What a Difference a Week Makes

Remember this?

Even though Republican leaders want to make it seem like they're now a "diverse and inclusive party", reality just doesn't sync with them. Even Mitt Romney himself has basically conceded that his base is overwhelmingly old, white, and straight (and majority male on top of all that), and that his only plausible path to victory lies in fueling racial tension.

Now, see this.

The Republican convention in Tampa revealed a deep bench of talented women and minority leaders, many of whom were given prime speaking slots. But the delegates and convention-goers were overwhelmingly white (despite high-profile speeches from Condoleezza Rice, Mia Love and Artur Davis, for example, only 2 percent of actual delegates at the RNC were black), a fact that the Democratic convention organizers in Charlotte pointed out several times as they detailed the week ahead in a press conference Monday.

Declaring Democrats the “party of openness,” Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the convention chairman, said this convention “will be the most diverse in history, and we’re very proud of that. You’ll see people from every walk of life: rich, poor, black, white, Latino, Asian, Christians, Jews, Muslims … we’re all here celebrating this great vision of ours.”

Twenty-seven percent of Democratic delegates are black (up from 24 percent in 2008), and 50 percent are women, according to Alice Germond, the Democratic National Committee secretary.

“This is truly the most diverse, the most open, the most transparent, the most exciting convention we’re about to undertake,” Germond told reporters. “It is big, it is bold, it is beautiful, it is America.”

And remember this?

[Ron] Paul's troops refuse to go away quietly. And actually, they've already been causing trouble for the entire Nevada delegation. For one, the Nevada delegation has been placed in "the nosebleed section" of the convention center. And to make things worse, the big name G-O-TEA politicians are staying away from them. And since conventions are often defined by access and "schmoozing", it really hurts for the Romney alternates who wanted to enjoy the "pomp and circumstance" of the convention.

Now, see this.

In Nevada’s case, there’s no comparison: The Democrats are wooing much harder than the Republicans did.

This week, when Nevada’s delegates gather for their daily state breakfast meetings, they will be feted by practically every Democratic party A-lister short of President Barack Obama.

The week’s scheduled roster of breakfast speakers and schmoozers includes Democratic National Convention chairwoman Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz; permanent convention chairman Antonio Villaraigosa, the mayor of Los Angeles; Obama campaign manager Jim Messina; top Obama counselor and White House congressional liaison Pete Rouse; and at least two members of the president’s Cabinet.

It is a far cry from the treatment Nevada received at the Republican National Convention last week in Tampa, Fla., where delegates were ignored by everyone but the most fringe figures of the GOP, such as the Republican voter fraud watchdog group “True the Vote” and 2010’s Tea Party darling Sharron Angle. Even when House Speaker John Boehner and Mitt Romney’s son and surrogate Josh came by the delegation’s hotel to speak with the Pennsylvania representatives, they steered sharply clear of the Nevada breakfast room down the hall.

So for one, Democrats are set to have a truly diverse body from top to bottom present at theory convention in Charlotte this week. Unlike the Republicans, Democrats seem to actually be matching words with action when it comes to respecting and embracing the diversity of America.

And secondly, Nevada Democrats actually look to be getting the red carpet treatment in Charlotte this week. This is obviously totally different from what happened to Nevada Republicans in Tampa last week. I wonder why this is happening (snark).

So already, it looks like there will be a wholly different tone in Charlotte, especially when it comes to how Nevada is viewed and how the delegation looks more like America. We'll have to wait and see what happens next as the week unfolds. But so far, we can already see what a difference a week makes.

NV-01: Chris Edwards Exposed

Remember Chris Edwards? He's the NV-01 G-O-TEA nominee. And he actually thinks he can deceive Nevada Latinos that he's more of a friend than Dina Titus is!

Believe it or not, the Chris Edwards saga just got a hell of a lot weirder. Unfortunately for him, he accidentally let his true colors appear.

MT @ChrisEdwardsNV: Dina's best help to Hispancis was courtroom translaters to tell them they are going 2 jail

Seriously? Seriously? Did Chris Edwards just say that? Oh yes, he did.

But wait, there's more! He then tweeted this.

RT @ChrisEdwardsNV: @laurakmm courtroom translators. If you provide help sooner then there is no courtroom

Oh yes, he actually said that. Apparently, Chris Edwards thinks Latinos are all criminals.

I figured his charade couldn't last forever. He opposes the DREAM Act, comprehensive immigration reform, universal health care, support for public education, and pretty much everything else Nevada Latinos care about. Yet all this year, he's been pretending to care about the Latino families of NV-01. I guess he's been getting advice on minority voter outreach from Danny Tarkanian.

Well, that's being put to an end. The charade is over. Chris Edwards has just been exposed as just another anti-immigrant G-O-TEA sycophant.

How The West Will Be Won: How to Score in NV-04

Last week, we opened our new series on critical Western swing (Congressional) districts with a closer look at the always critical ground game in NV-03. Today, we're swinging north to Nevada's newest Congressional District. While this year may be NV-04's grand debut, it combines all the quintessential elements of Nevada's unique demographic and political landscape to create a different kind of swing district.

Below, we'll examine what had made Republicans so dominant throughout much of the district in the not too distant past... And why Democrats are feeling so upbeat about it now.

