Earlier this week on MSNBC, Rachel Maddow noted the still unfolding drama in the G-O-TEA primary. Even though all the rest of us consider it over and done for Mittens, Ron Paul's loyal band of followers still refuses to give up. And believe it or not, they're causing the Romney campaign more headaches than the DC pundits had originally expected.
And the drama isn't limited to the Midwest. In fact, there's quite a bit of that right here in Nevada! Remember that lovely legal, organizational, and "small d democratic" EPIC FAIL that was the Nevada Republican Caucus?
Ron Paul's Nevada supporters haven't. And apparently, they're now out for revenge.
I recently received an E-mail from a disaffected Ron Paul supporter that Nevada Paul Campaign Chair Carl Bunce recently sent out to his supporters. The long and the short of it is that it’s a battle plan which encourages Paul folks to lie to pollsters to “fool” the Romney campaign, in order to make it easier to shock-’n'-awe their way to a Ron Paul National Convention slate. It’s full of paranoia about information control (Hah! Fail!) and secrecy, with a nice dab of Personality Cult for Doctor Paul.
Well, secret’s out, you dishonest goofballs. Everyone knows your game. [...]
Don’t these people realize that if they had a winning message, they wouldn’t have the need for all the secrecy? Don’t they see what hypocrites they look like when they cry about dishonesty and lack of transparency in government? And remember, this isn’t just some independent Paul supporter. This IS the Ron Paul campaign, and Ron Paul himself is directly responsible for it. Either the Congressman is blind to these types of shenanigans, or he endorses it. Which is it, Good Doctor? Will you renounce this assault on actual liberty being perpetuated in your name? There’s certainly nothing “libertarian” about any of this.
Nevada Republicans were promised by their Central Committee that their caucus votes would be proportionally binding all the way through the first round of voting at the national convention. I have to wonder – if these Paul people wind up going to the national convention, will they honor that promise? Or will they just openly betray the Nevadans they claim to want to represent?
Just remember this – people willing to lie, cheat, or steal in order to get power will lie, cheat and steal once they’re in power. Even if you find Paul’s platform compelling, after this there’s no way you could trust he’d follow through with any of it.
Now here's the thing: This was never really a well kept secret. In fact, this was NOT a secret at all. Back in February, Rachel Maddow actually interviewed Ron Paul campaign senior advisor Doug Wead and had him explain on national TV what their campaign is doing.
The only thing that surprises me about this is that it took Nevada GOP insiders and Mitt Romney operatives this long to realize what's been happening under their noses all along. So not only does Mitt Romney's campaign have to worry about loose cannons raising hell instead of money for the Nevada Republican Party, but they now risk a major embarrassment next month in Sparks if Ron Paul operatives actually succeed in hijacking the convention. Remember, they already took over the Clark County Republican Party at its convention last month. Is the state party next (again)? And will Nevada's Republican National Convention delegation be delivering an unwelcome surprise to Tampa this summer?
We're not even 2/3 of the way through February, and it already looks like this month is by far the "WORST. MONTH. EVER!" for Nevada Republicans. Let's review what has happened so far:
- The much ballyhooed Presidential Caucus descended into pure madness on the 4th, as results were extremely slow to be released... And while they were being released, one more caucus turned fracas when a number of caucus-goers were turned away for not signing a religious waiver (though that didn't stop Ron Paul from winning that caucus anyway).
- And then on the following Monday, we finally saw the final caucus results... And we found out that GOP caucus turnout actually plummeted 26% from 2008 levels despite this one supposedly being more hotly contested than 2008.
- And then, there was the ultimate insult to injury. The Nevada GOP jumped through so many RNC hoops to be seen as "legitimate", only for the national media to mock them... And only for their anointed "winner", Willard "Mr. 1%" Romney, to be derailed by "Frothy" Ricky Santorum's 3-for-3 wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Those were "not supposed to count", but they ended up rendering the political ripple effects of the Nevada GOP Caucus null and void.
Some pundits are reporters now wondering just how bad it's become for Nevada Republicans. Their chances of winning back the Nevada State Senate are dwindling thanks to the SD 15 development and Halseth's resignation. Their dreams of a near sweep of the Congressional races have been dashed. And their chances of being big players on the national political stage are long gone.
So why is Chuck Muth so giddy? He seems to think that somehow Sheila Leslie running in SD 15 improves Republican chances of taking the Nevada Assembly. And sorry, but I have a hard time seeing that. Yes, Skip Daly is facing trouble in the new AD 31... But we already knew that. And in fact since Teresa Benitez-Thompson will be running in a new AD 27 that's nested into SD 15, I'm actually feeling more confident that increased Democratic turnout for Sheila Leslie will also reelect Benitez-Thompson. Just because Debbie Smith is running for the new SD 13 (which is a safe Dem district, mind you) doesn't mean "Democrat dominoes are falling" anywhere in Washoe County.
However, there's another reason why Chuck Muth is so giddy... And I actually think we should take this seriously. Look at the Nevada GOP's ongoing change of leadership. First Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) took over as Senate Republican Caucus leader, then Pat Hickey (R-Reno) took charge of the Assembly Republican Caucus, and now there's a strong possibility of former Las Vegas City Council Member Michael McDonald taking over the Nevada Republican Party. When Muth waxes poetic about "conservative, bare-knuckle fighter[s]", then he's excited about the Nevada GOP going even more in the G-O-TEA direction of becoming willing to fight "death matches" in government to score ideological points.
And yes, expect this kind of brutality to affect the campaign trail this year as well. They will most definitely be playing to win. But even if they can't win, they intend to lose in the ugliest way possible.
