Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction, Part II

Yesterday, we took a fresh look at what's going on in a handful of critical Senate races this fall while also calling out a ridiculous election prediction from the local "newspaper". Today, our attention turns to the Assembly as we notice what's been happening since October. And yes, we'll again be noting why the "newspaper" got #NVLeg totally wrong.

So far all of the safe seats identified in October remain safe, so we'll save some time and only look at seats in play and/or likely to change hands. Here we go!

Clark County

AD 2
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

This will be the last time AD 2 is featured on this list, as Democrats failed to recruit anyone to run against John Hambrick. He gets a free ride back to Carson City, and Nevada Democrats blow a potential pick-up opportunity.

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Originally, it looked like Republicans would have a significant advantage in retaining this seat. However, plenty has changed since we last checked in October. For one, local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here.

So why am I upgrading this race to "Tossup" status? Simple. Local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here!



Thankfully for Nevada Democrats, they actually have a candidate running here. We'll have to see how serious Ken Evans' campaign is. But really, can any campaign involving Michelle Fiore be all that serious? If it weren't for the more conservative nature and slight GOP registration edge in this district, this would be an easy flip for Democrats. But even as is, Democrats have a better shot than ever before here.

AD 5
Las Vegas/Spring Valley- Peccole Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent Democratic Assembly Member Marilyn Dondero Loop remains one of the most endangered incumbents of this cycle simply because of the huge changes made to her district in redistricting. What had been a pretty safe Democratic West Side seat is now a thorny, swingy suburban district that Dondero Loop will most certainly have to work for to win again.

Now, it's just a question of how hard Bill Harrington and Nevada Republicans are willing to work to take this seat away from her.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Democrat Andrew Martin ran as an outsider for Assembly in 2008 in a more GOP leaning AD 13. However, he managed to shock most pundits by coming out of nowhere to get 49% against then incumbent Assembly Member Chad Christensen (R-Las Vegas). This time, he has the Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsement in a new Democratic leaning AD 9 comprising the once fast growing and now fast changing Southwest Vegas suburbs. And this time, the odds are much better for Martin to win.

Still, Andrew Martin must first clear the Democratic Primary. (Actually that shouldn't be too hard, since his primary opponent doesn't even have a web site.) Then, he'll be facing either Clayton Hurst or Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman in the general election. But again, considering the leftward shift of this district's politics in recent cycles, this shouldn't be too tough of a seat for Democrats to hold this year.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

Early on, it looked like James Ohrenschall might get a tough fight on his hands in the reconfigured AD 12. And while I still think it's a possibility, it's increasingly looking like a dwindling one. And with even the Assembly Republican Caucus ready to concede this race, this race may soon fall off the radar. Still, we'll keep a close eye on this one for now.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

The bad news for Nevada Democrats: This district shifted a bit to the right in redistricting.
The good news for Nevada Democrats: This district is still within reach.

Oh, and here's some more good news for @NVDems: GOP establishment favorite Paul Anderson is being challenged in the Republican Primary by "tea party" darling Leonard Foster. As we discussed earlier this month, the growing "Muth Caucus" led furor over Governor Sandoval's flip-flop on the sunset taxes may have the biggest impact here.

However, Democrats aren't without their own primary drama here. 2010 nominee Lou DeSalvio is running again, but this time he's being challenged in the primary by local activist and small business owner Leisa Moseley. So far it doesn't look to be as acrimonious as the primary situation on the other side, but we'll still have to see how bad their primary gets before determining if this becomes a top Democratic pick-up opportunity.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

In 2010, Crescent Hardy was fortunate enough to run in a super safe AD 20 that Republicans never had to think about defending. However in 2012, that's all about to change. The new AD 19 may still contain Hardy's hometown of Mesquite along with Republican friendly turf in Old Henderson, but it also picks up more Democratic friendly precincts around Nellis Air Force Base, resulting in a district with only about a 3% Republican registration edge, as well as a district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid won. Incumbent Steven Brooks (D-East Las Vegas) was also originally placed in this district, but he jumped to AD 17 to run in a safer district.

So we'll have to keep an eye on Felipe Rodriguez to see if he can do what no Democrat has done before.

