Worst Kept Secret

Last week, a G-O-TEA Member of Congress told us a secret. No really, he went on live national TV and told everyone the secret. And even though this secret was never well kept to begin with, party bosses were embarrassed.

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Alabama) seemed to think he landed the perfect attack against President Obama with his "War on Whites" tirade. Instead, he revealed to all of America why Republican "leaders" abandoned comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) after 18 months of duplicitous promises and 12 months of letting a bipartisan Senate CIR bill die a rather ignominious death in some darkened corner of a House committee room.

In recent weeks, we've been digging deep into the anti-immigrant movement and how it's influencing federal immigration policy. While John Tanton, Jim Gilchrist, William Gheen, and the late Barbara Coe have never served in Congress, their presence on Capitol Hill looms large. Over the years, they've squeezed their hate into political juice. And in turn, they've twice succeeded in killing CIR in Congress (first in 2006, and again now).

Oh, and speaking of Jim Gilchrist, he made a big splash on the brand new Newsmax TV network last week. Since Newsmax TV strives to be "Fox News" on steroids, cocaine, LSD, and Ecstasy all rolled into one, Gikchrist must have figured this would be a very friendly interview. But when Newsmax's Ed Berliner asked Gilchrist about Shawna Forde, Chris Simcox, and other unsavory moments in Minuteman history, Gilchrist clammed up.



So why are we talking about Gilchrist and his magnificent militia fantasies again? And why are we talking about the criminal record of his past close associates again?

See above. Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colorado) just wrote an op-ed for WorldNetDaily (which is on par with Newsmax in the bats--t crazy department, yet incredibly "respected" on Capitol Hill) demanding "we should all stock our ammunition shelves and join a militia" if President Obama isn't impeached. Meanwhile in Fox-land, G-O-TEA media spinners have been trying to turn an ex-Marine on trial in Mexico for gun smuggling charges into the new Cliven Bundy. And Former G-O-TEA Presidential Candidate (& current CNN pundit) Newt Gingrich went on NBC's "Meet the Press" yesterday to claim "Venezuelan Style, Anything I Want Is Legal Presidency" is somehow right around the corner if President Obama takes any further executive action on immigration.



G-O-TEA Congresscritters and their favorite media pundits have been taking queues from the anti-immigrant movement for years. They blocked CIR. They're threatening legal action against the President for taking any executive action on the issue. And they've been engaging in the most toxic fearmongering imaginable.

So is it any suprise that radical right militia activity is on the rise (again)? This may very well be the worst kept secret in DC. Words have consequences, and actions have even more consequences. And it's time to completely rip the lid off this poorly kept secret.

Super Tuesday G-O-TEA Primary Liveblog

OK, I just can't help it. I have to watch another night of this train wreck. Let's see what's happening.

4:10 PM-

All we know now is that Newton has lived to campaign another day. He won Georgia... And so far, he's the only one who's officially won any Super Tuesday contest.

Stay tuned here as we get more info on what's happening tonight... And why we should care. ;-)

4:25 PM-

So far in looking at MSNBC's Georgia exit poll, I'm thinking Newton Leroy Gingrich will carry his home state with about 45%, with Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney coming in second with about 27%. It should be a big win for him...

But the other big prize tonight will soon be reporting results. I'll be back as soon as Ohio comes online.

4:30 PM-

OK. Here we go! MSNBC projects Ohio to be "Too Close to Call". Expect another long, grueling night. Meanwhile, Virginia is expected to go to Mitt Romney... But Ron Paul is outperforming the pre-election polls in early returns so far. And Fox already projected Vermont for Romney, but MSNBC still calls it "Too Early to Call". Romney is leading so far in Vermont, albeit only by single digits over Rick Santorum.

4:40 PM-

So far looking at MSNBC's Ohio exit poll, their numbers suggest something like a 39-35 Romney win over Santorum. Will Mittens finally emerge as "the clear frontrummer" and reemerge as "the inevitable one" tonight? It will probably be incredibly difficult for Santorum to keep campaigning after tonight if Romney takes Ohio. But then again, can Romney keep spending oodles and oodles of money just to eke out wins in states he was originally expected to run away with?

4:50 PM-

Once again, is "the skinny guy with the funny name" (who happens to now live in The White House) the real "big winner" of Super Tuesday? I'm thinking perhaps so.



And as I hinted at earlier today, a certain REPUBLICAN Senator from Alaska just added more evidence to suggest this.

Shortly after Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) admitted to her home-state paper that she regrets voting for the GOP’s Blunt amendment, which was aimed at rolling back President Obama’s contraception rule, she explained to TPM why the issue has weighed heavily on her — and why she thinks it’s damaging her party.

“I heard a lot [from my constituents] because it was in the news this weekend,” Murkowski told TPM Tuesday afternoon after attending a weekly GOP policy lunch. “I will tell you, it’s not so much just the discussion about contraception that the Blunt amendment precipitated. There’s just an awful lot that’s been going on. There have been some comments made by some of our presidential candidates. There was the incendiary comments made by Rush Limbaugh.”

Her remarks reflect a more widely shared sense among some conservatives and GOP lawmakers that leadership led the party astray in this fight — and that the appetite for pressing ahead with it is diminishing.

Murkowski, a high-ranked senator and former leadership member herself, worries that the sequence of events since GOP leaders twisted arms for Thursday’s losing vote has left her party on the wrong side of the issue, and that the public is taking note.

“I think [these incidents] are just adding to this sense that women’s health rights are being attacked — that in 2012 we’re having a conversation about whether or not contraception should be allowed,” Murkowski told TPM. “I think most thought that we were done with those discussions decades ago. So it’s been kind of an interesting week for women’s health issues.”

Again, "TEH CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" are doing nothing to help Republicans attract swing voters. They just look like kooky prudes straight out of some corny 1950s sitcom. And again, because "Frothy" Ricky and Newton have forced Mittens to lurch so far to the right that they're all joining in on Rush Limbaugh's war on America's women, the entire G-O-TEA looks sexist and stupid.

And because Republicans are again obsessing over "CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" instead of how to create more good American jobs, they're alienating not just women. They're alienating all sane, rational American voters. No wonder why President Obama's numbers keep getting better and better and better...

