterday, Nevada Republicans were panicking over Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) opting to run against Greg Brower (R-Reno) in the new SD 13 in the western Reno suburbs. Today, they're trying to deal with one of their own gone AWOL.

Assemblywoman Marilyn Kirkpatrick, D-North Las Vegas, said she was struggling to schedule an interim committee meeting on how taxes are distributed among local governments because [Senator Elizabeth] Halseth [R-Enterprise], who was appointed by her caucus to sit on the committee, has not returned calls.

“We’ve had a hard time reaching Ms. Halseth to determine her role,” Kirkpatrick said. “The last thing I’d want is for a Senate Republican not to be represented on the committee.”

While the tax distribution issue — the consolidated tax — is important in the world of local government finances, Halseth’s absence raises a larger question that could have big political ramifications: Will she return to the Legislature in 2013?

If Halseth moves out of her district or resigns ahead of the June 12 primary, it would put her seat on the ballot. Because of redistricting, her seat has a significant Democratic voter registration edge.

If she stays, however, Halseth is in the middle of a four-year term and her seat would not be open until 2014. She was elected in 2010 and became the youngest elected state senator.

And that's what scares Republicans the most. Because Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a significant margin in the new SD 9, and because the district probably voted around 58% Obama 2008 and 53% Reid 2010, this district will be incredibly difficult for Republicans to hold if put to election again this year. So right now, it looks like Republican Caucus Leader Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) will be trying to delay Halseth's removal from the Senate just long enough so that it doesn't go to special election. As long as Halseth resigns after the 2012 filing deadline, Clark County Commissioners may be forced to appoint a Republican replacement for Halseth that lasts until the 2014 election.

But wait, how can he do this?

Well, the main problem here is that Halseth herself won't tell us where she's now living. Apparently she may technically be maintaining a Las Vegas address, but I've heard from multiple sources that Halseth is actually living in Alaska with her new boyfriend. But since her cell phone has been disconnected, her Twitter page and web site are down, and she hasn't responded to any media inquiries, no one knows for sure where she really is and what she's really doing. And as long as Roberson can keep everyone in the dark past March 16, he can be able to hold off a special election this year...

Or can he?

According to state law, if at least 25% of registered voters who voted in the last election (when the office was on the ballot) sign a recall petition, a recall election can happen. So may we see an election anyway, even if Michael Roberson keeps trying to run out the clock?

As we were discussing yesterday, the whole conversation on Legislature elections has changed dramatically in the last 36 hours. Greg Brower now has a real race on his hands up north, while Republicans now worry about a very vulnerable seat opening down south. And if Democrats can find the answer to the question on everyone's mind right now (as well as the title of this blog diary), this seat will indeed open up... And dash Republican hopes of retaking the State Senate.

Game Change? (#NVLeg Edition)

Until today, many pundits were questioning how Democrats could hold onto a very narrow one seat majority in the State Senate. Now, they're seeing the answers.

First off, State Senator Sheila Leslie (D-Reno) is resigning her old seat (Washoe 1 before redistricting) to run for the new SD 15.

Leslie’s decision to resign from Northern Nevada’s safest Democratic seat in order to run in a district where voter registration is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans will likely shift matchups in several legislative races.

“I’m probably the first person to give up a safe seat to run for a split one,” Leslie said. “This will be one of those rare things in Nevada politics: a truly competitive race.”

Leslie bought her new house in a nearby neighborhood but didn’t decide to move until redistricting was completed. The new house ended up in Senate District 15 under the maps drawn by the court.

Last week, after failing to recruit another Democrat to run against Brower, Leslie decided to move into her new house.

“After much thought, I have decided to move to the new Senate District 15,” she said in a written statement. “I believe my resignation is required, as I cannot live in two Senate districts at the same time. While this decision was difficult, I intend to be a candidate in my new neighborhood and hope to return to the state Senate later this year.”

As Anjeanette Damon noted in the Sun article, it's a bit of a risky move. However, it's also a move that can really pay off. It may also ultimately be the smart move.

After all, Damon noted the district voted 57% Obama in 2008 and 54% Reid in 2010. That's actually higher than my estimate from last fall! As I've said all along, the new SD 15 is a swing district that Democrats can definitely win. I'm just glad to see that Sheila Leslie and the Senate Democratic Caucus realize this.

And this has Greg Brower and Michael Roberson running scared. After all, this will be the first time Brower faces the voters since he turned so far to the right in last year's legislative session... Which turned out to be an audition for the NV-02 gig he couldn't get. He's in deep trouble now.

