Sunday, August 3, 2014

The Numbers Don't Lie.

It's been a while since the last time we examined the voter registration numbers. But with another big election looming, we figured it's time to take a look at what's been happening lately.

Back in July 2012, Nevada Democrats had a 4.43% voter registration advantage (or around 47,500 raw votes). In July 2014, Nevada Democrats closed the month with a 64,983 raw vote lead. That means Nevada Democrats now have a 5.49% voter registration advantage.

For Clark County overall, Democrats now have a 13.29% advantage and 106,742 raw vote lead. In NV-03, Democrats now have a 1.1% advantage and 3,520 raw vote lead. And in NV-04 (overall, not just Clark County), Democrats now enjoy an 11.38% advantage and 33,546 raw vote lead.

And in case you were wondering about the hottest Nevada Legislature races of the year, here are the numbers to keep a close eye on. In the Summerlin South based State Senate District (SD 8), Republicans now have a mere 16 raw vote lead, which is so tiny that we have to go all the way to the thousandths to reach a percentage (0.003%). But in nearby SD 9 in the Southwest Vegas Valley, Democrats have jumped to a 3,628 raw vote lead, or a 6.53% registration advantage. And in the Henderson based SD 20, Republicans now stand at a mere 468 raw vote lead, or a 0.01% voter registration advantage.

Of course, the numbers can change some more in the next 10 weeks. The voter registration numbers certainly experienced some change during the final weeks of the 2012 cycle.

Early this year, some were wondering how Nevada Democrats could get their act together in a midterm year with no top of the ticket fireworks. Now, we have a better sense of how they may just pull it off. The numbers don't lie.

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