5:00 PM-

Now MSNBC is projecting Mitt Romney to win Massachusetts, while Tennessee and Oklahoma are too early to call. There are still no results yet from North Dakota.

5:05 PM-

MSNBC just revised its Ohio exit poll results... And Santorum seems to benefit from it. After doing a little "in head math", I found that Romney's projected lead shrunk from about 4% to only 1.5%. Hmmmm...

Mittens must be hoping MSNBC won't have to revise its exit poll results again. Apparently the polls had to be kept open a little late in some areas. Will this prove to be the ultimate last minute surprise?

5:20 PM-

So tonight is supposed to be Mitt Romney's "big night" of "big wins". So how is it panning out so far? TPM has an interesting take.

One potential sign of trouble for Romney is in Georgia, which networks called for Newt Gingrich almost immediately, suggesting a strong performance. While it’s not surprising Gingrich won given his close ties to the state, which he represented in Congress, the victory is a crucial jolt to a campaign that had fallen into dire straits. After a huge surge with a win in South Carolina last month, he’s been largely sidelined as Santorum’s taken over as the leading anti-Romney candidate. But don’t be surprised to see Gingrich make a play — yet again — for that title in the coming days thanks to a friendly schedule. March includes races in Southern states like Alabama and Missippi (March 13) and Louisiana (March 24) where he has the potential to make a run. Especially if Santorum has a weak night and Romney still struggles to win working class voters and ultra-conservative voters, Gingrich has plenty of potential for another comeback.

But if ever there was a show of the limitations of Gingrich and Santorum it’s Virginia, where neither qualified for the ballot. This was especially embarrassing for Gingrich, who currently lives in the state. Romney romped to an easy win there, with networks calling it as soon as polls closed. Santorum faces similar problems in the night’s biggest prize, Ohio, having failed to get delegates on the ballot in several Congressional districts. Romney erased a polling lead in the final days in that state as well as Tennessee, another favorable state to Santorum, giving him an opportunity to blunt his momentum much as he did with Gingrich in Florida.

Before the polls even closed, Team Santorum told reporters that their guy is staying in until the convention. Gingrich’s big (but not surprising) win in Georgia means you can expect him to stick around, too.

The narrative is basically written now: Romney is almost certainly going to be his party’s nominee. But with Santorum and Gingrich around, another narrative will also be close at hand: Romney’s an extremely weak frontrunner.

Let me add this. Look at Virginia right now. The only reason why Romney's winning is because Ron Paul is his only competition there... Yet he can't even clear 60% against "CRAZY!!!" Ron Paul! I thought Ron Paul was totally unacceptable to the G-O-TEA base. So why is he getting over 40% of the vote in Virginia with about 80% of precincts reporting?

And why can't Romney win any contest where he can't claim a "home field advantage" (MA, VT) and/or spend many millions to stomp his opponents (MI, FL)? Think about that. This is why Romney is such a weak "front runner".

5:30 PM-

I just looked at the Tennessee exit poll, and it suggests a 35-28 win for Santorum (with Romney claiming that 28% second place finish). At least he should be able to claim one big win tonight. However, don't completely discount Gingrich here. The exit poll suggests he'll finish a fairly close third with 23%. For someone who didn't do much outside Georgia and was left for dead (yet again) just two weeks ago, Newton seems to be coming back yet again.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newton goes on to campaign in more states, frustrate Santorum's campaign some more (by preventing him from coalescing "the anti-Romney vote"), and irritate Romney's campaign some more (by prevening him from wrapping up the primary fight this month).

5:45 PM-

Ha ha ha ha ha! This is why Newton will live to campaign another day. He knows how to throw the "red meat" to the G-O-TEA base like no one else. He's attacking the media, attacking President Obama, attacking his Republican rivals, attacking "the elites", and talking crazy with his nonsensical "big ideas". Yes, we may think he's a fruit cake... But the teabaggers love it.

We may think Gingrich's "big ideas" make no sense, but the "tea party" can't get enough of them. They may say they hate "BIG GUV'MINT!!!", they they love it when they think they're about to get more government money funneling their way. Oh yes, and they really love it when big government steps in to promote their "faith and moral values". Oh yes, this is why Newton will live to campaign another day.

5:50 PM-

Now Santorum is officially projected to win Oklahoma and Tennessee. He won't go away empty handed, far from it. We just have to wait and see what happens in Ohio. Oh, Ohio...

6:35 PM-

Sorry I missed Santorum's "victory speech", but I had to take a conference call. So far, it seems like my intuition was onto something. He's now leading 39-36 over Romney in Ohio. Now with only 40% of returns in, there's still plenty of time for Ohio to flip back to Romney. But if he keeps building up what's now a 14,000+ raw vote lead, Santorum may yet pull off what can now be described as a mild upset. So yet again, Mittens may be denied a "big win", and the G-O-TEA primary game is about to go into "reset mode" again.

This bumper car ride is just too fun to ignore... ;-)

7:20 PM-

OK. I'm looking at the Ohio results map right now. On one hand, Romney probably has plenty more votes coming his way in Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland and the inner ring Cleveland suburbs are. But on the other hand, Santorum probably still has more votes coming his way in a number of rural and small "rust belt town" counties. Santorum now has a 15,048 vote lead... Or 38% to 36% for Romney with 70% of precincts now accounted for.

This should be quite the long and exciting night... Which is NOT what Mittens had wanted. Hehe.

7:30 PM-

Now Santorum can claim another win under his belt... And this was a bit of a surprise. He got North Dakota. It isn't much, but it's still another embarrassment for Mittens.

7:35 PM-

Chuck Todd just announced on MSNBC that he doesn't think they'll be able to project a winner tonight. Why? At least two of their models show a finish around the 0.25% margin that requires an automatic recount. If that happens, it may be weeks before we know who wins the Ohio Republican Primary. That probably doesn't help either candidate tonight, but it's probably especially bad news for Romney, since he was expecting momentum from winning Ohio.

Again, this primary season WILL indeed go on... Even after several media pundits declared that "Super Tuesday" would crown an eventual nominee.