So I'd caution progressives not to get too giddy over the G-O-TEA mayhem right now. Yes, I still believe they're setting themselves up for disaster in November... But they will still be willing to scrap out any wins they can get down ballot just for the sake of obstructing any attempts at progress on progressive tax reform and rebuilding of Nevada's public infrastructure next year.
Just as we're seeing on the national level with Romney and Santorum duking it out for the title of "Great Tea Party Slayer of the Evil Socialist Barack Obama Dragon" while tacking farther and farther to the radical right, this new crop of Nevada Republican leadership may be even more willing to fulfill the craziest of "tea party" wet dreams and fight a "scorched earth" campaign against both Democrats and (relative) moderates in their own party. They may be far out of the mainstream here in Nevada, but that won't stop them from becoming a big roadblock in both Nevada government and the federal government.
So enjoy a chuckle or two now, but be prepared to not just vote this fall, but ensure all your friends, family, and neighbors know about the consequences of "tea party" fueled obstruction. Remember, all Muth & Co. need are at least 15 Assembly Members and 8 Senators to continue ripping apart Nevada's schools while protecting "billionaire bailouts" in our tax code. And all Muth & Co. need are Senator Heller and a couple House Republicans to keep Washington dysfunctional.
Nevada Republicans may be down, but don't count out their ability to wreak more havoc on government just yet.
It's still unclear how he can really compete against all of Mittens' money as the contest turns to "Super Tuesday". But then again, it's unclear how Mittens can keep proclaiming himself "The Inevitable One" while continuing to lose in critical states. Steve Kornacki reminded us earlier this morning that despite what Mittens wants us to believe, what happened last night matters.
Romney’s campaign knew trouble was coming, which is why they started Tuesday by releasing an expectations-lowering memo that pointed out that John McCain lost 19 individual contests in the 2008 race and emphasized the long game. And they hoped that the fact that no delegates were directly at stake in any contests would lead the media to downplay the results.
But the delegate situation was mostly a red herring. Really, there was no difference between the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and those that were held in Iowa on Jan. 3. In all three states, Republicans gathered at precinct caucuses that officially functioned as the first in a multi-step process to choose national convention delegates. At the local caucuses, Republicans were polled on their presidential preference, with the results not tied to delegate allocation. So if the political world is going to treat Iowa as a legitimate nominating contest, there’s no reason not to extend the same treatment to Colorado and Minnesota.
And while Missouri’s primary truly was a beauty contest (no delegates of any type were selected or allocated), 250,000 Republicans voters still turned out for it. That number is considerably lower than the 2008 total, but it still represents a significant statement by that state’s Republican electorate, especially when you consider that Romney only mustered a quarter of the vote without one of his chief foes on the ballot. [...]
February was supposed to be a cruise control month for Romney – a series of effortless, momentum-building victories that would marginalize his opponents and lead to one emphatic, nomination-sealing sweep on Super Tuesday. Instead, he now faces a real challenge just to make it through the rest of the month, which will include contests in Michigan and Arizona, without any more embarrassments. And the prospect of further setbacks in early March, when Ohio and several Southern states that are culturally ill-suited to Romney will vote, now seems likely.
What’s worse for Romney is that Santorum may get such a boost out of his big night that he further marginalizes Gingrich and gets the one-on-one shot at Romney that he’s long coveted. In this sense, the Missouri result may actually be meaningful; Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot, but it seems that his would-have-been supporters flocked to Santorum. If Gingrich fades out now and Santorum claims the lion’s share of his voters, he could do some real damage – maybe even this month. The flip side, of course, is that Santorum will now experience what Gingrich has faced for the past few weeks: a withering and well-funded assault from the Romney campaign.
Think about it. Nevada Republicans tried their best to put on a glitzy show for the RNC and national media. They staged a big conference in October, one that included a big debate. Yet as soon as they succumbed to "The Great RNC Cave of 2011", which was right after that big conference and big debate, the media stopped caring and the RNC went back to bashing President Obama from DC.
And even as Mittens was basking in the radioactive glow of his Nevada "win", Ricky went on to campaign in "the meaningless states"... And now, "the meaningless states" have upstaged the Nevada G-O-TEA and captured the media's attention.
Great job, Nevada Republicans. You botched your own caucus. You're now begging "Big Government" for a "socialist" state-run primary bailout. And now, a bunch of supposedly "meaningless beauty contests" are getting more attention than your meaningless "fracas caucus" fiasco ever will.
Cheese, louise. Just when we couldn't get enough political drama today, we get three more G-O-TEA contests to digest. Check here for updates on the vote counts and delegate counts. Apparently, tonight may finally be "Frothy" Ricky Santorum's night. After he nearly got Iowa robbed from him, Santorum may finally get some real momentum if he wins the Minnesota Caucus, wins the Missouri Primary (which may do nothing for his delegate count, as it's only a "beauty contest", but at least it can give him bragging rights), and at least finishes a strong second in Colorado (preferably well enough to keep Mitt Romney well under 50%).
As usual, I'll be here to liveblog all the craziness here with you. And of course, we'll debunk whatever stupid media spin occurs and fact check any fact-free rants made by the G-O-TEA candidates in their "victory speeches" later tonight.
6:10 PM-
Well, at least Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri will have a ridiculously easy "credibility bar" to pass tonight... Or will they? Because all these states had problems with the new RNC primary/caucus rules, none of the contests tonight will actually (at least directly) determine delegate allocation. Yikes. But before we gloat too much about this, just look at what happened to Nevada Republicans. And now, they want the state to bail them out! And of course, this also means they want "we the people/taxpayers" to bail them out! And I thought Nevada Republicans were against "socialism"?
