NV-02: Sharrontology Is Back!

Oh, joy!

Sharron Angle will run for the U.S. House seat now held by Rep. Dean Heller, Sun columnist Jon Ralston reported this morning.

Ralston said a knowledgeable source confirmed that Angle will run for the seat. Angle lost her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in November 2010. [...]

The Republican Party’s top elected officials — Gov. Brian Sandoval and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki — quickly closed ranks around Heller on Tuesday. Other Republicans are on the shortlist for the seat: Nevada Republican Chairman Mark Amodei; state Sen. Greg Brower of Reno; Kirk Lippold, former commander of the USS Cole.

While I was hoping she would cause mayhem in the Senate race, I guess that just wasn't to be...

But hey, look on the bright side! Our Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron might just cost the Nevada GOP a district they never lost before (but came close to in 2006, thanks to Our Lady of Perpetual Campaigning)!



Frankly, I think this is a MUCH better ad for her!



So don't count Sharrrrrrrrrrrrron out just yet! Remember, both Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei AND Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki want to run in NV-02 as well. If they both run and split the GOP establishment vote and $$$$, much like Dean Heller and Dawn Gibbons did in 2006, Angle just might slip through. (She came within 500 votes and a federal law suit then!)

We'll have to see how far Chuck Muth gets in pushing Kirk Lippold as "Mr. Tea Party". That's the only big worry for Angle in the primary, other than Krolicki possibly convincing Amodei to bow out.

But for now, I'm so happy we have Queen Obtuse Angle of the Teabaggers to mock again.

;-)

Revisiting Redistricting: All About Shelley... And Sharron?

(Also at Swing State Project)

Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here's another option... But I have to warn you, it isn't pretty.

So what if Shelley Berkley doesn't run? Last time, we just assumed she was, and certain legislators hope she will so that they can redesign the 1st Congressional District (and form the brand new 4th) to their liking. But hold on, what if Shelley doesn't run? Certain folks in DC have already been whispering they prefer someone else run for Senate. And now that Dean Heller is officially in the race, they're making their views more public that they want someone, like Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto, who has already proven ability to win statewide.

So what if Shelley doesn't run? This is the scenario I explore in the map below.





NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,966
69.3% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

The geographic map hasn't changed since last time, but the political one certainly has!

Who's All In?

Again, it's now official that Dean Heller is running for US Senate. And now that he's endorsed Heller for Senate, current Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki (R) just may be angling to replace Heller in this seat. And on paper, he seems like the ideal candidate: libertarian-conservative, but not too extreme, and very focused on Nevada issues. However, there are three drawbacks for him:

The Wild Cards

- One, Sharron Angle hasn't yet figured out where she will run. (And yes, it's pretty much settled that she WILL run for federal office again!) If she runs for Senate again, it will mean extra heartburn for Heller. But if she runs for this seat again, it will mean extra trouble for Krolicki.

- Two, the outspoken and controversial former USS Cole commander Kirk Lippold has already hinted he'll also run in NV-02, and Nevada "tea party" icon Chuck Muth may already be anointing him as "THE Tea Party's Favored Son". So if Sharron Angle runs for Senate instead and Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei remains adamant about staying in the race (and potentially siphoning away critical GOP establishment support for Krolicki), this could be a recipe for yet another embarrassing setback for Krolicki and the Nevada GOP.

- And three, the unexpected may finally happen: A prominent A-List Democrat, State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), is now considering running. If this comes to fruition and the GOP nominee is either weakened by a brutal primary and/or someone that the GOP establishment won't be happy to support, then NV-02 just might do the unthinkable for the first time ever (elect a Democrat).

2010 US Senate Results
49.6% Angle (R)
43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
49% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Sharron Angle or Kirk Lippold is the GOP nominee

NV-03 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,257
66.4% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

This district is just slightly more Democratic than its last incarnation, and that's due to the return of the ritzy Summerlin North and Peccole Ranch (home of Shelley Berkley) Las Vegas neighborhoods to NV-01. The rest of the district remains intact, and the partisan makeup wasn't too altered thanks to the remaining rural territories and the addition of some semi-rural (Las Vegas) West Side precincts along Sahara and west of Rainbow. And other than forming an even more disturbingly gerrymandered Reno-to-Vegas district, there isn't anything more that can be done to save Joe Heck. And considering Heck's recent vote to preserve the FHA program assisting homeowners with underwater loans (which is badly needed in the district with the highest foreclosure rate in the country), he now realizes he will need to tack to the middle at times and at least pay some lip service to issues Southern Nevada cares about most (like housing and jobs) to win this still closely divided district.