8:00 PM-

OK. This is likely my final update for tonight. Santorum has been clinging to a 2,000+ vote lead in Ohio for the last 30 minutes or so. Last I checked, it's back up to about 3,200 votes, or about 1%. Yes, it's really that close right now.

There's plenty of spin on how Romney will try to claim the final results as some kind of "win". But as I've been saying all night, the results from across the country suggests he does NOT have the G-O-TEA nomination as "wrapped up" as he wants us to believe. The base still can't stand him.

And again, this prolonged nomination process continues to reveal the G-O-TEA brand for the empty rhetoric that's really there. Really, what do they have? Crazy opposition to birth control? Nonsensical rants against Islam? More irrational drum beats for a horrific war on Iran? More hating on gay married couples? More insane "billionaire bailouts" they want to throw into the federal tax code?

Throughout this insanely ridiculous primary/caucus process, the G-O-TEA has been proving why it's become such an EPIC FAIL. And as I've been saying constantly over here, this is why the G-O-TEA is paving the way for its own defeat in November regardless of who gets to be its nominee. Don't believe me? Believe these numbers. They're not lying.

Sheldon Gives Newton Another Lifeline (& Mittens Rejoices)

He's back...

The top super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich is going up with nearly $900,000 worth of radio ads in six key states holding contests in the next two weeks.

The Winning Our Future ad buy appears to come on the heels of another significant cash infusion from casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and gives Gingrich the kind of presence on the airwaves that he hasn’t had on Super Tuesday, which could be a make-or-break moment for his struggling campaign.

According to figures provided to The Fix by a media buy, the super PAC bought $238,000 worth of ads in Georgia, $235,000 in Ohio, $172,000 in Tennessee and $98,000 in Oklahoma. It is also buying in two Southern states holding primaries a week later — $92,000 in Alabama and $32,000 in Mississippi.

Are any of us surprised? He spent his way to put Newton on top in South Carolina last month. And it seems that Gingrich (and perhaps Romney soon?) will be more than happy to keep taking Adelson's money despite growing concerns over his company's legal problems involving his Macau casinos.

So much for Willard and Newton trying to call everyone else a "Manchurian Candidate"...

It looks like The Chicago Tribune caught a sneak preview of Newton's Super PAC's upcoming attack ads.

One of the new TV ads features what appears to be man-on-the-street interviews with working-class voters who express suspicion of Romney.

“I looked at Mitt Romney’s record and I can’t figure out what he stands for,” says one woman. “It changes.”

“I just don’t relate to Romney,” says another woman.

“I really don’t know if I can trust him,” adds a man.

One of the women describes Gingrich as “the only one who understands what we’re going through today,” citing the high price of gas. “Romney’s not the type to pump his own gas,” she adds, as the screen shows an image of Romney boarding a private plane. [...]

A series of new radio commercials that are airing nationally, designed to sound like a call-in radio show, takes aim at both Romney and Santorum.

In one, a caller named Joey with a distinct New Jersey accent dismisses the idea that Romney could be the GOP nominee.

“Somethin’ about him,” Joey says. “He’s not one of us. He’s not tough enough. And Rick? He ain’t my guy, either. What’s he ever done?... If you really want to stick it to the bums in D.C., it’s Newt. The guy’s a fighter. And he ain’t afraid to hurt nobody’s feelings.… You imagine what he’d do to Obama in a debate? He’d take him apart.”

Hmmm... So Newton is attacking both Mittens and Ricky? It does make me wonder what his Super PAC chief and Sheldon Adelson are thinking here. However, I'm sure some folks in Chicago are quite happy to see Newton's vanity contribute to the implosion of the G-O-TEA this year.

No Se Puede?

So far, it looks like the American electorate in 2012 will be the most diverse electorate our country has ever seen. Earlier today, NALEO released stats to confirm this.

The number of Hispanics who will head to voter booths in November is projected to increase by 26 percent over 2008, a national Latino interest group announced Wednesday.

The bipartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund based its projections on average increases in turnout in previous elections as reported by the Census Bureau.

Hispanic voter turnout in 2008 was 9.7 million, and is expected to reach 12.2 million this year. The interest group said the increased projection is due in part to the estimated 50,000 Latinos who turn 18 each month.

“Latinos continue to reshape the nation’s political map, and the Latino electorate will play a decisive role in Election 2012,” NALEO executive director Arturo Vargas said in a statement.

If the group’s projection holds true, Latinos will account for at least 8.7 percent of the country’s voters in November.

Vargas concluded: “Both presidential candidates and political parties must actively work to engage Latino voters and address the issues they care about. This electorate has shown that it cannot be taken for granted by either party … Latinos played a key role in the 2008 election; they will determine who is sworn in on January 20, 2013.”

So why on earth are Republicans doing everything they can to turn away Latin@ voters? Remember when Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle made her campaign so xenophobic that even Republicans ran away in total disgust?



It now looks like today's batch of G-O-TEA Presidential Candidates are following in her footsteps. And even Republicans are wondering aloud if their Presidential Candidates can tone down the "TEA" flavored xenophobia in time to make inroads with Latin@ voters in the general election.



Now of course, it can be argued that these candidates are just trying to keep up with their "base". After all, they've been demanding a holiday for white people, discriminatory & unnecessary voter ID laws, renewed acceptance of white nationalists, and crazy immigration statutes that cost jobs and hurt the economy. But really, how far must these candidates go to please "the base"?

Look at how far Willard Romney has gone. He's been endorsed by the extreme right Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), the guy perhaps most responsible for Arizona's and Alabama's extreme anti-immigrant statutes as well as someone with well documented ties to white supremacist groups.



Mittens not only opposes comprehensive immigration reform, but he also virulently opposes the DREAM Act, and he's been confronted by Latin@ students over it. And if that weren't bad enough, Romney's economic policies would also hurt Latino families if enacted by stripping away their health care, taking away opportunities to attend college, and destroying Social Security. Oh, and he also has long standing ties to Former California Governor Pete Wilson (R), the guy who ran on the extreme anti-immigrant Prop 187 and ultimately killed whatever chances California Republicans had of ever winning the Latino vote again.