6:25 PM-
So far in early returns, "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is running away with Minnesota and Missouri. Can Mittens catch up? And again, does it really matter? With exactly 0 delegates actually at stake tonight, Willard Romney's campaign will certainly try to spin tonight's results as "meaningless". Will Ricky be able to convince the media pundits to think otherwise?
6:45 PM-
NBC News just projected a Santorum win in Missouri. Congrats, "Frothy". So far, things are looking up for him. He's also leading in Minnesota right now, and he's even leading in very early returns in Colorado (!!!) right now. I guess tonight just isn't Mittens' lucky night. Good thing for him that no actual delegates are at stake tonight.
The word coming from the Mitt campaign is that Missouri doesn’t really matter because there are no delegates there and they didn’t commit time or money. The problem, though, is that Santorum doesn’t really have any time or money to commit there either. And if you’re the frontrunner, the presumed nominee, you get clobbered in a swing state just because you didn’t aggressively campaign there? That’s a very, very low standard. Santorum is clearly leaning hard on evangelicals. And really this isn’t about Santorum. It’s about Romney. Absent crushing spending and a week or so to focus on a single state, Romney seems to have a really rough time. That’s bad, especially in the Midwest where a Republican candidate has to run strong. And especially when he’s faltering in national polls versus President Obama.
We've talked about it before, and I guess we'll have to talk about it yet again tonight. If Mittens is so "inevitable", then why can't he win here? And why won't Republican voters actually turn out to confirm him as their nominee? Clearly, Mitt Romney is still not all that popular with his own party right now. And we're seeing that on full display tonight.
7:20 PM-
NBC News just projected Rick Santorum to win Minnesota. He's been up in early tallies, and apparently his lead has become too big for the others to overcome. And now, supposed "inevitable" one Mitt Romney is in third place there. Yikes.
Again, don't be surprised to hear Romney's campaign spin this as "meaningless". But when he can't win these states and start wrapping up this process, especially considering he's the one with the "top of the line" campaign and top of the field fundraising, there's a real problem in G-O-TEA World.
8:00 PM-
Oh, lordy help us. "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is now doing his "victory lap". And he's already resorting to the desperate G-O-TEA character assassination against President Obama. Oh yes, he's the evil, "uppity" black guy who thinks he can rule over the po' lil' white folk!
Oooh, and he won't listen to the po' lil' white teabaggers who want to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!"
Give me a fucking break, "Frothy"! Oh yes, and WHEN I finally do get gay married, I'll be sending you an invitation... Just to chap your hide, you bigoted jackass!
8:35 PM-
OK. This is just ridiculous. Santorum flat out rejects sound science, rejects basic human dignity, and flat out rejects sanity. And yet, Republicans tonight seem to be rejecting lukewarm Mittens to get some of that real Santorum tonight.
OK, let's do a show of hands for who watched Ralston last night. Come on. Hands up, everyone! (In case you actually didn't, here it is below.)
The Nevada G-O-TEA obviously still has a whole lot of questions to answer after this fiasco. How did their turnout actually drop a full 26% and 11,000+ voters from 2008? Why was it so difficult and painfully long to count fewer than 33,000 ballots? Who made the decision to require attendees at the Saturday night "Adelson School Campus" in Summerlin to sign a religious waiver in order to caucus?
Clearly, their whole strategy involved wishing and hoping and praying that:
1. The candidates gin up enough enthusiasm to bump up turnout.
2. Blind, crazed hatred of President Obama also does its part to rally the teabaggers to the caucus sites.
3. All that anti-Obama sentiment also rubs off on independents, and pushes them to go Republican.
4. The county parties know what to do once the caucuses start.
And clearly, nothing that they wished and hoped and prayed for came to fruition. The Republican campaigns didn't want to do party building for the state party. And particularly down south, the Clark County GOP just couldn't get it together.
And then, there's Obama. For 3 years now, Republicans have been trying to sell America on our supposed "failure" under President Obama. They've been painting this scene of destitution and despair. Oh yes, and they've been quite heavy on the malaise. Whenever one hears these G-O-TEA candidates speak, one gets the sense that they're speaking of an "America in decline", a once great superpower that's now being hobbled by those "REDS!!!" in China and "The Eurozone". Let's face it, the entire Republican plan for victory has been predicated on Obama's AND America's failure.
The flap over the ad confirms the GOP’s serious branding problem: The problem for Rove and the rest of the GOP is that their party’s narrative has become relentlessly negative, pessimistic and uninspiring. They’ve left the language of optimism and resilience, higher ground and common ground, to the Democrats, and lately President Obama has grabbed every opportunity to employ that language. [...]
Karl Rove is angry because he sees the numbers, too, and he’s got to explain them away with dark allusions to “Chicago politics.” But the fact is the president saved the auto industry at a time when Republicans, most notably Mitt Romney, urged him to let it die. If he gets credit for that unpopular decision, that’s because he deserves it.
And if Clint Eastwood sounds like a Democrat when he talks about American ingenuity and optimism, that’s because increasingly it’s Democrats who sound that way – and Republicans who don’t. Ronald Reagan co-opted buoyancy and hopefulness for a generation, painting Democrats from Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis through Al Gore and John Kerry (with a break for Bill Clinton) as Negative Nellies, whiners and complainers always finding fault with America.
Now it’s Republicans who bad-mouth the American people, warning that lax morals and laziness are behind the problems of the poor and working class (including whites), and who paint scary dystopic pictures of America under its Kenyan anti-colonialist socialist black president. Karl Rove’s hissy fit over the Chrysler ad underscores exactly how bleak his party’s vision has become.