And in case that wasn't bad enough for Roberson and the Senate Republicans, Ralston tweeted earlier today that they're also facing problems over how to handle State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Enterprise) and her sudden departure from Nevada. Her husband filed for divorce last November after she called the cops on him. She first claimed he tried to force himself on her, but now folks have been wondering if she just fled with her new boyfriend out of state. Whatever the case, Halseth no longer looks to be in office... And Senate Republicans are trying to figure out how to avoid a special election in this district. Since my last estimate had the new SD 9 at 58% Obama 2008 and 53% Reid 2010, and since the new SD 9 is now a district with a Democratic registration advantage, Republicans may very well lose this district in an election this year.

Until today, all the pundits were talking about was that Democrats had two swing districts (5 in Green Valley-Henderson, 6 in Las Vegas-Summerlin) to defend. And yes, that doesn't change. However, what does change is that Republicans may also end up with two districts (15 in Western Reno, 9 in Southwest Vegas) of their own to defend. And while 5 & 6 lean more Democratic after redistricting, so do 9 & 15. That's what has Nevada Republicans panicking.

You know, it's amazing to watch tables turn. And after watching all of Michael Roberson's pompous blustering over this election, it's especially funny to watch the Nevada G-O-TEA clusterfuck arrive at his doorstep.

Yet Another Redistricting Scenario!

Since it's looking increasingly likely Nevada redistricting will end up in court, I wanted to look again at how The Nevada Supreme Court will end up redrawing Nevada's Congressional Map. I also wanted to provide an update on what I'm hearing on the ground on who will be running where.

Here's the dilemma: The horribly nasty state budget stalemate has pretty much infected everything in Carson City, including the usually congenial redistricting process. And even though it's increasingly likely The Legislature will finally compromise on a budget/tax deal, at the same time the clock is quickly running out and there may not be any time left for a compromise on redistricting.

So what are you waiting for? Let's get to the map!





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 675,282
69.3% White (73.7% VAP)

The State of Play

Wow! We've seen plenty of change here! Sharron Angle looks to be out, Kate Marshall is now officially in, and the entire September special election is totally up in the air!

But regardless of what happens with that special election this year, the court has to redraw the district for next year. I think there's a good chance the judges will direct their aides to keep all of Washoe County (Reno area) intact, then connect it to Carson City, Douglas County, Storey County, Lyon County, and the Fallon area of Churchill County. This essentially makes the greater Reno-Carson metro area, so it would meet the bar for communities of interest. The seat also includes the northern rural counties of Pershing, Lander, Eureka, and Elko.

While this district has been historically (VERY!) Republican, the changing demographics of Washoe County are leading to much changed politics of this area. In addition, the changing dynamics of the Nevada Republican Party will also shake up the balance of power here. While a moderate Republican is likely favored here in any election, Republican primary voters have been demanding more ideological purity as of late, and may very well nominate teabaggers doomed to lose in general elections.

Who's All In?

As I hinted at above, Kate Marshall is now running for Congress. And if she happens to win in September, I figure the state Democratic Party will ensure next year's primary is cleared for her. And since Marshall lives in Reno, there's virtually no chance of her being redistricted out of NV-02.

Now on the other hand, things have been far more turbulent on the Republican side up here. Sharron Angle is definitely out of the special election, and now political observers are wondering if maybe, just maybe, she'll also stay out of next year's election. If so, then Kirk Lippold's political life will get that much easier. He received a huge boost earlier this month when former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV GOP Old Guard) endorsed him. And now with Angle out of the race, he will have an easier time consolidating the teabagger vote.

At the same time, State Senator Greg Brower (R-Reno) and former Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei will have a tough fight ahead. They're trying to balance throwing some bones to the extreme right to appease the teabaggers while looking sane enough to hold enough moderates to win a general election. Good luck with that! Perhaps Brower or Amodei can pull that off in the general, but first there's the primary. And in the event either Kate Marshall or Kirk Lippold wins the special election this year, will they try again next year?

The Wild Cards

At this point, it's all on the teabaggers. Will they unite behind Lippold? Can they tolerate Amodei or Brower? Will they allow for another Sharron Angle comeback? Only time will tell.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 34%

Current Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if special election produces big surprise





NV-04 (The Red District)

Population: 675,251
61.5% White (65.0% VAP)

The State of Play

We've all been waiting for where Nevada's shiny new Congressional District lands. But now that The Nevada Supreme Court has final say, it's looking like the new seat will land on a wide stretch of land going from rural Churchill County to expansive Nye and Lincoln Counties to the sprawling western Clark County (Greater Las Vegas) suburbs and exurbs. This new district forces a "shotgun wedding" of the Deep Republican Central Nevada rural areas with the more Democratic leaning Spring Valley neighborhoods and swingy Summerlin and Northwest neighborhoods of Clark County. It may not be the prettiest district, but it's probably the court's best option to unite communities of interest in the western (Las Vegas) valley while meeting population requirements.