And how are the other G-O-TEA candidates aiming to distinguish themselves from Mittens? Oh, they're also embracing the xenophobia! "Frothy" Ricky Santorum also opposes comprehensive immigration reform, and he's actually gone so far as to endorse mass deportation! Meanwhile, Newton Leroy Gingrich has called Spanish a "language of the ghetto", supports a ridiculous policy on English language that would hurt American business if enacted, and now wants to send tracking devices to undocumented immigrants (HUH??!!). Is there an end to all this G-O-TEA crazy?

Republican strategists must be hoping so, as their candidates' polling numbers among Latinos are becoming absolutely atrocious. Of course, the overall polling data are becoming worse for everyone in the G-O-TEA field. But if they can't close the gap with Latinos, then there's little hope for sustained overall improvement. As we noted above, Latinos are a fast growing part of our electorate. And as long as the likes of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue to bash Latino Americans, they're just sowing the seeds of their own defeat this November.

Muchas gracias, Republicanos, para su estupidez.

#NVCaucus Liveblog #2

OK, let's pick up where we left off!

3:20 PM-

With about 1% in, Mittens has officially taken the big lead with 54%.

Now ABC News' entrance poll is confirming what NYT found earlier, which is that LDS turnout is slightly up to 26% of total Republican caucus-goers. Sorry, Newton. Mittens is getting a big win tonight... Even if the entire G-O-TEA will later live to regret it.

But of course, to be fair, Mittens is also dominating in almost every demographic group. Only poorer GOP voters (Whoa! You mean there are some left?) and young (under 30) GOP voters opted for Ron Paul over Mitt Romney according to CNN's entrance poll.

Well, if it makes the Paul-bots feel any better, Steve Sebelius just declared him the winner (in a weird way).

Oh, and some crazy fringe former R-J editor wrote a rambling love letter to Newt Gingrich.

3:40 PM-

Oh, yay! The train wreck continues. Even while Amy Tarkanian goes on MSNBC now to put a happy face on what's been happening today, another right-wing blogger is complaining about the caucus process.

Meanwhile out there in Beltway-ville, there's an interesting diary in Washington Monthly's blog on what to possibly expect in the general election. While there have been plenty of comparisons to more recent election cycles (1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, and 1996), are Republicans about to repeat their mistakes made in 1940? Again, this is why I suspect Mitt Romney's likely "impressive victory" is really more of a pyrrhic victory. As we talked about on Wednesday, as Mittens moves further and further toward the radical right, he's turning off voters in the middle and looking even more out-of-touch as "Mr. 1%". Maybe teabaggers are digging it, but all the rest of us aren't.

3:55 PM-

Ruh-roh. Apparently, Newt Gingrich had a sit-down earlier today with his top money men... Including Sugar Daddy #1, Sheldon Adelson. That may not be good for Newton... Or for anyone hoping he sticks around for longer.

Meanwhile in the real world, local AP reporter Cristina Silva actually received word from the Washoe County Republican Party that turnout was down from 2008 "partly because people wanted to ski". Wait... HUH??!! So are they admitting that a day on the snowy slopes is more exciting than spending a day at the local G-O-TEA caucus? Are they admitting that their caucuses are so pointless that Northern Nevadans decided their time was better spent skiing?

Again, Nevada Republicans are doing a fantastic job losing this next election all on their own! :-D

4:15 PM-

Oh, looky here. Don't be surprised if the material in this Ron Paul aligned attack ad resurfaces in the general election.



Again, this may prove to be another pyrrhic victory for Mittens.

Meanwhile, "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is avoiding us entirely as he now does events in Colorado. Wait... Colorado? Seriously? When voting hasn't even ended yet here in Nevada? I guess "The Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Effect" really did nothing to boost him.

Oh, and here's another confirmation from Karen Griffin at KRNV (NBC 4 Reno) that Republican turnout today was horrible. Expectations were made for 15-16,000 caucus-goers in Washoe County, but apparently they couldn't even muster turnout of 7,000. Yikes! So much for all that "tea party enthusiasm"!

4:40 PM-

In case there weren't enough theatrics to provide some amusement tonight, here's another twist. Apparently Nevada REPUBLICAN caucus-goers have had enough of the crazy caucus process, and they're now saying they want a primary instead. But wait, I thought the "tea party" was against "big guv'mint"... So now they want a GOVERNMENT run election? Heh. As I tweeted earlier, I expect them to pony up the tax dollars next legislative session if they really want a primary next time.

4:55 PM-

Is this for real? Did the Nevada Republican Party really just send an email reminding people to caucus? Ummm... Nearly all the caucuses are OVER! The only one left tonight is the special "religious objections" caucus that Sheldon Adelson muscled onto the schedule is only open to those with an absent note who couldn't attend the other caucuses for religious reasons. Again, that final caucus is closed to the vast majority of Nevadans... So why did they send that email?

Wow. Is it really amateur hour over there in NVGOP-ville? This was their real tweet from a few minutes ago:

T minus 15 minutes. Everything has been smooth sailing so far today. Great work by the whole team! #nvcaucus

LOL indeed. ;-)

Your G-O-TEA Caucus Primer for Today

Here's all you need to know about the train wreck excitement culminating here today:

- Mitt Romney will spin just about anything that happens tonight as a "hard won victory". Despite swamping our state with his ads (Have you seen Facebook lately? Channel 8? I-15?), outspending everyone else, and starting here with a natural built-in advantage from 2008, Mittens will want all of us to know he had to "work so hard" to win the caucus.

- Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich will be trying to spin any kind of 2nd place finish as a "stunning, come-from-behind victory". Guess who reemerged on MSNBC yesterday to spin this?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

She's back! Hi, Suzy. So how are the chickens doing?

No wonder why Newton is doomed here.

- Guess who's also reemerged from political obscurity? She's also back!



Oh yes, but not even Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron can save "Frothy" Ricky Santorum's faltering campaign. No wonder why he fled to Missouri last night.

- Oh, and then there's Ron Paul. Like Mittens, he will also be spinning anything as a "hard won victory".



Of course, all he cares about is the delegate count. As long as he keeps piling up delegates, Ron Paul can throw a temper tantrum before the convention and try to extract concessions from Republican leadership.