Who's All In?

See above. Heck looks to be preparing for reelection already. And since there's a penchant for close elections and for ticket splitting here, he certainly shouldn't be counted out in a district that President Obama will probably only narrowly win next year.

The Wild Cards

Should Heck prove to be "too independent" for teabaggers' liking, or if/when he runs for another office later in the decade, State Senators Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest) and Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) will likely remain waiting in the wings. But with the removal of Summerlin North, it may be a little harder to find a West Side Democrat to run here. However, Democrats may want to look at the other end of the valley (particularly at a couple folks on the Henderson City Council) for future recruits.

2010 US Senate Results
48.2% Angle (R)
46.5% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
51% Obama (D)
46% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican



NV-01 (The Baby Blue District)

Population: 675,092
43.7% Latino (38.1% voting age), 32.2% White (37.6% voting age), 14.4% African American (14.4% voting age)

The State of Play

Shelley is back... Or at the very least, this seat is hers as long as she wants it. If Shelley Berkley does decide to sit out the Senate race next year and stay in The House for now, she still has a super safe seat ready for her.

This seat is just slightly more Republican than the last version, but still slightly more Democratic than the NV-01 drawn in 2001. And again, that's just because the district (once again) has to stretch west toward Red Rock Canyon to dip into Shelley's elegant stomping grounds of Peccole Ranch and Summerlin North. However, this does very much alter the ultimate state of play here.

Who's All In?

Without Summmerlin, this district can finally send a North Las Vegas politico like State Senators Steven Horsford or Ruben Kihuen to Congress. But with this configuration, high turnout West End 'hoods like Summerlin and Desert Shores will probably remain quite dominant in the primary, meaning Shelley will go untouched as long as she wants to remain in NV-01...

The Wild Cards

And should she finally run for higher office or retire later in the decade, a Summerlin area Democrat like State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) or Clark County Commissioner (and Future Las Vegas Mayor?) Larry Brown (D-Las Vegas) definitely has a good chance here. But if Ruben Kihuen can be patient and turn out his enthusiastic "NorTown" base, he will still have a strong fighting chance as this district continues to inch toward becoming majority Latino and supermajority minority-majority. And honestly, neither can Horsford be counted out, especially if he can wait another cycle or two for Shelley to step aside.

2010 US Senate Results
62.5% Reid (D)
33.1% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
66% Obama (D)
32% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+13

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic, regardless of who ultimately runs here



NV-04 (Light Spring Green)

Population: 674,936
48.6% White (53.2% voting age), 27% Latino (23.1% voting age), 11.8% Asian American (12.3% voting age)

The State of Play

It's still open season here... Perhaps even more so if Shelley indeed decides to stay put next door. The district hooks into The West Side to take whiter neighborhoods left out of NV-01, then jumps down to the increasingly diverse Spring Valley, then hops across The Strip to The East Side and some of East Las Vegas (and ultimately to Lake Mead), then climbs uphill to grab the more Democratic leaning Henderson precincts of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch, then sweeps through the diverse and increasingly Democratic friendly Silverado Ranch communuity, then hops back across The 15 to snatch some minority-majority neighborhoods in the once rapidly growing Southwest.

Who's All In?

Need we ask? Rory Reid is probably out of the running for good, and Dina Titus' political stock continues to rebound. This time, she just might get a seat she can get comfy in.

The Wild Cards

However, Dina also can't take this seat for granted. Both Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D-Spring Valley) and current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) are eyeing this district, and both have far better relationships with the Nevada Democratic establishment than Dina Titus.

2010 US Senate Results
56.0% Reid (D)
39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results
60% Obama (D)
37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic, and will probably be downgraded to Safe Democratic so long as the eventual nominee isn't caught in a Rory-like scandal

Suffice to say, a whole lot changes if Shelley Berkley decides to stay in The House rather than run for Senate. The Clark based districts will probably have to be gerrymandered at least somewhat to keep everyone happy.