Listen to the likes of Dean Heller & Joe Heck preaching "AUSTERITY!!!", and it sounds like they're ready to not just rip apart our social safety net, but also give up on the American tradition of investment in innovation that's made us great. And listen to the actual "tea partiers" at the local "tea party" gatherings around the state, and it sounds like America's already been declared some sort of failed state. Funny enough, for all the Republicans' longing for "Ronald Reagan like optimism", they're now the ones pushing the negative "Blame America(ns) First" attitude that Reagan so hated.
Funny enough, this is something you won't hear Ralston and the Nevada G-O-TEA bosses discuss. Yes, obviously the party had plenty of logistical problems that led to so much mayhem. However, there's an even deeper problem with Republicans everywhere that I suspect is causing the lower turnout in Nevada, and in other states. Americans are by nature an optimistic people. We want to root for success, and we want to cheer on success once we start to see it. But in all their negative campaigning, the Republican campaigns have not just been bashing President Obama, but they've also essentially been cheering on America's failure. And really, who gets excited over all this talk of failure?
Frankly, Joan Walsh is right that this is problem we on the left faced in the past. When the likes of Walter Mondale and John Kerry rambled on about everything that was wrong in America, many Americans just wanted to tune them out. But now, it feels like the roles have genuinely reversed. President Obama has the quintessential story of American Exceptionalism, and he's offering a positive vision of American success that we see working. Yet while Obama gives us reason to believe in American success, all the Republicans talk about is how we've supposedly failed. And since actions speak louder than words, what their G-O-TEA friends in Congress are doing looks even worse. Again, why would voters want to embrace their vision of a failed state in need of being restarted from scratch?
So now we can see why some Nevadans probably decided that a day on the ski slopes or a day preparing for "The Big Game" was more worthwhile than the Nevada Republican Caucus. Not only couldn't the party get the process right, but the party no longer wants to celebrate what's right about America. The days of them supposedly having a "lock on patriotism" are clearly long gone.
“It didn’t need to happen this way. With more planning, more process — more space for observers ... people being in close quarters added to the tension,” said Carl Bunce, Paul’s Nevada campaign director. “A couple of changes and you won’t have national staffers breathing down the necks of county people. Cause we’re in different worlds.”
Republican Party officials held a tense meeting with lawyers from each of the presidential campaigns early Sunday. Uneasy campaign officials gave the county party room to continue counting before issuing public comments on the process.
But as the counting stretched past the 24-hour mark, political reporters from around the nation mocked Nevada’s inability to quickly finalize its results.
“The biggest loser in Nevada’s Republican caucuses? The state’s feckless GOP,” wrote Politico.
The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza tweeted: “Nevada not helping their case to hump further up in calendar with this sloooooow count.”
Even some of the volunteers counting ballots seemed to be aware that Nevada’s political stock was sinking as the count dragged on.
And of course, this whole fiasco over the actual vote count isn't helping Nevada Republicans, either. How else can one explain their sudden embrace of "BIG GOVERNMENT SOCIALISM!!!" as they start making noise over switching back to a state run primary?
Well, at least we now know the big winner of Nevada's Republican Caucus: President Obama.
OK, I just can't help it. And frankly, I think I have to bring this up again... Especially since Clark County GOP boss Dave Gibbs actually said his caucuses were "not an election". Just as many of us were suspecting all along, the Nevada G-O-TEA's last minute decision to placate their #1 Mr. Moneybags, Sheldon Adelson, hold an evening caucus at the Adelson Educational Campus in Summerlin is now causing a whole lot of controversy... And possibly future legal headaches, as well.
Michael Dicicco, 23 and a Paul supporter, said he was unable to attend the morning caucus because he was working and came out to the Adelson school after receiving a call from the Paul campaign.
"I thought this was a second opportunity to vote," said Dicicco, who was turned away after refusing to sign the declaration. "I don't understand why I wouldn't be able to vote if I'm not Jewish." [...]
Metro Police were called to remove Stephen Melancon, who was obstructing the entrance while trying to question a Clark County GOP official about the declaration.
Melancon, a high school teacher who said he was a Republican delegate in the 2008 elections, missed the morning caucus because he had to cover a shift at an adult mental health group home where he also works, he said.
"It makes the whole thing a sham," he said of the declaration. "It bothers me that in a process like this they're requiring people to lie (in order to caucus). I didn't come here to do anything other than cast my vote for Ron Paul."
Even some who were attending the evening caucus because they had been honoring the Sabbath were uncomfortable with the form.
"I don't think it's any of their business why I'm here," said Donna Fisher, who is Jewish. "They should just be glad I'm out here to vote."
The Nevada Republican Party required all Adelson Campus caucus-goers to first sign a declaration stating that they couldn't participate at their regularly scheduled neighborhood caucus due to religious reasons. Yes. That's right. You read me right. These caucus-goers essentially had to sign a pledge addressing their religious beliefs in order to vote.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if federal election laws were violated last night. And no, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of those angry caucus-goers is on the phone with an election law attorney right now. This is about to get awfully ugly.
Nevada GOP dealing with “trouble box” of questionable ballots
And if that wasn't bad enough, there's even more explosive material in the actual story!
Party officials have confirmed that ballots in multiple precincts exceeded the number of voters who signed in. The “trouble box” also includes ballots on which two candidates were marked and other irregularities.
David Gallagher, executive director of the state party, could not confirm or even give a rough estimate of the number of ballots in question.
“It’s a small number,” he said.