- And then we have the Nevada G-O-TEA itself. Can it manage to attract 100,000 people to caucus today? 50,000? Considering Mittens' already looking like the winner of today, and considering the good economic numbers President Obama can now bank on, will Nevadans be eager to caucus today? Oh yes, and since only registered Republicans can participate today, that also limits turnout.

Does It Matter Who Wins Tomorrow?

As we're only about 24 hours away from all the fun and games of the Nevada G-O-TEA Caucus, the various campaigns are trying all sorts of last-minute attempts to capture momentum and win over any undecided caucus-goers left. Mitt Romney's supporters Someone is floating rumors that Nevada's own Brian Sandoval may end up on Mittens' VP short list. Meanwhile in libertarian fringe-ville, Ron Paul continues to insist that Romney doesn't have the LDS vote locked up. And Newton? Since his faux-populist campaign seems to be going nowhere fast here in The Silver State, he's just giving up.

But even considering all of this, is there something that can influence the upcoming election even more? Yes, but it's probably not what you think. Regardless of what happens at tomorrow's caucus sites, Republicans will have to face this reality. And this.

Think about it. The whole G-O-TEA plan to win the general election this fall has been based on blaming President Obama for a horrible economy. But as their "leaders" in Congress prove they care nothing about improving the economy while President Obama now has a growing body of evidence to prove his economic policies are working. I guess this can explain why Mitt Romney is having a complete nervous breakdown over the new unemployment numbers.

Maybe this also explains his newfound love of Donald Trump?



And this may explain why Nevadans have yet to get excited about the whole G-O-TEA clown car catastrophe.

Wherein Nevada Is Positioned to Remain a "Blue State" in 2012, Part II

Last October, I could already see the train wreck coming. And now, it's about to get awfully messy over here.



Ron Paul actually came here early yesterday to rally his base with more nonsensical rants against the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile in the other end of the valley, "Frothy" Ricky Santorum also came early to win over Sharrontology's true believers. The fireworks are already starting, and the crazy here is about to be turned up some more once Mittens and Newton finally come to town.

Believe it or not, there is plenty at stake here in The Silver State. Despite Romney winning Florida last night (ahem, with under 50% of the vote), the G-O-TEA primary race is still incredibly unsettled. And with expectations all over the place for Saturday, we don't really know what will ultimately be considered a true "Romney win".

However, we are starting to see how all this G-O-TEA madness will be coming back to bite them all this fall. This morning, Harry Reid, Richard Bryan, and Bob Miller penned this Las Vegas Sun op-ed detailing how Mittens' courtship with "Tea Party, Inc." has taken him, and the entire Republican Party, way out of the Nevada mainstream. Because Romney has worked overtime to compete with the other "clown car candidates" in pandering to the "tea party", he's sounding increasingly insane.



Oh yes, try telling this to poor folks here in Nevada. And try making sense of this.



Between his "blind trusts" that are not so "blind" after all, his extreme anti-immigrant rhetoric, his profits from home foreclosures amassing while he told us "not to try and stop the foreclosure process", his embrace of extreme homophobic bigots, and his unabashed celebration of his own status as "Mr. 1%", Mitt Romney is doing a great job in making himself unelectable. Don't believe me? Look at the numbers.

Nevadans are looking for a leader who's really interested in solving the problems we face. We need a leader who's willing to fight for an economy that's built to last, and one that works for everyone. And now, the big picture is starting to look clearer as we see the leader who's been here all along.

Barack Obama has been an extraordinary president. He works harder than anyone to advocate for the American worker, the American middle class and the American consumer. He has turned an economy bleeding 700,000 jobs a month at the time he took office to one that created 3.2 million private sector jobs in the last 22 months. He waged his presidency and all of his political capital for something he believed in and got done what other presidents - Democratic and Republican - have been talking about for over half a century: health care reform. He put forth the toughest set of regulations on Wall Street since the 1930s and created the first ever consumer watchdog agency at the federal level. He passed credit card reform and student loan reform.

He repealed the reprehensible policy that said one couldn't serve the country they love if the person they love happened to be of the wrong gender. He instituted equal pay for women and required hospitals to respect the committed relationships of same sex couples. He delivered the first tax cut for the working poor in memory in the form of a payroll tax cut. He almost singlehandedly rescued the American auto industry and saved a million jobs. He signed trade deals that will actually help American manufacturing and American jobs.

Oh, and he took out Osama bin Laden and crippled Al Qaeda. He engaged the world community in Libya, led a mission as part of NATO to aid the Libyan people free themselves. He ended the war in Iraq.

You want to know why Nevada will be a "Blue State" again this year? You need not look any further than the President... And the G-O-TEA buffoons who are (unintentionally) showing us why the President deserves reelection.

So Now We Matter?

I guess it's official now. Ralston says "we matter" again, so now we matter. But wait, we're not quite done with Florida yet!



And despite Florida's results starting to look and feel like a foregone conclusion, there may yet be intrigue ahead as all this election year madness comes to our own backyard. After all, Republican primary voters still don't like Mitt Romney. And as long as they don't like Romney and keep flirting with the other candidates, this process may yet stretch out for a while.

Here's Rachel Maddow explaining why she's actually excited about our G-O-TEA Caucus fast approaching.

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Now there are plenty of doubts that Newt Gingrich really has the kind of infrastructure he needs to keep his campaign going through this spring, but how much does that really matter? If Mittens keeps spending all his millions to continue "winning" with far less than 50% of the vote, then can he really wrap up the nomination soon?

And don't forget, there's another factor here. Ron Paul has been spending almost as much on TV ads as Romney, and he does have a strong organization here. This is part of his "Caucus Plan" to amass delegates in inexpensive caucus states (like ours) instead of trying to compete in big primary states (like Florida) with pricey media markets. Can Ron Paul actually win the Caucus this Saturday? Or at the very least, can he pull enough support to force Romney's campaign to spin another 30-40% finish as a "convincing victory!"?

Whatever the case, the media are declaring that "we matter" again. So I guess we should celebrate this circus coming back to town for the next 100 hours?

Taxing Times

He definitely went there last night.