AD 20
Paradise/Henderson: Sunset Park, Green Valley, Whitney Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 62%
McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 59%
John McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 51%
Brian Sandoval (R) 45%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic (Pick-up)

So whatever happened to AD 20? It got moved in redistricting from rural Clark County to the urban core of Paradise (aka "The East Side") and the older Green Valley North neighborhoods of Henderson. Without a doubt, this is the Assembly seat most likely to change hands this year. And without a doubt, the most action we'll see here will be in the Democratic Primary.

Nevada State Board of Education member Gloria Bonaventura, Former Assembly Member Ellen Spiegel, and local attorney and community activist Kent Ivey are all running in the Democratic Primary here. And again, whoever wins that primary is virtually assured of winning in the general.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

With current Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) stepping down and redistricting radically reshaping this district, AD 21 is also poised to deliver big changes this year. For one, it's dropped Green Valley Ranch to pick up Silverado Ranch. And in doing that, it's shifted from a typically Republican friendly district to a more Democratic leaning district and prime Democratic pick-up opportunity.

Perhaps that's why three Democrats are all vying for this seat: retired Carpenters Union official Rick Wilkening, Touro University dean Dr. Andy Eisen, and attorney, community activist, & "soccer dad" Steve Parke (disclaimer: he's also my neighbor). In addition, we'll likely see a battle royale in the Republican Primary here as Mark Sherwood endorsed attorney & "PTA mom" Becky Harris goes against Clark County Republican Party e-board representative and early "tea party" favorite Swadeep Nigam.

The general election should also be pretty competitive, but the recent political trends in Green Valley South and Silverado Ranch give Democrats the early advantage and the chance for another valuable pick-up. Becky Harris may not make it easy, but the resumes of both Andy Eisen and Steve Parke suggest they're up for the challenge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) is getting a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

Now this should be fun. Local "Gun Store" and "tea party" celebrity Bob Irwin is back (he ran against John Oceguera in the old AD 16 in 2010), but this time he's moving to Henderson to challenge incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson). Irwin has definitely gained plenty of media attention with his "Gun Store", but Mastroluca also earned her own reputation over the years as an involved parent and education activist. This may very well be a "battle of the heavyweights" that keeps us at the edge of our seats all year.

Certainly, AD 29 tipped to the right in redistricting as it shed some Democratic turf to the new AD 20 while picking up some Republican leaning neighborhoods from the old AD 21. Still, April Mastroluca has earned respect as a good campaigner. And considering her past victories over the more moderate Sean Fellows (2008) and Dan Hill (2010), it won't be easy for known "tea party" flame thrower Bob Irwin to unseat April Mastroluca in a Green Valley based district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid still carried.

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

Here's another prime pick-up opportunity for Nevada Democrats. Assembly Minority Pete Goicoechea (R-Eureka) has been representing this district, but he's moving onto the Senate... While his old Assembly District moves from rural Northern Nevada to Clark County and settles in some Southwest Vegas neighborhoods that may ultimately be more interested in sending a Democrat to Carson City.

Still, this isn't stopping Republican Adam Cegavske (yes, Barbara Cegavske's son!) from running here. However, his campaign isn't stopping real estate agent and "tea party" hopeful Tom Blanchard from running here as well. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, local attorney & community activist Nathan Sosa and MGM manager (he runs housekeeping at New York New York) & HRC Las Vegas Steering Committee Co-chair James Healey are running here.

Yet again, we have a wide open seat in "The Wild (South)West" attracting plenty of candidates. But ultimately, I suspect Democrats have the early edge here.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

Still, Marcus Conklin won't make this easy for Wesley Duncan. While his ties to mining lobbyists and gaming insiders may provide Duncan with prime "dirt" to use against Conklin on the campaign trail, they nonetheless provide Conklin with plenty of needed cash to pummel Duncan and respond to those attacks. Don't be surprised if this ends up as one of the ugliest #NVLeg races on record.

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 25
Reno- West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

No one even bothered to challenge Pat Hickey, so this is the last time you'll see this district on this list.

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. Maybe this is the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Sparks- Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well?

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---


All in all, it looks like we'll be seeing a whole lot of change in the Assembly next year. For all we know, the Assembly may even get an unexpected new Speaker next year, along with a whole lot of surprising seat flips in both directions. Like yesterday's Senate forecast, I'll rate the ten hottest Assembly races on the basis of most likely to change parties.