Perhaps the wildest surprise of the June primary was what happened in NV-04. While Danny Tarkanian managed to win the G-O-TEA primary, he faced a much stiffer challenge from State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Spring Valley) than most pundits had expected. And in perhaps the biggest blow to Baby Tark, his famous last name (his dad is the famed former UNLV
basketball coach, while he himself was a star UNLV basketball player in the early 1980s) fell flat in his home turf of Clark County! Oh yes, Cegavske actually narrowly won the Clark (Las Vegas Metro) part of the district, while Tarkanian ultimately had to count on outsized margins in the Rural Nevada part of the district to put him over the top.

So wait, how did this happen? Let me explain.

Redistricting meant Nevada was set to gain a Congressional District. And ultimately, that resulted in this rather unique district.

NV-04 is an interesting district in that it runs through all the cross sections of Nevada's topography and demography. It stretches from the tranquil rural confines of Yerington and Ely to the bustling urban atmosphere of Las Vegas and North Las Vegas. It includes hard hit, poverty stricken neighborhoods, like Pahrump, as well as Nevada's wealthiest neighborhoods, like Summerlin. It includes some of the whitest and some of the most minority-majority communities in the state. And despite the 10% Democratic voter registration advantage, it's a district that both parties are fighting for.

Although 85.2% of NV-04's registered voters reside in Clark County, the rural parts of the district have an outsized influence over the district. Why? They turn out in big numbers, while some of the Clark County areas (in particular, the poorer and minority-majority urban core of the district) tend to produce lower voter turnout. This turned out to be Danny Tarkanian's "Ace in the Hole" in the Republican Primary, and he's clearly hoping it will be his secret to success this fall.

However, there's a reason why Barack Obama (2008) and Harry Reid (2010) both won NV-04 handily. Just take a look above. There are more Democratic voters in the district. And as long as they turn out, Democrats win.

This is what really seems to scare Danny Tarkanian's campaign. After all, why else would Danny Tarkanian so cravenly and clumsily attempt to run away from his own "tea party" approved record? Even Baby Tark himself must be realizing that "TEA" won't be fueling any realistic win in NV-04.

So Steven Horsford has some challenges ahead of them, but they're certainly achievable. While the rural areas vote heavily, the numbers in Clark County are still far greater. Basically, as long as North Las Vegas and the urban core of Las Vegas turn out I'm large numbers, and as long as Horsford can at least keep it close in Summerlin and Northwest Las Vegas, he can win in November.

And that's pretty much how to score in NV-04.

Falling into New #NVLeg Senate Race Ratings

Since the last time we examined the state of the race for #NVLeg, Democrats had gained an edge in their quest to keep control of the Senate... And possibly even expand their numbers. So what's happened since June?

For one, overall voter registration trends have strongly favored Nevada Democrats over the course of the summer, with the only exception being SD 15 in Washoe County. In addition, recent polling has shown tight races in most of the contested Senate races, as well as a steady lead in the "generic ballot" statewide. So all in all, the big picture still looks brighter than some pundits think.

Need proof? Take a look below.

Clark County

SD 5
Henderson- Green Valley, Silverado Ranch, Old Henderson

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 42%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 45%

Voter Registration: +3.70% Democratic

Race Rating: Tossup

Early on, Kirk was seen by many pundits as at least a slight favorite (despite the partisan numbers) because of his strong fundraising. However, he was ultimately forced to spend in the primary. That gave Democrat and Former State Senator Joyce Woodhouse (who entered just this year, after Senator Shirley Breeden announced her retirement) a chance to catch up on fundraising... And get a head start on persuading voters in the field.

So far, Woodhouse has been working extra hard in the field, including canvassing herself, leaving signed lit at doors (where no one answered), and going the extra mile to be extra visible in the community. That's probably why the Senate Democratic Caucus internal poll had her leading 47-43 (and even the Senate GOP internal could only muster a 44-37 Kirk lead). I'm still waiting to see what kind of field work Kirk's campaign will do, but so far it just looks like he has a bare bones team of canvassers passing out "Generic Republican" fliers. While Kirk will probably get some high profile help in the home stretch (he did just snag the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce endorsement), it's still unclear how he intends to counter what's increasingly looking like a "perfect storm" of strong Democratic field work, additional union field efforts, and the Obama campaign & state party efforts to expand the Democratic electorate.

SD 6
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 53%
Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 52%
R Reid (D) 44%

Voter Registration: +4.49% Democratic

Race Rating: Tossup

In June, some Democratic insiders were starting to worry about this seat potentially slipping away. After all, Benny Yerushalmi scored a weak 56% in the Democratic Primary against "some dude" who spent $0 (!!!) on his campaign. Meanwhile, Republican Mark Hutchison was reveling in the spotlight as
"Mr. Take Down Obamacare"... And as someone several big business lobbyists seemed to be rallying behind.

Yet over the summer, the Democratic registration edge here swelled swelled to nearly 4.5%. And apparently, Yerushalmi seems to do better in internal polling than most had expected. While this may still be a tough seat for Democrats to hold, all may not be lost here.