And up north, the fate of NV-02 may very well rest on what Sharron Angle decides to do, and what her once ardent "tea party" supporters think of Brian Krolicki and Mark Amodei. If Angle can regain their trust, or if she runs for Senate instead and allows someone like Kirk Lippold to consolidate the tea tinged Northern Nevada far right base, Krolicki may not be in for an easy ride regardless of whether Dean Heller decides to anoint a successor. And with Kate Marshall now eyeing a run here as well, Democrats may actually have a pickup opportunity up north next year.

Ensign's Gone... Now What?

Heh. That didn't take long.

In a final acquiescence to what many saw as the inevitable end to his scandal-scarred political career, U.S. Sen. John Ensign closed the door on a re-election bid Monday, dramatically improving his party’s chances of keeping his seat in a swing state that has been leaning more Democrat[ic].

The move accelerates the race for a seat that will help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate after 2012.

Ensign’s announcement intensifies the pressure on Democrats, who had been hoping the beleaguered incumbent would stay in the race long enough to weaken presumed Republican front-runner Rep. Dean Heller. [...]

Democrats must quickly figure out who their strongest candidate will be to run as they hope to resurrect the Obama wave and ride it once again to down-ticket victories.

Meanwhile, Republicans will try to quell a potential scrum of primary opponents who might view the open seat more favorably now, despite Heller’s presumed entrance.

So who's all in? Need we even ask? Dean Heller is running. He's wanted this for quite some time. And now, he has it...

Or at least, he thinks he has it in the bag.

What if solidly popular Secretary of State Ross Miller or Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto decides to run?

(Skip to 3:30 on the video.)



So will one of them step up and do it? Well, on the Democratic side, all depends on Shelley Berkley's decision. It looked likely Shelley would run when it also looked likely that Ensign would continue his vanity campaign, regardless of what his actual chances were. But now that Ensign was forced out by GOP power players is retiring "for family reasons", the race looks like less of "a gimme" for Shelley, and the DSCC has already sent smoke signals suggesting they don't believe she's the only game in town.

I suspect Shelley is now under intense pressure from the DSCC to make up her mind once and for all, and do so quickly. I'm sensing the DSCC prefers she bow out and let Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto take a crack at this race, but they also realize Shelley has the full force of The Reids behind her and won't stand for a heated primary if she's that determined to run.

But does Dean Heller have that kind of luxury on the GOP side? Perhaps not. Guess who's already testing the waters!

It's possible that former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle could mount another bid for a spot in the upper congressional chamber next year, an adviser to the Tea Party darling signaled to Ben Smith at Politico on Monday. [...]

On Monday, Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced that he would not run for reelection in 2012. It seems for Angle, the news could be just the opening she needed to mull another run.

"Almost 250,000 Republicans have already donated to Sharron Angle, probably more than any Republican in the country," wrote consultant John Yob in an e-mail to Smith. "She will be a tremendously strong candidate for whichever office she chooses to run for. A combination of a strong tea-party based grassroots operation and unprecedented campaign funding is a powerful combination in a Republican Primary."

During a recent trip to New Hampshire, Angle hinted that another campaign for federal office could be in her political future. According to the Union Leader, she ruled out a run for the White House.

Yes, my dears. "Our Lady of Perpetual Campaigning" returns! And she has a history of going toe to toe against Heller, so let the fireworks begin.

The Hill suggests that Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki might also want to run, but both Ralston and Roll Call suspect he's more likely to run for Heller's current NV-02 House seat. I think the latter two are right on this, as Krolicki probably doesn't want to take on Heller, and would rather ease his way into a cushy House seat.

So however this shakes out, Nevada is poised to yet again host the most topsy-turvy, thrilling, and exciting Senate campaign in the country. And of course, we'll be here to guide you through all the craziness of it. ;-)

NV-Sen: No, Krook-licki Really Won't Be Running

It's confirmed. I had a feeling this would happen.

First term Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki says he won't run for the U.S. Senate to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Krolicki, a two-term state treasurer, said he will be seeking a second term as lieutenant governor.

The first-term Republican lieutenant governor had said he was giving the Senate race serious consideration after receiving encouragement from Washington insiders, including Ariz. Sen John McCain.