1. AD 20 (R to D)
2. AD 21 (R to D)
3. AD 35 (R to D)
4. AD 19 (D to R)
5. AD 37 (D to R)
6. AD 31 (D to R)
7. AD 4 (R to D)
8. AD 29 (D to R)
9. AD 5 (D to R)
10. AD 13 (R to D)

If the election were today, I'd stop the flipping at #6. This would mean Espinosa unseats Daly, Duncan unseats Conklin, and Hardy wins reelection, giving Republicans three pick-ups. However, this would also mean the Democrats win the trio of open seats previously held by Republicans, giving Democrats three pick-ups. So funny enough, in the end we get the same 26-16 split we had last session... Just in an odd way that includes interesting pick-ups and painful losses for both parties.

Is "ObamaCare" Dead? Hardly.

So far, we've been hearing plenty of hyperventilating in the media over today's Supreme Court oral arguments on the Affordable Care Act and the legality of the individual mandate. However, most pundits didn't even bother to step back and look at what really happened today. Fortunately, Slate's Dahlia Lithwick did.



And so did Lyle Denniston of the venerable SCOTUS Blog.

Justice Stephen G. Breyer was the most vigorous defender of Congress’s power to select the mandate as the key piece in the new health care law’s regulation of the insurance industry, but almost equally in its favor were Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. But those four, of course, cannot control the outcome on their own. But, in the end, if Kennedy were to wind up accepting the mandate’s validity — however reluctantly — those four could then be in the majority. Such a majority, it appeared, would probably form only behind the theory that the mandate was within Congress’s power under the Commerce Clause, not under its taxing authority in the General Welfare Clause. The tax argument seemed to lack force, and, anyway, Verrilli used it primarily as just a backup.

If that coalition were to form, it would be likely that Justice Kennedy, the senior among those five, almost certainly would assign the opinion to himself — unless, of course, the Chief Justice ultimately were persuaded to go along so that this historic case did not turn out to be decided by a possibly embarrassing 5-4 vote. Roberts was among the more combative adversaries of the mandate, during Verrilli’s argument, but he made considerable efforts to remind the challengers’ lawyers of the government’s key points, perhaps to test how solid their answers to those points would be. His vote in favor of the mandate did seem like a long shot, unless he found institutional imperatives for going along if a majority were to uphold it.

And thankfully, so did Sahil Kapur at TPM.

Despite their tough questions, both Kennedy and Roberts indicated sympathy with the view that health insurance is a unique market that may require a unique approach to regulate — and that’s central to the constitutional question at hand.

“I think it is true that if most questions in life are matters of degree,” Kennedy said, “in the insurance and health care world, both markets — stipulate two markets — the young person who is uninsured is uniquely proximately very close to affecting the rates of insurance and the costs of providing medical care in a way that is not true in other industries.”

Despite his initial skepticism, Roberts later seemed persuaded of the uniqueness of health care market.

“Everybody is in this market,” Roberts told the lawyer for the Republican opponents. “So that makes it very different than the market for cars or the other hypotheticals that you came up with, and all they’re regulating is how you pay for it.”

So is it smooth sailing from here? Hardly. We have one more session of oral arguments coming tomorrow on the issue of "severability", or whether the entire Affordable Care Act must be thrown out if the individual mandate is found unconstitutional. The mandate is really the "glue" that holds the Affordable Care Act together and makes the "Affordable" part of it a real possibility, although some legal scholars think the rest of the bill can somehow be reworked without a mandate. It would just be a matter of what on earth can be passed in this Congress.

And of course, it really comes back to that. How much power does Congress have to mandate health insurance and regulate the health insurance market? In looking at what Kennedy and Roberts said today, it seems like they're open to discuss this some more.

As we discussed yesterday, this whole fight that's supposedly about the law has been clouded immensely by partisan politics. We'll just have to see what happens later this week. And we'll have to keep hoping that at least five Supreme Court Justices care more about the letter of the law than raw campaign politics. And yes, I do believe that hope is still quite alive today. Just don't expect the typical media pundits to report on that.