Romney has raised eyebrows for opposing the auto-industry bailout. In his address, Obama chided, “[s]ome even said we should let it die.” This is largely true of many Republicans in Congress, who could not bring themselves to applaud a proposal to reverse tax incentives that encourage outsourcing and discourage repatriating jobs to the U.S.

Where Romney has called for allowing the foreclosure crisis to run its course, Obama said that “responsible homeowners shouldn’t have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief,” before introducing a mortgage modification plan to Congress that will give “every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year…by refinancing at historically low interest rates,” which was met with silence by the GOP.

Perhaps most famously, Romney has suggested that public appeals for addressing inequality and bringing equity to the tax code evince envy on the part of advocates who have pressed those issues into the national dialogue.

“When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich,” Obama retorted. “It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference - like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet.”

All in all, President Obama laid out an aggressive vision of progressive solutions for America. He wants to ensure the super-rich who earn over $1,000,000 a year pay at least 30% income tax. (Remember, Mitt Romney paid only 13.9% on his $21.6 million in 2010 income!) He also proposed eliminating tax breaks for shutting down US factories, renewing investment in clean energy, making mortgage refinancing more accessible to more distressed homeowners, making college more affordable to more students, and even more. And by reforming the broken tax code and ending the wars we've been mired in the last decade (Iraq is over, and hopefully Afghanistan will end soon), we can easily afford this.

Last night, the President made an important point. When the super-rich, like Mitt Romney, avoid paying the taxes they're supposed to be paying, they're essentially stealing from America. When Mitt Romney hides some of his money in Swiss bank accounts to avoid paying taxes, he's taking away from seniors trying to pay for their prescription drugs. When Mitt Romney throws some of his money into investment funds based in the Cayman Islands, he's taking away from college students trying to keep up with their tuition. And when Mitt Romney tries to hide behind capital gains tax rates that allow him and other super-rich folks to pay less in income taxes than struggling formerly middle class families, he's taking away from those families as they're doing everything possible to stay afloat.

Take another look at what the President said last night.

Tax reform should follow the Buffett rule: If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than 30 percent in taxes…Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.

We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right.

It's not right... But it's not stopping the G-O-TEA from continuing to make excuses for it. Yet no matter how much Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich try to paper over their "legal" tax evasion, it's nonetheless tax evasion that takes away from what makes America great. It's about time we do something to fix this. We can't wait any more.

Yes, We Really Do Matter.

Remember the run up to New Hampshire's primary? It may now seem like a million years ago, but it's really been just two weeks. Then, we learned that Sheldon Adelson planned to up the ante for his BFF Newt Gingrich. And regardless of what he says about what he supposedly knew (or not) about how Newt's Super PAC would nip at Mitt Romney's Achilles' Heel,

Well, apparently Adelson is about to go all in... And so is his wife! And since this week may be the most critical ever for Newt Gingrich and his political career, as well as Mitt Romney and his political career, the stakes couldn't be higher.

And yet again, there will be increased focus on Mittens' full embrace of his role as "Mr. 1%".



No really, think about it.

But Gingrich’s upset victory in South Carolina seems to show that potency of arguments that highlight the unfairness and inequality of our economic system. As Ruy Texeira writes, conservatives “should realize they’re attacking the opinions of most Americans who do, in fact, believe the system unfairly favors the wealthy“.

On CNN’s State of the Union yesterday, Gingrich took a bit of victory lap on the Bain attacks, acknowledging that they helped him win South Carolina because, he argued, they show voters where Romney is vulnerable against President Obama.

Indeed, after several weeks dominated by the controversy over Bain and Romney’s tax returns, the former governor risks losing his frontrunner status. Romney is down by double digits in Florida and is barely hanging onto a one point lead nationally, according to Gallup. For instance, one self-described “scorned woman” in South Carolina told TPM that she voted for Gingrich, even as lurid new revelations about his second wife were emerging, because of Romney’s waffling on his tax returns.

It’s worth remembering that in its early days, the Tea Party was nearly as anti-Wall Street as it was anti-government, galvanized by the Wall Street bailout. Much of that resentment likely remains, despite the best efforts of conservative elites to redirect that anger toward the government in order to white wash the distasteful record of companies like Bain.

Even though Sheldon Adelson is also "Mr. 1%" and he apparently wasn't all that into Newt's Bain attacks, his donation to Newt's Super-PAC just as it was about to release the "King of Bain" anti-Romney movie onto South Carolina airwaves nonetheless triggered this debate on economic inequality on the right. And what really makes this interesting is that despite all the efforts of the Nevada Republican Party to make its caucus totally irrelevant, Nevada and our biggest concerns may matter more in this election than we had ever imagined. And especially if Mittens plans to hit Newton on housing while Newton hits Mitten on Bain, perhaps Nevadans really will see more of a discussion on economic issues that we want answers on.

Of course, this probably won't be good for the G-O-TEA. Remember this?



Mittens doesn't want us to... But that's too bad. And funny enough, Sheldon Adelson is doing his part to help us remember.

Really, Newton?

Really? Really?

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I was laughing as I was hearing this. He sounds like the petulant "bad boy" in high school who just stole the annoying rich guy's (aka Mitt Romney's) lunch money... Which may not sound like much, until we realize that annoying rich guy's lunch money is enough to take a whole pack of hungry teens to Morton's!

Of course, never mind that Newton himself has become a very rich man... And is advocating a tax system that slashes his own taxes. Fellow Catholics are calling on Newton and Ricky Santorum to stop "perpetuating ugly racial stereotypes" of poor people. He really did use a form of populism to win South Carolina... But it was an ugly kind of populism centered on ugly racial stereotypes and rampant xenophobia.

Ironically enough, Newt Gingrich rode this wave of anti-establishment populism to win South Carolina despite his tax plan that wildly favors the top 1% over everyone else, as well as his endorsement of Rick Perry's crazy claim that Social Security is "unconstitutional". Funny enough, for all of Newt's (and all the other GOPers') past attacks on Ron Paul, he now seems to be co-opting a whole lot of Ron Paul's extreme libertarian views (and xenophobia) to remake himself as a "populist".