Oh, and since the district pretty much splits right down the middle, NV-04 isn't a "slam dunk" for either Democrats or Republicans.

Who's All In?

This really changes everything. On the Republican side, the new lines may very well encourage State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) to run, as she's been yearning lately for a promotion to DC. Now she finally has a district to make her dreams come true. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Southwest Vegas) may also be encouraged by local teabaggers to run, even though her house may be outside this district.

But unless Republicans can agree on a more moderate candidate who can carry the Clark County portion of NV-04, they may be in trouble. Many of these parts of Vegas have been growing more diverse and trending more Democratic as of late, so Democrats may actually be favored next year if President Obama remains popular, a moderate Summerlin area Democrat can win the nomination, and the Republicans get too teabaggy for voters here. Paging Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown (D-Northwest Vegas)?

The Wild Cards

You mean NV-04 isn't wild enough for you?! ;-)

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.6%
McCain (R) 46.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 48%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 40%

Current Race Rating: Tossup



NV-01 (The Blue District)

Population: 675,148
29.0% White (34.5% VAP), 14.7% African-American (14.8% VAP), 47.0% Latino (41.1% VAP)

The State of Play

Here's where things get even wilder! One of the brightest and hottest flash points of the redistricting battle in Nevada has been over minority representation, and in particular what to do with Nevada's Latinos. Republicans have claimed the Voting Rights Act (VRA) demands a Latino majority seat, while Democrats have claimed Latinos should have enough sway in multiple districts to maximize opportunity. At this point, I suspect the court will throw out both parties' maps and split the middle on the reasoning. This probably means we will see NV-01 become a VRA coalition seat based in North Las Vegas and the older, more diverse neighborhoods of Las Vegas (city, mainly Downtown, East Las Vegas, and West Las Vegas) with a fairly strong (38-43%) Latino voting aged population (VAP) plurality.

Who's All In?

So if this is what the court settles upon, then this changes everything on who will win NV-01 next year. State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) has been considered the early frontrunner here, but this district creates major geographic and demographic challenges for him. In addition, as The Legislature closes its 76th session with a total meltdown over the state budget and the progressive Democratic base is becoming increasingly frustrated with party leadership over the lack of progress on implementing progressive tax reform and securing more public education funding, Horsford may pay the ultimate price for this.

All this time, it's been rumored that freshman State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas), a rapidly rising Latino star in Carson City, has been waiting in the wings. This may be his perfect opportunity, as Steven Horsford's political woes surface and Nevada's Latinos are looking for new and exciting leaders.

The Wild Cards

I've occasionally heard that North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck (R) may want a big promotion some time soon, but I suspect she realizes what she has to do to win a Republican primary here probably won't help her win over the voters she needs to succeed in this very heavily Democratic minority-majority district.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 69.1%
McCain (R) 28.8%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 65%
Sharron Angle (R) 30%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 58%
Brian Sandoval (R) 37%

Current Race Rating: Safe Democratic



NV-03: The Purple District

Population: 674,870
56.7% White (60.6% VAP)

The State of Play

For the last decade, NV-03 has been the "fair fight district" that Republicans thought they could keep a firm grasp upon, until they struggled to save Jon Porter in 2006, only to see him go down in flames in 2008. Joe Heck then turned the district Red again in 2010, but only barely (winning by fewer than 2,000 votes and earning only 48%). Republican legislators had been hoping they could reach a deal with Democrats to give Heck a friendlier NV-03 in 2012. And while there's a faint chance of some last minute deal that allows for a budget that continues the 2009 taxes while throwing the GOP this bone, it's looking increasingly unlikely. Instead, it seems like The Nevada Supreme Court will ultimately draw out Joe Heck's fate.

And if the court really looks at communities of interest, then Heck will be in for quite the rough rise. This NV-03 is drawn to reunite almost the entire East Side, which is heavily Democratic, then swing south to swingy Henderson, take in the increasingly Democratic leaning Southwest valley suburbs (west of I-15, south of 215), take in heavily Republican Boulder City, then stretch all the way out to the California border at Primm and Arizona border at Laughlin. The end result is a NV-03 that is slightly more Democratic than its current incarnation, and that may spell real trouble for teabagger darling Heck.