Health Care on Trial (& It's Really More Political Than Legal)

Last week, we celebrated the second anniversary of passage of the Affordable Care Act. We've seen how "Obamacare" benefits the entire country, as well as how the ACA benefits Nevada. But now, health care is on trial. The US Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments this week on the legal merits of ACA.

So far, the most challenged provision of ACA has been the individual mandate. But funny enough, Republicans don't like to talk about how it became a key provision of health care reform in the first place.



Once upon a time, Republicans liked the individual mandate because they thought it promoted "individual responsibility". It was not until President Obama agreed to include an individual mandate in his health care reform package that they all of a sudden embraced the legal argument against federal regulatory authority that had previously only been pushed by fringe libertarian legal thinkers.

And that's what makes this week so odd. Over the weekend, both New York Times Supreme Court expert Linda Greenhouse and Slate Supreme Court watcher Dahlia Lithwick stated the obvious, which is that the legal case for health care reform really is more of a slam dunk than most of the media pundits want us to believe. Despite all the political controversy over "LIBERTY!!!", the "tea party" really has no legitimate legal leg to stand upon when it comes to challenging basic federal regulatory authority.

Here's Greenhouse:

So I want to unpack the challengers’ Commerce Clause argument for what it is: just words.

Basically just one word, in fact: “unprecedented.” ...

The government argues that, to the contrary, the “uncompensated consumption of health care” by those who are willfully or helplessly uninsured is itself an enormous economic activity. The uninsured don’t exist apart from commerce. To the contrary, their medical care results in some $43 billion of uncovered health care costs annually and, through cost-shifting, adds $1,000 a year to the average cost of a family insurance policy. People who don’t want to buy broccoli or a new car can eat brussels sprouts or take the bus, but those without health insurance are in commerce whether they like it or not.

And here's Lithwick:



Even "Fox News" pundit Juan Williams thinks Chief Justice John Roberts wouldn't want to support an overtly political move to overturn the ACA, since the case against health care is really more political than legal. And as we've discussed before, even a number of CONSERVATIVE legal scholars believe the ACA is wholly constitutional and within Congress' authority to regulate interstate commerce.

Again, this is why the case against "Obamacare" has always been more about the politics than about the law. The legal case really is open-shut, so all the G-O-TEA can do is spew more venom and hope against hope that "The Supremes" put campaign politics above The Constitution. And while this court has been playing with fire lately in reaching some controversial decisions, there's a good probability that even this court suspects overturning the ACA because of partisan politics is simply crossing a bridge too far.

Pity Reno? Maybe Vegas Should.

As more holidays draw closer, I wanted to spread some good cheer. But alas, Coolican is playing Grinch again. This time, he's laughing at poor Reno's despair.

In the new Muppet movie, Reno appears as a sad sack dump for Fozzie Bear's failed solo career. The TV show “Reno 911” has long mocked the city’s police department, and to add insult to injury, the show isn’t even filmed in Reno — where this week two bins of “Toys for Tots” were stolen from a Walmart only to be returned.

And then on “Saturday Night Live” last week, “Weekend Update” host Seth Meyers had this to say: “According to a new list, the least happiest city in America is St. Petersburg, Fla. But that’s only because Reno, Nevada, finally killed itself.” (Las Vegas is actually the suicide capital of America, but moving on ...)

Well, Reno is fighting back!

Some genius in an editors’ meeting of the Reno Gazette-Journal decided he’d had enough. (Somehow I know it was a he.) The paper asked its readers to contribute to an “open letter to Seth Meyers” that will be published Sunday from the people of Reno, a city known for the purity of its methamphetamine.

(Note: The SNL joke on Reno starts just after 9:00 here.)

But wait, it gets worse. RGJ editors started a campaign earlier this week to fight back by turning the joke on Seth Meyers, but Coolican won't have any of that.

The problem here is that these aren’t funny. In fact, the whole flaw in this plan, as I noted on Twitter on Tuesday (@jpcoolican), is that Seth Meyers is funny. Whereas the people of Reno — where the dirt flooring of the homes serves for both sleeping and eating — and the editors of the Reno Gazette Journal are not funny.

If they were funny, they wouldn’t be living in Reno, where we all hope girls will be permitted to go to school someday. They’d be in New York City getting paid to be funny. (Same goes with me, s’pose.)