SD 9
Enterprise- Rhodes Ranch, Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 50%
R Reid (D) 46%

Voter Registration: +5.61% Democratic

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

So State Senate Republican Leader Michael Roberson got his way in the end after all... Or did he? Mari St. Martin will indeed be the GOP nominee here. However, that's coming at a very steep price. While Brent Jones failed to upset on Tuesday, his "tea party" fueled opposition to St. Martin and Roberson succeeded in damaging the former Nevada Republican Party spokesperson's public image. In branding St. Martin as a "reckless party girl", they reminded voters of their Former Senator turned Maxim model (Elizabeth Halseth). And in the end, that does nothing but further weaken Team Red in this seat that redistricting first put into play.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Justin Jones breezed through his primary, raised over $130,000 so far this year, and has been working the field like crazy. In addition, Democrats' voter registration advantage jumped over the course of the summer. Even the Republicans' own internal poll had Justin Jones leading! On top of all this, there have been no reports of any field being done by and/or for Mari St. Martin. Add this all up, and it looks like this seat is slipping away from the Republicans' grasp more quickly than anyone had originally expected.

SD 18
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Angle (R) 50%
H Reid (D) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 38%

Voter Registration: +2.38% Republican

Race Rating: Tossup

Normally, this kind of seat is incredibly difficult for Democrats to win. However, a "near perfect storm" has put flipping this seat into the realm of possibility.

First off, the North had to give up a Senate seat. Secondly, Democrats scored big time when Kelli Ross, local businesswoman and wife of Las Vegas City Council Member Steve Ross, decided to run here. And finally, they've been helped by the ugly Republican infighting spilling over to local races.

Still, Roberson approved candidate Scott Hammond survived the primary... And that part isn't sweet music to Democrats' ears. In this primary, Roberson got to breathe a big sigh of relief.

However, Assembly Member Hammond now has a bigger task ahead in fighting for his promotion in the general. And since Kelli Ross has managed to thread the needle in preventing the Democratic base from throwing her overboard (she survived her own primary challenge from progressive favorite Donna Schlemmer) while maintaining her appeal to independent and crossover Republican voters, she can't be counted out. This is likely still a close race that Republicans will have to fight hard to win.


Washoe County

SD 15
Reno- Caughlin Ranch, Northwest, West Downtown

US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
H Reid (D) 54%
Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Sandoval (R) 57%
R Reid (D) 37%

Voter Registration: +1.92% Republican

Race Rating: Tossup

As usual, this seat is still on the razor's edge. The region is traditionally Republican, and Republicans are accustomed to dominating local elections. However, the region is trending Democratic and it's incredibly unlikely that Mitt Romney will do well here at the top of the ticket.

While Greg Brower has the edge in fundraising and voter registration, Sheila Leslie has the edge in field work and local goodwill in Reno. This is why the race is so close. Even the Senate GOP internal poll had a tight race, while the Senate Democratic internal had Leslie ahead by 5%. Above all the other races, this one will likely hinge on how Nonpartisans vote. And so far, Brower really hasn't done much to earn their support.

So what does the final count look like? Again, let me give the latest scoreboard, which is ranked highest to lowest in likelihood of Democratic win.

9 (Flip)
5 (Hold)
15 (Flip)
6 (Hold)
18 (Flip)

If I had to draw a line now, it would again fall just after 15. This would give Democrats 12 seats, or a net gain of 1 (GOP flips 6, but Dems flip 9 & 15). While I decided to keep the tilts the same for now, I'm already noticing some changes coming that could reshape the landscape this fall. While SD 18 should go Republican, Kelli Ross has so far proven to be a stronger campaigner than many had originally expected (and that's what's keeping it in Tossup Territory). And while Democrats have had trouble in SD 6, there may yet be hope for Benny Yerushalmi if he can pick up his ground game.

However, some things are constant. SD 9 continues to slip away from Republicans as Mari St. Martin does next to nothing to counter Justin Jones' strong field efforts. And even though Steve Kirk seemed to have the inside track early on, Joyce Woodhouse continues to stay in the game by running a nearly impeccable ground game. As I always like to say, field matters. And this fall, what happens in the field will likely determine the balance of power in Carson City next year.

RNC... W. T. F??!!

Honestly, I was going to say something about Mitt Romney's speech last night... But come on, Clint Eastwood totally upstaged him. Look, there's an empty chair!

“It has been an inspiration to not only hear from our leaders, but to meet like-minded Republicans who are fired up and ready to make a difference in this country,” Dave Buell, a delegate and Washoe County Republican Party chairman, said Thursday on the last night of the convention.

“(The convention speakers) have inspired us to go out and make sure we win this election. I know how important Washoe is to Nevada and how important Nevada is to winning this election,” Buell said.

Yes, he really said that (to The RGJ). And yes, this is coming from "The Renegade County Party" that's seeking a divorce from "The Renegade State Party". And oh my Gaga, is that an empty chair??!!

In so many ways, truth is stranger than fiction. Yesterday, some progressives in Las Vegas decided to celebrate Mitt Romney's G-O-TEA coronation with an extra special "wedding". You just have to see it to believe it.







And here's some video from KSNV.



So what was that about? Oh, it's just a reminder of Mitt Romney's "private sector" experience, Mitt Romney's economic priorities, and Mitt Romney's love for "billionaire bailouts". Fortunately for them, Sheldon Adelson's posse wasn't around to "rough them up". They did it at The Venetian, after all.

Now coming around full circle, I can finally start to understand why Clint Eastwood was allowed to argue with an empty chair. Since Mitt Romney doesn't really have a convincing message of his own, the only way he can win is by convincing us that we must get rid of this "evil, COMMUNIST, un-American!!!!" Barack Obama. Basically, Romney is running as "Generic Republican" against the teabaggers' caricature of President Obama. While Eastwood's deranged rant still reeks of nonsense, at least his episode becomes somewhat understandable when viewed from this lens.