Party officials spent much of the morning in a closed-door meeting with campaign officials to discuss the process for counting the ballots and determine what to do with the ballot box.
A procedure for dealing with the “trouble box” will be agreed upon by party and campaign officials, Gallagher said. He and other party officials acknowledged that some of the precincts may be “thrown out.”
“Obviously we want to count as many ballots as possible,” Gallagher said. “We want people’s voices to be heard.”
And apparently, the chaos wasn't limited to Clark County. There were problems up north as well.
And again, this is leading to talk of making Nevada a primary state (again). After all, if we're supposed to believe Dave Gibbs of the Clark County GOP, "This is NOT an election. This is a caucus." Well, guess what, Dave Gibbs? Nevada voters want an election, not a chaotic hot mess and farcical fracas of a "caucus".
Dave Gibbs may sound cruel, but maybe he has a point. This really doesn't look like an election... And that's the problem here. It's looking increasingly clear that people trying to caucus at the Adelson School in Summerlin last night were disenfranchised. And if Clark County Republicans just throw out ballots despite promising voters (who suffered "caucus irregularities" like not being given official ballots) that their ballots would be counted, then even more Nevada Republican voters will be disenfranchised.
Oh, and it wasn't just the "East Coast Big Media Elite" that snickered as the local G-O-TEA faltered. Their "Left Coast"West Coast colleagues were also appalled.
Sure, Ron Paul's fanatical band of fringe followers are harping on this issue and already crying foul. But you know what? Those "crazy Ron Paul people" may be right about this. Sure, they're wrong about all their other wackadoodle conspiracy theories involving everything from the gold standard to JFK's assassination to "the illuminati" to the "9/11 inside job" to raw milk. But when it comes to the Nevada G-O-TEA flagrantly violating voters' rights, putting up these ridiculous barricades to voter participation, and doing nothing to reassure Nevadans that the vote count they're releasing is honest and accurate, the "crazy Ron Paul people" may ultimately prove to be right on the money.
If this is "not an election", then why do we allow this to happen?
The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters in Washoe County on Saturday, party officials reported, down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 Washoe County Republicans who showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008.
This year’s turnout amount amounted to about 8 percent of all registered Republicans in the county.
“I think part of it people just don’t like the caucus process,” said David Buell, the chairman of the Washoe County Republican Party.
The disorganization of four years ago, marked by long lines and crowded polling locations, may have discouraged some voters from coming Saturday, Buell added.
“I know a lot of people stayed home and said I’m not going through that process again,” he said, something that has resulted in many Republicans asking for a state-run primary instead of the party-run caucus system. That change would need to be adopted by the Legislature.
Wow. I guess when Republicans get embarrassed this badly, they start embracing "SOE-SHUL-IZMM!!!!!"
And you know what should embarrass them even more? They just crowned this guy as the winner.
Yes, Nevada Republicans really picked this guy as their "winner".
Mitt Romney should fire everyone on his campaign staff and hire me. I have the solution to all of his problems: a muzzle.
Seriously, in an election season where 3/4 of the country are pissed off at the banks, and the rich in general, for having too much power and influence over our government, just about anything Mitt Romney says is going go over like a lead balloon.
Following up on his infamous “Corporations are people, my friend” gaffe, Mitt Romney has sealed his reputation as part of the 1% by stating that “the banks aren’t bad people.” Yes, the man definitely needs a muzzle. And maybe one of those electric shock collars as well.
Well, I guess we can't fault them too much, since they actually bothered to show up. Obviously, a whole lot of other Nevada Republicans didn't. I guess it was more important to ski, or perhaps to spend a little extra time preparing for the Super Bowl "Big Game" Party. (Seriously, folks, democratic participation IS important... So it's still at least a little saddening to see this caucus flop so badly.)
Mitt said he could fix the economy that Obama ruined. He said the improved unemployment numbers are not real because they just reflect that people stopped looking for work. Pay attention to this one because it’s viral. The truth is that private sector job growth has grown under Obama more than it has since Reagan, and those numbers can’t be gotten around no matter how many times they utter “but no one is looking for work anymore.”
At any rate, Mitt has no solution for fixing the economy other than assuring us that as businessman (who dismantled companies and shuttled his profits offshore), he knows how to do it. A pause while Americans wonder if they want to be one of Bain’s mom and pops that get taken apart and sold off in bits so that Romney can add another 100 million to his Swiss account.
Romney went on about Nevada’s troubles and never mentioned that they were a direct result and perfect example of lawless vulture capitalism. He blamed Obama for their unemployment rates and never said a word about why their homes were in foreclosure or who got rich off of their misery. He avoided mentioning the fact that the recession started in 2007 and the housing market collapsed soon after. It’s hard to see how Obama can be blamed for that or how it’s Obama’s fault that Romney stands for the same exact deregulation that created the housing bubble that led to the bubble burst.
Mitt lied about Solyndra, lied about healthcare reform, promised to repeal “Obama Care”, lied about the economy (was caught earlier saying it was great but now it sucks), lied about the private sector….Mitt lied. [...]
Romney wants to be President so badly that he is willing to sell out to the lowest common denominator. A man who could have at the very least stood for manners and decorum – a measure of civility – now stands for absolutely nothing.
And to boot, Mitt blew his hate wad way too early. We can see from his speech tonight that he plans on running against Barack X, the fictional Barack Obama, as Bill Maher so brilliantly put it last week. Mitt Romney plans on running against the economic failure and weak on defense Obama. You know, the guy who only exists on Fox News.