Wait, how does that old saying go about people who live glass houses throwing stones? Remember all the sturm und drang over Mindy Kaling saying something stupid about Downtown Las Vegas and Luv-It Frozen Custard? And remember all the fire and brimstone being directed at President Obama for speaking obvious common sense in decrying gambling with our tax dollars or our kids' college funds?

Yes, Coolican, we have our own moments of embarrassing overreactions to otherwise inoccuous comments. For heaven's sake, we were even criticizing the President of the United States for criticizing banks misuing taxpayer supported TARP bailout funds on Las Vegas pleasure junkets! So maybe, just maybe, we should lay off Reno as they're engaging in their own moment of overreaction to silly throwaway comments by far away celebrities.

Sure, I understand that perhaps a few tourists really do base their travel decisions on shit Seth Meyers or Mindy Kaling says. And maybe some big multinational banks really were pressured out of wasting Americans' tax dollars on another "conference" on The Strip after President Obama chided them for misusing TARP funds. But seriously, Las Vegas, Reno, and really all of Nevada have bigger problems than shit celebrities say. I mean, come on, we all deserve to be the punchline of jokes when we don't take investing in our own people and our own success all that seriously. Maybe we should actually reform our 19th century tax code to start giving our kids the 21st century education they deserve so we no longer invite the rest of the country to declare us "The Armpit of America"?

Oh, but who am I to point out Nevada's unique talent of sparking "OUTRAGE!" over others pointing out our own shortcomings? And who is anyone in The South to mock The North for taking a well worn page out of our playbook? Sometimes, a joke is just a joke. Lighten up.

What the Media Won't Tell You About "Class Warfare"

While the corporate media keep obsessing over how "wrong" Shelley Berkley was in saving Nevada's only kidney transplant facility, crying for a "moderate third party" that sounds way too eerily like today's Democratic Party, and misinterpreting poll numbers in trying to predict election results that are still over a year away, we still often see them ignore the biggest stories staring them in the face.

Here it is... Staring them in the face. No really, it's right here!

Many on the right were incensed by the exchange. Why? Well, obviously because the guy who asked the question wants higher taxes on the rich and conservatives disagree. But as it turns out, there’s more to it than that — some are arguing that if this individual wants to voluntarily contribute more to the treasury, he should do so, but people like him and Warren Buffett should leave other wealthy people out of it.

It’s worth pausing to appreciate how ridiculous the argument really is. We’re a massive, modern nation with a vast economy. We face real challenges, and they’re not the kind of challenges individuals can hope to resolve on their own — we need cooperative solutions built around shared action.

Making taxes voluntarily — asking for a little more only from those willing to pay a little more — is absurd.

The GOP’s nonsensical talking points notwithstanding, it’s good to see wealthy individuals stepping up and making the case for more tax fairness. I don’t imagine that will persuade congressional Republicans — nothing seems to persuade congressional Republicans — but it’s a sentiment the public benefits from hearing anyway.

But oh noezzz, he was a LIB'RUL!!!! He was from Teh Googlez!!!

No really, that's all the TEA-nuts have in trying to "refudiate" former Google executive Doug Edwards begging President Obama to raise his taxes in order to invest in the infrastructure we need for more and better jobs for America. And in doing so, they're sloppily glossing over the glaring fact that Edwards pays less in taxes than the vast majority of the rest of us because the capital gains (investment) tax rate is much lower than middle and lower income tax rates.

This is what scares the radical right. When Americans realize how little the super-rich, especially those super-rich that primarily make a living off the financial markets rather than traditional "jobs", actually pay in taxes, they will most certainly be more than willing to send "the tax man" in their direction. Improving tax equity by making the rich pay their fair share is incredibly popular among Americans.

Pay close attention to this recent rant by Elizabeth Warren.



Republicans have been crowing for decades about "class warfare", but they have refused to utter any truth about it. The fact of the matter is that we have indeed seen class warfare in the last forty years, but only the super-rich and largest corporations have been winning this war. Once Americans realize why the rich keep getting richer while they seem stuck in Po'-Town-USA, they may very well redirect their anger in a way that "Tea Party, Inc." fears the most.