It seems like the Romney campaign truly believes he can win just by being "Not Obama"... That is, not that scary caricature of Obama that teabaggers love to yell & scream about. But what happens when we dwell some more on who Mitt Romney is and what he does? That's what the Romney campaign fears. And that's why we saw that "wedding" at The Venetian yesterday. If working families can't trust Mitt Romney when he promises to "fix the economy", what does he have left to campaign on?

An empty chair?

So This Is What He Thinks "Freedom" Means

Wow. I guess Sheldon Adelson and his family have learned quite a bit since setting up shop in Macau. Keep it "klassy", Nevada G-O-TEA money man!

MIKE BURKE: Well, we were up on the fifth floor of the Tampa Bay Times Forum. This is the site of the Republican National Convention. And Hany Massoud, our cameraperson, and I—we spent most of the day walking along the hallways where the corporate suites are, you know, trying to find politicians and campaign donors and various other people to speak with. Near the end of the evening, we were walking down the hall, where we see Sheldon Adelson, who of course has played a critical role in this year’s election. He’s already donated tens of millions of dollars, first to Newt Gingrich’s campaign, then to Mitt Romney’s campaign. And so, we attempted to ask him a question, and we got two questions in.

And then what happened, it just—it really shocked me. A woman that was standing right behind Sheldon Adelson, who we later learned that apparently was his daughter, she stopped and then forcibly pushed herself back into me, where I lost my footing. And then, from there, she went over to Hany Massoud, our cameraperson, and actually grabbed the camera. And we were—she was only about two or three feet away from the suite where they were going to be watching the convention speeches. And she attempted to go into the suite, into the door, with the camera. Hany said something along the lines of, you know, "What you doing? This is our camera." And then, at that point, she drops the camera on the ground, and you heard that sound. She goes into the suite, and there’s some commotion outside. We actually have some audiotape—I mean, it’s videotape, but it’s from Hany’s camera. And at that point, we weren’t sure if Hany’s camera was broken or not. And we actually still aren’t sure. I mean, it was—it forcibly fell on the ground. But we have some tape. I think it’s important to hear. It’s a little bit unclear at times who is speaking, but there’s two times in this tape where Sheldon Adelson’s daughter comes out from the suite and actually apologizes to us. And this, of course, is after several—

AMY GOODMAN: This is after she body-slams you, steps back into you?

MIKE BURKE: "Body slam" might be a bit—that might be a bit too much, but she definitely, you know, stopped and then went back with force.

AMY GOODMAN: Into your body?

MIKE BURKE: Right, in an attempt so that I could not ask a question of Sheldon Adelson, who, of course—I mean, regular viewers of Democracy Now! might know, he—very infrequently does he speak to the press. So, for us, it was a very rare chance to speak to such an influential figure.

That was "Democracy Now!" reporter Mike Burke speaking with independent journalist and Pacifica Radio's "Democracy Now!" host Amy Goodman about what happened to him when he just tried to ask Sheldon Adelson a few questions. Wow. Is this something, or what?

What's so disgustingly funny about this is that it highlights the radically changed playing field in this election. How did this reclusive multi-billionaire who makes his money off Las Vegas conventioneers, "reality TV professional partiers", and high rollers, as well as "The Macau Mafia" and the good graces of the "Communist" Chinese government, become such a central figure in so many campaigns throughout America? And especially since he's on a mission to deliver both The White House and Congress to Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan, don't "we the people" deserve to get some questions answered by his operation?

And the Republicans in Tampa actually have the nerve to whine about "lost liberty". So what exactly do they want to call this blatant attempt to silence the press and violate someone else's free speech rights? Remember this next time a G-O-TEA politician waxes poetic on "freedom" and "liberty".

A Study in Contrasts

Yesterday, The R-J's John L. Smith talked to Former Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury about what's happening at the RNC Convention... And specifically, what's going on with the Nevada delegation. He tried his best to show a brave face, but ultimately Woodbury admitted that there's virtually no chance of the "Ron Paul Revolutionaries" working alongside the rest of the party to secure a Mitt Romney victory.

Yet while Woodbury was sharing his woes with Smith, The Sun's Karoun Dermijian got an earful from another prominent Nevada Republican.

[Sharron] Angle “absolutely” sees the Ron Paul movement and the Tea Party movement that buoyed her 2010 Senate candidacy against Sen. Harry Reid as a natural political marriage — such a good match, in fact, that she thinks the Ron Paul movement’s recent successes validate her political legacy.

“In 2010, when I was running, everybody said ‘No, you’re too extreme,’” Angle said. “But now look, it’s where everybody is going.”

She mentioned specifically the push to audit the Fed, a rallying cry for the pro-Paul camp that they managed to get on the Republican platform last week. Angle had called for it in her 2010 campaign.

“She was ahead of her time,” Jeri Taylor-Swade said emphatically.

Oh yes — Taylor-Swade and Laurel Fee, publishers of Tea Party and Republicans Uniting Nevada Conservatives, or TRUNC, who double as Angle’s jubilant musketeers, were also present at this ladies’ room meeting. (I’m supposed to be catching up with them later so they can give me a copy of their latest issue of TRUNC.)

She's back! Oh yes, that's right. Sharron Angle caught Dermijian in the ladies' room, and she wanted The Sun reporter to remember that she can be just as extreme as Ron Paul! Surprisingly, she even spoke up in SUPPORT of what happened on Tuesday. Perhaps she sees the Paulistas as an essential component of her future political comeback?