Apparently when G-O-TEA base voters compare and contrast this to Mitt Romney's flip-flops on just about everything, they're choosing Newt... And to a lesser extent, cherry picking the policy positions of "Tea Party Ideological Grandfather" Ron Paul. With Newt, they can "have their cake and eat it, too" with his embrace of neoconservative demands for more wars everywhere, total destruction of the American social safety net as we know it, and a bizarre far right twist on populism that "Mr. 1%" Mitt Romney just can't pull off. Maybe the media pundits really did "misunderestimate" Newton's ability to give "tea partiers" exactly what they want, regardless of how ideologically incoherent we see it.

Live from South Carolina: It's "Newt-mentum"!

4:03 PM-

Whoa. NBC News just projected Newt Gingrich as the winner in South Carolina. And CNN's exit poll shows Newt winning comfortably. Is he the political cat with nine lives? And is the G-O-TEA ready for yet another shakeup as primary season rolls on?

4:11 PM-

More from MSNBC:

Gingrich's performance in South Carolina was driven in thanks to late deciders, who broke decisively in his direction in the last few days of the campaign. That stretch saw two debate performances by Gingrich, on Monday and Thursday nights. Almost two-thirds of voters said the debates were an important factor in their decision, and Gingrich won about half of them.

More broadly, core elements of the GOP base in South Carolina – conservatives, Tea Party supporters and evangelical Christians – broke for Gingrich. And the former speaker even edged Romney in two important constituencies for the former Massachusetts governor: voters who said electability in November was their most important concern in a nominee, and voters who said the economy was their top issue.

The results upset the conventional wisdom in the race, which had set expectations for Romney to score a knockout blow against his competitors with a win in the Palmetto State.

Gingrich’s victory reshapes the race, at a minimum extending the primary contest through the Jan. 31 primary in Florida. The South Carolina results underscore Romney’s lingering inability to overcome skepticism from conservatives about electing him as their standard-bearer against President Obama this fall.

So in other words, "The Base" is just not that into Mittens. Tonight should be fun. Stay tuned. ;-)

4:30 PM-

Before we hear any crazy spin on this, let's remember this: Mittens and his Super-PACs outspent everyone else in South Carolina. They spent more than any two campaigns (+ aligned Super-PACs) combined, yet he's still getting a big thumping tonight.

And what's really interesting here is that despite Mittens having more money on his side, Newt succeeded in attacking Romney from all sides with his "Massachusetts Moderate" and Bain Capital one-two punch. He really boxed Romney in as "the rich lib'rul elitist", and it really hurt Romney in this Deep South state.

4:50 PM-

In many ways, Newt Gingrich really is "The Republican Id". Here's what I'm talking about:



And don't forget this:



Newt has mastered the "politics of resentment", and he used racism and xenophobia to propel himself (back) to the top of the polls in South Carolina.

5:08 PM-

Want to know just how badly Mittens lost in South Carolina? Take a look at CNN's exit poll data. Whoa. Romney got creamed among "tea party" voters, Christian fundamentalists, and pretty much every other group that defines the G-O-TEA base... Except one. Mitt did win among voters who earn $200,000 or more per year, so he's still the official candidate of the elite 1%.

5:30 PM-

The Daily Beast reminds us of South Carolina's sordid and lurid history of "dirty tricks campaigning". Both Romney and Gingrich did plenty of that there, but ultimately Gingrich's proved to be more effective. And just as I had suspected last week, Bain Capital was ultimately a big part of Newt taking down Mitt. It may have seemed weird to outsiders to see Newt and his allies hit Romney over Bain, then hit Romney over social issues, but that's how they made him anathema to white working class Republicans.

Remember that.

Game Change?

Well, today looks to be quite the exciting day. On the G-O-TEA side, Rick Perry dropped out...



And Mitt Romney didn't really win Iowa, after all!

The Iowa state GOP says their certified results show Rick Santorum winning by a 34-vote margin over Mitt Romney, a reversal of Romney’s reported caucus night lead of 8 votes — but the party has nevertheless called the result a “split decision,” citing the matter of 8 missing precincts. But those precincts aren’t really missing. [...]

[...T]he results that were reported on caucus night by the state GOP are still online. And for those precincts, we can get an idea of how Santorum and Romney performed against each other. Of course, we should remain aware that there still could be a typo in these numbers — but on the other hand, the probabilities strongly favor them being accurate for both Santorum and Romney, as errors that do occur (if at all) could have been spread across the other candidates, as well.

And as it turns out, when incorporating the numbers from election night, Santorum’s lead actually becomes even wider. [...]

In those precincts, based on the reported caucus night results, Santorum received a total of 81 votes, to Romney’s 46.

If those results are added to the certified results, Santorum’s 29,839 votes would become 29,920, and Romney’ 29,805 would become 29,851 — for a “final” result of Santorum winning the caucuses, by a margin of 69 votes.

They don't like Mittens... They really don't like him. And with Perry bowing out to endorse Newt Gingrich and Romney's "dazzling Iowa win!!!" officially taken away from him, perhaps South Carolina will provide fireworks, after all...

But Nevada's G-O-TEA Caucus still looks to arrive like a dud. Now that Perry's out, Brian Sandoval's endorsement doesn't seem to be worth a hill of beans. And funny enough, the big candidate appearance that everyone is now talking about... Is President Obama's.

President Barack Obama will visit Las Vegas next week, on a five-stop swing through the West and Midwest.

Obama will be arriving in Las Vegas on Wednesday, Jan. 25 and stay overnight, departing on Thursday, Jan. 26. No further details about the trip were immediately available, except that the president’s visit — like Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Reno’s Galena High School on Thursday to talk about college affordability — is official White House business.

The two trips bookend the Nevada Democratic Caucuses this Saturday. While the vice president and president’s stops in the Silver State are not officially part of the 2012 reelection campaign effort, the high-profile visits are likely to drum up Democratic enthusiasm just before the Republican presidential field arrives in Nevada for the GOP caucuses on Feb. 4.

Oh, and this will be just a week after Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Reno today.

Add all this together, and the big picture looks far less rosy for Mittens. He didn't win the Iowa Caucus, he still may not win the South Carolina Primary, and a Nevada Caucus win still won't mean anything. He still has a tough primary schedule ahead to tackle, and his general election numbers are still lousy. So how again is Mittens "the winner"?