Republicans in Washington are afraid the current crop of GOP challengers to Reid is second-tier.

The challengers currently include former state Sen. Sue Lowden, former UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian and former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle.

Second-tier? Oh no, DC Republicans. These wonderful "Klown Kar Kandidates" are fourth-tier at best!

Yet again, Team Reid can breathe a sigh of relief. It will still take some work to defeat the radical right's new darlings here, but at least we can entertain ourselves with observing more Nevada Republican self-destruction! :-D

NV-Sen: Krook-licki Back In? Johnny Mac Wants Him Back In?

Oh, noezzz! Harry Reid must be crying in a corner over this... Perhaps crying because he's laughing so hard?

Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki is now strongly considering a run for the U.S. Senate this year against Sen. Harry Reid, he told the Sun today.

"There are serious people making compelling arguments to me both in the state and out of the state to reconsider the Harry Reid race, and based on that pressure and those conversations I am indeed looking at it," Krolicki said.

Republicans in Washington are displeased with the current crop of candidates taking on Reid, which includes former state Sen. Sue Lowden, former UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian and former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. [...]

Krolicki said Sen. John McCain, whose Nevada presidential campaign he chaired, had reached out to him in the past week.

"It's hard not to consider this when you have people like John McCain asking you to," Krolicki said. [...]

If he is the preferred candidate of Republicans in Washington, he could see a quick cash infusion and pressure on other candidates to bow out.

Obviously, Republicans still don't get it. First off, the only way "Senator Centerfold" was able to snatch the MA-Sen election win was because he distanced himself from "the establishment". And come on, what could possibly be more "establishment" than John McCain and McCain Campaign Chair Brian Krook-licki?

And secondly, just because a judge of questionable repute dismisses the corruption case (while leaving the door wide open for a retrial with a stronger indictment) doesn't mean there's no corruption to be found. Oh yes, I'm sure Team Reid is (re)starting the oppo research should Krook-licki decide to jump back in this race... Which he still may not if wiser heads (the few left in the Nevada GOP) prevail.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the "conventional wisdom" is that Krook-licki has so much mojo and we're supposed to be running scared. YEAH. RIGHT! If this is the best the GOoPers have, then I'm not feeling too scared right now. As I said this morning, as long as Reid delivers the goods he'll be reelected.

And if GOoPers screw up by forsaking their "grassroots", ignoring their wishes, kicking other candidates out of what's supposed to be a fairly contested primary, and forcing Krook-licki upon them, it may backfire on them in ways they won't like in November. After all, Suzy Lowdown already knows an awful lot about that.

Nevada Judge to Us: "Oh Noezz, There's No Corruption Here"...

In case you haven't yet heard, "The Krook-licki Case" has been dismissed. At least it's dismissed without prejudice, so there's a chance one of those rare honest judges may allow prosecution at a later date. Judge Valerie Adair says she could not see how our wonderful Lt. Governor misappropriated our tax dollars when he was Treasurer, and Steve Sebelius isn't getting it.

Hmmm, let’s see if we can follow this logic chain: [Brian] Krolicki is a politician. Politicians ply their trade by advertising their good works. Advertising costs money. Money is notoriously hard to come by, requiring many hours of repetitive phone calls, fundraisers, etc. Krolicki used the powers of his office to take money that was supposed to be deposited into state accounts to instead be spent specifically on ads featuring himself. Those ads saved him millions that he’d otherwise have to have raised himself, or done without. All of which was done knowingly, willfully and intentionally in contravention of well-established state procedures, with which Krolicki was well-familiar.

Yes, it really is hard to see how Krolicki benefited himself in this scheme, huh? Judges still have to go to law school in Nevada, right? They didn’t change that rule while we were on vacation last week, did they?

Score another one for Nevada's craptastic judicial system! If you're a powerful politician, even a disgraced one like "Krook-licki", you can always get off scott free if you "know the right people".

Oh, and one more thought. The GOoPers are already claiming "vindication", but I just find their hypocrisy on Krook-licki's obvious (mis)use of state funds for his next campaign. Republicans whine and scream all the time over “government waste”, but how is it that they never complain when one of their own spends our tax dollars on his political campaign? The irony never ceases to amaze me.