Obviously, not all Nevada Republicans in Tampa agree with her.

“It’s very embarrassing,” rural county chairman Wes Rice told the Sun. “We just lied. We all promised to do what we were supposed to do and didn’t do it.”

Nevada wasn’t the only state whose delegates were itching to undo the new rules on representation the Republican National Convention’s rules committee adopted last week. And it wasn’t the only state whose delegates sought to ballot Ron Paul.

But it was the only state in which delegates broke their own rules, eschewing their obligation to vote 20-strong for Romney on the first ballot, instead throwing almost all the delegation’s weight to Paul.

“The spokesman last night really betrayed our state and our party,” said Bob List, former Nevada governor and current Republican national committeeman.

And this, again, is why Mitt Romney is worried about Nevada. With such a large portion of his own party still resisting his candidacy, how again is Romney supposed to "rally the conservative base" to win? It just goes to show how the Nevada GOP is still in seriously dire straits.

From the "No Shit, Sherlock" Department...

Seriously, is any one surprised by this? Any one?

In her morning announcements, Nevada RNC committeewoman Heidi Smith announced she had free tickets to HomoCon, the convention party thrown for Republican gays and lesbians, and asked who in the crowded breakfast ballroom wanted them.

You could have heard a pin drop.

“Any one?” Smith asked, looking around the room, as she gave more details about the affair –Tuesday night, until 2 a.m., free, fun?

Still crickets.

Finally someone spoke up.

“I’ll take ‘em,” called out Carl Bunce from the back of the room, getting up and making a broad stride up to the podium to grab a ticket. “Those guys know how to party.”

Vice-chair James Smack then also got up to ask for and claim a ticket.

But though the ice was broken, and though Smith had more tickets to offer, the requests stopped there.

Must we be reminded of this?



And of this?

And of this?

Though this year’s Democratic Platform is the most pro-LGBT in history, complete with full support for marriage equality,the Republican Platform is set to be as anti-LGBT as ever, according to drafts approved by subcommittees Monday. Despite Log Cabin Republicans’ hopes that the language would include at least an allusion to “dignity and respect” for gay people, R. Clarke Cooper conceded that the end result is “bad with a capital ‘B.’” Tony Perkins, of the anti-gay hate group the Family Research Council, took personal credit for drafting the anti-equality language, boasting that platform drafting leaders Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) were “friends of FRC.”

This gets back to something I was alluding to yesterday. Even though Republican leaders want to make it seem like they're now a "diverse and inclusive party", reality just doesn't sync with them. Even Mitt Romney himself has basically conceded that his base is overwhelmingly old, white, and straight (and majority male on top of all that), and that his only plausible path to victory lies in fueling racial tension.

So we shouldn't be surprised that the G-O-TEA also wants to slap around LGBTQ families at least one more time in hopes of riding "the bigotry train" to victory this fall. However, they have a problem now. The country is changing, and especially younger voters are not being "turned on" by all this idiocy. It remains to be seen if the Romney-Heller-Heck "All Exclusive Strategy" will really work here in Nevada or in other swing states this fall.

And no, accepting free "HomoCon" tickets won't make up for celebrating discrimination against our families. Sorry, Nevada G-O-TEA. But seriously, why can't you hear the 21st century knocking at your door?

No Se Puede, Sandoval

Even though teabaggers forced Mitt Romney to snub Brian Sandoval by leaving him off his "VP Short List", Sandoval still desperately wants to be accepted and become "a player" on the national G-O-TEA stage. That has to be why he's willing to flip-flop so obviously and ridiculously.

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert and Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval were among five governors who sought flexibility for the states on alternative ways to achieve the law’s goal of moving recipients from welfare to work. In July, the Obama administration offered states the opportunity to receive a waiver from the 1996 law’s work participation requirements under the condition that more recipients find jobs. If not, they said, the waivers will be denied or rescinded. [...]

“Nevada hasn’t requested a waiver and has no intention of requesting one,” his spokeswoman Mary-Sarah Kinner told the Las Vegas Sun. “The letter was not a request for a waiver; it was a request to explore the possibilities.”

In August 2011, Sandoval’s Health and Human Services director approached the Obama administration: “Nevada is very interested in working with your staff to explore program waivers that have the potential to encourage more cooperative relationships among the state agencies engaged in economic stimulus through job creation, employment skill attainment and gainful employment activities,” wrote Michael Willden. “Nevada is also interested in exploring performance measures that endure program accountability and also increase the probability of families becoming self-sufficient by providing meaningful data as to the services or combination of services with best outcomes.”

In response to an inquiry by TPM, a Sandoval aide said in an email, “We have not researched Romney’s push to repeal the HHS action, so we’re not able to provide you more.”

Well, this kind of behavior isn't new for Brian Sandoval. Still, it shows why his speech at the GOP Convention last night was so awkward.

However, this flip-flop is different from the others. In fact, it's downright disgusting. Here's why.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Sandoval actually agreed to be part of an effort to showcase Mitt Romney's "new campaign strategy" of peddling lies and amping up the race baiting. Instead of putting Nevada's best interest in mind, he abandoned his earlier efforts to make welfare reform work for Nevada just so he can stay in Romney's good graces... And so Romney can continue to peddle lies about President Obama.