And finally, we've learned that Nevada's Republican Caucus really did turn out to be irrelevant in the whole process. Despite what happened last night, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and Ron Paul all vow to press on. And despite what happened last night, Mittens remains in his precarious position as "kinda-sorta-frontrunner-who-seems-inevitable-but-still-looks-weak". Great job, Nevada G-O-TEA. "The Great Cave of 2011" will keep coming back to haunt them.
And this whole fiasco of a caucus will keep coming back to haunt Nevada Republicans as they sow the seeds of their own defeat later this year.
OK, time for a new thread! Let's get started (all over again).
And now, we're finally starting to get real results. Right now, it's neck and neck between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich... But that's just Eureka County. Apparently, it may also be close in Carson City. But of course, we already have a good idea of what to expect in the rest of the state...
Apparently, CNN figured out that all the rest of us were already seeing the caucus results live on Twitter. Heh. They're now estimating Romney's win at about 54% of the vote, with Ron Paul edging out Newt Gingrich for second place. They're now claiming these numbers are "exclusively CNN's!!!"... And ignoring that we already saw all of this on Twitter this morning.
Sorry, CNN... But you FAIL!
5:35 PM-
And now, we're getting more rural numbers. Newt Gingrich narrowly won Mineral County while Ron Paul snatched a big win in Nye County. However while we're still waiting for Clark County, Romney just has to wait and sit pretty.
Voss' tone shifted seamlessly between playful and angry. He is not an ideologue. He's worried about the deficit and the housing market, particularly in his home state. He acknowledges that Romney's desire to see the foreclosure crisis play itself out isn't exactly his cup of tea. He wants the banks to feel more pressure to restructure loans and he thinks Obama hasn't done enough on that front.
"Smaller banks are being pushed out of business," he said. "You can't favor big banks."
Voss believes that the country faces a potentially cataclysmic budget crisis, but there are some cuts he thinks go too far. A 22-year veteran, he doesn't want military spending levels tweaked. He also wants his pension protected. Pressed a bit more about his animus toward the president, he concedes that what Obama inherited from President George W. Bush wasn't all that pretty.
"I don't think [John] McCain could have done that much better," he said. But that's hardly an excuse for staying the course. "We need someone to blow things up."
Nicole McGreary, another Henderson resident, wants Romney to essentially blow things up as well. And unlike a large portion of the Republican Party, she is deeply enthused about his candidacy, considering him both virtuous -- "What personal agenda would he personally have other than to see the country prosper?" -- and ideal for the times. Asked what it would take her to switch her allegiance over to Obama, she can only summon one scenario.
"He would have to move to some other country for me to consider voting for him," she said.
Like Voss, McGreary is tough to pigeonhole. She doesn't like being called a "conservative," because of the implication that she might be a member of the religious right. She believes in gay marriage and said she thinks it's fine for states, not the federal government, to legalize abortion. Her disdain for the president is tied to his health care law and his energy policy -- from his administration's support for Solyndra, the failed solar energy company that received federal loans, to its opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline.
Mostly, however, it's about Obama's personality.
"I believe he is a liar," she said. "He contradicts himself time after time."
They really are motivated by hatred. How else can one explain how these folks, who don't consider themselves radical right, are supporting the radical right G-O-TEA? This is the one ugly tool the G-O-TEA has left to distract voters from what's really happening and try to siphon otherwise moderate voters away from Democrats. However, I'm still hopeful that this can only take them so far. Not everyone is that motivated by blind hatred.
Hey, this is just a reminder of what kind of crap the G-O-TEA will be throwing at us in the general election. And hey, they have to resort to crap. After all, their "enthusiasm gap" problem continues to worsen. Washoe GOP turnout was indeed below 7,000 today, so they'll have to stoop to new lows to try to revive their sagging fortunes.
Hey, #NV #TeaParty, if Sharon Angle couldn't beat Harry Reid, what makes you think @MittRomney can beat #Obama? #NVCaucus #tcot #tpn
Funny enough, he unintentionally pointed out the greatest weakness of Nevada Republicans. Ever since 2008, they've been obsessing over ideological purity instead of even attempting to show any real interest in governing. We saw it in 2010, when they embraced extremism and tried to shove the most radical US Senate candidate we've ever seen down our throats. And we saw it again last year, when they were more interested in playing political games than solving our state's problems. It's really all about their radical "tea party" ideology for them. And by making Mitt Romney embrace it, they're only sowing the seeds of their own defeat this fall.
Here's what I'm talking about. Thank you, Kevin Drum.
Alas, poor Mitt. Now he knows what it feels like to be Barack Obama. For the past two years Obama has basically been forced to say that, sure, the economy is bad, but it would have been even worse without his policies in place. That might be true or it might not, but it's sure not a vote getter.
Now Romney's on the other end of that argument. Sure, the economy is getting better, but it would be even better still without Obama's policies. Again, maybe that's true and maybe it's not, but no one cares. If the economy is getting better, then people are happy and they're going to vote for the guy in the White House. Romney had better figure out something better than that if he wants to have any chance of victory in November.
Mitt Romney's whole strategy has been to bet on a bad economy. He sincerely thought he could get away with all his ideological flip-flops and pretzel twists by blaming the horrible economy on President Obama. But now that he's on record veering so far to the radical right, and now that the economy is not horrible and is improving, he has nothing left to run on. Seriously, what's the point of Romney's campaign? That's why tonight's "win" is so hollow.
7:50 PM-
Mittens is now speaking. And as usual, he's rehashing the usual "Obama is EVIL!!!" bullshit. Again, that's all he has left. He's trashing and bashing Obama because that's all he has to rev up his new radical right BFFs, and he's trashing and bashing Obama in hopes of distracting the rest of us from what's really happening.