And the media fear this as well. They would prefer that we all believe next year's election will be another "neck-n-neck horse race" so they can yet again rake in the millions in ad revenue. That's why we see politics today portrayed as one of those unreal "reality shows" often seen on Bravo or TLC rather than the frustrating growth of inequality and poverty that America's "class warfare" has truly become. So on that note, I should probably get back to browsing through the headlines to see more obsessing over someone pushing to keep open a kidney transplant center, crying for a mythical "moderate third party", and misinterpreting even more poll numbers.

Sharrontology Got on Ralston's Bad Side, Does State Horrible Disservice

I guess Sharron Angle's campaign never realized what would happen if they were to anger our fair state's #1 curmudgeonly pundit. Here's a quick recap:

"Earlier today, Sharron Angle's campaign agreed to accept our invitation to debate Harry Reid on 'Face to Face' in an hour-long live broadcast from Reno on October 21st. Within hours of Reid accepting, Angle's campaign called to say, well, it's backing out now," Ralston said on the local news show "Face to Face" Thursday. He then played a clip of Angle saying she would like to have a debate on the show with Reid.

"I thought I had seen it all in this campaign. I guess not," Ralson continued. "I had agreement from Angle's deputy campaign manager for this debate, but soon after we announced Reid had agreed to the date and place, her campaign spokesman called to say there was no agreement. I'm not making this up, folks. A campaign spokesman overrules a deputy campaign manager? I really don't understand the hierarchy in that campaign."

The Angle campaign subsequently sent out a press release saying there would be a debate -- at a local high school. Ralston responded on Twitter, "But Reid won't even be there. He already taped Q and A at skl. #lame #amateurhour."

Later he added, "Remember "Scanners" where people's heads exploded. That's how I feel right now. This is a Senate race, not a competition for h.s. president." He added this morning that he is "Still stunned. She is on tape!"

Of course, there's even more at Ralston's Twitter haven. Now I have to be fair. I've had my disagreements with him. At times, I do wonder if he "plays favorites" with the candidates. And ultimately, I get annoyed when he gets too "gossipy".

Still, no one, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE, can question Ralston's street creds as Nevada's top political reporter/pundit/opinion-maker/media-superstar. And at the end of the day, it's never a good idea to go out of one's way to piss him off.

That's what Sharrontology's campaign did last night, and I have a feeling he may not have much mercy left over for them after this stunt.

And by the way, why are they so afraid of Angle debating Harry Reid? Does her campaign team fear she's not up to the challenge? Are they afraid of what will happen as more Nevadans figure out who she really is? Or do they just prefer that Karl Rove's corporate-funded attack ads do all the talking for them?

Whatever the case, it actually isn't just Jon Ralston or Sunbelt Communications losing over this... It's all of us.

Are the Beltway/NYC Pundits Giving up on Sharrontology?

If we're to believe the talking heads on MSNBC's often painfully obnoxious "Morning Joe", they're not holding much more hope for Sharrontology Obtuse Angle (Sharron Angle) to keep our little US Senate race exciting enough for them to keep making up shit about discussing.



Meanwhile, I hear our lovely local teabagger flavored fishwrap "newspaper" has something to say about all of this.

Bullshit, crap, more crap, blow job for Ronald Reagan, miss old Ronnie, hate Harry, [LOVE SHARRONTOLOGY OBTUSE ANGLE!!!], bullshit, more bullshit, pure unadulterated crap, derivative crap, insightful conservative hate speech, more crap, small turds, bigger turds, little rat publisher flatulence, bla, bla bla, love the governor... [Governor Who?], all lies about [Sandoval], the governor... [We mean, Sandoval!] ... didn't do any of that, apologist, [all lies about Sharrontology], flatulence, still hate Reid, both of them, Shelley Berkley, lucky she's in that gerrymandered district, more flatulence, Dina Taxes is in trouble, she won but she's in trouble, hate democrats, love the tea baggers, [jerking off for Joe Heck], love the [radical right], lovin Ronnie Reagan, George who?, [Johnny Casino who?], [Gibbons who?], [Angle who?], bullshit, crap, more crap, the only thing I like about the beltway is the name, damn people speeding, crap, bla, crap, bla, shit, bla ffffffffffftttttttt(a tribute to Mad Magazine!)

:-D