In many ways, what Sandoval agreed to do yesterday is far more disgusting than the silly Ron Paul circus put on by Nevada's delegation during the roll call vote. Truly, neither is beneficial to "small d democracy". But while the latest Paulista temper tantrum episode is rooted in a fight over arcane rules (that they might not have really broken, even if they weren't representing the will of most GOP caucus goers), what Brian Sandoval agreed to do represents the bottom of the barrel of contemporary American politics. It just goes to show that the racially toned dog whistles of the past haven't really gone away completely, and that certain ambitious politicians are even willing to ditch sound policy in order to push such rotten politics.

Nevada GOP Flips Off Romney... AGAIN!

It's official now. Here's what The R-J's Laura Myers just tweeted.

NV delegation defies #gop2012 cvn casts 17 votes to nominate @ronpaul, 5 for @mittromney, 5 abstentions. (was supposed to be 20 for Romney)

Consider this Ron Paul's revenge. Romney was getting close to officially securing the nomination... And Nevada screwed it up! It wasn't a pretty sight on CSPAN. But then again, neither was that last minute attempt to game the nomination system.

Ah, what a great way to close this sordid affair... Or is it case closed?

August Voter Registration Trends in Washoe County

Yesterday, we examined recent voter registration trends in Clark County. Today, we're heading north. Now that Washoe County also has new voter registration statistics available, we'll be able to see what's happened in Reno earlier than originally expected.

So what's been happening in Reno? Here are the big stories:

- Countywide, Democrats improved slightly on their July numbers. Washoe Dems went from a 1.63% deficit last month to a 1.59% deficit now. They're still slightly behind Republicans, but they're slowly catching up.

- In the big marquee Legislature race that is the SD 15 State Senate election, Republicans actually went from a 1.89% advantage last month to a 1.92% advantage now. While Republicans have been falling behind Democrats in nearly all the swing districts in Clark County, this newly swingy Washoe seat has been a bright spot for them, as it's mostly been stable there. And in fact, Republicans even got a tiny boost in their ranks here this month.

- And briefly jumping back to the statewide numbers, the "Team Nevada" "Shadow GOP" spokesperson actually admitted to The R-J yesterday that Nevada Democrats' voter registration advantage is probably north of 54,000 voters now. Even with little change in Washoe, some surprising gains in the rural areas, along with the exceptionally strong Clark County numbers, continue to give Democrats a big boost statewide.

But getting back to Washoe County, should Democrats be worried? Not really, even though they do have more work cut out for them. Let me explain.

There's a reason why Washoe Republicans want a divorce from the state party. You see, they tend to cooperate with "the establishment"... Or perhaps, you can say they're better controlled by "the establishment" than the "Ron Paul Revolutionaries" that catapulted their way from the Clark County GOP to take over the state GOP. So the Washoe GOP has often been able to go toe to toe against Democrats there, even while the Clark GOP keeps tumbling down here.

However, the electorate of Washoe County is also remarkably different from Clark's in that Nonpartisans tend to lean more Democratic while Republicans have a larger than normal pool of moderates who can be peeled off when "the right kind of Republican" is on the ballot. And when that's combined with an enthusiastic Democratic base there, wild things can happen.

So all in all, Washoe County still looks mostly stable. Republicans are holding onto a registration edge for now, but we'll have to see how far that ultimately takes them once early voting starts.

Tempest in Tampa?

Nevada's own "Governor Sunny", Brian Sandoval, is set to take part in tonight's lineup of speakers at the first full day of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. Yet even though Sandoval seems to be going out of his way to deliver a speech that will get the teabaggers hooting and hollering, he may ultimately be overshadowed by another group of Nevadans. Oh, yes. That's right. They're still there.

Rep. Ron Paul’s delegates are trying to mount a floor fight over new GOP rules designed to limit the ability of insurgent presidential candidates to amass delegates to future Republican conventions.

They are getting help from other delegates, though it is unclear whether they can rally enough support to challenge the rules on the floor of the convention Tuesday. [...]

“It’s so heavily scripted. This is not the forum in which they want to air the proverbial dirty laundry,” said Juliette Jordal, a Paul delegate from Minnesota. [...]

“A lot of people who get elected as delegates and alternates to the convention are people who have been paying their dues for years and years,” said Stavros Mendros, a Paul delegate from Maine. “I think it’s a big mistake for the RNC to make.”

Last week, there were signs of strong discontent among Ron Paul's Island of Misfit Toys band of delegates. And now that Mitt Romney's campaign wants to change RNC rules to permanently transfer delegate selection powers from state parties (which allow for some kind of election) to Presidential Campaigns (which will be more interested in hand-picking certain allies). It looks like Paul's troops are picking up allies in this fight, but it's still unclear as to how far they can ultimately go before Romney's choreographers aides knock the "Paulista Revolutionaries" off the program.

However, Paul's troops refuse to go away quietly. And actually, they've already been causing trouble for the entire Nevada delegation. For one, the Nevada delegation has been placed in "the nosebleed section" of the convention center. And to make things worse, the big name G-O-TEA politicians are staying away from them. And since conventions are often defined by access and "schmoozing", it really hurts for the Romney alternates who wanted to enjoy the "pomp and circumstance" of the convention.

“Yes, I was elected an alternate (delegate), much to the dismay of some of the Ron Paul delegates,” former state Sen. Sue Lowden said before remarking that she and others who supported Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum in the primary have managed to move on.

While Paul’s supporters control the Nevada delegation, the alternates are almost all Romney supporters, meaning the two sides are roughly equal in force when it comes to activities off the actual convention floor.

It makes for some awkward encounters.