Who's All In?

So what will Joe Heck do? It seems like he's been operating on the assumption he will get at least a slightly redder district, but now he's at the mercy of judges who are supposed to put aside partisan politics. Will Republicans finally lose this district for good?

Enter Dina Titus. She has been itching for a(nother) political comeback since she lost to Heck in a painfully close election. Even though she was probably planning on running in a safer seat, this is now her best opportunity to return to Congress. This district reunites her long time East Side base, includes all the Henderson areas she's known to do well in, and drops the Summerlin and Northwest suburbs that caused her the most problems in 2008 and 2010. This may very well be the best Dina can hope for considering the court now redraws the lines.

The Wild Cards

Early this year, State Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) sounded like a possible Congressional candidate. And perhaps he will still feel the itch to run. But at this point, he has a much tougher hill to climb. Now that The Legislature is in so much chaos in its final days, he will have a harder time convincing Democratic primary voters he's their champion fighter.

At the same time, Joe Heck may have yet another headache if he tries to shift back to the center in a last attempt to save his political career. So far he's had an easy relationship with teabaggers because he gives them the vast majority of what they want. However, what they want is NOT what we needs to do to win an otherwise Democratic leaning district. If Heck pulls back on issues like Paul Ryan's Medicare dismantling, he will probably risk losing the GOP primary. Will teabaggers ask Elizabeth Halseth to run here? Or will they turn to one of their statewide 2010 also rans?

Funny enough, it's increasingly looking like Dina Titus will have an easier primary than most expected early this year. With Rory Reid definitely out, John Oceguera possibly staying out, and Joe Heck at greater risk of getting booted out, Dina may have the last laugh after all.

Recent Election Results

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55.7%
McCain (R) 42.2%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 45%

Current Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So there you have it. This is another glimpse at what the final results of a court drawn Nevada map may look like.

I know this may scare some folks here who were hoping for two or three safe Democratic seats, but remember this. Nevada's demographics gave shifted rapidly in the last two decades, resulting in a huge political realignment that led to President Obama's stunning 12.5% win in 2008 and Harry Reid's shocking 5.6% win in 2010. While there have been plenty of ups and downs in the last three election cycles, Democrats overall continue to be on an upswing and demographic trends look to continue helping Democrats keep a firm grasp on the intensely urban NV-01, recapture the suburban-but-diversifying NV-03, become more competitive in the transitioning NV-02, and stake a claim on the up-for-grabs NV-04. Maybe Democrats shouldn't be afraid of a court drawn map after all.

Shocker in New York... Upset in Nevada?

Last night, DC pundits were shocked by what they thought was impossible.

Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in New York’s special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY). Despite the $2.36 million spent by groups like Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to keep the district red and the $60 per vote Corwin spent herself, Hochul secured a clear victory in a traditionally Republican district [...]

Viewed as a referendum on House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare, Hochul’s victory exemplifies the American public’s overwhelming disgust with the GOP push to force seniors to bear the burden of increasing health costs. Expecting a loss, several Republicans — including Corwin herself — tried to assert the election had nothing to do with Ryan’s Medicare plan. But DCCC chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) outlined the three reasons that Corwin lost the election: “[I]n alphabetical order, Medicare, Medicare and Medicare.”

Apparently, Paul Ryan's disgusting "roadmap" to destroy the American middle class proved to be quite the political stink bomb. Even Republicans admitted early on that this special election would be a referendum on their plan to unravel the American social safety net, which starts by ending Medicare. And now, Democrats are poised to use this NY-26 election as a launch pad to retake Congress.

"We can ensure we do not decimate Medicare," Hochul said. "We will keep the promises made to our seniors who have spent their lives paying into Medicare, so they can count on health care when they need it most."

If Democrats have their way, there will be a lot more speeches along those lines come November 2012. The chairs of both legislative election committees made clear on Tuesday that they believe they have found a winning formula they intend to use elsewhere.

"The election last night showed that Democrats have the keys to drive the budget debate and play offense in 2012," Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. "The implications of this election extend to Senate races in battleground states and red states across the country. The results provide clear evidence that Democratic senators and senate candidates will be able to play offense across the country by remaining focused on the Republican effort to end Medicare and force seniors to pay thousands more for health care costs."

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said that the party had "served notice to the Republicans" that the Medicare issue could hurt them.

"Even in one of the most Republican districts, seniors and independent voters rejected the Republican plan to end Medicare," he said. "The American people will continue to hold House Republicans accountable for their plan to end Medicare from now until election day 2012."