Wow. Just wow. MSNBC is abandoning Nevada GOP Caucus coverage... For "Lockup"! How pathetic. Sure, there's a problem with MSNBC trying to maintain journalistic standards while continuing to dip into the "reality freak show" pond. However, there's also a clear problem in the Nevada GOP Caucus becoming such a ridiculous farce that hardly anyone cares any more.
Again, congratulations are in order for the Nevada G-O-TEA for producing such a bombastically irrelevant event.
Oh, and speaking of bombastically irrelevant... Check out Molly Ball's tweets of the hilarious Adelson School Night Caucus! Apparently, the Ron Paul fans are really turning up the crazy with all sorts of wild conspiracy theories. Heh. And everyone thought this was supposed to stuff the ballot box for Newt Gingrich?
Oh, jeez. I may have to stay up longer to follow this some more! :-D
One reporter asked Gingrich about his absence from reporters for a few days, while he was reportedly meeting with donors.
"Did you miss me?" Gingrich answered with a clear note of sarcasm. "Okay, I was worried that you may not have noticed."
He then explained why he was working on strategy. "Well we got together for a very practical reason. I was surprised by the degree to which the establishment has closed ranks, and made quite clear that they're desperate over the prospect of a Gingrich presidency. I was amazed by George Soros saying in Davos that he was happy with either Obama or Romney, because it was not a difference of policy, it was just a change in personality."
He then explained that he and his campaign concluded that the establishment would go all out to defeat him, with Wall Street money and other resources — but that the people would not go along.
"Do they want two George Soros-approved candidates in the general election, or do they want a conservative, and one George Soros-approved candidate?"
Whoa. Newton is going there. Is he now auditioning for a reality show?
Newt Gingrich took questions from reporters in Las Vegas, following Mitt Romney's big victory in the Nevada caucuses. One reporter asked, can he successfully go forward if Mitt Romney is as much in his head as he has been tonight and for the last few days? Newt then shot back at the reporter's ability to read his thoughts.
"Well first of all, I'm not sure that Mitt Romney's in my head," said Gingrich. "I mean, I think that's an interesting analysis on your part. And I'm sure that with a psychiatric degree, that will get a tremendous opportunity to have new clients.
I think there's a clear contrast. I think that the clear contrast is really important. And I think that over time we're going to drive that clear contrast in a way that is to his disadvantage."
Crazy!
8:55 PM-
And now, Nevada Caucus Season is finally coming to an end. The campaign is leaving us as we speak... For now. But of course, the fun and games will be back in full force for the general election.
But if the president is presiding over an economy that voters believe is improving, the magic vanishes. Which explains the awkwardness the Romney campaign faced this morning, when the most encouraging jobs report of Obama’s presidency was released. With a net increase of 243,000 jobs in January, the unemployment rate is now down to 8.3 percent, marking the fifth straight month it fell and bringing it to its lowest level since Obama’s first full month in office.
Faced with such obviously good economic news, the Romney team took its time responding, first churning out a press release on an unrelated topic (“President Obama’s attack on religious liberty”) then finally putting out a statement that read in part: “We welcome the fact that jobs were created and unemployment declined. Unfortunately, these numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama’s policies have prevented a true economic recovery. We can do better.” A series of negative economic statistics then followed.
Besides the acknowledgement that “jobs were created,” the statement was no different than anything Romney has been saying for the entire campaign. But juxtaposed against the big news of the morning, it read as petty, and almost absurdly comical. If — and, to be clear, it’s a very big if — the good economic news continues in the months ahead, Romney’s rhetoric will only fall flatter.
Again, this takes us back to why Mittens and the Nevada G-O-TEA leaders are trying so desperately to spin what happened today. They have to try to make it all some morbid Obama hate-fest. Otherwise, we'd all focus on this EPIC FAIL of caucus organization.
9:30 PM-
And on this note, I'm ending the liveblogging for tonight. Keep checking here for live updates throughout the night. I suspect it will go even longer. I'll be back tomorrow morning to wrap it all up.
Now ABC News' entrance poll is confirming what NYT found earlier, which is that LDS turnout is slightly up to 26% of total Republican caucus-goers. Sorry, Newton. Mittens is getting a big win tonight... Even if the entire G-O-TEA will later live to regret it.
But of course, to be fair, Mittens is also dominating in almost every demographic group. Only poorer GOP voters (Whoa! You mean there are some left?) and young (under 30) GOP voters opted for Ron Paul over Mitt Romney according to CNN's entrance poll.
Meanwhile out there in Beltway-ville, there's an interesting diary in Washington Monthly's blog on what to possibly expect in the general election. While there have been plenty of comparisons to more recent election cycles (1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, and 1996), are Republicans about to repeat their mistakes made in 1940? Again, this is why I suspect Mitt Romney's likely "impressive victory" is really more of a pyrrhic victory. As we talked about on Wednesday, as Mittens moves further and further toward the radical right, he's turning off voters in the middle and looking even more out-of-touch as "Mr. 1%". Maybe teabaggers are digging it, but all the rest of us aren't.
Meanwhile in the real world, local AP reporter Cristina Silva actually received word from the Washoe County Republican Party that turnout was down from 2008 "partly because people wanted to ski". Wait... HUH??!! So are they admitting that a day on the snowy slopes is more exciting than spending a day at the local G-O-TEA caucus? Are they admitting that their caucuses are so pointless that Northern Nevadans decided their time was better spent skiing?
Again, Nevada Republicans are doing a fantastic job losing this next election all on their own! :-D
Again, this may prove to be another pyrrhic victory for Mittens.