At a breakfast Monday, the delegates were polite to each other, but the tension was evident. One Romney supporter insinuated someone had “walked off” with a batch of guest passes to the convention hall. A Paul supporter accused a Romney supporter of trying to “take over the delegation.”

Typically, such breakfasts are headlined by a guest speaker, a party superstar or at least an elected official. But most of Nevada’s top elected Republicans have steered clear of the convention.

U.S. Sen. Dean Heller and Rep. Joe Heck remained in Nevada.

Gov. Brian Sandoval is in Tampa, but only because he will deliver a primetime speech before the convention. He apparently hasn’t scheduled any time with the Nevada delegation.

“You won’t see him before this group,” Lowden said. “They’ve booed him. Why would he come here?

Yes, that was indeed "Chicken Lady" Sue Lowden throwing a temper tantrum over the Paulistas ruining her party. I'll try to contain my laughter over Lowden trying to remain politically relevant for a moment to make this point, so here goes. While conventions have become more about the "pomp and circumstance" and schmoozing and hot parties in recent election cycles, they are technically supposed to be about defining who makes a political party and what the party believes in. This is what continues to motivate Ron Paul's followers to make their "last stand" in Tampa this week.

And that's what should really scare the RNC. Even though Paul's troops may only make up a small faction inside the convention center, they represent a much larger and more serious problem that looms outside the convention hall. As the G-O-TEA becomes increasingly overwhelmingly old, white, straight, and male, Republican insiders are starting to worry about the future beyond this election. While they're letting Mitt Romney try "one more time" a strategy of winning by way of exclusively appealing to older white (and mostly straight & male) voters, they know this strategy provides immense risk when it comes to paving the path to future relevancy for Republicans in an increasingly diverse country.

Even though Ron Paul himself also has limited appeal, it can't be ignored that his band of supporters looks awfully younger and at least a tad bit more diverse than Mitt Romney's... And for that matter, Rick Santorum's and Newt Gingrich's respective supporters. So perhaps Sue Lowden shouldn't try too hard to make Ron Paul's Nevada delegates feel so unwelcome. If she and Romney's operatives succeed too much, then Romney himself may ultimately live to regret it.

First Look at August Voter Registration Trends

Late last month, it looked like Nevada Republicans weren't having good luck with their "voter registration project". And judging by the latest Clark County numbers, it looks like certain G-O-TEA consultants are about to cry into their coffee some more.

Here's what we now know:

- It's now official. Democrats have regained the lead in the NV-03 voter rolls. Specifically, NV-03 has flipped from a 0.24% Republican registration lead last month to a 0.14% Democratic registration advantage today.

- In the Clark County portion of NV-04, Democrats' registration advantage widened again, this time from 14.09% to 14.67%. We'll have to wait for the full statewide numbers to be released before analyzing the trend for the entire district. But so far, this looks good for Steven Horsford.

- And in the critical State Senate races that will determine the balance of power in Carson City next year, Democrats received even more good news. In the Henderson-Green Valley based SD 5, Democrats' registration edge rose from 3.36% to 3.70%. In the Las Vegas-Summerlin based SD 6, Democrats' edge grew from 3.93% to 4.49%. In the Southwest Valley based SD 9, Democrats' advantage grew from 5.06% to 5.61%. And in the Northwest Las Vegas centered SD 18, Republicans' edge shrunk from 2.60% to 2.38%. Again, we'll have to wait a few more days to see what kind of movement happened in SD 15 in Washoe County. But so far in looking at the Clark County numbers, Democrats have strengthened their hand when it comes to the race to control the (State) Senate next year.

And countywide, Democrats grew their advantage from 11.88% last month to 12.39% now. Again, this just goes to show how much working the field really matters. In Southern Nevada, Democrats continue to gain in voter registration. By next week, we should know what the full picture looks like statewide.

How the West Will Be Won: All About NV-03

Last week, we discussed the the stark contrast in focus between the parties here in Nevada. Long story short: While Republican operatives have been focusing more on spinning the media, Democrats have had a laser like focus on field organizing. Today, I wanted us to go in depth some more and explore the heart of Nevada Democrats' field efforts. And as we start our series on "How The West Will Be Won" this fall, I figured there's no better way to start than by examining the field campaign in what may be the most critical Congressional race in the country.

Last Saturday, the Nevada State Democratic Party packed its NV-03 field office with volunteers for a weekend phone bank. In addition to the crew of volunteers, NV-03 Democratic nominee John Oceguera came by to greet them and thank them for all their work in winning the election... And not just for him.







Believe it or not, my home Congressional District will play a huge role in determining the fate of President Obama's second term. For one, this is a district that Obama himself must win in order to win Nevada and our 6 Electoral Votes this fall. And since NV-03 is typically such a bellwether of a swing district, this is also an area where Shelley Berkley must win in order to win the US Senate election here. And since President Obama urgently needs more Democratic allies in Congress next year in order to actually have a Congress that's willing to work for the nation's best interest, he urgently needs for Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera to win alongside him here in Nevada.

So why is NV-03 so important? Basically, we're a unique mix of older (for Nevada, at least) suburbs that have been aging gracefully and newer suburbs that came into existence during the height of the 2000's "Real Estate Bubble". The older suburbs, like Green Valley and the original neighborhoods of Summerlin, were once considered Republican strongholds. But over time, they've become more politically balanced while the newer Southwest Valley suburbs were incredibly diverse from the get-go. Really, NV-03 is the vanguard when it comes to demographic changes here in Nevada. That's why it's become such a critical bellwether.