For Rob Zerban, a Democrat running against GOP budget guru Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in 2012, the Hochul race was an instructive boost to his campaign hopes.

"I just am overwhelmed at the results from this election. It's a harbinger of things to come," he told TPM over the phone on Tuesday night. "I'm certainly going to make this a key issue in the 1st Congressional District in Wisconsin. ... Democrats are going to focus on how we can actualy shore up, strengthen, and keep Medicare solvent, and this will be a clear distinction in the 2012 cycle."

So can this be another factor that shakes up the already zany special election in Nevada's own 2nd Congressional District? The legal drama over how the election itself will be conducted ("Ballot Royale?" Or behind closed doors?) is proving to be a giant hot mess with none other than Dean Heller at the center of it. For quite some time, the focal point of the NV-02 special has been the (at times hilarious) cast of characters running. But now, is there a chance this will change and... GASP! ... the election may actually be decided on policy?

Don't laugh just yet. Notice these numbers (via DB).

Republicans falsely claim Nevada seniors will not be impacted by the GOP’s plan, but starting next year, more than 26,700 Nevada seniors will be forced to pay $15 million more in prescription drug costs [if the Ryan Budget is passed]. The Republican budget also slashes billions in health care through Medicaid, putting seniors at risk.

Specifically:

The Republican plan to end Medicare will increase out-of-pocket health care costs for a typical 65 year-old Nevada senior by $5,862 in 2022 – more than double the cost under current law.

The Republican plan could force at least 7,800 Nevada seniors to pay over $828,000 more for annual wellness visits in 2012.

In Nevada, more than 26,700 seniors would pay $15 million more for prescription drugs in 2012 alone under the Republican plan.

By turning Medicaid into a block grant program, the Republican plan could cost Nevada at least 9,600 private-sector jobs over the next five years.

In Nevada, the Republican plan could cut $1.7 billion in federal health care funding for seniors and the disabled through Medicaid, including life-saving nursing home care.”

I guess that's why Mark Amodei is already running scared and refusing to specifically endorse the Ryan Plan. However, Kirk Lippold has enthusiastically endorsed Ryan's plan. And in the not-all-that-distant past, all three Republican men have embraced it.

Amodei says he likes the "honesty" of the deep spending cuts found in the 2012 budget proposal from U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican and House Budget Committee chairman, whose plan clashes with President Barack Obama's competing proposal. Brower likes the Ryan proposal, too, and says its plan to reduce corporate taxes while keeping President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich "could spur the economic activity we so desperately need." Lippold, a retired Navy commander, says Ryan's plan is a good blueprint that "sets forth some aggressive goals."

Meanwhile, I think we already know what Sharron Angle thinks about the Ryan Plan...





I think we know what's next. But funny enough, it's not just the usual Sharrontology. In fact, all the above mentioned Republicans have in some way endorsed Ryan's plan to destroy Medicare and undermine the middle class. Even if they try to run away and distance themselves from this, they will just look as silly as Jane Corwin did in New York's 26th Congressional District.

So maybe Mr. Gleaner will get his wish come true after all? Maybe the special election in Nevada's 2nd will be decided on the issues (not just the personalities) after all?

NV-02: Brower In... And Angle, Too?

Ah, another tweet heard 'round the world (of Nevada politics). Ralston confirmed that Greg Brower is running for Congress in The 2nd District... And he's preparing for the special election this year. And of course, this means he's in for another epic battle against Sharron Angle...

Or is he?

Election law isn't exactly crystal clear here in Nevada, and at first glance it seemed like the Nevada GOP could just do away with Angle by ensuring she can't get their nomination. However, that may not actually be the case.

Some lawyers argue the law allows multiple major party candidates to file for the election, instead of putting the nominating decision to the parties' central committees. In that case, several Republicans and several Democrats could vie for the seat on the same ballot.

Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller said he will make a decision on the process after reviewing all of the applicable laws if Heller is appointed.

So their Angle problem really won't go away?

Interestingly, Angle actually carried the most Republican district in the state, in the 2010 Senate race. However, her latest campaign is already off to a rough and controversial start, such as when she said that the Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC "betrayed America" when it endorsed Reid. Dealing with Angle's baggage is probably not a job the Nevada GOP wants.

So what happens if she gets snubbed by the party? Could she launch an independent bid? Would her base stay home, rather than support the establishment candidate? And even if another GOP nominee did win, would Angle continue out on the trail in a primary challenge?

There's only one way to find out!

So Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron can't be stopped? It probably all depends on The Secretary of State's ruling... And how serious Democrats are about competing there.