Meanwhile, "Frothy" Ricky Santorum is avoiding us entirely as he now does events in Colorado. Wait... Colorado? Seriously? When voting hasn't even ended yet here in Nevada? I guess "The Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Effect" really did nothing to boost him.
Oh, and here's another confirmation from Karen Griffin at KRNV (NBC 4 Reno) that Republican turnout today was horrible. Expectations were made for 15-16,000 caucus-goers in Washoe County, but apparently they couldn't even muster turnout of 7,000. Yikes! So much for all that "tea party enthusiasm"!
Is this for real? Did the Nevada Republican Party really just send an email reminding people to caucus? Ummm... Nearly all the caucuses are OVER! The only one left tonight is the special "religious objections" caucus that Sheldon Adelson muscled onto the schedule is only open to those with an absent note who couldn't attend the other caucuses for religious reasons. Again, that final caucus is closed to the vast majority of Nevadans... So why did they send that email?
I had gone Saturday morning to a community center at Sun City Anthem, where I’d interviewed voters during previous elections. A hub for an age-restricted community of mostly retirees, the building was so packed that one precinct had been moved into the lobby.
I chose at random precinct 1721, where voters had crammed into a small, stuffy room. It wasn’t much of a secret that I was a reporter: I wore a press badge issued by the Clark County GOP around my neck and was scribbling on a yellow notepad the size of a hardcover book.
After about 10 speakers touted their presidential favorites – most of them backed Mitt Romney – the caucus chairwoman, whose name I didn’t catch, announced that no reporters were allowed in the room. The voters sitting near me, who knew I was a reporter, called out that I was taking notes.
The caucus chair, who was standing at the front of the room, repeated: No. Press. Allowed. I said that wasn’t true and held up my press pass.
The chair asked who I was.
“Ashley Powers from the Los Angeles Times.” [...]
“Spy! She’s a spy!” someone else said.
A woman waved a button at me, which said: DON’T BELIEVE THE LIBERAL MEDIA.
Tough crowd, I thought.
Then a man walked over to me and said if I didn’t leave, he’d call security. So I left the room while voters cast their ballots.
Yay! Horray for paranoid teabaggers! Voting isn't even finished yet, and the crazy has already been turned up to the max.
I know the TEA-nuts hate the media, but this may even be too much for Republicans. Thanks, Nevada G-O-TEA, for again embarrassing our state. We're officially becoming a national joke.
And the caucus is already turning into a real train wreck. In case that wasn't bad enough...
TPM is also reporting on what's been happening at GOP Caucuses today. Here's a dispatch from Durango HS in Spring Valley. Whoa. Apparently it wasn't quite as chaotic as Green Valley HS, but nonetheless the arguments got a little heated as the only thing that could gin up enthusiasm was shared animosity toward President Obama. Sad.
HA! It just keeps getting better... Or worse, if you're part of the Nevada G-O-TEA. Geoff Dornan was reporting on the Carson City GOP Caucus, and he noticed none other than Senator Dean Heller (R-Tea Party) there. Apparently he was invited up to the stage to speak... But once that happened, he had already left. Wow. Talk about real "enthusiasm" there!
Meanwhile, the latest #nvcaucus updates still suggest a blowout for Mittens. Now, it's just a matter of whether he'll finally cross the 50% threshold today. Oh, and we'll also find out soon if po' lil' (spoiled rich brat) Newton can even manage to pull into 2nd place.
And believe it or not, that article is quite flattering compared to this doozy from The LA Times. Congratulations, Nevada Republicans, once again for botching your own Caucus and making our state look even more foolish than we already were before your "Amateur League" politicking threw us off center stage.
3:00 PM-
OK, here's the last update before I open up Liveblog #2. The New York Times and CNN are already starting to report on their entrance polls. So far, LDS turnout is looking good... And may even be slightly higher than 2008 levels at 26% of the total electorate. Of course, the other reason for that may be that not too many other people actually turned out. CNN is now confirming what several observers were noting on Twitter this morning about overall low turnout throughout the state. If this holds up, then Nevada Republicans will be lucky if this year's turnout matches 2008 levels.
So even if/when Mitt Romney "wins" today, the numbers still aren't looking good for the G-O-TEA going into the general election.
OK, I'll take a short "sanity break" before I fire up the new results thread soon. Tonight should be fun. ;-)
- Mitt Romney will spin just about anything that happens tonight as a "hard won victory". Despite swamping our state with his ads (Have you seen Facebook lately? Channel 8? I-15?), outspending everyone else, and starting here with a natural built-in advantage from 2008, Mittens will want all of us to know he had to "work so hard" to win the caucus.
- Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich will be trying to spin any kind of 2nd place finish as a "stunning, come-from-behind victory". Guess who reemerged on MSNBC yesterday to spin this?
- Guess who's also reemerged from political obscurity? She's also back!
Oh yes, but not even Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron can save "Frothy" Ricky Santorum's faltering campaign. No wonder why he fled to Missouri last night.
- Oh, and then there's Ron Paul. Like Mittens, he will also be spinning anything as a "hard won victory".
Of course, all he cares about is the delegate count. As long as he keeps piling up delegates, Ron Paul can throw a temper tantrum before the convention and try to extract concessions from Republican leadership.
- And then we have the Nevada G-O-TEA itself. Can it manage to attract 100,000 people to caucus today? 50,000? Considering Mittens' already looking like the winner of today, and considering the good economic numbers President Obama can now bank on, will Nevadans be eager to caucus today? Oh yes, and since only registered Republicans can participate today, that also limits turnout.