So the stakes are incredibly high here in The Silver State as we approach autumn. And that's why Nevada Democrats are kicking their "field machine" into high gear. At Saturday's phone bank, at least 1,000 dials were made by the time John Oceguera arrived. And while the volunteers were making dials, the canvass department was recruiting more people to work the field and knock doors.

Every once in a while, there's discussion on the accuracy of most public polling of Nevada. Let me explain why this dilemma has emerged in the last 3 election cycles (2008, 2010, and now 2012). Since 2005, Nevada Democrats have been investing in growing a strong field operation. While activities like voter registration outside the neighborhood DMV and spending a lovely Saturday afternoon making political phone calls don't always seem "sexy", they're incredibly effective when it comes to winning elections. And as Democrats register new voters, re-register voters who have moved since 2008, call them to remind them of the upcoming election, then knock on their doors to make sure they vote, Nevada Democrats are "expanding the electorate" beyond the confines of what most national pollsters and media pundits expect. This is exactly how Harry Reid defied the (national media's pre-set) odds and won reelection in 2010, and this is what Shelley Berkley and John Oceguera are counting on now.

Yet while all of this is happening, Nevada Republicans continue to surround themselves with chaos. On one end, Mitt Romney continues to explain his "bromance" with Paul Ryan... And cause headaches for Republican Congressional campaigns here in Nevada and elsewhere. Meanwhile, the actual Nevada Republican Party continues its slow-motion implosion as it continues to debate the burning issue of... Ron Paul. And with even "The Shadow GOP" caught in an ugly "Bus Wreck", even some Republican insiders have wondered if they can put together a field operation in time to salvage Dean Heller and Joe Heck this fall.

Again, this election will most likely be won or lost in the field. And again, NV-03 may very well be THE key swing district for both the state and the country. So field really does matter here. And in the end, Nevada Democrats' field operation may be that one "X Factor" that manages to make the difference in determining the balance of power in Washington (DC) next year.

Why Ron Paul's "Movement" Still Matters

Remember when we discussed this back in May?

As much as some grassroots folks on the left and the right love to see epic ideological battles unfold at party conventions and purge all "unsavory moderates" out of their respective parties, the fact of the matter is that doing that gets us no closer to winning elections. (If anything, that HURTS efforts to win elections.) While it's always important to promote the values we believe in and hold fast to them, we can't punish political parties for focus on party building while perhaps shirking "ideology enforcement" duties. After all, the first responsibility of a political party is to build the infrastructure necessary to win elections. [...]

And this is why Orrin Johnson is panicking. Ron Paul's supporters care deeply for their libertarian beliefs, and they're set to accept nothing less than full fealty to those beliefs. But in pursuing complete ideological purity, they're also set to lose a whole lot of elections because they simply don't care about that stuff. This is why Nevada Republicans are in such dire straits. And it should serve as an important lesson to all the rest of us trying to balance ideological wishes with political reality.

So far, this truly has come to full fruition. And it's happened in a way that's truly scared Nevada Republican "elites". And now, we're set to finally experience the climax of this epic saga.

Putting a candidate’s name up for nomination is not the same as voting for the ultimate nominee. Paul’s supporters would have to persuade 1,144 delegates to switch their vote to take the nomination away from Romney.

Given the fact that Romney has won an overwhelming majority of the delegates, and given the party’s requirement that results in early states are binding, that’s unlikely.

In Nevada, for example, 20 of the 28 delegates are required to vote for Romney as the ultimate nominee, even if the individual delegate personally supports Paul.

Still, Paul supporters will not acknowledge defeat.

“We’ve been communicating with some other Ron Paul delegates. ... Anything’s possible,” said Carl Bunce, Paul’s former Nevada campaign chairman. “That’s the way conventions work. Right now, the Romney campaign is making sure his (Paul’s) name doesn’t get on the ballot. But if his name gets on there and Rand speaks, and Ron speaks, people wake up. I’ve seen it happen.”

Oh yes, that's right. Ron Paul's intensely devoted fan club still can't give up their fantasy of Ron Paul becoming this year's Republican Presidential Nominee. Never mind that RNC leaders have already set up next week's GOP Convention in Tampa to be one giant coronation ceremony for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

Yet even though Ron Paul has no realistic chance of wresting the G-O-TEA nomination away from Mitt Romney, Romney's campaign keeps running scared. Romney and RNC staffers have had to negotiate with Ron Paul loyalists, giving them a prime time speaking role for US Senator (and son of Ron) Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), "The Most Conservative [National Party] Platform in Modern History", and even more concessions, just to convince them not to "ruin Willard's big moment". Yet despite all this, Ron Paul's Nevada troops refuse to concede this fight. And depending on how far they intend to take their quixotic quest in Tampa next week, it may cause yet another political headache for an ailing Romney campaign.

After all, a good chunk of the G-O-TEA base never really warmed up to Romney. They're only backing him now in hopes that "Favorite Son" Paul Ryan will end up serving as "The De Facto President" if Romney wins... Or becomes the favorite for the 2016 GOP Nomination if Romney doesn't. Even though Ron Paul's devotees represent "the fringe of the ('tea party') fringe", they may nonetheless remind America of just how brutal the G-O-TEA primary season was... To Mitt Romney's political fantasies and ambition.

And this is how Ron Paul and his "movement" have managed to remain relevant all this year.