While They Prosper, We Suffer

Today, the RGJ reminded us of the poverty many Nevada families are suffering under. As we discussed yesterday, many see a crisis of income inequality... But Newt Gingrich saw an opportunity to rally teabaggers by attacking poor people of color...



While Mitt Romney sang the praises of vulture capitalism, which he calls "free enterprise":



Hey, don't look at all those unemployed workers!



And don't look at all that government backed corporate welfare!

It's all "free enterprise" and it's all good, so long as the likes of Mitt and Newt continue to prosper, even as the rest of us suffer.

As time goes on and primary season comes to a close at some point, Mittens will try to cover up his record... But he can't. He can't act like it never existed.

During his tenure, Bain acquired numerous companies, often through debt leveraging, then liquidated a number of them, resulting in the loss of thousands of jobs for American workers while bringing in hundreds of millions in profit for Romney and Bain’s other investors.

Several other GOP candidates, especially Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have lept at the chance to attack the front-runner, aggressively attacking Romney’s time at Bain as an example of “looting” companies and “vulture capitalism.” The rift has not only split the Republican Party at the highest ranks, but also seems to be sparking a minor crisis of identity within Republican ranks over the party’s relationship with capitalism itself. At the very least, as numerous commentators are acknowledging, the dust-up now has the GOP candidates doing the Obama campaign’s opposition work for it.

This is the "tea party", radical right philosophy that we can't simply ignore. There's a reason why Mitt Romney calls what he did at Bain Capital "free enterprise", then attacks those who question his lofty (and false) job creation claims. Take a look at what Bain was really out to do, then notice how Romney wants to slash taxes for the top 1% while shifting the tax burden even more to working class families. Even though America's wealthiest are doing just fine, and even though poverty in America has reached levels we haven't seen since The Great Depression, Mitt Romney and the G-O-TEA want to take us back to the policies and "ideas" that created this catastrophe in the first place.

Yes, income inequality is a real problem and it really does hurt our overall economy. We can't ignore it. We can't relegate it to "quiet places". We can't laugh about making poor kids work as janitors. And we can't allow future generations to suffer.

Republicans & "Class Warfare"

Mitt Romney is trying hard to brush off criticism of his "private sector experience". He's trying (again) to blame everything on President Obama and his Republican rivals, but can he afford to ignore what the actual voters are saying?



And can he ignore "tea party" Congressional "rock stars" (and key opinion makers) in upcoming early primary states?



So does REPUBLICAN Jon Huntsman really sound all that crazy, after all?



Nevada Republicans may now be worrying about how this affects the general election campaign, but they really can't blame some "big, bad Democrat bogeyman!!!" Sorry, folks, but neither President Obama nor Harry Reid told them how to run their party (into the ground), and neither one of them is forking over the big bucks to air these attack ads.



Actually, it's none other than Nevada Republican darling Sheldon Adelson! And really, does it sound all that different from this mini-documentary that MoveOn recently released?



So perhaps the issue here isn't who's attacking Mitt Romney. Perhaps the real issue here is what Mitt Romney did at Bain Capital.

Thanks, G-O-TEA, for Bursting Mittens' Bubble

Rick Santorum must be giddy right now. Instead of suffering an intense media focus on his role in John Ensign's career ending scandal, Mitt Romney just tossed him a reprieve... And a ready-made issue that may yet end Romney's political career. As we've been talking about endlessly here, Romney has a BIG Bain (as in, Bain Capital) problem.

And now, all of a sudden, Newt Gingrich is jumping on it...

“You have to ask the question, is capitalism really about the ability of a handful of rich people to manipulate the lives of thousands of people and then walk off with the money?”

Who said it — Elizabeth Warren? Dennis Kucinich? Noam Chomsky?

Not quite, that was Newt Gingrich talking to reporters at an energy company in Manchester on Monday about his new effort to paint Mitt Romney as a greedy one-percenter who finds “clever legal ways” to go about “looting a company” while screwing over its workers. [...]

The former Speaker is making the case that, in contrast to good old fashioned businesses who make stuff, Romney and his ilk have instead gamed the system to create a soulless machine that profits from the misery of others. Whereas Republicans used to merely whisper that Bain was an electability problem for Romney, Gingrich and other candidates are now openly making the case that the invisible hand has failed to stop corporate raiders from hurting American workers — even as they condemn President Obama as a radical socialist for his rhetoric on Wall Street.

“I am totally for capitalism, I am for free markets,” Gingrich assured reporters on Monday. “Nobody objects to Bill Gates being extraordinarily rich, they provide a service.” What he instead is concerned about is when an investor receives “six-to-one returns, and the company goes bankrupt.”

OUCH! And to add insult to injury...

When you go to South Carolina, that was one of those cities that had a business -- it was a photo album and a framing business. And those people are out of work today after Bain Capital basically gut the company. Took $20 million of profit out of it and people lost their jobs. There is a steel manufacturer here in South Carolina. Mitt Romney will have a hard time coming into South Carolina and have the people here think he's anything but a rich Wall Streeter that took advantage of their businesses. People lost their jobs, they lost their pensions, they lost a lot.

The bottom line for Bain was making money. It wasn't about helping the people of South Carolina or trying to keep these people employed. The idea that Mitt stood up and said he's worried about pink slips. This is probably one of the richest people ever to run for president of the United States. Son of a multi-millionaire. An individual -- Mitt Romney has never worried about pink slip. He might have worried about not having enough of them to hand out. But he's not worried about losing his job.

Whoops. I guess Mittens really does have a growing problem on his hands.

And you know what's really funny here? In their zeal for attacking Mittens and destroying his Presidential aspirations, they're actually doing a good job in articulating why their own G-O-TEA policies have failed America. No really, think about it.

Who's been making noise about "vulture capitalists" like Mitt Romney for the last 30 years? And who's been trying to get Americans to realize the consequences of deregulation and "supply side" mayhem? And who's been offering alternative economic policies that really work in creating jobs and providing more stability?

And now, it's none other than the Republican clown car circus of candidates themselves that are reminding Americans of why President Obama deserves reelection. Thank you, G-O-TEA. And I actually mean it. ;-)